Boxing Picks 2023- David Benavidez vs Demetrius Andrade (November 25th)

There are some big nights left between now and the end of the calendar year, but this may be the best main event that we have left.

An argument could be made for Devin Haney vs Regis Prograis, while casual fans may be more intrigued by the deep card set up in Saudi Arabia a couple of days before Christmas, but this one between David Benavidez and Demetrius Andrade is expected to set up the next Challenger for Canelo Alvarez and the Undisputed Super Middleweight Belts he holds.

This weekend we have a rematch between Katie Taylor and Chantelle Cameron in Ireland too, but most eyes will be on the last really big Showtime card from the United States.

David Benavidez vs Demetrius Andrade

There is a genuine feeling that if it wasn't for the gold at the end of the line that these two fighters may be operating in very different Divisions.

In recent years, both David Benavidez and Demetrius Andrade have called out Canelo Alvarez time and time again without getting the pound for pound superstar n the ring.

Without that potential bout, you have to feel that Benavidez would have moved up to 175 pounds and Andrade would be operating in the Middleweight Division. Instea both insist on making the Super Middleweight limit and try and force that fight with Canelo Alvarez, one that could be career defining and, perhaps even more importantly for the two potential Challengers, highly rewarding financially.

After the deal Canelo Alvarez signed with PBC, it does sound like the winner of this one is going to be first in line to take on Alvarez next May.

And that means both David Benavidez and Demetrius Andrade have to leave it all in the ring.

Inactivity has to be a real concern for Demetrius Andrade, while it cannot be ignored that he has had a single fight in the Super Middleweight Division. This will be just the second fight he has had in a little over two years and Andrade is in with someone who is much bigger than him.

David Benavidez has not been a lot more active, but his win over Caleb Plant earlier this year will certainly mean he has less ring rust to shift.

That is also a quality win and there is a feeling that Andrade has wasted his potential by taking too many 'easy' fights and simply sitting on the sidelines and hoping a big fight lands in his lap. He might be quick early, but Demetrius Andrade is going to find it very difficult to keep David Benavidez from grinding forward and breaking him down.

Credit has to be given to Caleb Plant for coming through some very rough moments late in the defeat to Benavidez.

However, he is naturally a bigger man than Andrade and the feeling is that the relentless pressure that David Benavidez brings into every fight will eventually break through the Andrade defences. The slickness will take Andrade so far, but the feeling has long been that David Benavidez is going to be too big and too strong for his undefeated opponent who has moved too far up the Divisions.

Demetrius Andrade can use his movement and pot shots to just keep David Benavidez honest for three or four Rounds, but by halfway you have to expect the bigger man to have taken control. At some point Demetrius Andrade may be forced to make a decision as to how much he is willing to risk, but Benavidez will not stop moving forward and a referee stoppage could be in play late on.

A decent undercard has been put together for this main event and Hector Luis Garcia can return to the Super Featherweight limit to defend his World Title successfully.

It should be a decent fight against Lamont Roach, while the Subriel Matias and Shohjahon Ergashev bout looks like being a potential show stealer.

Subriel Matias can showcase his power to defend his IBF Light-Welterweight Title.

And after some personal issues, Jermall Charlo is back in the ring, even if he is not being asked to defend his World Middleweight Title.

Assuming he can make a deal after missing weight, Charlo has the chance to impress against Jose Benavidez Jr who is fighting way outside his weight class.

Ring rust will mean Jermall Charlo needs to take some time, but Benavidez Jr is the naturally smaller fighter and has never fought at this limit before. That has to show up and Charlo can find some big punches late to force a Stoppage before chasing bigger fights in 2024.

Over in Dublin, the rematch between Katie Taylor and Chantelle Cameron will take place and the feeling is that we are likely to see repeat, rather than revenge.

The odds reflect that with Cameron favourite this time, but the selections from the card come from the undercard.

Paddy Donovan can continue his progress with another Stoppage win over Danny Ball- the British fighter has experience and a decent record, but big thins are expected from Donovan and Danny Ball was Stopped when stepping up to face Ekow Essuman.

It was not just a nightmare for Katie Taylor in Dublin in May, but Gary Cully was stunned in a Stoppage defeat.

He can bounce back on his return against Reece Mould and Cully can make the home fans much happier with a big Stoppage win of his own.

MY PICKS: David Benavidez to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Subriel Matias to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.57 Coral (2 Units)

Jermall Charlo to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.87 Bet365 (2 Units)

Paddy Donovan to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Gary Cully to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 55-103, - 38.73 Units (292 Units Staked, - 13.26% Yield) 

College Football Week 13 Picks 2023 (November 24-25)

There is plenty on the line for the best teams in College Football over the next two weeks as they negotiate 'rivalry week' before the Championship Games are played.

With only four places available for those chasing a National Championship, there is very little room for error, while a number of one loss teams hope to force their way into the conversation.

In twelve months time, there is not going to be nearly as much drama in the final two weeks with the College Football PlayOff format expanded to be available for twelve teams. You could pick the top twelve from this season without much drama and that may not be the best thing for the College Football regular season going forward, even if the fans could benefit from some big time PlayOff action.

Ultimately finding the balance between a competitive and meaningful regular season and a strong PlayOff format is not easy- only the NFL seems to have gotten that right so far, but no one would be surprised if there another PlayOff expansion sooner rather than later and they may end up moving in a similar direction as some of the other major North American sports.

Only one change occurred in the top four College Football Rankings when the Washington Huskies moved ahead of the Florida State Seminoles.

The Huskies were winners as road underdogs in Week 12 and they will likely be selected for the College Football PlayOff if they can win their remaining two games, although the Oregon Ducks look a significant Conference danger.

We don't really know why the Committee selects the teams in the positions they do from week to week, but there has to be have been some impact from the Jordan Travis injury.

The Florida State Quarter Back suffered a serious looking injury in Week 12 and you can only hope that Travis will make a full recovery as he hopes to continues to his career at the next level.

Despite losing a key player, the Seminoles will still believe an unbeaten season would be good enough for them to earn a top four place in the final standings, especially as Ohio State and Michigan are facing one another in Week 13.

However, that path looks much more troubling without Jordan Travis and the Seminoles might actually be an underdog when they face the Louisville Cardinals in the ACC Championship Game.

Rivalry Week is coming up though and so much can change with motivation to play spoiler extremely high for those underdogs playing some of the Ranked teams over the next couple of days.

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: They have already secured the Big Ten West Divisional title and the Iowa Hawkeyes (9-2) will be looking for double digit winning season as soon as the end of Week 12.

However, there is a feeling that the Hawkeyes could overlook this final game of the regular season knowing they are playing in the Big Ten Championship Game next week no matter what. It may mean they do not want to risk key players, and the Hawkeyes have been playing with tight margins even when their best available team has been put on the field.

They head to Lincoln to play the Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-6) who are at the beginning of what first year Head Coach Matt Rhule considers to be a significant transitional period to bring the Cornhuskers back up amongst the best teams in College Football.

It has been a difficult period, but the Rhule knows how close the Cornhuskers are to earning Bowl eligibility with just a single win needed. The Head Coach has overseen three losses in a row and those have been by a combined 13 points and led to some frustration that his Nebraska team have not already reached the six win cut off point.

Earning that sixth win against the Hawkeyes is going to be a considerable challenge, although the Nebraska Cornhuskers will know they are not going to be blown away by this opponent.

