The international breaks are usually a real pain in the backside to deal with for fans as well as managers in the top European Leagues, but I will admit the introduction of the new UEFA Nations League was a real success in the first running of the competition.
The competition will come to a conclusion next June, but it did make the three international breaks in September, October and November more interesting than the usual rubbish the Qualifiers serve up. Those Qualifiers are now condensed into a nine month period beginning in March through to November 2019, and I am sure we will all be bored of some of the mismatches that are presented in those games.
That is where the Nations League made things more even and I thought it was a very positive start to what is going to be a feature on the calendar for the years ahead.
In saying all that, I know I am not the only one who is going to be glad to get the Premier League back as we get set to enter the grind of the festive period. This may not be a fun time for the players, but for the fans the football comes thick and fast through to the second week of January and it is a time for Fantasy Players to begin second guessing managers and the rotations they are set to use.
Making Picks from matches can become a little more haphazard at this time of the season with the short turnarounds between games, but everyone watching and playing has to adapt to the situations with vital points to play for.
With the weekend here, below you can see my Picks from the Premier League fixtures to be played from Saturday through to Monday and I also have my top Fantasy player, and Alternative, from those games.
Brighton v Leicester City Pick: Time can heal all wounds but you have to believe the Leicester City players are still not quite back to normal after the tragic events that saw owner Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha lose his life..
Claude Puel has been speaking to the press and making it clear the players have to try and focus on their jobs and making sure they honour the late owner as best they can. To be fair to the players they have actually played far better than could be expected in the 2 games since the helicopter accident that was witnessed by many of them and Leicester City are unfortunate not to have 2 wins from 2 played.
Last time out Leicester City did everything but score against Burnley as they dominated their visitors on an emotional day at the King Power Stadium. That came a week after winning at Cardiff City and I think Leicester City can edge out a Brighton team who have perhaps been a little lucky to have won back to back games at the Amex Stadium.
On pure chances being created Brighton were perhaps fortunate to beat West Ham United and Wolves without conceding a goal and they are going to be challenged by this Leicester City team.
The home form has to be respected for Brighton, but Leicester City had a solid win here last season and they are certainly good enough to win here again. If they continue to create the chances they have in their last 3 games it will be very difficult to beat Leicester City and I am not convinced this Brighton team are good enough at both ends of the field to do that.
Brighton have earned 10 points from a possible 15 at home this season, but Leicester City have shown they can win away games and I will back The Foxes on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw.
Fantasy Star: James Maddison- he is back from an injury and is a key player from set pieces while also a potential penalty taker.
Alternative: Ben Chilwell- potential assists from a defender can't be ignored and Leicester City have had back to back clean sheets too.
Everton v Cardiff City Pick: You just know Neil Warnock would have loved to have had another Premier League fixture between the Brighton win and the international break just to see if his side could build on the momentum that comes from a late winner.
Two weeks later the euphoria would have died down and Cardiff City players will know they are back into the hard work needed to compete at the Premier League level.
This weekend they travel to Everton who have been performing very well at home with numerous chances being created and the goals have not been too far away. The absence of Gylfi Sigurdsson could be a potential blow to Everton with the Icelandic player being a real key under Marco Silva, but Everton do have enough about them to put Cardiff City under some pressure.
Cardiff City simply have not defended as well as they would have liked at this level and that has seen them exposed to some heavy losses already. Those have come against the very best teams in the Division though and Warnock will be reminding his players that Everton are not up there with Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City.
In saying that there is still a definite edge with the home team who have beaten teams like Fulham, Crystal Palace and Brighton at Goodison Park in the last few weeks. All of those clubs are of similar stature to Cardiff City and it has the feeling of being a tough afternoon for the visitors against an Everton team who have scored two or more goals in 3 straight home League games.
If they score two here I would imagine they would have too much for Cardiff City and I do think Everton are capable of doing that. Even without Sigurdsson, who is a doubt having missed the Iceland games during the two week international break, Everton have some quality players in the final third and I will back the home team to come out of the break and enter the festive period with a strong home win behind them.
Fantasy Star: Richarlison- plays in the Number 9 for Everton these days and scored for Brazil in a friendly last week.
Alternative: Gylfi Sigurdsson- a two week break will be important for the Icelandic midfielder and he has been very strong in Marco Silva's system while also a threat from set pieces.
Fulham v Southampton Pick: The media are going to be loving the appointment made by Fulham now they get to hear from Claudio Ranieri every week, but the Italian is not coming into an easy situation. He will have had some time to work with the players in the squad, but many have been away with their international teams and there doesn't look to be a quick fix at Fulham.
At the moment the club are struggling at both ends of the field and Ranieri's first task will be to make sure they are defensively much sounder than they have been.
That does take time though and even if title winning Leicester City team needed around four months to get used to the defensive schemes Ranieri had put together. Fulham simply don't have that time after a poor start to the season and this game on Saturday is a huge one for their chances of avoiding the drop even though we are in November.
Failure to beat Southampton ahead of fixtures against Chelsea, Leicester City and Manchester United could see Fulham lose touch with the teams above them very quickly and there is pressure on them to perform.
The same pressure applies to Mark Hughes and his Southampton team who feel they were robbed of three vital points when drawing 1-1 with Watford two weeks ago. A controversial goal was disallowed on the day that would have seen Southampton go 2-0 ahead, but the performance was enough to give Hughes a little more time to try and get things turned around.
A lack of goals is a real concern for a team who could be without Danny Ings and Shane Long this weekend, but Southampton have actually played better than the results would suggest. They are creating enough chances to win games, but poor composure in the final third has really let them down.
I expect Southampton can create more opportunities when they visit Craven Cottage on Saturday, although my enthusiasm for an away win is reduced significantly by the potential impact a new manager can have for Fulham. This is still a team who look like they have the quality to be operating higher up the Premier League table and Ranieri could get an immediate reaction which would be a worry for Southampton fans and backers.
However I do think the chances being created by Southampton have been ignored by the poor finishing. If they had even taken half of the opportunities they have been creating they would have a few more goals than the 8 they have totalled so far this season and I do think Fulham will present them with chances in this one before Claudio Ranieri can really work on the defensive shape.
Backing Southampton on the Asian Handicap at least returns the stake in the event of a draw and I like them as the slight underdog at Craven Cottage where they beat Fulham in the FA Cup back in January.
Fantasy Star: Charlie Austin- will be leading the line for Southampton and has a decent finish on him. Can make headlines for a differing reason than two weeks ago.
Alternative: Aleksandr Mitrovic- scored for Serbia on international duty and will be Claudio Ranieri's focal point for the Fulham attack. Always a threat from set pieces.
Manchester United v Crystal Palace Pick: A difficult period of fixtures are now behind Manchester United and it is time for the team to start picking up some consistency and putting the wins together if Jose Mourinho is going to be proved right about where the club are going to stand ahead of the opening of the January transfer window.
A couple of weeks ago Mourinho insisted Manchester United can get into the top four of the Premier League, but there is a 7 point gap to trim in the weeks ahead. The fixture list certainly looks a kinder one for Manchester United in the weeks ahead with a number of games to be played against teams in the bottom half of the table, but they have to take advantage of that.
So far Manchester United have been far from convincing and injuries have not been helping the situation. You can't question the heart of the players or the determination to play for the manager having seen Manchester United come from behind to wins games against Newcastle United, Bournemouth and Juventus while also securing a draw with Chelsea in a game they trailed.
The fans will be hoping they can get on the front foot out of the international break with two big games at Old Trafford to come this week before the trip to Southampton.
First up is a Crystal Palace team who have lost 6 of their last 7 games in all competitions and who have been beaten in their last 4 away games. A defensive injury crisis has just reared up at the wrong time for Roy Hodgson although the majority of those players could be back in action next weekend if they cannot be involved at Old Trafford.
It will make it difficult to get a result on a ground where Crystal Palace have lost their last 5 visits and I do think Manchester United will prove too strong for The Eagles this weekend too.
Manchester United have been scoring plenty of goals in recent weeks and that should see them have success against what could be a makeshift backline for Crystal Palace. If Wilfried Zaha cannot make the trip to the North West it will even more difficult for Crystal Palace to offer a counter attacking threat and I think Manchester United can get this week off to a good, positive start with what could be the most comfortable home win of the season so far.
Fantasy Star: Anthony Martial- his 'expected goals' stats suggest this run of strong form won't be sustained, but the Frenchman is well rested and is a potential penalty taker.
Alternative: Victor Lindelof- Manchester United's lack of clean sheets are well documented, but this is the start of a decent stretch of games for them and the Swede has looked more and more assured at the heart of the defence.
Watford v Liverpool Pick: At this stage of the season there really isn't a priority for teams in the Premier League and Champions League as they are trying to progress in both. With that in mind I do think the looming away tie at Paris Saint-Germain is going to be a potential distraction for the Liverpool players as they could potentially be left needing to beat Napoli by a wide margin to progress in the event of a loss in the French capital.
However Jurgen Klopp will know they can't take their eyes off the ball in the Premier League where Manchester City look like a team that are not going to be dropping too many points through the course of the campaign. With 2 points between Liverpool and the leaders, The Reds can't afford to drop points at Vicarage Road if they are going to genuinely compete for the title.
That may sound harsh considering Tottenham Hotspur have lost here already, but both Manchester United and Bournemouth won and Manchester City will be expected to do the same when they visit in a couple of weeks time. It means there are not excuses for Liverpool, but they have not found it easy in this part of Hertfordshire in recent seasons and Watford are playing with a confidence that makes them dangerous.
