Let's face facts here- there is only one game of importance to me this weekend and I am beginning to feel like a nervous wreck in anticipation of it.
It's the calm before the storm and I just know it is going to be a game that puts me through the wringer.
These are my picks from the weekend football after a pretty good start to December. Let us hope that continues as the month moves on.
Wigan Athletic v Queens Park Rangers Pick: This is a big game for both sides, especially for Queens Park Rangers who could be dead and buried in the Premier League with yet another defeat.
However, I think QPR will create chances in this game against a Wigan team that are down to their bare bones when it comes to defensive personnel in this one and they are not exactly a solid defensive team anyway with 7 of their last 8 home games in the Premier League seeing them concede at least 2 goals.
On the other hand, it is likely that Wigan will look to use the old saying of 'attack being the best form of defence' and I think they will also get opportunities as long as they not given another harsh sending off as they did at Newcastle United last Monday night.
Wigan have only failed to score against Chelsea and Manchester City this season at home and have beaten Reading and West Ham United here so this looks a game that has all the makings of goals and that will be my pick.
Sunderland v Chelsea Pick: Rafa Benitez did earn his first win as manager of Chelsea in the simple beating of Nordsjaelland during the week, but it will be a different test for them at the Stadium of Light. However, this does seem like a good time to play Sunderland as they have really been struggling for form and may be more interested in their big home game against Reading coming up during the week.
Chelsea have a good record here at Sunderland and I think they will likely have a bit too much for a team that has struggled to score goals all season. Sunderland have only scored 3 goals in their last 5 home games in all competitions, and even one of those was an own goal.
However, Chelsea haven't been the best defensively so I expect Sunderland to have some chances to up their goal tally in this one. It is hard to trust either one of these sides, but I just feel the added importance of Chelsea earning a win during the week, even in a futile effort to remain in the Champions League, will help them get through here.
I can see Chelsea picking up the three points, but by the minimum of margins.
Southampton v Reading Pick: After watching Reading at first hand last week against Manchester United, it is clear that their defending leaves a lot to be desired, while they are effective going forward.
With Southampton having a similar policy, this looks like a game that could be one of the higher scoring ones over the course of the whole weekend.
Neither team is better defensively than going forward so neither will sit back, although sometimes a 'relegation six pointer' can be tense affairs that stifles the creative players as managers are scared to lose rather than going to win the game. In saying that, I don't think either Brian McDermott or Nigel Adkins fall into that category and I think there is every chance we see at least 4 goals shared in this one.
The corresponding fixture ended 1-3 to Reading last season when both were promoted to the Premier League and I'll be looking for goals in this one.
Manchester City v Manchester United Pick: The biggest game of the weekend comes from the Etihad Stadium and I am both not looking forward to it and asking what it to be brought on.
I would be surprised if either of these teams decide to go all out attack for this fixture and am particularly concerned that Sir Alex Ferguson will set out United to defend in a manner similar to the game in April that effectively handed City the inside track to the Premier League title.
If the performance is as tepid on that evening, it will be inevitable that City will find the breakthrough and likely win the game. However, their swagger is not the same as at this stage last season when they were blitzing teams off the park and Arsenal, Everton and Swansea City have all limited City to just 1 goal here.
I know all the talk ahead of the game will be the amount of attacking talent both teams possess, but even United with all that ability have been held goalless at Everton and Norwich City this season and I just think the chances for goals in this game are not as great as the layers seem to think.
I am actually expecting a tight game that may only be decided by a single goal or finish as a 1-1 draw... The last 6 League games here have all be low-scoring games and I think we see more of the same on Sunday.
Everton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: A lot of Tottenham Hotspur supporters I know seem to be upset with the team performances and it seems the results they are obtaining are a form of smoke and mirrors to whether the team actually deserves those points.
They face the draw specialists of the Premier League in Everton and will be missing the services of Gareth Bale, a big loss in a game where the counter attack could be effective as Everton push forward.
Everton have 8 draws from their League games this season and have drawn 3 of their last 4 at Goodison Park, but they have been unfortunate to an extent. They just haven't put teams away when they have them under the cosh, but I think they will be too strong for Spurs in this one.
I just feel Spurs are a touch vulnerable at the back and the likes of Maruoane Fellaini and Nikica Jelavic will be able to cause plenty of problems. Everton have also beaten Spurs the last 2 times they have visited Goodison and I like the home side at odds against for a small interest.
West Ham United v Liverpool Pick: West Ham United were really impressive against Chelsea in the second half last week and if they can take that form into this game, I really fancy them to beat Liverpool and I don't quite no why they are the underdogs in this game.
Liverpool are missing their one and only centre forward in Luis Suarez and I struggle to see how they will score the goals without his presence in the side. Suarez either creates or scores the majority of the goals that Liverpool have scored so his absence is huge and there is a chance that Liverpool will not be able to play with a recognised striker.
That could give West Ham the chance to get on the front foot and I think they have been playing really well in recent weeks and could ride the momentum of last week to another win in front of their own fans this week.
At the prices, it would be silly not to have a small interest in the home side to win this game.
MY PICKS: Wigan Athletic-Queens Park Rangers Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chelsea to win by 1 Goal (English Handicap Draw) @ 3.80 Stan James (1 Unit)
Southampton-Reading Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Manchester City-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Everton @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
West Ham United @ 3.20 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
December Update: 9-7, + 3.70 Units (18 Units Staked, + 20.6 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
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NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)
We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland ...
Saturday, 8 December 2012
Tuesday, 4 December 2012
Midweek Football Picks (December 4-6)
This is the final round of games in the Champions League and the Europa League Group Stage and that does mean there are a number of teams that will rest players in anticipation of domestic League games with most of the scenarios for qualification already completed.
Therefore, you have to be careful in trying to second guess managers and what their policies will be and I would certainly suggest listening to as many press conferences as possible to get an idea as to what each manager is thinking ahead of their games.
Some teams also don't put so much faith in finishing top of their individual Groups as others, especially when you consider Real Madrid will be a 'second seed' when it comes to the draw which takes place on Thursday 20th December for the last 16. As Jose Mourinho said, it isn't much of a 'reward' to win a Group and potentially be drawn with Real Madrid who are certainly one of the leading contenders for the Champions League title this season.
While there are some games that will see much changed line ups, we also can see some strange results at this stage or convenient scores set up by teams... Shakhar Donetsk and Juventus could easily play out a draw which would send both sides through to the last 16 at the expense of Chelsea, regardless of what the current European Champions do in their final game against Nordsjaelland. The layers are aware of the situation so the draw is priced at odds on, prices you would never see in other games.
I have also updated the November final tally and you can see it was a disappointing month, but the season is still heavily in the black and the early results from December have been positive. This is going to be a busy month with the Christmas period meaning a lot of games going through a short period of time so let''s hope the first days of the month was a sign of things to come going forward.
Paris Saint-Germain v Porto Pick: This is one of the few games that has a real meaning behind it as top spot in the Group is up for grabs- Porto will win the Group as long as they avoid defeat in the French capital, while Paris Saint-Germain can steal top spot with a win.
Carlo Ancelotti is under a lot of pressure at Paris after a huge spending spree in the Summer has failed to ignite the results that would have been expecting in the French domestic League and that does mean he is looking for positives wherever he can find them. His side has won 7 of their last 9, but the 2 exceptions have been defeats and both of those have come in the last 4 games.
I think PSG have been a little vulnerable in recent games and that should lead to one of the more exciting games in the evening and I like the chances of goals in the game as both sides could create chances in this one.
Real Madrid v Ajax Pick: While all the talk in Madrid is about whether or not Jose Mourinho will be in charge of the club next Summer, Real Madrid are still concentrating on winning this Group game that doesn't have a great deal of meaning to them.
The side are locked into second spot in the Group no matter what happens in the final games, but that doesn't mean there will be sweeping changes to the first team and the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Kerim Benzema will be playing in this one.
Ajax were outclassed when they first met Real Madrid in Amsterdam and they have been comfortably beaten on their two previous visits to this ground in the last two seasons. Borussia Dortmund were also far too good for Ajax in their last game and I just think it will be a tough day in the office for the Dutch side.
Borussia Dortmund v Manchester City Pick: This might be a dead rubber for Borussia Dortmund, but both teams will still have pride to play for in what could be an entertaining game on Tuesday evening.