As impressive as Iowa have been Defensively, they have been struggling Offensively and that has led to an unprecedented run of total points line set by the oddsmakers. Right now they cannot make that total line low enough with the Hawkeyes playing six consecutive 'unders' and the line is at 25.5 total points for this one.

Barring a complete loss of focus for Iowa, which cannot be completely ruled out, it also makes the points being given to the road underdog look pretty appealing.

Iowa are Offensively challenged and they are not going to find a lot of room to operate against the Nebraska Defensive unit. Running the ball has been tough, while the Hawkeyes have not really had a Quarter Back that they can rely upon.

Deacon Hill is likely to get the call at Quarter Back, while the Hawkeyes will still give Leshon Williams a lot of carries and hope he can rip something open. The Nebraska Secondary have allowed some passing lanes to develop and Hill may be able to expose those at some point, especially as he is likely going to have some time in the pocket.

On Thursday night, Brock Purdy will be playing an important NFL game on Thanksgiving Day, and on Friday his younger brother Chubba Purdy is expected to be given the start by Nebraska at Quarter Back. Chubba Purdy, like Jeff Sims and Heinrich Haarberg, is a dual threat Quarter Back and that is going to be key for the Cornhuskers as they look to find a way to move the ball against this tough Iowa Defensive unit.

Nebraska's Offensive Line have helped establish the run, but Purdy and the Cornhuskers may not find much change out of this Hawkeyes Defensive Line.

They do not match up that well with the Hawkeyes Offensively and Chubba Purdy might not have many good places to throw the ball. The Hawkeyes should be able to generate some pressure with their pass rush and that may lead to a couple of mistakes, which shifts the game in favour of Iowa.

The Cornhuskers have not been the best home favourite to back and even this relatively small spread looks like one that the Iowa Hawkeyes can use to their advantage, even in a losing effort.

Nebraska are highly motivated to try and secure a Bowl bid, but the Hawkeyes should also want to build momentum into the Big Ten Championship Game and this should be another low-scoring, grinder Iowa have been involved in.

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Texas Longhorns Pick: This has been a season when a number of old rivalries will be played for the last time for the foreseeable future and this is another one of those games in the Big 12 Conference.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-5) do not need a lot of motivation to want to play spoiler for the Texas Longhorns (10-1), but doing that in the final season that the Longhorns are playing in the Big 12 would be all the sweeter.

Even a loss may not prevent Texas from playing in the Big 12 Championship Game, but they have a loss already on the record and the Red Raiders could end any Longhorns hopes of making the College Football PlayOff by winning in Austin.

Three wins in a row has given the Red Raiders some momentum and they certainly will believe they can move the ball against this Texas Defensive unit. However, much is going to depend on Behren Morton at Quarter Back even if Tahj Brooks has been the best Offensive option for the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

The problem for the Red Raiders is that Brooks is going to find it very difficult to pound the rock against the Texas Defensive Line which has been strong against the run all season. Even in recent games, the Longhorns have held teams to an average of 1.7 yards per carry and so it will be tough for Tahj Brooks to continue his strong season in which he has churned out 100 yards per game on the ground on a weekly basis.

Behren Morton is going to be the starting Quarter Back and Tyler Shough has announced that he will be entering the transfer portal- this may allow Morton to play with some freedom against a Longhorns Secondary that has given up plenty of passing yards in recent games.

It will be important for Texas Tech to have the confidence in Behren Morton to make his throws in what could be a potential shoot out with the Texas Longhorns.

The one key difference between these teams is that the Longhorns should have a lot more Offensive balance compared with Texas Tech and that should give them the edge as they look to secure a Big 12 Championship Game appearance.

Establishing the run will be challenging for the Red Raiders, but the Longhorns Offensive Line should be able to open up some big holes up front. CJ Baxter came in as the starting Running Back for Jonathan Brooks, who has had his season ended by injury, and he picked up where Brooks left off with a strong performance on the ground and can certainly do the same here.

It should mean Quinn Ewers can have another solid day throwing the ball for the Texas Longhorns without having to push himself too hard as he continues his recovery from a shoulder injury. Having Ewers returning at Quarter Back is a positive for the Texas Longhorns and playing in front of the chains should mean he can attack this Red Raiders Secondary with real confidence.

With a limited pass rush trying to deal with this strong Offensive Line, Quinn Ewers will have time to make his decisions and Texas should be able to do enough to pull away for an important victory.

There is pressure to win and secure a place in the Big 12 Championship Game, while keeping the College Football PlayOff hopes alive, but Texas have shown they can cope in recent games. They have not been able to put up the big Offensive points as they would have liked, but the Longhorns can use the home crowd to wear down the Texas Tech Red Raiders and win this one by a couple of Touchdowns.

Michigan State Spartans vs Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: Being in the Big Ten East Division means having to face two of the current top three in the College Football Rankings and that has proven to be a step too far for the Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2).

The record is one that the players should be proud of, but both Penn State losses have been to the unbeaten Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes. Performances outside of those two games have been very strong and even those two losses have been in tight, competitive outings.

It makes the Nittany Lions one of the better teams in College Football, although that is not likely to be reflected in their eventual Bowl Game.

Well that is also on the assumption that the two top Big Ten East teams are not both invited into the College Football PlayOff, although there is still a possibility for whichever of the teams lose when the Wolverines and Buckeyes meet in Week 13.

The Nittany Lions are big favourites when travelling to the Michigan State Spartans (4-7), who are probably glad to see the back of this season. The Spartans have had to fire their Head Coach mid-season for off field issues, while they have looked considerably short compared to their other Divisional rivals.

However, Michigan State have won two of their last three games, both in the Big Ten Conference, and that may give them some confidence.

This game is being played in Detroit rather than on the Michigan State campus, and that is a disappointment to the fans even if they are expected to travel. The Spartans will be more concerned with trying to find a way to move the ball with any kind of consistency as they face one of the top Defensive units not only in the Conference, but in College Football.

It might have helped if the Spartans had shown any Offensive consistency prior to Week 13, but that has not been the case. The Spartans will struggle to run the ball and that only increases the pressure on Katin Houser at Quarter Back who had 245 passing yards in Week 12 with 3 Touchdown passes, although he did also have 2 Interceptions against the Indiana Hoosiers.

Throwing against the Indiana Secondary is much 'easier' than being able to do so against the Penn State Nittany Lions who have held teams to 161 passing yards per game for the season. Even the top Quarter Backs in the Conference have struggled to find much consistency throwing the ball against the Penn State Secondary and Houser is not expected to have a lot of good fortune in this game.

Being able to establish the run should give the Penn State Nittany Lions an edge in this game and they can pick up some big gains on the ground. In recent games, the Spartans Defensive Line have allowed teams to average 4.5 yards per carry and pick up over 175 yards per game on the ground and that is while facing some of the weaker teams in the Conference.

Now they have to deal with this tough Penn State Offensive Line and the expectation is that the Nittany Lions will be able to establish the run and make things easy for whoever starts at Quarter Back.

Drew Allar is expected to be available, but Beau Primula filled in when Allar went down with an injury at Quarter Back last week and is expected to be given some snaps in this one regardless. Both were more effective as runners last week, but they should be able to attack this Spartans Secondary with some success.

The Penn State Offensive Line is not only effective in run blocking, but they have given the Quarter Back time in the pocket and the Nittany Lions should be able to move the ball and score enough points to cover a big line.

With the Defensive unit expected to largely contain the Michigan State Spartans on the other side of the ball, Penn State should become the latest of the top teams in the Big Ten who crush the Michigan State Spartans. In a neutral setting, the Nittany Lions should be able to pull clear and produce another big win after beating Rutgers by 21 ponts last week.

