Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (November 23-25)

The last international break of the 2019 calendar year has come and gone and we have been given the twenty nations that will definitely be playing at the next European Championships which begin in June 2020.

Before this month comes to a close the draw for the Finals will be made and that will be of huge interest to fans of England and Wales. Before that the Play Off draw is also made as the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland look to make the most of the reprieves they have been given after failing to finish in the top two of their respective Qualifying Groups.


Having a major international tournament coming up in the summer is obviously going to be exciting, but that is for another day for most players. The focus now will be getting ready to enter what is always a very hectic part of the English Football calendar as most Premier League teams will be ready to play nine games in the top flight before the FA Cup Third Round over the first weekend of January.

During that time the top teams will have two more European Champions League/Europa League Group games to negotiate as well as the Quarter Final of the League Cup. Watch out for rotations and injuries becoming a major factor at this time of the season with teams looking to make sure they don't lose any momentum in a period where matches are played every few days.

That is difficult for the managers to negotiate and also for all the Fantasy Football players that will be looking to make some hay during this time of the season. I would definitely keep an eye on deadlines for transfers with limited time between games to pick up information and it is going to be a tough time for all.


In this thread you will see my Picks from the latest round of fixtures and I will then move onto GW13 and my Fantasy thoughts out of the international break.


West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Things can change very quickly in football and proof of that came in North London this past week as Jose Mourinho takes over from Mauricio Pochettino as manager of Tottenham Hotspur.

Within the space of twelve hours Tottenham Hotspur made the decisions that have taken over all of the headlines in England. Whether this is the correct decision will be seen in the months and years ahead, but Tottenham Hotspur have an underachieving squad that should quickly pick up under new guidance.

A toxic environment seems to have been partly the reason for Pochettino to be moved on months after reaching the Champions League Final. We saw at Manchester United last December that teams can quickly turn their form around when the manager has been replaced and I think we could see that with Tottenham Hotspur too.

Winning in East London won't be easy, but West Ham United have been in miserable form and this looks as good an opportunity for Tottenham Hotspur to snap their poor away run as they could have hoped for. Spurs have won on their last three visits to the London Stadium and this is a team who have the goals within the squad to hurt a West Ham United team who are defending poorly.

West Ham United might feel they can create chances of their own considering the performances of Tottenham Hotspur away from home, but I think the new voice is going to get off to a positive start.

Jose Mourinho suffered an embarrassing loss when he took Manchester United to the London Stadium last season, but I think this squad is capable of turning around their form very quickly. The price has shrunk for an away win as soon as the news came out about the Mauricio Pochettino sacking, but I think Tottenham Hotspur can be backed.

At odds against you can back Spurs to win a game featuring at least two goals and I think that is a good price considering I feel the away team will need at least two goals to win here.


Arsenal v Southampton Pick: On the face of things you can understand why Arsenal are such favourites to beat Southampton on Saturday, but it is not easy to trust the home team on their current form.

No wins in 5 games in all competitions have just increased the pressure on Unai Emery as manager of the club, while Arsenal have found it difficult to blow teams away even at home.

Back to back teams have visited the Emirates Stadium and come away with a point so there will be some belief in the Southampton squad. However they have also been having some difficulties in finding positive results despite being a competitive team outside of the stunning 0-9 defeat to Leicester City.

Ralph Hasenhuttl is another manager feeling the pressure at the moment, but his team have been more competitive away from home. They had the lead at Manchester City in the Premier League earlier this month and have scored in defeats to Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Chelsea in the League this season.

The Saints can definitely play their part here, but Arsenal should have too much for them when it is all said and done. I can't really back Arsenal to cover the Asian Handicap on their current form, but they can win a game featuring two or more goals and that is the selection here.


Bournemouth v Wolves Pick: If there is one team in the Premier League I have yet to really get to grips with it is Wolves and that is largely down to the fact that the team doesn't score a lot of goals, but also doesn't concede a lot either.

For the majority of the season that has meant me moving past their games even though Wolves secured a winner when earning a draw at Arsenal earlier this month.

This is a difficult looking game out of the international break, although I do think Bournemouth have been dented by the injury suffered by Josh King. A team who have not been as free-flowing in the final third as in recent years can ill-afford another attacking absentee, but Bournemouth have to be respected for the strength they have shown defensively this season.

