Monday is usually a quiet day in terms of tournament matches, but Tuesday is when a there is a lot of action to get through the day and it will all begin early in Dubai and go through to Delray Beach deep into the evening.
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games v Annika Beck: Samantha Stosur is turning 30 at the end of next month and that usually signals a downward trend in a player's performance, especially on the WTA Tour. Over the last twelve months, Stosur has been dropping down the Rankings and seems to be losing more matches that she isn't expected to in that time.
That means the layers are beginning to take fewer chances with her opponents and the prices have become more reasonable on Stosur who has been over-rated somewhat in recent months.
The first serve is still effective, but the second is becoming more attackable, but I am not sure Annika Beck is yet in a position to take advantage of those issues. Coming through the qualifiers would give Beck a good idea of the conditions she will be facing, while she has just celebrated her 20th birthday in the last couple of days after a decent performance in Doha last week too.
However, Beck is still looking to find her consistency on the Tour and I think that is where Stosur should still have a little too much in her locker and come through 64, 64.
Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: It has been a disappointing start to the season for Sabine Lisicki as she had to withdraw from Doha, the second tournament already in 2014 that she has to be withdraw from.
Now she faces an opponent that can frustrate her in Caroline Wozniacki, even if the Dane has shown little to suggest she will get back up the Rankings following her drop in the last eighteen months. Wozniacki lost a close match last week against Yanina Wickmayer, but she had her chances in that match and has the game that can give her the edge in this one.
The power will definitely come from the Lisicki side of the court, but she can be inconsistent at times and can go through poor runs of form that sees her drop a number of games in succession fairly rapidly.
I am also aware that Wozniacki's serve is not really something you can rely upon so she may lose a couple of breaks of serve at times, but I think she finds a way to come through this match 64, 64.
Angelique Kerber v Ana Ivanovic: Ana Ivanovic made a fast start to 2014 with a title win in Auckland and reaching the Quarter Final at the Australian Open where she did beat Serena Williams. However, I think a slight niggle affected her game in the loss to Eugenie Bouchard in that Quarter Final and she was a disappointing early loser in Doha last week.
Ivanovic didn't serve well in either match last week and she will have to do better against a player like Angelique Kerber who was still full of smiles and positive feeling despite losing in the Final at Doha on Sunday.
For most of the week, Kerber had been serving well and that may prove to be the difference between the two players in this match. Even the long week under her belt isn't enough to put me off Kerber as she has also won the last two matches against Ivanovic and I think she are more doubts about the latter's form.
It's a tough First Round match and hard to separate the two players on a level playing field, but I think Kerber has been serving better of the two players and will use that to win this match.
Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos: Both Leonardo Mayer and Albert Ramos are comfortable on the clay courts, but it is the former that is showing off the better form in recent weeks and I think he can progress in this First Round match.
Albert Ramos at least put a couple of wins in the bank last week in Buenos Aires which will help his confidence, but Leonard Mayer has reached a Final in the last couple of weeks and it is only Fabio Fognini that has proved too good for him.
Wins over the likes of Tommy Robredo will give Mayer the belief that he can have another decent week in what is always important tournaments for the players who want to move up the Rankings. There will be breaks of serve, but Mayer looks the one that has more form and won the last meeting between these players comfortably last summer.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: He had lost seven Finals in a row, but David Ferrer snapped the run by taking the title for the third time in Buenos Aires and that should give him a shot of belief that could see him go all the way through the draw this week.
To win the event in Rio de Janeiro will mean beating Rafael Nadal, but Ferrer is probably the only player in the draw that will really believe he can do that, and I am expecting a good start from him against a dangerous First Round opponent.
Jeremy Chardy is probably more effective on the hard courts, but he is also fairly accomplished as a clay court player in these types of events.
However, I think Ferrer has the consistency to extract errors and that should be where the difference in the outcome is made... I will look for Ferrer to come through a tight first set 75 and then pull away for a 63 second set and a straight sets win.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Tim Smyczek: A long lay off since the Australian Open is probably the biggest concern for Kevin Anderson in this First Round match against an opponent he has seen off three times before and all with some comfort.
You know what you are going to get from someone like Anderson- he will like to dictate things behind his big serve and use the pressure of holding serve to put his opponent under the cosh and I think that is where he will dominate this match.
Tim Smyczek's best performances remain on the Challenger Tour and he was a comfortable loser against Michael Russell last week.
He was also beaten here in Delray Beach by Anderson twelve months ago and I can see a similar 63, 64 scoreline this time around too.
John Isner - 3.5 games v Michael Russell: Another big server that has had to have some time off is John Isner who was suffering with ankle troubles and is making his first appearance since the Australian Open.
Isner has dominated Michael Russell in the past and the only issue to figure is whether he is ready to return to the court. He has played well on the American hard courts in the past and does have a title under his belt from Auckland, while Isner's serve is always the big leveller even when he is not entirely on form.
There is no doubt that Russell also can't have a lot left in the tank for the Tour and he is coming off a strong week in Memphis which may have taken away some energy for the tournament this week. He hadn't had a lot of success in 2014 before last week and I think the pressure generated by the Isner serve will prove to be the difference.
The first set may be a tight one, but Isner should be too good and come through 76, 63.
MY PICKS: Samantha Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
John Isner - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.34 Units (5 Units Staked, + 106.8% Yield)
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Tuesday, 18 February 2014
Monday, 17 February 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (February 17th)
Ivo Karlovic couldn't quite complete the title win in Memphis last week, but his run to the Final meant the outright picks produced a profit for the week and has helped the season statistics get back into the black. This week we have another four stops on the Tour and I have outright picks which can be read here.
As always, Monday tends to be a quieter day with a lot of the tournaments completing their qualifying rounds and that is the case in Dubai and Marseille to the extent that I couldn't find picks from either of those tournaments that I was comfortable with.
However, the tournament in Rio de Janeiro is getting straight into the action with the qualifiers concluded over the weekend and I hope I can set up a strong week with the following picks from the two tournaments taking place in North and South America.
Facundo Bagnis v Joao Souza: This is a First Round match between the qualifier from Argentina, Facundo Bagnis, and the home Wild Card hope, Joao Souza, but I have a feeling that the fans may be disappointed with the outcome of the match.
Neither of the players can say they have a lot of experience in playing at the top level of the ATP Tour, but both have had considerable success in the Challenger level so this may end up being decided by which of the two can control their emotions and nerves with more effect.
I think Bagnis does have a couple of things in his favour which surprises me that he has been left as the underdog in this match- the first of those is the fact he has beaten Souza in 4 straight matches, all on the clay courts, including their sole meeting in 2013; the second is he has come through the qualifiers which gives him an edge when it comes to the conditions at this new tournament.
Playing at home may inspire Souza enough to see off these two advantages for Bagnis, but I think the latter may also be able to use the two advantages to settle down a little easier in the match. It will only be a small interest, but I like the underdog in the match.
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Guilherme Clezar: Another player that has been given a Wild Card because he is a home hope is Guilherme Clezar, but I think it is going to be a big ask for him to beat Federico Delbonis who generally plays at a higher level.
There is no doubt that Clezar has a decent record at the Challenger level, but Delbonis has started producing more consistently in the main ATP tournaments, especially on the clay courts. However, Delbonis has suffered a couple of disappointing losses the last couple of weeks and I do wonder if that will play a part mentally on a young player with setbacks in the manner they have arrived.
The Argentine does have a decent serve which will at least set up his points, but Delbonis might have a slight mental block getting over the line and will be disappointed his last two defeats have come despite winning the first set of the match.
Playing at home may also give Clezar the feeling of nothing to lose from the match, but I think Delbonis will prove a little too good and come through 63, 76.
Feliciano Lopez v Sam Querrey: This has all the makings of a quality First Round match and really feels like the winner of the match could easily go all the way to the Final at Delray Beach this week.
