NFL Week 14 Picks 2025 (Thursday 4th December-Monday 8th December)

This is the last NFL Week of the season where there are teams on Byes and that means the focus has ramped up considerably when it comes to the Playoff race.

Some Divisions are wide open, but the Wild Card race is already beginning to see some separation after Thanksgiving Weekend and the pressure is on teams with some big games ahead.

The opening game of the Week 14 schedule is one of those that feels like an early Playoff game when the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions face off- the winner will certainly feel they can push into the post-season, but the loser would have not only lost ground on those above them, but would have another tie-breaker to overcome.

With the design of the NFL schedule, there are always big games left over in the final weeks of the season as Divisional battles lead the way,

It has been a poor season for the NFL Picks, the first in a while, although there is still plenty of time to turn things around.

However, losing another week would be a blow after a tough Sunday in Week 13 and the selections below need to return a solid return to just give the Picks some momentum if nothing else.

Opening up with a selection from Thursday Night Football, further Picks will be added to this thread in the days ahead.

Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions Pick: This is not going to be like a traditional short week for teams preparing to play on Thursday Night Football and that is because both the Detroit Lions (7-5) and Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) played last week on Thanksgiving Day.

Results could not have been any different for the two teams- the Lions lost another Divisional game to rivals Green Bay and that makes it very difficult to see how Detroit can win the NFC North now. However, the defeat was actually one that has a big impact on their hopes of even earning a Wild Card spot and if the Playoffs were to start today, the Lions would not be involved.

This makes this Week 14 game hugely important, but even more so when considering the Dallas Cowboys did earn an important win on Thanksgiving Day, which keeps them alive in the NFC East and in the Wild Card race. The Cowboys have put pressure on themselves to try and win out, and that may still be the only way into the post-season, but three wins in a row have given them real momentum and Dallas might be very tough to stop.

Offensively you can only admire how they are playing right now from Quarter Back to Wide Receivers to Running Back and the Offensive Line.

After seeing how Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers moved the ball with consistency in Week 13, Dallas are going to be very confident that Dak Prescott is going to be able to do the same with two Number 1 level Receivers and a balanced approach to the attack.

The Lions Defensive Line have continued to be pretty good when it comes to playing the run, but injuries in the Secondary are taking a toll.

With limited pass rush pressure being generated, Dak Prescott is going to have all day to find the likes of Jason Ferguson, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens down the field and this looks a game in which the Cowboys can match the efforts of the last two opponents faced by the Lions who have both scored at least 27 points.

It all adds up to the likelihood of Jared Goff and the Lions Offense to have to step up and keep up on the scoreboard- they did that as well as they could in the defeat to the Green Bay Packers, but injuries are beginning to hurt on this side of the ball and the Quarter Back could be without his top Receiver.

Amon-Ra St. Brown did not play very long in the Thanksgiving Day game and he is seen as a late decision to take part in Week 14, although the lean has to be that he missed out. The Lions are already without Sam LaPorta and Jared Goff may not have the consistent weapons needed in the passing game.

Earlier in the season he could at least have relied on David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to rip off some big gains on the ground, but it is impossible to ignore the improvements made by the Dallas Defensive Line after late trades made. The Lions Offensive Line is a little banged up too, which has limited the time being given to Jared Goff when he has stepped back to throw the ball down the field and this Cowboys team looks to be peaking at a very good time, especially with the top of the NFL looking as wide open as it has this season.

Head Coach Dan Campbell has usually gotten his team to bounce back from losses very well and that has to be respected here.

The Lions might be hurt, but they will play hard, although you do have to wonder how they are going to find consistent stops against this Dallas Offense.

Having a hook over the key number 3 would be most appealing, but taking the points with the Dallas Cowboys looks the right play here, especially if Dak Prescott continues to play at his current level.

MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 34-40, - 9.54 Units (74 Units Staked, - 12.89% Yield)

College Football Week 14 Picks 2021 (December 3-4)

It is Championship Week in the College Football 2021 season and there are going to be a number of teams looking to impress one more time in order to crack the top four places in the College Football PlayOff.

Games in this Week can be pivotal towards that and I think there are going to be some tense moments.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ UTSA Roadrunners Pick: The regular season is over, but Week 14 of the College Football season is reserved for Championship Games around the nation.

The first one scheduled to be played is the Conference-USA Championship Game and make no mistake how important it is to both of these schools. They may not be concerning themselves from being selected for the College Football PlayOff, but the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4) and the UTSA Roadrunners (11-1) will consider this a highly successful season if they can place a Championship trophy in their school cabinet.

It has been a dominant season for the UTSA Roadrunners who won their first eleven games before losing in Week 13, although they had already secured their spot in the Championship Game and were perhaps not as focused as they should have been. The Roadrunners would have loved to have completed an unbeaten season, but it is not as if they have suddenly lost out on being selected for the College Football PlayOff and so the attention turning to this Championship Game is just a human reaction.

Things have been more difficult for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers who dropped their opening Conference game before winning seven games in a row to close out the season and secure top spot in the Conference-USA East Division. They were in a win or bust position in Week 13 when facing the Marshall Thundering Herd, but the Hilltoppers blew them out on the road and they will be looking for revenge in the Championship Game and with the momentum behind them.

Western Kentucky were beaten in their opening Conference game by the UTSA Roadrunners and the Hilltoppers were over a Field Goal favourite that day, although they did manage to produce over 100 yards more than their opponent. Being on the road will be more difficult, but the Hilltoppers certainly have momentum behind them and the improving performances in each passing week will have the road favourites believing they can get the better of the Roadrunners this time around.

The season records may have some wondering why the Roadrunners are the underdog, but they did not face a schedule as tough as the one that the Hilltoppers have had to deal with. Seven wins in a row is really difficult to ignore and the yardage battles in recent games suggest the UTSA Roadrunners have a record that is better than it perhaps should be.

I do think both the Roadrunners and Hilltoppers will have success throwing the ball- Bailey Zappe arrived at Western Kentucky with the new Offensive Co-Ordinator and he has shown a real ability to play at this level despite moving up from the FCS. He needs another 32 yards to have thrown for 5000 on the season, but most impressive is the fact that Zappe has 52 Touchdown passes with just 9 Interceptions and I do think he can pick up from where he left off against UTSA when the Quarter Back produced 5 Touchdown passes with a single Interception while putting up 523 passing yards on the day.

