NFL Week 12 Picks 2023 (November 23-27)

Week 10 was a very poor one for the NFL Picks, but the bounce back in Week 11 is important and keeps things ticking along this season.

As we approach Thanksgiving Day in the United States, attention will have turned to the NFL PlayOffs and there were more big injuries in Week 11 that has changed the outlook for teams.

One of those is the Cincinnati Bengals- many believed the Bengals could win the Super Bowl, but it has been a tough season with Joe Burrow struggling with injury early on. And just when the momentum looked to be finally building behind the Bengals, Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending injury last Thursday, which has left the Cincinnati Bengals looking well short in the AFC.

It doesn't help that they are the only team in the AFC North that doesn't hold a winning record and Jake Browning is extremely inexperienced at Quarter Back as he takes over from Burrow. It feels like a long shot for the Bengals to even make the PlayOffs right now, especially with six of the remaining seven teams on the schedule all holding a winning record.

Another year is also over for the New York Jets for all intents and purposes after a blowout loss at the Buffalo Bills.

Last week the decision to hold onto Zach Wilson as the starting Quarter Back, despite the Jets making it clear they did not feel he was ready in the off-season, was criticised. And it feels like the Jets have had enough too with Wilson pulled out in the Third Quarter of the blowout loss in Buffalo and now being relegated to third string Quarter Back as the Jets begin to think about getting Aaron Rodgers healthy and trying to go again in 2024.

The Seattle Seahawks will be concerned about Geno Smith at Quarter Back and will know that their season is likely resting on the outcome of any scans he has this week. Drew Lock looks way below the standards needed and the Seahawks face the San Francisco 49ers twice in the next three weeks when their chances of winning the NFC West will be decided.

If Smith is ruled out, the Seahawks may struggle to even make the Wild Card places, but otherwise they should be able to win enough games to earn one of those places.

Three more wins is expected to be enough to make the PlayOffs in the NFC, but Seattle may struggle to even do that if Lock is asked to spend considerable time at Quarter Back.

This will change on a week to week basis, but a very early look at how the PlayOffs could stand did bring up some surprises.

Looking ahead, I can see the NFC South being won by a team with a losing record, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may just sneak out the Division and host a Wild Card Game in January.

The Dallas Cowboys could be the team heading into that game with all of the pressure on the road team who should be able to secure as many as 12 wins, although still finishing behind the Philadelphia Eagles.

There is still a chance that the Detroit Lions could finish with the joint-best record in the NFC along with the aforementioned Eagles with a much more comfortable looking schedule of the two teams. Winning the Number 1 Seed could actually be determined by a big Week 17 game when the Lions visit the Cowboys, but we have seen how quickly an outlook can change for a team depending on injuries.

I have said for a while that the top teams, injury withstanding, in the NFC look pretty easy to pick out. The NFC South is competitive, but you could pick out at least five of the seven teams to make the post-season with some confidence.

My early look had a few more surprises in the AFC side of the PlayOffs- the Buffalo Bills miss out if the season plays out as predicted, while the Miami Dolphins do go on and win the AFC East.

Three of the AFC North teams find a way into the post-season, including the Cleveland Browns without Deshaun Watson, while the Houston Texans win the AFC South. CJ Stroud is playing at an extremely high level and the Texans have yet to host the Jacksonville Jaguars in what could be a Division decider, although I also expect the Jaguars to make the post-season.

Guessing the post-season picture ahead of Week 12 is always going to be hazardous, but there does feel like some surprises and upsets could be seen between now and the end of Week 18 and that is what makes it exciting for fans.

After another week of action, the top five in my standings are as follows:

1) Philadelphia Eagles (9-1): wins over two of the top AFC teams and the Dallas Cowboys and with a big game coming up against the Buffalo Bills keeps the Eagles at top spot.

2) Detroit Lions (8-2): they did not produce their best in Week 11, but the Lions won and look healthy.

3) San Francisco 49ers (7-3): a strong couple of wins have gotten San Francisco back on track and their main rivals in the NFC West might have lost their starting Quarter Back.

4) Baltimore Ravens (8-3): it is hard to know where the Ravens are considering they ended up crushing a Cincinnati team that played the second half without Joe Burrow, but Baltimore deserve credit for bouncing back in a big win.

5) Kansas City Chiefs (7-3): there is no doubt that it feels harsh dropping Kansas City several places after a loss to the Eagles, but they looked out of sync Offensively. The Chiefs will need to find their identity on this side of the ball if they are going to repeat as Champions, while finishing with the Number 1 Seed has to be the goal to try and make life that much easier.

There are some quality teams that are just outside of these places, but they will need to get through some tough challenges to enter the top five places.

The Dolphins need to beat a 'good' team, while the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans also have something to prove.

Dallas look strong, but again need to prove themselves in a big game, while the likes of Cleveland and Seattle could be down starting Quarter Backs and that does/will hold them back.

The NFL Week 12 schedule is split over four days with games to be played on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday.

Picks will be placed in this thread over the next couple of days with the momentum from Week 11 something we can look to build upon.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: It has been seven years since the Detroit Lions (8-2) last won a game on Thanksgiving Day, but they continue to open up the day of NFL Football.

In previous years, some have questioned whether the Lions deserve to hold onto a Thanksgiving Day Game, but that is not going to be the case in 2023 with the team only trailing the Philadelphia Eagles for the most wins in the NFC. They do have a healthy lead at the top of the NFC North, but the Lions will want to maintain some of their current momentum knowing that four of the next six games are going to be played on the road.

The Lions needed some late magic to overcome the Chicago Bears in Week 11 and there is a feeling that Detroit were perhaps looking past the team in the basement of their Division. Head Coach Dan Campbell and many of the players will know this game on Thursday gives them a big opportunity to impress a national audience and the Lions might have already been mentally checked in for this important outing.

It shows plenty of character that the Lions were still able to fight back and win that game in Week 11 and they are a similar priced favourite when Detroit host the Green Bay Packers (4-6) who have kept their slim hopes of earning a PlayOff spot alive after a win of their own on Sunday.

That came at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, and now Green Bay have to show they can take the show on the road having lost four in a row outside of Lambeau Field.

Jordan Love had a decent game against the Chargers, but this is expected to be much more challenging for the Quarter Back who threw 2 Interceptions in a home loss to the Detroit Lions earlier this season. The pressure may be on Love's shoulders with Aaron Jones picking up another injury on Sunday that is likely going to keep the Running Back from taking part.

The Quarter Back did have 246 passing yards and 1 Touchdown pass and 1 Touchdown run to his name in the home defeat to the Lions, but Jordan Love will know he needs to be much better if he is going to help his team pick up the upset.

He would be more comfortable with Aaron Jones behind him in the backfield, but either way it will be a big challenge for the Packers Offensive Line to establish the run. While the game is competitive, the feeling is that Green Bay will continue to pound the rock and look to shorten the game, while also keeping their Quarter Back in manageable down and distance.

However, it is not going to be an easy day for Jordan Love if he has to rely on his arm- while he has been playing a little better of late, Love will be under plenty of duress from the Detroit pass rush, while the Lions Secondary has been playing the pass effectively and may be able to tempt Jordan Love into a mistake or two, much as they did in the road win.

The game plan on the other side of the ball should be pretty simple for the Detroit Lions who have gotten a significant punch from David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground. It was Montgomery who pounded the Packers into oblivion earlier this season and he had a solid return game against the Chicago Bears in Week 11, while Gibbs has the ability to break out a big play every time he touches the ball.

With the Packers Defensive Line struggling to stop the run, Detroit should be able to rip off some big plays on the ground and they can keep the Offensive unit in very strong field position. Jared Goff had 210 passing yards in the road win over the Packers and he may not be asked to do much in this one aside from making sure the team is lined up and able to set up those big run plays.

Jared Goff is facing a Green Bay Secondary that has not given up a lot of passing yards in recent games, but that is also down to the fact that teams have been able to run the ball very well against them. It also should be noted the level of Quarter Back and overall Offensive units they have played in their last few games and Detroit are going to be significantly more challenging than the Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers.

The Lions have a lot more balance than those teams and that is going to create fits for the Green Bay Packers as Detroit chase a first win on Thanksgiving since 2016.

They failed to cover as a home favourite on Sunday, but we had the Chicago Bears with the points that day and the feeling is that the Lions will be a lot more focused from the off against the Green Bay Packers.