If you like big serving tennis, this is the kind of match for you and chances will likely be limited in both directions to earn crucial breaks of serve, but I don't think the layers have got the right favourite in place unless there is an injury for Feliciano Lopez that is not common knowledge.
Lopez was beaten by Ivo Karlovic last week, but the big Croatian has been in decent form, while Sam Querrey has found a way to lose matches he has no right to be doing. The first of those was in the Davis Cup against James Ward when he inexplicably collapsed, while the loss to Alex Bogomolov last week in Memphis would have been another disappointment after Querrey won the first set.
That lack of confidence makes him an uneasy favourite as far as I am concerned and I was surprised that the layers think he is more likely to win the match. Lopez has a decent serve that can keep the pressure on Querrey and the big advantage will be the lefty going into the weaker backhand wing of the American.
It will likely be a tight match, but a couple of recent collapses from Querrey makes me wonder about his state of mind and I like Lopez to come through.
MY PICKS: Facunda Bagnis @ 2.14 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
As always, Monday tends to be a quieter day with a lot of the tournaments completing their qualifying rounds and that is the case in Dubai and Marseille to the extent that I couldn't find picks from either of those tournaments that I was comfortable with.
However, the tournament in Rio de Janeiro is getting straight into the action with the qualifiers concluded over the weekend and I hope I can set up a strong week with the following picks from the two tournaments taking place in North and South America.
Facundo Bagnis v Joao Souza: This is a First Round match between the qualifier from Argentina, Facundo Bagnis, and the home Wild Card hope, Joao Souza, but I have a feeling that the fans may be disappointed with the outcome of the match.
Neither of the players can say they have a lot of experience in playing at the top level of the ATP Tour, but both have had considerable success in the Challenger level so this may end up being decided by which of the two can control their emotions and nerves with more effect.
I think Bagnis does have a couple of things in his favour which surprises me that he has been left as the underdog in this match- the first of those is the fact he has beaten Souza in 4 straight matches, all on the clay courts, including their sole meeting in 2013; the second is he has come through the qualifiers which gives him an edge when it comes to the conditions at this new tournament.
Playing at home may inspire Souza enough to see off these two advantages for Bagnis, but I think the latter may also be able to use the two advantages to settle down a little easier in the match. It will only be a small interest, but I like the underdog in the match.
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Guilherme Clezar: Another player that has been given a Wild Card because he is a home hope is Guilherme Clezar, but I think it is going to be a big ask for him to beat Federico Delbonis who generally plays at a higher level.
There is no doubt that Clezar has a decent record at the Challenger level, but Delbonis has started producing more consistently in the main ATP tournaments, especially on the clay courts. However, Delbonis has suffered a couple of disappointing losses the last couple of weeks and I do wonder if that will play a part mentally on a young player with setbacks in the manner they have arrived.
The Argentine does have a decent serve which will at least set up his points, but Delbonis might have a slight mental block getting over the line and will be disappointed his last two defeats have come despite winning the first set of the match.
Playing at home may also give Clezar the feeling of nothing to lose from the match, but I think Delbonis will prove a little too good and come through 63, 76.
Feliciano Lopez v Sam Querrey: This has all the makings of a quality First Round match and really feels like the winner of the match could easily go all the way to the Final at Delray Beach this week.
If you like big serving tennis, this is the kind of match for you and chances will likely be limited in both directions to earn crucial breaks of serve, but I don't think the layers have got the right favourite in place unless there is an injury for Feliciano Lopez that is not common knowledge.
Lopez was beaten by Ivo Karlovic last week, but the big Croatian has been in decent form, while Sam Querrey has found a way to lose matches he has no right to be doing. The first of those was in the Davis Cup against James Ward when he inexplicably collapsed, while the loss to Alex Bogomolov last week in Memphis would have been another disappointment after Querrey won the first set.
That lack of confidence makes him an uneasy favourite as far as I am concerned and I was surprised that the layers think he is more likely to win the match. Lopez has a decent serve that can keep the pressure on Querrey and the big advantage will be the lefty going into the weaker backhand wing of the American.
It will likely be a tight match, but a couple of recent collapses from Querrey makes me wonder about his state of mind and I like Lopez to come through.
MY PICKS: Facunda Bagnis @ 2.14 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sunday, 16 February 2014
Tennis Outright Picks 2014 (February 17-23)
It was only this time last week that I was saying a long tennis season will have the ups and downs that comes with making picks after a tough week of the Tour... That has swung the other way this week with plenty of profits to speak of that was concluded with a profit showing for the season.
I had a couple of tough days during the week, but a strong run in the last three days as well as Ivo Karlovic reaching the Final in Memphis helped end the week with a lot of positives to take forward.
This week the Tour has moved on to stops in Dubai (WTA), Marseille (ATP), Delray Beach (ATP) and Rio de Janeiro (ATP)... The tournament in Dubai has most of the big names in the women's game in action, but most of the top men's players are not competing this week although Rafael Nadal is back on the court after his Australian Open Final defeat.
Hopefully I can find a couple of players that can provide deep runs in those tournaments following Karlovic's success last week and help set out another good week.
ATP Marseille
There are two top ten players in the Rankings that will be playing in Marseille and both Frenchmen, Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, will feel they have an excellent chance to win the title.
It is Tsonga who is favoured to win the tournament after the draw was made and you can't argue too much with that assessment as he is in the weaker half of the draw. He is also the defending Champion in Marseille after being forced to save a match point in his three set win over Tomas Berdych twelve months ago and I do think there is every chance he can retain the title this week.
Tsonga was beaten in the Second Round last week in Rotterdam by the in-form Marin Cilic so there is nothing to really worry about in terms of current form, while none of the other seeded players in his half of the draw can say they are in anything resembling good form.
One of the more dangerous players in his half could be Michael Llodra, a player that has usually reserved his best tennis for the indoor hard court events held in France. However, Llodra is another player that hasn't really had any form to speak of to open 2014 and that alone would make it a big surprise if he was to trouble Tsonga if the two players meet in the Semi Final.
I will put a couple of units on Tsonga to retain his title, but I think it may also be worth going against Richard Gasquet as the Number 1 seed who has struggled in Marseille in the past. While Gasquet should be able to move through to the Semi Final without too many issues, Ernests Gulbis could be a huge threat in that Round if he is still serving as effectively as he did for much of last week.
Gulbis has a bye in the First Round and he will be confident of seeing off Roberto Bautista-Agut in a potential Second Round match having dismissed the Spaniard on the indoor hard courts of St Petersburg at the end of last season.
The Latvian played with a bit of swagger last week and won a title on the indoor hard courts at the end of last season so I think he could be worth an interest at each-way to come through the tournament.
ATP Delray Beach
This draw looks incredibly bottom heavy in Delray Beach this week and it is that half of the draw that is going to provide the winner of the event as far as I am concerned. There is plenty of good form here with the likes of Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori both having won titles in the last couple of weeks, but that amount of tennis can also catch up on players.
The one player that may be able to take advantage of that is the returning John Isner who has been troubled by an ankle injury to open 2014, but has already won one title at Auckland.
Isner has seemingly been given a decent draw to get his teeth into the tournament and I would think he would be too good for Vasek Pospisil in a Quarter Final, even if the Canadian has the better head to head record of the two players.
However, Isner has perhaps been a little unfortunate in the losses and I would like the American to level up their personal series and perhaps prove a little too fresh for either Nishikori or Cilic in the Semi Final.
A small interest on Isner each-way looks a decent price for the week if he is back to health, especially as he can shed some rust early in the tournament before the bigger challenges coming up.
The seeds in the top half all have to prove that they are capable of better after indifferent starts to the new season, while the likes of Tommy Haas is coming across from Europe and has been inconsistent at best. Feliciano Lopez, Kevin Anderson and Lleyton Hewitt all will have some support, but I will just stick with Isner from this tournament.
MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 2.63 Coral (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis @ 7.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)
John Isner @ 7.50 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
Weekly Picks: 14-7, + 16.60 Units (67 Units Staked, + 24.78% Yield)
Outright Picks: 1-2, + 1 Unit (6 Unit Stakeds, + 16.67% Yield)
Season 2014: + 6.47 Units (251 Units Staked, + 2.51% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
I had a couple of tough days during the week, but a strong run in the last three days as well as Ivo Karlovic reaching the Final in Memphis helped end the week with a lot of positives to take forward.
This week the Tour has moved on to stops in Dubai (WTA), Marseille (ATP), Delray Beach (ATP) and Rio de Janeiro (ATP)... The tournament in Dubai has most of the big names in the women's game in action, but most of the top men's players are not competing this week although Rafael Nadal is back on the court after his Australian Open Final defeat.
Hopefully I can find a couple of players that can provide deep runs in those tournaments following Karlovic's success last week and help set out another good week.
ATP Marseille
There are two top ten players in the Rankings that will be playing in Marseille and both Frenchmen, Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, will feel they have an excellent chance to win the title.
It is Tsonga who is favoured to win the tournament after the draw was made and you can't argue too much with that assessment as he is in the weaker half of the draw. He is also the defending Champion in Marseille after being forced to save a match point in his three set win over Tomas Berdych twelve months ago and I do think there is every chance he can retain the title this week.
Tsonga was beaten in the Second Round last week in Rotterdam by the in-form Marin Cilic so there is nothing to really worry about in terms of current form, while none of the other seeded players in his half of the draw can say they are in anything resembling good form.
One of the more dangerous players in his half could be Michael Llodra, a player that has usually reserved his best tennis for the indoor hard court events held in France. However, Llodra is another player that hasn't really had any form to speak of to open 2014 and that alone would make it a big surprise if he was to trouble Tsonga if the two players meet in the Semi Final.
I will put a couple of units on Tsonga to retain his title, but I think it may also be worth going against Richard Gasquet as the Number 1 seed who has struggled in Marseille in the past. While Gasquet should be able to move through to the Semi Final without too many issues, Ernests Gulbis could be a huge threat in that Round if he is still serving as effectively as he did for much of last week.
Gulbis has a bye in the First Round and he will be confident of seeing off Roberto Bautista-Agut in a potential Second Round match having dismissed the Spaniard on the indoor hard courts of St Petersburg at the end of last season.
The Latvian played with a bit of swagger last week and won a title on the indoor hard courts at the end of last season so I think he could be worth an interest at each-way to come through the tournament.
ATP Delray Beach
This draw looks incredibly bottom heavy in Delray Beach this week and it is that half of the draw that is going to provide the winner of the event as far as I am concerned. There is plenty of good form here with the likes of Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori both having won titles in the last couple of weeks, but that amount of tennis can also catch up on players.
The one player that may be able to take advantage of that is the returning John Isner who has been troubled by an ankle injury to open 2014, but has already won one title at Auckland.
Isner has seemingly been given a decent draw to get his teeth into the tournament and I would think he would be too good for Vasek Pospisil in a Quarter Final, even if the Canadian has the better head to head record of the two players.
However, Isner has perhaps been a little unfortunate in the losses and I would like the American to level up their personal series and perhaps prove a little too fresh for either Nishikori or Cilic in the Semi Final.
A small interest on Isner each-way looks a decent price for the week if he is back to health, especially as he can shed some rust early in the tournament before the bigger challenges coming up.
The seeds in the top half all have to prove that they are capable of better after indifferent starts to the new season, while the likes of Tommy Haas is coming across from Europe and has been inconsistent at best. Feliciano Lopez, Kevin Anderson and Lleyton Hewitt all will have some support, but I will just stick with Isner from this tournament.
MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 2.63 Coral (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis @ 7.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)
John Isner @ 7.50 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
Weekly Picks: 14-7, + 16.60 Units (67 Units Staked, + 24.78% Yield)
Outright Picks: 1-2, + 1 Unit (6 Unit Stakeds, + 16.67% Yield)
Season 2014: + 6.47 Units (251 Units Staked, + 2.51% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Tennis Picks 2014 (February 16th)
I think over the last eighteen months, it has been the outright picks that have really given my tennis season a tough time as trying to recover those misses, but Ivo Karlovic moved into the Final at Memphis which means this is going to be a very good week for the picks all around.
That also means the 2014 season has turned around from a tough start with this being the second really successful week and one that will hopefully spark something for the rest of the season.
The picks went 3-1 yesterday with the only disappointment being Agnieszka Radwanska's loss to Simona Halep after she blew a 5-2 lead in the first set of that match.
Now we reach Sunday which is the day this week's tournaments are concluded and hopefully will be the exclamation point on the season.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Marin Cilic: It has been a long eighteen months since Tomas Berdych was last lifting a title in terms of his singles career (he has won two Davis Cup titles with the Czech Republic in that time frame), but I think he has been playing well enough to beat the in-form Marin Cilic for the title this week.
It won't be easy, but Berdych has been serving well and there was some vulnerabilities in the Cilic serves yesterday in his Semi Final win.
It will be a very close match, but I do think Berdych has enough to come through with a 63, 46, 64 win and finally get his hands on a trophy.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Fabio Fognini: In the form that Fabio Fognini is in, it was perhaps unsurprising to see Tommy Robredo get a chance to serve for the match in the Semi Final, but the Italian breaking serve and continuing his dominance on the clay courts.
Since winning his first title on the ATP Tour last summer, Fognini has been on an incredible run on the clay and has added three further titles since then. However, this could prove to be the toughest opponent he has played on the surface since his defeat to Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros.
David Ferrer had to come through some sticky moments in his Semi Final win over Nicolas Almagro, but it was the second decent performance in succession and the Spaniard has a strong record in Buenos Aires where he looks for a third title.
Picking against Fognini is much harder to do these days, especially on clay, but Ferrer will be able to live with the long rallies that the former has been winning against other opponents. There should be a number of breaks of serve against both players, but that little bit of quality that makes all the difference may come from Ferrer's racquet and help him to a 75, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 12-7, + 13.34 (63 Units Staked, + 21.17% Yield)
That also means the 2014 season has turned around from a tough start with this being the second really successful week and one that will hopefully spark something for the rest of the season.
The picks went 3-1 yesterday with the only disappointment being Agnieszka Radwanska's loss to Simona Halep after she blew a 5-2 lead in the first set of that match.
Now we reach Sunday which is the day this week's tournaments are concluded and hopefully will be the exclamation point on the season.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Marin Cilic: It has been a long eighteen months since Tomas Berdych was last lifting a title in terms of his singles career (he has won two Davis Cup titles with the Czech Republic in that time frame), but I think he has been playing well enough to beat the in-form Marin Cilic for the title this week.
It won't be easy, but Berdych has been serving well and there was some vulnerabilities in the Cilic serves yesterday in his Semi Final win.
It will be a very close match, but I do think Berdych has enough to come through with a 63, 46, 64 win and finally get his hands on a trophy.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Fabio Fognini: In the form that Fabio Fognini is in, it was perhaps unsurprising to see Tommy Robredo get a chance to serve for the match in the Semi Final, but the Italian breaking serve and continuing his dominance on the clay courts.
Since winning his first title on the ATP Tour last summer, Fognini has been on an incredible run on the clay and has added three further titles since then. However, this could prove to be the toughest opponent he has played on the surface since his defeat to Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros.
David Ferrer had to come through some sticky moments in his Semi Final win over Nicolas Almagro, but it was the second decent performance in succession and the Spaniard has a strong record in Buenos Aires where he looks for a third title.
