The Grand Slam tournament at Wimbledon may be over, but that doesn't mean we are in for a quiet week on the ATP Tour as we usually experience due to the Olympic tournament being placed on the calender this year.
The Olympic Games actually means there are four ATP tournaments this week and a further two WTA events- usually this would be the week leading up to the Davis Cup ties and would only have the one event at Newport, but alas we go on.
It is no surprise that the top Men and Women players have decided to take the time off following Wimbledon, but there are still some top names like Serena Williams, David Ferrer and Janko Tipsarevic scheduled to take part in tournaments, although that is always subject to change.
With the number of tournaments taking place, I am not going to break down the tournaments as I do usually, but instead will focus on the picks I am making and why I am taking those players. I will also be making daily picks in what is a quiet sports week, but only if I find matches I like and that may not be the case every day.
The first event I will be looking at is the one in Stuttgart where Janko Tipsarevic is the top seed. However, I like the chances of Juan Monaco, the second seed, to go all the way and win his third title of the season on the clay courts.
Monaco has actually had a bounce-back season after a pretty disappointing 2011 and he has won 16 of his 21 matches on the clay courts this season, winning titles in Vina del Mar and Houston, while also reaching the Fourth Round at the French Open.
The Argentine had a decent Wimbledon where he reached the Third Round, a vast improvement in recent efforts on the grass, but he is very comfortable on the clay courts and I expect he will be fully focused knowing that he is unlikely to be in medal contention at the Olympics with that tournament also being on the grass.
Monaco has been given a bye in the First Round here in Stuttgart and he won't be displeased with his draw with his biggest challenge likely to come from either Nikolay Davydenko or Pablo Andujar in the Semi Final. Davydenko could cause problems, but Monaco is playing well enough to think he could make hay at the 5.00 being offered on him for the tournament.
The second outright pick I will be making this week is having a small interest in Sam Querrey winning the penultimate grass court event of the 2012 season at Newport. Querrey reached the Semi Final at Queens this year on the grass and the Third Round at Wimbledon before losing in an epic match against Marin Cilic, and I think he will be very focused here as the big serving American is looking to improve his Ranking following an injury hit 12 months.
That run on the grass courts has seen him beat players like Denis Istomin and Milos Raonic, two potential opponents here in Newport this year, and he is also a former Finalist here so should be happy with the conditions.
He has also been placed in the weaker half of the draw, avoiding John Isner, Milos Raonic, Ryan Harrison, Nicolas Mahut or Gilles Muller up until the Final at the earliest. I do have a couple of concerns that Querrey could potentially play Lleyton Hewitt in his own half, but I think he showed enough already on the grass to think he can make the 15.00 offered on him a little large.
An each-way interest on Querrey looks a decent shout as far as I am concerned.
I have already picked a second seed to win one of the tournaments taking place this week, and I am taking Marin Cilic to win his home event at Umag as the second seed in this one.
Like Juan Monaco, Cilic has a bye in the First Round and I think he has a fairly kind draw as long as he is motivated to win the event, something I expect him to be as he is playing in front of his own supporters.
Cilic shouldn't have a problem until he comes up against Alexandr Dolgopolov in the Semi Final, but there is no guarantee the latter will reach that stage after struggling over the last six weeks of the season.
The Final could see the Croatian come up against a top Spanish opponent with the likes of Fernando Verdasco, Juan Carlos Ferrero and Marcel Granollers on the other side of the draw. However, Cilic should be full of confidence by then and may just be able to go one step further than when he finished as Runner Up here last season.
You can get Cilic at 3.50 and I think that is worth chancing in this tournament.
Outright Picks: Juan Monaco @ 5.00 BetFred (1 Unit)
Sam Querrey @ 15.00 Bet Victor (0.5 Units E/W)
Marin Cilic @ 3.50 BetFred (1 Unit)
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Monday, 9 July 2012
Sunday, 8 July 2012
Wimbledon Recap 2012 (July 8th)
The third Grand Slam of the season has come and gone and we have crowned two more players as Champions this season. They are both familiar to winning here at SW19 as Roger Federer and Serena Williams became the latest winners of one of the big prizes this season following on from Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova.
Below, I have a few thoughts from the tournament over the last couple of weeks and then I will show the profit/loss from the tournament and the season as a whole.
Roger Federer is once again a Grand Slam Champion: The last time Roger Federer was lifting one of the big prizes in tennis was back at the Australian Open in 2010 and there would have been a lot of people that thought he was unlikely to win another Grand Slam tournament.
