College Football Picks 2022- National Championship Game 2021 (January 10th 2022)

The College Football season comes to a conclusion on Monday with two SEC teams competing for the right to be called National Champions.

Four of the last seven Champions have come out of the SEC and this is going to be the second time two from the same Conference are competing for the National honours (the only other time in the PlayOff era was also competed between the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide).

It has been a relatively successful season for the College Football Picks, although one more win in the National Championship Game would make it a good season. Coming away from a season with a profit can't be ignored, but there is a big difference between a winning and losing end to the 2021 season and that will be determined by the National Championship Game on Monday 10th January.

Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: The SEC Championship Game featured the same two teams that dominated the College Football PlayOff games in December and a rematch is set between the Georgia Bulldogs (13-1) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (13-1). Both teams won their Semi Final games without really feeling much pressure thanks to strong Defensive outings, and the familiarity with one another should make this a fascinating rematch.

Since the introduction of the College Football four team PlayOff, this is only the second time two teams from the same Conference will be facing each other for the National Championship title. The last time was in the 2017 season when the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide faced one another too, but on that occasion the teams had not played one another in the SEC Championship Game before meeting in the National Championship Game too.

This time the rematch is taking place less than a month since the teams met in Atlanta in a Championship Game that saw the Alabama Crimson Tide pull away for the upset win. The Bulldogs led early as the relatively big favourite, but the Crimson Tide dominated the middle of the SEC Championship Game, although the layers still have Georgia down as the favourite in this National Championship Game too.

We have crossed one key number since the last game between these two SEC rivals, but the Alabama Crimson Tide are still receiving as much as a Field Goal start and that looks important. They have dominated the Georgia Bulldogs in recent times and Kirby Smart has yet to get the better of Nick Saban in his seven seasons as Head Coach in Athens.

That has to be playing a factor in this National Championship Game considering the experience Nick Saban has in winning these big games, although you do have to imagine that the Bulldogs players have learned plenty when losing the SEC Championship Game. That was a chance for Georgia to not only pick up the Conference Championship, but it might also have been enough to eliminate the Crimson Tide before the PlayOff teams were selected and the Bulldogs may have missed a trick.

Georgia will need to get more out of the Offensive unit if they are going to win this National Championship- they struggled to find consistency running the ball agains the Crimson Tide in the first meeting and I think that is going to be a huge challenge for them considering how well the Alabama Defensive Line have played down the stretch.

It puts a lot of pressure on Stetson Bennett at Quarter Back and his two Interceptions thrown in the SEC Championship Game defeat to the Crimson Tide was a big factor in the loss. The Quarter Back was under pressure from the Alabama pass rush on that day too thanks to the inability to find consistent running lanes and I think Bennett could be facing something similar in this National Championship Game too.

Turnovers are bound to be key in this game and it was a clean game from Bryce Young in the SEC Championship Game that underlined the strong performance from the Quarter Back on the day. Like the Bulldogs, Alabama struggled to find consistency running the ball, but Bryce Young was very good at Quarter Back as he piled up 421 yards with three passing Touchdowns.

I think there is an opportunity for Bryce Young to back up that performance after seeing one or two holes in the Georgia Secondary in their last few games, holes he exposed really well in the SEC Championship Game. Bryce Young is someone who I believe can handle the pressure that comes with facing a pass rush more effectively than Stetson Bennett and I think the Crimson Tide will be highly motivated by being set as the underdog again.

The underdog is now 7-1 against the spread in the last eight games between these teams.

Alabama are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as the underdog and I do think the team will look at the odds and wonder why they are not being given more respect having won the SEC Championship Game as handily as they did.

Kirby Smart has a very strong record against the spread when Coaching with revenge as Georgia will have after losing last month to Alabama. They blew out Florida with revenge earlier this season, but the rematch with Alabama last month was also a revenge setting for the Bulldogs and there is the pressure of being a favourite in this one which may just weigh heavy on the Georgia sidelines.

MY PICK: Alabama Crimson Tide + 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Bowl Games: 13-11, + 1.66 Units (24 Units Staked, + 6.92% Yield)

Week 14: 4-5, - 1.52 Units (9 Units Staked, - 16.89% Yield)

Week 13: 4-5, - 1.36 Units (9 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

Week 12: 6-2, + 3.46 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.25% Yield)

Week 11: 5-4, + 0.73 Units (9 Units Staked, + 8.11% Yield)

Week 10: 4-5, - 1.36 Units (9 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

Week 9: 5-3, + 1.25 Units (8 Units Staked, + 15.63% Yield)

Week 8: 3-5, - 2.57 Units (8 Units Staked, - 32.13% Yield)

Week 7: 5-4, + 0.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.56% Yield)

Week 6: 3-3, - 0.27 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 5: 5-6, - 1.41 Units (11 Units Staked, - 12.82% Yield)

Week 4: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)

Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)

Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)

2021 Season: 78-68-1, + 3.20 Units (147 Units Staked, + 2.18% Yield)

College Football National Championship Game Pick (January 11th)

The Bowl Picks worked out pretty well over the last month, but the College Football PlayOffs were another thing altogether.