Picking against Fognini is much harder to do these days, especially on clay, but Ferrer will be able to live with the long rallies that the former has been winning against other opponents. There should be a number of breaks of serve against both players, but that little bit of quality that makes all the difference may come from Ferrer's racquet and help him to a 75, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 12-7, + 13.34 (63 Units Staked, + 21.17% Yield)
Saturday, 15 February 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (February 15th)
As frustrated as I said I was after the results coming through on Thursday, it was actually not as bad a day as it could have been, but Friday has proved to be a very important day for the week and looks to bring in some positives that I have been looking for.
After having a number of matches get close, but not quite over the line, the luck seemed to have turned a little on Friday with some big performances and late breaks of serve helping the picks come in with plenty of winners. Unfortunately, Andy Murray proved to be one of the disappointments as he slipped in the Quarter Finals and ended my outright interest at the ATP 500 event being held in Rotterdam, but other than Robin Haase retiring when very much down in his match with Tommy Robredo, it was a perfect day for the picks.
Even with the two outright exits over the last couple of days, Ivo Karlovic is still flying the flag in that regards and is one match away from making the Final which will produce a profit from the outright picks. Of course, if he can go on and win the tournament, this will prove to be a very strong week all around and raise a confidence that may have sapped a little recently.
That has put the week into a strong positive position as we have reached the Semi Finals in all four events being played across the world and I will look for it to end in a position to at least turn around the poor start to 2014 in general.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Ernests Gulbis: A fascinating Semi Final is in store between these two players who have both shown strong form during the week and I think it is bound to be another close one between them.
However, I think Tomas Berdych is the man that is going to get through to the Final as he takes another step closer to ending his title drought which has stretched back to Stockholm in October 2012.
He has to be careful in this Semi Final though as he plays Ernests Gulbis who has already had back to back surprise wins over Grigor Dimitrov and Juan Martin Del Potro and has also stunned Berdych in the past as witnessed by their match at Wimbledon in 2012.
Both have been serving very well, but I think the layers have put too much stock in the Gulbis win over Del Potro as I am not sure the latter was feeling 100% comfortable on the court this week. Against Berdych, Gulbis' strength will be going against Berdych's and I think the forehand battle is more likely to be won by the Czech player.
Of course, if Gulbis serves as big as he has in the last two matches, he is going to be incredibly tough to break, but I think Berdych dealt with Jerzy Janowicz' serve effectively enough to think he will make enough returns to force pressure on his opponent. It is unlikely to be straight-forward and breaks could be at a premium, but Berdych to come through 76, 64 is my call.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Igor Sijsling: I will be the first to admit that I was expecting something of a come down from Marin Cilic after winning the title in Zagreb last week, but he has been in exceptional form this week and has already downed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray as the big Croatian looks for back to back titles.
This Semi Final represents a strong chance for Cilic to get into another Final as his recovery from a three month ban continues moving in the right direction and I think he will beat the home hope in the match.
You have to give Igor Sijsling plenty of credit for reaching this stage of the tournament as the Dutch look for the first home winner since Richard Krajicek took the title. However, you would also have to be a little critical and say the draw hasn't been the most difficult and this is going to be the toughest match he has played during the week by some distance.
Sijsling actually represented the first competitive match in three months for Cilic at Paris last October and it was the latter who came through comfortably after losing the first set, which was understandable. Cilic will pressure with his return of serve, one of his key strengths that is very under-rated, while he has also been serving with aplomb.
That combination should really work to his favour in this one and I think Cilic will come through with a 64, 64 win.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 2.5 games v Simona Halep: With the consistency that Simona Halep has shown on the Tour over the last ten months, I think it is fair to say that the Romanian perhaps let nerves get the better of her when dismissed so comprehensively by Dominika Cibulkova at the Australian Open Quarter Final stage.
Halep has shown decent form again this week as she has come through the draw with some comfort after a tricky opening match, but I still believe she will fall short against Agnieszka Radwanska in this Semi Final in Doha.
I will be the first to admit that I am not always a huge fan of the Radwanska game as it seems it will only take her so far and I don't believe it will ever be enough to win a Grand Slam. Defending admirably is one thing, but there will always be a player that gets hot and hits through that, so you have to add weapons of your own to give opponents something to think about.
In saying that, Radwanska has generally made hay outside of the Slams and that is the reason she is a top five player in the Rankings. I can see her frustrating Halep in this match, although the latter has shown she is capable of getting hot enough to win matches against the Pole as shown in Rome last year.
That was even on the clay courts where you would think Radwanska's game had more of a grip, but I am not sure that Halep's confidence is quite there at the beginning of 2014 to replicate that. Radwanska has been incredibly comfortable to this point and I think this will be her hardest match, but I am expecting her to come through with the win.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: David Ferrer is definitely on the downtrend of his career as far as I am concerned, but this could still be a good spot to back him to beat his compatriot yet again.
Ferrer has steadily improved his play this week, and he could be facing Almagro at the right time as the latter has had a lot of tennis in his legs and has looked a little vulnerable at times. There has to be a better serving display from Ferrer, but he should have some chances to break serve too and I think that is where he can come through and cover the spread.
The higher Ranked Spaniard has dominated the head to head record between these two and generally has been a comfortable winner when they have faced one another. Even the slightly poorer form of Ferrer from his heyday, but Almagro is still returning from an injury and I think Ferrer comes through with a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-6, + 9.30 Units (55 Units Staked, + 16.91% Yield)
After having a number of matches get close, but not quite over the line, the luck seemed to have turned a little on Friday with some big performances and late breaks of serve helping the picks come in with plenty of winners. Unfortunately, Andy Murray proved to be one of the disappointments as he slipped in the Quarter Finals and ended my outright interest at the ATP 500 event being held in Rotterdam, but other than Robin Haase retiring when very much down in his match with Tommy Robredo, it was a perfect day for the picks.
Even with the two outright exits over the last couple of days, Ivo Karlovic is still flying the flag in that regards and is one match away from making the Final which will produce a profit from the outright picks. Of course, if he can go on and win the tournament, this will prove to be a very strong week all around and raise a confidence that may have sapped a little recently.
That has put the week into a strong positive position as we have reached the Semi Finals in all four events being played across the world and I will look for it to end in a position to at least turn around the poor start to 2014 in general.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Ernests Gulbis: A fascinating Semi Final is in store between these two players who have both shown strong form during the week and I think it is bound to be another close one between them.
However, I think Tomas Berdych is the man that is going to get through to the Final as he takes another step closer to ending his title drought which has stretched back to Stockholm in October 2012.
He has to be careful in this Semi Final though as he plays Ernests Gulbis who has already had back to back surprise wins over Grigor Dimitrov and Juan Martin Del Potro and has also stunned Berdych in the past as witnessed by their match at Wimbledon in 2012.
Both have been serving very well, but I think the layers have put too much stock in the Gulbis win over Del Potro as I am not sure the latter was feeling 100% comfortable on the court this week. Against Berdych, Gulbis' strength will be going against Berdych's and I think the forehand battle is more likely to be won by the Czech player.
Of course, if Gulbis serves as big as he has in the last two matches, he is going to be incredibly tough to break, but I think Berdych dealt with Jerzy Janowicz' serve effectively enough to think he will make enough returns to force pressure on his opponent. It is unlikely to be straight-forward and breaks could be at a premium, but Berdych to come through 76, 64 is my call.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Igor Sijsling: I will be the first to admit that I was expecting something of a come down from Marin Cilic after winning the title in Zagreb last week, but he has been in exceptional form this week and has already downed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray as the big Croatian looks for back to back titles.
This Semi Final represents a strong chance for Cilic to get into another Final as his recovery from a three month ban continues moving in the right direction and I think he will beat the home hope in the match.
You have to give Igor Sijsling plenty of credit for reaching this stage of the tournament as the Dutch look for the first home winner since Richard Krajicek took the title. However, you would also have to be a little critical and say the draw hasn't been the most difficult and this is going to be the toughest match he has played during the week by some distance.