Jordan Love may have an opportunity for a backdoor cover, but the expectation is that the Lions can clamp down on the run and force the inexperienced Quarter Back to make the mistakes that gives the home team extra possessions. With the Offensive unit particularly effective at home, the Lions should be able to put up enough points to clear this spread and move right alongside the Philadelphia Eagles with nine wins, the joint-most in the NFL this season.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The rumours are gathering pace that this could be the last game that Ron Rivera is the Head Coach of the Washington Commanders (4-7). Losing twice to the New York Giants is simply not going to make management change their mind, while Rivera has to know the writing is on the wall after the Commanders traded away two key pass rushers and knowing that the Head Coach was not selected by the current ownership team.

If it wasn't for the short week with the Commanders set to play on Thanksgiving Day, the feeling is that Ron Rivera might have been fired this week. Instead, he is given one last chance to be given an opportunity to at least play out the season, while a loss for Washington may mean Ron Rivera has plenty of time to spend with his family on Thanksgiving weekend and beyond.

They are huge underdogs when visiting the Dallas Cowboys (7-3) who are still chasing the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.

Playing a Divisional rival does make things tougher for any team, but the Cowboys have been crushing 'weak' opposition all season- they have beaten the Giants (twice), Jets, Patriots, Chargers, Rams and Panthers this season and only one of those wins has been by less than a 20 point margin.

As written above, Dallas have been crushing weak opponents and this is another for them on Thanksgiving.

Playing on this day has not usually resulted in big wins for the Cowboys, and they have lost plenty of Thanksgiving Day games in recent years, but this Washington Commanders team looks tailor made for a Dallas team that has played four home games this season and won by margins of 20, 35, 23 and 32 points.

They are being asked to cover a big spread, but Dak Prescott and the Cowboys Offensive unit should be able to score a lot of points in this one after seeing Tommy DeVito carve up the Commanders Secondary in Week 11 (that is Tommy DeVito the New York Giants Quarter Back, although Tommy DeVito, the infamous Goodfellas film character would have likely done the same).

Montez Sweat and Chase Young are gone so it is expected that Dak Prescott will have a relatively clean pocket to make his plays down the field, while the Cowboys are also likely going to be able to rip off some big gains on the ground. It should be a relatively 'easy' day in the office for Prescott operating from third and manageable whenever Dallas have the ball, while the play-action should see him have opportunities to make some big throws down the field and the Cowboys have every chance of getting close to the 40 point mark they are averaging at home.

The Dallas Defensive unit will certainly believe they can contribute and they have played much better at home than on the road.

In Week 11, the Cowboys gave Bryce Young all he could handle and they are likely going to put immense pressure on second year Quarter Back Sam Howell in this one.

Sam Howell is not helped playing behind a revolving door of an Offensive Line and continues to be hit hard whenever he takes a snap and looks to pass the ball. The key for the Commanders will be to try and keep this game competitive and continue to feed Bijan Robinson has much as they can, either running the ball directly or as a pass-catching Running Back coming out of the backfield.

Getting the ball into Robinson's hands as quickly as possible might see the Commanders stay in front of the chains, but any time they are in obvious passing situations, the Cowboys pass rush is going to be wreaking havoc in the backfield. Sam Howell may not have the worst passing numbers and there are some quality Receivers who can step up for him, but it is tough to continue to make plays with defenders hanging onto you, while the Cowboys Secondary are also playing at a pretty good level right now.

The pass rush has certainly made it easier for the Secondary and the Cowboys may be able to force a couple of turnovers that helps them pull away and cover what is a very big line for any NFL game, let alone a Divisional game.

Dallas are 14-6 against the spread as a home favourite under Mike McCarthy, while you have to question how much the Commanders team have left to give a Head Coach that is a lame duck to say the least.

However, you have to respect the fact that the Commanders could easily secure a backdoor cover in this game with the spread as big as it is. They are also 5-0 against the spread as the road underdog this season and have a couple of 3 point losses at Philadelphia and Seattle.

Divisional games usually are plenty motivating on their own, regardless of a season situation, but the Cowboys might be able to come out and make a big statement against a team that is perhaps lacking some direction. If the Commanders do feel that their Head Coach could be out of the door on Friday, they might check out of this one and the Dallas Defensive unit can make a couple of big plays that helps the home team secure a big victory.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Three losses in a row would worry some teams, but others will go out and make a big trade to bring a player like Chase Young. This comes twelve months after the San Francisco 49ers (7-3) traded for Christian McCaffrey and the team are firmly back on track after winning back to back games.

Over the next three weeks, the 49ers face the Seattle Seahawks (6-4) twice and the NFC West Division race will look much clearer by the end of those.

Bringing in Chase Young is clearly going to have a positive impact on the 49ers team, but the reality is that their three game losing run was largely down to injuries that the team had been dealing with. They went into a Bye, got healthier, and San Francisco have looked like a team that could win the Super Bowl once again.

There would also have been very little panic in the San Francisco locker room considering the team have reached the Super Bowl in 2019 and the NFC Championship Game in 2021 and 2022. That will be the minimum aim for Kyle Shanahan and his team again, while the 49ers may feel they deserve to have much better health going into January after their NFC Championship Game defeat in January 2023.

The 49ers look healthier than the Seattle Seahawks who could be without Geno Smith at Quarter Back and Kenneth Walker III at Running Back in a short week. Pete Carroll is still talking up the chances of Smith playing this game, but it feels like a long shot when you think of the injury he picked up on Sunday, one that meant he missed much of the second half before returning for one last drive as Smith tried to guide the Seahawks to an important win.

A missed Field Goal meant it was not worth the effort and Geno Smith is going to banged up at the very least.

Playing this pass rush is far from ideal for the Quarter Back and even if Smith starts, it has to be considered short odds that he will not be able to finish.

Drew Lock playing against this Defensive unit could be a bloodbath.

The Seahawks may look to run the ball and see if that can ease the expected pressure all around Geno Smith, but the Offensive Line have not been opening big holes of late and the 49ers may not respect the Quarter Back's ability to throw the ball at his usual level. That could see them load the line of scrimmage and force Seattle to try and keep the chains moving through the air.

Again, if Geno Smith was healthy, he might have a chance, but either Smith at less than 100% or Drew Lock throwing feels like a recipe for disaster.

If this game was played earlier in the season, some may have felt that the Seahawks Defensive unit could at least keep them in the contest, but that has looked less likely in recent games. There was always a feeling that the Seahawks were playing at an unsustainable level and San Francisco have the players that can expose the holes at all levels.

Christian McCaffrey and the Offensive Line should have a big day and they should be able to move the ball very efficiently on the ground. In the last three games, the Seattle Defensive Line have allowed teams to move the ball at 5.5 yards per carry so being able to clamp down on McCaffrey looks to be wishful thinking, while the Running Back is also expected to be a threat coming out of the backfield and making some plays in the passing game too.

Things are also looking up for Brock Purdy, even if there is still some feeling that he is a product of the Kyle Shanahan system. The Quarter Back won't care what people think and Purdy had a very good outing in Week 11 and the expectation is that he can pick up from where he left off.

Recent games has seen the Seattle pass rush lose some of its effectiveness and it will be tough to get to a Quarter Back who is likely going to be operating in front of the chains and who is willing to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible.

Brock Purdy should also be able to exploit play-action to hit the likes of Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle down the field and the expectation is that the 49ers can score enough points to clear this spread.

It would have been perfect if the line had dipped below a key number 7, but that looks unlikely now even if Geno Smith is cleared to suit up.

Any other decision and it is expected to perhaps rival the line the Cowboys are being asked to cover earlier in the day and so it might be worth locking in.

Seattle did have a decent record against San Francisco with five wins in six games played between November 2019 and December 2021, but the 49ers have won three in a row since then. All of those wins have been by at least eight point margins and there is every chance that San Francisco can extend that run in the late Thanksgiving Day game

You do have to respect the fact that the Seahawks are 3-1 against the spread as the home underdog since the beginning of last season, but Geno Smith's health is a massive concern for this one and the 49ers can pull away.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: When Amazon decided to offer the NFL.a huge amount of money so they could have the chance to broadcast a 'Black Friday' game, they had to be pretty happy with the game that was offered to them.

Both the broadcaster and NFL schedule makers would have anticipated this to be a leading AFC East Divisional clash, but instead of Aaron Rodgers, they will have Tim Boyle leading the New York Jets (4-6).

And instead of being a clash between two of the leading AFC East teams, Amazon will be featuring a Jets team that is barely clinging on to relevancy this season after losing three games in a row. Things had to change and the Zach Wilson era in New York looks to be officially over with the former First Round Draft Pick now the Number 3 Quarter Back on the depth chart behind Boyle and a recently signed Trevor Siemian.