One Pick I got completely wrong, while I was undone by a backdoor cover in the other. With the National Championship wrapping up the 2020 season, I am hoping for better.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Two blow out wins in the College Football PlayOff Semi Finals have taken the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ohio State Buckeyes into the National Championship Game. Both teams are unbeaten, although the Crimson Tide knocked off the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as a big favourite a couple of weeks ago.

Things were different for the Buckeyes who were an underdog against the Clemson Tigers, but rammed back taunts of not being considered in the top ten for best teams in the nation when crushing them. The Ohio State Buckeyes never looked like losing, let alone failing to cover, but the layers are not convinced that they will be able to keep up with the Crimson Tide who have looked like one of the stronger editions of what has become a regularly National Championship contender.

There are some factors at play which are hard to really gauge as to how important they could potentially become- the Buckeyes have had a number of Covid-19 outbreaks throughout the 2020 season and are rumoured to be suffering another which had some believing the Championship Game could have to be moved, but they are going to go on Monday as far as it sounds.

Ohio State have shown they can manage those outbreaks and not lose any momentum, but there is also the injury suffered by Quarter Back Justin Fields in the win over Clemson Tigers which may limit him. On the other hand you do have to wonder if the Buckeyes are peaking at the right time with a short season meaning they are heading towards the peak of the performance compared with the Alabama Crimson Tide who have already come through a number of very tough games to remain unbeaten.

The Crimson Tide have won 12 games this season compared with Ohio State's 7 games and so there is more wear and tear on their team, but Nick Saban is not going to be concerning himself about excuses nor giving Ohio State any bulletin board material like Dabo Swinney did before the Clemson Tigers were beaten very easily.

The injury to Justin Fields could be critical because there is a feeling he won't be able to run as much as he might have done if at full health. It did not slow him down against the Tigers, but the Alabama Crimson Tide won't have to make in-game adjustments to Fields as they are likely going to anticipate him being at his best, but also planning for how they will defend against Fields if he is not at 100%.

I still think you have to respect Justin Fields who will be keen to remind people why he was considered one of the top two Quarter Backs coming out into the NFL Draft. Some have suggested he might have slipped behind Zach Wilson in the scouting reports, but Justin Fields can turn all that talk on its head with a strong performance in the National Championship Game even if the Buckeyes were to come up short.

As well as the Crimson Tide have played all season, we have seen the likes of Ole Miss and Florida have success throwing the ball down the field against this Secondary. Justin Fields has the talent around him to have success in this game too and I think there will be chances for the Buckeyes to move the ball, although Alabama will be well Coached and there is no less talent here that can make some big plays for the favourites.

Mobility is going to be the key for Fields as he looks to make sure he can stay away from the much respected Alabama pass rush that should be able to get through this Ohio State Offensive Line. If Justin Fields can at least move better than he looked like he could in the second half against the Clemson Tigers, it will be a big boost for Ohio State who will be looking to dominate the line of scrimmage as the did against the Tigers.

After establishing the run in the manner they did against the Tigers, I have to give the Ohio State Offensive Line enough respect to think they could so the same against Alabama and that despite how strong the Crimson Tide Defensive Line has been up front. It could be all important to the outcome on this side of the ball as any one-dimensional Offense is going to have problems against Alabama, but Ohio State should be able to make this a competitive game.

The line of scrimmage is massively important on both sides of the ball, because the Buckeyes are coming in off a game in which they really forced Clemson to lean on Trevor Lawrence. Now Lawrence may be going into the NFL as the next great generational Quarter Back, but the Buckeyes were able to slow down the Tigers without the balance they would usually have relied upon and I think that is going to be very important for them here.

Alabama have quality talent throughout their skill positions and it is difficult to believe the Crimson Tide will see Najee Harris shut down completely, but I do think he will have to work for his yards. The question is whether I believe Ohio State can shut down the run to the extent they did against Clemson? Realistically I do not think that will happen with the talent Alabama have on their Offensive Line, but the fact I have to ask the question means it could see the Crimson Tide needing Mac Jones to loosen the line of scrimmage.

Mac Jones has played so well in 2020 and I do think some fans will have forgotten about Tua Tagovailoa, but no one is going to dispute the amount of talent he has to throw to. DeVonta Smith won the Heisman Trophy and the Wide Receiver looks like one that is going to have a huge impact at the next level, while Alabama may also be boosted by the return of Jaylen Waddle who has been listed as Questionable.

The Buckeyes Secondary has given up some big numbers throughout the season, but they have also been able to make big plays to turn momentum when they have needed to. One concern has to be the lack of consistent pass rush pressure and that may give Mac Jones the kind of time that will make Alabama very difficult to stop when you think of the kind of players he will be throwing to in this game.

I think Alabama will win this game, but you can't ignore the possibility of a backdoor cover.