Frank Harris had 349 passing yards for the UTSA Roadrunners that day and managed 6 Touchdown passes with a single Interception in the win over the Hilltoppers. His numbers have not been as impressive as Bailey Zappe's over the course of the season, but Harris is a very capable dual-threat Quarter Back.

Both teams have had issues in the Secondary which can be exploited by the two Quarter Backs taking to the field, but the Western Kentucky Offensive Line have just been operating at a stronger level than the UTSA Offensive Line. That has not only shown up in pass protection, but also in establishing the run, while the Hilltoppers look capable of winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

The road team have generated a heavy pass rush in recent weeks and I think the momentum behind them helps them earn revenge and win this Championship Game. I would be surprised if both teams do not have successes Offensively, but winning at the line of scrimmage could be where one or two big plays are made to separate the teams.

With that in mind, I do give the edge to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers who have been playing hard for weeks and seen improvements Defensively. They could not make many stops when facing the UTSA Roadrunners back in October, but the Hilltoppers earned many more yards than the Roadrunners and I expect that to be the case here too.

If you like Touchdowns and lots of them, this could be the game for you this weekend.

I am leaning towards the Hilltoppers who have been getting better in each passing week and who have a 5-2-1 record against the spread in their last eight as the road favourite.

UTSA have to be respected with some of the trends they have put together when looking to bounce back from a loss and when set as the underdog and I do think it will come down to which of these teams have the ball last. However, I also think the defeat in Week 13 will have hurt the Roadrunners and it might see them just fail to have the confidence to win this game at a key moment.

Oregon Ducks vs Utah Utes Pick: Both of these teams are Ranked inside the top seventeen, but for the fifth season in a row it is almost certain that the Pac-12 will not be sending a team to the College Football PlayOff. The Oregon Ducks (10-2) and the Utah Utes (9-3) can't concern themselves with that as they look to win a Championship, but there will be some frustration in both camps that they have not been able to at least give themselves a realistic shot of being selected for the PlayOff.

The Utes have been out of contention for a while, but the Ducks will feel particularly disappointed considering they hold a win over the Ohio State Buckeyes in 2021 and that came on the road no less. However, a loss to a Stanford Cardinal team that finished 3-9 ended their unbeaten record and it was the defeat to the Utah Utes in Week 12 which ended the Ducks' chances of making the final four.

They will be looking for revenge after beating rivals Oregon State in Week 13 to win the Pac-12 North. The Ducks will feel they can show a lot more than they did in the blowout to the Utes, but Utah won five games in a row to win the Pac-12 South as they look for a first Championship to finally underline the strong work that Head Coach Kyle Whittingham has done in Salt Lake City.

It was the dominance at the line of scrimmage that helped the Utah Utes crush Oregon at home a couple of weeks ago, although that tape is likely going to help the Ducks make some adjustments to be a lot more competitive. Stopping the Utah Utes running the ball is a major challenge, but it is the key for Oregon if they are going to win this game, while they have to find a way to be better at organising their own rushing Offense.

That looks a tall task for the Oregon team on either side of the ball when you consider how strong Utah have looked down the stretch, although the pressure of making history can weigh down on the Utes. The Ducks have experience of winning Pac-12 Championships having done so in each of the last two seasons and that may be important for them as they look for a measure of redemption.

One of those wins came in 2019 as Oregon blew out the Utah Utes as a much bigger underdog than they have been set for the 2021 Championship Game.

However, this time I am expecting the Utah Defensive unit to be able to pin back their ears and get after Anthony Brown at Quarter Back when placing him in third and long spots on the field. Shutting down the run won't be as easy as it was in Week 12, but I expect Utah to have successes up front and that will rattle the entire game plan that Oregon will want to run.

Cameron Rising did not need to do a lot in the win a couple of weeks ago thanks to the strong performance Utah had on the ground, but he has managed games effectively. This season he has 17 Touchdown passes with just 3 Interceptions and the Quarter Back will feel his Offensive Line can help establish the run to keep him in front of the chains.

In recent games, Oregon have not been able to generate much of a pass rush and I expect Rising to have time when he does step back to throw, but being in third and manageable spots should make things more comfortable.

I do really like Utah here, even though I have to respect the difficulty involved in beating the same opponent in quick succession. The Utes will know the Oregon Ducks are going to be better than what they saw in Week 12, but I still like Utah at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that could separate them on the day.

I also have to respect the fact that the Ducks have a decent record against the spread when set as the underdog, while Utah have not played well in neutral site games. Utah have covered in two of the last three between these teams and I think this current squad can make history by helping the Utes overcome the Ducks in the Pac-12 Championship Game and cover the mark set in this one.

Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: Nothing is really going to change the Georgia Bulldogs (12-0) outlook when it comes to earning a spot in the College Football PlayOff, but this is the SEC Championship Game. The Bulldogs did win the Championship in 2017, but that is the sole time in twelve years that a team from the SEC East have ended up as Champions and the Bulldogs want to underline their place as the top team in College Football.

The pressure is really on for their opponents, the Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1), who barely hung on to beat the Auburn Tigers last week. A defeat there would have ended Alabama's hopes of defending the National Championship they won in 2020, but it will be difficult for a two loss Crimson Tide to make the PlayOff unless results go their way in Week 14.

The Crimson Tide have not looked like a vintage version of their teams of recent memory, but they are a team that has high ambitions every season. Failing to reach the PlayOff would be a huge blow, but the layers don't really believe in them as they have been set as a relatively big underdog in the Championship Game.

Inconsistent performances throughout the regular season are the foundation for that position, but the Alabama Crimson Tide are also facing a Georgia Bulldogs team that have looked the clear Number 1 team in the nation for some time. This is the toughest Defensive unit that the Crimson Tide will have faced in 2021 and the struggles against the Tigers in Week 13 will really worry Alabama fans.

Alabama have not really been performing to the level we have come to expect and the real problems have been on the Offensive Line where they have had issues establishing the run and in pass protection. The Crimson Tide are not expected to have a lot of joy running up against the Georgia Defensive Line and it means a difficult day in the office for Bryce Young.

He was Sacked multiple times by the Auburn Tigers in Week 13 as Alabama barely survived, but this week the Georgia pass rush could create even more havoc in the backfield. With an Offensive Line struggling, I expect the Bulldogs to pin their ears back and hit Young often and it is going to protect the Secondary.