However, he has been working hard to get back to the pinnacle of the Men's game and that has seen him perform the most consistently of all the players since the US Open last year, although he still had not really come close to winning a Grand Slam with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal looking a little too strong for him.
Even at this tournament, it did seem that winning the tournament was likely to be beyond him, but his come from behind win over Julien Benneteau proved to be pivotal. Federer also saved his two best performances for the final two matches against Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray and that has also seen him reclaim the World Number 1 Ranking.
Federer is set to surpass the record that Pete Sampras had held for most weeks at World Number 1 and that should also leave him in good stead going into the Olympics and the US Open later this season.
It truly is a remarkable achievement to see Federer return to the Number 1 spot, particularly in this era where the depth in the Men's game is so strong and I do think it strengthens his claims to go down as the 'Greatest Player in History'. A lot of people would have ruled him out ever winning another Grand Slam, let alone getting back to Number 1, but it is the mark of the man that he has managed to do so.
I have always thought it would be tough for Federer to go down as the 'Greatest' if Rafa Nadal can reach, say 15 Grand Slams, particularly with the head to head record between the two players, but if Federer can add another couple of Slams to his record, it will be tough to surpass him.
I remember hearing Federer speak about getting to 20 Grand Slams before he retires and you wouldn't want to bet against him considering the desire and belief he has shown to get back to World Number 1... Do I think he will get to 20? I find that tough to believe with Federer reaching 31 years old next month and with the likes of Djokovic and Nadal around.
Is Federer now the favourite to win the Gold medal at the Olympics?: I think the fact the Olympics are going to be played on grass was always going to help Federer more than it hurt him, but I still think Rafael Nadal is the player that could cause problems and should still be the man to beat, along with Novak Djokovic, when it comes to the Gold Medal.
The best news about reaching World Number 1 for Federer is that he doesn't necessarily have to beat both Nadal and Djokovic, as he would have had to at this tournament if the Spaniard had not been beaten early, but the draw is still very important to his chances.
The grass courts are probably the only courts where Federer is less vulnerable to the big hitters, but the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych (who also beat Federer at the Olympics in Athens in 2004) would still think they have a chance of knocking him off, especially in a best of three sets match.
As I said, the draw is very important to decide who should be the favourite, but I still think the two Men immediately below him in the Rankings should be leading the markets.
How will Andy Murray be received by the public following his loss: First things first, I think Andy Murray should be given a lot of credit for reaching the Wimbledon Final and his performance should not be criticised as he really did give his all and came up a little short.
There was a moment in the second set when he missed a couple of balls that he had been dealing with previously and there were some comparisons with his loss to Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final at Wimbledon last year when he had an easy forehand to go a set and a break up on the Spaniard.
While there can't be anything disparaging to be said about Murray's performance, I think the genuine disappointment and tears at the post-match interview on the court will have adhered him to the millions that were watching on TV and I think he will have more sympathy and fans from that.
Murray apologised for Federer as he felt it may have taken away from the Swiss man's victory, but it did show a side of him that many would not have seen before and I think that can only be a good thing for a player that doesn't look the happiest on the court.
Why do so many think Murray does not deserve the support of the home fans?: I have heard from a few people that they wouldn't be backing Andy Murray after what he said about the England team back in 2006.
If you don't know, all Murray said was that he was supporting 'anyone but England' in the football World Cup, but it was a tongue-in-cheek comment that seems to have riled up a lot of English people.
I heard many say they don't like him because of those comments, but I am unashamedly a Murray fan- yes, he can look a little miserable at time, but he seems to have a dry sense of humour that I appreciate and I think he is actually a lot easier to get on with off the court than on it.
Personally, I have never seen the need to 'support' a person based on their nationality when it comes to individual sports as they are doing things for themselves first and foremost- so if someone says they don't like Murray because he looks a miserable bastard, fair enough... But to not like him for a comment made as a teenager looks a little silly as far as I am concerned, especially as I don't think anyone would want to be judged by what they said as teenagers I'm sure.
People should talk about a 'top three' not a 'top four': I have already said I like Andy Murray so I hope this is not read as being too critical of him, but I do think the use of 'big four' should be put on the back-burner by those in the media from now on and until Murray wins a Grand Slam.
The top three players look a level above Murray at the moment and I think there is actually a smaller gap between him and David Ferrer at Number 5 than there is between Murray and Rafa Nadal at Number 3.