Having more than a Touchdown of points with a team as good as Ohio State does look appealing and they are 19-7 against the spread in their last twenty-six games as the underdog. That includes winning outright against the Tigers in the College Football PlayOffs while Ohio State are also 6-2 against the spread in their last eight post-season games.

I was undone by a backdoor cover when the Alabama Crimson Tide crushed the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, while the Crimson Tide have not covered in their last four National Championship Games.

However Alabama are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games as the favourite and I do think they are the superior team and won't underestimate Ohio State. I have a feeling that Clemson did that to some extent and motivated the Buckeyes by disrespecting them in the build up to that PlayOff Game, but Nick Saban won't do that and his team look to be stronger than Ohio State.

I expect the Buckeyes issues in the Secondary to be highlighted here and they may not have as much joy across the lines of scrimmage as they did against Clemson. Justin Fields may show why he is considered one of the top players coming out in the next NFL Draft, but Mac Jones has the talent around him to out-perform Fields and lead the Crimson Tide to another National Championship title.

MY PICK: Alabama Crimson Tide - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

College Football National Championship Game Pick 2016 (Monday 11th January)

The entire College Football season has come down to the final game of the season as the National Championship is decided between a team that has plenty of experience against one that is surprisingly unbeaten.

I think this is the National Championship we deserve to see before another seven month wait to see it all happen again.

The best of luck to both teams, I hope they can produce a classic.


Alabama Crimson Tide v Clemson Tigers Pick: The Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers came through their Play Off 'Semi Finals' on New Year's Eve to reach the National Championship Game in Phoenix. Out of the two teams, the Clemson Tigers certainly had the more impressive win as the underdog against the Oklahoma Sooners, but you can't take anything away from the way Alabama dominated the Michigan State Spartans later that same day.

While there will be plenty of Sooners fans who believe their team deserved to be here, I think most neutral fans would be happy with the two teams we have competing this National Championship Game.

The layers have given the edge to Alabama, but I am not sure that Clemson don't feel the happiest when they are set as the underdog. Both teams will be unconcerned with how people view them and Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney will be looking to prepare their teams as best as possible for a huge game for both schools.

You won't be having to look too far to see some of the players that will be making an impact at the NFL level in the years to come and two of the top three Heisman Trophy finishers in action in this one. Which of the teams will be ready to take advantage of their Offensive weapons to win this game and take home the National Championship trophy?

It won't be a big surprise to Clemson as to what the Crimson Tide are going to want to do on Offense- they will look to establish the run and keep Quarter Back Jake Coker in third and manageable spots where he has thrived. Coker has been more than a game manager in recent games, but the key for Alabama is establishing the run through Derrick Henry and, to a lesser extent, Kenyan Drake.

Henry won the Heisman Trophy after rushing for over 2000 yards on the season and he will be given the rock plenty of times in this one even if it means wearing down the Clemson Defensive Line. The Tigers have been solid against the run, but not impenetrable and I think Henry and Drake will both have their successes to make sure Alabama are kept in manageable down and distance, which is hugely important to Coker.

That will also help negate a powerful Clemson pass rush, although the Tigers potentially will be missing Shaq Lawson on that front too, and allow Coker the time to make his plays. Being left in third and long will be tough for Alabama to convert on a regular basis with the pass rush Clemson have been able to get through the course of the season even if Lawson is out.

A few seasons ago we saw Johnny Manziel rip Alabama with his brand of a read Offense being able to make plays both with his arm and legs, and Deshaun Watson is more than capable of replicating that as the Clemson Quarter Back. Watson has over 3600 passing yards and 1000 rushing yards on the season, but Saban figured out Manziel the second time he played him and should be more prepared to find a way to slow down Watson in this one.

The big question for Clemson is are they going to be able to run the ball against Alabama who have been so strong against the run all season. Wayne Gallman and Watson both had over 1000 rushing yards on the season, but the Crimson Tide have given up just 2.3 yards per carry on the year and it could be the key to the whole game as to which Line wins that battle.

Shutting down the run has allowed Alabama to tee off on the pass rush in recent games, but Watson might be a little more elusive at Quarter Back than anyone they have seen. Watson's ability to move has meant the Offensive Line has looked good in pass protection, but this Crimson Tide Secondary has also played well through the course of the season and particularly over their last three games.

The turnover battle is going to be all important in these really big games and that is an area where I think Alabama also have the edge. Coker has had more success looking after the ball in the passing game, while fumbles have been an issue at times for the Clemson Tigers.

I love what the Tigers have achieved this season, but Alabama look incredibly strong and I think Saban's experience in the big game is another edge for the SEC Champions. I can see them wearing down the Clemson Tigers in the second half and their Defensive unit making a couple of big plays to slow down Deshaun Watson to help Alabama pull clear and take the National Championship trophy home yet again.

While I do think it will be close for a while, I expect Alabama to pull away in the second half and cover the spread.

MY PICK: Alabama Crimson Tide - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)