As much as Liverpool have improved defensively, they have only kept 2 clean sheets in 8 away games in all competitions this season. Both have come in the Premier League, but even in those games Liverpool have had to ride their luck at times and I do think Watford have enough in the final third to really cause some problems for their visitors.
While Liverpool have not been as threatening at the other end of the field as they seemingly were last season, this is still a team who create and score goals on their travels so it is hard to see Watford keeping them out.
Both teams look like they could score here although matching the 3-3 last season is going to be a tough task. I do think there will be chances at both ends though and backing both teams to score once looks a decent enough price considering how things have gone for both Watford and Liverpool at home/away respectively so far and in recent weeks.
Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- might not be hitting the heights of last season, but still scoring plenty of goals and scored both at home and away against Watford last season.
Alternative: Roberto Pereyra- if Watford are going to cause problems for Liverpool this is the player most likely to create or score for The Hornets.
West Ham United v Manchester City Pick: About the only thing that could be seen as a negative for Manchester City approaching the festive period is the number of injuries they have suffered with Kevin De Bruyne basically missing the majority of the campaign. Bernardo Silva's knock picked up on international duty is a blow, but this is a squad that is capable of picking up the slack for missing members and I don't foresee either potential absence from slowing down Pep Guardiola's men.
The comfortable win over Manchester United two weeks ago means Manchester City are clear at the top of the Premier League table but still being pushed by Liverpool and Chelsea. The next six weeks will be seen as a chance to really take control of the title race as Manchester City face both those teams before the FA Cup Third Round in early January.
Focus has been key for the players as they have not really overlooked any opponent they have faced and I expect that to be the case on Saturday.
On their day West Ham United can be a handful as Manchester United and Chelsea have found out at the London Stadium already this season, but this is a team that hasn't matched up well with Manchester City.
Since moving into the London Stadium West Ham United have lost 0-5, 0-4 and 1-4 against Manchester City and the only positive is that they have reduced the margin each time.
Manuel Pellegrini will have some insight of some of the players at his former club, and his new team should be motivated to perform for the manager, but it is a tall task for West Ham United. They look like a team who could be really susceptible to the pace Manchester City have in the forward areas and there is enough quality in the away team even without De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva to find cracks in a defence that has conceded three goals to Burnley and Huddersfield Town in their last couple of League games.
West Ham United have beaten Manchester United and drawn with Chelsea here, but Tottenham Hotspur won twice at the London Stadium in the Premier League and League Cup. While the home team will produce a big effort to try and knock Manchester City out of their stride or to catch them cold out of the international break, I think the mental demons of recent heavy home losses to this opponent won't be easy to shake.
Injuries are hurting the home team too and I don't think they will be able to contain a Manchester City team who could have Leroy Sane, Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, David Silva and Sergio Aguero all involved. I will back the defending Champions to keep their strong run going and I will back them to win by two or more goals on the day.
Fantasy Star: David Silva- with both Kevin De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva out, David Silva's hot form is going to be important to Manchester City. Didn't play here last season, but has scored in his previous three games against West Ham United including on two visits to the London Stadium.
Alternative: Leroy Sane- with Benjamin Mendy ruled out for three months, Leroy Sane's position in the starting eleven could have re-opened and he has a stellar record against 'weaker' Premier League opponents.
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: The biggest game of the Premier League weekend comes from Wembley Stadium as Tottenham Hotspur host rivals Chelsea with just one point separating these two teams and both chasing leaders Manchester City.
The playing surface at Wembley Stadium is far from in ideal condition, but it didn't play too badly when England hosted Croatia there last Sunday and I don't think the pitch is half as cut up as when the NFL hosted a game there a day before Tottenham Hotspur hosted Manchester City.
Neither team will be able to use a poor playing surface as an excuse and matches between Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea have been very closely contested in recent years. Last season both teams were able to beat the other once, but surprisingly that happened in the away game for both Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur.
Spurs have lost their last 4 games against Chelsea that have been played at Wembley Stadium including last season and they have not played as well at this ground this time around as they did in the 2017/18 campaign. Barcelona, Liverpool and Manchester City have all beaten Tottenham Hotspur here already over the last couple of months and Chelsea's away form has been strong.
However I do think Tottenham Hotspur's come from behind win over PSV Eindhoven will have given the players renewed confidence when playing at Wembley Stadium. They will need to take that into this game and pressure Chelsea, but the defensive injuries have just left the home team looking a little vulnerable at times.
Chelsea are certainly playing with enough belief to expose those issues and I think this will be a decent game of football on Saturday afternoon. The chances Chelsea have been creating makes them dangerous, but they have yet to truly convince defensively and Tottenham Hotspur look as healthy in the final third as they have at any time this season.
5 of the last 6 games between these two London rivals have ended with at least three goals shared out and I think that will be the outcome of this one too.
Fantasy Star: Dele Alli- it hasn't been a great season for Dele Alli thanks to injury, but he is back fit and healthy and has a strong record against Chelsea.
Alternative: Eden Hazard- boring selection but Eden Hazard remains a vital part of the Chelsea attack and could have chances in what is expected to be a game featuring goals.
Bournemouth v Arsenal Pick: The first of the live offerings from the Premier League on Sunday comes from the Vitality Stadium where Bournemouth host Arsenal in a battle between two of the current top six.
It is a real testimony to the work being done by Eddie Howe that Bournemouth are as high as they are in a season where so many had tipped them for relegation. Back to back League defeats has just slowed down some of the momentum that had been built up, but Howe will have had two weeks to get his tactics right for this home League game.
In the last couple of years Bournemouth have proved to be a thorn in the Arsenal side with a draw and a win over them at the Vitality Stadium. Even in the drawn game Bournemouth were leading 3-0 before collapsing and they are certainly playing well enough going forward to challenge an Arsenal defence that has looked vulnerable throughout the season.
Wins can disguise the defensive frailties and that was certainly the case a month ago, but 4 draws in 5 games in all competitions has just underlined the point. Two weeks ago they needed a very late goal to earn a draw with Wolves at the Emirates Stadium, but Arsenal have shown they have plenty of goals in the side and that has seen them produce clinical performances in front of goal.
This weekend they could be without Alexandre Lacazette though and Arsenal may just be short of options in the final third. It is a concern until the January transfer window opens up and I think they look plenty short to win this game at a ground where Manchester United needed a very late goal to produce the victory.
With the problems at the back Bournemouth could certainly take advantage in what promises to be a decent game of football. Both teams will feel they are better going forward than defending and I think an attacking game could develop with at least four goals shared out between the teams.
Arsenal have played 5 away Premier League games this season and four or more goals have been shared out 4 times. There hasn't been as many goals in Bournemouth games at the Vitality Stadium, but the 6 League games have averaged three goals per game and that has included a goalless draw with Southampton.
An early goal could really get things going and backing four or more goals to be shared out at odds against is the selection.
Fantasy Star: Callum Wilson- scored for England in an international friendly and should have some great chances against this Arsenal defence.
Alternative: Alexandre Lacazette- was given a chance to recover from injury over the last two weeks and was in good goal-scoring form for a team that will create chances at the Vitality Stadium.
Wolves v Huddersfield Town Pick: The second live televised game on Sunday afternoon in the Premier League looks to be one that Huddersfield Town have to be targeting if they have serious ambitions of wanting to avoid the drop.
After back to back games where they have produced a positive result, Huddersfield Town should come out of the international break with some momentum. They have also tended to be pretty tough away from home, Manchester City aside, but Huddersfield Town were disappointing in their 3-0 defeat at Watford.
However they have not lost back to back away games in the Premier League since the end of March and that has to give David Wagner some belief his team can earn a result here.
Wolves have been in a poor patch of form but they have continued to play some good football and you would say that only the home loss to Watford was a disappointing all around day for the team. Other defeats at Brighton and at home to Tottenham Hotspur saw Wolves play really well and they were very unfortunate to lose both of those games, while they could, and perhaps should, have won at Arsenal two weeks ago.
It can be difficult for newly promoted teams to get out of a spin once they hit one in the Premier League, but Nuno Espirito Santo has to believe Wolves will win more games than they lose if they can continue to perform like they have been. The injuries to the two wing backs is a blow and losing both would hurt, but Wolves have shown they have enough in the attacking third to create chances and give Huddersfield Town missing two of their defenders a tough time.
The poor home record against Huddersfield Town is a concern for Wolves who have lost 5 of the last 6 against them at Molineux including when they last met two seasons ago. However the exception was a 3-0 win for Wolves in the 2015/16 season so I don't expect a new look team to be overly concerned by the record against Huddersfield Town and I will back the home team to win by a comfortable margin in this one.
Fantasy Star: Matt Doherty- I can't move away from a defender who has a high chance for a clean sheet, but also offers an attacking threat that rivals Marcos Alonso's at Chelsea in recent seasons.
Alternative: Raul Jimenez- if you like strikers who want to assist rather than score, or so it feels, then the Mexican is your man and he does knit things together for Wolves in the final third.
Burnley v Newcastle United Pick: There is much to play for on Monday Night Football when Burnley face Newcastle United.
Both teams are looking for a vital three points to move clear of the relegation battle that is developing and that should mean there is a real intensity to this fixture.
It is hard to really know how this game is going to go- Newcastle United had some real momentum behind them going into the international break as they managed to ride their fortune to some positive results. They will need to be a little better defensively if they are going to avoid the drop, but the same can absolutely be said for Burnley who have been giving up far too many chances for teams this season.
However both attacks have not really flourished as the managers would have hoped and so chances may not be as frequent in this game as they have been in recent Burnley and Newcastle United fixtures.
