NFL Week 12 Picks 2024 (Thursday 21st November-Monday 25th November)

There are still some teams waiting to head into their Bye Week, but Thanksgiving Weekend is usually a time when most feel the Playoffs really come looming over the horizon.

It is the same feeling in 2024 with the holidays a few days away and teams are beginning to separate out in both Conferences.

Schedule makers for the NFL have been encouraged to load the back end of the schedules with a lot of Divisional games and that is certainly the case in Week 12, beginning with the AFC North game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. There are plenty of others to come, including in the NFC East and North and in the AFC West and we will begin to see the Wild Card Race take shape too.

After a strong run for the NFL Picks, Week 11 meant back to back losing weeks, although not nearly as poorly as the Week 10 results.

Bouncing back has to be the ambition in Week 12 ahead of the Thanksgiving Day games, and to make sure the numbers are moving back in a positive direction for the overall season.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders Pick: 2024 has proven to be a productive season for the Washington Commanders (7-4) and they are certainly going to be challenging for a Playoff spot. However, it should be noted that they have been a team that have yet to really prove themselves against one of the top teams in the NFL after going down to a defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football last time out.

That has dropped the Commanders behind the Eagles in the NFC East, but the three games to be played before Washington meet their rivals again gives the team an opportunity to bounce back. It will have felt like a mini-Bye for the Commanders and the players, which should offer an opportunity for some to feel a little healthier, while a full Bye is coming up shortly that will really put the Commanders in a position to focus towards the end of the regular season.

If the Coaching staff were looking at the schedule back in August, this would have looked another challenging Divisional game for Washington, but it has been a season of disappointment for the Dallas Cowboys (3-7). There is an inevitability to big changes being made in the off-season with Head Coach Mike McCarthy almost certainly playing out his contract over the next several weeks.

He has not been helped by the injury picked up by Quarter Back Dak Prescott, although that cannot be an excuse with the Cowboys struggling before he went down. Cooper Rush proved himself to be a capable backup when playing in that role before, but he has not been able to turn the tide on the season and the Cowboys will be heading out on the road having been blown out at home on Monday Night Football by the Houston Texans.

A short week and with a number of banged up players really does not bode well for the Cowboys, who are also playing on Thanksgiving Day as is tradition in a few days time.

The key for the Cowboys will be to keep this game competitive and try and lean on the Offensive Line to open up some running lanes for the team. Unfortunately the Line is banged up and the Running Backs used have not really lived up to their reputation, which may mean it is far from easy for Dallas to have success on the ground like others have managed against the Washington Defensive Line.

Playing closer to the Line of Scrimmage and daring Cooper Rush to beat them with his arm will be the plan for Head Coach Dan Quinn, who earned the Washington top Coaching role thanks to his performance as the Cowboys Defensive Co-Ordinator in recent years. Dan Quinn will be well aware of the strengths and weaknesses of Quarter Back Cooper Rush, as well as a number of the other players on the Dallas roster and that should certainly mean the Commanders are well prepared.

Playing against this Dallas Defensive unit should also help Jayden Daniels and the Commanders Offensive unit get back on track after a couple of inconsistent efforts against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles. The Quarter Back has been a little banged up, which has perhaps lessened his enthusiasm for running the ball, but having a bit more time to prepare should help Daniels.

He also has both Running Backs available after Brian Robinson Jr returned against the Eagles and the Commanders Offensive Line could get back on track by opening up rushing lanes.

Jayden Daniels has not been at his best since taking a hard shot to the ribs, but it will help so much if he is playing in front of the chains as expected in this game. This makes completions that much easier to come by and the Cowboys have been worn down in games with the team struggling to extend drives and having the Defensive players out on the field for far too long.

In recent seasons Dallas have had the better of this Divisional rival, but the roles look reversed now and Dan Quinn is not expected to show much mercy if his Washington team are in control. Instead he may want his team to just show what the Cowboys have been missing and the Commanders may end up pulling away to become the latest team to crush Dallas.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Pick: It looked like the Chicago Bears (4-6) were going to snap their three game losing run and get the 2024 season back on track when driving down the field and lining up for the game-winning Field Goal against the Green Bay Packers. However, it sums up the recent era in Chicago that the Field Goal was blocked and the Bears fell to a fourth defeat in a row, a run that started with the ridiculous Hail Mary given up to the Washington Commanders.

Head Coach Matt Eberflus has heard the disappointment coming out of the stands and his time in charge in Chicago is almost certainly coming to a close.

He is trying to remain focused, but that was a hard defeat to take in Week 11 and the Chicago Bears will do well to recover from the setback. To make matters tougher, they are facing another NFC North rival in the Minnesota Vikings (8-2) who have won three in a row and very much looking like a team that will continue to push the Detroit Lions and exceed all pre-season expectations.

So many believed this would be a transitional season for the Vikings with Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, but it has been a career best year for a player who has bounced around the NFL.

Interceptions have been a little troubling for Sam Darnold during this three game winning run, and he would certainly be given much more help if the Offensive Line can go back to helping the Vikings run the ball as effectively as they had been earlier in the season. There is an opportunity to get back on track against this Bears Defensive Line, which has been the weakness on this side of the ball, and keeping Darnold in third and manageable would make a huge difference for the Quarter Back.

The Bears have not really been generating a fierce pass rush so being in strong positions on the field should allow Sam Darnold to have the time to target some of his big time playmakers down the field. The Chicago Secondary deserves plenty of respect, but shutting down the likes of Justin Jefferson completely is always a tough challenge and the Vikings should have a decent day when they have the ball in hand.

Steering clear of turnovers is important for Minnesota, but doing so will give the Defensive unit every chance of rattling Caleb Williams.

The rookie Quarter Back had a decent game against the Green Bay Packers, but this Minnesota Defense is going to offer plenty of unfamiliar looks which can confuse even those players with a lot of experience behind them. Caleb Williams has not seen a Brian Flores Defensive unit before and he is still operating behind an Offensive Line that has struggled when it comes to pass protection.

Running the ball against the Vikings is not going to be easily achieved and that means Caleb Williams needs time for routes to develop down the field. It will give Brian Flores the opportunity to dial up some fierce pass rushes and those are likely to get home, which in turn could lead to a couple of errant throws from Williams.

Picking those off would really give Minnesota the edge and they might take advantage of the scheduling spot.

Chicago are playing in the early kick off on Thanksgiving Day and it could be tough for the players to recover before that game at the Detroit Lions after losing in the manner they did against the Green Bay Packers. With the Vikings going about their business without much fanfare, Minnesota may make the big Defensive plays to ensure they can win and cover and continue their march towards the Playoffs with a solid win at Soldier Field.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The Buffalo Bills look like a genuine contender to win the Super Bowl, but the rest of the AFC East have been a big disappointment this season.

There were some serious expectations with the New York Jets and the same applies for the Miami Dolphins (4-6), although injuries have been a big factor for the latter and the record they currently hold. Tua Tagovailoa is back at Quarter Back and that has sparked the Dolphins to back to back wins, which have kept them interested in making a run to the post-season as long as they can maintain momentum.

They may only be slightly behind Miami in terms of the record, but that path looks much tougher for the New England Patriots (3-7) who would have been expecting some inconsistencies with a rookie Quarter Back likely taking over from veteran Jacoby Brissett at some point.

Drake Maye has not played badly at all since coming into the lineup, but the Patriots have to expect some ups and downs. They have won two of their last four games, but one or two poor throws have led to Interceptions and that is part and parcel of having a rookie come into what was expected to be a team that struggles again.