Both sides are certainly better going forward than they are defensively, and I think there is a reasonable chance that we will see space in this game and that could lead to a high-scoring contest.
Manchester City have been saying all the right things in the build up to this game and Roberto Mancini must be feeling some pressure from his superiors with another disappointing Champions League campaign under his belt.
Therefore, even getting the consolation prize of a Europa League spot is something that City will want to pick up and I wouldn't at all be surprised if there are at least 4 goals in the game at a decent price.
Montpellier v Schalke Pick: Montpellier may be knocked out of the Champions League and Europa League, but they will be playing for pride in this one as no one wants to end the Group Stage without a win.
They have lost both home games by the same 1-2 scoreline and Schalke certainly have the motivation and the form to think they may be the third side to manage that. However, the German side have lost 3 straight away games domestically which reduces my enthusiasm somewhat in backing them to win this one.
Schalke away games remain high-scoring affairs as they have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 games while they had scored at least 2 goals in 9 straight away games before only managing 1 in their last 2 games.
I think this could be the third high-scoring game of the evening and at odds against it looks worth chancing.
Chelsea v Nordsjaelland Pick: Rafa Benitez was a terrible choice as manager for Chelsea as far as I am concerned and the fans are still upset with the side performing really badly in their first 3 games under the Spaniard's watch.
However, this looks a perfect tonic to their woes which has seen them record just 1 win in their last 11 games in all competitions, despite the fact that Chelsea are very much looking like their defence of the Champions League ends at the Group Stage this season.
Nordsjaelland have conceded at least 4 goals in 3 of their 5 Group Stage games in the Champions League and they do look vulnerable at the back. I expect a strong side to take to the field to build confidence for Chelsea in this game and I think they will likely pull away to a convincing victory in this one.
Manchester United v Cluj: This is a tough game to read as Manchester United will be making wholesale changes to their team ahead of the Manchester derby this weekend. Cluj are a decent counter-attacking side that will likely cause problems for United during this game, but I expect Old Trafford will be a little daunting for them and it will be tough for them to pick up a result that could potentially see them through to the last 16.
I don't have a great angle and insight into the game with changes likely to make this is a 'bitty' game, but Sir Alex Ferguson has suggested Wayne Rooney will start and that is where I will focus my attention.
Rooney got a brace at Reading and he is the kind of player that goes on runs of really good form in front of goal and I think those goals at the Majedski Stadium will set him up over this Christmas period. He will be the designated penalty taker on Wednesday night and will also probably behind any free kicks within shooting range so he looks a lively contender to open the scoring in this one as long as United don't decide to fall behind yet again this season.
Bayern Munich v BATE Borisov Pick: Bayern Munich were embarrassed when they fell to a 3-1 loss in Belarus earlier on in the Group, but they have recovered to the point that a win in this one will ensure they top the Group.
So with revenge for the earlier loss and real motivation behind them to top the Group, I think BATE Borisov could be in a real spot of bother here. Remember when Basel stunned Bayern Munich with a 1-0 win in the last 16 last season? The Bavarians decided to teach them a lesson with a 7-0 home win and they also smashed 6 past Lille earlier this campaign.
I don't think Bayern will score 6 or 7 tonight, but can see them reaching 4 or 5 as BATE have looked a little suspect defensively in their last 3 Champions League games and have already secured a Europa League berth. The home side may be resting some players after a gruelling game with Borussia Dortmund at the weekend, but I think the prize on offer to win the Group keeps them focused and revenge will be theirs.
Tottenham Hotspur v Panathinaikos Pick: This is the first pick of two from the Europa League and I think Tottenham Hotspur will be a little too strong for their Greek opponents and should be able to win the game with a little room to spare.
It is true that Spurs only need a point to progress, but it can be dangerous to play for that scoreline as a Panthinaikos win would see them through at Tottenham's expense.
However, Panathinaikos are not exactly the best travellers when it comes to European games and they have already lost 3-0 at both Maribor and Lazio in this Group already to make it three consecutive losses by that scoreline in this competition. They were also beaten 2-0 at Malaga in the Champions League Play Offs.
Gareth Bale is out, but Emmanuel Adebayor is back and this Spurs team still has goals in it. I also expect they could cause plenty of problems on the counter attack with the away side needing a win to go through and they could use the pace of Aaron Lennon and Jermaine Defoe to get away another killer goal.
All in all, the 2.35 that Spurs win by at least 2 goals looks a little too generous to me.
Udinese v Liverpool Pick: After playing a lot of fringe players for much of this competition, Brendan Rodgers has taken a strong side to Italy in a bid to help Liverpool achieve the result they need to progress through to the last 32 of the Europa League. It is simple for Liverpool in this one- win and they are through, draw and they need Young Boys to fail to beat an already qualified Anzhi Machachkala, lose and they are out.
Udinese have no permutations to worry about as they have already been knocked out of the tournament, but they are looking to build some momentum after a poor run of form saw them win their first game in 8 at the weekend.
They have insisted they will get on the front foot in this one and this does have the makings of a high-scoring game.
Udinese's last 4 home games in all competitions has seen at least 3 goals scored and 3 of their 5 games in this Group have also seen that number covered. Liverpool themselves have also played in high-scoring games in 3 of their 5 in the Group while 5 of their last 8 away in all competitions has seen goals.
With Liverpool needing to obtain the win to be sure of their place in the last 32, I expect them on the attack to ensure that is done and this could be a game with space to be exploited... However, we have to hope Anzhi don't take a big lead over Young Boys in the other game as that could be infiltrated to the players on the pitch and Liverpool may be more content to settle with whatever positive result they have at that time.
MY PICKS: PSG-Porto Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Borussia Dortmund-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Montpellier-Schalke Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Wayne Rooney First Goalscorer @ 5.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Bayern Munich - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.35 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Udinese-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
December Update: 4-3, + 2.35 Units (9 Units Staked, + 26.1 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Therefore, you have to be careful in trying to second guess managers and what their policies will be and I would certainly suggest listening to as many press conferences as possible to get an idea as to what each manager is thinking ahead of their games.
Some teams also don't put so much faith in finishing top of their individual Groups as others, especially when you consider Real Madrid will be a 'second seed' when it comes to the draw which takes place on Thursday 20th December for the last 16. As Jose Mourinho said, it isn't much of a 'reward' to win a Group and potentially be drawn with Real Madrid who are certainly one of the leading contenders for the Champions League title this season.
While there are some games that will see much changed line ups, we also can see some strange results at this stage or convenient scores set up by teams... Shakhar Donetsk and Juventus could easily play out a draw which would send both sides through to the last 16 at the expense of Chelsea, regardless of what the current European Champions do in their final game against Nordsjaelland. The layers are aware of the situation so the draw is priced at odds on, prices you would never see in other games.
I have also updated the November final tally and you can see it was a disappointing month, but the season is still heavily in the black and the early results from December have been positive. This is going to be a busy month with the Christmas period meaning a lot of games going through a short period of time so let''s hope the first days of the month was a sign of things to come going forward.
Paris Saint-Germain v Porto Pick: This is one of the few games that has a real meaning behind it as top spot in the Group is up for grabs- Porto will win the Group as long as they avoid defeat in the French capital, while Paris Saint-Germain can steal top spot with a win.
Carlo Ancelotti is under a lot of pressure at Paris after a huge spending spree in the Summer has failed to ignite the results that would have been expecting in the French domestic League and that does mean he is looking for positives wherever he can find them. His side has won 7 of their last 9, but the 2 exceptions have been defeats and both of those have come in the last 4 games.
I think PSG have been a little vulnerable in recent games and that should lead to one of the more exciting games in the evening and I like the chances of goals in the game as both sides could create chances in this one.
Real Madrid v Ajax Pick: While all the talk in Madrid is about whether or not Jose Mourinho will be in charge of the club next Summer, Real Madrid are still concentrating on winning this Group game that doesn't have a great deal of meaning to them.
The side are locked into second spot in the Group no matter what happens in the final games, but that doesn't mean there will be sweeping changes to the first team and the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Kerim Benzema will be playing in this one.