The Magpies have been really tight away from home with a total of eight goals scored in their 5 away games in the Premier League. Newcastle United have a poor recent record at Turf Moor and they don't score a lot of goals which should give Burnley every chance of earning the win.
However Burnley have been far from consistent this season and they have already failed to beat the likes of Watford and Huddersfield Town here. It has been a real battle for them defensively and Burnley are missing some key players in that unit which can be exposed, even by a limited attacking outfit like Newcastle United.
Going forward Burnley should have some success too and I think the layers are perhaps underestimating the chance of seeing both teams score in this one. As poor as these two teams have been when it comes to the attacking side of things, they are facing two defences who have really been struggling and that includes a Newcastle United team who have 2 clean sheets in their last 3 away games.
Both of those games at Crystal Palace and Southampton saw the home team miss some absolute sitters and Burnley have scored in 3 of their 5 home games this season in the Premier League.
I think both of these teams should have chances in this one and the 1-1 final score is a real player. I will be looking for both teams to score here against defences who have given up big chances to opponents and that looks an intriguing price.
Fantasy Star: Joe Hart- urgh, this is a tough game to pick someone from because it really could be anyone and no one stands out. However Burnley have been struggling defensively and Joe Hart will have to be a key performer to secure a result here.
Alternative: Solomon Rondon- two quality goals two weeks ago will have given Rondon confidence and Burnley have been vulnerable at the back while missing key centre halves.
MY PICKS: Leicester City 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-Liverpool Both Teams to Score @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Arsenal Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley-Newcastle United Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
November Update: 14-22, - 16.86 Units (72 Units Staked, - 23.42% Yield)
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Showing posts with label November 24-26. Show all posts
Showing posts with label November 24-26. Show all posts
Saturday, 24 November 2018
Friday, 24 November 2017
Weekend Football Picks 2017 (November 24-26)
There are two quick rounds of Premier League Football to come in the next few days and I am going to continue splitting them into the Weekend and Midweek Football threads.
It does mean managers have to rotate the squads and make sure players are fresh for the big games ahead and that is something that you should take note of.
You can read my short piece about Manchester United that I wrote seven days ago here.
Then it is on to the picks for the weekend.
West Ham United v Leicester City Pick: Both Leicester City and West Ham United have recently made changes in the manager's office, but while The Foxes made an immediate upturn in results, West Ham United are hoping to David Moyes can have the same impact for them.
Moyes was not an inspiring choice of manager as far as the fans or the media will go and I certainly don't think he 'deserves' a shot back in the Premier League after three really poor performances as manager of Manchester United, Real Sociedad and Sunderland. His experiences at Everton are still giving Moyes something owners look for, but failing at West Ham United could easily be the end of his managerial career.
Having another week to work with the players should mean a better performance against Leicester City than the one produced at Watford, although there were some positive signs. On another day West Ham United would have found the goal at key times to have a chance of a positive result, but defensively they look like a team that are going to concede plenty of goals.
I would expect Leicester City to create chances with the spaces they should be able to operate in away from home. Prior to the loss to Manchester City, Leicester City had scored at least twice in 4 straight games in all competitions including in their last couple of away games at Swansea City and Stoke City.
Like the home team, I do think Leicester City are far from a secure defensive operation and there is every chance this is a game that will feature goals.
Before last week Leicester City might have been a slight underdog here which would have made them a tempting pick this weekend, but they are odds on even when backing them on the 'draw no bet' market. With a strong recent record against West Ham United, I imagine Leicester City will have their supporters, but their own defensive issues puts me off backing them here.
Instead I think backing there being at least three goals could pay off at a slightly better price than backing Leicester City 'draw no bet'. West Ham United still look very insecure defensively, but they should be able to create chances too and 8 of the last 10 between these two clubs have ended with at least three goals shared out.
4 of the last 5 at West Ham United have also featured at least three goals and goals have flowed in recent West Ham United home and Leicester City away games.
Look for goals on the latest edition of Friday Night Football.
Crystal Palace v Stoke City Pick: While there have been some plaudits for the way Crystal Palace have been playing in recent weeks, Roy Hodgson would much rather be criticised and have seen his side earn more points. They have been a little unfortunate to not back up the win over Chelsea with at least one more, but the confidence looks to be returning to the side.
Perhaps just as importantly is the improving health of the squad which means Hodgson has the chance to play all of his main attacking talent this weekend after Christian Benteke returned. With the way Crystal Palace have been playing, you have to think a second win of the season is not too far away although backing them at short odds is not for me.
Crystal Palace have won 3 in a row at home against Stoke City which has to be considered, but any team who has defended as poorly as they have at times can be hard to trust at just over odds against. That is particularly the case when you think Stoke City have also been improving and have begun to create chances at a good rate.
Mark Hughes has seen his side score at least twice in 4 of their last 6 games and the creative players like Xherdan Shaqiri are in strong form. It is hard to imagine Stoke City not being able to create chances here at Selhurst Park and scoring goals against Crystal Palace here, although Stoke City's own defensive flaws are likely to be exposed.
The chance of seeing at least three goals in this one is actually a bigger price than Crystal Palace to win, but I think the latter will need at least two goals to secure a victory. Both teams should be able to score at least once and the 1-1 draw is perhaps the biggest concern to the pick, but goals have been flowing for both clubs in recent weeks.
With the defensive problems both teams have been having I think there will be at least three goals shared out between these clubs. That would have been a winner in the last 3 home Crystal Palace games and has also hit in 5 of the last 6 Stoke City games overall.
Both teams have conceded two goals a number of times, but also scored plenty in recent weeks and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks a big price.
Manchester United v Brighton Pick: This is the kind of fixture that Brighton fans would have been dreaming of when coming so close to getting back into the top flight in recent years. There won't be a big expectation of getting a result from the fans who will simply enjoy making the long journey up to Old Trafford, but the players might feel a little more confident.
Brighton are unbeaten in 5 games in the Premier League and they have won at both West Ham United and Swansea City in that time. Of course this is a far different challenge when heading on their travels to face one of the top six teams and Brighton have already comfortably been dismissed at Arsenal where they were beaten 2-0.
Now they have to face a Manchester United team who have been dominant at Old Trafford where they have scored plenty of goals this season. Coming off the disappointment of the 1-0 loss in Basel should refocus the players ahead of a really busy run of games, while Manchester United have to feel good about the chances created in Switzerland as they look to get back to winning ways.
This is a Manchester United team who have shown they can wear down teams at Old Trafford with only Tottenham Hotspur leaving conceding less than two goals. In 4 of their last 6 at Old Trafford Manchester United have managed to hit four goals and they won't take the foot off the gas in this one with goal difference likely to be a potential factor later in the season.
As strong as Brighton have been in recent games, they will try and shut up shop and frustrate Manchester United, but the home team have shown they can break through against defensively minded teams this time around. Brighton have conceded twice at Leicester City and Arsenal and I think Manchester United are more than capable of surpassing that number.
I was tempted in backing the home team to cover the Asian Handicap, but the full pay out is only received in a three goal win. Recent weeks have seen Manchester United a little more vulnerable at the back than earlier this season so Brighton have a chance to play their part, and you can get a similar price to United on the Asian Handicap as you can if backing them to win a game that features at least three goals.
That looks more tempting than backing a big Manchester United win and I will back the home team to win in a game that has at least three goals shared out.
Newcastle United v Watford Pick: There has to be some distraction at Vicarage Road with the Everton bid to prise away Marco Silva as their new manager, but so far Watford have continued to perform and I don't think that changes this weekend. At the time of writing Marco Silva remains the Watford manager and they look a little under-rated heading to St James' Park for this latest Premier League game.
Newcastle United have lost 3 in a row themselves, but I think too much stock is being placed in the fact they have had stronger results at home. Last time out Newcastle United were beaten 0-1 by Bournemouth, while they have needed a late goal to beat Crystal Palace 1-0 before that.
Defensively Rafa Benitez does set up Newcastle United to be tough, but they have lost Jamaal Lascelles to injury and I think that has had an impact in their recent results. Losing the captain at the heart of the defence is tough to replace and Newcastle United have other defensive injuries.
They are also expected to be much more positive at St James' Park and that could play into the counter attacking ability of Watford. This is a team who have scored twice in every away Premier League game this season and I expect they would have been a lot shorter if holding onto their 1-2 lead at Chelsea and 0-2 lead at Everton in two away games Watford have lost prior to this one.
The fact Watford can score those goals is an obvious appeal as Newcastle United have looked a little unsure of themselves in the final third. They should create chances against a Watford defence that has conceded 9 goals in their last 3 away games, but I think it would be a big ask for Newcastle United to beat Watford if the visitors hit their goals mark here.
Like Bournemouth, Watford will have their own chances here and they have played well enough to think they will take those when they come their way. I was tempted to pick Watford to win here, but those recent away collapses have to be a concern from a mental point of view and whether Watford get nervy down the stretch.
However I like the price on Watford avoiding a loss here and I will back them to do that. They can score goals away from home and the win over West Ham United will have restored some confidence that may have been lost before that, while Newcastle United have lost 3 in a row in the League.
Swansea City v Bournemouth Pick: It feels like Premier League clubs are beginning to panic a little earlier than usual this season and five managers have seen their jobs disappear before we have even hit December. That number may easily become six if Paul Clement is not careful as Swansea City have slipped into the bottom three.
Losing 7 of 8 games in all competitions including the last 4 Premier League games will not make Clement sit any easier, while they have been beaten by both Leicester City and Brighton in their last couple at the Liberty Stadium. Swansea City have been struggling for goals which is not a good look when you can't stop conceding and there is some real pressure on Clement to get things right.