Playing against Miami has been tough for the Patriots in recent years after Tom Brady departed, but even with the future Hall of Fame player at Quarter Back, visits to South Florida have been challenging. This will be a tough test for Drake Maye, but he may be able to lean on the Offensive Line to at least help establish the run and put him in the best position to have some success.

Being in front of the chains will give Drake Maye a real opportunity to attack this Dolphins Secondary, although the Quarter Back will have to be aware of the tendencies the Defensive Backs have in turning the ball over.

Running the ball will also give Maye a bit more time to survey the field before making his throws and the Patriots may have some success moving the ball, which could also mean a potential upset is on the cards.

That looks unlikely on the last couple of outings from the Miami Offensive unit, but Tua Tagovailoa will have to respect the levels being produced by the Patriots. The Miami Offensive Line have not been as consistent in helping the team run the ball in recent games as they would have hoped and the Dolphins will have some issues trying to establish the ground game against New England.

If the Dolphins are not able to find much consistency on the ground, Tua Tagovailoa may have a slightly more difficult afternoon throwing the ball than many would expect. The record is not the best, but the Patriots have been competitive on the Defensive side of the ball and recent games have seen the Secondary play well with help from the pass rush up front.

Slowing down the Miami passing game is never going to be easy, but forcing the Quarter Back to play out of third and long will help New England. They can certainly stall a few drives and that may give the Patriots an opportunity to keep this Divisional game competitive and make use of the points being given to them.

Miami should win, but covering becomes harder when you think they have a Thanksgiving Day date with the Green Bay Packers in just four days time. They may not have their very best effort for the Patriots, but instead look to do just enough to win and New England are certainly playing well enough Defensively to avoid any blowout defeat here.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: They snapped an eight game losing run to the Las Vegas Raiders (2-8) earlier this season and the Denver Broncos (6-5) will be looking to back up their very strong victory in Week 11 against the Atlanta Falcons. There is still a hope that the Broncos will surprisingly earn a spot in the Playoffs in Sean Payton's second season as Head Coach in Denver and they are certainly facing the Raiders at a good time.

The loss in Miami last time out means Las Vegas have lost six in a row and the team have been struggling with injury and players being out of form.

While they will be motivated in trying to avoid a sweep at the hands of a Divisional rival, this is not an ideal spot for the Raiders who will be playing on Black Friday at the home of the Kansas City Chiefs. Head Coach Antonio Pierce has to be feeling some pressure during this losing run, especially with new voices like Tom Brady likely to be having an input in future decisions made by the franchise.

Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell have both had playing time at Quarter Back, but neither has really played well enough for the Raiders and this is a team that is likely going to be looking for a new player to come in when the NFL Draft comes around. Neither has been helped by the issues that the Raiders have had when it comes to running the ball and they are not expected to find much room up front against this Denver Defensive Line.

Struggles to run the ball has put a lot of pressure on the Raiders Offensive Line and they have not offered a lot of protection or time for the Quarter Back. This is likely going to be the case against the Denver pass rush and the pressure up front will make it tough to throw the ball against the Broncos Secondary.

Brock Bowers is likely going to step up and offer Gardner Minshew someone to target, but the Quarter Back has been inconsistent and there is every chance he makes one or two poor decisions that ultimately offers Denver some extra possessions.

Unlike the Raiders, the Denver Broncos should be able to have some success on the ground and that is likely going to give Bo Nix an opportunity to build on recent solid performances in his rookie season.

Sean Payton's Offensive mind has certainly helped Bo Nix and he should be able to expose some of the issues the Raiders have had in the Secondary. Avoiding mistakes is one of the big tests for any rookie Quarter Back and in recent games Nix has been able to do that very effectively.

He should be able to make enough plays to keep the chains moving and this could lead to another solid win for the Broncos against this Divisional rival. The spread looks considerable on the road, but Las Vegas look like a team that is struggling to compete and the focus may soon shift to trying to put their best foot forward when facing the Kansas City Chiefs in a few days time.

Denver's Defensive unit can make a couple of big plays for the team to swing things in their favour and the Broncos may just keep their Playoff hopes on track with a solid victory on the road here.

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Revenge will be on the minds of the Green Bay Packers (7-3) after narrowly being beaten by the San Francisco 49ers (5-5) in the NFL Playoffs at the end of the 2023 season. They looked to be in control of that game before the late defeat, but that game was played at the home of San Francisco and this time Green Bay have home advantage.

A late blocked Field Goal helped the Packers continue their dominance of NFC North rivals Chicago Bears, but they are still looking up at the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings despite a healthy seven wins on the board. Winning the Division will be challenging considering what we have seen from the Lions, but the Green Bay Packers are firmly on the march towards a post-season spot.

They can really begin to knock off some of their rivals if Green Bay are able to get the better of the 49ers, especially after San Francisco dropped back to 0.500 after a surprising home loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

Adding to the disappointment during the week was the news that Nick Bosa has been ruled out for this Week 12 game having finished the game last week watching on from the sidelines. Even worse, San Francisco have announced that starting Quarter Back Brock Purdy will be missing on Sunday and that means Brandon Allen will be getting the call.

There is no doubting that Allen will be familiar with the San Francisco system having been the third-string backup for the 49ers last season. However, the Quarter Back has not started a game in the NFL since 2021, while a 2-7 record as a starter is not exactly going to inspire a lot of confidence.

Brandon Allen does benefit from playing with Christian McCaffrey and this San Francisco Offensive Line and there is every chance that the 49ers will at least establish the run and keep their backup Quarter Back in front of the chains. Earlier in the season there were signs that the Packers would be better at dealing with the run, but they are still giving up healthy yardage on the ground and McCaffrey should have a decent game.

Of course, the Packers may not have as much respect for the passing game as they would if Brock Purdy was playing behind Center. It may mean creeping up to the Line of Scrimmage to make a real effort to stop the run and force Brandon Allen to beat them through the air, although San Francisco are likely to counter with some eye candy distractions behind the Offensive Line to see if they can establish the run in other ways.

The Quarter Back is not expected to hold onto the ball for too long and there are some solid playmakers around him, which should give the 49ers a chance to keep the chains moving. Staying with the Packers is key though as no one would really want to put the burden of play on the shoulders of Brandon Allen.

And the 49ers do have a Defensive unit that can at least step up and help their backup Quarter Back by putting the clamps down on the powerful Green Bay Offense run by Jordan Love.

Much of the Packers successes have come behind the Offensive Line and having Josh Jacobs churn out some big yards on the ground, although stopping the run has been something that the 49ers have long prided themselves on. It is strength versus strength along the Line of Scrimmage in this Week 12 game, but Green Bay will not shy away from handing the ball off and making sure they are playing out of third and manageable situations at the very least.

In their Playoff meeting, the Packers did have success with Aaron Jones when it came to running the ball so they have to believe that Josh Jacobs can do the same.

The Offensive Line have enjoyed run blocking, but have also been effective at giving Jordan Love time to make his plays down the field. Without Nick Bosa, San Francisco may not be able to rattle the Quarter Back and the improving play of the Secondary may be exploited if there is time to make the throws against them.

Green Bay are still hoping that one or two players can really come out of the pack in the Receiving corps and really offer Jordan Love a consistent threat through the remainder of the regular season and Playoffs. Christian Watson was back in the thick of things last week, but has to show more consistency if he is going to become the main threat in the passing game, while Jordan Love will be keen to just clear up some of his own Interceptions.