We have to appreciate all the success Murray has had already in his career, but I just think it is doing the Djokovic, Federer and Nadal's of this World a disservice by not placing them head and shoulders above the rest in the Men's field.
IF Murray can win a Grand Slam, he would at least be in the same kind of conversation as the three players above him, especially as it could lead to further success at Slam level, but this term 'big four' has to be retired until Murray does win one.
Serena Williams is back on her throne: All the talk pre-Wimbledon was about the huge achievements that Maria Sharapova had made by winning just her fourth Grand Slam, albeit completing a career Grand Slam, but the real Queen of Women's tennis can now say she is back on her throne after winning the title here.
Serena Williams has managed to beat a life-threatening illness and won her first Grand Slam since winning Wimbledon in July 2010, but that win means she has more Wimbledon titles than Sharapova has Grand Slams- that should put it into perspective what kind of achievements Sharapova has and how much they are blown out of proportion compared to her peer in Williams.
It was important for Williams to win this title having fallen far short at the Australian and French Opens this season and also being surprised by Sam Stosur in the Final of the US Open last year.
The win will give Serena the belief that she can go on and really stamp her place in the history of the Women's game with further Grand Slam success and I think there is a vacuum in the Women's tour at the moment to suggest she can go on and dominate.
I think Serena will be the favourite to win the Olympic Gold Medal and the US Open and I wouldn't want to bet against her right now with the confidence likely to have reached new heights.
Wimbledon is the latest in successful Grand Slam events: Wimbledon is the latest tournament where the outright picks have been very successful as I once again managed to get both the Men's and Women's Champion in the staking plan.
That means I have been successful in identifying the Winner of both the Men's and Women's events at all three Grand Slams so far.
Anyone who reads the blog with any regularity will know I don't like talking about my successes any more than the failures, but this is one thing I am extremely happy with.
Wimbledon Daily Picks Final: 21-17, + 8.88 Units (72 Units Staked)
Wimbledon Outright Picks Final: + 12.50 Units (9 Units Staked)
Wimbledon 2012 Final: + 21.38 Units (81 Units Staked)
Season 2012 Update: + 73.12 Units (609 Units Staked, 12.01% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Below, I have a few thoughts from the tournament over the last couple of weeks and then I will show the profit/loss from the tournament and the season as a whole.
Roger Federer is once again a Grand Slam Champion: The last time Roger Federer was lifting one of the big prizes in tennis was back at the Australian Open in 2010 and there would have been a lot of people that thought he was unlikely to win another Grand Slam tournament.
However, he has been working hard to get back to the pinnacle of the Men's game and that has seen him perform the most consistently of all the players since the US Open last year, although he still had not really come close to winning a Grand Slam with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal looking a little too strong for him.
Even at this tournament, it did seem that winning the tournament was likely to be beyond him, but his come from behind win over Julien Benneteau proved to be pivotal. Federer also saved his two best performances for the final two matches against Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray and that has also seen him reclaim the World Number 1 Ranking.
Federer is set to surpass the record that Pete Sampras had held for most weeks at World Number 1 and that should also leave him in good stead going into the Olympics and the US Open later this season.
It truly is a remarkable achievement to see Federer return to the Number 1 spot, particularly in this era where the depth in the Men's game is so strong and I do think it strengthens his claims to go down as the 'Greatest Player in History'. A lot of people would have ruled him out ever winning another Grand Slam, let alone getting back to Number 1, but it is the mark of the man that he has managed to do so.
I have always thought it would be tough for Federer to go down as the 'Greatest' if Rafa Nadal can reach, say 15 Grand Slams, particularly with the head to head record between the two players, but if Federer can add another couple of Slams to his record, it will be tough to surpass him.
I remember hearing Federer speak about getting to 20 Grand Slams before he retires and you wouldn't want to bet against him considering the desire and belief he has shown to get back to World Number 1... Do I think he will get to 20? I find that tough to believe with Federer reaching 31 years old next month and with the likes of Djokovic and Nadal around.
Is Federer now the favourite to win the Gold medal at the Olympics?: I think the fact the Olympics are going to be played on grass was always going to help Federer more than it hurt him, but I still think Rafael Nadal is the player that could cause problems and should still be the man to beat, along with Novak Djokovic, when it comes to the Gold Medal.