Another defeat on Saturday may see Swansea City become the latest club to make a managerial move and they are running into Bournemouth at a tough time.
Eddie Howe has helped Bournemouth onto a run of 4 wins in 5 games and this is a squad of players who have had their confidence restored with those performances. They have started producing more wins and Bournemouth have kept clean sheets in their last couple of games which has to be encouraging for Eddie Howe.
They can earn another win on Saturday and look a big price to do that considering Bournemouth beat Swansea City at home and away last season. However I think the more prudent way to back the away side is on the Asian Handicap at a little under odds against knowing the draw would return the stake.
It is hard to see Swansea City winning this one on their current form, and their last couple of home losses have come against teams who I don't consider better than Bournemouth. With the goals Bournemouth have begun to produce, I think one would be enough to avoid a loss and could be enough to win this game and I will back Bournemouth on the Asian Handicap.
Tottenham Hotspur v West Brom Pick: Tony Pulis has been under pressure for some time with the style of football never giving him much in the goodwill bank from the fans when the results were not being produced. The Baggies were heading one way under his watch and West Brom had to make the decision to look elsewhere.
That means Gary Megson will take charge of West Brom this weekend and I am not sure the fans are going to be enjoying vastly different football. Megson will look to make sure West Brom are hard to beat and frustrate Tottenham Hotspur, but that is much harder to do when the confidence has taken the blows the West Brom players have been suffering.
Now they face a Tottenham Hotspur team who want to make up for the North London derby defeat to Arsenal and who earned a very good win in Dortmund during the week. Harry Kane was back amongst the goals and Tottenham Hotspur had an all around better performance than the one they produced at the Emirates Stadium.
I expect they can use that momentum going into this weekend and Tottenham Hotspur have been winning more games at Wembley Stadium nowadays. The 'curse' has well and truly been removed, although they have yet to truly convince at home when teams set up to defend deep.
I can't imagine that is a big problem for them this weekend as West Brom may just have a hard time picking themselves up after losing their manager. There is some uncertainty there and Tottenham Hotspur should be hungry to try and get back to winning ways in the Premier League.
In recent years West Brom have been a thorn in the side of Tottenham Hotspur, but they did thump them 4-0 at White Hart Lane last season. While they may not get to that margin of victory again, I think Tottenham Hotspur are able to win by a couple of goals on the night and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Liverpool v Chelsea Pick: The big games in the Premier League are coming thick and fast during the busy November and December fixtures and the game of the weekend comes from Anfield where Liverpool take on Chelsea. Two of the top five meeting will always be an important event and both Liverpool and Chelsea know how much the three points will mean.
Both played away from home in the Champions League this past week, but Antonio Conte was once again upset that his Chelsea side have to play a Saturday afternoon game with a day less rest than their opponent. Conte has to be careful that he doesn't give off that negative vibe to his Chelsea players in what is going to be a tough away game at Anfield.
Chelsea have a very strong recent record at Anfield with 6 visits without a defeat, but the last 3 have all ended 1-1 and Liverpool have been playing much better at home in recent weeks. The goals have been flying in, but defensively Liverpool have looked a mess and Chelsea have to feel they can exploit those issues in what looks to be a good game of football.
At Stamford Bridge the goals have tended to come a little easier than they have at Anfield, but this has all the makings of a fixture that will produce at least three goals. Liverpool have been able to get on the front foot at Anfield, but Chelsea will feel they can win this game if they weather the early storm and it will be interesting to see how Antonio Conte will set his team up.
I imagine the system is in place already with Eden Hazard and Alvaro Morata leading the line and Chelsea should have chances on the counter attack throughout this one. However they will have to show some toughness in defence against a rampant Liverpool front four who should all earn a start in this one and picking a winner doesn't look an easy task.
Liverpool have been much stronger at home both in terms of results and defensively, while Chelsea have suffered a couple of poor losses away from home recently. However their record here and style of play should cause Liverpool problems too and I think the recent trend of low scoring games at Anfield may be snapped here.
4 of the last 5 at Anfield have finished under 2.5 goals, but the last 4 have also seen both teams score. I wouldn't put anyone off having a small interest in the 1-1 scoreline which has occurred 3 times in a row between these teams at Anfield, but I do think both are playing very well and we may get another goal from one of the teams in this one.
I will back at least three goals to be shared out here.
Huddersfield Town v Manchester City Pick: The layers are not expecting anything but a fairly comfortable day for Manchester City as they visit Huddersfield Town and it is hard to argue against that.
However anyone steaming into the short odds for a Manchester City win would do well to remember it has only been a few weeks since Huddersfield Town beat Manchester United 2-1 here.
On that day it was a poor performance from Manchester United and a couple of big mistakes that put them in a 2-0 hole, but Manchester City should be well rested and I don't foresee them making those same mistakes. Instead I would imagine they will come out and look to force Huddersfield Town to submit in the same manner others have through Manchester City working the ball around and tiring out their opponents.
It is no surprise that so many of Manchester City's goals have come in the second half with that in mind, but in this one they could get after Huddersfield Town much earlier like Tottenham Hotspur did. Positive starts have been made by Manchester City and I think the likes of Leroy Sane and Gabriel Jesus will be itching to return having been rested during the week.
The attacking threat Manchester City bring should be too much for Huddersfield Town and I think the home team will only have limited chances to play a part in this one. The possession should be dominated by Manchester City and I think Huddersfield Town may struggle to have an impact with a rested Manchester City likely to be putting them under plenty of pressure throughout.
Anything other than a Manchester City win would be a big surprise, and the angle I am going for is the away side winning with a clean sheet. The possession means it can be tough to get after Manchester City, especially with the limited time Huddersfield Town are going to have in this one, and I think it will be tough for the home team.
Manchester City got one last week and I will look for them to win with a clean sheet this week too at a decent looking price.
MY PICKS: West Ham United-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Stoke City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Watford + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bournemouth 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
It does mean managers have to rotate the squads and make sure players are fresh for the big games ahead and that is something that you should take note of.
You can read my short piece about Manchester United that I wrote seven days ago here.
Then it is on to the picks for the weekend.
West Ham United v Leicester City Pick: Both Leicester City and West Ham United have recently made changes in the manager's office, but while The Foxes made an immediate upturn in results, West Ham United are hoping to David Moyes can have the same impact for them.
Moyes was not an inspiring choice of manager as far as the fans or the media will go and I certainly don't think he 'deserves' a shot back in the Premier League after three really poor performances as manager of Manchester United, Real Sociedad and Sunderland. His experiences at Everton are still giving Moyes something owners look for, but failing at West Ham United could easily be the end of his managerial career.
Having another week to work with the players should mean a better performance against Leicester City than the one produced at Watford, although there were some positive signs. On another day West Ham United would have found the goal at key times to have a chance of a positive result, but defensively they look like a team that are going to concede plenty of goals.
I would expect Leicester City to create chances with the spaces they should be able to operate in away from home. Prior to the loss to Manchester City, Leicester City had scored at least twice in 4 straight games in all competitions including in their last couple of away games at Swansea City and Stoke City.
Like the home team, I do think Leicester City are far from a secure defensive operation and there is every chance this is a game that will feature goals.
Before last week Leicester City might have been a slight underdog here which would have made them a tempting pick this weekend, but they are odds on even when backing them on the 'draw no bet' market. With a strong recent record against West Ham United, I imagine Leicester City will have their supporters, but their own defensive issues puts me off backing them here.
Instead I think backing there being at least three goals could pay off at a slightly better price than backing Leicester City 'draw no bet'. West Ham United still look very insecure defensively, but they should be able to create chances too and 8 of the last 10 between these two clubs have ended with at least three goals shared out.
4 of the last 5 at West Ham United have also featured at least three goals and goals have flowed in recent West Ham United home and Leicester City away games.
Look for goals on the latest edition of Friday Night Football.
Crystal Palace v Stoke City Pick: While there have been some plaudits for the way Crystal Palace have been playing in recent weeks, Roy Hodgson would much rather be criticised and have seen his side earn more points. They have been a little unfortunate to not back up the win over Chelsea with at least one more, but the confidence looks to be returning to the side.
Perhaps just as importantly is the improving health of the squad which means Hodgson has the chance to play all of his main attacking talent this weekend after Christian Benteke returned. With the way Crystal Palace have been playing, you have to think a second win of the season is not too far away although backing them at short odds is not for me.
Crystal Palace have won 3 in a row at home against Stoke City which has to be considered, but any team who has defended as poorly as they have at times can be hard to trust at just over odds against. That is particularly the case when you think Stoke City have also been improving and have begun to create chances at a good rate.
Mark Hughes has seen his side score at least twice in 4 of their last 6 games and the creative players like Xherdan Shaqiri are in strong form. It is hard to imagine Stoke City not being able to create chances here at Selhurst Park and scoring goals against Crystal Palace here, although Stoke City's own defensive flaws are likely to be exposed.
The chance of seeing at least three goals in this one is actually a bigger price than Crystal Palace to win, but I think the latter will need at least two goals to secure a victory. Both teams should be able to score at least once and the 1-1 draw is perhaps the biggest concern to the pick, but goals have been flowing for both clubs in recent weeks.
With the defensive problems both teams have been having I think there will be at least three goals shared out between these clubs. That would have been a winner in the last 3 home Crystal Palace games and has also hit in 5 of the last 6 Stoke City games overall.
Both teams have conceded two goals a number of times, but also scored plenty in recent weeks and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks a big price.