Jets fans will be critical of the management for allowing this tough Defensive unit to be wasted by horrible play from the Quarter Back and the decision to not bring in another veteran after Rodgers went down with a season-ending injury looks to have backfired badly. Perhaps Tim Boyle is the answer, but his history in the NFL suggests not and he is going to have a tough day against the Miami Dolphins (7-3).

It was not the best performance from the Dolphins out of their Bye Week, but they did beat the Las Vegas Raiders and errors might have been down to the fact they were focusing on this Friday game. The Offensive unit made the mistakes, but Jalen Ramsey and the Defensive players more than did their part to beat the Raiders and are expected to shut down whatever kind of Offense the Jets try running with Boyle at Quarter Back.

The expectation will be that Tim Boyle has to lean on Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook and try to establish the run, but that will not be easy against this Miami Defensive Line. Instead, much like Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle may need to get the ball quickly into the hands of Hall out in space and hope the Running Back can pick up some big yards after the catch and make that some form of running game for the team.

Asking Tim Boyle to throw against this healthier Miami Secondary seems too much, especially with the Jets Offensive Line banged up. It should give the Dolphins a chance to pin back their ears and really get after Boyle whenever the Jets are in obvious passing situations and any mistake from the Quarter Back is likely going to be punished in more New York turnovers.

Neutrals tuning in should get plenty more consistency out of the Miami Offensive unit, although it will be a test for Tua Tagovailoa considering this is where the strength of the Jets lies. Some may see the 32 points next to Buffalo's name and think the Defensive unit are not up to much, but it is asking too much for any Defense to be out on the field over and over and trying to protect short fields.

The Dolphins might be able to have some joy pushing the ball on the ground, but Tua Tagovailoa and the passing game needs to be cleaner than it was in Week 11. They are still putting up good numbers and the Offensive Line is giving their Quarter Back some time, but Tua will know that this New York Secondary is not one to take too many risks against as he looks to bring Jayden Waddle and Tyreek Hill into the action.

Play-action and moving pieces on the Offensive side of the ball can make life tough for a Defensive unit to slow down, and Miami are expected to have enough success on this side of the ball to be in a position to cover this spread.

Ultimately, the feeling is that Tim Boyle will make similar mistakes to Zach Wilson and end up putting the Jets Defensive unit in a bind.

It becomes a vicious circle with Boyle then likely to be asked to make more throws to try and keep the Jets in the game, which will lead to more mistakes and the Miami Dolphins can win and cover as long as they are not as generous with their own errors as they were in the victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.

A backdoor cover could be in play, but another big Defensive stand from the Dolphins can see them get over the line with a big road win against this Divisional rival.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The loss to the Cleveland Browns and a backup Quarter Back meant big changes this past week. Matt Canada has long been criticised as Offensive Co-Ordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) and was fired after the 13-10 loss to the Browns, as Mike Tomlin looks to find an answer to what has been a season-long problem.

Despite being Offensively challenged, the Steelers may still feel they are strong enough to earn a spot in the AFC Wild Card, although chasing down the Baltimore Ravens cannot be ruled out.

Back to back road games is not ideal for any team in the NFL and it is even tougher when you have to face Divisional rivals in both. That is the test for the Pittsburgh Steelers as they prepare to face the Cincinnati Bengals (5-5), a team who have had a bit of extra time to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 11 of the season.

They were beaten by the Baltimore Ravens in that game, but worse for the Bengals is the loss of Joe Burrow at Quarter Back. Not many have great expectations for Cincinnati with Jake Browning's inexperience taking over for Burrow, a Quarter Back who has won a National Championship at College level and played in the Super Bowl in the pros.

Unsurprisingly there are plenty of confident statements being made about Browning's preparation for his first start in the NFL, but this is a good Steelers Defensive unit in front of the young Quarter Back. The Bengals are also going to be without Tee Higgins this week, while Ja'Marr Chase is not at full health and that makes it difficult to believe in the Bengals.

Joe Mixon is going to be important for the Bengals, but running the ball against the Pittsburgh Defensive Line will be more difficult than usual if they do not respect the ability of Jake Browning behind Center. A few throws may open things up on the ground, but even at full health, the Bengals may not have been able to grind the ball on the ground.

This all means it will be up to Browning to show that he is capable of leading the team in place of Joe Burrow. Any doubt in his play is going to mean Jake Browning is dealing with the Pittsburgh pass rush behind shaky Bengals Offensive Line play, while the injury-hit Steelers Secondary can make enough plays to stall drives.

A big question will be on the other side of the ball and trying to work out if the firing of Matt Canada will spark the Steelers.

The game plan should be pretty easy for the Steelers- with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, they will look to establish the run against the Bengals Defensive Line which has allowed recent opponents to average 5.1 yards per carry. These two players have been combining for some big yards on the ground in recent games, although the Steelers fans are hoping to see better from Kenny Pickett at Quarter Back.

Kenny Pickett should be well protected, while the expected ground gains should mean play-action can be employed early as the Steelers look to attack this Cincinnati Secondary. George Pickens may not be available, but the Pittsburgh Steelers may choose to try and expose some of the Defensive holes that Cincinnati have displayed, while Pickett can also try and get the ball to Warren in space and hope the Running Back can make some big yards after the catch.

There should be a balance to the Steelers Offensive play compared to what we have seen in recent weeks as the players look to show that it was Matt Canada's calls, rather than their own execution of those plays, that have held them back.

Pittsburgh won here last year, in Overtime, and they do have a chance to bounce back from the disappointing Week 11 defeat to the Cleveland Browns. The Defensive unit may make one or two plays against the inexperienced Quarter Back that helps set up the Steelers with strong opportunities to score points in short field situations.

Backing the Steelers as a road favourite does not feel that good, but the uncertainty around the Cincinnati Bengals does make Pittsburgh the play.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: A third loss in the 2023 season is not going to derail the plans of the Kansas City Chiefs (8-3), but Head Coach Andy Reid and his Staff will know they have things to work on. They won the Super Bowl last season thanks to a very strong Offensive unit, but Patrick Mahomes has not been getting the same level of support from those around him and that proved costly in the home defeat on Monday Night Football to the Philadelphia Eagles.

This not the time for panic with a number of miscues that the Chiefs made easy to turn around, but they will want to put things right pretty quickly. They have been very strong Defensively and it is that side of the ball that will feel largely responsible for the eight wins produced, so it won't take a lot to really get the Kansas City Chiefs motoring again.

They are on a short week having played on Monday and with this Divisional game set for Sunday, while the Las Vegas Raiders (5-6) have looked better under interim Head Coach Antonio Pierce since firing Josh McDaniels. Both home games played under Pierce have resulted in wins, while Aidan O'Connell was picked off in the End Zone in the 7 point loss to the Miami Dolphins last week.

However, Antonio Pierce will know his team will need to be a lot stronger than they were in that loss to Miami- the scoreboard might not show it, but the Dolphins dominated that day and it was only a number of turnovers that prevented Miami from winning by a margin much more in line with the expectations of the oddsmakers.

This Divisional game poses a significant challenge for the Raiders Offensively and they do not match up that well with the Kansas City Chiefs. You have to imagine they are going to try and feed Josh Jacobs as much as possible and the Running Back may pick up some yards on the ground, but Las Vegas cannot afford to fall a couple of scores behind and then need their inexperienced Quarter Back to try and make plays against this tough Chiefs Secondary.

A fierce pass rush makes Kansas City very tough to throw against and Aidan O'Connell may have a banged up Davante Adams in the line up too. It will mean needing to get others going, but it should be pointed out that the Raiders have scored just 29 points in their last couple of games against Defenses playing to a similar level to where the Kansas City Chiefs are.

Las Vegas will be going into their Bye Week after this game so can leave it all on the field, but the feeling is that they are going to need another big turnover day to keep this one competitive.

The Dolphins made mistakes and there is a cleaning up process taking place at Kansas City, but the Chiefs will believe they have the capabilities of moving the ball up and down the field. They do need a Receiver or two to step up alongside Travis Kelce and give Patrick Mahomes a consistent player to throw to, but that should be 'easier' to manage with Isiah Pacheco likely going to pick up from where he left off against the Eagles.

Andy Reid is not someone who loves to run the ball over and over, but Pacheco should be able to pick up some big gains on the ground and keep the Kansas City Chiefs in front of the chains. That should be key in helping Patrick Mahomes earn a little more time behind the Offensive Line, especially with the Quarter Back comfortable being able to move around and allow Receiving routes to develop down the field.