It makes this a tough game to really have a good feel for and I think there are better options out there.


Brighton v Leicester City Pick: I had little doubt that Brendan Rodgers could guide Leicester City to the best of the rest position outside of the top six at the beginning of the season, but even I have to be surprised by how much they have pushed on. This was a team I felt were a dark horse for a top four spot when you think of the issues the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea had coming into the season, but Leicester City have been stronger than anyone could have really believed.

They are big favourites to keep their positive run going when travelling to Brighton on Saturday and I am sure there will be plenty ready to back The Foxes here.

However I am a little cautious because Brighton have been very good at home under Graham Potter. They won't be afraid to attack Leicester City and can also hurt them on the counter attack too and I think this could be a close match.

Aaron Connelly's injury is a blow for the home team, but Leicester City are a team grabbing the headlines which makes them plenty short in the market. They may well win here and keep the momentum going, but I have to give this one a watching brief.


Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: Over the next few weeks Liverpool could really take a firm grip on the Premier League title race as they manage a good looking fixture list at a time when Manchester City have to play the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal.

Jurgen Klopp doesn't need to worry about what other clubs are doing if his Liverpool team keep winning and they should be good enough to see off a Crystal Palace team who have struggled in recent weeks.

Those struggles have come at a time when Crystal Palace have faced a number of teams inside the top six and the back to back losses to Manchester City and Leicester City at home shows the kind of ceiling this team have.

If Wilfried Zaha is not fit to play then it makes things all the more difficult for Crystal Palace and that is even accounting for the fact that Mohamed Salah may not be available.

At this stage of the season I do think we already have a clear favourite for the Premier League title and Liverpool have continued to find big results through difficult times. They have goals in the side and Crystal Palace struggle in the final third which should mean a sixth straight win for The Reds at Selhurst Park.

Backing Liverpool to cover the Asian Handicap is difficult because this is a team who seem to do just enough to secure the points on their travels. Only one of their five away Premier League wins have come by more than a single goal margin and that is going to be needed to win on the Asian Handicap.

Instead backing Liverpool to win a game featuring two or more goals looks the best angle in this Premier League game.


Everton v Norwich City Pick: Earlier this month I mentioned that Brighton looked very short to beat Norwich City in the Premier League, but they were comfortable winners and it seems more and more likely that the latter are simply not up to the standards of the Premier League.

That could change with some huge investment in January, but Norwich City have to make sure they are still in touch with the teams above them at that time.

We have the busy festive period coming up first and Norwich City have looked short of the quality needed at both ends of the field. They have particularly struggled away from home and all 5 losses have come by at least two goal margins.

Everton can match those results as they have proven to be a much better team at home than on their travels. The win at Southampton should be a boost in confidence the players might need and Everton should have the majority of the play in this one.

I do sometimes worry about the ability of a team like Everton to break down a side they should be beating. They also don't have the best record against Norwich City in recent years, but I can't ignore how poorly Norwich City have been defending and I think that shows up here.

Backing Everton to win and cover the Asian Handicap is my pick.


Watford v Burnley Pick: A win over Norwich City will have given Watford Football Club a big lift, but the international break could not have come at a worse time.

They are favoured to beat Burnley this weekend, but I don't really want to oppose Sean Dyche's men who have made it a habit to surprise in fixtures like this one.

Both teams scoring would not be a big surprise, but the fixture is one that will turn on the first goal and I am not prepared to guess which may that goes. I can make a case for all three results in this fixture, although with a gun to my head I would likely pick a 1-1 draw.

Luckily for me I am not being forced to put any units down on this one and so I will move onto the late Saturday kick off.


Manchester City v Chelsea Pick: The headlines this Premier League weekend might be all about the return of Jose Mourinho, but Manchester City versus Chelsea is the big game in this round of fixtures.

Manchester City are looking to bounce back from the 3-1 loss at Anfield which leaves them 9 points off the leaders, but this is a club who have responded to setbacks under Pep Guardiola. The manager will know his team need a long winning run to see if they can at least pressurise Liverpool into mistakes and Manchester City have been very strong at home.

Wolves won here though and Chelsea won't be intimidated by the task in hand with their young players seemingly thriving when playing away from home. The Blues have won 7 away games in a row including twice in the Champions League and Frank Lampard won't want to shift too far from his principles to make sure Chelsea threaten Manchester City way more than they did under Antonio Conte or Maurizio Sarri.