Head Coach James Franklin is known for covering as a favourite in his time leading the Penn State Nittany Lions and his team have the best 'cover rate' as a favourite since 2014.

They are 8-1 against the spread as the favourite this season and Franklin is not afraid of running up the score when his team are on top. That may be the case in this Week 13 game and Penn State can win and cover in this 'road' game against the Michigan State Spartans.

Kentucky Wildcats @ Louisville Cardinals Pick: The large majority of 'Rivalry Week' games will involve teams playing in the same Conference, but there are some that matter even if they don't have Conference implications.

One of those takes place on Saturday when the Louisville Cardinals (10-1) try to snap a four game losing run against rivals Kentucky Wildcats (6-5). Both teams have already secured some of their aims this season with the Cardinals playing in the ACC Championship Game and the Wildcats being Bowl eligible, but there is no doubting the in-State rivalry and what it means to the fans, the players and the Coaching Staff involved.

A 12-1 season is entirely possible for the Louisville Cardinals, but the PlayOff Committee have shown little appetite to push them up the College Rankings. It means even winning the ACC Championship is unlikely to end with a place in the top four and the PlayOff, but there will be plenty of other teams around the nation looking for the Cardinals to snap the Florida State unbeaten run if the Seminoles are able to get out of this week.

Jeff Brohm will know all about the importance of focusing on this week having been a former Quarter Back with Louisville and the Head Coach is having a very successful first season in charge. His reputation as a Head Coach is growing and growing, but Brohm knows what makes the fans happy and that means winning this game.

Louisville have won four in a row since their upset loss against the Pittsburgh Panthers, although the Defensive unit have not been at their best in the last couple of weeks. That will need to improve if they are going to win out this season, although the Cardinals do look to match up well with the Kentucky Offensive unit that has just struggled down the stretch.

The Cardinals are strong at the Defensive Line and will force the Wildcats to take to the air in order to move the chains. Ray Davis will get the yards he needs to earn 1000 yards for the season on the ground, but the Wildcats need to be more consistent with their passing game and will not be able to afford the mistakes they made in losing to the South Carolina Gamecocks in Week 12.

Nothing will be easy for Louisville on the other side of the ball as they look to also establish the run, but more consistent play out of the Quarter Back position will mean Kentucky cannot focus solely on clamping down on the run. Jack Plummer will need to play a clean game to just open up some of the running lanes, but he has played well enough at Quarter Back and has thrown over 550 yards and 5 Touchdown passes in his last couple of starts.

You cannot ignore the dominance that the Kentucky Wildcats have enjoyed in this Rivalry series over the last four years, but the edge has to be with the Louisville Cardinals on current form. Covering this number will not be easy considering some of the inconsistent performances on both sides of the ball over the last couple of weeks, but the Kentucky Wildcats have been having a tough time with five losses in six games.

They have suffered some blowout defeats in that time and the Louisville Cardinals can roll into the ACC Championship Game having given the fans at home a very good send off in the 2023 season.

Ohio State Buckeyes @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: The Georgia Bulldogs may be the current Number 1 team in the College Football Rankings, but the next two places are filled by the top two teams in the Big Ten. Both cannot make it through to the Championship Game though as the Michigan Wolverines (11-0) prepare to host the Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0) with the Big Ten East Division on the line.

Ultimately the winner is going to be a huge favourite to win the Big Ten Championship Game and they will then be almost certainly going to be selected to play in the College Football PlayOff.

Things will be a lot murkier for the losing team with one loss on the record and without the chance to make amends by winning a Conference Championship. Last season it did not prevent both the Buckeyes and Wolverines in making the PlayOff despite the latter winning this huge rivalry game.

Both ended up being narrowly beaten in those PlayOff Games without making the National Championship Game, but the focus this year is to win this final regular season game and move onto the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa next week.

Unsurprisingly these teams are really matched up well and it does feel there will be little between them, even though the Michigan Wolverines have blown out the Buckeyes in each of the last two seasons. The Wolverines were big underdogs in both 2021 and 2022, but won those games by 15 and 22 points respectively, although the situation is going to feel different in 2023 with Michigan set as a favourite.

Seven of the last nine games between the Wolverines and Buckeyes have seen the underdog cover the spread and this is another where taking the points looks the best call.

On both sides of the ball, the trenches are going to be key.

However, the Ohio State Offensive Line have at least been helping produce much bigger plays compared with the Michigan Offensive Line and that may show up in this game. Blake Corum may be the stand out Running Back in the game, but his Wolverines Offensive Line may find it tough to really get something going against the Buckeyes Defensive Line, which means there is arguably going to be more pressure on JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back compared with Kyle McCord.

Ohio State's Secondary play has been very strong in recent wins and the Buckeyes look to be peaking at the right time.

Avoiding errors is going to be the key and the team that wins the turnover battle will come out on top.

Picking out which of these teams will be able to do that is never going to be easy with the fine margins at play, but the feeling is that the Ohio State Buckeyes are playing at a slightly stronger level than the Michigan Wolverines right now.

Ryan Day and his players do have some mental demons to exorcise having been crushed by Michigan in back to back years, but they can certainly make enough plays to keep this one much closer. Having more than a Field Goal advantage in a rivalry that has been dominated by the underdog in recent years look like enough points to want to keep on your side and the Buckeyes can potentially win this one outright.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Auburn Tigers Pick: The SEC Championship Game is set for next week and that means the Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1) still have hopes of making the College Football PlayOff. The loss to the Texas Longhorns will not be a massive issue if the Crimson Tide win out and the Longhorns win the Big 12 Championship, although that does mean Alabama winning two big games in a row.

They are effectively playing off a Bye having crushed an overmatched opponent in Week 12, but there has also been a familiar feel about Alabama over the last month. Earlier in the season it did look like being a transitional year for a team that hands off a lot of talent to the NFL every year, but the Crimson Tide are motoring now and their big wins over the Tennessee Volunteers and LSU Tigers have impressed, and the Crimson Tide are up to Number 8 in the PlayOff Rankings.

Beating the Auburn Tigers (6-5) may not impress the Committee too much, especially after the Tigers were embarrassingly beaten by the New Mexico State Aggies at home in Week 12. They were 25 point favourites, but Auburn were beaten by 21 points, while they had won three SEC games in succession and looked to be building momentum before the really disappointing defeat.

Some of the reasoning has to be that the Auburn Tigers were looking ahead to this big rivalry game as they hope to put the final nail in the coffin as far as the Alabama hopes of making the PlayOff are concerned. They will also have been keen to dent any Alabama confidence ahead of playing the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game and there is little doubt that Auburn are going to be a lot more focused and significantly better in Week 13 compared to what we saw in Week 12.

Payton Thorne is a dual-threat Quarter Back and it does feel like a game in which his legs will be more important than his arm, while Jarquez Hunter will also be expected to earn a lot of carries. The Auburn Offensive Line have been strong up front and there have been one or two holes in the Alabama Defensive Line in recent games which should give the home underdog an opportunity to establish the run.

While the game is competitive, it is imperative for Auburn to move the ball forward on the ground and give Thorne an opportunity to attack a Secondary which is playing well. Converting First Downs is clearly going to be easier from Third and Short situations and Auburn may actually make a few more Offensive plays than they managed in an unfocused defeat to the Aggies.