He has not been at his best of late, but Mahomes has had his numbers dip because of the inconsistent play of his Receivers. That does raise some doubts about the Chiefs covering a spread like this one, but the feeling is that the defeat on Monday Night Football focuses minds and a much better game is played all around, especially on the Offensive side of the ball.

Losing has not been a familiar feeling for the Chiefs in recent years and over the last two seasons they are 4-1 against the spread when playing after a defeat. They are also 2-1 against the spread against AFC West rivals and the question mark about how many points the Raiders can put on the scoreboard certainly gives the road team enough of an edge to be backed in this one.

Hopefully the Receivers have removed the teflon from the gloves this week as they will need much stronger hands to ensure the backdoor cover is not possible for the home team.

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: The AFC looks a loaded and deep Conference in 2023 and earning a Wild Card spot is going to be a challenge. The feeling is that ten wins will likely be needed to do that and that means the Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) are beginning to feel the pressure after consecutive losses.

They earn a primetime spot in Week 12 of the 2023 season and Head Coach Brandon Staley is going to be hoping for a big reaction from his players after showing his frustration to the gathered reporters following the defeat to the Green Bay Packers.

It feels like it gets much tougher for the Chargers in Week 12 as they prepare to host the Baltimore Ravens (8-3) who will be hoping this game offers them a chance to extend their lead in the AFC North before entering their Bye Week.

A big win over the Cinncinati Bengals on Thursday Night Football does mean the Ravens have had a few extra days of preparation time for this road game. That will help as the Offensive unit looks to find a way to replace Mark Andrews after the Tight End picked up a season ending injury in that win.

It takes away a big target from Lamar Jackson, who is also going to be looking forward to the Bye Week so he can rest up. The Quarter Back is not going to be sitting out this week and a late Bye can be beneficial with many believing the Ravens to be a genuine Super Bowl contender.

Lamar Jackson helps the Ravens run game with the threat he poses and big gains could be ripped off by Baltimore against this banged up Chargers Defensive Line which is allowing recent teams to pick up yards at 4.6 per carry. If they are not able to slop down Jackson, Gus Edwards and Keaton Michell, it is going to be a very long day for the Los Angeles Chargers on this side of the ball.

Slowing down the Ravens is going to be tough and that should mean Lamar Jackson is able to make a few big plays down the field, even without Andrews in the line up.

Isaiah Likely has flashed potential and will be getting a lot more targets, while it will be music to the ears of Lamar Jackson that the Chargers will be without Joey Bosa. Playing out of third and manageable should also mean Jackson has that touch more time to hit his Receivers against this Los Angeles Secondary which has allowed plenty of yards through the air.

An expectation of seeing a balanced Offensive unit makes the Ravens dangerous, while their Defense continues to play hard through the injuries.

While there have been some holes on the Baltimore Defensive Line that has seen teams pick up some big gains on the ground, the Los Angeles Offensive Line have been inconsistent. Recent games have been stronger as they look to get Austin Ekeler going as a runner, rather than a pass-catching Running Back, and it is key for the Chargers to have success establishing the run.

Moving the ball through Justin Herbert's arm and the banged up Receiving corps he is throwing too will be very difficult considering the level the Ravens Secondary have been operating at. Marlon Humphrey could be back for the Ravens with the extra time he has had between Week 11 and Week 12, while the Chargers have been inconsistent throwing the ball as the likes of Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer have moved onto the Injured Reserve, while Keenan Allen is fighting through the pain.

An inability to establish the run or being forced into obvious passing situations will mean Justin Herbert has to face a powerful Baltimore pass rush and it looks like a game that the Ravens should be able to dictate on both sides of the ball.

While the Ravens have not exactly been great road favourites to back, it should be noted that the Los Angeles Chargers have a losing record against the spread as the home underdog with Brandon Staley at the helm. There is a growing feeling that Staley is about to be fired as the Head Coach of the Chargers too and that can see players just drop their heads, while it is far from ideal to be distracted before facing this strong looking Baltimore team.

Covering on the road will not be easy, but Baltimore can be asked to lay the points over Thanksgiving Weekend where the road favourites have been good through Thursday and Friday.

MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Dallas Cowboys - 12.5 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2016 (November 26-27)

We head back into the domestic football action this weekend after the Champions League and Europa League took centre stage during the week.

The football is going to start coming thick and fast at this time of the season with two games a week something of a routine for many of the top clubs going right through to the first week of January.

After a really tough November I mentioned a couple of days ago that I simply wanted an end to the month where I could reduce some of the negative numbers and build some momentum to take into December and a busy month ahead.

It was much better than that this past week as I have got all the way back into the black with a 14-3-1 run in the Champions League and Europa League games. Hopefully I can keep that momentum going through this weekend and have a chance to put a positive November together which will give me more than a little positive mood to take into December and far exceed what I was expecting.


Burnley v Manchester City Pick: The Premier League opens at Turf Moor this weekend as Burnley look to bounce back from an embarrassing 4-0 loss at West Brom on Monday Night Football and maintain a solid record at home in the League. Burnley have lost 1 of their last 6 games at Turf Moor in the Premier League and even that loss to Arsenal came thanks to a last minute goal in what had been a competitive match before that.

Even better for Burnley is the fact they have won 3 of their last 4 League games here to keep clear of the bottom three, but it will be a big test to contain a Manchester City team that has found goals no problem in many away games this season. They are coming in off impressive League wins at West Brom and Crystal Palace while Manchester City moved through to the Champions League Second Round with a hard fought draw at Borussia Monchengladbach on Wednesday.

That game in Germany has to worry me in terms of how much energy Manchester City can produce in an early kick off against a local rival who are going to love to show up one of the big Premier League teams. Burnley will work hard and defend in numbers, but there is so much quality in the Manchester City team going forward that it is hard to expect them not to find a way to break down their hosts.

However the Manchester City defence have looked far from comfortable and Burnley have shown they can score goals at home having done so against the likes of Liverpool and Everton here in the League. Burnley didn't score against Arsenal, but had a couple of half chances in that one, while you can't ignore the fact that Manchester City have conceded goals at Swansea City, Stoke City and Crystal Palace on their travels.

It looks a big price to see both teams score in the early kick off as Burnley take advantage of any fatigue in the Manchester City squad and also are likely to be a danger from set pieces. I'd be stunned if Manchester City can't score here with their own quality and it looks a big price for both teams scoring in the early game.


Leicester City v Middlesbrough Pick: Earning their spot in the Second Round of the Champions League as winners of their Group has been a fantastic achievement for Leicester City although they weren't exactly in the most taxing of Groups. Claudio Ranieri will be hoping they can take that form into the Premier League where Leicester City have been far too inconsistent this season, although being back at home could be important.

They have mainly struggled away from home, but Leicester City have won half of their League games at the King Power Stadium and come into this one with 3 wins from their last 4 home games.

It will be a difficult test for Leicester City against a Middlesbrough team who have proven tough to beat in the Premier League but particularly away from home. Draws at Arsenal and Manchester City are impressive results and Middlesbrough might have got more at The Emirates Stadium with better composure in front of goal.

Goals have been a problem for them and it is the reason I believe Leicester City will get the better of Middlesbrough this weekend. The Foxes have only failed to score in 1 of their last 9 home games in all competitions and Leicester City have scored twice in 5 of those games. Getting to that number will be tough for Middlesbrough to peg back, but I also think there is a chance that Leicester City can secure the three points with a solitary strike.

They do have a good home record against Middlesbrough in recent years too and I will back Ranieri's team to find a way to break down a tough Boro team in this one.


Liverpool v Sunderland Pick: You aren't going to become rich backing Liverpool at short odds to beat Sunderland this weekend as the layers are taking no chances with their pricing on the home side. Even the Asian Handicap needs Liverpool to win by at least three goals to have a chance of coming back a winner and it is hard to feel good about that at odds on.

I do think Liverpool are much better than Sunderland but David Moyes will have to try and get his side to dig in and prevent the home team being out of sight by half time. Wins in back to back Premier League games will give them confidence, but they haven't faced a team as good as Liverpool in recent away games and weathering the storm is going to be difficult.

As much as Moyes wants Sunderland to become harder to beat, The Black Cats have conceded in the first 20 minutes of 3 of their last 6 games in all competitions. That is a problem against a Liverpool side that plays with a very high tempo early in games which has given them the platform to put their wins together.