Ajax were outclassed when they first met Real Madrid in Amsterdam and they have been comfortably beaten on their two previous visits to this ground in the last two seasons. Borussia Dortmund were also far too good for Ajax in their last game and I just think it will be a tough day in the office for the Dutch side.
Borussia Dortmund v Manchester City Pick: This might be a dead rubber for Borussia Dortmund, but both teams will still have pride to play for in what could be an entertaining game on Tuesday evening.
Both sides are certainly better going forward than they are defensively, and I think there is a reasonable chance that we will see space in this game and that could lead to a high-scoring contest.
Manchester City have been saying all the right things in the build up to this game and Roberto Mancini must be feeling some pressure from his superiors with another disappointing Champions League campaign under his belt.
Therefore, even getting the consolation prize of a Europa League spot is something that City will want to pick up and I wouldn't at all be surprised if there are at least 4 goals in the game at a decent price.
Montpellier v Schalke Pick: Montpellier may be knocked out of the Champions League and Europa League, but they will be playing for pride in this one as no one wants to end the Group Stage without a win.
They have lost both home games by the same 1-2 scoreline and Schalke certainly have the motivation and the form to think they may be the third side to manage that. However, the German side have lost 3 straight away games domestically which reduces my enthusiasm somewhat in backing them to win this one.
Schalke away games remain high-scoring affairs as they have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 games while they had scored at least 2 goals in 9 straight away games before only managing 1 in their last 2 games.
I think this could be the third high-scoring game of the evening and at odds against it looks worth chancing.
Chelsea v Nordsjaelland Pick: Rafa Benitez was a terrible choice as manager for Chelsea as far as I am concerned and the fans are still upset with the side performing really badly in their first 3 games under the Spaniard's watch.
However, this looks a perfect tonic to their woes which has seen them record just 1 win in their last 11 games in all competitions, despite the fact that Chelsea are very much looking like their defence of the Champions League ends at the Group Stage this season.
Nordsjaelland have conceded at least 4 goals in 3 of their 5 Group Stage games in the Champions League and they do look vulnerable at the back. I expect a strong side to take to the field to build confidence for Chelsea in this game and I think they will likely pull away to a convincing victory in this one.
Manchester United v Cluj: This is a tough game to read as Manchester United will be making wholesale changes to their team ahead of the Manchester derby this weekend. Cluj are a decent counter-attacking side that will likely cause problems for United during this game, but I expect Old Trafford will be a little daunting for them and it will be tough for them to pick up a result that could potentially see them through to the last 16.
I don't have a great angle and insight into the game with changes likely to make this is a 'bitty' game, but Sir Alex Ferguson has suggested Wayne Rooney will start and that is where I will focus my attention.
Rooney got a brace at Reading and he is the kind of player that goes on runs of really good form in front of goal and I think those goals at the Majedski Stadium will set him up over this Christmas period. He will be the designated penalty taker on Wednesday night and will also probably behind any free kicks within shooting range so he looks a lively contender to open the scoring in this one as long as United don't decide to fall behind yet again this season.
Bayern Munich v BATE Borisov Pick: Bayern Munich were embarrassed when they fell to a 3-1 loss in Belarus earlier on in the Group, but they have recovered to the point that a win in this one will ensure they top the Group.
So with revenge for the earlier loss and real motivation behind them to top the Group, I think BATE Borisov could be in a real spot of bother here. Remember when Basel stunned Bayern Munich with a 1-0 win in the last 16 last season? The Bavarians decided to teach them a lesson with a 7-0 home win and they also smashed 6 past Lille earlier this campaign.
I don't think Bayern will score 6 or 7 tonight, but can see them reaching 4 or 5 as BATE have looked a little suspect defensively in their last 3 Champions League games and have already secured a Europa League berth. The home side may be resting some players after a gruelling game with Borussia Dortmund at the weekend, but I think the prize on offer to win the Group keeps them focused and revenge will be theirs.
Tottenham Hotspur v Panathinaikos Pick: This is the first pick of two from the Europa League and I think Tottenham Hotspur will be a little too strong for their Greek opponents and should be able to win the game with a little room to spare.
It is true that Spurs only need a point to progress, but it can be dangerous to play for that scoreline as a Panthinaikos win would see them through at Tottenham's expense.
However, Panathinaikos are not exactly the best travellers when it comes to European games and they have already lost 3-0 at both Maribor and Lazio in this Group already to make it three consecutive losses by that scoreline in this competition. They were also beaten 2-0 at Malaga in the Champions League Play Offs.
Gareth Bale is out, but Emmanuel Adebayor is back and this Spurs team still has goals in it. I also expect they could cause plenty of problems on the counter attack with the away side needing a win to go through and they could use the pace of Aaron Lennon and Jermaine Defoe to get away another killer goal.
All in all, the 2.35 that Spurs win by at least 2 goals looks a little too generous to me.
Udinese v Liverpool Pick: After playing a lot of fringe players for much of this competition, Brendan Rodgers has taken a strong side to Italy in a bid to help Liverpool achieve the result they need to progress through to the last 32 of the Europa League. It is simple for Liverpool in this one- win and they are through, draw and they need Young Boys to fail to beat an already qualified Anzhi Machachkala, lose and they are out.
Udinese have no permutations to worry about as they have already been knocked out of the tournament, but they are looking to build some momentum after a poor run of form saw them win their first game in 8 at the weekend.
They have insisted they will get on the front foot in this one and this does have the makings of a high-scoring game.
Udinese's last 4 home games in all competitions has seen at least 3 goals scored and 3 of their 5 games in this Group have also seen that number covered. Liverpool themselves have also played in high-scoring games in 3 of their 5 in the Group while 5 of their last 8 away in all competitions has seen goals.
With Liverpool needing to obtain the win to be sure of their place in the last 32, I expect them on the attack to ensure that is done and this could be a game with space to be exploited... However, we have to hope Anzhi don't take a big lead over Young Boys in the other game as that could be infiltrated to the players on the pitch and Liverpool may be more content to settle with whatever positive result they have at that time.
MY PICKS: PSG-Porto Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Borussia Dortmund-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Montpellier-Schalke Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Wayne Rooney First Goalscorer @ 5.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Bayern Munich - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.35 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Udinese-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
December Update: 4-3, + 2.35 Units (9 Units Staked, + 26.1 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Saturday, 1 December 2012
College Football Week 14 Picks 2012
It is the end of the season today as teams play their Championship Games while other schools finish their regular season in the hope that they will be playing in a Bowl Game in the coming six weeks.
These are my picks from the final week of the regular season.
Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Baylor Bears Pick: I am going to back the Cowboys to cover the spread in an entertaining game for the following reasons:
First, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have dominated the recent series, winning 6 in a row by 32 points per game.
Second, the Cowboys look the better team on both sides of the ball although I am expecting a lot of points in the game. I just feel they will make more stops when it is all said and done.
Third, the Cowboys are 11-2 against the spread as the road favourite in the last few seasons.
Kansas Jayhawks @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: I'll take West Virginia to end a disappointing season on a high ahead of their Bowl Game and back them to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I fully expect the Mountaineers to move the chains all day and score plenty of points and I don't believe Kansas will be able to keep up despite the porous Defense that West Virginia have.
Second, Kansas have struggled all season and don't exactly get up for being the road underdog as they are 2-7-1 against the spread in that spot since the beginning of last season.
Third, the Mountaineers do usually finish their home season on a high; they are 11-3 straight up in that spot and I just think they overmatch the Jayhawks in this one.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns @ Florida Atlantic Owls Pick: I like the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns, not just because of their great name, but for the following reasons:
First, Louisiana don't have the best record against the Owls, but they do look the better units on both sides of the ball tonight and that should help them just about pull away at the end of the game.
Second, there is also an advantage for the Ragin Cajuns at the Quarter Back position and that should see them win by more than a touchdown.
Third, I expect Louisiana to try and build some momentum ahead of their Bowl Game and I think they will be a little too strong for Florida Atlantic in this Conference game.
Cincinnati Bearcats @ Connecticut Huskies Pick: I will back the home underdog to at least keep this game close for the following reasons:
First, Connecticut may be 2-6 in this series, but they have blown out Cincinnati in 2 games in a row.
Second, this game does mean more to the home team as they can become Bowl eligible with a win, while the Bearcats can't win the Big East now and have already won enough games to be invited to a post-season game.