Sijsling actually represented the first competitive match in three months for Cilic at Paris last October and it was the latter who came through comfortably after losing the first set, which was understandable. Cilic will pressure with his return of serve, one of his key strengths that is very under-rated, while he has also been serving with aplomb.
That combination should really work to his favour in this one and I think Cilic will come through with a 64, 64 win.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 2.5 games v Simona Halep: With the consistency that Simona Halep has shown on the Tour over the last ten months, I think it is fair to say that the Romanian perhaps let nerves get the better of her when dismissed so comprehensively by Dominika Cibulkova at the Australian Open Quarter Final stage.
Halep has shown decent form again this week as she has come through the draw with some comfort after a tricky opening match, but I still believe she will fall short against Agnieszka Radwanska in this Semi Final in Doha.
I will be the first to admit that I am not always a huge fan of the Radwanska game as it seems it will only take her so far and I don't believe it will ever be enough to win a Grand Slam. Defending admirably is one thing, but there will always be a player that gets hot and hits through that, so you have to add weapons of your own to give opponents something to think about.
In saying that, Radwanska has generally made hay outside of the Slams and that is the reason she is a top five player in the Rankings. I can see her frustrating Halep in this match, although the latter has shown she is capable of getting hot enough to win matches against the Pole as shown in Rome last year.
That was even on the clay courts where you would think Radwanska's game had more of a grip, but I am not sure that Halep's confidence is quite there at the beginning of 2014 to replicate that. Radwanska has been incredibly comfortable to this point and I think this will be her hardest match, but I am expecting her to come through with the win.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: David Ferrer is definitely on the downtrend of his career as far as I am concerned, but this could still be a good spot to back him to beat his compatriot yet again.
Ferrer has steadily improved his play this week, and he could be facing Almagro at the right time as the latter has had a lot of tennis in his legs and has looked a little vulnerable at times. There has to be a better serving display from Ferrer, but he should have some chances to break serve too and I think that is where he can come through and cover the spread.
The higher Ranked Spaniard has dominated the head to head record between these two and generally has been a comfortable winner when they have faced one another. Even the slightly poorer form of Ferrer from his heyday, but Almagro is still returning from an injury and I think Ferrer comes through with a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-6, + 9.30 Units (55 Units Staked, + 16.91% Yield)
Weekend Football Picks 2014 (February 15-17)
Late goals, missed chances and some poor performances pretty much summed up the picks I made during the week and that has put me in a pretty negative position in the month. The last two round of games have been a struggle, but hopefully there will be a change in fortunes as the FA Cup reaches the Fifth Round.
It will be interesting to see some of the team line ups that will be sent out this weekend, but we have two huge games as the top four sides in the Premier League meet one another just before the Champions League re-starts.
Guessing team news is never an easy task, but you have to think the majority of teams that have reached this stage will be taking the Cup seriously, especially those outside of the top four knowing that two of those sides will be exiting at the end of the Round. Wigan Athletic winning the competition last season will also give other teams the belief that they are capable of going all the way too and so strong teams should be named.
The weather is another factor that will have an effect this weekend as the heavy storms battering the United Kingdom continue, but the hope is that those calm down on Saturday to the point that we get to see some good football.
Sunderland v Southampton Pick: Both of these clubs will feel they have an excellent chance of reaching the Sixth Round of the FA Cup and could easily go a lot further if they can navigate this game, but I think the edge is rightly being given to Southampton in the first of the games this weekend.
Last month, Southampton were 0-2 up here and cruising, but they stepped off the gas and allowed Sunderland to get back into the game, but the away side can use that confidence to win this game.
Sunderland are likely to play a lot of fringe players as they decide to put the Premier League first and that is an easier decision for Gus Poyet knowing the side have a League Cup Final to play in two weeks time.
With a few changes, Sunderland may struggle to find the rhythm in their play against a Southampton side that have seen their confidence restored over the last six weeks. I would be surprised if Mauricio Pochettino decided to make a lot of changes with the chance to win silverware this season and no reason to rest players at the moment.
However, he did in a League Cup defeat here earlier this season, but I still believe the FA Cup has more prestige attached to it that Southampton will give it a good go to win the competition. Sunderland won't want a replay, but I think they will do well to get this tie to that stage and I look for Southampton to snap their poor run against Sunderland and beat them for the first time since 2003.
Sheffield Wednesday v Charlton Athletic: Two sides in the Championship have the chance to replicate the achievements of Blackburn Rovers and Millwall by reaching the Quarter Final of the FA Cup and I would be surprised if either takes this game lightly even if I do think Sheffield Wednesday are going to move through.
Of the two teams, Sheffield Wednesday have at least been in better form over the last few weeks and they should still be feeling good about their chances even after being battered at home during the week.
That was a disappointing loss, but the scoreline was harsh and Sheffield Wednesday may have won the game if they had shown some more clinical form in front of goal. That is what they have been doing in games at Hillsborough before the loss to Wigan and I think they will prove a little too good for Charlton Athletic.
You have to respect Charlton coming through two away ties in the FA Cup, but their form has been poor in the Championship on their travels and confidence would have taken another hit from 3 straight losses since the Fourth Round win at Huddersfield Town. They may play with nothing to lose which makes Charlton dangerous, but another fluctuation in form during the FA Cup would be a surprise considering how they have been playing.
Charlton didn't have to play during the week which may give them a chance, but I like Sheffield Wednesday to win.
Manchester City v Chelsea Pick: You can't argue with the conclusion that Jose Mourinho out-witted Manuel Pellegrini two weeks ago and got the tactics spot on in a 0-1 win that could have been a greater margin but for some poor finishing and the woodwork coming to the rescue for Manchester City.
The absence of John Terry and Gary Cahill is big news though and may give Manchester City a little more room to create chances after finding both in top form when they played earlier this month. Manchester City weren't great two weeks ago, but Samir Nasri returning would be a huge positive for them as it may free up Yaya Toure a little more although the absence of Sergio Aguero will also have a big impact on the home side.
Chances were not at a premium when they met two weeks ago and I would find it strange if either side sat back in this game. With the Champions League re-starting during the week, there isn't much room for additional games so a replay is the last thing either will want and I feel that will produce a more open game.
That isn't to say that the game last month wasn't open, but it is to say that I think there will be plenty of chances again in this game and I will be expecting more composure in front of goal. Manchester City shouldn't really be as big a price as they are to win the game, but Chelsea had things spot on two weeks ago and back to back games without a goal will have sapped some confidence.
I don't think it will go three games without a goal is in the offing for Manchester City, but I can't back them to win the game with the way Chelsea performed against them either. I do think both teams will score at least one goal and both will be pushing for the winner so over 2.5 goals has to be the call, especially if the game is as open as two weeks ago.
Everton v Swansea Pick: I won't have much to say about this game except Everton are bound to be taking the competition seriously after Roberto Martinez won the FA Cup with Wigan Athletic last season.
I couldn't believe Southampton rested so many players yesterday with nothing to really gain from doing so, but I would be surprised if Everton go the same way.
Having a game cancelled during the week would have helped them and I think they are capable of winning the game. However, Swansea will cause some problems themselves and I can see them scoring at least once in the game and so backing the home team to win a game where both teams score is my pick.
Arsenal v Liverpool Pick: The layers are taking no chances with the Liverpool price after it was suggested that Arsenal were going to rest a number of players in anticipation of the Champions League game to be played on Wednesday night.
It would be a concern for the fans if Arsene Wenger decides to rest a number of first team players as they can't afford to see Arsenal give up on trophies, but they will also want to see the team restore some confidence after a couple of disappointing performances in the Premier League.
The 5-1 loss at Liverpool will be a result they really want to wipe from the memory at the first opportunity, but resting first team players will only give the away side the edge.