Manchester United v Brighton Pick: This is the kind of fixture that Brighton fans would have been dreaming of when coming so close to getting back into the top flight in recent years. There won't be a big expectation of getting a result from the fans who will simply enjoy making the long journey up to Old Trafford, but the players might feel a little more confident.
Brighton are unbeaten in 5 games in the Premier League and they have won at both West Ham United and Swansea City in that time. Of course this is a far different challenge when heading on their travels to face one of the top six teams and Brighton have already comfortably been dismissed at Arsenal where they were beaten 2-0.
Now they have to face a Manchester United team who have been dominant at Old Trafford where they have scored plenty of goals this season. Coming off the disappointment of the 1-0 loss in Basel should refocus the players ahead of a really busy run of games, while Manchester United have to feel good about the chances created in Switzerland as they look to get back to winning ways.
This is a Manchester United team who have shown they can wear down teams at Old Trafford with only Tottenham Hotspur leaving conceding less than two goals. In 4 of their last 6 at Old Trafford Manchester United have managed to hit four goals and they won't take the foot off the gas in this one with goal difference likely to be a potential factor later in the season.
As strong as Brighton have been in recent games, they will try and shut up shop and frustrate Manchester United, but the home team have shown they can break through against defensively minded teams this time around. Brighton have conceded twice at Leicester City and Arsenal and I think Manchester United are more than capable of surpassing that number.
I was tempted in backing the home team to cover the Asian Handicap, but the full pay out is only received in a three goal win. Recent weeks have seen Manchester United a little more vulnerable at the back than earlier this season so Brighton have a chance to play their part, and you can get a similar price to United on the Asian Handicap as you can if backing them to win a game that features at least three goals.
That looks more tempting than backing a big Manchester United win and I will back the home team to win in a game that has at least three goals shared out.
Newcastle United v Watford Pick: There has to be some distraction at Vicarage Road with the Everton bid to prise away Marco Silva as their new manager, but so far Watford have continued to perform and I don't think that changes this weekend. At the time of writing Marco Silva remains the Watford manager and they look a little under-rated heading to St James' Park for this latest Premier League game.
Newcastle United have lost 3 in a row themselves, but I think too much stock is being placed in the fact they have had stronger results at home. Last time out Newcastle United were beaten 0-1 by Bournemouth, while they have needed a late goal to beat Crystal Palace 1-0 before that.
Defensively Rafa Benitez does set up Newcastle United to be tough, but they have lost Jamaal Lascelles to injury and I think that has had an impact in their recent results. Losing the captain at the heart of the defence is tough to replace and Newcastle United have other defensive injuries.
They are also expected to be much more positive at St James' Park and that could play into the counter attacking ability of Watford. This is a team who have scored twice in every away Premier League game this season and I expect they would have been a lot shorter if holding onto their 1-2 lead at Chelsea and 0-2 lead at Everton in two away games Watford have lost prior to this one.
The fact Watford can score those goals is an obvious appeal as Newcastle United have looked a little unsure of themselves in the final third. They should create chances against a Watford defence that has conceded 9 goals in their last 3 away games, but I think it would be a big ask for Newcastle United to beat Watford if the visitors hit their goals mark here.
Like Bournemouth, Watford will have their own chances here and they have played well enough to think they will take those when they come their way. I was tempted to pick Watford to win here, but those recent away collapses have to be a concern from a mental point of view and whether Watford get nervy down the stretch.
However I like the price on Watford avoiding a loss here and I will back them to do that. They can score goals away from home and the win over West Ham United will have restored some confidence that may have been lost before that, while Newcastle United have lost 3 in a row in the League.
Swansea City v Bournemouth Pick: It feels like Premier League clubs are beginning to panic a little earlier than usual this season and five managers have seen their jobs disappear before we have even hit December. That number may easily become six if Paul Clement is not careful as Swansea City have slipped into the bottom three.
Losing 7 of 8 games in all competitions including the last 4 Premier League games will not make Clement sit any easier, while they have been beaten by both Leicester City and Brighton in their last couple at the Liberty Stadium. Swansea City have been struggling for goals which is not a good look when you can't stop conceding and there is some real pressure on Clement to get things right.
Another defeat on Saturday may see Swansea City become the latest club to make a managerial move and they are running into Bournemouth at a tough time.
Eddie Howe has helped Bournemouth onto a run of 4 wins in 5 games and this is a squad of players who have had their confidence restored with those performances. They have started producing more wins and Bournemouth have kept clean sheets in their last couple of games which has to be encouraging for Eddie Howe.
They can earn another win on Saturday and look a big price to do that considering Bournemouth beat Swansea City at home and away last season. However I think the more prudent way to back the away side is on the Asian Handicap at a little under odds against knowing the draw would return the stake.
It is hard to see Swansea City winning this one on their current form, and their last couple of home losses have come against teams who I don't consider better than Bournemouth. With the goals Bournemouth have begun to produce, I think one would be enough to avoid a loss and could be enough to win this game and I will back Bournemouth on the Asian Handicap.
Tottenham Hotspur v West Brom Pick: Tony Pulis has been under pressure for some time with the style of football never giving him much in the goodwill bank from the fans when the results were not being produced. The Baggies were heading one way under his watch and West Brom had to make the decision to look elsewhere.
That means Gary Megson will take charge of West Brom this weekend and I am not sure the fans are going to be enjoying vastly different football. Megson will look to make sure West Brom are hard to beat and frustrate Tottenham Hotspur, but that is much harder to do when the confidence has taken the blows the West Brom players have been suffering.
Now they face a Tottenham Hotspur team who want to make up for the North London derby defeat to Arsenal and who earned a very good win in Dortmund during the week. Harry Kane was back amongst the goals and Tottenham Hotspur had an all around better performance than the one they produced at the Emirates Stadium.
I expect they can use that momentum going into this weekend and Tottenham Hotspur have been winning more games at Wembley Stadium nowadays. The 'curse' has well and truly been removed, although they have yet to truly convince at home when teams set up to defend deep.
I can't imagine that is a big problem for them this weekend as West Brom may just have a hard time picking themselves up after losing their manager. There is some uncertainty there and Tottenham Hotspur should be hungry to try and get back to winning ways in the Premier League.
In recent years West Brom have been a thorn in the side of Tottenham Hotspur, but they did thump them 4-0 at White Hart Lane last season. While they may not get to that margin of victory again, I think Tottenham Hotspur are able to win by a couple of goals on the night and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Liverpool v Chelsea Pick: The big games in the Premier League are coming thick and fast during the busy November and December fixtures and the game of the weekend comes from Anfield where Liverpool take on Chelsea. Two of the top five meeting will always be an important event and both Liverpool and Chelsea know how much the three points will mean.
Both played away from home in the Champions League this past week, but Antonio Conte was once again upset that his Chelsea side have to play a Saturday afternoon game with a day less rest than their opponent. Conte has to be careful that he doesn't give off that negative vibe to his Chelsea players in what is going to be a tough away game at Anfield.
Chelsea have a very strong recent record at Anfield with 6 visits without a defeat, but the last 3 have all ended 1-1 and Liverpool have been playing much better at home in recent weeks. The goals have been flying in, but defensively Liverpool have looked a mess and Chelsea have to feel they can exploit those issues in what looks to be a good game of football.
At Stamford Bridge the goals have tended to come a little easier than they have at Anfield, but this has all the makings of a fixture that will produce at least three goals. Liverpool have been able to get on the front foot at Anfield, but Chelsea will feel they can win this game if they weather the early storm and it will be interesting to see how Antonio Conte will set his team up.
I imagine the system is in place already with Eden Hazard and Alvaro Morata leading the line and Chelsea should have chances on the counter attack throughout this one. However they will have to show some toughness in defence against a rampant Liverpool front four who should all earn a start in this one and picking a winner doesn't look an easy task.
Liverpool have been much stronger at home both in terms of results and defensively, while Chelsea have suffered a couple of poor losses away from home recently. However their record here and style of play should cause Liverpool problems too and I think the recent trend of low scoring games at Anfield may be snapped here.
4 of the last 5 at Anfield have finished under 2.5 goals, but the last 4 have also seen both teams score. I wouldn't put anyone off having a small interest in the 1-1 scoreline which has occurred 3 times in a row between these teams at Anfield, but I do think both are playing very well and we may get another goal from one of the teams in this one.
I will back at least three goals to be shared out here.
Huddersfield Town v Manchester City Pick: The layers are not expecting anything but a fairly comfortable day for Manchester City as they visit Huddersfield Town and it is hard to argue against that.
However anyone steaming into the short odds for a Manchester City win would do well to remember it has only been a few weeks since Huddersfield Town beat Manchester United 2-1 here.
On that day it was a poor performance from Manchester United and a couple of big mistakes that put them in a 2-0 hole, but Manchester City should be well rested and I don't foresee them making those same mistakes. Instead I would imagine they will come out and look to force Huddersfield Town to submit in the same manner others have through Manchester City working the ball around and tiring out their opponents.
It is no surprise that so many of Manchester City's goals have come in the second half with that in mind, but in this one they could get after Huddersfield Town much earlier like Tottenham Hotspur did. Positive starts have been made by Manchester City and I think the likes of Leroy Sane and Gabriel Jesus will be itching to return having been rested during the week.
The attacking threat Manchester City bring should be too much for Huddersfield Town and I think the home team will only have limited chances to play a part in this one. The possession should be dominated by Manchester City and I think Huddersfield Town may struggle to have an impact with a rested Manchester City likely to be putting them under plenty of pressure throughout.
Anything other than a Manchester City win would be a big surprise, and the angle I am going for is the away side winning with a clean sheet. The possession means it can be tough to get after Manchester City, especially with the limited time Huddersfield Town are going to have in this one, and I think it will be tough for the home team.