Third, Connecticut do match up well with Cincinnati on the field and it looks like this is going to be a close game throughout which makes the points very handy.
Fourth, the Huskies are 13-2-1 against the spread as a home underdog in the last few seasons.
Georgia Bulldogs v Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: This is the SEC Championship Game and the winner is likely to be playing for the National Championship in January. I think Alabama will win the game, but I like the Georgia Bulldogs to cover the spread with the points for the following reasons:
First, I like Aaron Murray more than AJ McCarron and I think he can make enough plays to help the Bulldogs keep this close in what is a closely matched game.
Second, the Bulldogs should be the fresher team with Alabama having to negotiate a tougher schedule through the regular season.
Third, Alabama are just 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 games while Georgia are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games and seem to have the momentum behind them.
Pittsburgh Panthers @ South Florida Bulls Pick: I like the Pittsburgh Panthers in this game to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Bulls have to be disappointed and a little flat in what has been a disappointing season and they are missing their big time starter BJ Daniels at Quarter Back.
Second, the Panthers have won 4 in a row in the series by 17 points per game and it is hard to know how South Florida keep up in this one without their star player.
Third, Pittsburgh are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games, while South Florida are 1-4-1 in their last 6.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets v Florida State Seminoles Pick: This is the ACC Championship Game and I am going to back the Florida State Seminoles to win the game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Florida State's Defense has been strong on the ground and will be upset with the 244 yards they gave up to the Florida Gators last weekend and I think they will have some success against the triple option run by Georgia Tech and that could make all the difference.
Second, the Seminoles are the much better team as they are in this game on merit, while the Georgia Tech team got in because Miami and North Carolina are ineligible this season.
Third, Florida State are 11-1 against the spread in their last 12 games on a neutral field while Georgia Tech are 2-7 against the spread in that situation.
Nebraska Cornhuskers v Wisconsin Badgers Pick: This is the Big Ten Championship Game and I think it is worth backing Wisconsin with the points to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Wisconsin pushed Nebraska all the way on the road in the regular season and I think they are playing better than the 3 losses from 4 would suggest. The Badgers have lost all of those games in overtime which shows how close they have been.
Second, both teams are really well matched and both Defensive units will feel they are better than the Offenses they have faced and that could lead to a low-scoring game where even 3 points looks very big.
MY PICKS: Oklahoma State Cowboys - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
West Virginia Mountaineers - 20 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Connecticut Huskies + 5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs + 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Panthers - 7 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 14 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers + 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
These are my picks from the final week of the regular season.
Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Baylor Bears Pick: I am going to back the Cowboys to cover the spread in an entertaining game for the following reasons:
First, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have dominated the recent series, winning 6 in a row by 32 points per game.
Second, the Cowboys look the better team on both sides of the ball although I am expecting a lot of points in the game. I just feel they will make more stops when it is all said and done.
Third, the Cowboys are 11-2 against the spread as the road favourite in the last few seasons.
Kansas Jayhawks @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: I'll take West Virginia to end a disappointing season on a high ahead of their Bowl Game and back them to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I fully expect the Mountaineers to move the chains all day and score plenty of points and I don't believe Kansas will be able to keep up despite the porous Defense that West Virginia have.
Second, Kansas have struggled all season and don't exactly get up for being the road underdog as they are 2-7-1 against the spread in that spot since the beginning of last season.
Third, the Mountaineers do usually finish their home season on a high; they are 11-3 straight up in that spot and I just think they overmatch the Jayhawks in this one.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns @ Florida Atlantic Owls Pick: I like the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns, not just because of their great name, but for the following reasons:
First, Louisiana don't have the best record against the Owls, but they do look the better units on both sides of the ball tonight and that should help them just about pull away at the end of the game.
Second, there is also an advantage for the Ragin Cajuns at the Quarter Back position and that should see them win by more than a touchdown.
Third, I expect Louisiana to try and build some momentum ahead of their Bowl Game and I think they will be a little too strong for Florida Atlantic in this Conference game.
Cincinnati Bearcats @ Connecticut Huskies Pick: I will back the home underdog to at least keep this game close for the following reasons:
First, Connecticut may be 2-6 in this series, but they have blown out Cincinnati in 2 games in a row.
Second, this game does mean more to the home team as they can become Bowl eligible with a win, while the Bearcats can't win the Big East now and have already won enough games to be invited to a post-season game.
Third, Connecticut do match up well with Cincinnati on the field and it looks like this is going to be a close game throughout which makes the points very handy.
Fourth, the Huskies are 13-2-1 against the spread as a home underdog in the last few seasons.
Georgia Bulldogs v Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: This is the SEC Championship Game and the winner is likely to be playing for the National Championship in January. I think Alabama will win the game, but I like the Georgia Bulldogs to cover the spread with the points for the following reasons:
First, I like Aaron Murray more than AJ McCarron and I think he can make enough plays to help the Bulldogs keep this close in what is a closely matched game.
Second, the Bulldogs should be the fresher team with Alabama having to negotiate a tougher schedule through the regular season.
Third, Alabama are just 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 games while Georgia are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games and seem to have the momentum behind them.
Pittsburgh Panthers @ South Florida Bulls Pick: I like the Pittsburgh Panthers in this game to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Bulls have to be disappointed and a little flat in what has been a disappointing season and they are missing their big time starter BJ Daniels at Quarter Back.
Second, the Panthers have won 4 in a row in the series by 17 points per game and it is hard to know how South Florida keep up in this one without their star player.
Third, Pittsburgh are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games, while South Florida are 1-4-1 in their last 6.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets v Florida State Seminoles Pick: This is the ACC Championship Game and I am going to back the Florida State Seminoles to win the game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Florida State's Defense has been strong on the ground and will be upset with the 244 yards they gave up to the Florida Gators last weekend and I think they will have some success against the triple option run by Georgia Tech and that could make all the difference.
Second, the Seminoles are the much better team as they are in this game on merit, while the Georgia Tech team got in because Miami and North Carolina are ineligible this season.
Third, Florida State are 11-1 against the spread in their last 12 games on a neutral field while Georgia Tech are 2-7 against the spread in that situation.
Nebraska Cornhuskers v Wisconsin Badgers Pick: This is the Big Ten Championship Game and I think it is worth backing Wisconsin with the points to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Wisconsin pushed Nebraska all the way on the road in the regular season and I think they are playing better than the 3 losses from 4 would suggest. The Badgers have lost all of those games in overtime which shows how close they have been.
Second, both teams are really well matched and both Defensive units will feel they are better than the Offenses they have faced and that could lead to a low-scoring game where even 3 points looks very big.
MY PICKS: Oklahoma State Cowboys - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
West Virginia Mountaineers - 20 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Connecticut Huskies + 5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs + 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Panthers - 7 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 14 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers + 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Weekend Football Picks (December 1-3)
The weekend football picks are below... I will update the season profit/loss in the Midweek Football Picks before the Champions League games during the week.
West Ham United v Chelsea Pick: Chelsea fans are right to be upset with the direction the club took by employing Rafa Benitez, particularly considering the fractured relationship he had with those fans while manager of Liverpool.
The back to back goalless draws has hardly inspired and this is a far tougher game than the layers clearly think it is. West Ham United have shown enough at Old Trafford during the week that suggests they can at least get a point from this game and holding Manchester City here also backs up that thinking.
I just can't see how Chelsea are so short in the market on current form which has seen them win 1 in 10 and backing West Ham to avoid defeat looks the best way to get involved.
Liverpool v Southampton Pick: Liverpool have won just 4 of 16 home games in the Premier League during this calender year and that makes them far too short in the markets to win this game.
Southampton should be full of confidence after picking up 8 points from a possible 12, but I don't trust them fully defensively to think they can hold Liverpool here.
However, I think Southampton do have something about them and they do look a side that could push Liverpool as long as they don't make the defensive errors that have blighted them this season. Liverpool are too short as I mentioned and I will back the Saints with a 1.5 goal head start.
Manchester City v Everton Pick: Everton are playing very well at the moment, although they are not turning draws into wins despite their performances. They will feel confident they can shock Manchester City here as they have won 8 of the last 10 games between the teams, but I just think City may have turned a corner with their own recent results.