Prior to Manchester United's visit to Anfield I made a point that teams need to contain Liverpool for the first 30 minutes if they are going to beat this version of their team. Fast starts have been a feature of the Liverpool performance, but their style is difficult to maintain over 90 minutes and Sunderland have to stay with them early.

This is the sixth time Liverpool are playing a Premier League game at Anfield this season and they have scored twice in 4 of their previous 5 games here. The only points dropped is when Manchester United went in with a goalless draw at half time in their visit to Anfield, but Leicester City, Hull City, West Brom and Watford have almost been out of contention by half time.

I fear that might happen to a Sunderland team that have conceded early goals to Manchester City and Arsenal this season and backing Liverpool to score at least twice in the first half is a huge price. Liverpool have managed to do that in half of their Premier League games this season and in 4 of 5 at Anfield and that looks a big price being offered by Coral.

Sunderland will defend deep, but they are missing some key defenders in this one and it might be a long day for them which begins by struggling to contain Liverpool in the first half. Teams of a similar standard have been blown away by Liverpool early in games and I will back the home team to hit their numbers at Coral.


Swansea City v Crystal Palace Pick: Swansea City have made a recent change in the manager's office and the suggestion is that Crystal Palace may be looking for a new manager if they lose again this weekend. Alan Pardew has masked his performance as manager at Crystal Palace with a run to the FA Cup Final back in May and he was was moments from winning that competition, but the League form in 2016 has been remarkably poor.

This looks a good chance to turn the page and start putting in some wins and moving up the Premier League table. Swansea City may have drawn last weekend at Everton, but they haven't been very good at home where they are expected to get forward and attack.

I do think they can create chances against the Crystal Palace defence, but I also think the visitors have some quality attacking players who can expose the issues Swansea City have had at the back. Both teams have scored and conceded in huge numbers in recent weeks and an early goal could really open this one up.

Crystal Palace have conceded three times at Leicester City and Burnley in their last couple of away games, while Swansea City have conceded at least twice in 5 of their last 6 at home. I do think both teams will score once and the importance of both teams securing the three points may see both Swansea City and Crystal Palace take a few more risks than some think and lead to a fairly high-scoring game and one that might not be expected.


Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: It looks like Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur will be going into this London derby in contrasting forms and confidence and the layers tend to agree by placing the home team as a short favourite to win this game. On current form it is hard to argue with that as Chelsea have been scoring goals for fun, but also putting together plenty of clean sheets to move to the top of the Premier League.

Personally I can't back Chelsea at the prices considering Tottenham Hotspur are still unbeaten in the Premier League, but it is hard to see how the away team can pick themselves up after the disappointing end to the Champions League campaign. Defensive injuries and suspensions are a big concern and Hugo Lloris is going to need to produce a huge game to help Tottenham Hotspur avoid defeat.

Chelsea have been clinical in front of goal during their 6 game winning run in the League especially at Stamford Bridge where they have scored 12 goals in 3 games. Antonio Conte will feel his side can produce chances in this one and Tottenham Hotspur have not defended that well in recent games which is going to be an issue for them on Saturday.

I can see Chelsea definitely creating chances and scoring goals and I like the chances of seeing three goals combined at a bigger price than the home win. Despite the clean sheets, I do think Chelsea have given teams opportunities and Tottenham Hotspur have scored in their last 3 away games in all competitions which suggests they can play their part in this one.

The home team have been creating plenty themselves and Tottenham Hotspur's defending in recent games combined with Chelsea's scoring at Stamford Bridge might even see The Blues reach the three goal total on their own. 6 of the last 7 fixtures between Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur at Stamford Bridge have ended with three goals including the last 4 in a row and I will back goals in this one.

Tottenham Hotspur might have to attack to protect a defence missing half of the back four and I think the Chelsea run of clean sheets have been something of a mirage at times. Backing at least three goals should have every chance of coming in at a bigger price than backing Chelsea to win and that is my angle here.


Watford v Stoke City Pick: I was disappointed by some of the performances that Stoke City have produced this season but they have been better in recent weeks and should have got more out of their fixture with Bournemouth last weekend having missed a penalty. That came early in the second half and may have seen Stoke City turn around that game, and goals have been something of an issue for them despite some decent players in the final third.

They might have a little more success against a Watford team that are producing results with a new system in place but one that is not keeping too many clean sheets. Watford had a decent run of late but then conceded six at Liverpool and have only kept 1 clean sheet in their home games so far in the 2016/17 season.

I expect Stoke City to test them and the layers might be underestimating the chance of seeing goals in this one. That is because Watford are certainly capable of scoring goals and they have managed to do that in all but 2 League games this season. At Vicarage Road Watford have been more potent in front of goal with 3 of their last 4 games seeing the side score at least twice and this feels like a game where both teams will score and so seeing three goals is a distinct possibility.

It does have to be said that this is an early kick off on Sunday which can see players take their time getting the sleep out of the eyes and being able to produce some of their better football. Stoke City away games haven't been free flowing in terms of goals either, but I think Watford can drag them into a game and I will back at least three goals to be scored in this one.


Arsenal v Bournemouth Pick: Going into November it was clear that Arsenal had three tough matches to open the month, but there might have been an expectation of getting more than three draws. Playing Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Paris Saint-Germain were all difficult games, but Arsenal fans won't be expecting a setback against Bournemouth in front of the television cameras on Sunday.

This does look a good game for Arsenal to get back to winning ways because Eddie Howe has a similar style of play but the home side have the extra quality. Unlike many teams that come to The Emirates Stadium, Bournemouth won't sit back in numbers but may allow Arsenal to play their football.

That is partly the reason Bournemouth have struggled when facing the best teams in the Premier League as they simply don't have the same level of performers as those teams. All credit to Howe for sticking to his principles as it is a reason that he is linked with big jobs like Arsenal and England which will potentially be in his future over the next eighteen months if Bournemouth continue taking steps forward as a club.

However those principles means it is hard for Bournemouth to contain the top clubs and I am not surprised they have suffered one-sided losses to Manchester United and Manchester City in the League this season. That style has also seen Bournemouth lose 8 of their 11 League defeats since August 2015 by at least two goals and I think they may have some issues containing Arsenal.

It is hard to ignore the fact that Arsenal have drawn 3 of their last 4 at The Emirates Stadium including against Middlesbrough, but I expect the home team to have more spaces to exploit this weekend. I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap knowing a narrow win will return half the stakes and I think Arsenal likely match their 2-0 wins over Bournemouth from both Premier League games last season.


Manchester United v West Ham United Pick: The Thursday night win over Feyenoord was much needed for Manchester United as they finally turned a good performance into a good result. They are in the midst of a four game run at Old Trafford and Manchester United will look to keep the momentum going as we get set to enter a busy December.

West Ham United will become a familiar opponent over the next few days as they visit Manchester United in the Premier League and days later will return for an English Football League Cup Quarter Final. They will be hoping they can find their feet away from home as The Hammers continue to concede goals at an alarming rate on their travels and that will be an issue if Manchester United have started to find their eye in front of goal.

One concern has to be that Manchester United have won 1 of their last 4 Premier League games after coming out of the Europa League. However that did come after Match Day 4 when beating Swansea City 1-3 away from home after playing in Turkey and being home following a home game should mean the short turnaround is less of an issue.

Some will say Stoke City earned a 1-1 draw in that spot, but I've no idea how Manchester United didn't win that game and I like the home team to make it two wins in a row. They should be able to create chances against a West Ham United team who have conceded at least twice in all but one away game in the Premier League and who have lost 4 of 6 away Premier League games by at least two goals.

With Winston Reid missing it could be a bigger problem for West Ham United to contain this Manchester United team and ultimately I can see the home team pulling off a win by a couple of goals. You can't discount West Ham United being able to play their part with their attacking threat that has scored in all but one away game, but I think Manchester United prove too good before they have to do it all again in a few days time.


Aston Villa v Cardiff City Pick: Both Steve Bruce and Neil Warnock have recently arrived as new managers at Aston Villa and Cardiff City respectively in a bid to revive the fortunes of clubs that have been underachieving. They have similarities in the starts made at their new clubs with both Aston Villa and Cardiff City beginning to earn positive results which will see them move away from the bottom three.

Aston Villa are slightly further along, but Bruce will be aware that his team need to show more in front of goal if they are going to put a long winning run together to shoot up the League table. They have scored in each of the 6 games Bruce has been in charge of, but Aston Villa have scored more than once only twice and that is a problem when facing a Cardiff City team that have scored in 5 of their last 6 games.