Moving the ball, extending drives and keeping the Alabama Offensive unit on the sidelines to lose rhythm will give Auburn the chance to keep this close, but it is unlikely that they will earn the upset.

After some early teething problems, Jalen Milroe and the Alabama Offense look to have found their mojo and they are rolling on this side of the ball.

The Quarter Back will be aided by his Offensive Line which has found their feet when it comes to run blocking and the Crimson Tide are expected to bully this Auburn Defensive Line. Alabama should be able to rip off some big plays on the ground and that is only going to make very comfortable for a confident Jalen Milroe who is playing at a level that many have come to expect from a Crimson Tide Quarter Back.

The Offensive Line have offered Milroe plenty of protection, although it will be a test to throw the ball against this Auburn Secondary.

However, Jalen Milroe has displayed his strength in the passing game since his early struggles and the expectation is that Alabama will be able to produce another big win against a Divisional rival.

Alabama have won three in a row against the Auburn Tigers and two of those wins have been in blowouts.

However, playing in Auburn is obviously going to be much tougher and the last three games between these rivals hosted by the Tigers have been really competitive. It is perhaps not wise to put too much stock into the Auburn performance last week, but the feeling is that Alabama may have just enough balance Offensively to pull clear and put a strong win on the board before the SEC Championship Game.

Arizona Wildcats @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: By the time this game kicks off, the situation at the top of the Pac-12 will have cleared up and the Arizona Wildcats (8-3) will know if a place in the Championship Game is still a possibility. Even if it isn't this has been a successful year for the Wildcats and winning this rivalry game will mean they are a Bowl win away from double digits for the season.

That should give the team plenty of motivation as they travel to the Arizona State Sun Devils (3-8) who will be glad that a tough season is about to come to a close.

They did upset the UCLA Bruins a couple of weeks ago and so the Sun Devils need to be afforded some respect, even if that result has been sandwiched by blowout losses to the Utah Utes and Oregon Ducks. There is a feeling that Arizona State could have been looking ahead to this game when being crushed by the Ducks in Week 12, although there is also no question that there is a talent gap between the teams.

Some may feel it is going to be more of the same in Week 13, although these rivalry games have a tendency to throw up a surprise result or two.

It just might be a real challenge for the Arizona State Offensive unit to find the consistency to move the ball against this Wildcats team. The Arizona Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run effectively all season and they may be looking to make Arizona State a little one-dimensional, which will then allow the Wildcats pass rush to flourish.

Jaden Rashada is hoping to return for Arizona State in this last game of the 2023 season, but it will be tough for any Quarter Back if the Sun Devils are not able to run the ball as is the expectation. There have been one or two holes in the Wildcats Secondary which can be exposed, but it is tough with the lack of inconsistency Arizona State have had out of the Quarter Back position, while even tougher when you think the team could be trying to make throws out of third and long positions.

A balanced Offensive unit is always going to be much tougher to defend than a potentially one-dimensional one and the Arizona Wildcats look to have an edge on the other side of the ball. While their own Defensive Line has been stout against the run, the Arizona Offensive Line have been able to open up some big running lanes and now face a Sun Devils Defensive Line that have been really been worn down over the last month.

Jonah Coleman should be able to add plenty of yards on the ground and it should make life very comfortable for Noah Fifita at Quarter Back.

He has really been a revelation for Arizona at the position and Fifita should have time in the pocket to hurt an Arizona State Secondary that has been given up plenty of yards through the air.

With this in mind, it does feel like the Wildcats are going to be able to move the ball much more consistently and efficiently than the Arizona State Sun Devils and that can play out on the scoreboard.

As mentioned, rivalry games have a habit of throwing the form book out of the window, but the Wildcats should be focused and winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball gives them a serious edge.

The underdog has covered in five of the last seven between these schools, but Arizona did snap a five game losing run outright when beating Arizona State last year. That was a victory by 3 points in a game they were favoured to win by 4 points, but in 2023 the edge has to be with the Wildcats to be able to produce a much more impressive result all around.

MY PICKS: Iowa Hawkeyes + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 13.5 Points @ 1.80 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 22.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes - 8.5 Points @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Louisville Cardinals - 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Arizona Wildcats - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Duke Blue Devils - 4.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Colorado Buffaloes + 20.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 27 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Kansas Jayhawks - 6.5 Points @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)

North Carolina Tar Heels - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Week 12: 6-4, + 1.25 Units (10 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)

Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)

Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)

Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

College Football Week 13 Picks 2022 (November 24-26)

The final week of the College Football season is to be played over Thanksgiving Weekend before the attention turns to the Championship Games next week.

There are still some places to be earned in those games and those will be decided in the next couple of games.

It has been a difficult season for the College Football Picks compared with the NFL Picks, but it is the way it goes and you have to roll with the punches.

NC State Wolf Pack @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: The ACC Championship Game has already been set for next week with the Clemson Tigers facing the North Carolina Tar Heels (9-2), but this is rivalry week and the Tar Heels will be looking for a momentum boosting win. They were upset by the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in Week 12, a result that has ended North Carolina's slim hopes of making the College Football PlayOff, but beating their rival and winning the ACC Championship will have fans forgiving their team very quickly.

Focusing on this game will be a challenge with a Championship Game coming up, but the Tar Heels were beaten by the NC State Wolf Pack (7-4) last season and revenge is a big motivational tool in games like this one.

Injuries have really hurt the Wolf Pack as they have lost two in a row and they could be down to their third string Quarter Back for a second game in a row. MJ Morris is perhaps nearer to a return for NC State, but otherwise they will have to give the ball to Ben Finley who finished his last start with 201 passing yards and a single Touchdown and Interception.

There will be opportunities for whoever is able to start at Quarter Back for the Wolf Pack on Friday as there are some holes in the North Carolina Secondary which can be exploited. It helps that the Tar Heels are not able to get a lot of pass rush pressure generated in recent games and that should mean the NC State Offensive Line is able to at least give either Morris or Finley some time to find Receivers down the field.

Running the ball could be an issue for the Wolf Pack though and that does leave the Quarter Back under pressure to make plays from third and long spots. Lacking experience at the position means it can be tough to have a consistent success throwing the ball and that means the Wolf Pack will lean on the very good Defensive unit to try and keep them competitive on the scoreboard.

It has been a real test for teams to try and run the ball against the NC State Defensive Line all season, but in recent games they have really found some pride in clamping down on Running Backs. They will feel they win at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball and that will force North Carolina to become a little one-dimensional with their play-calling, although Drake Maye has been one of the top Quarter Backs in College Football.

Drake Maye has thrown 34 Touchdown passes with 4 Interceptions and he will have noticed the amount of yards that the Wolf Pack have given up through the air in recent games. However, it won't be easy for Maye to replicate that over and over as he is playing behind an Offensive Line which has struggled to give him the time he may have hoped for, and now they have to face a Wolf Pack pass rush which has been very happy when allowed to pin back their ears and get to the Quarter Back.

Shutting down the run has allowed the pass rush to thrive and, despite the yards being allowed, it does also lead to turnovers. That is something that Drake Maye will be concerned about as he looks to help his team bounce back, but I do think he is capable of doing that even if he has to take a few Sacks on the way.

Both teams are looking to bounce back from a loss, but the feeling is that the North Carolina Tar Heels have more Offensive output and that can see them pull clear eventually.

The Wolf Pack are just 7-19 against the spread in their last twenty-six on the road, while they are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight Conference games. The NC State Wolf Pack have also failed to cover in any of the last five in this rivalry and I do think they are lacking bite Offensively, which will see them struggle to keep up with North Carolina on the scoreboard.