I think this will be close, but I have a feeling City continue with the momentum ahead of the Manchester derby next weekend, but this could be a close game and backing the home side to win by a single goal looks the way to go.
Queens Park Rangers v Aston Villa Pick: A relegation six pointer might be a bit over-dramatic before Christmas, but don't tell me that Queens Park Rangers are not going to be in big trouble if they lose this game, the first Harry Redknapp will be in charge of at Loftus Road.
Both teams should attack from the off with the three points being so important and I think both defences have shown enough vulnerabilities to think that goals is in the offing in the game.
Both sides have conceded 14 goals in their home and away games respectively and we could see those tallies added to on Saturday afternoon.
Reading v Manchester United Pick: I think Manchester United are going to have too many attacking options for Reading when all is said and done in this match, but it is hard to find a really good angle in United games with the way they have been erratic all season.
However, one element that stands out to me is the lack of clean sheets achieved by United away from home, something that I believe will be exploited by Reading who have been scoring freely at home for the most part this season.
I imagine United will come through with a 1-3 scoreline so taking both teams to score with an away win looks the call.
West Brom v Stoke City Pick: West Brom may just have had their bubble burst when Swansea over ran them in a 3-1 win at the Liberty Stadium and this is a game where they have regularly struggled in the recent past.
Stoke City have been playing better themselves to ensure they are not involved in a relegation scrap and I think they could be the first team to win at the Hawthornes this season.
However, I just don't have enough faith in Stoke who are not a great team on their travels so will back them on the draw no bet market.
Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend and I think taking the over 3.5 goals could be the way to go.
Both sides will be playing attacking football and Fulham have been involved with a number of high-scoring games as they have been vulnerable defensively while also showing enough attacking creativity to cause problems for other teams.
Spurs themselves have been vulnerable all season at the back as Andre Villas-Boas tries to employ new methods at the club, but the likes of Aaron Lennon, Gareth Bale and Jermaine Defoe should also be able to create chances and score goals.
Half of the last 8 games at Craven Cottage has seen at least 4 goals shared by the teams and that is my call for a small interest in this one.
MY PICKS: West Ham + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester City to win by 1 Goal exactly @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Queens Park Rangers-Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Stoke City Draw No Bet @ 2.75 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Fulham-Tottenham Hotspur Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
West Ham United v Chelsea Pick: Chelsea fans are right to be upset with the direction the club took by employing Rafa Benitez, particularly considering the fractured relationship he had with those fans while manager of Liverpool.
The back to back goalless draws has hardly inspired and this is a far tougher game than the layers clearly think it is. West Ham United have shown enough at Old Trafford during the week that suggests they can at least get a point from this game and holding Manchester City here also backs up that thinking.
I just can't see how Chelsea are so short in the market on current form which has seen them win 1 in 10 and backing West Ham to avoid defeat looks the best way to get involved.
Liverpool v Southampton Pick: Liverpool have won just 4 of 16 home games in the Premier League during this calender year and that makes them far too short in the markets to win this game.
Southampton should be full of confidence after picking up 8 points from a possible 12, but I don't trust them fully defensively to think they can hold Liverpool here.
However, I think Southampton do have something about them and they do look a side that could push Liverpool as long as they don't make the defensive errors that have blighted them this season. Liverpool are too short as I mentioned and I will back the Saints with a 1.5 goal head start.
Manchester City v Everton Pick: Everton are playing very well at the moment, although they are not turning draws into wins despite their performances. They will feel confident they can shock Manchester City here as they have won 8 of the last 10 games between the teams, but I just think City may have turned a corner with their own recent results.
I think this will be close, but I have a feeling City continue with the momentum ahead of the Manchester derby next weekend, but this could be a close game and backing the home side to win by a single goal looks the way to go.
Queens Park Rangers v Aston Villa Pick: A relegation six pointer might be a bit over-dramatic before Christmas, but don't tell me that Queens Park Rangers are not going to be in big trouble if they lose this game, the first Harry Redknapp will be in charge of at Loftus Road.
Both teams should attack from the off with the three points being so important and I think both defences have shown enough vulnerabilities to think that goals is in the offing in the game.
Both sides have conceded 14 goals in their home and away games respectively and we could see those tallies added to on Saturday afternoon.
Reading v Manchester United Pick: I think Manchester United are going to have too many attacking options for Reading when all is said and done in this match, but it is hard to find a really good angle in United games with the way they have been erratic all season.
However, one element that stands out to me is the lack of clean sheets achieved by United away from home, something that I believe will be exploited by Reading who have been scoring freely at home for the most part this season.
I imagine United will come through with a 1-3 scoreline so taking both teams to score with an away win looks the call.
West Brom v Stoke City Pick: West Brom may just have had their bubble burst when Swansea over ran them in a 3-1 win at the Liberty Stadium and this is a game where they have regularly struggled in the recent past.
Stoke City have been playing better themselves to ensure they are not involved in a relegation scrap and I think they could be the first team to win at the Hawthornes this season.
However, I just don't have enough faith in Stoke who are not a great team on their travels so will back them on the draw no bet market.
Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend and I think taking the over 3.5 goals could be the way to go.
Both sides will be playing attacking football and Fulham have been involved with a number of high-scoring games as they have been vulnerable defensively while also showing enough attacking creativity to cause problems for other teams.
Spurs themselves have been vulnerable all season at the back as Andre Villas-Boas tries to employ new methods at the club, but the likes of Aaron Lennon, Gareth Bale and Jermaine Defoe should also be able to create chances and score goals.
Half of the last 8 games at Craven Cottage has seen at least 4 goals shared by the teams and that is my call for a small interest in this one.
MY PICKS: West Ham + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester City to win by 1 Goal exactly @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Queens Park Rangers-Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Stoke City Draw No Bet @ 2.75 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Fulham-Tottenham Hotspur Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Thursday, 29 November 2012
NFL Week 13 Picks 2012
Another week has flown by and I think the new Thursday night game has not helped matters as work takes priority during the week.
However, this week I thought I'd have a quick look at the Divisions and how things are shaping up as we fast approach the Play Offs.
This was my pre-season preview of the AFC Conference
And this was my pre-season preview of the NFC Conference
In the AFC East, you will notice that New England have pretty much reached the expectations that I had for them, although they may not be quite good enough to pick up the Number 1 seed in the Conference as I thought they could.
The rest of the teams have surprised me, although Miami have reached my initial expectations for them rather than the lowered targets. Buffalo have been the biggest disappointment in this Division and the New York Jets blow up has hardly been a surprise to anyone.
The Baltimore Ravens are on course to win the AFC North, although I only expected them to finish behind the Pittsburgh Steelers and earn a Wild Card spot. Injuries are really hurting the Steelers and they look a really vulnerable side when it comes to making the Play Offs, especially if they can't stop turning the ball over and Ben Roethlisberger misses extended time.
Cincinnati could be the team that takes advantage, but they still have a tough road to negotiate if they are to make the most of their winning record at this stage. The Browns are performing as expected and I doubt they surpass the 4 wins that I believed was the maximum they earn this season.
The AFC South hasn't surprised in some aspects as Houston lead the Division and Jacksonville are in the basement... The Texans have already reached double digits and look like they could earn the Number 1 seed in the Conference, while the Jaguars look set to fall short of the 5 wins they managed last season.
Tennessee have also not surpassed expectations as I believed they would likely end with a losing record and are 2 losses from that situation. However, I couldn't have been more wrong about the Indianapolis Colts as I didn't think they would be close to a winning record. The Colts have been so surprising that they could be in line to make the Play Offs as a Wild Card team, and I doubt even Jim Irsay would have been expecting that this season in what was a rebuilding year... Interestingly, if the Play Offs started today, the Colts would be visiting Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card Round.
Speaking of Denver, Manning has been excellent and has helped them far exceed what I thought the Broncos would achieve... I projected another 8-8 season for them this season, but they are already 8-3 and look in total control of the AFC West.
I had believed in San Diego again this season, but they need to win out if they are to finish with a winning record and even the Play Offs looks a stretch for them. Both Oakland and Kansas City have been poor this season, with the latter in the best position to finish with the Number 1 pick in the Draft next April.
The NFC East was always a tough Division to project, but the performance of Philadelphia has been far worse than what most would have expected. Andy Reid is likely to be on the way out as is Michael Vick and the Eagles are virtually set to have a losing record.