The best news about reaching World Number 1 for Federer is that he doesn't necessarily have to beat both Nadal and Djokovic, as he would have had to at this tournament if the Spaniard had not been beaten early, but the draw is still very important to his chances.
The grass courts are probably the only courts where Federer is less vulnerable to the big hitters, but the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych (who also beat Federer at the Olympics in Athens in 2004) would still think they have a chance of knocking him off, especially in a best of three sets match.
As I said, the draw is very important to decide who should be the favourite, but I still think the two Men immediately below him in the Rankings should be leading the markets.
How will Andy Murray be received by the public following his loss: First things first, I think Andy Murray should be given a lot of credit for reaching the Wimbledon Final and his performance should not be criticised as he really did give his all and came up a little short.
There was a moment in the second set when he missed a couple of balls that he had been dealing with previously and there were some comparisons with his loss to Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final at Wimbledon last year when he had an easy forehand to go a set and a break up on the Spaniard.
While there can't be anything disparaging to be said about Murray's performance, I think the genuine disappointment and tears at the post-match interview on the court will have adhered him to the millions that were watching on TV and I think he will have more sympathy and fans from that.
Murray apologised for Federer as he felt it may have taken away from the Swiss man's victory, but it did show a side of him that many would not have seen before and I think that can only be a good thing for a player that doesn't look the happiest on the court.
Why do so many think Murray does not deserve the support of the home fans?: I have heard from a few people that they wouldn't be backing Andy Murray after what he said about the England team back in 2006.
If you don't know, all Murray said was that he was supporting 'anyone but England' in the football World Cup, but it was a tongue-in-cheek comment that seems to have riled up a lot of English people.
I heard many say they don't like him because of those comments, but I am unashamedly a Murray fan- yes, he can look a little miserable at time, but he seems to have a dry sense of humour that I appreciate and I think he is actually a lot easier to get on with off the court than on it.
Personally, I have never seen the need to 'support' a person based on their nationality when it comes to individual sports as they are doing things for themselves first and foremost- so if someone says they don't like Murray because he looks a miserable bastard, fair enough... But to not like him for a comment made as a teenager looks a little silly as far as I am concerned, especially as I don't think anyone would want to be judged by what they said as teenagers I'm sure.
People should talk about a 'top three' not a 'top four': I have already said I like Andy Murray so I hope this is not read as being too critical of him, but I do think the use of 'big four' should be put on the back-burner by those in the media from now on and until Murray wins a Grand Slam.
The top three players look a level above Murray at the moment and I think there is actually a smaller gap between him and David Ferrer at Number 5 than there is between Murray and Rafa Nadal at Number 3.
We have to appreciate all the success Murray has had already in his career, but I just think it is doing the Djokovic, Federer and Nadal's of this World a disservice by not placing them head and shoulders above the rest in the Men's field.
IF Murray can win a Grand Slam, he would at least be in the same kind of conversation as the three players above him, especially as it could lead to further success at Slam level, but this term 'big four' has to be retired until Murray does win one.
Serena Williams is back on her throne: All the talk pre-Wimbledon was about the huge achievements that Maria Sharapova had made by winning just her fourth Grand Slam, albeit completing a career Grand Slam, but the real Queen of Women's tennis can now say she is back on her throne after winning the title here.
Serena Williams has managed to beat a life-threatening illness and won her first Grand Slam since winning Wimbledon in July 2010, but that win means she has more Wimbledon titles than Sharapova has Grand Slams- that should put it into perspective what kind of achievements Sharapova has and how much they are blown out of proportion compared to her peer in Williams.
It was important for Williams to win this title having fallen far short at the Australian and French Opens this season and also being surprised by Sam Stosur in the Final of the US Open last year.
The win will give Serena the belief that she can go on and really stamp her place in the history of the Women's game with further Grand Slam success and I think there is a vacuum in the Women's tour at the moment to suggest she can go on and dominate.
I think Serena will be the favourite to win the Olympic Gold Medal and the US Open and I wouldn't want to bet against her right now with the confidence likely to have reached new heights.
Wimbledon is the latest in successful Grand Slam events: Wimbledon is the latest tournament where the outright picks have been very successful as I once again managed to get both the Men's and Women's Champion in the staking plan.
That means I have been successful in identifying the Winner of both the Men's and Women's events at all three Grand Slams so far.
Anyone who reads the blog with any regularity will know I don't like talking about my successes any more than the failures, but this is one thing I am extremely happy with.