Manchester City got one last week and I will look for them to win with a clean sheet this week too at a decent looking price.
MY PICKS: West Ham United-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Stoke City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Watford + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bournemouth 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tuesday, 24 November 2015
Midweek Football Picks 2015 (November 24-26)
I'll be honest, I can't seem to get out of my own way when it comes to the football picks this season with so many games seemingly going far away from where I expected them to.
Only a few of those have been down to bad luck so I can't even point to that, but they have simply been bad picks and I have to be better.
Last season wasn't great, but the previous years have been positive so unless the Premier League and Champions League have literally changed something fundamentally, I expect improvements.
Arsenal v Dinamo Zagreb Pick: Arsenal's home win over Bayern Munich last month has given them an outside chance of making it through to the Second Round of the Champions League. The two opening losses to the weaker teams in the Group has given Arsenal a mountain to climb and they do need help from the Bavarian giants, but The Gunners should have a chance to qualify for the next Round in the next couple of weeks.
First off they need to beat Dinamo Zagreb at The Emirates Stadium and I expect they are going to be far too good for the Croatian Champions. A 2-1 defeat in Zagreb was a huge surprise result for Arsenal, but they should have been well ahead in that game prior to going behind and then losing Olivier Giroud to a first half red card made it a very difficult challenge.
Injuries are a big problem for Arsenal at the moment, but their attacking threat through Alexis Sanchez, Mesut Ozil and Olivier Giroud should pay off against a team that really isn't up to this level.
Dinamo Zagreb might dominate their domestic League, but they won't face teams like Arsenal too often and were crushed by Bayern Munich in their visit to Germany. If Arsenal can get their noses in front in the first half hour of this game, I would expect them to take revenge over Dinamo Zagreb with a comfortable win and then keep an ear out for the result of the Bayern Munich-Olympiacos game which will be played at the same time.
Barcelona v Roma Pick: Barcelona are coming in off an almost perfect performance when they crushed Real Madrid 0-4 away from home in the Spanish Primera Division. That result will make Barcelona strong favourites to retain their title, especially with Lionel Messi back after a two month absence, and now they will focus on booking their place in the Champions League Second Round.
A win on Tuesday will ensure Barcelona win the Group regardless of what happens in the other game in the section and they look a team with a lot of confidence behind them. Messi is expected to start to build his match fitness and Roma will do well to stay with them in the Nou Camp.
Roma are very much looking to book their place in the Second Round too and a win on Tuesday will make them favourites to follow Barcelona into the Last 16.
This is not a team that travels very well in the Champions League and I think it is a big test for Roma to take on a rampant Barcelona who have been keeping clean sheets and scoring plenty of goals. A defeat isn't the end of the road for Roma, although the permutations for qualifying to the Second Round will be clear at the end of the evening.
I struggle to see Roma keeping up with the Barcelona attacking quality and with the confidence the home team has and I will back the defending Champions to win by a couple of goals.
Maccabi Tel Aviv v Chelsea Pick: A really disappointing season to this point for Chelsea can show some light at the end of the tunnel if they can move through to the Second Round of the Champions League. Chelsea are a club in turmoil, or so it seems from outside of Stamford Bridge, but a victory in Israel coupled with a Dynamo Kiev failure to win in Porto will be enough for Jose Mourinho's side.
They should be too good for Maccabi Tel Aviv who have been overmatched in the Group Stage of the Champions League having surprisingly come through the Qualifiers. Maccabi Tel Aviv have lost all four games in the Group by at leas two goals including home defeats to both Dynamo Kiev (0-2) and Porto (1-3).
My one concern in backing Chelsea is that they haven't won any of their last 6 away games in all competitions and even that last victory came at League One Walsall.
Only one of their last ten away Champions League games has seen Chelsea win the game by more than a single goal, but they will have taken some heart from the performance in the 1-0 win over Norwich City. With the home side not likely to prevent at least two goals being scored against them, I do think Chelsea will be able to win this by a couple of goals on the night and will back them to do so.
CSKA Moscow v Wolfsburg Pick: This is a big game for both CSKA Moscow and Wolfsburg and the importance of the three points from the fixture will not be lost on either team. For CSKA Moscow it is much more simple than it is for Wolfsburg as any defeat means they will be out of the Champions League regardless of what happens in the other game later in the evening and even a draw might not be good enough for them.
That should mean CSKA Moscow look to get on the front foot in this one and they have been a team that can score goals, although recent form has been a real concern for them.
For Wolfsburg a defeat might not be the end of the road, but they will have a keen interest in the other game being played at Old Trafford, especially as they face Manchester United at home to end the Group Stage. Wolfsburg might feel confident of their chances at home to beat United, but they have struggled away from home which is a concern in this fixture.
Wolfsburg have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in all competitions including conceding twice at both Manchester United and PSV Eindhoven. A lack of goals has to be a bother for the away side having failed to hit the net in 3 of their last 4 away games, but this is a game which should feature both teams looking to get forward to score the goals that will take them potentially through to the Second Round.
You have to remember that CSKA Moscow have conceded at least once in their last 12 away games in the Champions League, but have also scored in 10 of their last 11 at home. If this game does get to 1-1, I don't think either team will settle for that result and will still look to secure the win and so backing at least three goals to be shared in the early game on Wednesday looks the call.
Juventus v Manchester City Pick: This is almost a 'nothing to lose' game for both Juventus and Manchester City in terms of being knocked out of the Champions League, but the importance of winning the Group will not be lost on either team. However, both teams seem to be ones that will look to make things happen rather than sitting back and hoping things happen and so there could be some entertainment for those watching.
Juventus at home will be expected to get forward, but Manchester City have shown that they not a side that will look to settle for a point and instead will look to play attractive attacking football.
For Manchester City the concern has to be the absence of Vincent Kompany which has seen the team concede far too many goals. However the return of Sergio Aguero means they have a focal point who can score goals and I think the layers might have got it a little wrong with their lack of expectation for goals.
Neither side has any reason to step back in this one and I think both teams will score at least once and there could be spaces to exploit as the game wears on. Winning the Group is so important for both teams that I think they will search for the win until the end of the game and I can see at least three goals shared by these teams for a second time this season.
Malmo v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: It is going to be an emotional time for Zlatan Ibrahimovic returning to Malmo even if he won't say as much in the media. The fans are certainly going to give their national hero a big ovation before Malmo look to earn a surprise win over Paris Saint-Germain that will give them an outside chance of moving into the Second Round of the Champions League at PSG's expense.
That is a big ask for Malmo having to beat PSG and Real Madrid in consecutive games and this is a team that has struggled to compete with the top teams in the Champions League over the last couple of years. Atletico Madrid, Juventus and Real Madrid have all won here by the same 0-2 scoreline and Paris Saint-Germain are certainly of that level of team.
Malmo will certainly try to make life difficult for their visitors and the conditions in Sweden means there is snow and cold that Paris Saint-Germain need to deal with.
However, I am not convinced that it is going to be enough to put these teams on an equal setting and Paris Saint-Germain should be too good on the day. It wouldn't surprise me if Ibrahimovic scores the winner in this one, but I think backing PSG to become the fourth team in the last two Group Stages to win here with a clean sheet looks to be the call.
Manchester United v PSV Eindhoven Pick: Manchester United and PSV Eindhoven both have a very big opportunity to get through to the Second Round of the Champions League and this could be the pivotal game to decide which one of those teams are able to do that. It is arguably more important for Manchester United to win the game with a visit to Wolfsburg to come, while on the other hand PSV Eindhoven could overcome a loss by beating CSKA Moscow at home in their final game and hope Manchester United beat Wolfsburg.
In all honesty PSV Eindhoven can't rely on that to happen as a win would almost give Manchester United a reason to rest some players in the final game at Wolfsburg knowing qualification is assured. Of course Manchester United will want to win the Group to avoid the likes of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the Second Round, so the pressure is on United to win this game and get into a position to do so.
Both home wins in the Champions League have come after facing some adversity and that has to be a concern for Manchester United fans. CSKA Moscow could easily have gone a goal ahead just thirty seconds before Wayne Rooney scored the winning goal in Manchester United's last game at Old Trafford, while Wolfsburg took the lead here.
However, both teams are arguably better than PSV Eindhoven and the Dutch Champions have conceded at least two goals in each away defeat in the Group. PSV were 3-0 down at CSKA Moscow before fighting back for a 3-2 loss and they were beaten 2-0 at Wolfsburg, while Manchester United outplayed them for much of the first half in the first game of the Group.
That injury suffered by Luke Shaw seemed to affect Manchester United badly, as you would expect, but I expect the team to be a little more ready this time. Manchester United might not be the most exhilarating team to watch at this moment of time, and they do have a big Premier League game at leaders Leicester City on Saturday, but I still think the home team win this by a couple of goals.
PSV Eindhoven have conceded too many on their travels in the Group so far and even in the Dutch League they have been poor defensively. While they have had the quality to make up for that in the Eredivisie, it has been harder in the Champions League and I like Manchester United to win by a couple of goals.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Real Madrid Pick: After keeping Rafa Benitez in the role of manager for the foreseeable future, Real Madrid will be looking for an immediate reaction to their 0-4 home defeat to Barcelona by confirming top spot in their Champions League Group. Shakhtar Donetsk are expecting a backlash from Real Madrid and they have struggled to match Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid in earlier games in the Group and might find it difficult again.
I fully expect Benitez to go back to basics after seeing his side concede seven games in the last two games and making sure Real Madrid are solid at the back.