Backing both teams to score in this one is perhaps an appealing angle, but I have been impressed with most of the recent Aston Villa performances under their new manager. They should have beaten Brighton last week which would have given the players a huge boost of confidence and Cardiff City are still trying to find some consistent performances away from home.

The price on both teams to score is a good one, but at a very similar price you can back Aston Villa to win this game. I do think the home team have a slight edge and have just started turning in wins at Villa Park with 2 in a row. It will be tight and a Cardiff City goal is a problem, but I think Aston Villa will find the opportunities to score twice in this one and will pick up three more important points.


Brighton v Fulham Pick: It wasn't the best Brighton performance of the season when they had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Aston Villa, but that is not a bad result when not at your best. Generally they have been able to perform very well at home and Brighton are deservedly the favourites to win this game.

You don't want to dismiss Fulham easily considering they have lost just 1 away game in the League all season, but this might be the toughest away game they would have played outside of Aston Villa. Of course they were beaten at Villa Park and I do think Brighton can earn a narrow win in this one too.

It won't be an easy game and Brighton will have to weather some Fulham pressure but they have shown they can perform much better at home than they did against Aston Villa. I expect a response from that game and Chris Hughton hasn't overseen too many back to back disappointing performances at The Amex Stadium.

I expected Brighton to be shorter in the market than they are and I think they earn a narrow win over Fulham this weekend.


Derby County v Norwich City Pick: There isn't the same expectation for goals in this game from the layers as I have had and I believe Derby County and Norwich City can combine for at least three goals shared out on Saturday. Earlier this season Derby County had been struggling for goals, but they have scored 8 in their last 3 League games and have scored at least twice in each game.

The defending has remained pretty solid, but Derby County are facing a Norwich City team who have scored in 7 of their last 8 away games in all competitions. It is hard to see how Norwich City will keep Derby County from scoring considering they have conceded at least twice in 4 of their last 6 away games in all competitions and their last 7 away games in the Championship have featured at least three goals each time.

This is a fixture that has produced goals in the recent past and I do think both teams will find their way to score in this one. Derby County have been scoring plenty themselves and could perhaps cover this number on their own, but I do think Norwich City will play their part in this game and help secure the three goals combined to bring home a winner.


Preston North End v Burton Albion Pick: In a Division where teams can beat and be defeated by most others in the League, Preston North End might be one of the more inconsistent ones that can be hard to trust on a week by week basis. Their 4-1-4 record at Deepdale kind of highlights those issues, but this looks a good moment to back Preston North End.

They have not won either of their last 2 home games, but are facing a Burton Albion team who have lost 4 of their last 5 away games and have been conceding far too many goals on their travels in recent weeks.

A lack of goals hasn't helped Burton Albion either and they might just be struggling to reach the levels required on a weekly basis in the Championship. It is no surprise for a team that has had back to back promotions through the Divisions that they have hit a wall of sorts and I think Preston North End can take advantage.

Preston North End are shorter than Reading were a week ago, but I think The Royals were too big and this side are about the right price to win this game. I will back Preston North End to earn the three points this weekend.


Reading v Bristol City Pick: One of the teams in the Championship in very strong form at the moment is Reading and I think they have every chance of keeping the momentum going. They have won 4 in a row in the League and that includes their last couple of games at the Majedski Stadium, while Reading are also facing a Bristol City team who have been struggling of late.

A team who have lost 3 of their last 4 overall and 3 of their last 4 away games has to have had some of the confidence sapped from them. That is where Bristol City find themselves going into the weekend and The Robins also have a poor record in Reading where they have lost 4 in a row.

It does feel like Reading are catching Bristol City at the right time with the away side hitting a poor patch of form and I think the price on the home win is very tempting.

I do think the Reading form is very good at the moment and I will back them to win this weekend to continue their rise up the League table. They should be full of confidence and they should arguably be much shorter a price than they are as they look to become the latest to get the better of Bristol City.

MY PICKS: Burnley-Manchester City Both Teams Score @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Leicester City @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Liverpool Over 1.5 First Half Goals @ 2.45 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Swansea City-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Chelsea-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-Stoke City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.09 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aston Villa @ 1.85 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brighton @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Derby County-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Preston North End @ 2.15 William Hill (2 Units)
Reading @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)

November Update: 33-32-3, + 3.70 Units (133 Units Staked, + 2.78% Yield)

October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 102-107-5, + 4.94 Units (396 Units Staked, + 1.25% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

NBA November Picks 2016 (November 21-27)

The NBA season has been a little up and down for the picks, but that happens early in the season as teams are still finding their feet. Just think about it, this season is almost a month old and there are still five months to go until the Play Offs begin and seven months until the NBA Finals begin.

There is no need for any panic for teams at this moment and you seem to see more ups and downs in performances at this stage of the season than you will when you get past the All-Star Break and teams start seeing the Play Offs on the horizon.

I am going to put this week in this thread and I will have a short thread for the remaining days in November next week. Picks will be placed here daily, if there are picks that convince me they are the right play,


Monday 21st November
There were some tough moments last week, but this month is still in a position to finish with a winning record and start moving this season in the positive direction.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: It is still difficult to know exactly what you are going to get out of the Memphis Grizzlies who have a winning record on the season but have struggled to find their identity. There has been a clear decision to try and improve Offensively which has shown sparks of life, although it has been the effort Defensively which has helped the Grizzlies extend their winning run to four games in a row.

They are likely going to need another strong Defensive outing if they are going to maintain the winning run in a tough road game against the Charlotte Hornets who have shown they are amongst the best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Grizzlies will head to Charlotte without Chandler Parsons who has had an injury filled start to the his career with his new team, but Memphis have held their last two opponents to 71 points or fewer.

Memphis also have a big win over the LA Clippers who have looked one of the best teams in the entire NBA and the Grizzlies are allowing an average of 88 points per game over their last five games. They have looked better on both ends of the court and are going to challenge a Charlotte Hornets team who have had to dig deep in some close games recently.

It does look like the Grizzlies have an edge when it comes to the rebounding battle with the likes of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph splitting their minutes on the court. Their three point Defensive efforts are also going to be vital for Memphis against a Charlotte team that have shown to be very strong from beyond the arc with that likely to be a key in deciding the spread.

The Hornets are very much a team that looks to open things up for the three point shot and if they are hitting it can be tough for the Grizzlies to stay with them. However if Memphis can contest those shots and make it difficult as they have in recent games for opponents then they have every chance of earning an upset on the road.

Charlotte are 7-2 against the spread as the favourite this season, but they are 5-1 in those games where they are asked to cover between 1 and 2.5 points. This is a lot more points to cover against a team that is playing well at the moment and I will take the points with Memphis to keep this one close.


Tuesday 22nd November
I've had a few good starts to the week only to fall away in the first month of the NBA season to not get excited about one win, so hopefully I can back it up on Tuesday.

There are only four games to be played on Tuesday, but I actually have a play from each of those so this week could be decided by how those pan out for me.

Portland Trail Blazers @ New York Knicks Pick: When the likes of Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose were brought in to play alongside Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis, most New York Knicks fans would have been excited and wary at the same time. If Noah and Rose could rediscover some of the lost mojo in their final days with the Chicago Bulls then the Knicks could be amongst the best teams in the Eastern Conference.

The fear was injuries and chemistry issues and while the former has yet to rear its ugly head, the latter has been a problem. So much so that the Knicks have already had a player only meeting this season despite it being a little under a month old and New York responded by blowing out the Atlanta Hawks at home.

Playing at Madison Square Garden has been much more effective for the Knicks than what they have produced on the road and they actually go for a fifth straight win here. Wins over Detroit and Atlanta show they are not just picking on weaker teams, but the Knicks are going to be tested by the Portland Trail Blazers who snapped a three game losing run by beating the Brooklyn Nets on the road.

Outside of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, the Portland Trail Blazers have struggled for consistency but the Knicks will struggle to contain those two players. However New York do have a significant edge on the boards while the Knicks have been a little better hitting their three pointers and general Field Goal percentages.

The team who controls their turnovers are likely to be the one that wins this one, but Portland have to show focus with a big game at the NBA Champions tomorrow night. That is another factor that can give New York the edge as they have played better Defense at home than on the road and I think the Knicks can move to 4-1 against the spread in home games against teams with a winning record. New York are 11-5-1 against the spread in their last seventeen at home against the Trail Blazers and I will back them to cover in another home win on Tuesday.


New Orleans Pelicans @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: The New Orleans Pelicans have been looking for some effective support for Anthony Davis ever since the season started and the return of Jrue Holiday might have come at the right time. Personal issues meant Holiday was given a chance to take some time off, but he has returned and has helped spark the Pelicans to back to back wins.