Wimbledon Daily Picks Final: 21-17, + 8.88 Units (72 Units Staked)
Wimbledon Outright Picks Final: + 12.50 Units (9 Units Staked)
Wimbledon 2012 Final: + 21.38 Units (81 Units Staked)
Season 2012 Update: + 73.12 Units (609 Units Staked, 12.01% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Wimbledon Day 13 Picks - Men's Final (July 8th 2012)
I am going to have a full recap of the Wimbledon event after this one is completed tomorrow, so I will use this post to solely make my pick for the Men's Final.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Andy Murray: It looks like it is going to be a rainy day tomorrow so I would be very surprised if the organisers of the tournament do not decide to shut the roof and that should favour Roger Federer of the two players in action.
If you want to get the British 'feel good factor', then it would probably be best to read the BBC or one of the daily newspapers that will be talking about that side of the match as I just want to concentrate on the match.
Andy Murray is trying to play down the expectations on his shoulders by describing Roger Federer as the favourite, but he won't be able to completely forget that the whole nation is watching and waiting in anticipation. Murray got tight to a certain extent in the last couple of sets against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and he was looking a little tired mentally at the end of that match.
Federer is also playing under a lot of expectation, but he has won 16 Grand Slam titles so he knows how to deal with it, at least that is what we expect. However, he has not won a title since the Australian Open in 2010 and so there is a chance he may get a little nervous if the finish line is in sight.
The big problem for Murray may just be the conditions tomorrow and the indoor court will favour Federer heavily in my opinion. It should make it easier for the Swiss man to dominate points behind his serve and forehand and we saw him make full use of that against Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final.
The backhand side is Murray's strength, but I think he will need to be more attacking on that side if he is to win this match, while he has to keep serving as big as he has been at critical times.
Unfortunately for Murray, this is by far the toughest opponent he would have seen over the last couple of weeks and I think there has been enough signs that he might not have enough to overcome an opponent of the quality of Federer.
Federer has had bigger scares in the tournament, but I think he has got to the peak of his performances at just the right time and I expect he will win this one in three or four sets and cover this handicap.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 1.90 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 20-17, + 7.08 Units (70 Units Staked)
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Andy Murray: It looks like it is going to be a rainy day tomorrow so I would be very surprised if the organisers of the tournament do not decide to shut the roof and that should favour Roger Federer of the two players in action.
If you want to get the British 'feel good factor', then it would probably be best to read the BBC or one of the daily newspapers that will be talking about that side of the match as I just want to concentrate on the match.
Andy Murray is trying to play down the expectations on his shoulders by describing Roger Federer as the favourite, but he won't be able to completely forget that the whole nation is watching and waiting in anticipation. Murray got tight to a certain extent in the last couple of sets against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and he was looking a little tired mentally at the end of that match.
Federer is also playing under a lot of expectation, but he has won 16 Grand Slam titles so he knows how to deal with it, at least that is what we expect. However, he has not won a title since the Australian Open in 2010 and so there is a chance he may get a little nervous if the finish line is in sight.
The big problem for Murray may just be the conditions tomorrow and the indoor court will favour Federer heavily in my opinion. It should make it easier for the Swiss man to dominate points behind his serve and forehand and we saw him make full use of that against Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final.
The backhand side is Murray's strength, but I think he will need to be more attacking on that side if he is to win this match, while he has to keep serving as big as he has been at critical times.
Unfortunately for Murray, this is by far the toughest opponent he would have seen over the last couple of weeks and I think there has been enough signs that he might not have enough to overcome an opponent of the quality of Federer.
Federer has had bigger scares in the tournament, but I think he has got to the peak of his performances at just the right time and I expect he will win this one in three or four sets and cover this handicap.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 1.90 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 20-17, + 7.08 Units (70 Units Staked)
Saturday, 7 July 2012
Wimbledon Day 12 Picks- Women's Final (July 7th 2012)
It is funny how quickly these Grand Slam events seem to come and go and we are in the final stretch as we reach the Women's Final.
The big news ahead of this Final is the illness that Agnieszka Radwanska is suffering with, one that forced her to pull out of her pre-Final press conference as she was finding it difficult breathing.
According to her Coach, this illness has been lingering since before the Quarter Final with Maria Kirilenko, although there were no real signs of it against Angelique Kerber in the Semi Final (how much of that is down to the poor performance from the German is up to you decide).