Doing that should give Jordan Love an opportunity to get one over on the San Francisco 49ers, especially with Brandon Allen at Quarter Back for the road team. Some teams have been able to step up and rally around their backup, but the Packers look strong enough Offensively to force Allen to have to play some big plays and that could see things unravel.

The Packers do play on Thanksgiving Day, which could be a potential distraction in some circumstances- however, there has been a real rivalry with the 49ers in recent season with plenty of Playoff games between the teams and that should mean the home team are focused and looking for a big win that could serve as an important tie-breaker when the Wild Card positions are confirmed later this season.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The Arizona Cardinals (6-4) may have enjoyed their Bye Week as they return in Week 12 with their lead in the NFC West still in place. They can thank rivals Seattle Seahawks (5-5) for that having upset the San Francisco 49ers to drop the three teams behind the Cardinals to the same record.

Where the Arizona Cardinals have a real edge over their rivals within the NFC West is that they are 2-0 in Divisional games, while both Seattle and San Francisco have losing records in those games. The Los Angeles Rams are 2-1, but a win here for the Arizona Cardinals could be a huge step towards the post-season in what has been a surprising year for the team.

Four straight wins have given the team the lead in the NFC West, but also bolstered confidence and there is a lot to like about this Arizona team.

Patience with Head Coach Jonathan Gannon has been key after the 4-13 record last season, but even more important has been the return to full health of Quarter Back Kyler Murray. He is on course for his most starts in a single season since 2021 and Murray would have been under some pressure at the start of the 2024 season having compiled a 6-13 record in his previous nineteen starts.

Kyler Murray has matched those wins over the previous two seasons through just ten games in 2024 and the Offensive unit are rolling.

Running the ball with someone like Murray at Quarter Back will always be an important part of the game plan and James Connor deserves a lot of respect for the level he has been producing in Arizona. The Seahawks did play the run pretty well against San Francisco last week, but overall it has been a struggle for them and the dual-threat from Kyler Murray has been complemented by the power of Connor at Running Back.

Any time a team can play out of third and manageable situations is going to be a huge boost and the Cardinals have been doing that very often during their four game winning run. Kyler Murray has been given some serious weapons in the passing game, which he has used very effectively thanks to the play-action opening things up down the field.

Everything begins from the run for the Arizona Cardinals, but that has been an issue for the Seattle Seahawks in recent games. They are not being helped by injuries on the Offensive Line and with a sudden retirement of Connor Williams at Center, but the Seahawks are facing an Arizona Defensive Line that is not always the best at stopping the run.

Helping the Cardinals is the fact that they are playing with a scoreboard lead and so teams have to step back and throw the ball, although Geno Smith has shown he can produce under pressure when leading the Seahawks to a win last week at San Francisco. The Quarter Back is expected to have some success with the quality of Receivers that he is targeting, but Smith will just have to look out for the players stepping in front of passes.

While the Cardinals have only picked off five passes this season, it should be noted that they have only allowed eleven Touchdown passes so this is going to be a significant test for Seattle out of an upset. Being at home is certainly going to help, but the team are just 2-4 here this season and there is every chance that the Arizona Cardinals can come out of their Bye Week and secure an important victory.

Both teams will have some successes, but the balance of the Arizona Offensive unit may just help them come out on top and maintain their unbeaten record within the NFC West. With the 49ers playing a tough game on the road and the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Philadelphia Eagles, this could be a big week for the Cardinals and they may just come out on top in a back and forth game.

MY PICKS: Washington Commanders - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Minnesota Vikings - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

New England Patriots + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Arizona Cardinals - 1 Point @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (November 23-25)

The last international break of the 2019 calendar year has come and gone and we have been given the twenty nations that will definitely be playing at the next European Championships which begin in June 2020.

Before this month comes to a close the draw for the Finals will be made and that will be of huge interest to fans of England and Wales. Before that the Play Off draw is also made as the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland look to make the most of the reprieves they have been given after failing to finish in the top two of their respective Qualifying Groups.


Having a major international tournament coming up in the summer is obviously going to be exciting, but that is for another day for most players. The focus now will be getting ready to enter what is always a very hectic part of the English Football calendar as most Premier League teams will be ready to play nine games in the top flight before the FA Cup Third Round over the first weekend of January.

During that time the top teams will have two more European Champions League/Europa League Group games to negotiate as well as the Quarter Final of the League Cup. Watch out for rotations and injuries becoming a major factor at this time of the season with teams looking to make sure they don't lose any momentum in a period where matches are played every few days.

That is difficult for the managers to negotiate and also for all the Fantasy Football players that will be looking to make some hay during this time of the season. I would definitely keep an eye on deadlines for transfers with limited time between games to pick up information and it is going to be a tough time for all.


In this thread you will see my Picks from the latest round of fixtures and I will then move onto GW13 and my Fantasy thoughts out of the international break.


West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Things can change very quickly in football and proof of that came in North London this past week as Jose Mourinho takes over from Mauricio Pochettino as manager of Tottenham Hotspur.

Within the space of twelve hours Tottenham Hotspur made the decisions that have taken over all of the headlines in England. Whether this is the correct decision will be seen in the months and years ahead, but Tottenham Hotspur have an underachieving squad that should quickly pick up under new guidance.

A toxic environment seems to have been partly the reason for Pochettino to be moved on months after reaching the Champions League Final. We saw at Manchester United last December that teams can quickly turn their form around when the manager has been replaced and I think we could see that with Tottenham Hotspur too.

Winning in East London won't be easy, but West Ham United have been in miserable form and this looks as good an opportunity for Tottenham Hotspur to snap their poor away run as they could have hoped for. Spurs have won on their last three visits to the London Stadium and this is a team who have the goals within the squad to hurt a West Ham United team who are defending poorly.

West Ham United might feel they can create chances of their own considering the performances of Tottenham Hotspur away from home, but I think the new voice is going to get off to a positive start.

Jose Mourinho suffered an embarrassing loss when he took Manchester United to the London Stadium last season, but I think this squad is capable of turning around their form very quickly. The price has shrunk for an away win as soon as the news came out about the Mauricio Pochettino sacking, but I think Tottenham Hotspur can be backed.

At odds against you can back Spurs to win a game featuring at least two goals and I think that is a good price considering I feel the away team will need at least two goals to win here.


Arsenal v Southampton Pick: On the face of things you can understand why Arsenal are such favourites to beat Southampton on Saturday, but it is not easy to trust the home team on their current form.

No wins in 5 games in all competitions have just increased the pressure on Unai Emery as manager of the club, while Arsenal have found it difficult to blow teams away even at home.

Back to back teams have visited the Emirates Stadium and come away with a point so there will be some belief in the Southampton squad. However they have also been having some difficulties in finding positive results despite being a competitive team outside of the stunning 0-9 defeat to Leicester City.

Ralph Hasenhuttl is another manager feeling the pressure at the moment, but his team have been more competitive away from home. They had the lead at Manchester City in the Premier League earlier this month and have scored in defeats to Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Chelsea in the League this season.

The Saints can definitely play their part here, but Arsenal should have too much for them when it is all said and done. I can't really back Arsenal to cover the Asian Handicap on their current form, but they can win a game featuring two or more goals and that is the selection here.


Bournemouth v Wolves Pick: If there is one team in the Premier League I have yet to really get to grips with it is Wolves and that is largely down to the fact that the team doesn't score a lot of goals, but also doesn't concede a lot either.

For the majority of the season that has meant me moving past their games even though Wolves secured a winner when earning a draw at Arsenal earlier this month.