I have to credit Arsenal with the way they have defended for most of the season, especially at the Emirates Stadium, but Liverpool exposed them with pace and power in their play and I have no reason to think Brendan Rodgers will make too many changes. They did have a tough game at Fulham during the week, but the additional time to prepare for this game and the week between this and their next game should have Liverpool fully focused on the task at hand.
Whether they can win this game at the first instance is tough to really know considering Liverpool's poor record at Arsenal in recent seasons, but they have enough about them to cause the Gunners more defensive problems. I think if Liverpool are to win, they will likely need to score twice, but I will back them to either reach that number or three goals which is priced at a very similar level to the away win.
MY PICKS: Southampton @ 2.30 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Sheffield Wednesday @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Everton to Win @ 3.60 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Liverpool Goal Bands: 2-3 Goals @ 2.45 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
February Update: 5-12, - 8.41 Units (29 Units Staked, - 29% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 99-103-3, + 12.71 Units (328 Units Staked, + 3.88% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
It will be interesting to see some of the team line ups that will be sent out this weekend, but we have two huge games as the top four sides in the Premier League meet one another just before the Champions League re-starts.
Guessing team news is never an easy task, but you have to think the majority of teams that have reached this stage will be taking the Cup seriously, especially those outside of the top four knowing that two of those sides will be exiting at the end of the Round. Wigan Athletic winning the competition last season will also give other teams the belief that they are capable of going all the way too and so strong teams should be named.
The weather is another factor that will have an effect this weekend as the heavy storms battering the United Kingdom continue, but the hope is that those calm down on Saturday to the point that we get to see some good football.
Sunderland v Southampton Pick: Both of these clubs will feel they have an excellent chance of reaching the Sixth Round of the FA Cup and could easily go a lot further if they can navigate this game, but I think the edge is rightly being given to Southampton in the first of the games this weekend.
Last month, Southampton were 0-2 up here and cruising, but they stepped off the gas and allowed Sunderland to get back into the game, but the away side can use that confidence to win this game.
Sunderland are likely to play a lot of fringe players as they decide to put the Premier League first and that is an easier decision for Gus Poyet knowing the side have a League Cup Final to play in two weeks time.
With a few changes, Sunderland may struggle to find the rhythm in their play against a Southampton side that have seen their confidence restored over the last six weeks. I would be surprised if Mauricio Pochettino decided to make a lot of changes with the chance to win silverware this season and no reason to rest players at the moment.
However, he did in a League Cup defeat here earlier this season, but I still believe the FA Cup has more prestige attached to it that Southampton will give it a good go to win the competition. Sunderland won't want a replay, but I think they will do well to get this tie to that stage and I look for Southampton to snap their poor run against Sunderland and beat them for the first time since 2003.
Sheffield Wednesday v Charlton Athletic: Two sides in the Championship have the chance to replicate the achievements of Blackburn Rovers and Millwall by reaching the Quarter Final of the FA Cup and I would be surprised if either takes this game lightly even if I do think Sheffield Wednesday are going to move through.
Of the two teams, Sheffield Wednesday have at least been in better form over the last few weeks and they should still be feeling good about their chances even after being battered at home during the week.
That was a disappointing loss, but the scoreline was harsh and Sheffield Wednesday may have won the game if they had shown some more clinical form in front of goal. That is what they have been doing in games at Hillsborough before the loss to Wigan and I think they will prove a little too good for Charlton Athletic.
You have to respect Charlton coming through two away ties in the FA Cup, but their form has been poor in the Championship on their travels and confidence would have taken another hit from 3 straight losses since the Fourth Round win at Huddersfield Town. They may play with nothing to lose which makes Charlton dangerous, but another fluctuation in form during the FA Cup would be a surprise considering how they have been playing.
Charlton didn't have to play during the week which may give them a chance, but I like Sheffield Wednesday to win.
Manchester City v Chelsea Pick: You can't argue with the conclusion that Jose Mourinho out-witted Manuel Pellegrini two weeks ago and got the tactics spot on in a 0-1 win that could have been a greater margin but for some poor finishing and the woodwork coming to the rescue for Manchester City.
The absence of John Terry and Gary Cahill is big news though and may give Manchester City a little more room to create chances after finding both in top form when they played earlier this month. Manchester City weren't great two weeks ago, but Samir Nasri returning would be a huge positive for them as it may free up Yaya Toure a little more although the absence of Sergio Aguero will also have a big impact on the home side.
Chances were not at a premium when they met two weeks ago and I would find it strange if either side sat back in this game. With the Champions League re-starting during the week, there isn't much room for additional games so a replay is the last thing either will want and I feel that will produce a more open game.
That isn't to say that the game last month wasn't open, but it is to say that I think there will be plenty of chances again in this game and I will be expecting more composure in front of goal. Manchester City shouldn't really be as big a price as they are to win the game, but Chelsea had things spot on two weeks ago and back to back games without a goal will have sapped some confidence.
I don't think it will go three games without a goal is in the offing for Manchester City, but I can't back them to win the game with the way Chelsea performed against them either. I do think both teams will score at least one goal and both will be pushing for the winner so over 2.5 goals has to be the call, especially if the game is as open as two weeks ago.
Everton v Swansea Pick: I won't have much to say about this game except Everton are bound to be taking the competition seriously after Roberto Martinez won the FA Cup with Wigan Athletic last season.
I couldn't believe Southampton rested so many players yesterday with nothing to really gain from doing so, but I would be surprised if Everton go the same way.
Having a game cancelled during the week would have helped them and I think they are capable of winning the game. However, Swansea will cause some problems themselves and I can see them scoring at least once in the game and so backing the home team to win a game where both teams score is my pick.
Arsenal v Liverpool Pick: The layers are taking no chances with the Liverpool price after it was suggested that Arsenal were going to rest a number of players in anticipation of the Champions League game to be played on Wednesday night.
It would be a concern for the fans if Arsene Wenger decides to rest a number of first team players as they can't afford to see Arsenal give up on trophies, but they will also want to see the team restore some confidence after a couple of disappointing performances in the Premier League.
The 5-1 loss at Liverpool will be a result they really want to wipe from the memory at the first opportunity, but resting first team players will only give the away side the edge.
I have to credit Arsenal with the way they have defended for most of the season, especially at the Emirates Stadium, but Liverpool exposed them with pace and power in their play and I have no reason to think Brendan Rodgers will make too many changes. They did have a tough game at Fulham during the week, but the additional time to prepare for this game and the week between this and their next game should have Liverpool fully focused on the task at hand.
Whether they can win this game at the first instance is tough to really know considering Liverpool's poor record at Arsenal in recent seasons, but they have enough about them to cause the Gunners more defensive problems. I think if Liverpool are to win, they will likely need to score twice, but I will back them to either reach that number or three goals which is priced at a very similar level to the away win.
MY PICKS: Southampton @ 2.30 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Sheffield Wednesday @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Everton to Win @ 3.60 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Liverpool Goal Bands: 2-3 Goals @ 2.45 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
February Update: 5-12, - 8.41 Units (29 Units Staked, - 29% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 99-103-3, + 12.71 Units (328 Units Staked, + 3.88% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Friday, 14 February 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (February 14th)
To say I was absolutely furious with the picks I made on Thursday won't get close to the where I was after seeing almost every single one do their best to lose in the most ridiculous manner.
I knew what kind of day it was going to be as soon as the Grigor Dimitrov defeat was completed as he was seemingly on the wrong end of a Ernests Gulbis performance where the Latvian is unplayable- this is a rare occurrence and unlikely to be produced again in the near future, but saving all the break points with huge serves and just playing top, top quality stuff behind his serve set the tone for an absolutely miserable day.
Tommy Haas never turned up and had ridiculous serving statistics, Petra Kvitova played within herself for two sets (although you have to credit Lucie Safarova) and was still only one game from covering, but things got steadily worse.
How about Andy Murray taking a double break lead in his match with Dominic Thiem, but then giving away the most ridiculous of games which gave his young opponent the confidence to play his shots?