I had projected the Giants to finish 9-7 and that looks a record that could see them win the Division, while they are on course to surpass that projection at 7-4 already. I also tipped Dallas to be either 8-8 with the possibility of going a win or loss either side of that mark and they look set to finish around that number.
The biggest surprise so far is Washington as I didn't think they would reach 5 wins for the season, but they are already at that mark and have a chance of making the Play Offs, but that could all depend on whether they can beat the Giants at home on Monday Night Football this week.
The Green Bay Packers were my pick in the NFC North and I still think they will do that, although they won't be reaching the 13 wins I had projected for them this season. That is mainly down to a couple of bits of bad luck, especially the loss in Seattle and a disappointing defeat to the Colts despite being up big in that game.
In pre-season, I couldn't separate the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions and while the former is on course to reach the record I projected, the latter has been a huge disappointment and will be missing the Play Offs this season. Minnesota have surpassed the 3 wins from last season as expected, but I didn't have them finishing outside of the basement in the Division, although that does look the case at this moment.
As with many, the New Orleans Saints have severely under-achieved from my pre-season expectations, although it says a lot about the character in the team that they are still in a position to enter the Play Offs despite a 0-4 start. The NFC South is in control of the Atlanta Falcons, a team that I thought could win the Division with a bit of luck, but one I did not see winning double digit games this season, something that has already been surpassed.
Carolina are going to be a disappointment as I had believed they will reach the same record as last season, but that looks to be a step too far as they need to win 3 of their last 5 games to do so. I had tipped Tampa Bay to reach 6 or 7 wins, but they have responded to Greg Schiano and they are set to finish at least 0.500 for the season with 2 more wins avoiding a losing record.
The NFC West was probably the easiest Division to pick in the NFL this season and I don't think too many people will be surprised by the way it is shaping up. I had picked San Francisco to reach double-digit wins again this season and take the title, which they are well on course to do so, while I also projected Seattle to come behind them.
However, the Seahawks have managed the surprise wins that they needed to avoid a 7-9 record that I had picked for them, although I still think they come up short for the Play Offs.
St Louis have also doubled last seasons wins as expected, and Arizona are set for another losing record (although at 4-0, I thought the Cardinals could surpass expectations massively).
First, this spread does seem an over-reaction to the New Orleans loss last week when it was only a couple of pick sixes that cost the Saints the game.
However, this week I thought I'd have a quick look at the Divisions and how things are shaping up as we fast approach the Play Offs.
This was my pre-season preview of the AFC Conference
And this was my pre-season preview of the NFC Conference
In the AFC East, you will notice that New England have pretty much reached the expectations that I had for them, although they may not be quite good enough to pick up the Number 1 seed in the Conference as I thought they could.
The rest of the teams have surprised me, although Miami have reached my initial expectations for them rather than the lowered targets. Buffalo have been the biggest disappointment in this Division and the New York Jets blow up has hardly been a surprise to anyone.
The Baltimore Ravens are on course to win the AFC North, although I only expected them to finish behind the Pittsburgh Steelers and earn a Wild Card spot. Injuries are really hurting the Steelers and they look a really vulnerable side when it comes to making the Play Offs, especially if they can't stop turning the ball over and Ben Roethlisberger misses extended time.
Cincinnati could be the team that takes advantage, but they still have a tough road to negotiate if they are to make the most of their winning record at this stage. The Browns are performing as expected and I doubt they surpass the 4 wins that I believed was the maximum they earn this season.
The AFC South hasn't surprised in some aspects as Houston lead the Division and Jacksonville are in the basement... The Texans have already reached double digits and look like they could earn the Number 1 seed in the Conference, while the Jaguars look set to fall short of the 5 wins they managed last season.
Tennessee have also not surpassed expectations as I believed they would likely end with a losing record and are 2 losses from that situation. However, I couldn't have been more wrong about the Indianapolis Colts as I didn't think they would be close to a winning record. The Colts have been so surprising that they could be in line to make the Play Offs as a Wild Card team, and I doubt even Jim Irsay would have been expecting that this season in what was a rebuilding year... Interestingly, if the Play Offs started today, the Colts would be visiting Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card Round.
Speaking of Denver, Manning has been excellent and has helped them far exceed what I thought the Broncos would achieve... I projected another 8-8 season for them this season, but they are already 8-3 and look in total control of the AFC West.
I had believed in San Diego again this season, but they need to win out if they are to finish with a winning record and even the Play Offs looks a stretch for them. Both Oakland and Kansas City have been poor this season, with the latter in the best position to finish with the Number 1 pick in the Draft next April.
The NFC East was always a tough Division to project, but the performance of Philadelphia has been far worse than what most would have expected. Andy Reid is likely to be on the way out as is Michael Vick and the Eagles are virtually set to have a losing record.
I had projected the Giants to finish 9-7 and that looks a record that could see them win the Division, while they are on course to surpass that projection at 7-4 already. I also tipped Dallas to be either 8-8 with the possibility of going a win or loss either side of that mark and they look set to finish around that number.
The biggest surprise so far is Washington as I didn't think they would reach 5 wins for the season, but they are already at that mark and have a chance of making the Play Offs, but that could all depend on whether they can beat the Giants at home on Monday Night Football this week.
The Green Bay Packers were my pick in the NFC North and I still think they will do that, although they won't be reaching the 13 wins I had projected for them this season. That is mainly down to a couple of bits of bad luck, especially the loss in Seattle and a disappointing defeat to the Colts despite being up big in that game.
In pre-season, I couldn't separate the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions and while the former is on course to reach the record I projected, the latter has been a huge disappointment and will be missing the Play Offs this season. Minnesota have surpassed the 3 wins from last season as expected, but I didn't have them finishing outside of the basement in the Division, although that does look the case at this moment.
As with many, the New Orleans Saints have severely under-achieved from my pre-season expectations, although it says a lot about the character in the team that they are still in a position to enter the Play Offs despite a 0-4 start. The NFC South is in control of the Atlanta Falcons, a team that I thought could win the Division with a bit of luck, but one I did not see winning double digit games this season, something that has already been surpassed.
Carolina are going to be a disappointment as I had believed they will reach the same record as last season, but that looks to be a step too far as they need to win 3 of their last 5 games to do so. I had tipped Tampa Bay to reach 6 or 7 wins, but they have responded to Greg Schiano and they are set to finish at least 0.500 for the season with 2 more wins avoiding a losing record.
The NFC West was probably the easiest Division to pick in the NFL this season and I don't think too many people will be surprised by the way it is shaping up. I had picked San Francisco to reach double-digit wins again this season and take the title, which they are well on course to do so, while I also projected Seattle to come behind them.
However, the Seahawks have managed the surprise wins that they needed to avoid a 7-9 record that I had picked for them, although I still think they come up short for the Play Offs.
St Louis have also doubled last seasons wins as expected, and Arizona are set for another losing record (although at 4-0, I thought the Cardinals could surpass expectations massively).
My Top Ten
1) Houston Texans (10-1): There really isn't a stand out team in the NFL this season that I think is 'unbeatable', but the Texans look the best balanced.
2) Baltimore Ravens (9-2): Injuries are still an issue, and the Ravens are not half as good on the road as they are at home, but I still think they are a legitimate SuperBowl contender.
3) New England Patriots (8-3): The arrival of Aqib Talib improves the Defense, and the Patriots have the experience of winning the big games.
4) Atlanta Falcons (10-1): I can't be the only person that doesn't have faith in this team when it comes to the Play Offs.
5) San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1): This team would be my pick to represent the NFC right now.
6) New York Giants (7-4): Are they back? If they play like they did on Sunday night against Green Bay, I think the Giants will be the biggest threat to San Francisco.
7) Green Bay Packers (7-4): I believe Sunday night was an aberration and the Packers will get better as injuries clear up going forward. Still the team to beat in the NFC North.
8) Denver Broncos (8-3): Have struggled against the best teams they have played in Houston, Atlanta and New England and their next big test will be how they have handle the Baltimore Ravens.
9) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5): Lost their last 2 games down to mental errors and Special Teams play. Will be falling out of this list if Ben Roethlisberger isn't back sooner rather than later.
10) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5): Were very close to knocking off the Atlanta Falcons last time out and are a real threat to make the Play Offs if they can pick up confidence and momentum again.
My Bottom Five
32) Kansas City Chiefs (1-9): Any team that chooses to start Brady Quinn isn't very good... They'll get the Number 1 Draft Pick next April unless they do something foolish in their last 5 games.
31) Philadelphia Eagles (3-8): 7 consecutive losses and they know there are a lot of changes to be made this off-season.
30) Oakland Raiders (3-8): Have plain given up!
29) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9): Least these guys have shown more heart and determination than the two teams immediately below them.
28) Cleveland Browns (3-8): Had 8 turnovers last week and still almost lost the game while Colt McCoy may be back in the Quarter Back starting role this week.
NFL Week 13 Picks
I will update my review from last weeks picks either later or tomorrow, but the Thursday night game pick has to be put up first.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: I like the road team to at least cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, this spread does seem an over-reaction to the New Orleans loss last week when it was only a couple of pick sixes that cost the Saints the game.
Second, the Saints have won 7 of their last 8 games against Atlanta in the Divisional series and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at the Georgia Dome.
Third, it goes back to when I picked the Saints to beat the Falcons three weeks ago, I just prefer their Offense of the two teams and think they are more likely to score touchdowns. That makes being given more than a field goal head start look very appealing.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: I like the Cowboys, despite being a crappy team to back when considered the home favourite, for the following reasons:
First, despite the injuries the Philadelphia Eagles are playing with, Dallas will not take this game lightly in the Division as they have lost their last 2 home games against the Eagles and can't afford another Divisional loss this season if they want to catch the New York Giants.
Second, I just think the Eagles are too banged up to get things done against this Defense, particularly if LeSean McCoy is out to join Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson on the sidelines.
Third, the Cowboys are 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series.
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Pick: I will be taking the road underdog to win this game on Monday Night Football and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, barring one terrible overthrow, Eli Manning looked fresh in the dismantling of the Green Bay Packers last week and I think he will torch a Washington Defense that has been obliterated by injuries.
Second, I feel the New York pass rush is going to cause some issues, while I believe they will eventually win the turnover battle as they did in the first game between the teams this season.
Third, it should be a high-scoring game tonight as I feel both Offenses will be able to move the ball with some success, but I just think Manning makes more plays with his receivers than RG3 can when it is all said and done.
Fourth, I know the Redskins swept the Giants last season and the game earlier was very close, but New York had previously won 5 in a row at FedEx Field and they are 4-2 against the spread in their last 6 visits here.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: I like the Cowboys, despite being a crappy team to back when considered the home favourite, for the following reasons:
First, despite the injuries the Philadelphia Eagles are playing with, Dallas will not take this game lightly in the Division as they have lost their last 2 home games against the Eagles and can't afford another Divisional loss this season if they want to catch the New York Giants.
Second, I just think the Eagles are too banged up to get things done against this Defense, particularly if LeSean McCoy is out to join Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson on the sidelines.
Third, the Cowboys are 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series.
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Pick: I will be taking the road underdog to win this game on Monday Night Football and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, barring one terrible overthrow, Eli Manning looked fresh in the dismantling of the Green Bay Packers last week and I think he will torch a Washington Defense that has been obliterated by injuries.
Second, I feel the New York pass rush is going to cause some issues, while I believe they will eventually win the turnover battle as they did in the first game between the teams this season.
Third, it should be a high-scoring game tonight as I feel both Offenses will be able to move the ball with some success, but I just think Manning makes more plays with his receivers than RG3 can when it is all said and done.
Fourth, I know the Redskins swept the Giants last season and the game earlier was very close, but New York had previously won 5 in a row at FedEx Field and they are 4-2 against the spread in their last 6 visits here.
MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 10 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 12: 3-6, - 7.15 Units
Week 11: 8-1, + 12.99 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.74 Units
Week 9: 3-3, + 1.64 Units
Week 8: 4-3, + 2.58 Units
Week 7: 3-3-2, + 0.58 Units
Week 6: 3-5, - 5.26 Units
Week 5: 2-5, - 6.24 Units
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 31-32-4, + 0.09 Units
Dallas Cowboys - 10 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 12: 3-6, - 7.15 Units
Week 11: 8-1, + 12.99 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.74 Units
Week 9: 3-3, + 1.64 Units
Week 8: 4-3, + 2.58 Units
Week 7: 3-3-2, + 0.58 Units
Week 6: 3-5, - 5.26 Units
Week 5: 2-5, - 6.24 Units
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 31-32-4, + 0.09 Units
Saturday, 24 November 2012
Weekend Football Picks (November 24-25)
These are my picks for the weekend games in the Premier League and the reasons I have made them:
Manchester United v Queens Park Rangers Pick: It has been over 10 years since Manchester United have lost three games in a row and I think we are going to see a reaction from the loss at Norwich City last weekend.
Mark Hughes is gone as manager of Queens Park Rangers and it will be interesting to see what kind of reaction the players have.
However, as well as wanting to recover from the loss last week, I have no doubt that Sir Alex Ferguson will be reminding his team of the lack of effort QPR gave at the end of their match with Manchester City that ultimately cost United the title when it was clear that Rangers were not going to be relegated.
Fergie will not want his side to let up here and I think United can score a few goals in this one and cover the 2 goal handicap with an exact 2 goal win returning the stake.
Aston Villa v Arsenal Pick: I don't know if I can trust Arsenal fully after a couple of wins, but Aston Villa look a side that is struggling with the inexperience in the squad and they look ripe for the taking after a couple of big games against Manchester United and Manchester City in the last couple of weeks.
The side host Reading on Tuesday night and there is every chance that Villa are targeting that game as the one where they can pick up three points so I think Arsenal will be a little too good for them when all is said and done in this game.
Arsenal have won 1-2 on their last two visits to Villa Park and a similar scoreline is definitely in the offing in my opinion so I'll have a small interest that they pick up the three points in a game that has either 3 or 4 goals in total.
Swansea v Liverpool Pick: I don't really have a lot of statistics to back this pick up, but I do like over 2.5 goals between these sides as both have been scoring and conceding goals in equal measure at the moment.
Swansea will know what to expect from Brendan Rodgers and Rodgers will also be able to give his new team some insight into what the Swans will be doing.
Both sides will consider this a winnable game and I just think someone will win after both sides have at least scored one each so taking the over looks the call to me.
Southampton v Newcastle United Pick: Newcastle United have been a disappointment in recent games and I think they have struggled without the likes of Yohan Cabaye and that can only be more of an issue now Hatem Ben Arfa has been ruled out.
Southampton should be full of confidence thanks to their win at Queens Park Rangers last weekend, but they are always liable to concede at least one goal through a mistake and that does put the pressure on them to turn draws into wins.
However, I do like Southampton to win this game after their performance last week and I do think Newcastle have had some tough losses of late and confidence can't be high for this long trip down south.
Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: Why are Manchester City the underdog in this game? I know a new manager can bring a change of fortunes so Chelsea will be hoping for that in this one, but the fans are not happy with recent events at the club and that could cause a tense performance from the home side.
To make matters tougher for them, Chelsea have been conceding plenty of goals at the moment and have conceded at least 2 goals to the likes of Manchester United (twice) and Shakhtar Donetsk here at Stamford Bridge.
Confidence also has to be a little shot after a comprehensive loss to Juventus has left Chelsea's Champions League dreams in tatters, and I just think City can take advantage here.
It won't be easy for City who have a bad record at Stamford Bridge in recent seasons, but I just think they have enough firepower to prove they are better than being the underdog in this one and will back them for a small interest to win the game.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (4 Units)
Arsenal Win and either 3 or 4 Goals Scored @ 3.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Swansea-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Southampton Win and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester City @ 2.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
November Update: 8-16, - 3.25 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.2% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Friday, 23 November 2012
College Football Week 13 Picks 2012
It has been a tough season, as I say every week, but the last couple of weeks has at least seen a small profit develop, although again teams have left points on the board and cost me.
This is the final week of the regular season for many of the College teams up and down the nation, but these are the picks I'll go with before the start of the Championship Games next weekend.
Happy Thanksgiving to all those celebrating.