This is a difficult looking game out of the international break, although I do think Bournemouth have been dented by the injury suffered by Josh King. A team who have not been as free-flowing in the final third as in recent years can ill-afford another attacking absentee, but Bournemouth have to be respected for the strength they have shown defensively this season.

It makes this a tough game to really have a good feel for and I think there are better options out there.


Brighton v Leicester City Pick: I had little doubt that Brendan Rodgers could guide Leicester City to the best of the rest position outside of the top six at the beginning of the season, but even I have to be surprised by how much they have pushed on. This was a team I felt were a dark horse for a top four spot when you think of the issues the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea had coming into the season, but Leicester City have been stronger than anyone could have really believed.

They are big favourites to keep their positive run going when travelling to Brighton on Saturday and I am sure there will be plenty ready to back The Foxes here.

However I am a little cautious because Brighton have been very good at home under Graham Potter. They won't be afraid to attack Leicester City and can also hurt them on the counter attack too and I think this could be a close match.

Aaron Connelly's injury is a blow for the home team, but Leicester City are a team grabbing the headlines which makes them plenty short in the market. They may well win here and keep the momentum going, but I have to give this one a watching brief.


Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: Over the next few weeks Liverpool could really take a firm grip on the Premier League title race as they manage a good looking fixture list at a time when Manchester City have to play the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal.

Jurgen Klopp doesn't need to worry about what other clubs are doing if his Liverpool team keep winning and they should be good enough to see off a Crystal Palace team who have struggled in recent weeks.

Those struggles have come at a time when Crystal Palace have faced a number of teams inside the top six and the back to back losses to Manchester City and Leicester City at home shows the kind of ceiling this team have.

If Wilfried Zaha is not fit to play then it makes things all the more difficult for Crystal Palace and that is even accounting for the fact that Mohamed Salah may not be available.

At this stage of the season I do think we already have a clear favourite for the Premier League title and Liverpool have continued to find big results through difficult times. They have goals in the side and Crystal Palace struggle in the final third which should mean a sixth straight win for The Reds at Selhurst Park.

Backing Liverpool to cover the Asian Handicap is difficult because this is a team who seem to do just enough to secure the points on their travels. Only one of their five away Premier League wins have come by more than a single goal margin and that is going to be needed to win on the Asian Handicap.

Instead backing Liverpool to win a game featuring two or more goals looks the best angle in this Premier League game.


Everton v Norwich City Pick: Earlier this month I mentioned that Brighton looked very short to beat Norwich City in the Premier League, but they were comfortable winners and it seems more and more likely that the latter are simply not up to the standards of the Premier League.

That could change with some huge investment in January, but Norwich City have to make sure they are still in touch with the teams above them at that time.

We have the busy festive period coming up first and Norwich City have looked short of the quality needed at both ends of the field. They have particularly struggled away from home and all 5 losses have come by at least two goal margins.

Everton can match those results as they have proven to be a much better team at home than on their travels. The win at Southampton should be a boost in confidence the players might need and Everton should have the majority of the play in this one.

I do sometimes worry about the ability of a team like Everton to break down a side they should be beating. They also don't have the best record against Norwich City in recent years, but I can't ignore how poorly Norwich City have been defending and I think that shows up here.

Backing Everton to win and cover the Asian Handicap is my pick.


Watford v Burnley Pick: A win over Norwich City will have given Watford Football Club a big lift, but the international break could not have come at a worse time.

They are favoured to beat Burnley this weekend, but I don't really want to oppose Sean Dyche's men who have made it a habit to surprise in fixtures like this one.

Both teams scoring would not be a big surprise, but the fixture is one that will turn on the first goal and I am not prepared to guess which may that goes. I can make a case for all three results in this fixture, although with a gun to my head I would likely pick a 1-1 draw.

Luckily for me I am not being forced to put any units down on this one and so I will move onto the late Saturday kick off.


Manchester City v Chelsea Pick: The headlines this Premier League weekend might be all about the return of Jose Mourinho, but Manchester City versus Chelsea is the big game in this round of fixtures.

Manchester City are looking to bounce back from the 3-1 loss at Anfield which leaves them 9 points off the leaders, but this is a club who have responded to setbacks under Pep Guardiola. The manager will know his team need a long winning run to see if they can at least pressurise Liverpool into mistakes and Manchester City have been very strong at home.

Wolves won here though and Chelsea won't be intimidated by the task in hand with their young players seemingly thriving when playing away from home. The Blues have won 7 away games in a row including twice in the Champions League and Frank Lampard won't want to shift too far from his principles to make sure Chelsea threaten Manchester City way more than they did under Antonio Conte or Maurizio Sarri.

Last season Chelsea were hammered 6-0 here, but Lampard's team have been scoring goals for fun away from Stamford Bridge.

They will feel they can hurt a Manchester City who have looked vulnerable at the back ever since Aymeric Laporte went down with an injury and they have to be respected. However I think it is difficult to ignore the fact that Chelsea have lost twice to Manchester United, once to Liverpool and drawn with Leicester City so far this season.

Even 5th placed Sheffield United earned a draw with Chelsea and I do think Frank Lampard's team have struggled against the top teams. Chelsea did win at Ajax, but The Blues were 1-4 down at home before their hosts were reduced to nine men and I think Manchester City will prove to be too strong on the day.

Backing Manchester City to win the game and cover the Handicap in a high-scoring game looks to be the play here.


Sheffield United v Manchester United Pick: There is one Premier League game being played on Super Sunday this week and it looks an intriguing one between Sheffield United and Manchester United.

On the face of things you would likely expect a low-scoring, tough to read match and in all honesty Sheffield United look a very big price to win the game when you think of how they have played this season.

Sheffield United have beaten Arsenal here already, while Liverpool needed some luck to win thanks to a mistake from Dean Henderson. The goalkeeper has largely been effective for Sheffield United though and his absence this weekend is a blow for Chris Wilder who has a preferred eleven in his thoughts.

That absence could make Sheffield United a little more vulnerable to the Manchester United attack which has come to life in recent games. After struggling for goals, the return of Anthony Martial has just sparked things for Manchester United and they have now scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions.

Chances are being created too and I do think the front three of Martial, Marcus Rashford and Daniel James can cause problems here.

In saying that I also think Sheffield United will be effective going forward thanks to the style employed by Chris Wilder. They don't score a lot of goals, but Sheffield United do create chances too and I think the layers might be underestimating the chance of seeing at least three goals shared out this Sunday.

Goals might not have been flowing at Bramall Lane, but I think that could potentially change if teams continue to create chances at both ends like we have seen. Better finishing will see different results from what we have seen so far this season and I think that could potentially begin this weekend.

At odds against backing at least three goals to be shared out looks to be the play.


Aston Villa v Newcastle United Pick: The final match of the Premier League weekend comes from Villa Park as Aston Villa host Newcastle United in a big game for both clubs.

Dean Smith and Steve Bruce will recognise the importance of picking up points from fixtures like this one for Aston Villa and Newcastle United respectively in the fight to avoid the drop.

Both teams were playing well enough prior to the international break to think this could be a good game of football for the neutrals to enjoy. Aston Villa have proven to be strong at home, but Newcastle United have just found an identity to produce goals and I can see the two teams scoring in this one.

Much of that is down to Aston Villa being a solid attacking team, but one that has allowed too many chances throughout the course of the season. It should mean Newcastle United can be in a position to work some good openings in this match, but holding out against Aston Villa won't be easy for a team who have lost 66% of their away games played this season.