Or how about Nicolas Almagro being broken 3 times in the first set in a terrible display, but suddenly coming back to life to win the match in three sets and facing only 2 break points the rest of the way?
Absolutely shocking day that has sent this week spiralling out of control and it was hard to contain some of my anger as I hate getting things wrong, but to be so wrong with players deciding to put in lacklustre efforts just bothers me all the more. It just made no sense with the way some of the results came through and I am very much bothered when I keep hitting these shocking runs of loss after loss.
I am down, but I very much plan on beating the ten count and getting ready to punch my way back into some sort of positive run.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: This is going to be a big-serving match and initially I may have thought that Tomas Berdych was giving up too many games, but I believe he has the capability of breaking the Jerzy Janowicz serve with the current form he is displaying.
There are times when you watch Berdych and can't help be frustrated as he has a lot of ability but can come off the form he is capable of and that gives opponents a chance. However, this match should be one where he can dictate enough behind his own serve and force the pressure on Janowicz.
They met on the indoor hard courts of Marseille last season and Berdych was a comfortable winner, even if the match was forced into a third set, but the Czech player does seem the more likely to take the few chances that may be presented in the match.
He is 7/13 on break points in his two matches against Janowicz and something similar will give him a great chance of moving through to the Semi Final with a 63, 76 win in the pocket.
Ernests Gulbis + 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Ernests Gulbis was serving out of a tree in his win over Grigor Dimitrov and will have to bring the same form into this match against Juan Martin Del Potro if he is to reverse the result from last season.
He may have more of a chance as Del Potro is still limited off his backhand wing as to how much power he can generate, but the whole match is going to hinge on how effective the Gulbis serve is today.
If, and it is a big if, he can replicate what he produced against Dimitrov, Gulbis will put a lot of pressure on Del Potro and will have his own chances and I think there is every reason to believe this match will at least go into a third set.
There is likely to be a tie-breaker involved too, and those situations means the 3.5 game head start might be a touch high for Del Potro to cover. The Argentine has won comfortably in his two matches so far this week, but this one might be a lot tougher and I like taking the games.
Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: Marin Cilic has played very well over the last couple of weeks and is looking for his eight win in a row after taking the title in Zagreb and coming through two Rounds here in Rotterdam.
Getting through this Quarter Final is going to be a real test of Cilic's credentials and will also give him a good indication as to how far he is from the top of the game following his return from a three month ban.
His win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was impressive as Cilic dominated the match, but Andy Murray regularly gives him fits and the match is very much on the British Number 1's racquet in my opinion.
Murray had to battle through his match in the last Round against Dominic Thiem, but he admitted he was feeling pretty good and that he should have perhaps converted more chances. Thiem had nothing to lose and was going for his big shots, but Cilic has to overcome the mental barrier which exists when you have lost 9 of 10 and 6 in a row against a single opponent.
They did have a close match in the Final of Queens last season, but Murray's return is likely to give him plenty more chances to win this match with room to spare and I think that is where the match will be won or lost. If Murray takes the chances that come his way, I expect him to get through 64, 64, but if he doesn't, this could be a very close match that could be won by Cilic.
As you can see from the pick, I think Murray will take those opportunities and his return of serve may mentally fatigue a player that has spent a lot of time on the court over the last two weeks.
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games v Petra Kvitova: It was only around six months ago that Jelena Jankovic would have been a strong underdog in a match between these two players, but the former World Number 1 has really turned her form around and looks to be coming into this match the stronger of the two.
As much as I like Petra Kvitova's game on the court, she can't keep falling into long three set battles and coming off back to back matches of that nature without a rest day is hard to recover from. I am not doubting her fitness, but Kvitova has to be feeling it a little as she wakes up for this match against an opponent that is capable of mentally exhausting an opponent with her ability to scramble and force the ball into court.
That is what Jankovic has to do- if she can frustrate Kvitova, she will begin to force errors and that will swing the edge in this match in her direction. She also is a decent shot-maker, although Jankovic's serve can go a little haywire at times and that is my biggest concern in the match.
However, I think all the tennis of the last couple of days may just take its toll on Kvitova in this Quarter Final and I like Jankovic to come through 76, 64.
Tommy Robredo - 3.5 games v Robin Haase: It is an interesting Quarter Final between these two players, but I think Tommy Robredo's added experience on a clay court will prove to be vital as well as his all around more consistent game.
Robredo won't fluctuate too far between his levels, but Robin Haase can be criticised for doing that at times, and that could be enough to help the veteran Spaniard reach a Semi Final.
There is little doubt that Haase has the bigger serve of the two, but he does seem to lose his focus when it comes to the groundstrokes and that is where the uber-consistent Robredo could come through and win each set with a break more. There will be breaks of serve both ways, but I can see Robredo matching his 64, 64 win over Haase in Portugal on the clay courts last season.
Fabio Fognini - 4.5 games v Pablo Andujar: Over the last nine months, there hasn't been a player on the Tour in better form on the clay courts than Fabio Fognini as he continues in 2014 where he left off last summer.
This could be a strong season for the Italian if he can keep the momentum he has built up in that time by winning another title on the Golden Swing in South America, especially with the European clay court season around six weeks away.
Fognini hasn't just won matches, but he has been dismissing a lot of his opponents and I think it may be tough for Pablo Andujar to keep tabs on him, even if the Spaniard is very comfortable on the clay courts himself.
Neither player will dominate off the serve, but Fognini looks like he is playing confident, effective tennis off the ground and I think he will be able to knock off Andujar with room to spare in this one. I don't think I ever believed I would back Fognini with so many games being given up, but he is such hot form on the clay that he has to be backed here.
Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: Nicolas Almagro started off incredibly cold in his last match against Daniel Gimeno-Traver, but had another win to give him a boost after returning from injury. He served terribly in the first set, but found his rhythm in the final two sets and bringing that to this match will be important.
The amount of time he spent on court yesterday may have been a worry initially, but his opponent Jeremy Chardy had an even tougher encounter as he saved match points to see off Alexandr Dolgopolov.
This match should see both men looking to dictate things behind the serve, but that should be a strength for Almagro as well as the clay court pedigree that the Spaniard has. There is no doubt that Chardy can perform on the surface, but I think he can get a little frustrated with the longer rallies and may not have the patience to really get it going on the clay, although he will knock off 'lesser' opponents the majority of the time.
Unfortunately for Chardy, Almagro certainly is not one of the lesser opponents he will face and I think the latter will add to his four wins on the Tour over the Frenchman and come through a tough match 76, 64.
Yen-Hsun Lu - 3.5 games v Alex Kuznetsov: Any friends and family of Alex Kuznetsov must be proud of their guy as he finally won back to back matches on the Tour after a decade long career. Getting into his first Semi Final will be a big task against Yen-Hsun Lu who had to recover from a set down to beat Denis Kudla in the last Round and must be confident of getting further.
Lu has had a decent season already with one Final under his belt and he will feel he can get to another here in Memphis with Feliciano Lopez falling out of the draw. I also think the match under his belt will help Lu who should be too strong for a player that generally plays at the level below the main ATP one.
He has to be a little tougher when it comes to facing break points as he struggled under that pressure against Kudla, but he also created plenty of opportunities and you have to think he will do the same against an opponent who is of a similar level to Kudla.
As I said, Lu has to serve better, but I think the match under his belt will help a lot and I think he will come through with a break in each set for a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis + 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tommy Robredo - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Yen-Hsun Lu - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-5, - 1.02 Units (41 Units Staked, - 2.49% Yield)
I knew what kind of day it was going to be as soon as the Grigor Dimitrov defeat was completed as he was seemingly on the wrong end of a Ernests Gulbis performance where the Latvian is unplayable- this is a rare occurrence and unlikely to be produced again in the near future, but saving all the break points with huge serves and just playing top, top quality stuff behind his serve set the tone for an absolutely miserable day.