That could be a key to their performance in the Ukraine as their attacking threats should provide a way to goal to secure the win and Real Madrid have kept clean sheets in all four Champions League games.
As well as Shakhtar Donetsk have done in the past in this competition, they have failed to score in three of four games in the Group and were beaten to nil by Paris Saint-Germain here. They have also failed to score in half of their last six Champions League home games which have all been played away from Donetsk and I think a small interest on Real Madrid bouncing back in the correct manner from their El Classico humiliation has to be taken.
That small interest should be on Real Madrid wining this game with a clean sheet and that is what I will back.
Monaco v Anderlecht Pick: This Group has been tight from the beginning, but we might finally get some separation on Match Day 5.
Home advantages could be key in the two games to be played this week and it is Monaco who I believe will have a little too much for Anderlecht in this game. A win for Monaco would virtually assure them of a place in the Last 32 on Thursday ahead of their final game in London against Tottenham Hotspur and I think they will just about get over the line to get that.
Monaco have won 3 in a row at home by narrow 1-0 margins, but they should be too good for Anderlecht who have lost 4 in a row away from home in the Europa League. Losses in Qarabag and Tottenham Hotspur won't inspire much confidence in the Anderlecht squad and I think Monaco will prove a little too good on the night and earn a vital three points in the Group.
AZ Alkmaar v Partizan Belgrade Pick: This should be a tense game for both AZ Alkmaar and Partizan Belgrade who will be desperate for the three points in order to aid their ambitions of getting through to the Last 32.
For AZ Alkmaar things are very simple as they look to win this game and then hope to do the same in their last game at Athletic Bilbao, who may have qualified by then, to give themselves a chance to get into the next Round. On the other hand, Partizan Belgrade are trying to snap a 2 game losing run in the Europa League which has set them back in the Group after opening up with back to back wins.
Partizan Belgrade had an impressive win at Augsburg earlier in the Group, but generally have been poor travellers in European football. With AZ Alkmaar being a pretty strong home team both domestically and in European football I think they can be backed at odds against to win this game and get back into contention in the Group.
Lazio v Dnipro Pick: Neither Lazio nor Dnipro can point to recent form to suggest they are going to win this game, but the home side have the benefit of knowing a draw is good enough for them to get through to the Last 32. Now I am not expecting Lazio to play for the draw as they would like to win the Group too, but it does mean the onus is on Dnipro to find the win here and that means Lazio can pick them off on the counter-attack.
This has been a strong ground for Lazio for the majority of the season and even the two recent poor results here might not have dented their confidence too much.
They have won all 3 home games in European football this season and Lazio are facing a Dnipro team that has struggled on their travels even during their run to the Europa League Final last season. I can see a situation where a desperate Dnipro are perhaps picked off late in this one as they try and stay alive in the Group and I like Lazio to win this game and erase their last couple of performances in front of their own fans.
Celtic v Ajax Pick: This is a huge game for both Celtic and Ajax as they look to keep their Europa League dreams alive and the pressure would certainly be amped up on both teams if they hear news of Fenerbahce leading against an already qualified Molde team.
A draw doesn't do anything for either Celtic or Ajax so it is hard to imagine either team really sitting back and hoping things happen for them. The game between them earlier in the Group was an exciting one and all of Celtic's games in the Europa League this season have seen plenty of goals shared out.
That hasn't been the case for Ajax since the opening 2-2 draw with Celtic, but they have to get something here and will certainly pose some problems when going forward. Defensively they can be caught out at times and the fact that neither team is looking to draw this game should keep the intensity up throughout.
With the importance of earning the three points, gaps could certainly open up as this game is played and I like the chance of there being at least three goals for a fifth consecutive Celtic Europa League game.
Liverpool v Bordeaux Pick: The Europa League is clearly a competition that Jurgen Klopp is looking at to build momentum in the Premier League and he has made it clear it isn't a hindrance to what he wants to achieve at Anfield.
Form has certainly improved of late, although Liverpool's style might make them a more effective away from home in the immediate future. In fact their recent run of wins have mainly come on their travels, but Liverpool know Bordeaux need to win this game to give themselves a real chance to move into the Last 32 so they might be able to hit the French side on the counter.
You do have to think Liverpool will pick a strong team to make sure they are through with a game to spare and able to rest players ahead of the Christmas schedule next month. I think the home team will be confident and likely have a significant edge in the contest against a team that will be pushing late on to try and win the game.
I can see a situation where Liverpool are leading going into the final twenty minutes of the game and then able to hit Bordeaux on the break to win this by a couple of goals. I'll back Liverpool on the Asian Handicap to win this by a couple of goals knowing a one goal win will return the stake.
MY PICKS: Arsenal - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
CSKA Moscow-Wolfsburg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)
Juventus-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain Win to Nil @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Real Madrid Win to Nil @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Monaco @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
AZ Alkmaar @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Lazio @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Celtic-Ajax Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
November Update: 3-8, - 8.58 Units (21 Units Staked, - 40.86% Yield)
October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 61-86-4, - 33.67 Units (291 Units Staked, - 11.57% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Only a few of those have been down to bad luck so I can't even point to that, but they have simply been bad picks and I have to be better.
Last season wasn't great, but the previous years have been positive so unless the Premier League and Champions League have literally changed something fundamentally, I expect improvements.
Arsenal v Dinamo Zagreb Pick: Arsenal's home win over Bayern Munich last month has given them an outside chance of making it through to the Second Round of the Champions League. The two opening losses to the weaker teams in the Group has given Arsenal a mountain to climb and they do need help from the Bavarian giants, but The Gunners should have a chance to qualify for the next Round in the next couple of weeks.
First off they need to beat Dinamo Zagreb at The Emirates Stadium and I expect they are going to be far too good for the Croatian Champions. A 2-1 defeat in Zagreb was a huge surprise result for Arsenal, but they should have been well ahead in that game prior to going behind and then losing Olivier Giroud to a first half red card made it a very difficult challenge.
Injuries are a big problem for Arsenal at the moment, but their attacking threat through Alexis Sanchez, Mesut Ozil and Olivier Giroud should pay off against a team that really isn't up to this level.
Dinamo Zagreb might dominate their domestic League, but they won't face teams like Arsenal too often and were crushed by Bayern Munich in their visit to Germany. If Arsenal can get their noses in front in the first half hour of this game, I would expect them to take revenge over Dinamo Zagreb with a comfortable win and then keep an ear out for the result of the Bayern Munich-Olympiacos game which will be played at the same time.
Barcelona v Roma Pick: Barcelona are coming in off an almost perfect performance when they crushed Real Madrid 0-4 away from home in the Spanish Primera Division. That result will make Barcelona strong favourites to retain their title, especially with Lionel Messi back after a two month absence, and now they will focus on booking their place in the Champions League Second Round.
A win on Tuesday will ensure Barcelona win the Group regardless of what happens in the other game in the section and they look a team with a lot of confidence behind them. Messi is expected to start to build his match fitness and Roma will do well to stay with them in the Nou Camp.
Roma are very much looking to book their place in the Second Round too and a win on Tuesday will make them favourites to follow Barcelona into the Last 16.
This is not a team that travels very well in the Champions League and I think it is a big test for Roma to take on a rampant Barcelona who have been keeping clean sheets and scoring plenty of goals. A defeat isn't the end of the road for Roma, although the permutations for qualifying to the Second Round will be clear at the end of the evening.
I struggle to see Roma keeping up with the Barcelona attacking quality and with the confidence the home team has and I will back the defending Champions to win by a couple of goals.
Maccabi Tel Aviv v Chelsea Pick: A really disappointing season to this point for Chelsea can show some light at the end of the tunnel if they can move through to the Second Round of the Champions League. Chelsea are a club in turmoil, or so it seems from outside of Stamford Bridge, but a victory in Israel coupled with a Dynamo Kiev failure to win in Porto will be enough for Jose Mourinho's side.
They should be too good for Maccabi Tel Aviv who have been overmatched in the Group Stage of the Champions League having surprisingly come through the Qualifiers. Maccabi Tel Aviv have lost all four games in the Group by at leas two goals including home defeats to both Dynamo Kiev (0-2) and Porto (1-3).
My one concern in backing Chelsea is that they haven't won any of their last 6 away games in all competitions and even that last victory came at League One Walsall.
Only one of their last ten away Champions League games has seen Chelsea win the game by more than a single goal, but they will have taken some heart from the performance in the 1-0 win over Norwich City. With the home side not likely to prevent at least two goals being scored against them, I do think Chelsea will be able to win this by a couple of goals on the night and will back them to do so.
CSKA Moscow v Wolfsburg Pick: This is a big game for both CSKA Moscow and Wolfsburg and the importance of the three points from the fixture will not be lost on either team. For CSKA Moscow it is much more simple than it is for Wolfsburg as any defeat means they will be out of the Champions League regardless of what happens in the other game later in the evening and even a draw might not be good enough for them.
That should mean CSKA Moscow look to get on the front foot in this one and they have been a team that can score goals, although recent form has been a real concern for them.
For Wolfsburg a defeat might not be the end of the road, but they will have a keen interest in the other game being played at Old Trafford, especially as they face Manchester United at home to end the Group Stage. Wolfsburg might feel confident of their chances at home to beat United, but they have struggled away from home which is a concern in this fixture.
Wolfsburg have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in all competitions including conceding twice at both Manchester United and PSV Eindhoven. A lack of goals has to be a bother for the away side having failed to hit the net in 3 of their last 4 away games, but this is a game which should feature both teams looking to get forward to score the goals that will take them potentially through to the Second Round.