Bryce Young has to be credited for largely looking after the ball, but moving the chains on any consistent basis is going to be a huge challenge for him. It may mean Alabama need to lean on their Defensive unit to try and keep them in this SEC Championship Game.

Georgia have impressed massively on the Defensive side of the ball, but it has not been as easy for them on the other side- they have looked better in recent games, but Georgia are now going up against a fairly tough Alabama Defensive unit that will believe they can produce the big plays to keep this one close.

The Bulldogs have been a bullying unit through their Offensive Line and that has meant offering plenty of pass protection and paving the road for some big gains. Doing so against Alabama will be a different test, but the feeling is that Georgia are stronger at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that is where they are going to win this game.

Stetson Bennett is likely to be the starter for the Georgia Bulldogs at Quarter Back and there are one or two holes in this Alabama Secondary that he can exploit. He will want to avoid mistakes that may offer encouragement for the underdog, but the feeling is that Bennett will be in better spots than Bryce Young and that should see him make the plays that bring the Championship back to Georgia for the first time in four years.

The Bulldogs are 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen as the favourite on a neutral site.

Unsurprisingly, Alabama have a solid 4-1 record against the spread in their last five when set as the underdog, but this may be a step too far for this version of the Crimson Tide and I like Georgia to underline their credentials as potential National Champions by possibly knocking out a big rival on their way to a SEC Championship.

MY PICKS: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Utah Utes - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Georgia Bulldogs - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Oklahoma State Cowboys - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Appalachian State Mountaineers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

San Diego State Aztecs - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bearcats - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 11 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Panthers - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (December 3-5)

December is always an extremely busy month in the English Football calendar and the Premier League has an additional round of fixtures this midweek.

For the first time Amazon will be streaming all ten of the fixtures to be played from Tuesday through to Thursday and the short turnaround is not just an issue for the real life managers, but also for those of us who are playing Fantasy Football.

With that short gap between games in mind, this thread is not going to be as long as some others. I have been waiting for as long as possible to make a decision about my free transfer to use this week with the main concern being Tammy Abraham and his availability against Aston Villa. You can see my thought process of how I am going to deal with the Abraham situation in the Fantasy portion of the thread with the disclaimer that I could make a decision right up until the deadline for GW15 which is 6:30pm UK time on Tuesday 3rd December.


Crystal Palace v Bournemouth Pick: This is a big week for fans of English Football as Amazon become the latest broadcaster to offer Premier League Football having secured two packages in December.

They have decided to broadcast every Premier League game in this round with the ten games split over three days and the first one to kick off on the streaming channel will be Crystal Palace versus Bournemouth.

This is an important game for both Roy Hodgson and Eddie Howe as they look to guide their clubs back into the top half of the Premier League table with a victory. The Division is a tight one with only 2 points blanketing 5th placed Tottenham Hotspur down to Crystal Palace in 11th, while Bournemouth are two points further behind than their hosts.

Crystal Palace had a big win at Burnley on Saturday, but defensive injuries can't be ignored when you think of the chances that the hosts missed on the day. Those are likely to be punished by a Bournemouth team who have scored in their last 4 Premier League games including in back to back away games at Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur.

The Eagles have been conceding a fair few goals of late so the clean sheet would have been welcome on Saturday even if it was a touch undeserving. That won't matter to Roy Hodgson, although he will want to see a better effort in protecting their own goal.

On the other hand Crystal Palace will believe they can hurt a Bournemouth team who have lost 3 in a row in the League and conceded at least twice in each defeat. Even a goal-shy Newcastle United managed two goals against Bournemouth recently so I expect Crystal Palace to have their moments in this one even if they have been far from the most clinical of teams in the top flight.

Both teams have been creating enough to believe they can do the same against what have been vulnerable defences. Games between Crystal Palace and Bournemouth have been high-scoring of late with the last 4 overall all ending with at least three goals shared out and that same number hit in 7 of the last 8 at Selhurst Park with the sole exception being a 1-1 draw.

That is arguably the one scoreline that prevents this game going in the same direction as the recent trend between these clubs, but backing at least three goals to be shared out at odds against is the play.


Burnley v Manchester City Pick: The second of the games to kick off on Tuesday, 45 minutes after the first, comes from Turf Moor as Manchester City try and give CPR to what is a flagging Premier League title challenge.

A poor run of form has seen Manchester City win 1 of their last 5 games in all competitions and that has allowed Liverpool to keep pulling away with 11 points between the clubs that finished one and two last season. The defending Champions might be saying all the right things about not giving up and just trying to win matches, but no one can really deny that Manchester City have simply not looked right in recent weeks.

Injuries are not helping, but Manchester City should be able to cope better than they have and the lack of intensity for large portions of the 2-2 draw at Newcastle United will have been a big concern. Losing Sergio Aguero is a big blow anyway, but he has scored three of the four goals Manchester City have managed at Turf Moor under Pep Guardiola and that absence could be keenly felt on Tuesday.

Last season Burnley didn't really lay a glove on Manchester City who won 0-1 here, but this season teams are taking more chances against what is clearly a vulnerable defence. Aymeric Laporte has been a big miss and Vincent Kompany's experience could also have been invaluable at this time, but without them Manchester City look far from confident at the back.

Burnley have been creating plenty of chances in their home games all season and in Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood they have players who can punish Manchester City in this one. Even on Saturday it was a lack of composure in the final third which hurt Burnley in their 0-2 defeat to Crystal Palace, but I think they are going to cause problems through set pieces in this one and I expect the home team to take more chances.

I did consider backing Burnley with the start being given to them on the Asian Handicap, but my main feeling is that they are going to need to score if they are going to cover that mark for a full payout. They have certainly created enough to believe they can find the net, while it is very difficult to see any team containing Manchester City even when not at their very best.

Both teams to score is an odds against shot in this Premier League game and I think that is a big price considering all the factors in play. I do think Burnley play with more ambition than they had in this corresponding fixture last season when battling to avoid the drop and that can see both teams hit the net in this game.


Chelsea v Aston Villa Pick: There is little doubt that an early Chelsea goal on Saturday would have changed the entire complexion of the eventual 0-1 defeat to West Ham United and The Blues certainly had enough chances to win the game. They were missing Tammy Abraham who has cemented his role as the starting Number 9 for Chelsea, although Frank Lampard has to shoulder some of the blame by picking a rusty Olivier Giroud over Michy Batshuayi to the surprise of almost everybody.