Florida Gators @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: The regular season may be coming to an end for these two in-State rivals, but they can focus on this game knowing they have won the six games to become Bowl eligible for when those selections are made early next month.

You have to imagine the Florida State Seminoles (8-3) are very much aware they have lost the last three games in this rivalry, but this has been a big bounce back year after a number of lean campaigns. They are getting to host the game against the Florida Gators (6-5) this year and they are facing a wounded team that were just embarrassed by the Vanderbilt Commodores in a road loss in Week 12.

It is a loss that would have stung, but the Florida Gators have been beaten by the Tennessee Volunteers, LSU Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs amongst the other five defeats suffered in 2022 and those are losses to some of the very best teams in College Football. Two of those could easily be playing in the College Football PlayOff.

While this offers some encouragement, it has still been a disappointing season for the Gators and especially after the defeat last week. They are now facing a Florida State Defensive unit that have been the key to their successes this season and it could be a tough day for the Gators on this side of the ball.

There will be a healthy respect for the fact that the Seminoles are going to be taking on a SEC Offensive Line which has been able to establish the run, but Florida State have been strong on this side of the ball and have been able to clamp down on the run all season. If they can do that here, they will force the Florida Gators to rely on Antony Richardson to make plays with his arm against a Seminoles Secondary which have restricted teams to under 160 passing yards per game this season.

I do think the Gators will have their moments simply because of how well their Offensive Line are playing, but the consistency may be with the Florida State Offensive unit who should be able to find a balance to their play-calling. The Seminoles Offensive Line should be able to open up some holes to help the Running Backs get something going on the ground, and that should mean the play-action can be employed to attack this Secondary.

Jordan Travis has had a solid season at Quarter Back and he has been well protected by his Offensive Line when has dropped back to throw, so I do think Travis and the passing game will be able to operate effectively as well.

No should ignore the size of the spread and the ability of the Florida Gators to score late and earn the backdoor cover.

However, I do think a motivated Florida State Seminoles team will be pushed forward by the home fans and they can end their losing run in the series by winning by double digits. The favourite is 16-5 against the spread in the last twenty-one between these teams, while the Gators are 3-9 against the spread in their last twelve road games and 2-8 against the spread in their last ten non-Conference games.

A balanced Florida State Offensive unit can be more consistent on this side of the ball than the Florida Gators and that can see them cover.

South Carolina Gamecocks @ Clemson Tigers Pick: A big defeat to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish looked to have ended the Clemson Tigers (9-1) hopes of making the College Football PlayOff, but things have changed in the three weeks since that loss. Others have fallen away from the top four Ranking places and the Tigers will have been grateful to rivals the South Carolina Gamecocks (7-4) were upsetting the Tennessee Volunteers in Week 12.

It was by far the best game of the season for Spencer Rattler and the Gamecocks as they crushed the team many felt would have been invited into the PlayOff as long as they didn't suffer a second loss.

That win would have been celebrated by fans of the Clemson Tigers and the feeling is that they can push into the top four as long as they win their remaining two games, which includes the ACC Championship Game. With one of Ohio State or Michigan losing this week, and TCU barely surviving an upset of their own, the Clemson Tigers could be backed into the College Football PlayOff as a team with a single loss and a Conference Championship in the pocket.

After watching what happened last week, you can be certain that the Clemson Tigers will be focused on the South Carolina Gamecocks. However, the Offensive output from the Gamecocks really did come out of left field and was very unexpected so it will be interesting to see whether they can do the same against a strong Clemson Defensive unit.

The run was a huge part of the success that the Gamecocks had last week and I think they will be looking to establish the ground game in this one too. In recent games there have been one or two more gaps to hit against the Clemson Defensive Line, and it will be important for South Carolina to operate in front of the chains to give Spencer Rattler the chance to back up what has been arguably his most impressive College Football game ever.

The Quarter Back has struggled for much of the season, but carved up the Tennessee Secondary in Week 12, although Rattler will know this might be a more significant test. The Clemson pass rush has been a factor in their play, but since the defeat against the Fighting Irish, the Tigers Secondary have really knuckled down against the pass and will feel they can force Spencer Rsttler into uncomfortable positions considering he is only two weeks further forward since struggling against the Florida Gators.

A major reason the Clemson Tigers are perhaps not considered a genuine College Football PlayOff contender outside of others slipping up is the Offensive issues that have continued to plague them since Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne left for the NFL. They have scored 71 points in beating Louisville and Miami since the loss to Notre Dame, but this is not a unit that many would have associated with a Dabo Swinney coached team.

DJ Uiagalelei has not really stepped up at Quarter Back like many would have hoped and he has even been benched this season when struggling, but he may only need to hand the ball off to the Running Backs to keep the Tigers in front of the chains in this one. The Gamecocks have allowed teams to rip off some big gains on the ground in recent games and the Clemson Tigers will be looking to pick up from that and make sure Uiagalelei is in a position to win the game without having to do that on his own.

Establishing the run should open the passing lanes for DJ Uiagalelei and I think he can make some plays against this Secondary, while the Gamecocks pass rush may be slowed down in third and manageable spots. Turnovers- avoiding them more importantly- will be the key for the Tigers and playing a clean game could help them record one of their more impressive wins of the season, especially playing a South Carolina team that just crushed Tennessee.

The Tigers have dominated this rivalry in recent years and they are 4-1 against the spread in the last five in the series.

They will also be facing a South Carolina team who are 3-8-1 against the spread in their last twelve on the road and one that has only produced a 2-8 record against the spread in their last ten games following a win.

I won't deny the spread is a big one, but I think the emotional Gamecocks could struggle to replicate the performance in the win over Tennessee and that will give the Clemson Tigers a chance to pull away for a big home win.

Michigan Wolverines @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: An eight game losing run in The Game had been a cloud over the Jim Harbaugh era as Head Coach of the Michigan Wolverines (11-0), but they snapped that in 2021 and reached the College Football PlayOff for the first time. The win came in Ann Arbor, but this time the Wolverines are travelling to Columbus to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0) with the Big Ten East Division on the line.

The winning team will not only be punching their ticket into the Championship Game next weekend, but they will also be in pole position for one of the top four berths in the PlayOff Rankings. On the other hand, the losing team may struggle to finish above a couple of the other potential Conference Champions and may have their season effectively coming to an end on Thanksgiving Weekend.

It puts a lot of pressure on the players taking to the field and there should be a fierce atmosphere awaiting in the Stadium when they kick off on Saturday.

A major concern for the Wolverines has to be the health of Running Back Blake Corum who had to leave the tougher than expected win over the Illinois Fighting Illini in Week 12. Some of the lacklustre nature of the win may have been down to the players focusing on this game, but the Michigan Wolverines were a touch fortunate to come away with a win and will need to turn the switch if they are going to beat a team as strong as the Buckeyes.

Everything will be decided at the line of scrimmage when the Wolverines have the ball- their Offensive Line have been strong, but Michigan have not tried to run the ball against a Defensive Line as stout as the one Ohio State will be bringing onto their home field. Without Blake Corum it will be even tougher to establish the run, but even with the strong Running Back having a go, I do think the Buckeyes have shown they can clamp down on all up front.

You would then have to question whether Cade McNamara can do enough at Quarter Back to open up the running lanes and I am not sure he has the arm to do that. The entire Wolverines passing Offense has struggled as injuries have piled up and this Ohio State Secondary may be as good as any in College Football.