Last season Chelsea were hammered 6-0 here, but Lampard's team have been scoring goals for fun away from Stamford Bridge.

They will feel they can hurt a Manchester City who have looked vulnerable at the back ever since Aymeric Laporte went down with an injury and they have to be respected. However I think it is difficult to ignore the fact that Chelsea have lost twice to Manchester United, once to Liverpool and drawn with Leicester City so far this season.

Even 5th placed Sheffield United earned a draw with Chelsea and I do think Frank Lampard's team have struggled against the top teams. Chelsea did win at Ajax, but The Blues were 1-4 down at home before their hosts were reduced to nine men and I think Manchester City will prove to be too strong on the day.

Backing Manchester City to win the game and cover the Handicap in a high-scoring game looks to be the play here.


Sheffield United v Manchester United Pick: There is one Premier League game being played on Super Sunday this week and it looks an intriguing one between Sheffield United and Manchester United.

On the face of things you would likely expect a low-scoring, tough to read match and in all honesty Sheffield United look a very big price to win the game when you think of how they have played this season.

Sheffield United have beaten Arsenal here already, while Liverpool needed some luck to win thanks to a mistake from Dean Henderson. The goalkeeper has largely been effective for Sheffield United though and his absence this weekend is a blow for Chris Wilder who has a preferred eleven in his thoughts.

That absence could make Sheffield United a little more vulnerable to the Manchester United attack which has come to life in recent games. After struggling for goals, the return of Anthony Martial has just sparked things for Manchester United and they have now scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions.

Chances are being created too and I do think the front three of Martial, Marcus Rashford and Daniel James can cause problems here.

In saying that I also think Sheffield United will be effective going forward thanks to the style employed by Chris Wilder. They don't score a lot of goals, but Sheffield United do create chances too and I think the layers might be underestimating the chance of seeing at least three goals shared out this Sunday.

Goals might not have been flowing at Bramall Lane, but I think that could potentially change if teams continue to create chances at both ends like we have seen. Better finishing will see different results from what we have seen so far this season and I think that could potentially begin this weekend.

At odds against backing at least three goals to be shared out looks to be the play.


Aston Villa v Newcastle United Pick: The final match of the Premier League weekend comes from Villa Park as Aston Villa host Newcastle United in a big game for both clubs.

Dean Smith and Steve Bruce will recognise the importance of picking up points from fixtures like this one for Aston Villa and Newcastle United respectively in the fight to avoid the drop.

Both teams were playing well enough prior to the international break to think this could be a good game of football for the neutrals to enjoy. Aston Villa have proven to be strong at home, but Newcastle United have just found an identity to produce goals and I can see the two teams scoring in this one.

Much of that is down to Aston Villa being a solid attacking team, but one that has allowed too many chances throughout the course of the season. It should mean Newcastle United can be in a position to work some good openings in this match, but holding out against Aston Villa won't be easy for a team who have lost 66% of their away games played this season.

Aston Villa look like a team that will be involved in some higher scoring games throughout the season with their current approach. However they will believe they can win plenty of games if they perform as they have been and I give them a narrow edge in this one.

My bigger feeling is that this game will feature at least three goals shared out though and that is the approach I am going to have to this fixture. At close to odds against quotes I believe backing goals is the best way forward in this fixture.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Arsenal & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.70 Coral (2 Units)
Everton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sheffield United-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Unit)
Aston Villa-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

November 2019/20: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
October 2019/20: 16-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 13

The last international break of the 2019 calendar year is now behind us and there are plenty of Fantasy Football decisions to be made in the coming days and weeks.

Remember this is the time of the year when games come thick and fast which means multiple GameWeeks are also scheduled to be played. It does mean you should be looking to make some long-term decisions (those that will take you through until the change of the calendar year), while I would also make sure you are happy with your bench option at a time when rotations are going to be made by the managers.

I picked up 68 points in GameWeek 12 which is a decent enough return and above the average of the week. My Captain also put in a good effort too, but you can read the changes I have been forced to make to my team in GW13 when you read further below.

Before that I have a few thoughts about teams that seem to be in vogue at the moment and those that might be ready to have us join a potential bandwagon.

Leicester City- fantasy players have been falling over themselves to bring in Leicester City squad members into their teams thanks to a 4 game winning run.