The former England midfielder would have had his reasons, but the changes made to the forward line were not helpful to Chelsea who need a reaction on Wednesday. Pedro was another who surprisingly was given a start considering he has not been involved in recent weeks and ultimately Chelsea paid for being wasteful in front of goal while David Martin also made a couple of decent saves for West Ham United.

It sounds like Abraham will be available for this fixture on Wednesday and that could give Chelsea a huge boost. I would expect Willian to also start and the more familiar feel to the front line should be crucial for the home team. While Chelsea have dropped a lot of points here, they had won 3 Premier League games in a row at Stamford Bridge prior to Saturday and no one can deny the amount of chances that Chelsea have been creating.

I am expecting more of the same on Wednesday when they host an Aston Villa team off a morale boosting 2-2 draw at Old Trafford. They came from behind to secure the result against Manchester United, but Aston Villa continue to look vulnerable at the back and I am very much expecting to see that exploited by Chelsea in this fixture.

Dean Smith does demand an attractive brand of football from his Aston Villa team and they will get forward and look to hurt Chelsea in this one. I think they have a chance of creating one or two good opportunities which makes it hard to get a read on the game, but Chelsea's 3 clean sheets in a row at home in the Premier League prior to the result on Saturday has me leaning to The Blues winning and winning by a margin to cover the Asian Handicap.

Aston Villa have suffered 3 narrow losses (one goal margin) and 2 by a wider number in the Premier League this season. However one of those games saw Aston Villa score in the very last minute to narrow the defeat at Wolves to 2-1, and the underlying stats suggest Aston Villa are fortunate they have not been on the wrong side of more heavier losses.

We have seen Chelsea create enough at home to believe they can bounce back here although they need to show a little more composure in the final third. They should have got a few more at home than they have so far this season and I think Chelsea might also be playing an opponent that put in a lot on Sunday and are potentially a touch fatigued while also thinking about the big Midlands derby with Leicester City which is next on deck.

Chelsea might have only won 3 home League games so far this season, but 2 of those came by at least two goal margins and I will back the hosts to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Leicester City v Watford Pick: The late, late goal to beat Everton was greeted with rapturous celebrations from the Leicester City players and fans, but they will need to settle down and just refocus ahead of this next Premier League game.

As the closest challengers to Liverpool in the Premier League table, Leicester City and Brendan Rodgers know they have to keep winning and hope that puts some pressure on the League leaders. They kick off before Liverpool on Wednesday, but Rodgers will be urging his players to focus on this game and not worry about events taking place at Anfield.

He will also be reminding his players of his own commitment to the cause with rumours suggesting Rodgers would perhaps like a crack at the vacant Arsenal job. Brendan Rodgers himself denied he is focused on anything but Leicester City, but you do have to wonder if those distractions perhaps play a part in this fixture.

In reality it is an ideal game for Leicester City to rally together as they face manager-less Watford (who likely have made an appointment by the time this game kicks off). A lack of confidence is clear in some of the performances Watford have produced and losing to relegation rivals Southampton on Saturday is a major blow for the club who have made the right decisions to avoid relegation in recent years.

Watford didn't play badly at Southampton, but defensively there are some major question marks while they don't score a lot of goals either. They have lost 4 of their last 6 away games in all competitions and also their last 4 at the King Power Stadium and I am finding it difficult to see anything but another Leicester City win.

Where Watford lack goals, but concede too many, Leicester City have been largely pretty good from a defensive point of view. They have also managed to score at least two goals in 6 straight games at the King Power Stadium and throughout their 7 game winning run and I do think there will be too much firepower in the final third for the visitors to cope with.

Backing Leicester City to win this one and cover the Asian Handicap is the play for me.


Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: It has been little under a year since Jose Mourinho was sacked as manager of Manchester United and replaced by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, but the former 'Special One' is back in M16 with a new team on Wednesday.

Jose Mourinho has taken over from Mauricio Pochettino as manager of Tottenham Hotspur and his new team have won 3 in a row under his guidance while scoring plenty of goals. The goals being conceded will be a concern, but in a twist of fate Mourinho could put another nail in the coffin of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's managerial career at Manchester United with a win on Wednesday.

Even more ironically it could lead to Pochettino returning to the Premier League having long been linked with the top job at Manchester United and the rumours refuse to go away while Solskjaer struggles to find consistent performances and results. The 2-2 draw with Aston Villa was the first time this season a small section booed the players off at Old Trafford, while more and more are beginning to question the logic of appointing a manager without any real credentials to be in charge of the 'biggest club in the world'.

All those rumours can be quashed if Manchester United can win this fixture, but the pressure will be ramped up massively if they are beaten ahead of the Manchester derby at the Etihad Stadium. The players have to find a way to cope with the situation which is also magnified by the fact that Mourinho is returning with a new team.

Tottenham Hotspur have looked revitalised under the new manager although I am not sure how much work they are being able to get through on the training ground. The benefit for Spurs in this one is that Mourinho should know Manchester United backwards and that means he will also be best equipped to set his team up to nullify what United bring to the table.

You would have to think Tottenham Hotspur can expose what has become a vulnerable Manchester United defence, while they have the midfield to control the pace of the game. Jose Mourinho has to be concerned by the defensive performances though so I am not sure he will want to sit on a narrow lead, even if the manager will be desperate to avoid a defeat at Old Trafford.

On the other side Manchester United have to show more than being a sheer counter attacking team as they try and pressure a team who have conceded two goals in all of their games under their new manager. In recent games Manchester United have looked better in creating chances, although once again I have to wonder if Mourinho is not the best equipped to prevent the home team doing what they want.

Recent history between these teams have seen plenty of tight games as Tottenham Hotspur have improved and perhaps even surpassed Manchester United on the field. This has felt like potentially being another, but I don't think either team is defending well enough to believe they are going to keep the other from scoring.

A 1-1 draw was the outcome of Arsenal and Liverpool visiting Old Trafford this season and that looks a real player here. However I think both teams have shown enough going forward and vulnerability defensively to believe this could be the fourth game in a row at Old Trafford that features at least three goals shared out.