There will be a similar problem at the line of scrimmage on the other side of the ball as the Buckeyes try and establish the run against a strong Michigan Defensive Line. Throughout this season, the Wolverines have been incredibly tough to run against, but the question is once again whether they have faced any Offensive unit that can be compared with the one they will meet in Week 13.

That weakness of schedule has meant the Wolverines need the win arguably more than the Buckeyes, but I think the difference between these teams will be made at Quarter Back. I have some doubts about McNamara for the road team, but CJ Stroud has been having a Heisman level of season with 35 Touchdown passes thrown and only 4 Interceptions to go with those.

Michigan have played really well Defensively and have some talented players that are likely going to be playing at the next level, but the feeling is that Stroud will make more plays than McNamara at Quarter Back and that will be the reason the Ohio State are able to get the better of their old rivals.

Both are top teams, but this feels like a game that could develop in a similar way to when the Georgia Bulldogs beat the Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC- the latter had bigger wins than Michigan have produced this season, but Ohio State have long looked the best team in the Big Ten and I think the home advantage is also going to be very important to them.

More consistent play from Quarter Back will likely be the reason the Buckeyes are able to earn revenge for the defeat in 2021 and Ohio State are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five at home.

Over the last ten season, Michigan are only 6-11 against the spread as the road underdog and their last three visits to Columbus have ended in defeats by 29, 11 and 29 points. Covering this number won't be easy for the Buckeyes, but I think they may some late plays to produce a double digit victory on their way to the Big Ten Championship Game and the College Football PlayOffs.

MY PICKS: North Carolina Tar Heels - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Florida State Seminoles - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (November 24-26)

The international breaks are usually a real pain in the backside to deal with for fans as well as managers in the top European Leagues, but I will admit the introduction of the new UEFA Nations League was a real success in the first running of the competition.

The competition will come to a conclusion next June, but it did make the three international breaks in September, October and November more interesting than the usual rubbish the Qualifiers serve up. Those Qualifiers are now condensed into a nine month period beginning in March through to November 2019, and I am sure we will all be bored of some of the mismatches that are presented in those games.

That is where the Nations League made things more even and I thought it was a very positive start to what is going to be a feature on the calendar for the years ahead.


In saying all that, I know I am not the only one who is going to be glad to get the Premier League back as we get set to enter the grind of the festive period. This may not be a fun time for the players, but for the fans the football comes thick and fast through to the second week of January and it is a time for Fantasy Players to begin second guessing managers and the rotations they are set to use.

Making Picks from matches can become a little more haphazard at this time of the season with the short turnarounds between games, but everyone watching and playing has to adapt to the situations with vital points to play for.


With the weekend here, below you can see my Picks from the Premier League fixtures to be played from Saturday through to Monday and I also have my top Fantasy player, and Alternative, from those games.


Brighton v Leicester City Pick: Time can heal all wounds but you have to believe the Leicester City players are still not quite back to normal after the tragic events that saw owner Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha lose his life..

Claude Puel has been speaking to the press and making it clear the players have to try and focus on their jobs and making sure they honour the late owner as best they can. To be fair to the players they have actually played far better than could be expected in the 2 games since the helicopter accident that was witnessed by many of them and Leicester City are unfortunate not to have 2 wins from 2 played.

Last time out Leicester City did everything but score against Burnley as they dominated their visitors on an emotional day at the King Power Stadium. That came a week after winning at Cardiff City and I think Leicester City can edge out a Brighton team who have perhaps been a little lucky to have won back to back games at the Amex Stadium.

On pure chances being created Brighton were perhaps fortunate to beat West Ham United and Wolves without conceding a goal and they are going to be challenged by this Leicester City team.

The home form has to be respected for Brighton, but Leicester City had a solid win here last season and they are certainly good enough to win here again. If they continue to create the chances they have in their last 3 games it will be very difficult to beat Leicester City and I am not convinced this Brighton team are good enough at both ends of the field to do that.

Brighton have earned 10 points from a possible 15 at home this season, but Leicester City have shown they can win away games and I will back The Foxes on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw.

Fantasy Star: James Maddison- he is back from an injury and is a key player from set pieces while also a potential penalty taker.

Alternative: Ben Chilwell- potential assists from a defender can't be ignored and Leicester City have had back to back clean sheets too.


Everton v Cardiff City Pick: You just know Neil Warnock would have loved to have had another Premier League fixture between the Brighton win and the international break just to see if his side could build on the momentum that comes from a late winner.

Two weeks later the euphoria would have died down and Cardiff City players will know they are back into the hard work needed to compete at the Premier League level.

This weekend they travel to Everton who have been performing very well at home with numerous chances being created and the goals have not been too far away. The absence of Gylfi Sigurdsson could be a potential blow to Everton with the Icelandic player being a real key under Marco Silva, but Everton do have enough about them to put Cardiff City under some pressure.

Cardiff City simply have not defended as well as they would have liked at this level and that has seen them exposed to some heavy losses already. Those have come against the very best teams in the Division though and Warnock will be reminding his players that Everton are not up there with Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City.

In saying that there is still a definite edge with the home team who have beaten teams like Fulham, Crystal Palace and Brighton at Goodison Park in the last few weeks. All of those clubs are of similar stature to Cardiff City and it has the feeling of being a tough afternoon for the visitors against an Everton team who have scored two or more goals in 3 straight home League games.

If they score two here I would imagine they would have too much for Cardiff City and I do think Everton are capable of doing that. Even without Sigurdsson, who is a doubt having missed the Iceland games during the two week international break, Everton have some quality players in the final third and I will back the home team to come out of the break and enter the festive period with a strong home win behind them.

Fantasy Star: Richarlison- plays in the Number 9 for Everton these days and scored for Brazil in a friendly last week.

Alternative: Gylfi Sigurdsson- a two week break will be important for the Icelandic midfielder and he has been very strong in Marco Silva's system while also a threat from set pieces.


Fulham v Southampton Pick: The media are going to be loving the appointment made by Fulham now they get to hear from Claudio Ranieri every week, but the Italian is not coming into an easy situation. He will have had some time to work with the players in the squad, but many have been away with their international teams and there doesn't look to be a quick fix at Fulham.

At the moment the club are struggling at both ends of the field and Ranieri's first task will be to make sure they are defensively much sounder than they have been.

That does take time though and even if title winning Leicester City team needed around four months to get used to the defensive schemes Ranieri had put together. Fulham simply don't have that time after a poor start to the season and this game on Saturday is a huge one for their chances of avoiding the drop even though we are in November.

Failure to beat Southampton ahead of fixtures against Chelsea, Leicester City and Manchester United could see Fulham lose touch with the teams above them very quickly and there is pressure on them to perform.

The same pressure applies to Mark Hughes and his Southampton team who feel they were robbed of three vital points when drawing 1-1 with Watford two weeks ago. A controversial goal was disallowed on the day that would have seen Southampton go 2-0 ahead, but the performance was enough to give Hughes a little more time to try and get things turned around.

A lack of goals is a real concern for a team who could be without Danny Ings and Shane Long this weekend, but Southampton have actually played better than the results would suggest. They are creating enough chances to win games, but poor composure in the final third has really let them down.

I expect Southampton can create more opportunities when they visit Craven Cottage on Saturday, although my enthusiasm for an away win is reduced significantly by the potential impact a new manager can have for Fulham. This is still a team who look like they have the quality to be operating higher up the Premier League table and Ranieri could get an immediate reaction which would be a worry for Southampton fans and backers.