Aston Villa look like a team that will be involved in some higher scoring games throughout the season with their current approach. However they will believe they can win plenty of games if they perform as they have been and I give them a narrow edge in this one.

My bigger feeling is that this game will feature at least three goals shared out though and that is the approach I am going to have to this fixture. At close to odds against quotes I believe backing goals is the best way forward in this fixture.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Arsenal & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.70 Coral (2 Units)
Everton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sheffield United-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Unit)
Aston Villa-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

November 2019/20: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
October 2019/20: 16-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 13

The last international break of the 2019 calendar year is now behind us and there are plenty of Fantasy Football decisions to be made in the coming days and weeks.

Remember this is the time of the year when games come thick and fast which means multiple GameWeeks are also scheduled to be played. It does mean you should be looking to make some long-term decisions (those that will take you through until the change of the calendar year), while I would also make sure you are happy with your bench option at a time when rotations are going to be made by the managers.

I picked up 68 points in GameWeek 12 which is a decent enough return and above the average of the week. My Captain also put in a good effort too, but you can read the changes I have been forced to make to my team in GW13 when you read further below.

Before that I have a few thoughts about teams that seem to be in vogue at the moment and those that might be ready to have us join a potential bandwagon.

Leicester City- fantasy players have been falling over themselves to bring in Leicester City squad members into their teams thanks to a 4 game winning run.

Many of their assets have increased in value and I don't think you can be put off by what looks a generous fixture list over the next four GWs.

I have two players, but I still believe it is not worth adding a third. Jamie Vardy is in great form, but I continue to look past him as some of the underlying stats are simply not making great reading. He is someone who can over-perform expectations, but I do think all the value is gone and going with a midfielder and a defender is good enough.

James Maddison is still the midfielder I would target if I was playing from scratch, although I am happy enough with Youri Tielemans.

Arsenal- Unai Emery's uncertain position as manager does make it hard to really trust Arsenal assets, but I do think this is a good time for them to make some hay.

The fixture list looks very kind in the weeks ahead and I really like Alexandre Lacazette at a price which is below Roberto Firmino and Jamie Vardy's in the FPL game. He is usually the main centre forward when getting a start for Arsenal and the shot count underlines that.

Injuries do leave him more open to rotation which is a concern, but I think Lacazette will enjoy games against Southampton, Norwich City, Brighton and West Ham United.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is another choice, but he is largely played out on the left when Lacazette plays, while I would have a second look at Nicolas Pepe too.

Tottenham Hotspur- I doubt this has gotten past anyone, but Jose Mourinho is back in the Premier League and takes over a Tottenham Hotspur team who have been underperforming to say the least.

It is going to be interesting to see how Tottenham Hotspur line up under Mourinho, but I would expect to see an improvement defensively so those assets could be worth bringing back.

Harry Kane had been playing deeper than we have become accustomed to under Mauricio Pochettino, but he is another I fully expect to be back in a more standard Number 9 spot and this is a team I am keeping a close eye on. After the Manchester United game in early December I think I will be using some Spurs players with a more manageable fixture list to come.

Crystal Palace- I know they have been in poor form, but don't ignore the fixture list Crystal Palace have been involved in.

They finish up their run of matches against top six clubs this weekend and this is a club that looks to have a generous run until January after that.

Jordan Ayew, Wilfried Zaha and a couple of defenders have to be on the potential shortlist to bring into the squad.

My GameWeek 13 Team

Injuries have just been getting the better of my Fantasy team in recent weeks and that forced me into making the change from Ederson to David De Gea two weeks ago.

The international break wasn't very kind to my team with doubts about Andrew Robertson and both Callum Hudson-Odoi and Josh King also suffering.

I really don't want to take a hit right now and so I have to try and manage what transfers I can make and that means going into GW13 with a potential of being short of a starting XI.

There had to be at least one transfer used this week to try and avoid that fate, but I have a clear plan in place and that means I am not going to be too rush right now.

David De Gea- Manchester United seemingly concede whenever put under any kind of pressure, but the goalkeeper remains in place.

Andrew Robertson- another team without as many clean sheets as I would have imagined at this stage of the season. Robertson still provides an attacking threat and may be able to shake off an ankle injury in time for this one.

Benjamin Mendy- he was surprisingly a healthy scratch against Liverpool, but Manchester City's defensive performance was far from ideal. The Frenchman could be back in the starting line up this week.

Caglar Soyuncu- Brighton away is far from easy, but Leicester City have three clean sheets in a row.

John Lundstram- I think the game against Manchester United might be more eventful than what the layers believe. Using Lundstram means having a midfielder rather than the designated defender he is.

Anthony Martial- the Manchester United Number 9 has sparked a return to scoring goals for the club.

Sadio Mane- in the form Mane is in, you can't afford to be without him.

Raheem Sterling (C)- it wasn't the best international break for Sterling having got into it with Joe Gomez which led to a one game suspension. Should mean the England winger is fresh enough for this one and I am going to Captain him in what could be a high-scoring game against Chelsea.

Youri Tielemans- a tough game at Brighton, but Tielemans with every chance of an assist or a goal.

Andreas Pereira- this will surprise many, including those who I speak to about Manchester United on a regular basis, but Andreas Pereira is going to be starting more often than not while Paul Pogba is out.

In the position he is being asked to play, Pereira is set for potential returns in goals and assists even if he is not the long-term answer for United fans. With the games coming up, he looks a no brainer for me and being a lot cheaper than Callum Hudson-Odoi.

Tammy Abraham- Chelsea should head to the Etihad Stadium with more ambition than the last two managers. With the home team looking vulnerable defensively, I don't mind playing Abraham (although I don't have a lot of choices).

Bench- Michael McGovern, Fiyaki Tomori (playing at Manchester City, but also my only fit sub), Josh King (injured), Xande Silva (injured).

NFL Week 12 Picks 2019 (November 21-25)

We are now one week away from Thanksgiving Day in the United States and that also means the final Bye Weeks for teams are going to be completed.

It is a sure sign that we are entering the final run towards the PlayOffs in the NFL as teams jockey for position in the final Seedings. January does have a feel of a 'new season' when teams are in the PlayOffs, but for now it is all about getting into a position to be able to play those games.

It is also a big time for Fantasy Players with a couple of weeks to go before most will enter their PlayOffs. I have a couple of teams in long-term Leagues, one that is Drafted every season and one which is Drafted with 'Keepers', and I look good to enter the post-season in both of those. Hopefully those positions can be locked up by the end of Week 12 and I can also rebuild the season when it comes to the NFL Picks too.

Before we get into the Picks, you can read a few thoughts I have from Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season as well as my updated Power Ranking.


Colin Kaepernick's workout debacle: I was pretty happy to hear that Colin Kaepernick was going to have a chance to impress NFL scouts last Saturday, but it seems like the Quarter Back and the League have agendas that can't be placed on the same page.

The late decision from Kaepernick's team to move the workout and open it up to the media meant seventeen of the twenty-five teams who had committed to come and watch in Atlanta decided not to make the hour trek to the new venue.

I have always supported what Kaepernick was taking a knee for and have separated it from the narrative that many wanted to run with in that he was offending the flag. However I don't know whether he is as keen to return to the NFL as he claims when he makes the kind of power move he did last week.

It will have reminded many teams of the kind of baggage they could be dealing with and for someone who is a borderline starter, but much likely to be a backup, it is simply not worth upsetting entire locker rooms or fan bases for.

Last week I was sure this was going to be the first step towards Kaepernick returning to the League in 2020, but now I am less certain. Some teams will need new starting Quarter Backs next season, but there are some big names that could be on the market and players who are considered better than Kaepernick.