Many of their assets have increased in value and I don't think you can be put off by what looks a generous fixture list over the next four GWs.

I have two players, but I still believe it is not worth adding a third. Jamie Vardy is in great form, but I continue to look past him as some of the underlying stats are simply not making great reading. He is someone who can over-perform expectations, but I do think all the value is gone and going with a midfielder and a defender is good enough.

James Maddison is still the midfielder I would target if I was playing from scratch, although I am happy enough with Youri Tielemans.

Arsenal- Unai Emery's uncertain position as manager does make it hard to really trust Arsenal assets, but I do think this is a good time for them to make some hay.

The fixture list looks very kind in the weeks ahead and I really like Alexandre Lacazette at a price which is below Roberto Firmino and Jamie Vardy's in the FPL game. He is usually the main centre forward when getting a start for Arsenal and the shot count underlines that.

Injuries do leave him more open to rotation which is a concern, but I think Lacazette will enjoy games against Southampton, Norwich City, Brighton and West Ham United.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is another choice, but he is largely played out on the left when Lacazette plays, while I would have a second look at Nicolas Pepe too.

Tottenham Hotspur- I doubt this has gotten past anyone, but Jose Mourinho is back in the Premier League and takes over a Tottenham Hotspur team who have been underperforming to say the least.

It is going to be interesting to see how Tottenham Hotspur line up under Mourinho, but I would expect to see an improvement defensively so those assets could be worth bringing back.

Harry Kane had been playing deeper than we have become accustomed to under Mauricio Pochettino, but he is another I fully expect to be back in a more standard Number 9 spot and this is a team I am keeping a close eye on. After the Manchester United game in early December I think I will be using some Spurs players with a more manageable fixture list to come.

Crystal Palace- I know they have been in poor form, but don't ignore the fixture list Crystal Palace have been involved in.

They finish up their run of matches against top six clubs this weekend and this is a club that looks to have a generous run until January after that.

Jordan Ayew, Wilfried Zaha and a couple of defenders have to be on the potential shortlist to bring into the squad.

My GameWeek 13 Team

Injuries have just been getting the better of my Fantasy team in recent weeks and that forced me into making the change from Ederson to David De Gea two weeks ago.

The international break wasn't very kind to my team with doubts about Andrew Robertson and both Callum Hudson-Odoi and Josh King also suffering.

I really don't want to take a hit right now and so I have to try and manage what transfers I can make and that means going into GW13 with a potential of being short of a starting XI.

There had to be at least one transfer used this week to try and avoid that fate, but I have a clear plan in place and that means I am not going to be too rush right now.

David De Gea- Manchester United seemingly concede whenever put under any kind of pressure, but the goalkeeper remains in place.

Andrew Robertson- another team without as many clean sheets as I would have imagined at this stage of the season. Robertson still provides an attacking threat and may be able to shake off an ankle injury in time for this one.

Benjamin Mendy- he was surprisingly a healthy scratch against Liverpool, but Manchester City's defensive performance was far from ideal. The Frenchman could be back in the starting line up this week.

Caglar Soyuncu- Brighton away is far from easy, but Leicester City have three clean sheets in a row.

John Lundstram- I think the game against Manchester United might be more eventful than what the layers believe. Using Lundstram means having a midfielder rather than the designated defender he is.

Anthony Martial- the Manchester United Number 9 has sparked a return to scoring goals for the club.

Sadio Mane- in the form Mane is in, you can't afford to be without him.

Raheem Sterling (C)- it wasn't the best international break for Sterling having got into it with Joe Gomez which led to a one game suspension. Should mean the England winger is fresh enough for this one and I am going to Captain him in what could be a high-scoring game against Chelsea.

Youri Tielemans- a tough game at Brighton, but Tielemans with every chance of an assist or a goal.

Andreas Pereira- this will surprise many, including those who I speak to about Manchester United on a regular basis, but Andreas Pereira is going to be starting more often than not while Paul Pogba is out.

In the position he is being asked to play, Pereira is set for potential returns in goals and assists even if he is not the long-term answer for United fans. With the games coming up, he looks a no brainer for me and being a lot cheaper than Callum Hudson-Odoi.

Tammy Abraham- Chelsea should head to the Etihad Stadium with more ambition than the last two managers. With the home team looking vulnerable defensively, I don't mind playing Abraham (although I don't have a lot of choices).