Tommy Haas never turned up and had ridiculous serving statistics, Petra Kvitova played within herself for two sets (although you have to credit Lucie Safarova) and was still only one game from covering, but things got steadily worse.
How about Andy Murray taking a double break lead in his match with Dominic Thiem, but then giving away the most ridiculous of games which gave his young opponent the confidence to play his shots?
Or how about Nicolas Almagro being broken 3 times in the first set in a terrible display, but suddenly coming back to life to win the match in three sets and facing only 2 break points the rest of the way?
Absolutely shocking day that has sent this week spiralling out of control and it was hard to contain some of my anger as I hate getting things wrong, but to be so wrong with players deciding to put in lacklustre efforts just bothers me all the more. It just made no sense with the way some of the results came through and I am very much bothered when I keep hitting these shocking runs of loss after loss.
I am down, but I very much plan on beating the ten count and getting ready to punch my way back into some sort of positive run.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: This is going to be a big-serving match and initially I may have thought that Tomas Berdych was giving up too many games, but I believe he has the capability of breaking the Jerzy Janowicz serve with the current form he is displaying.
There are times when you watch Berdych and can't help be frustrated as he has a lot of ability but can come off the form he is capable of and that gives opponents a chance. However, this match should be one where he can dictate enough behind his own serve and force the pressure on Janowicz.
They met on the indoor hard courts of Marseille last season and Berdych was a comfortable winner, even if the match was forced into a third set, but the Czech player does seem the more likely to take the few chances that may be presented in the match.
He is 7/13 on break points in his two matches against Janowicz and something similar will give him a great chance of moving through to the Semi Final with a 63, 76 win in the pocket.
Ernests Gulbis + 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Ernests Gulbis was serving out of a tree in his win over Grigor Dimitrov and will have to bring the same form into this match against Juan Martin Del Potro if he is to reverse the result from last season.
He may have more of a chance as Del Potro is still limited off his backhand wing as to how much power he can generate, but the whole match is going to hinge on how effective the Gulbis serve is today.
If, and it is a big if, he can replicate what he produced against Dimitrov, Gulbis will put a lot of pressure on Del Potro and will have his own chances and I think there is every reason to believe this match will at least go into a third set.
There is likely to be a tie-breaker involved too, and those situations means the 3.5 game head start might be a touch high for Del Potro to cover. The Argentine has won comfortably in his two matches so far this week, but this one might be a lot tougher and I like taking the games.
Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: Marin Cilic has played very well over the last couple of weeks and is looking for his eight win in a row after taking the title in Zagreb and coming through two Rounds here in Rotterdam.
Getting through this Quarter Final is going to be a real test of Cilic's credentials and will also give him a good indication as to how far he is from the top of the game following his return from a three month ban.
His win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was impressive as Cilic dominated the match, but Andy Murray regularly gives him fits and the match is very much on the British Number 1's racquet in my opinion.
Murray had to battle through his match in the last Round against Dominic Thiem, but he admitted he was feeling pretty good and that he should have perhaps converted more chances. Thiem had nothing to lose and was going for his big shots, but Cilic has to overcome the mental barrier which exists when you have lost 9 of 10 and 6 in a row against a single opponent.
They did have a close match in the Final of Queens last season, but Murray's return is likely to give him plenty more chances to win this match with room to spare and I think that is where the match will be won or lost. If Murray takes the chances that come his way, I expect him to get through 64, 64, but if he doesn't, this could be a very close match that could be won by Cilic.
As you can see from the pick, I think Murray will take those opportunities and his return of serve may mentally fatigue a player that has spent a lot of time on the court over the last two weeks.
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games v Petra Kvitova: It was only around six months ago that Jelena Jankovic would have been a strong underdog in a match between these two players, but the former World Number 1 has really turned her form around and looks to be coming into this match the stronger of the two.
As much as I like Petra Kvitova's game on the court, she can't keep falling into long three set battles and coming off back to back matches of that nature without a rest day is hard to recover from. I am not doubting her fitness, but Kvitova has to be feeling it a little as she wakes up for this match against an opponent that is capable of mentally exhausting an opponent with her ability to scramble and force the ball into court.
That is what Jankovic has to do- if she can frustrate Kvitova, she will begin to force errors and that will swing the edge in this match in her direction. She also is a decent shot-maker, although Jankovic's serve can go a little haywire at times and that is my biggest concern in the match.
However, I think all the tennis of the last couple of days may just take its toll on Kvitova in this Quarter Final and I like Jankovic to come through 76, 64.
Tommy Robredo - 3.5 games v Robin Haase: It is an interesting Quarter Final between these two players, but I think Tommy Robredo's added experience on a clay court will prove to be vital as well as his all around more consistent game.
Robredo won't fluctuate too far between his levels, but Robin Haase can be criticised for doing that at times, and that could be enough to help the veteran Spaniard reach a Semi Final.
There is little doubt that Haase has the bigger serve of the two, but he does seem to lose his focus when it comes to the groundstrokes and that is where the uber-consistent Robredo could come through and win each set with a break more. There will be breaks of serve both ways, but I can see Robredo matching his 64, 64 win over Haase in Portugal on the clay courts last season.
Fabio Fognini - 4.5 games v Pablo Andujar: Over the last nine months, there hasn't been a player on the Tour in better form on the clay courts than Fabio Fognini as he continues in 2014 where he left off last summer.
This could be a strong season for the Italian if he can keep the momentum he has built up in that time by winning another title on the Golden Swing in South America, especially with the European clay court season around six weeks away.
Fognini hasn't just won matches, but he has been dismissing a lot of his opponents and I think it may be tough for Pablo Andujar to keep tabs on him, even if the Spaniard is very comfortable on the clay courts himself.
Neither player will dominate off the serve, but Fognini looks like he is playing confident, effective tennis off the ground and I think he will be able to knock off Andujar with room to spare in this one. I don't think I ever believed I would back Fognini with so many games being given up, but he is such hot form on the clay that he has to be backed here.
Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: Nicolas Almagro started off incredibly cold in his last match against Daniel Gimeno-Traver, but had another win to give him a boost after returning from injury. He served terribly in the first set, but found his rhythm in the final two sets and bringing that to this match will be important.
The amount of time he spent on court yesterday may have been a worry initially, but his opponent Jeremy Chardy had an even tougher encounter as he saved match points to see off Alexandr Dolgopolov.
This match should see both men looking to dictate things behind the serve, but that should be a strength for Almagro as well as the clay court pedigree that the Spaniard has. There is no doubt that Chardy can perform on the surface, but I think he can get a little frustrated with the longer rallies and may not have the patience to really get it going on the clay, although he will knock off 'lesser' opponents the majority of the time.
Unfortunately for Chardy, Almagro certainly is not one of the lesser opponents he will face and I think the latter will add to his four wins on the Tour over the Frenchman and come through a tough match 76, 64.
Yen-Hsun Lu - 3.5 games v Alex Kuznetsov: Any friends and family of Alex Kuznetsov must be proud of their guy as he finally won back to back matches on the Tour after a decade long career. Getting into his first Semi Final will be a big task against Yen-Hsun Lu who had to recover from a set down to beat Denis Kudla in the last Round and must be confident of getting further.
Lu has had a decent season already with one Final under his belt and he will feel he can get to another here in Memphis with Feliciano Lopez falling out of the draw. I also think the match under his belt will help Lu who should be too strong for a player that generally plays at the level below the main ATP one.
He has to be a little tougher when it comes to facing break points as he struggled under that pressure against Kudla, but he also created plenty of opportunities and you have to think he will do the same against an opponent who is of a similar level to Kudla.
As I said, Lu has to serve better, but I think the match under his belt will help a lot and I think he will come through with a break in each set for a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis + 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tommy Robredo - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Yen-Hsun Lu - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-5, - 1.02 Units (41 Units Staked, - 2.49% Yield)
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