Holiday has been on a minutes limit since returning to the rotation, but there has been a few days off since New Orleans last played and those numbers could be extended. He has been a big part of the improved bench play and the Pelicans may feel they are catching the Atlanta Hawks at the right time with the home team losing two games in a row.

The improvement in recent New Orleans games have seen them looking after the ball much more effectively than they had been and they also can give Atlanta some problems when it comes to defending the three point line. That can open things up for Davis, although he will be battled by Dwight Howard for dominance in the paint and that could be a key match up as either player getting into early foul trouble could be an issue.

Atlanta have just lost some of their spark from earlier in the season and the last three teams they have faced have each reached triple digits. They were really bad in a loss to the New York Knicks on Sunday but this is a team that has performed better at home so far this season and needs to be respected.

The Hawks are 6-1 against the spread at home but only 1-1 when it comes to facing a team with a losing record like they will on Tuesday. A big game at Indiana might also take some of the focus away from this game while the New Orleans Pelicans are 3-1 against the spread when given at least 7 points this season. In this one they are getting 8 points and that looks a lot more a team that have shown improvement against one that might just struggle to get out of a recent slump.

New Orleans have also gone 4-1 against the spread in their last five trips to Atlanta and I do think they can make enough plays at both ends of the court to keep this one close. The Pelicans have to defend the three point arc as they have been and try to keep the Hawks from dominating the boards, but I feel they can do that and will take the points on offer.


Chicago Bulls @ Denver Nuggets Pick: No one really knew what would happen with the Chicago Bulls when they made some significant changes to the roster this summer. Bringing in Dwyane Wade was huge and the signing of Rajon Rondo was one that could have gone either way. So far both veterans have accepted they have joined Jimmy Butler's team and that has sparked the Chicago Bulls into looking like a real threat in the Eastern Conference.

A road trip is a great way to build team bonds and the Bulls have shown they are on the same page as one another with three wins from four games on what is a six game road trip. Two games left against teams with losing records suggests Chicago can keep the momentum going, although both the Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers are no doormats.

The Nuggets do have a losing record but this is not a team that has been blown out too often and has won two of their last three home games. That includes a win over the Utah Jazz, although teams with winning records have been a big challenge for the Denver Nuggets to face.

There have been a couple of keys which have helped Chicago go on a solid run to open the season and it all begins with playing effectively on the Defensive side of the court. They might not be as strong at that end as they were under Tom Thibodeau, but Chicago have brought into what is required from them and have been busy on that side of the court to slow down the points output of opponents.

Playing Denver will give them a different look though as this is a team that is highly effective on the glass and who are averaging 107 points per game at home. However the Nuggets have a losing record here because they have not been able to come up with the big stops Defensively and that is an issue with Chicago being able to expose Defensive shortcomings in previous games. When the Bulls have met a team that struggles on that side of the court, they have been able to make big Offensive plays and that could be a key here.

Turnovers are important in these tight games and that is where Chicago have been better than Denver in recent games and could be a difference maker. Chicago don't have a good recent record in Denver as they are 0-4 against the spread in their last four visits, but I think the Bulls have been a solid small favourite to back and have performed well against teams with losing records they have been expected to beat.

It will be a tight game going into the Fourth Quarter and likely comes down to one or two big stops down the stretch, the stops I expect Chicago to make so I will back them to cover this number in another road win.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Lakers Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder and the LA Lakers made better than expected starts to the season, but the last couple of weeks have been more difficult. Neither team is under 0.500 for the season, but Oklahoma City have lost five of their last seven games and the Lakers have lost three of their last four.

With the first of a back to back on slate, both the Thunder and the Lakers will be looking to get moving in a positive direction in this one but the injury to D'Angelo Russell has come at a bad time for the home team. There is no indication whether Russell will be good to go in this one, but he was hampered when struggling in the home loss to the Chicago Bulls and facing Russell Westbrook is not going to be easy for the Lakers.

Westbrook has had a number of triple-doubles already this season, but he has admitted he needs to play better if the Thunder are to achieve their goals. It will be tough for him to do it on his own and I am not surprised the Oklahoma City Thunder are looking to trade for some support for him with Rudy Gay most heavily linked with a move.

Scoring points hasn't really been a problem for Oklahoma City, but they are struggling from a Defensive point of view. With the Lakers having similar issues, this has all the makings of a high scoring game and it does feel like Oklahoma City will have an edge in that sense with a playmaker like Westbrook tough for the Lakers to match.

The big concern for the Thunder has to be the poor Defense they have shown against the three point shot and that is an area where the Lakers have thrived. That will give the home team a chance to stay with Oklahoma City while they have also gotten some solid production from the bench which could be important for them.

It might feel I am leaning towards the Lakers with the points in this one, but I think it is a tough spot for them especially if Russell can't play. They face the Golden State Warriors twice in a row after this one including on Wednesday which might be taking away some of the focus from a young group of players who want to test themselves against the very best rather than a team that is just 2-5 over their last seven games.

Looking after the ball is going to be key for both teams but I do think Westbrook calling himself out will result in a big game in Los Angeles where so many expected him to end up before he signed his contract extension with Oklahoma City. The Thunder have surprised the LA Clippers at the Staples Center already this season and I think they can perhaps take advantage of a Lakers team looking ahead and I will back Oklahoma City to cover these points in the win.


Wednesday 23rd November
Yesterday was a little frustrating because both the Chicago Bull and Oklahoma City Thunder had chances to win their games which would have given the picks a winning day. Thankfully the first two picks came in as winners as I look for a winning record on Wednesday.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: After a slow start to the season, the Memphis Grizzlies have shown some real improvement of late to move up the standings. They are getting it done at both ends of the court, but the Grizzlies can't afford to overlook a Philadelphia 76ers team who have been much better than advertised through the first month of the season.

The Grizzlies have won five in a row though including an upset win over the Charlotte Hornets on Monday night. There has to be excitement at the way Memphis were able to take away Nicolas Batum and Kemba Walker in that win, but they have to change tact in this one because the front court is the bigger threat that Philadelphia have in their roster rather then the back court.

Even with that in mind, I do think the Grizzlies will have the edge when it comes to the rebounding battle and a healthier team have started to become very effective from the three point line. Recent wins have also come thanks to an impressive improvement on the Defensive side of the court as Memphis head into this game having given up an average of 85 points per game in their last five games.

I have to respect a Philadelphia team that have won three of their last four games and who have won four in a row at home with all of those wins coming as the underdog. The 76ers are still having some issues Defensively, but they have shown they can score plenty of points although that will be tested by this Memphis team who have been playing at a high level over the last couple of weeks.

And for all the positives of the Philadelphia record, they are only 1-2 against the spread at home when playing a team with a winning record. I can see Mike Conley being a big difference maker for the road team in the back court and helping Memphis make enough plays in the Fourth Quarter to come through with a win by at least five points here.


Toronto Raptors @ Houston Rockets Pick: Both the Houston Rockets and Toronto Raptors have winning records on the season, but they are entering this game with different mindsets. The Houston Rockets have won three in a row and look to be settled into what Mike D'Antoni wants from them, but the Toronto Raptors have lost four of their last five games and have been having a few issues they need to resolve.

Those defeats for the Raptors have mainly come against some of the better teams in the NBA and they are facing another big test on Wednesday. One of the big problems for the Raptors is their effort on the Defensive side of the court having allowed at least 100 points in eight straight games.

It is an area where Houston will think they can expose any vulnerabilities as they are averaging 109 points per game at home this season. James Harden has been in perfect harmony with the system D'Antoni has put together and Houston have the shooters to find the open shots with Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon all capable on any given day.

The Rockets should have their way from the Field, but Toronto have been solid defending the three point arc and I do think that could be a key for the game. The Rockets are a team that will look to take plenty of shots from beyond the arc and have been effective at doing that, but they haven't defended it as well and Toronto could stay in the game with their own three point shooting.

However it is Houston who should edge the rebounding battle and the Rockets also have looked after the ball a little better than Toronto while also getting more production from the bench. The return of Patrick Beverley gives them a Defender who can challenge both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan who are the biggest threats in the Raptors rotation and it might help the Rockets make enough plays to pull away in this one.

The Raptors do have a poor 2-6-1 record against the spread in their last nine games in Houston, but they are 4-0 against the spread this season in road games against teams with winning records. However I think the Rockets are scoring too many points and playing well enough on the Defensive side of the court to make some big stops in the Fourth Quarter which will allow them to pull away.