Bench- Michael McGovern, Fiyaki Tomori (playing at Manchester City, but also my only fit sub), Josh King (injured), Xande Silva (injured).

College Football Week 13 Picks 2017 (November 23-25)

It is the start of rivalry week in the College Football regular season and this is the last chance for many teams to impress or knock off a rival bidding for big things in the remainder of the year.

We have only got a couple of the Championship Games set in stone and a number of Divisions will be decided with the two contending teams facing one another in Week 14 with the big one in the Iron Bowl that will decide the SEC West.

It's going to be a really fun week which covers three days as the Thanksgiving Weekend gives the Colleges a chance to play Friday day football as well as on Saturday.

The College Football Week 13 Picks will be on this thread and come out over the next couple of days.


Miami Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: The ACC Championship Game has already been set when the Miami Hurricanes take on the Clemson Tigers, but there are other big prizes in play for the Hurricanes. Winning out would mean a spot in the College Football Play Off next month and the Hurricanes have shown they have plenty of heart and desire when coming from a big hole to knock off the Virginia Cavaliers last week.

The Hurricanes can't make another poor start against the Pittsburgh Panthers who have improved in recent weeks and only narrowly were beaten by the Virginia Tech Hokies in Week 12. They put in a big effort into that game as they needed to win out to have a chance of becoming Bowl eligible, so I do wonder if the Panthers may just have lost some focus for the final game of the regular season.

Being able to spoil a season for an opponent should at least make the Pittsburgh players want to perform in their final home game, but emotionally they have had a big let down missing out on a Bowl game for the first time in a decade. Now they also have to play against one of the better Defensive teams in the ACC and one who have thrived on being able to spark the rest of the team.

It was a big Defensive effort which helped the Hurricanes turn around their deficit to Virginia last week and Pittsburgh should find themselves in some tough spots in this one too. The Panthers had some difficulty running the ball last week and the Miami Defensive Line have prided themselves on being able to force teams into third and long situations when their Defense can really begin to make some big plays.

Darrin Cole has had a strong season at Running Back, but it may be difficult to end his home campaign with another big day if the Hurricanes show up on the Defensive Line. It could mean pressure on Kenny Pickett who may take over from Ben DiNucci at Quarter Back from the start after coming in and performing respectively last week.

Pickett is being faced by a strong Miami Secondary who have been able to make some big plays and turn the ball over, and that has to be a concern with the inexperience the Panthers could be going with. Playing from third and long will also mean the struggles of the Pittsburgh Offensive Line in pass protection could show up with Miami very capable of getting to the Quarter Back. That pressure has led to the mistakes that the Secondary have picked off and all in all it feels like a tough day in the office for the Panthers.

Where Pittsburgh may feel they have a chance to at least keep this competitive is the way they have been playing Defensively in recent games. They've found the formula up front to stop the run after struggling for much of the season while that has also meant an improvement in the pass Defense with the Secondary capable of making a few stops from third and long.

The run Defense will be challenged this week though as the Miami Hurricanes continue to churn out plenty of yards on the ground thanks in part to having a mobile Quarter Back who is willing to make plays with his legs. It could be the key to the entire outcome of this game as the team who dominates the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball are likely going to have the success in the overall game.

If Miami are able to get the run going as they have been all season, I think the Hurricanes can pull away with their strong Defensive efforts likely to lead to a couple of turnovers. Running the ball also keeps Malik Rosier in manageable down and distance and I think that is a key for the Quarter Back who showed he can make plays through the air when not forced into tough downs and distance.

Rosier has to take care of the ball, but he has shown he can exploit some of the holes that still remain in the Pittsburgh Secondary and I like the Hurricanes here.

Playing in the cold conditions is a difficult challenge for Miami at this time of the year, but a team who can run the ball and stop the run as well as they can are built to play in December and January. The Panthers also have to deal with being knocked out of Bowl eligibility last week and the Hurricanes are 4-0 against the spread in their last four visits to Pittsburgh.

The Panthers also 1-5 against the spread in their last six hosting a team with a winning record on the road and 7-19 against the spread in their last twenty-six at home. I will back the Miami Hurricanes to win this one by a couple of Touchdowns and cover the spread.


South Florida Bulls @ UCF Knights Pick: This is a big rivalry game and it is going to determine whether the South Florida Bulls or the UCF Knights are playing in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game next week.