This all feels like it has been a PR move from both sides and one that is not going to make supporters of either side feel very positive about it.


Lamar Jackson will win the MVP award: Another thought from last week was about the regular season MVP race and I thought Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson were leading the way.

After the blow out of the Houston Texans Jackson looks to be the clear favourite now and I think he will be a runaway winner of the award if the Ravens are able to finish with a top two Seed in the AFC.

They are the hottest team in the NFL right now, with the only downside being of possibly peaking too early, and Jackson has been a huge part of that with strong stats both through the air and on the ground.

You can see what Jackson means to the whole team when hearing Mark Ingram introduce him last week and I have no doubt that the Quarter Back is key to the record Baltimore have so far this season.


Should New England be worried?: That might sound like a stupid question when a team is 9-1 and with the joint best record in the NFL, but the Patriots were far from happy with their Offensive performance in the win over Philadelphia last week.

Tom Brady is still playing well, but there is little support around him and Rob Gronkowski's rumoured return looks to have been shot down for good.

Others suggest Antonio Brown could be re-signed by New England, but it just goes back to the point that the Patriots need to be better from an Offensive point of view if they are going to win the Super Bowl again.

Defensively they have remained strong, but in the PlayOffs they will need more from the other unit if they are going to defend the title they won last season. The Patriots can get things right for sure, but I wouldn't be rushing out to add any of their Offensive pieces to my Fantasy team and I think the team are going to be well tested in reality on Sunday too.

My Top Five

1) Baltimore Ravens- Deshaun Watson was rattled and they have the leading name for the MVP regular season award. Add in the fact the Ravens have beaten the New England Patriots in a blowout and I think they deserve to move to my Number 1 spot.

2) New England Patriots- pretty much for the whole of this season I've thought of the Patriots as the team to beat. By Week 11 I thought they would have figured out things on the Offensive side of the ball, but failure to show that so far means I have to drop them even after a road win.

3) New Orleans Saints- Drew Brees looked fully healthy and the Saints might be the team to beat in the NFC.

4) San Francisco 49ers- Jimmy Garoppolo had another big outing against the Arizona Cardinals, but the 49ers needed a late couple of scores to beat their opponents. The 49ers are getting healthier Offensively and the Defense is still playing very well.

5) Green Bay Packers- I am looking forward to Sunday Night Football when the Packers visit the 49ers, a game that could easily be seen for a second time in the 2019 season when we get to the PlayOffs.

My Bottom Five

32) Cincinnati Bengals- they remain winless and that doesn't look like changing soon.

31) Washington Redskins- some of the players looked completely disinterested as the Redskins were walloped by the New York Jets. Season can't end quick enough for everyone involved.

30) New York Giants= they were on a Bye Week in Week 11.

29) Miami Dolphins- a blowout home loss to the Buffalo Bills would have hurt, but the Dolphins are still very much on the path to a top five Pick in the NFL Draft.

28) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- both the Atlanta Falcons and the New York Jets keep winning and that means dropping Tampa Bay into this spot.

Week 12 Picks

There have been a lot more bad weeks than good for the NFL Picks up to Week 12, but I have had back to back winning weeks.

Even with that in mind that does not mean I have been very happy with what I saw in Week 11... The most bogus miss of the season has to be the Arizona Cardinals failure to cover with a 10 point start despite leading the 49ers by three points with less than a minute left on the clock.

The Cardinals gave up a Touchdown with time expired to lose by ten points as the 49ers recovered a ball that had been thrown around by the Cardinals as they looked for a miracle. I have no doubt this should have been a Touchdown that needed to be reviewed, while for some reason the 49ers did not have to kick the extra point which would have seen my Pick lose.

It is easily the baddest of bad beats that anyone could have suffered this season and prevented this from being a week which took a serious chunk out of the deficit. I will have to appease my mind with the knowledge that it was a winning week, but there is still a lot of work to do to make sure the 2019 season ends with a winning record like 2018.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: The AFC Wild Card race could be one that goes down to the wire and even 4-6 teams like the Cleveland Browns must feel there is still an opportunity for them to make the PlayOffs. None of that will matter to these two AFC South teams meeting on Thursday Night Football with the lead in the Division on the line.

Both the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are at 6-4 for the season and are one and two in the Division. The Colts can take a big step towards a home PlayOff Game if they can win as they already have beaten the Texans once this season and will hold the tie-breaker over their rivals as well as being a game ahead of them with six games left to go.

That does put some pressure on the Texans who are looking to pick themselves up from the absolute beatdown that the Baltimore Ravens put on them in Week 11. However this is a Quarter Back and a team who have not been ones that have allowed defeats to define them and I do think Deshaun Watson and the Texans will be much better in Week 12.

The Texans have lost three in a row to their Divisional rivals and the earlier loss in the regular season does put them in a difficult position on a short week. Houston will have to look to establish the run in order to give Watson a bit more protection at Quarter Back.

They have been good at running the ball with Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson being backed up by the ability of Watson to scramble for First Downs too. But this week the Texans are facing an Indianapolis team who have been improving when it comes to making plays to stop the run and the Colts have restricted teams to 3.1 yards per carry across their last three games which is significantly better than their season numbers.

Houston's Offensive Line continues to have issues in pass protection and the Colts can also stall some drives with big plays made in obvious passing situations. I still believe Watson will have some success because is a quality Quarter Back, but he has also made some bad mistakes when being put under intense pressure and that could be the case in this big game too.

Indianapolis are a run first Offensive unit and they should be feeling pretty happy with the game plan after dominating Jacksonville up front. Jacoby Brissett is back in the line up after missing the defeat to the Miami Dolphins, but he didn't need to be much more than a game manager when helping Indianapolis see off the Jaguars in Week 11.

Marlon Mack is injured, but Jonathan Williams had a big game at Running Back for the Colts in his absence last week. Williams will be given support by Nyhiem Hines and Jordan Wilkins and the Colts will have to believe they can still work something on the ground against this Texans Defensive Line which has just been struggling in recent games to contain the run.

The Quarter Back is also capable of making some plays with his legs, but Brissett will be hoping he will be at least in a third and manageable spot throughout this game. JJ Watt is out so some of the pass rush pressure is not there, but Brissett will know that even being with a potentially hobbled TY Hilton won't be enough to move the chains without the run opening up the passing lanes.

There is no doubt that the Houston Secondary can be exposed and Brissett had a big game against them earlier in the season too. He should be able to help the Colts move the chains and only a big turnover game will see the Colts blown out as far as I am concerned.

It makes the points with the underdog look appealing in this Thursday Night Football game. The Texans have been a good team to back off a loss in recent seasons, but they have been struggling at home where they can be a touch overrated.

Indianapolis have also been the better team on Thursday Night Football and the Colts have a very strong recent record against Houston. Having more than a Field Goal looks too good to ignore as far as I am concerned.


Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills Pick: There is a real opportunity for the Buffalo Bills to take control of one of the Wild Card spots in the AFC if they can beat another team with a losing record in Week 12. They can't really afford to overlook the Denver Broncos considering how the remainder of the schedule shapes up, but Buffalo have to also factor in the big Thanksgiving Day coming up this Thursday against the Dallas Cowboys.

The Broncos have to pick themselves up from a disappointing Week 11 effort which saw them blow a 20 point half time lead in the eventual loss to the Minnesota Vikings. That means Denver have lost three of their last four games to fall to 3-7 and it looks like a season after which the Head Coach and future of the Quarter Back position are going to have to be seriously considered.