An early goal will open things up and if that comes the layers might be right in making the chances of seeing at least three goals an odds on shot.


Southampton v Norwich City Pick: The main feeling I had about this game was the obvious conclusion of there being at least three goals shared out, but the layers might finally be getting on top of that market as far as Southampton games are concerned. Against Watford that market was almost priced up at odds against, but it is as low as 1.57 for this game.

Part of the reason has to be the way Norwich City have approached games all season with a strong looking attacking threat, but with a miserable defensive record. It was all highlighted in the 2-2 draw with Arsenal on Sunday, but I can't back at least four goals here knowing the importance of the fixture to both teams.

I doubt the managers will want to open things up if they are ahead and that makes it a more difficult game to read. While I do think a 2-1 scoreline either way is possible, again it is priced up way too low and especially so when you consider that none of the last 7 Norwich City away games have ended with three or more goals shared out.

Southampton do create a lot of chances, but outside of Danny Ings there has not been a consistent threat. Even against Watford on Saturday they were fortunate to come away with a win despite Shane Long doing his best to miss presentable chances and so there look to be better options out there.

I can't recommend Southampton at odds on to win any game of football to be perfectly frank- they have only won back to back home games once since January 2017 and that makes them hard to really believe in. However I will admit that for any prediction leagues you may be involved in, I would be backing the home team to come away with the points and that is largely down to Norwich City's poor defensive record away from home.

Even then The Canaries have had clean sheets in 2 of their last 3 away games at Bournemouth and Everton and won at Goodison Park so I am moving on beyond this fixture with better options out there during the week.


Wolves v West Ham United Pick: Things got very emotional for David Martin at the end of West Ham United's win over Chelsea on Saturday and his efforts in goal might just have saved Manuel Pellegrini's job at the London Stadium.

Backing it up won't be easy as West Ham United prepare to travel to Molineux where Wolves have been very difficult to beat all season. There are still some major questions for West Ham United to answer from a defensive point of view and I think Wolves are definitely going to be posing some real problems for them.

A lack of clean sheets has been holding Wolves back from seriously challenging the top four places, but they are playing well at the moment and 1 loss from their last 15 in all competitions is hard to ignore. Wolves have won 3 of their last 5 here too and they hammered West Ham United here last season, pardon the pun.

This is a team who do create chances, but I do think Wolves are also missing a complimentary goalscorer to Raul Jimenez which would really help them as a team. The Mexican has been in great form all season though and is an integral part of the Wolves set up and I do think Wolves can have successes against a West Ham United team who had conceded three goals in 3 straight League games prior to the win over Chelsea.

Some will point out the mistakes made in goal by Roberto Jimenez, but this is a team who have allowed teams to create plenty of chances. On another day Chelsea would have been out of sight in the first twenty minutes on Saturday and I think Wolves are going to have too much for their visitors in this one.

West Ham United have taken some heavy losses in recent away games and I don't think the one win over Chelsea should cloud that fact. It was a very important win, but the effort produced will be difficult to replicate against another tough Premier League side and I think that might tell on the day.

Backing Wolves to win a game featuring two or more goals is the play as the home team have needed at least two goals in all but one of their home wins this season in all competitions. West Ham United do have a tendency to just concede too many goals and I think that shows up in this fixture.

At odds against backing Wolves to win a game featuring two or more goals is the play for me.


Liverpool v Everton Pick: The first Merseyside derby game of the season sees Liverpool and Everton in contrasting moods with the former leading the way in the Premier League and the latter on the verge of replacing manager Marco Silva.

That change could come as soon as Thursday morning if Everton were to lose this game and then fall into the bottom three if Southampton were to win their home League game against Norwich City on the same evening. It is not often a manager is given a couple of votes of confidence, but that has been the case for Silva who has almost lost his job after Everton's home defeat to Norwich City and then late loss at Leicester City.

Picking his players up from that defeat at the King Power Stadium is going to very difficult for Silva and this is as tough a test for Everton as they come. The side have lost 5 of their last 6 away Premier League games and have been conceding far too many goals while not having the same threat in the opposition final third and I do think they will struggle to cope with the home team.

In saying that Liverpool have been far from at full tilt themselves and they continue to leak goals, although it has yet to be a situation which has led to dropped Premier League points at Anfield. They have yet to have a home clean sheet in all competitions and Liverpool are now going back to Adrian for one game in goal after Alisson was sent off in the win over Brighton.

Adrian has certainly left the defence feeling vulnerable, but Liverpool have scored goals for fun at home and I would worry for Everton if they fall behind in this one. The front three should be rested having seen two of those players withdrawn on Saturday to earn some minutes of recovery and I think Everton are going to find it very difficult to contain this team.

The two League games between these clubs were very tight last season, but I think Liverpool can make life a bit easier for themselves this time around. With an additional day between games compared with Everton, I think Liverpool will be the final game that Marco Silva manages for the blue side of Merseyside and I think the home team are going to produce a relatively comfortable win on the night.


Sheffield United v Newcastle United Pick: Both Sheffield United and Newcastle United earned important points this past weekend when they perhaps were not expected to and that means there is some momentum to take into the midweek League fixtures.

These two are set to meet on Thursday and I do think both Chris Wilder and Steve Bruce will be targeting the fixture as one from which they can earn the full points.

Sheffield United have looked a little better in recent games and beating Arsenal and Burnley followed by a strong performance for the majority of the 3-3 draw with Manchester United in their last 3 games here will give them confidence. They are a team who create chances but are perhaps missing a clinical striker, although Lys Mousset is trying to change the narrative having scored in 4 of the last 6 games he has played.

He made it 2-0 against Manchester United before coming off in the last game at Bramall Lane and Mousset is likely going to be the big threat to Newcastle United. This is a team who have struggled for consistency and Newcastle United have conceded plenty of away goals all season which makes it hard to see them avoiding a defeat here.

The Magpies did win at West Ham United, but 4 losses from their last 5 away games has to be a concern. Newcastle United were downright poor in their 2-0 defeat at Aston Villa a couple of games ago and I do think Sheffield United will create the chances they need to turn this fixture into three points.

It is difficult to back a team at odds on to win a game when they have managed to do that in 4 of their 14 League games played this season. However 3 of those wins for Sheffield United have come at Bramall Lane and Newcastle United have yet to draw an away fixture.