There were some rumours that Radwanska would have to pull out of this Final before it took place, but those seem to be unfounded and the Pole should take her place on Saturday.
The biggest challenge for Radwanska may not be the illness anyway, but it could be facing Serena Williams who has looked very strong in her last couple of matches as she has upped her performances in time to have a chance to win her first Grand Slam title since winning in SW19 back in 2010.
It is funny to think that Williams will be going for her fifth Wimbledon title, that is more titles in one Grand Slam than Maria Sharapova has in her entire career, and I can't help feel that Serena has been under-appreciated. She is not as warm as her sister Venus, especially on court, but I just think that there are plenty of people that will talk about Serena in a much more positive light once she finally hangs up the racquet for good.
I also think it would be a remarkable achievement that a little under two years ago was when Serena was diagnosed with a blood clot on the lungs that may have been life-threatening and the mere fact she is healthy is as big as achievement as actually going ahead and winning a Grand Slam tournament.
Williams has to be careful though as she lost as a big favourite against Sam Stosur last year at the US Open and she has to put in one more major effort to secure the title.
Anyone who followed the outright picks from the start of the tournament will be sitting on Serena Williams at 4.00 already and may just be happy to let that ride. At the moment, Williams is the big favourite to win this match so you also have the chance to lay off and ensure you finish with a profit from this match.
My Women's Final Pick:
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: We have heard all the rumours about how Agnieszka Radwanska is feeling right now, but I would have quite liked Serena Williams on this handicap anyway as I think she has the shots and the serve to cause all sorts of pressure for the Polish player throughout the contest.
We have seen previously that players that can out-hit Radwanska will cause her problems and it is no surprise that Victoria Azarenka has dominated her this season. While Azarenka has better movement than Serena, I think Williams has shown off her athletic ability in the last two matches and so I think she can cause Radwanska plenty of problems despite the awkward angles she will be given at times.
The serve is the critical difference and if Williams is serving anything like how she has been in her last two matches, I think she is going to get enough cheap points to up the ante on Radwanska. Once that scoreboard pressure builds, it may be hard for Radwanska to keep up, especially with the second serve she possesses.
There is also every chance that this Final is played indoors with the forecast not looking great for the weekend and that will give Serena another edge as it should make her shots feel that much heavier and quicker for Radwanska to deal with.
Serena Williams is 2-0 up in the head to head, but this will be the first time they have played since a 2008 Quarter Final here, and Radwanska is vastly improved since then. However, she is still the same counter attacking player in a lot of ways and I don't see the Pole dominating a lot of rallies in this match and dictating the points.
Both girls will be nervous for their own reasons (Serena said she has felt a little anxious at times when it comes to winning another Grand Slam, and this is the first Slam Final for Radwanska), but Serena has the better tools for this match in my opinion and she should win through 6-3, 6-3.
With Williams likely to have the match on her racquet, this will be the pick for the Final for me.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 19-17, + 5.08 Units (68 Units Staked)
The big news ahead of this Final is the illness that Agnieszka Radwanska is suffering with, one that forced her to pull out of her pre-Final press conference as she was finding it difficult breathing.
According to her Coach, this illness has been lingering since before the Quarter Final with Maria Kirilenko, although there were no real signs of it against Angelique Kerber in the Semi Final (how much of that is down to the poor performance from the German is up to you decide).
There were some rumours that Radwanska would have to pull out of this Final before it took place, but those seem to be unfounded and the Pole should take her place on Saturday.
The biggest challenge for Radwanska may not be the illness anyway, but it could be facing Serena Williams who has looked very strong in her last couple of matches as she has upped her performances in time to have a chance to win her first Grand Slam title since winning in SW19 back in 2010.
It is funny to think that Williams will be going for her fifth Wimbledon title, that is more titles in one Grand Slam than Maria Sharapova has in her entire career, and I can't help feel that Serena has been under-appreciated. She is not as warm as her sister Venus, especially on court, but I just think that there are plenty of people that will talk about Serena in a much more positive light once she finally hangs up the racquet for good.
I also think it would be a remarkable achievement that a little under two years ago was when Serena was diagnosed with a blood clot on the lungs that may have been life-threatening and the mere fact she is healthy is as big as achievement as actually going ahead and winning a Grand Slam tournament.
Williams has to be careful though as she lost as a big favourite against Sam Stosur last year at the US Open and she has to put in one more major effort to secure the title.