The Knights have the better record and also have the chance of appearing in one of the big Bowl Games in the next month if they can win out.

However I do think the Bulls have the ability to challenge them on both sides of the ball. With that in mind I think South Florida are under-rated here and are receiving far too many points.

They should be able to run the ball effectively to control the clock and I think the Bulls can play enough solid Defense to rattle the Knights. I actually think there is every chance South Florida wins this game outright so taking them with the points is the way to go.


Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: There is a lot on the line for both of these teams with the Georgia Bulldogs hoping to remain in contention for a College Football Play Off berth and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets still trying to earn the one win which will make them Bowl eligible.

The rivalry just adds spice to this game in the final week of the regular season.

Expect to see both teams looking to run the ball for much of the afternoon and the ones who are able to do that more effectively are going to win the game. The Yellow Jackets have a triple option Offense which can be difficult to prepare for, but the Georgia Bulldogs play them every season and that should give them every chance to win the battle at the lie of scrimmage.

It is never an easy game when you play a rival who wants to play spoiler and that is where the Bulldogs have to be careful. That issue becomes more difficult with the Georgia Tech players desperate to get to the Bowl game of their own and it will be up to the Bulldogs Defensive Line to play at a high level and make sure they limit the damage done through the air.

On the other side of the ball I would expect the Bulldogs to establish both Nick Chubb and Sonny Michel against a Yellow Jackets team who have struggled against the run all season. Now they face one of the best rushing teams in the nation and I do think Georgia should be able to move the ball up and down the field for much of the day as they did against the Kentucky Wildcats last week.

Neither Quarter Back will be hoping to be too involved in this one as both teams look to run the ball as much as possible, but that is where Georgia do still have the edge and I like the Bulldogs even as a big road favourite.

Georgia are 8-0 against the spread in their last eight games at Georgia Tech. They are also 7-1 against the spread in their last eight on the road, and while the Yellow Jackets have some strong numbers of their own I do like the Bulldogs here.

The Clemson Tigers won by 14 here and I think Georgia Tech have had some disappointing losses of late which has to have affected the confidence. I will look for the Georgia Bulldogs to cover the spread in their march towards the SEC Championship Game and keep alive their hopes of making it into the top four of the College Football Play Off Rankings.


Alabama Crimson Tide @ Auburn Tigers Pick: The SEC West Division is up for grabs in the Iron Bowl on Saturday and this will also mean a chance to play for the SEC Championship and a shot to get into the College Football Play Off. It is quite a simple situation for both Alabama Crimson Tide and the Auburn Tigers with the losing team likely out of contention for a final four berth.

There is no love lost between these teams and this has the makings of another classic to rival the 2013 game which was won on a returned Field Goal attempt by the Auburn Tigers. That was the last time Auburn won in this series, but they are at home, playing well and I like the Tigers to keep this one close.

The key to the outcome of this game is going to be on the line of scrimmage where both Alabama and Auburn have been able to run the ball very well, but face strong Defensive Lines who pride themselves on shutting down teams on the ground. I think both teams will feel they can have some success running the ball, but I am not sure there will be much consistency despite the fact that both teams will continue trying to establish a run game.

Out of the two teams, I do think Auburn may have slightly better success on the ground against the injuries that the Crimson Tide have suffered on the Defensive side of the ball. That is going to be so important for them because I give the considerable edge to the Crimson Tide when it will come to throwing the ball.

Jalen Hurts is a Quarter Back that doesn't make many mistakes and he is mobile enough to make some plays on the ground too. However the Offensive Line has made it difficult to give Hurts a lot of time and the Auburn pass rush should be able to rattle him if they can keep the Crimson Tide in third and long spots for much of the day.

It has been much harder to pass on the Alabama Secondary than it has on the Auburn one and that is why the task for the Tigers is to make sure the run is established.

Alabama are 4-2 against the spread in the last six against Auburn, but I do like the home underdog who have knocked off the unbeaten Georgia Bulldogs here two weeks ago. Now they should be plenty confident of beating the Alabama Crimson Tide considering the injuries the Crimson Tide are dealing with.

I can only see this being a close and competitive game and I will back the Auburn Tigers with the points in this one.