However I do think the chances being created by Southampton have been ignored by the poor finishing. If they had even taken half of the opportunities they have been creating they would have a few more goals than the 8 they have totalled so far this season and I do think Fulham will present them with chances in this one before Claudio Ranieri can really work on the defensive shape.

Backing Southampton on the Asian Handicap at least returns the stake in the event of a draw and I like them as the slight underdog at Craven Cottage where they beat Fulham in the FA Cup back in January.

Fantasy Star: Charlie Austin- will be leading the line for Southampton and has a decent finish on him. Can make headlines for a differing reason than two weeks ago.

Alternative: Aleksandr Mitrovic- scored for Serbia on international duty and will be Claudio Ranieri's focal point for the Fulham attack. Always a threat from set pieces.


Manchester United v Crystal Palace Pick: A difficult period of fixtures are now behind Manchester United and it is time for the team to start picking up some consistency and putting the wins together if Jose Mourinho is going to be proved right about where the club are going to stand ahead of the opening of the January transfer window.

A couple of weeks ago Mourinho insisted Manchester United can get into the top four of the Premier League, but there is a 7 point gap to trim in the weeks ahead. The fixture list certainly looks a kinder one for Manchester United in the weeks ahead with a number of games to be played against teams in the bottom half of the table, but they have to take advantage of that.

So far Manchester United have been far from convincing and injuries have not been helping the situation. You can't question the heart of the players or the determination to play for the manager having seen Manchester United come from behind to wins games against Newcastle United, Bournemouth and Juventus while also securing a draw with Chelsea in a game they trailed.

The fans will be hoping they can get on the front foot out of the international break with two big games at Old Trafford to come this week before the trip to Southampton.

First up is a Crystal Palace team who have lost 6 of their last 7 games in all competitions and who have been beaten in their last 4 away games. A defensive injury crisis has just reared up at the wrong time for Roy Hodgson although the majority of those players could be back in action next weekend if they cannot be involved at Old Trafford.

It will make it difficult to get a result on a ground where Crystal Palace have lost their last 5 visits and I do think Manchester United will prove too strong for The Eagles this weekend too.

Manchester United have been scoring plenty of goals in recent weeks and that should see them have success against what could be a makeshift backline for Crystal Palace. If Wilfried Zaha cannot make the trip to the North West it will even more difficult for Crystal Palace to offer a counter attacking threat and I think Manchester United can get this week off to a good, positive start with what could be the most comfortable home win of the season so far.

Fantasy Star: Anthony Martial- his 'expected goals' stats suggest this run of strong form won't be sustained, but the Frenchman is well rested and is a potential penalty taker.

Alternative: Victor Lindelof- Manchester United's lack of clean sheets are well documented, but this is the start of a decent stretch of games for them and the Swede has looked more and more assured at the heart of the defence.


Watford v Liverpool Pick: At this stage of the season there really isn't a priority for teams in the Premier League and Champions League as they are trying to progress in both. With that in mind I do think the looming away tie at Paris Saint-Germain is going to be a potential distraction for the Liverpool players as they could potentially be left needing to beat Napoli by a wide margin to progress in the event of a loss in the French capital.

However Jurgen Klopp will know they can't take their eyes off the ball in the Premier League where Manchester City look like a team that are not going to be dropping too many points through the course of the campaign. With 2 points between Liverpool and the leaders, The Reds can't afford to drop points at Vicarage Road if they are going to genuinely compete for the title.

That may sound harsh considering Tottenham Hotspur have lost here already, but both Manchester United and Bournemouth won and Manchester City will be expected to do the same when they visit in a couple of weeks time. It means there are not excuses for Liverpool, but they have not found it easy in this part of Hertfordshire in recent seasons and Watford are playing with a confidence that makes them dangerous.

As much as Liverpool have improved defensively, they have only kept 2 clean sheets in 8 away games in all competitions this season. Both have come in the Premier League, but even in those games Liverpool have had to ride their luck at times and I do think Watford have enough in the final third to really cause some problems for their visitors.

While Liverpool have not been as threatening at the other end of the field as they seemingly were last season, this is still a team who create and score goals on their travels so it is hard to see Watford keeping them out.

Both teams look like they could score here although matching the 3-3 last season is going to be a tough task. I do think there will be chances at both ends though and backing both teams to score once looks a decent enough price considering how things have gone for both Watford and Liverpool at home/away respectively so far and in recent weeks.

Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- might not be hitting the heights of last season, but still scoring plenty of goals and scored both at home and away against Watford last season.

Alternative: Roberto Pereyra- if Watford are going to cause problems for Liverpool this is the player most likely to create or score for The Hornets.


West Ham United v Manchester City Pick: About the only thing that could be seen as a negative for Manchester City approaching the festive period is the number of injuries they have suffered with Kevin De Bruyne basically missing the majority of the campaign. Bernardo Silva's knock picked up on international duty is a blow, but this is a squad that is capable of picking up the slack for missing members and I don't foresee either potential absence from slowing down Pep Guardiola's men.

The comfortable win over Manchester United two weeks ago means Manchester City are clear at the top of the Premier League table but still being pushed by Liverpool and Chelsea. The next six weeks will be seen as a chance to really take control of the title race as Manchester City face both those teams before the FA Cup Third Round in early January.

Focus has been key for the players as they have not really overlooked any opponent they have faced and I expect that to be the case on Saturday.

On their day West Ham United can be a handful as Manchester United and Chelsea have found out at the London Stadium already this season, but this is a team that hasn't matched up well with Manchester City.

Since moving into the London Stadium West Ham United have lost 0-5, 0-4 and 1-4 against Manchester City and the only positive is that they have reduced the margin each time.

Manuel Pellegrini will have some insight of some of the players at his former club, and his new team should be motivated to perform for the manager, but it is a tall task for West Ham United. They look like a team who could be really susceptible to the pace Manchester City have in the forward areas and there is enough quality in the away team even without De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva to find cracks in a defence that has conceded three goals to Burnley and Huddersfield Town in their last couple of League games.

West Ham United have beaten Manchester United and drawn with Chelsea here, but Tottenham Hotspur won twice at the London Stadium in the Premier League and League Cup. While the home team will produce a big effort to try and knock Manchester City out of their stride or to catch them cold out of the international break, I think the mental demons of recent heavy home losses to this opponent won't be easy to shake.

Injuries are hurting the home team too and I don't think they will be able to contain a Manchester City team who could have Leroy Sane, Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, David Silva and Sergio Aguero all involved. I will back the defending Champions to keep their strong run going and I will back them to win by two or more goals on the day.

Fantasy Star: David Silva- with both Kevin De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva out, David Silva's hot form is going to be important to Manchester City. Didn't play here last season, but has scored in his previous three games against West Ham United including on two visits to the London Stadium.

Alternative: Leroy Sane- with Benjamin Mendy ruled out for three months, Leroy Sane's position in the starting eleven could have re-opened and he has a stellar record against 'weaker' Premier League opponents.


Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: The biggest game of the Premier League weekend comes from Wembley Stadium as Tottenham Hotspur host rivals Chelsea with just one point separating these two teams and both chasing leaders Manchester City.

The playing surface at Wembley Stadium is far from in ideal condition, but it didn't play too badly when England hosted Croatia there last Sunday and I don't think the pitch is half as cut up as when the NFL hosted a game there a day before Tottenham Hotspur hosted Manchester City.

Neither team will be able to use a poor playing surface as an excuse and matches between Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea have been very closely contested in recent years. Last season both teams were able to beat the other once, but surprisingly that happened in the away game for both Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur.