Sheffield United have scored three goals in each of their last 2 home Premier League games and might have just found something in Mousset. I expect him to make the difference for them against Newcastle United who produced a big effort to earn a 2-2 draw with Manchester City last weekend and who host a winnable fixture against Crystal Palace on Sunday.

That could mean some changes for this fixture which gives Sheffield United enough of an edge to secure a narrow victory on the day.


Arsenal v Brighton Pick: The decision to remove Unai Emery as manager of Arsenal seems like being one that the board ideally didn't want to make and the lack of a replacement being announced suggests that is the case. Jose Mourinho had been linked with the top job at Arsenal but has ended up at rivals Tottenham Hotspur, while the fans are looking for a top, top name to take over.

More realistically is that Arsenal are going to plump for someone like Nuno Espirito Santo or Brendan Rodgers who have been overachieving with Wolves and Leicester City respectively, but you can't rule out Freddie Ljungberg just yet.

The caretaker manager will be given the chance to impress for a second game having overseen the 2-2 draw at Norwich City which underlined the way things have gone for Arsenal this season. Going forward they look a real threat, which isn't a surprise considering the attacking talent they can pick from, but defensively Norwich City created some big openings throughout the game.

I would expect more of the same on Thursday with the limited time to train and change methods between games at this time of the season. That does make it hard to believe in Arsenal who have not won any of their last 8 games in all competitions and who have failed to win their last 4 at the Emirates Stadium, but this does feel like an ideal game to get back on track.

That is no disrespect to Brighton who gave Liverpool a couple of scares in the 2-1 loss at Anfield on Saturday. However they could have been put to the sword very early on and Brighton have lost their last 4 away games in the Premier League and conceded at least twice in each of those games.

Graham Potter has improved the playing style and it has produced some big results, but I also think Brighton can be a little too open and that can be exploited. The likes of Chelsea, Aston Villa and Manchester United created plenty of chances against Brighton in recent home games against them and I would not be surprised if Arsenal can do the same here.

The home team are lacking confidence which makes them vulnerable and Brighton have scored at Old Trafford and Anfield to make it hard to completely draw a line through them. They also managed a 1-1 draw here last season so have to be given due respect in this fixture, but I think Arsenal can create enough chances to win the game.

For all their nice play, Brighton have not scored more than one away goal in any of their last 6 Premier League games. On the other hand Arsenal have scored at least twice in 5 of their 7 League games played at the Emirates Stadium so backing the home team to win a game featuring two or more goals is the call.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Burnley-Manchester City Both Teams to Score @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sheffield United @ 1.85 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Arsenal & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)

November 2019/20: 9-16, - 12.66 Units (50 Units Staked, - 25.32% Yield)
October 2019/20: 16-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 15

There is a very short turnaround from GameWeek 14 to GameWeek 15 and so I think any changes that people are making to their Fantasy teams have to be with the longer term in mind (meaning two or three GameWeeks and not just for this week alone).

My GW14 team disappointed even though the hit taken to bring in Danny Ings and Trent Alexander-Arnold did at least work out as I would have expected. Both were involved in Bonus Points in GW14 as well as producing multiple returns anyway, although my decision to go with two Liverpool defenders was burned again as they continue winning without clean sheets.

The disappointment for myself is that the last two weeks I have fallen below the average both times, while my continued decision to interchange my Captain is still hurting me. In GW13 I had Raheem Sterling and in GW14 it was Sadio Mane and I don't think it will surprise anyone to read that the latter scored in 13 and the former in 14.

It makes a massive difference and has seen me lose some ground in some of the deeper Leagues I am involved in, while my Ranking has slipped from inside the top 70K to outside the top 325K. I am irritated and annoyed, but things can quickly turn back around and I am looking to put the work in to do that.

As I have mentioned it is a short turn from GW14 ending on Sunday evening and GW15 beginning on Tuesday. I spoke about the Tammy Abraham situation on Saturday and this remains the biggest decision I need to make with the knowledge that my Wild Card from the first half of the season is going to be activated very soon.

I wrote on Saturday that I have decided to keep Abraham through the GW because I wanted to hear the update from Chelsea on Monday- they have games against Aston Villa, Everton, Bournemouth and Tottenham Hotspur to come before I am expecting to get my Wild Card in play, and I do think Abraham could have a very good time against those teams.

Chelsea create enough to believe he would add to his tally for the season, but the injury picked up against Valencia continues to cloud things. If he misses out on Wednesday the fixtures certainly begin to look a lot less appealing collectively considering the Everton and Spurs games are away from home and I would also anticipate a big drop in his price if the England striker is out again this Wednesday.

There are options out there for my squad which would ultimately help me shore up other areas in the coming GWs and that is where I stand at the moment.

The two players that most intrigue me are Jordan Ayew at Crystal Palace and Lys Mousset at Sheffield United with my very slight lean towards the latter.

Jordan Ayew has been starting for Crystal Palace and I mentioned a couple of weeks ago how they are ready to enter a very manageable portion of their schedule. Bournemouth, Watford, Brighton and Newcastle United are the next four games for Palace, although I have to admit that they are a team who share their goals around and Wilfried Zaha might be the more appealing target having found his goalscoring boots in recent games.

I also think Ayew is more of focal point with the tactics Roy Hodgson uses and he plays with his back to goal to try and get others involved and that is shown by his average shots per game and also the chances that have fallen his way.

On the other hand Lys Mousset has scored four goals in his last six games for Sheffield United and has become a starter for a team who have created chances but are lacking goals. The former Bournemouth player might have shown Chris Wilder he can answer the question about where the goals are going to come from and Sheffield United face Newcastle United, Norwich City, Aston Villa and Brighton in their next four.

It is arguably as good a list as Crystal Palace's fixtures and I think Mousset has every chance of continuing his form. Only David McGoldrick can rival his shot count since the win over Arsenal and John Lundstram has been given the slightly better chances to score, but when a player hits form and is going to be given minutes I think it is a decent time to get behind them.

So there we have it- the deadline is still a little time away before I make my final call but I do know bringing in one of the two strikers mentioned will free up funds to spend in improving other areas. I do have to do something with David De Gea and Andreas Pereira for starters, even if Manchester United have better fixtures to come once they get through the next two games.