There is some talent throughout the roster and that has seen the Broncos at least be largely competitive in games throughout the 2019 season. They can continue that against the Bills especially if there is even a slight lack of focus from the home team and the match up might be one that works for the Broncos too.

Running the ball against the Bills Defensive Line has not been easy in 2019, but in recent games there have been a change in fortunes for them. Over the last three games Buffalo have given up 4.8 yards per carry when teams look to pound the rock against them and I do think Denver's Offensive Line will be feeling confident in establishing the run in this game.

It is the best way for Brandon Allen to get into a position to help Denver move the ball as the backup Quarter Back has struggled for accuracy. Any time he will be in third and long situations you have to give the Bills pass rush the huge edge in the match up and forcing Allen to throw from pressurised positions could lead to turnovers and drives stalling.

I expect some misdirection to be used as it was in the first half against the Minnesota Vikings, but Denver should have the ability to establish the run which will give them a chance to upset the odds in this one.

Clock management is going to be key for both teams as Buffalo will be looking to run the ball first and foremost themselves. However the Bills have just hit the wall on the Offensive Line which has seen them struggle for consistency when it comes to running the ball, and that could be highlighted against the Broncos Defensive Line which is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry in their last three games.

The Broncos have been strong up front for much of the season, but Josh Allen could have a little more success throwing the ball than you may imagine. The Denver Secondary has just been exploited by teams in recent games, although Buffalo don't have the same kind of Receiving weapons as Cleveland, Minnesota and Indianapolis have been able to call upon.

John Brown should be able to make some plays for this team and Josh Allen can make some plays with his legs, but the Denver pass rush has come alive in recent weeks and they should be able to stall some drives too. The Quarter Back has been looking after the ball a little better in recent games, but Allen might be forced into making big plays in this game and that could lead to more mistakes than we have seen.

My feeling is that Denver have a chance to keep this one close and getting more than a Field Goal worth of points is hard to ignore. The Broncos should be able to run the ball with some success and they have some decent numbers against the spread, while Buffalo have sometimes struggled to really impose themselves against teams they should be beating.

Taking the points in this one looks to be the right play.


Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: At the end of October many Carolina Panthers fans were not too concerned by the continued absence of Cam Newton at Quarter Back. Some even went as far as to say that Kyle Allen was a better fit for the team and at that point the Carolina Panthers looked to be in a very good position to try and battle for the NFC South Divisional title.

Three losses in four games have just stemmed the momentum the Panthers had been earning and the blow out loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 11 would have really hurt. It has dropped the Panthers to 5-5 and a loss in Week 12 would likely mean the team are also likely to be out of contention for the Wild Card spots in a top loaded Conference.

The Divisional race could be beyond them for sure by the end of this week as they get set to face the New Orleans Saints who are 3 games clear at the top of the NFC South. These two teams are facing each other twice in the final six weeks of the season, but the Saints will be the more confident team coming into Week 12 and being at home should be a huge boost for them.

Drew Brees looked much better in Week 12 as the Saints beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road, but they have to remain focused and not worry about earning a potential revenge over the Atlanta Falcons on Thanksgiving Day. The Quarter Back is likely to be aided by a big game out of both Latavius Murray and Alvin Kamara who are going to be establishing the run against a Carolina Defensive Line which has just struggled to clamp down on the run.

It will open things up for Brees who will have seen the holes that Carolina have had exploited in the Secondary in their recent games. Matt Ryan carved them up in Week 11 and Brees should have plenty of success either throwing the short passes to Kamara or hitting Michael Thomas further down the field.

The only real chance the Panthers have of getting into a position to earn the upset is through the pass rush and see if they can pressure Brees into forcing his throws. It won't be easy if they are struggling to contain the run though and instead the Panthers are going to need a big effort out of the Offensive unit.

Christian McCaffrey will earn his numbers as he has throughout the season, but the Saints have shown they can be stout on the Defensive Line which may limit the Running Back. New Orleans will focus their attention on trying to clamp down on McCaffrey and force Kyle Allen to beat them through the air and I think the Saints will be able to at least force the Quarter Back into some third downs where he will need his arm to convert the yards.

Allen should have some success moving the chains as he did in the loss to the Falcons in Week 11, but he has to be aware of the pass rush that New Orleans can generate. A bigger concern might be the Interceptions with nine thrown in the last four games as Allen has just struggled with his accuracy despite having some decent Receivers to target.

The Saints have been able to turn the ball over in recent games and they will feel they can make some big plays against the Panthers to give the team a chance to pull away for the win.

The underdog has dominated the recent series between these two Divisional rivals, but I think the Saints can cover what looks to be a big mark on paper. They are 4-1 against the spread when coming off a big win like they had over the Buccaneers in Week 11 and I do think New Orleans will have a bit too much for Carolina on both sides of the ball.

A couple of turnovers in favour of New Orleans should give them a chance to pull away in this one and I will back the home team to cover despite an upcoming Thanksgiving Day game.


Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets Pick: Jon Gruden might not have seen his second tenure with the Oakland Raiders get off to the start he wanted, but the team look a lot better in 2019 compared with 2018. This is happening despite the upheaval caused by Antonio Brown before the season even begun, while most expected the Raiders to be a year away from being competitive at the least, but Oakland moved to 6-4 with a third win in a row in Week 11.

They head east to take on the New York Jets in Week 12 and have to respect the hosts who have won back to back games. Those wins have come against two of the weakest teams in the NFL, but both times the Jets have been set as the underdog and they won't mind being in that situation again in Week 12.

Sam Darnold looks to be as healthy as any point in the 2019 season and he can lead the Jets to another upset this week. He should be aided by Le'Veon Bell who is facing up to the Oakland Defensive Line which is giving up 5.8 yards per carry in their last three games and that should at least give the Jets the chance to establish the run.

The Offensive Line has not really dominated as they would have liked, while Bell is not having the kind of season he would have wanted after signing a big contract with New York but this could be one of the better weeks the team enjoys on the ground. It may even take a few passes to just open things up on the ground, while Bell can also be a factor as a Receiver coming out of the backfield against this Oakland team.

Darnold will look to make the short passes to Bell and Jamison Crowder to open things up for the deep ball and he should have a decent enough outing against the Raiders Secondary. There are one or two things that will concern the Quarter Back and those who are backing the Jets and that is the Oakland pass rush which has generated a lot of pressure on opposing Quarter Backs in recent games.

If Sam Darnold 'sees ghosts' as he did in the Monday Night Football loss to the New England Patriots it could be a long day for him, especially as Oakland have also been turning the ball over with big plays in the Secondary. However the game plan should involve plenty of Le'Veon Bell and that should see the Jets just move the chains and give themselves a chance of the upset.

I have been impressed with what I have seen from Oakland, but this is a tough spot for them having to play the early game on the East Coast and with a big game against rivals Kansas City on deck. That game in Week 13 is huge to decide which way the AFC West Division may go so it could be a big distraction for Oakland, while the Raiders are also playing an improving New York Defensive unit.

Josh Jacobs has been huge for Oakland and the rookie Running Back has proven to be a key to the Offensive side of the ball, but this week he is facing a Jets Defensive Line giving up just 2.1 yards per carry in their last three games. The Jets have been able to clamp down on Running Backs all season and they will believe keeping the Raiders in third and long will be a big win for them.

You have to respect how well Derek Carr has been playing at Quarter Back for Oakland and I do think he can make some positive plays in this one too. However he has just found himself under more pressure from pass rushes in recent games and now faces a Jets team who have generated plenty of pressure on opposing teams in the last three games.