Northern Illinois Huskies @ Eastern Michigan Eagles Pick: It is a big spread, but I like the Northern Illinois Huskies to cover for the following reasons:
First, the Huskies have won their last 3 at Eastern Michigan while covering the spread and have recorded some huge wins including a 68 point win last time they played here.
Second, the Huskies have a lot of momentum and will want to complete the sweep of the MAC in Conference play ahead of the Championship Game next weekend.
Third, the Eagles are just 5-9 against the spread as the home underdog since Ron English took over as Head Coach.
Marshall Thundering Herd @ East Carolina Pirates Pick: I'll back the home favourite to win the game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, East Carolina have dominated Marshall at home, winning 6 in a row by an average of 20 points per game.
Second, the Pirates are also a decent home favourite going 5-3 against the spread, compared with Marshall who are 5-7 as the road underdog.
Buffalo Bulls @ Bowling Green Falcons Pick: I'll back the Bowling Green Falcons for the following reasons to cover the spread:
First, I think the Bowling Green Defense has the definite edge in this contest and they should be able to slow down the Bulls enough to win this game and cover the spread.
Second, the Falcons did lose any hopes of winning the MAC East with a home loss last week, but they will still want to get some momentum ahead of their Bowl game that they should be involved with.
Third, Bowling Green have been very strong as the favourite this season and should be able to overcome Buffalo as long as their minds haven't wandered after the loss last week.
LSU Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: I will back the LSU Tigers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Arkansas have never recovered from the Bobby Petrino scandal before the season began and they have played like a team that is looking forward to the end of the season from day one. That's not good against a LSU team that will be focused on reaching double-digit wins again.
Second, the Tigers should have enough turnovers to pull away from the Razorbacks and I think their Special Teams could also have a big impact in the game.
Third, LSU are usually a solid road favourite, going 6-2 against the spread in that spot over the last 3 seasons.
Indiana Hoosiers @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: I'll back the Purdue Boilermakers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think this will be a high-scoring game, but I'll be looking for Purdue to win the turnover battle and secure the win by a touchdown at least.
Second, Purdue have been pretty dominant in the recent series and won't be under different pressure having beat Indiana to become Bowl eligible last season.
Third, the Boilermakers are also in revenge mode having lost here the last time they played one another, and had previously beaten Indiana comfortably in 4 straight home games.
Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: I said a few weeks ago that Derek Dooley wouldn't be long for the Tennessee Head Coach role and that was confirmed last week. I still like the Tennessee Volunteers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Tennessee have been a big disappointment this season but I do think they are the better team here and should be able to do enough at home to win by pulling away late.
Second, Tennessee are also in a revenge spot having lost in Lexington last season and they had covered in 4 straight games in this series before that.
Third, Kentucky are an awful road underdog, going 2-10 against the spread under Joker Phillips when in that spot.
Florida Gators @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: I'll back the Florida State Seminoles to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Florida State have blown out the Florida Gators two seasons in a row and I think they will have more focus here as the Gators think about missing their chance of winning the SEC East.
Second, the Seminoles are better on both sides of the ball and should make enough big plays to cover the spread in a winning performance.
Third, Florida are only 1-4 against the spread as the road underdog over the last three seasons.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: I'll take the points in this one with the Wisconsin Badgers for the following reasons:
First, Wisconsin will want to pick up some momentum ahead of the Big Ten Championship Game next week and so they should be fully focused against a rival.
Second, the Badgers have fallen short against the best teams in the Big Ten, but I think they match up well against the Nittany Lions and may just be able to win this outright.
South Carolina Gamecocks @ Clemson Tigers Pick: I'll take the Clemson Tigers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the match up seems to favour the Tigers more than South Carolina and I think Tajh Boyd makes the big plays that lead to the victory.
Second, Clemson have been playing the better football of the two teams and will be focused on the game with the ACC Championship Game not in their future this season.
Third, the Tigers have also been exceptional at home in the last two seasons and I think that will also make the difference in this game.
MY PICKS: Northern Illinois Huskies - 20.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
East Carolina Pirates - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Bowling Green Falcons - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 12 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Purdue Boilermakers - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 12.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers + 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
This is the final week of the regular season for many of the College teams up and down the nation, but these are the picks I'll go with before the start of the Championship Games next weekend.
Happy Thanksgiving to all those celebrating.
Northern Illinois Huskies @ Eastern Michigan Eagles Pick: It is a big spread, but I like the Northern Illinois Huskies to cover for the following reasons:
First, the Huskies have won their last 3 at Eastern Michigan while covering the spread and have recorded some huge wins including a 68 point win last time they played here.
Second, the Huskies have a lot of momentum and will want to complete the sweep of the MAC in Conference play ahead of the Championship Game next weekend.
Third, the Eagles are just 5-9 against the spread as the home underdog since Ron English took over as Head Coach.
Marshall Thundering Herd @ East Carolina Pirates Pick: I'll back the home favourite to win the game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, East Carolina have dominated Marshall at home, winning 6 in a row by an average of 20 points per game.
Second, the Pirates are also a decent home favourite going 5-3 against the spread, compared with Marshall who are 5-7 as the road underdog.
Buffalo Bulls @ Bowling Green Falcons Pick: I'll back the Bowling Green Falcons for the following reasons to cover the spread:
First, I think the Bowling Green Defense has the definite edge in this contest and they should be able to slow down the Bulls enough to win this game and cover the spread.
Second, the Falcons did lose any hopes of winning the MAC East with a home loss last week, but they will still want to get some momentum ahead of their Bowl game that they should be involved with.
Third, Bowling Green have been very strong as the favourite this season and should be able to overcome Buffalo as long as their minds haven't wandered after the loss last week.
LSU Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: I will back the LSU Tigers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Arkansas have never recovered from the Bobby Petrino scandal before the season began and they have played like a team that is looking forward to the end of the season from day one. That's not good against a LSU team that will be focused on reaching double-digit wins again.
Second, the Tigers should have enough turnovers to pull away from the Razorbacks and I think their Special Teams could also have a big impact in the game.
Third, LSU are usually a solid road favourite, going 6-2 against the spread in that spot over the last 3 seasons.
Indiana Hoosiers @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: I'll back the Purdue Boilermakers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think this will be a high-scoring game, but I'll be looking for Purdue to win the turnover battle and secure the win by a touchdown at least.
Second, Purdue have been pretty dominant in the recent series and won't be under different pressure having beat Indiana to become Bowl eligible last season.
Third, the Boilermakers are also in revenge mode having lost here the last time they played one another, and had previously beaten Indiana comfortably in 4 straight home games.
Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: I said a few weeks ago that Derek Dooley wouldn't be long for the Tennessee Head Coach role and that was confirmed last week. I still like the Tennessee Volunteers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Tennessee have been a big disappointment this season but I do think they are the better team here and should be able to do enough at home to win by pulling away late.
Second, Tennessee are also in a revenge spot having lost in Lexington last season and they had covered in 4 straight games in this series before that.
Third, Kentucky are an awful road underdog, going 2-10 against the spread under Joker Phillips when in that spot.
Florida Gators @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: I'll back the Florida State Seminoles to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Florida State have blown out the Florida Gators two seasons in a row and I think they will have more focus here as the Gators think about missing their chance of winning the SEC East.
Second, the Seminoles are better on both sides of the ball and should make enough big plays to cover the spread in a winning performance.
Third, Florida are only 1-4 against the spread as the road underdog over the last three seasons.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: I'll take the points in this one with the Wisconsin Badgers for the following reasons:
First, Wisconsin will want to pick up some momentum ahead of the Big Ten Championship Game next week and so they should be fully focused against a rival.
Second, the Badgers have fallen short against the best teams in the Big Ten, but I think they match up well against the Nittany Lions and may just be able to win this outright.
South Carolina Gamecocks @ Clemson Tigers Pick: I'll take the Clemson Tigers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the match up seems to favour the Tigers more than South Carolina and I think Tajh Boyd makes the big plays that lead to the victory.
Second, Clemson have been playing the better football of the two teams and will be focused on the game with the ACC Championship Game not in their future this season.
Third, the Tigers have also been exceptional at home in the last two seasons and I think that will also make the difference in this game.
MY PICKS: Northern Illinois Huskies - 20.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
East Carolina Pirates - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Bowling Green Falcons - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 12 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Purdue Boilermakers - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 12.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers + 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
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