The goalkeeper is lower on my list of priorities, but Pereira might soon be under pressure for a regular starting place with Jesse Lingard back and healthy, and both Scott McTominay and Paul Pogba expected to return shortly too. My reasoning for his selection in the first place was that he was playing in the Number 10 role for United and so should have opportunities for more shots and being in a position to produce an assist or two, but that hasn't panned out with injuries and he could soon be squeezed out of the starting eleven (as a Manchester United fan I will be the first to tell you that Pereira should be nowhere near the first team).

If I take out Abraham then there is a real chance to have a massive improvement in the Pereira position in the squad, but I can still make a solid transfer to change him if I do decide to stick with the Chelsea man. My decision has really come down to whether I am changing Abraham or keep my FT for GW15 under my belt to use before the Saturday GW16 fixtures, but it is one that I am likely going to be going back and forth with until the 630pm deadline.


My last feeling before I post this is that Abraham is going to miss out. While I would not be surprised if he is on the bench, I think Frank Lampard will have looked at fixtures against Everton and Lille coming up and recognised he can't really afford to have Abraham suffer a setback if not at 100% and he would expect his Chelsea team to have too much for Aston Villa anyway.

I wrote much of above on Monday evening and so my decision has been reached that I will go with Lys Mousset over Jordan Ayew and look for Sheffield United to outscore Crystal Palace in the next four games before my Wild Card is likely to be activated.

Mousset has the statistical edge over Ayew and it will also allow me to make an important transfer in GW16 to improve my overall team.

My GameWeek 15 Team

David De Gea- Manchester United lack clean sheets, but I have to keep the Spanish goalkeeper in as I am not taking a hit to take him out. No team has really shown a consistent ability to earn clean sheets so there is no point in taking a hit to change this position.

Andrew Robertson- as I have been saying for weeks, Liverpool might not get many clean sheets but they do have the potential for attacking returns from their full backs.

Trent Alexander-Arnold- the same as above. Home game against Everton going to be tough, but Liverpool did earn two clean sheets against them in the Premier League last season.

Caglar Soyuncu- the run of clean sheets came to an end for Leicester City, but they have a chance to begin a new one when facing Watford at home.

John Lundstram- a home game against Sheffield United and effectively picking a midfielder with a chance of earning a clean sheet bonus.

Anthony Martial- people are losing faith with Anthony Martial in the game and two tough fixtures to come. However he remains the Manchester United Number 9.

Sadio Mane (C)- I am planning on keeping him Captain for the next three GWs as Liverpool face Everton, Bournemouth and Watford.

Raheem Sterling- difficult away game at Burnley and then a home game against Manchester United. He could be the main threat for Manchester City though and they should score at least four goals across those two games.

Youri Tielemans- not many returns from the Belgian playmaker in recent games, but plays in an attacking Leicester City team who have a home game against Watford.

Danny Ings- kept his recent goalscoring form up with another on Saturday. Home game with Norwich City should mean he has one or two good chances in this one too.

Lys Mousset- four goals in six Sheffield United appearances is not really going to be sustainable, but I am willing to ride the Lys Mousset momentum for a few games coming up. Sheffield United create chances and Mousset looks more dangerous than David McGoldrick as well as having the confidence of scoring goals behind him.

I bring him in for Tammy Abraham which means a big saving is made and also sets me up to improve other areas of my team.


Bench- Michael McGovern, Fiyaki Tomori (this might surprise with a home game against Aston Villa to come, especially with Chelsea's run of 3 home clean sheets only ending on Saturday. However Aston Villa can cause problems and I am happy with Tomori coming in if one of my starters is absent. Chelsea might have more chance of a clean sheet than Liverpool too, but the attacking talents of the full backs I have makes it impossible to drop them), Andrea Pereira (tough home game and playing deeper than I wanted), Xande Silva

NFL Week 14 Picks 2014 (December 4-8)

Week 13 Thoughts

Miami Dolphins showing character: Getting into the Play Offs in the tough AFC was always going to be difficult for the Miami Dolphins who aren't quite good enough to keep tabs with the New England Patriots in the AFC East. That means the Wild Card spots were about as good as it could be for the Dolphins this season and they are currently occupying one of those spots.

It could have been all so different on Monday Night Football as Miami escaped with a win from the road game at the New York Jets, but I am looking at the positives from that one.

There is no doubt that Miami would have lost that game in recent years and you only have to go back twelve months to see how far the Dolphins have come. With destiny in their own hands, Miami were embarrassed by the Jets and the Buffalo Bills in back to back weeks to fall out of Play Off contention and it looked like they were going to suffer another devastating loss on Monday Night.

However, they did enough to win that game, with some luck going their way, and now Miami have a huge game in Week 14 when they host the Baltimore Ravens. If they can win that game, the Dolphins will be in a very strong position with three weeks remaining of the regular season and would be favourites to make the Play Offs, but a loss to the Ravens may be too much to overcome.

To win, Miami still need to get more out of Ryan Tannehill down the field, where he has been at his poorest so far this season, and take advantage of the Baltimore Secondary. Being at home is key and there is now some excitement that the Dolphins could be in with a chance of making the Play Offs for the first time since 2008.

Can Drew Stanton do enough to help the Arizona Cardinals into the Play Offs? I mentioned last week that I don't think the Arizona Cardinals will make the Play Offs with Drew Stanton and that was at a time when I thought they would beat the Atlanta Falcons.

Stanton has made mistakes, missed Receivers and the Cardinals are now in a position where the Wild Card spots look their most likely avenue to the Play Offs.

With Seattle improving, it isn't too far-fetched to think the Seahawks sweep Arizona and that will give them the tie-breaker in the Division, while teams like Philadelphia/Dallas, Detroit and San Francisco remain in the Wild Card race.

There will need to be a huge improvement from Stanton if Arizona are going to win another couple of games that will lead them to the Play Offs. This week is a huge game for them against the Kansas City Chiefs, for both teams in actual fact, and the loser of that might be out of the Play Offs I would feel.

Should the Cleveland Browns have made the change at Quarter Back? On Wednesday it was announced that Mike Pettine was going to stick with Brian Hoyer as Quarter Back over Johnny Manziel which has sparked a debate as to whether it was the right decision.

Most seem to agree with the choice, but I don't think I can count myself as one of those people.

Let's preface this with this- I am not a Manziel fan, never have been a Manziel fan and wouldn't care less if he is a First Round bust... However, he did spark Cleveland last week in their loss to Buffalo and Hoyer has been regressing over the last month and I am not sure the Browns need to see what they have in Manziel for a full game.