Spurs have lost their last 4 games against Chelsea that have been played at Wembley Stadium including last season and they have not played as well at this ground this time around as they did in the 2017/18 campaign. Barcelona, Liverpool and Manchester City have all beaten Tottenham Hotspur here already over the last couple of months and Chelsea's away form has been strong.

However I do think Tottenham Hotspur's come from behind win over PSV Eindhoven will have given the players renewed confidence when playing at Wembley Stadium. They will need to take that into this game and pressure Chelsea, but the defensive injuries have just left the home team looking a little vulnerable at times.

Chelsea are certainly playing with enough belief to expose those issues and I think this will be a decent game of football on Saturday afternoon. The chances Chelsea have been creating makes them dangerous, but they have yet to truly convince defensively and Tottenham Hotspur look as healthy in the final third as they have at any time this season.

5 of the last 6 games between these two London rivals have ended with at least three goals shared out and I think that will be the outcome of this one too.

Fantasy Star: Dele Alli- it hasn't been a great season for Dele Alli thanks to injury, but he is back fit and healthy and has a strong record against Chelsea.

Alternative: Eden Hazard- boring selection but Eden Hazard remains a vital part of the Chelsea attack and could have chances in what is expected to be a game featuring goals.


Bournemouth v Arsenal Pick: The first of the live offerings from the Premier League on Sunday comes from the Vitality Stadium where Bournemouth host Arsenal in a battle between two of the current top six.

It is a real testimony to the work being done by Eddie Howe that Bournemouth are as high as they are in a season where so many had tipped them for relegation. Back to back League defeats has just slowed down some of the momentum that had been built up, but Howe will have had two weeks to get his tactics right for this home League game.

In the last couple of years Bournemouth have proved to be a thorn in the Arsenal side with a draw and a win over them at the Vitality Stadium. Even in the drawn game Bournemouth were leading 3-0 before collapsing and they are certainly playing well enough going forward to challenge an Arsenal defence that has looked vulnerable throughout the season.

Wins can disguise the defensive frailties and that was certainly the case a month ago, but 4 draws in 5 games in all competitions has just underlined the point. Two weeks ago they needed a very late goal to earn a draw with Wolves at the Emirates Stadium, but Arsenal have shown they have plenty of goals in the side and that has seen them produce clinical performances in front of goal.

This weekend they could be without Alexandre Lacazette though and Arsenal may just be short of options in the final third. It is a concern until the January transfer window opens up and I think they look plenty short to win this game at a ground where Manchester United needed a very late goal to produce the victory.

With the problems at the back Bournemouth could certainly take advantage in what promises to be a decent game of football. Both teams will feel they are better going forward than defending and I think an attacking game could develop with at least four goals shared out between the teams.

Arsenal have played 5 away Premier League games this season and four or more goals have been shared out 4 times. There hasn't been as many goals in Bournemouth games at the Vitality Stadium, but the 6 League games have averaged three goals per game and that has included a goalless draw with Southampton.

An early goal could really get things going and backing four or more goals to be shared out at odds against is the selection.

Fantasy Star: Callum Wilson- scored for England in an international friendly and should have some great chances against this Arsenal defence.

Alternative: Alexandre Lacazette- was given a chance to recover from injury over the last two weeks and was in good goal-scoring form for a team that will create chances at the Vitality Stadium.


Wolves v Huddersfield Town Pick: The second live televised game on Sunday afternoon in the Premier League looks to be one that Huddersfield Town have to be targeting if they have serious ambitions of wanting to avoid the drop.

After back to back games where they have produced a positive result, Huddersfield Town should come out of the international break with some momentum. They have also tended to be pretty tough away from home, Manchester City aside, but Huddersfield Town were disappointing in their 3-0 defeat at Watford.

However they have not lost back to back away games in the Premier League since the end of March and that has to give David Wagner some belief his team can earn a result here.

Wolves have been in a poor patch of form but they have continued to play some good football and you would say that only the home loss to Watford was a disappointing all around day for the team. Other defeats at Brighton and at home to Tottenham Hotspur saw Wolves play really well and they were very unfortunate to lose both of those games, while they could, and perhaps should, have won at Arsenal two weeks ago.

It can be difficult for newly promoted teams to get out of a spin once they hit one in the Premier League, but Nuno Espirito Santo has to believe Wolves will win more games than they lose if they can continue to perform like they have been. The injuries to the two wing backs is a blow and losing both would hurt, but Wolves have shown they have enough in the attacking third to create chances and give Huddersfield Town missing two of their defenders a tough time.

The poor home record against Huddersfield Town is a concern for Wolves who have lost 5 of the last 6 against them at Molineux including when they last met two seasons ago. However the exception was a 3-0 win for Wolves in the 2015/16 season so I don't expect a new look team to be overly concerned by the record against Huddersfield Town and I will back the home team to win by a comfortable margin in this one.

Fantasy Star: Matt Doherty- I can't move away from a defender who has a high chance for a clean sheet, but also offers an attacking threat that rivals Marcos Alonso's at Chelsea in recent seasons.

Alternative: Raul Jimenez- if you like strikers who want to assist rather than score, or so it feels, then the Mexican is your man and he does knit things together for Wolves in the final third.


Burnley v Newcastle United Pick: There is much to play for on Monday Night Football when Burnley face Newcastle United.

Both teams are looking for a vital three points to move clear of the relegation battle that is developing and that should mean there is a real intensity to this fixture.

It is hard to really know how this game is going to go- Newcastle United had some real momentum behind them going into the international break as they managed to ride their fortune to some positive results. They will need to be a little better defensively if they are going to avoid the drop, but the same can absolutely be said for Burnley who have been giving up far too many chances for teams this season.

However both attacks have not really flourished as the managers would have hoped and so chances may not be as frequent in this game as they have been in recent Burnley and Newcastle United fixtures.

The Magpies have been really tight away from home with a total of eight goals scored in their 5 away games in the Premier League. Newcastle United have a poor recent record at Turf Moor and they don't score a lot of goals which should give Burnley every chance of earning the win.

However Burnley have been far from consistent this season and they have already failed to beat the likes of Watford and Huddersfield Town here. It has been a real battle for them defensively and Burnley are missing some key players in that unit which can be exposed, even by a limited attacking outfit like Newcastle United.

Going forward Burnley should have some success too and I think the layers are perhaps underestimating the chance of seeing both teams score in this one. As poor as these two teams have been when it comes to the attacking side of things, they are facing two defences who have really been struggling and that includes a Newcastle United team who have 2 clean sheets in their last 3 away games.

Both of those games at Crystal Palace and Southampton saw the home team miss some absolute sitters and Burnley have scored in 3 of their 5 home games this season in the Premier League.

I think both of these teams should have chances in this one and the 1-1 final score is a real player. I will be looking for both teams to score here against defences who have given up big chances to opponents and that looks an intriguing price.

Fantasy Star: Joe Hart- urgh, this is a tough game to pick someone from because it really could be anyone and no one stands out. However Burnley have been struggling defensively and Joe Hart will have to be a key performer to secure a result here.

Alternative: Solomon Rondon- two quality goals two weeks ago will have given Rondon confidence and Burnley have been vulnerable at the back while missing key centre halves.

MY PICKS: Leicester City 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-Liverpool Both Teams to Score @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Arsenal Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley-Newcastle United Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

November Update: 14-22, - 16.86 Units (72 Units Staked, - 23.42% Yield)