There are still one or two holes in the Secondary which can be exploited for Oakland, but the New York pass rush should be able to stall drives and I think it will be key in perhaps giving the home team enough opportunities to win outright, let alone cover with the points.

Neither team has been very impressive at home/on the road when it comes to the trends, but I think the whole spot favours New York in this one. It would not be a major surprise to see Oakland perhaps just be a touch distracted and having a full Field Goal start with the hosts looks too good to pass up.

As well as Oakland have done to get to 6-4, I do think they have been involved in very close games all season and the Jets have turned a corner with back to back wins. Those have come against two of the weaker teams in the NFL so I don't want to give them too much weight, but the Jets look in a good spot to cover here.


Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots Pick: No team has won more games than the New England Patriots in the 2019 NFL season and the defending Super Bowl Champions are very much on course for at least a Bye into the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs.

With that in mind it might be something of a surprise to see the Patriots as frustrated as they were out of their win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11. The win would have been one that was appreciated by their opponents this week as the Dallas Cowboys were able to move a game clear of the Eagles in the NFC East.

There is no doubt that the Patriots have the edge when it comes to the Coaching match up, but Tom Brady is the latest player on the injury report and I do think a banged up Patriots team will have a test in Week 12. Brady is going to play, but the Offensive unit have struggled for consistency and they don't figure to have a much easier day when facing this Dallas Defensive unit.

Offensive Line problems have meant Sony Michel has not really been able to get going on the ground as he would have liked and that has put more pressure on Brady at Quarter Back. The Patriots continue to use a committee at Running Back, but the Dallas Cowboys will feel they can at least make enough plays up front to limit the damage any of the players used by New England can do on the ground.

Tom Brady has to hope the run game can at least put his team in third and manageable spots because he won't really want to face the Dallas pass rush while searching for open Receivers. Mohamed Sanu is the latest New England Receiver to go down with an injury and the only consistent threat will be Julian Edelman, although Dallas have a Secondary which can at least prevent the Receiver from doing significant damage to them.

In Foxboro it is difficult to imagine the Patriots are completely shut down Offensively, especially with Tom Brady likely wanting to prove a point after a below par performance in Week 11. Brady has enjoyed playing the Cowboys in his career and has openly admitted this is a team he has rooted against throughout his life having grown up a 49ers fan. It should mean he is motivated for a big outing, but New England have to find a consistency Offensively which has been lacking throughout the season.

The Patriots Defensive unit have really been the key to the 9-1 start and they will be looking to slow down a Dallas team who have been pretty strong for much of the season. One aspect in which New England have just struggled of late is stopping the run and it should be an opportunity for Ezekiel Elliot to get back on track after some disappointing performances in recent games.

Elliot himself has said he is not bothered by personal stats as long as the Cowboys are winning and three wins in four games during a time when the Running Back has not been at his best is the most important thing. I do think Elliot may be in line for a better performance in this game and Dallas are going to need him to release some of the pressure that will be heaped on Dak Prescott's shoulders if the Cowboys are not able to at least rip off some big gains on the ground.

Dak Prescott has had some very big outings for Dallas in recent weeks, but this Patriots Secondary is not easy to throw against. They are scheming very well and have players that can erase the impact a banged up Amari Cooper may have on the game.

However we did see Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb have big games for Dallas in the win over Detroit last week and I do think Prescott will have a better day than Carson Wentz. He has been well protected by the Offensive Line and that should give Dallas a chance of keeping this one close with Prescott also capable of making some plays with his legs.

On paper this does look like a lot of points to give to the road team when you think of the issues New England have had Offensively. My one concern has to be how Dallas have played when meeting teams with winning records and the lack of covers in those games, while New England are very strong at home.

However I do think Dallas can control the clock by getting the run going behind this Offensive Line and even the upcoming Thanksgiving Day should not provide a distraction for the Cowboys. This is a huge game for Dallas to show they can compete with the top teams in the NFL and I think they are worth backing with the start on the spread.


Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: With the way things are shaping up in the NFC, these two teams are going to be playing PlayOff Football in January. It could be a game of huge importance when it comes to working out the Seeding in the NFC too and both the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers are also trying to hold off teams chasing them in their respective Divisions.

The San Francisco 49ers have the best record in the NFC at 9-1, but they are only a game ahead of the Seattle Seahawks in the West Division having lost to them a couple of weeks ago. Their visitors the Green Bay Packers are at 8-2 which has them half a game ahead of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North, but this is a game that could see the Packers move into a strong spot to take a Bye through to the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs.

Injuries have just slowed down the dominance of the 49ers in recent weeks, but they should have George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders available to spark the Offensive unit. Jimmy Garoppolo has been playing well at Quarter Back and will need to be at his best in this one too, but the 49ers might be able to go back to basics in Week 12 and that is running the ball effectively.

In the last three games San Francisco have really struggled to establish the run, but I think the Packers Defensive Line has proven to be one that can struggle to stop teams on the ground. The return of Kittle and Sanders will mean the Packers can't sell out to stop the 49ers on the ground and I do think we will see the 49ers get back to what was successful earlier in the season.

The recent performances of Garoppolo have to be encouraging anyway as he has given the 49ers a chance to win games even with some problems on the ground. Green Bay's pass rush could cause issues if the 49ers are not able to keep Garoppolo and the Offense in third and manageable spots, but I do think the Quarter Back can have a strong showing against a Packers Secondary that has struggled at times throughout the season.

Of course it can be hard to oppose the Green Bay Packers when you think they are coming out of a Bye Week and the extra preparation for this game makes them dangerous. This feels like the kind of game in which Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones can really put their stamp on things as they will establish the run against a San Francisco Defensive Line which has not been able to stop teams on the ground.

Throughout the 2019 season San Francisco have struggled to clamp down on the run, and I do think Green Bay can have success in this one too. And that just makes things a little more comfortable for Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back who will need to be kept in third and manageable spots if the Packers are going to win this game.

Any time Green Bay are in obvious passing spots or behind the chains you can expect the San Francisco pass rush to be unleashed against an Offensive Line struggling in pass protection. The 49ers should be able to get to Rodgers even though the Quarter Back is a pretty mobile one and that pressure can only aid what has been a very good Secondary for San Francisco.

I don't like opposing Aaron Rodgers who is capable of making some big throws to move the chains, but this does feel like a game in which he may struggle for some consistency. If the Packers do have some issues in staying in front of the chains then it could be difficult to maintain drives and I do like San Francisco in this Sunday Night Football offering.

My feeling is that San Francisco will be more balanced when it comes to the Offensive play-calling and that can be the key to the outcome of this game. Green Bay are out of a Bye Week, but they are only 1-3-1 against the spread the last five times in that situation and the 49ers should be motivated to show they are as good as the record would suggest.

The public are behind the visitors but the spread looks to be trending in favour of the 49ers which suggest the sharp money is on the home team. I tend to lean that way too and will look for San Francisco to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Jets + 3 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 3 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Week 11: 4-3-1, + 1.48 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.25% Yield)
Week 10: 4-3, + 1.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 7.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.64 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35% Yield)
Week 7: 2-4, - 4.10 Units (12 Units Staked, - 34.17% Yield)
Week 6: 6-3, + 4.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 26.89% Yield)
Week 5: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 4: 3-6, - 6.54 Units (18 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2, + 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Season 2019: 41-42-1, - 10.04 Units (165 Units Staked, - 6.08% Yield)