You have to remember that CSKA Moscow have conceded at least once in their last 12 away games in the Champions League, but have also scored in 10 of their last 11 at home. If this game does get to 1-1, I don't think either team will settle for that result and will still look to secure the win and so backing at least three goals to be shared in the early game on Wednesday looks the call.
Juventus v Manchester City Pick: This is almost a 'nothing to lose' game for both Juventus and Manchester City in terms of being knocked out of the Champions League, but the importance of winning the Group will not be lost on either team. However, both teams seem to be ones that will look to make things happen rather than sitting back and hoping things happen and so there could be some entertainment for those watching.
Juventus at home will be expected to get forward, but Manchester City have shown that they not a side that will look to settle for a point and instead will look to play attractive attacking football.
For Manchester City the concern has to be the absence of Vincent Kompany which has seen the team concede far too many goals. However the return of Sergio Aguero means they have a focal point who can score goals and I think the layers might have got it a little wrong with their lack of expectation for goals.
Neither side has any reason to step back in this one and I think both teams will score at least once and there could be spaces to exploit as the game wears on. Winning the Group is so important for both teams that I think they will search for the win until the end of the game and I can see at least three goals shared by these teams for a second time this season.
Malmo v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: It is going to be an emotional time for Zlatan Ibrahimovic returning to Malmo even if he won't say as much in the media. The fans are certainly going to give their national hero a big ovation before Malmo look to earn a surprise win over Paris Saint-Germain that will give them an outside chance of moving into the Second Round of the Champions League at PSG's expense.
That is a big ask for Malmo having to beat PSG and Real Madrid in consecutive games and this is a team that has struggled to compete with the top teams in the Champions League over the last couple of years. Atletico Madrid, Juventus and Real Madrid have all won here by the same 0-2 scoreline and Paris Saint-Germain are certainly of that level of team.
Malmo will certainly try to make life difficult for their visitors and the conditions in Sweden means there is snow and cold that Paris Saint-Germain need to deal with.
However, I am not convinced that it is going to be enough to put these teams on an equal setting and Paris Saint-Germain should be too good on the day. It wouldn't surprise me if Ibrahimovic scores the winner in this one, but I think backing PSG to become the fourth team in the last two Group Stages to win here with a clean sheet looks to be the call.
Manchester United v PSV Eindhoven Pick: Manchester United and PSV Eindhoven both have a very big opportunity to get through to the Second Round of the Champions League and this could be the pivotal game to decide which one of those teams are able to do that. It is arguably more important for Manchester United to win the game with a visit to Wolfsburg to come, while on the other hand PSV Eindhoven could overcome a loss by beating CSKA Moscow at home in their final game and hope Manchester United beat Wolfsburg.
In all honesty PSV Eindhoven can't rely on that to happen as a win would almost give Manchester United a reason to rest some players in the final game at Wolfsburg knowing qualification is assured. Of course Manchester United will want to win the Group to avoid the likes of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the Second Round, so the pressure is on United to win this game and get into a position to do so.
Both home wins in the Champions League have come after facing some adversity and that has to be a concern for Manchester United fans. CSKA Moscow could easily have gone a goal ahead just thirty seconds before Wayne Rooney scored the winning goal in Manchester United's last game at Old Trafford, while Wolfsburg took the lead here.
However, both teams are arguably better than PSV Eindhoven and the Dutch Champions have conceded at least two goals in each away defeat in the Group. PSV were 3-0 down at CSKA Moscow before fighting back for a 3-2 loss and they were beaten 2-0 at Wolfsburg, while Manchester United outplayed them for much of the first half in the first game of the Group.
That injury suffered by Luke Shaw seemed to affect Manchester United badly, as you would expect, but I expect the team to be a little more ready this time. Manchester United might not be the most exhilarating team to watch at this moment of time, and they do have a big Premier League game at leaders Leicester City on Saturday, but I still think the home team win this by a couple of goals.
PSV Eindhoven have conceded too many on their travels in the Group so far and even in the Dutch League they have been poor defensively. While they have had the quality to make up for that in the Eredivisie, it has been harder in the Champions League and I like Manchester United to win by a couple of goals.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Real Madrid Pick: After keeping Rafa Benitez in the role of manager for the foreseeable future, Real Madrid will be looking for an immediate reaction to their 0-4 home defeat to Barcelona by confirming top spot in their Champions League Group. Shakhtar Donetsk are expecting a backlash from Real Madrid and they have struggled to match Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid in earlier games in the Group and might find it difficult again.
I fully expect Benitez to go back to basics after seeing his side concede seven games in the last two games and making sure Real Madrid are solid at the back.
That could be a key to their performance in the Ukraine as their attacking threats should provide a way to goal to secure the win and Real Madrid have kept clean sheets in all four Champions League games.
As well as Shakhtar Donetsk have done in the past in this competition, they have failed to score in three of four games in the Group and were beaten to nil by Paris Saint-Germain here. They have also failed to score in half of their last six Champions League home games which have all been played away from Donetsk and I think a small interest on Real Madrid bouncing back in the correct manner from their El Classico humiliation has to be taken.
That small interest should be on Real Madrid wining this game with a clean sheet and that is what I will back.
Monaco v Anderlecht Pick: This Group has been tight from the beginning, but we might finally get some separation on Match Day 5.
Home advantages could be key in the two games to be played this week and it is Monaco who I believe will have a little too much for Anderlecht in this game. A win for Monaco would virtually assure them of a place in the Last 32 on Thursday ahead of their final game in London against Tottenham Hotspur and I think they will just about get over the line to get that.
Monaco have won 3 in a row at home by narrow 1-0 margins, but they should be too good for Anderlecht who have lost 4 in a row away from home in the Europa League. Losses in Qarabag and Tottenham Hotspur won't inspire much confidence in the Anderlecht squad and I think Monaco will prove a little too good on the night and earn a vital three points in the Group.
AZ Alkmaar v Partizan Belgrade Pick: This should be a tense game for both AZ Alkmaar and Partizan Belgrade who will be desperate for the three points in order to aid their ambitions of getting through to the Last 32.
For AZ Alkmaar things are very simple as they look to win this game and then hope to do the same in their last game at Athletic Bilbao, who may have qualified by then, to give themselves a chance to get into the next Round. On the other hand, Partizan Belgrade are trying to snap a 2 game losing run in the Europa League which has set them back in the Group after opening up with back to back wins.
Partizan Belgrade had an impressive win at Augsburg earlier in the Group, but generally have been poor travellers in European football. With AZ Alkmaar being a pretty strong home team both domestically and in European football I think they can be backed at odds against to win this game and get back into contention in the Group.
Lazio v Dnipro Pick: Neither Lazio nor Dnipro can point to recent form to suggest they are going to win this game, but the home side have the benefit of knowing a draw is good enough for them to get through to the Last 32. Now I am not expecting Lazio to play for the draw as they would like to win the Group too, but it does mean the onus is on Dnipro to find the win here and that means Lazio can pick them off on the counter-attack.
This has been a strong ground for Lazio for the majority of the season and even the two recent poor results here might not have dented their confidence too much.
They have won all 3 home games in European football this season and Lazio are facing a Dnipro team that has struggled on their travels even during their run to the Europa League Final last season. I can see a situation where a desperate Dnipro are perhaps picked off late in this one as they try and stay alive in the Group and I like Lazio to win this game and erase their last couple of performances in front of their own fans.
Celtic v Ajax Pick: This is a huge game for both Celtic and Ajax as they look to keep their Europa League dreams alive and the pressure would certainly be amped up on both teams if they hear news of Fenerbahce leading against an already qualified Molde team.
A draw doesn't do anything for either Celtic or Ajax so it is hard to imagine either team really sitting back and hoping things happen for them. The game between them earlier in the Group was an exciting one and all of Celtic's games in the Europa League this season have seen plenty of goals shared out.
That hasn't been the case for Ajax since the opening 2-2 draw with Celtic, but they have to get something here and will certainly pose some problems when going forward. Defensively they can be caught out at times and the fact that neither team is looking to draw this game should keep the intensity up throughout.
With the importance of earning the three points, gaps could certainly open up as this game is played and I like the chance of there being at least three goals for a fifth consecutive Celtic Europa League game.
Liverpool v Bordeaux Pick: The Europa League is clearly a competition that Jurgen Klopp is looking at to build momentum in the Premier League and he has made it clear it isn't a hindrance to what he wants to achieve at Anfield.
Form has certainly improved of late, although Liverpool's style might make them a more effective away from home in the immediate future. In fact their recent run of wins have mainly come on their travels, but Liverpool know Bordeaux need to win this game to give themselves a real chance to move into the Last 32 so they might be able to hit the French side on the counter.
You do have to think Liverpool will pick a strong team to make sure they are through with a game to spare and able to rest players ahead of the Christmas schedule next month. I think the home team will be confident and likely have a significant edge in the contest against a team that will be pushing late on to try and win the game.
I can see a situation where Liverpool are leading going into the final twenty minutes of the game and then able to hit Bordeaux on the break to win this by a couple of goals. I'll back Liverpool on the Asian Handicap to win this by a couple of goals knowing a one goal win will return the stake.
MY PICKS: Arsenal - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
CSKA Moscow-Wolfsburg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)
Juventus-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain Win to Nil @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Real Madrid Win to Nil @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Monaco @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
AZ Alkmaar @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Lazio @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Celtic-Ajax Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
November Update: 3-8, - 8.58 Units (21 Units Staked, - 40.86% Yield)
October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 61-86-4, - 33.67 Units (291 Units Staked, - 11.57% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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