The last three home Houston games have seen the Rockets pull away for wins by 17, 17 and 9 points and I will back the Rockets to cover this number.


Friday 25th November
Thanksgiving Day is usually reserved for American Football and the NBA is smart enough to know they aren't going to win that ratings battle so give their teams the night off. It is a one day break before a huge schedule on Friday which is played through the day and I have a number of picks for today.

San Antonio Spurs @ Boston Celtics Pick: Two of the hottest teams in the NBA meet in the early game on Friday as the San Antonio Spurs look to move to 9-0 on the road against a Boston Celtics team which has won three in a row. The Spurs have dominated the Celtics in their recent games and they have a 4-1 record against the spread in the last five games while they are 12-3-1 record against the spread in their last sixteen games in Boston.

It is all about which of these teams is able to dictate their style of play on the other which will decide who is going to come out on top. The Spurs have been very good from the Field, but the Defensive side of the court is one of Boston's strengths, while the Celtics haven't previously shown the Offensive consistency that can challenge a Spurs team that hasn't played so well on that side of the court.

The Boston Celtics also hold one of the better Defensive units when it comes to protecting against the three point shot which is going to be tested the fullest by the Spurs who have the best shooting from that range so far this season. With the Celtics likely to be stronger on the boards, the three point shooting could be the deciding factor in this one but I do think San Antonio are smart enough to find the open man to knock down these shots.

They have also been protecting the ball better than Boston and I think the Spurs are going to be a little too good for the Celtics here and I will back them to continue their strong record against the Celtics. It's likely to be a close game with both teams in good form, but I like San Antonio to cover here.


Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The Toronto Raptors have dominated the Milwaukee Bucks in recent games including blowing them out by an average of 16 points per game while sweeping them last season. They did lose four of their previous five games before winning at the Houston Rockets, although the Milwaukee Bucks had hardly been in special form themselves after losing five of six games before narrowly beating Orlando.

The Bucks are one of the younger teams in the NBA but the expectation was that they would show improvement this season although you can't be surprised that they have also been inconsistent. If they want to win this game, they have to bring their shooting to the table because it is going to be tough to slow down a Toronto team that have been hitting a high percentage from the field and have started to get more from players not called DeMar DeRozan.

There has also been an improvement in the three point shooting from the Raptors, but the bigger challenge for them will be winning enough battles on the glass to prevent the Milwaukee Bucks having second chance shooting. That won't be easy, but Toronto have also shown improvement in that regard in recent games and that should give them enough of an edge to win this game on the road.

Protecting against turnovers is going to be important for both teams but the mental edge has to be with Toronto having gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games in Milwaukee. I do like the stronger shooting from the Raptors to come through in this one and they look to have a little bit more consistency in their performances than the Milwaukee Bucks which can make the difference in a close game.

While this looks like a game that is going to come down to the Fourth Quarter to decide it, I do like the Toronto Raptors to make a few more plays and come through with another win and cover in Milwaukee.


Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: A poor first half saw the Memphis Grizzlies in a big hole when they last played, but they rallied in the Fourth Quarter and eventually prevailed in double Overtime to beat the Philadelphia 76ers on the road. That made it six straight wins for the Grizzlies who have forgotten the poor start to the season they made and look much stronger on both ends of the court.

They return home having played five of their last six games on the road, but Memphis are back on the road tomorrow as they begin a home and home series with the Miami Heat. However being home for Thanksgiving would have been really good for the players and I expect they will come out and give the Heat all they can handle.

It has been a difficult season for the Miami Heat so far and their 4-10 record is actually far below expectations despite going through a transition from the Big Three who all are absent for one reason or another. LeBron James has gone home and won a title, Dwyane Wade also returned home this past summer and Chris Bosh is a long-term injury who potentially is going to have his NBA career ended by blood clots in the leg.

The Heat look like they could be shorthanded for at least the road game in Memphis and they have been struggling badly in the last couple of weeks. With the Grizzlies much improved from a Defensive point of view, it is going to be difficult for Miami to get their Offense on track without some key players in the rotation while their three point Defense could be exposed in this one.

Hassan Whiteside has at least helped Miami be strong on the boards, but he is going to be challenged by Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in this one and could be one of the more difficult match ups the Center faces. Miami have struggled against turnovers and they have a 0-5 record against the spread in their last five visits to the Grizzlies and I just can't see that changing with the way both teams have been playing.

I am looking for Memphis to make some big stops Defensively which gives them a chance to pull away in this one and I will back the Grizzlies again this week and look for them to cover this with a win by close to double digits.


New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: Last season there was no doubt the Portland Trail Blazers overachieved on their way to the Western Conference Semi Finals, but they look to be a team taking a step back this time around. While Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum give them a very Offensive back court, the Trail Blazers have simply not been able to control the Defensive side of the court.

Portland have lost five of their last six games and they were embarrassed by the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last game with Kevin Love scoring 34 points in the First Quarter on his own. The Trail Blazers have seen their average points per game allowed swell to 113 points over the course of the season but that number has reached 118 points per game in their last five games.

The Trail Blazers have struggled to do much defending in recent games and they are going to be challenged by the New Orleans Pelicans who have been trending in a positive direction. Anthony Davis has continued to produce the big numbers, but he has to be excited about the return of Jrue Holiday which has given the Pelicans another Offensive punch.

Recent games suggest the New Orleans Pelicans should have plenty of success when it comes to scoring points, but they have also become a little stronger Defensively which can give them a chance to earn an upset here. While Portland have scored plenty of points, it can be tough when games are close to continue making the plays if there is little faith with the way the Defensive side of the court is being operated and it could be another difficult game for the Trail Blazers.

New Orleans have been looking after the ball much better recently and you can't ignore Portland being 1-6 against the spread at home this season. They are 0-3 against the spread when hosting a team with a losing record and I like the chances of the Pelicans to snap their 0-4 record against the spread in their last four visits to Portland and will take the points being offered.


Golden State Warriors @ LA Lakers Pick: The LA Lakers quickly found out that embarrassing the Golden State Warriors will not be forgotten by arguably the best team in the NBA. After beating them by 20 points earlier this month, the Lakers visited the Warriors and were crushed by 43 points and gave up a ridiculous 149 points in that game.

It must have been an enjoyable Thanksgiving Day for the Lakers players knowing they are going to be hosting Golden State on Friday.

That loss at The Oracle Arena did come on a back to back, but it was also a shorthanded Lakers team which might not change in a couple of days. D'Angelo Russell has been ruled out but Julius Randle could sit again which will mean Luke Walton has to really try and find holes in the team where he excelled as an Assistant Head Coach last season.

The Warriors should be able to take advantage for the second time in a row against the Lakers as their big players are all focused and got their eye in from the field. The three point shot deserted them in the loss at the Staples Center earlier this month, but Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Kevin Durant have found their feet from that range and I am not sure the Lakers can do enough to prevent Golden State hitting their marks.

This is an unselfish team that will make the extra pass to find the open man and I do think they will be able to score a lot of points again in this one. Golden State have been playing better Defensively in recent games and they have been winning the rebounding battle which allows them to get into transition quickly across the court while they have been turning the ball over to create fast break points.

The Warriors have improved to 11-5 against the spread in the last sixteen against the LA Lakers and I think they are going to pull away for the win in this one. That defeat earlier this month really bothered Golden State and I can see them clearing the double digit spread for the second time in a week against the Lakers who are likely to be missing some key contributors again. Playing the Warriors with a full rotation is difficult enough, but doing it shorthanded can't really end well for the Lakers and I will back Golden State here.


Saturday 26th November
Today has been a busy day, but you can find the NBA Picks from the games to be played today below.

MY PICKS: 21/11 Memphis Grizzlies + 5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
22/11 New York Knicks - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
22/11 New Orleans Pelicans + 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
22/11 Chicago Bulls - 1 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
22/11 Oklahoma City Thunder - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
23/11 Memphis Grizzlies - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
23/11 Houston Rockets - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/11 San Antonio Spurs - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/11 Toronto Raptors - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
25/11 Memphis Grizzlies - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
25/11 New Orleans Pelicans + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/11 Golden State Warriors - 13 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/11 New York Knicks + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
26/11 Golden State Warriors - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

November 21-27 Update: 8-6, + 1.32 Units

November 14-20 Final: 4-5-1, - 1.32 Units
November 7-13 Final: 7-6, + 0.49 Units
November 1-6 Final: 2-5, - 3.18 Units

November Update: 13-16-1, - 4.01 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units

Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units

Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units

Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units

Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units

Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units