I don't believe Cleveland will be paying Hoyer the big bucks in the off-season so it makes no sense to me for them to persist with him, especially as he hasn't been playing that well. The argument is that he has led the team to a 7-5 record and in the Play Off hunt, but the Browns have been fortunate to win a couple of games over the past few weeks that had almost nothing to do with Hoyer and I think Manziel was the player that the others could rally towards.

I'll take it all back if Hoyer leads the Browns to a 3-1 record down the stretch that may bring a Play Off spot, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if the discussion about the starting Quarter Back is resumed next week.

Green Bay versus New England would make for a good Super Bowl: It was a fascinating game that was much closer on the scoreboard than it perhaps should have been, but both the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots would make for a good Super Bowl if they get the chance to have their rematch there in a couple of months time.

There are plenty of obstacles for both teams to pass if they are to get to Arizona, but both are in a position to finish with the best record in their respective Conferences and there aren't too many teams that will fancy their chances of winning on the road against either.

Aaron Rodgers has played so well at Lambeau Field over the last couple of years, while beating Tom Brady and the Patriots in Foxboro in January is not something I would task to too many teams in the AFC.

Play Off Prediction: AFC- New England, Denver, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Miami, Kansas City

NFC- Green Bay, Philadelphia, Seattle, New Orleans, Detroit, Dallas

Top Ten

1) Green Bay Packers (9-3): They were Number 2 last week and deserve to move up with their win over the previous Number 1.

2) New England Patriots (9-3): Still the team to beat in the AFC and remain favourites to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

3) Denver Broncos (9-3): Peyton Manning and the Denver Offense have gotten it done very differently by running the ball very effectively over the last two weeks.

4) Philadelphia Eagles (9-3): A big win on the road in Dallas, but next two weeks will determine all you need to know about the Philadelphia Eagles.

5) Seattle Seahawks (8-4): Beating Arizona at home was impressive, but dominating the San Francisco 49ers on the road had signs of Seattle being back to their best.

6) Detroit Lions (8-4): The Lions dominated Chicago on Thanksgiving Day and that Defense can take them very far.

7) Indianapolis Colts (8-4): Still don't believe that Defense is going to help the Colts move past too many Play Off rounds.

8) Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1): Three consecutive road wins is impressive, but Cincinnati were very fortunate to beat Tampa Bay last week and I just don't trust this team.

9) Dallas Cowboys (8-4): The Cowboys have dropped a fair amount for me because that performance against Philadelphia was so, so disappointing and now they have to prove they are capable of winning big games in December.

10) Miami Dolphins (7-5): They have beaten New England, had an 11 point lead over Denver going into the Fourth Quarter, and were seconds from beating Green Bay and Detroit. All teams that I have in the top six and Miami won a huge game over the Jets that they would have previously lost.

Bottom Five

32) Oakland Raiders (1-11): Losing by 52 points is just plain embarrassing for a once proud franchise.

31) Tennessee Titans (2-10): This is just not a very good team and one that needs something of a real rebuild.

30) New York Jets (2-10): Rex Ryan was inconsolable with the way that the New York Jets blew the game against the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football.

29) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10): Bad teams find a way to lose as Lovie Smith says, and Tampa Bay found another way to lose last week.

28) New York Giants (3-9): How do you lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars after being up so big? Tom Coughlin must be just about ready to walk away from this job.

Week 14 Picks

Some really poor picks and some really bad luck contributed to a disappointing Week 13 and the first time I have had back to back losing weeks in the NFL this season. Unfortunately the last two weeks have had a huge hit on the season total and I will be looking to stop the bleeding in Week 14.

Picks on San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Arizona were very quickly recognised as ones that were not going to be successful.

Then there were the ones on Cleveland and Cincinnati where both teams had their opportunity to cover but killed themselves with critical turnovers.

Baltimore and Chicago both had big leads in their games but inexplicably fell apart and it all added up to some bad picks with bad luck in Week 14.

Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears Pick: Both teams are coming off heavy Thanksgiving Day beatdowns, but that also means both have had plenty of time to try and right the ship ahead of this one. The Dallas Cowboys have to avoid looking ahead to the rematch with the Philadelphia Eagles after being blown out by their Divisional rivals at home, while the Chicago Bears are basically out of Play Off contention after blowing a big lead against the Detroit Lions on the road before being blown out too.

The public are pounding Dallas as the road favourite in this one, but I want to go against them in this game and take the home underdog, a spot that has been favourable. That isn't saying much about the Chicago Bears who have been a poor underdog over the last three years so this game could all depend on whether Jay Cutler has come to play.

Alshon Jeffrey sounds like he will be limited at best, but Brandon Marshall and Martellus Bennett give Cutler some real weapons to exploit a Dallas Defense that is perhaps playing down to the expectations many had in pre-season. With Matt Forte capable of being a decent safety blanket out of the backfield, Cutler should be able to move the chains, while Forte should also have a strong game rushing the ball.

On the other hand, Tony Romo can't ask for a better game to bounce back from a pretty poor performance on Thanksgiving Day as the Bears Secondary has been beset by injuries. The Offensive Line might not have had the best day in protection of Romo, but the Quarter Back should have success handing the ball to DeMarco Murray who can rip off big gains behind this Line.

Both teams should be able to put up points, but I am surprised that the Bears are being given more than a Field Goal start in the game. Dallas have not been a great favourite to back and the Cowboys are 0-3 against the spread over the last three seasons when trying to recover from a Divisional loss.

It is a must win game for Dallas so I expect them to be focused, but Chicago can make this competitive and the points look too tempting to ignore. However, the Bears have been so bad in recent weeks that I can't go over the minimum unit for this one.


It has been a very busy couple of days so I won't have full analysis behind the picks, although they are shown below.

MY PICKS: Chicago Bears + 4 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 3 Points @ 1.95 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Washington Redskins + 3 Points @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 8 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 3 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 3 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 10.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 10 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 2.5 Points @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 8 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 13 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Week 13: 4-7, - 6.36 Units
Week 12: 3-6, - 4.36 Units
Week 11: 5-4, + 1.20 Units
Week 10: 4-2, + 3.90 Units
Week 9: 4-3, + 1.42 Units
Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 54-53-2, + 0.54 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units