Wisconsin Badgers @ Minnesota Golden Gophers Pick: Things are beginning to become clear for the Wisconsin Badgers who may be unbeaten but have not had the faith of the Play Off Committee when it comes to their Ranking. No one in Wisconsin should be overly concerned about that because they have been punished for what is perceived to be a weak schedule, but they have already confirmed their spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and winning out will result in a Play Off berth.

Putting together impressive wins will help and the Badgers have been doing that in recent weeks and I do think they have every chance of putting another in the books this week.

There will be plenty of motivation in the Minnesota Golden Gophers side of the ball too as they are still a win away from becoming Bowl eligible. However it has been a tough road over the last few weeks for the Golden Gophers in PJ Fleck's first season as Head Coach and that has seen Minnesota drop six of their last eight games.

It is going to be a real challenge for the Golden Gophers to do enough Offensively to give Wisconsin something to worry about. Playing against one of the best Defensive units in the nation won't help and the problems begin up front as the Golden Gophers are unlikely to be able to run the ball even close to as efficiently as they have in recent games.

Being unable to run the ball is not going to end well for Minnesota whose Offensive Line has had problems in pass protection and now face one of the strongest pass rushes out there. It feels like Minnesota will struggle for any Offensive consistency and turnovers could also be an issue for them.

On the other line of scrimmage, the Wisconsin Badgers Offensive Line is likely going to push around the Minnesota Defensive Line and that should see them rip off plenty of long gains on the ground. The Badgers have been very strong rushing anyway and Minnesota have allowed 5.7 yards per carry over their last three games with almost 240 yards per game given up on the ground.

That will just ease the pressure on Alex Hornibrook who has not played well at Quarter Back but who has seen his mistakes papered over by this run. While Hornibrook can make some plays, he is very much going to be an afterthought in this game with the Badgers expected to keep most of the plays on the ground and play some strong Defense to win this one.

In recent years the underdog has gotten the better of this series, but I don't think that will happen here. Wisconsin need to keep winning and impressing so I don't think they take the foot off the gas in this one and they are 9-1 against the spread in the last ten road games.

PJ Fleck has gotten players up for these games as the underdog, but it is a work in progress at Minnesota and I will look for the Wisconsin Badgers to make some big plays and cover a big number on the road.


The rest of the Week 13 Picks can be found below.

MY PICKS: Miami Hurricanes - 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
South Florida Bulls + 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 11 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 17 Points @ 2.00 Coral (1 Unit)
Northwestern Wildcats - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Colorado Buffaloes + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekend Football Picks 2013 (November 23-25)

Finally the Premier League is back in action this weekend and we can get ready for a crazy six weeks where the games come thick and fast as we get closer to the festive period. This is the time when we begin to separate the teams into the blocks they are going to be in for the rest of the season, while we will also see the World Cup draw for Brazil next summer and the Champions League last 16 draw.

The League will take shape over the coming weeks which makes points all the more important now and it should be a lot of fun for all the fans of the clubs.


Everton v Liverpool Pick: Coming back off an international break can affect teams in different ways, particularly the big sides that have seen players travel all over the world for their national teams.

That is one of the reasons that I can't quite pull the trigger on backing Liverpool to win yet another Merseyside derby at the home of their local rivals, while recent form also indicates this will be another close fought match.

Everton have been playing well under Roberto Martinez and have also shown some defensive discipline that isn't always associated with the Spaniard in charge as they have 3 clean sheets in a row. It is a big ask for them to get another in a game where they will be urged forward by the home crowd, especially with Daniel Sturridge and Luis Suarez likely to start as a tandem again.

This has been a fixture that Liverpool have enjoyed in recent seasons and they have scored plenty of goals at Goodison Park. In fact, they have scored twice in 5 of their last 6 visits to this ground and ha also scored at least 2 goals in 3 straight away games in the Premier League before the defeat at Arsenal.

While Everton have been better defensively, they did concede twice to Newcastle United at home and I think backing Liverpool to do the same at odds against looks the call.


Newcastle United v Norwich City Pick: Backing an inconsistent side like Newcastle United at odds-on is never much fun for the heart, but I do think they can pick up their third League win in a row on current form.

The international break has potentially snapped the momentum they had after wins over Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur, but Newcastle United have been scoring freely of late at home and should become the latest team to see off Norwich City.

There is no doubt that Norwich don't travel particularly well and they have been conceding too many goals in their recent away games. With Loic Remy in the form he is in, I would expect Newcastle United to continue their recent streak of scoring at least 2 goals at home and that should be enough to make the odds pay and bring in a home win.


Stoke City v Sunderland Pick: I have been impressed with the way Sunderland have begun to pick up results, but it has to be noted that they still look a little more vulnerable away from home. Ill disciple cost them a chance of picking up a result at Hull City in their sole away game under Gus Poyet and they will have to perform better if they are to win here at Stoke.

This is also a game that Mark Hughes would have circled as one that Stoke should win and I can imagine this being a tense afternoon for the fans in attendance.

It may be November, but points from games like these can prove invaluable in May and there is every chance that we don't see a goal scored as neither team has been that productive in front of goal.

However, I have a feeling that Stoke may prove to be a little too physical and find a way to win this one and they look worth chancing at odds against.


West Ham United v Chelsea Pick: We saw a couple of poor performances from Chelsea in the Premier League before the international break, but that two week gap between games could be critical for them to turn around their form. Chelsea have a run of games where they would expect to pick up a lot of points and that begins with this difficult game at West Ham United.

West Ham and Sam Allardyce have regularly upset the 'big' clubs when they visit Upton Park. They may have lost 1-3 to Manchester City here, but that game had become tense and difficult for the away side when West Ham pulled a goal back to make it 1-2 and really get the fans behind the team.

The lack of goals is a concern for West Ham if they are to spring the shock result, but I certainly expect them to make this a very difficult game for Chelsea and I expect them to get forward and try to create chances.

Chelsea have looked vulnerable at the back in recent games so I wouldn't be surprised if West Ham do have chances, but I also expect the away side to create goal-scoring opportunities themselves. This has the potential for entertainment for the neutrals and I will back at least 3 goals to be shared by the sides.


Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is a big game for both of these clubs and a chance to lay down a marker for a busy calendar that is coming up for both, but I have to say I have a lot more belief in Manchester City being a dangerous title challenger than I have in Tottenham Hotspur.

Spurs may only have conceded 1 goal away from home this season, but I can't see them having enough success to keep Manchester City from scoring in this one and I do think the home side are going to come out firing.

The absence of Vincent Kompany is a concern for City, but I think Andre Villas-Boas is too cautious with the team that he picks and I think he will set Spurs up to defend deep and hope to catch City on the counter-attack. However, the problem for Villas-Boas is I don't think the defenders he usually puts in the field are good enough to contain all of the attacking options City have and I feel this game will be a wake up call for all the fans of the North London club.

I have had a gut feeling all weekend that City are going to come out and make a real statement of their intention for the coming weeks and I believe they will punish a Spurs side that hasn't made the best use of the all the signings they made in the summer. Without Gareth Bale, there is a creative spark missing especially as Villas-Boas is putting out a team that has speed but little end product.

I would love to be wrong, but I think City are going to win this one by a couple of goals at least.


Cardiff City v Manchester United Pick: Cardiff City have been plagued with the inconsistencies that comes with being a promoted side, but their wins over Manchester City and Swansea will give them confidence that they could give Manchester United a competitive game in this one.

On the other hand, Cardiff were out-played by Spurs and Newcastle United here too so they will need to bring their 'A' game if they are to surprise Manchester United.

Manchester United have begun to improve their results in recent weeks and back to back away wins in the Premier League will give them confidence to come here and pick up a vital three points. There is enough attacking talent here to cause problems for Cardiff, but United have also looked vulnerable at the back in games.

United haven't had a clean sheet away from home until the result in Real Sociedad in their last away game, and they have conceded against the likes of Sunderland, Swansea and Fulham on their travels. It wouldn't surprise me if Cardiff add their name to that list in front of a passionate crowd that are going to be completely up for a game of this size.

However, I do think Manchester United are grinding out enough results to pick up the win here, especially with the attacking duo of Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie seemingly reading from the same page. I'll take United to win a game where both teams get the ball in the net.

MY PICKS: Liverpool Goal Crazy: 2-3 Goals @ 2.60 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Newcastle United @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Stoke City @ 2.15 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
West Ham United-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.23 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United to Win @ 3.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

November Update: 9-12, - 3.47 Units (34 Units Staked, - 10.21% Yield)

October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 46-44-1, + 2.05 Units (144 Units Staked, + 1.42% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)