Anyone who followed the outright picks from the start of the tournament will be sitting on Serena Williams at 4.00 already and may just be happy to let that ride. At the moment, Williams is the big favourite to win this match so you also have the chance to lay off and ensure you finish with a profit from this match.
My Women's Final Pick:
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: We have heard all the rumours about how Agnieszka Radwanska is feeling right now, but I would have quite liked Serena Williams on this handicap anyway as I think she has the shots and the serve to cause all sorts of pressure for the Polish player throughout the contest.
We have seen previously that players that can out-hit Radwanska will cause her problems and it is no surprise that Victoria Azarenka has dominated her this season. While Azarenka has better movement than Serena, I think Williams has shown off her athletic ability in the last two matches and so I think she can cause Radwanska plenty of problems despite the awkward angles she will be given at times.
The serve is the critical difference and if Williams is serving anything like how she has been in her last two matches, I think she is going to get enough cheap points to up the ante on Radwanska. Once that scoreboard pressure builds, it may be hard for Radwanska to keep up, especially with the second serve she possesses.
There is also every chance that this Final is played indoors with the forecast not looking great for the weekend and that will give Serena another edge as it should make her shots feel that much heavier and quicker for Radwanska to deal with.
Serena Williams is 2-0 up in the head to head, but this will be the first time they have played since a 2008 Quarter Final here, and Radwanska is vastly improved since then. However, she is still the same counter attacking player in a lot of ways and I don't see the Pole dominating a lot of rallies in this match and dictating the points.
Both girls will be nervous for their own reasons (Serena said she has felt a little anxious at times when it comes to winning another Grand Slam, and this is the first Slam Final for Radwanska), but Serena has the better tools for this match in my opinion and she should win through 6-3, 6-3.
With Williams likely to have the match on her racquet, this will be the pick for the Final for me.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 19-17, + 5.08 Units (68 Units Staked)
Friday, 6 July 2012
Wimbledon Day 11 Picks (July 6th 2012)
It is time for the Men's Semi Finals and I think we are going to have two top quality matches to look forward to. The Women's matches were a little anti-climatic in all honesty so I will be hoping that these two Semi Finals are a little more intriguing.
Roger Federer + 1.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: I have been thinking and thinking about this match between these two rivals, but I just have a feeling that it is going to be settled in five sets no matter which way it ends up going.
Federer has had a couple of different scares in this tournament, notably the five setter against Julien Benneteau and then the injury time out against Xavier Malisse, but he has been talking up his chances and I think he feels confident on this surface to cause a surprise against the World Number 1.
In saying that, a win for Federer would see him reclaim the World Number 1 position from Djokovic and he will also have a chance to equal Pete Sampras' record of seven titles here at Wimbledon.
The backhand slice is likely to cause Djokovic problems on the surface, and the Serb has actually been talking up that shot so will be prepared for it. Federer should have the edge in the serve department, but Djokovic is probably the best returner in the game at the moment so that edge can be nullified.
It is the reason that these two have played so many tight matches against one another in the past at the Grand Slam events and, despite the fact that the Djokovic took the French Open Semi Final in straight sets, I think this will be yet another tough battle between them.
There is also the slight tension between the players, even if Federer says that is all in the past, and that makes this must-watch TV. I just think the Swiss man is completely up for this match and will at least make this close.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: This might look like one of the dumbest picks of the year as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has struggled with a back complaint in his last two victories, but there is also a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Andy Murray to reach a Wimbledon Final and that can be a tough situation to produce your best tennis.
I read Boris Becker's column that said he believes Murray is playing well enough to win Wimbledon, but I think he has been a touch fortunate in his own last couple of matches, especially against David Ferrer who should have found a way to go into a 2-0 lead in sets when serving for the second set.
I just have a feeling that Tsonga is going to thrive in this spot with all the pressure on his opponent and we may just see one of those performances from the Frenchman that he is capable of producing.
Tsonga will have to mix up his game a little if he is to win the match overall as he cannot allow Murray to start getting a read on his serve. I would probably advice him to use more serve-volley tactics than he has in the tournament so far and not allow Murray to just chip the ball back and start the rally.
The Frenchman also needs to keep points short as possible and that means playing aggressive tennis, but with the balance of not just going for winners from all angles. He will also be able to get some pressure on Murray on the returning game as that has been an area where the British player has struggled a little bit during the last week- while he has been saving break points behind some big serves, he is giving up a lot of opportunities and that can lead to problems.
Murray does have a 5-1 head to head record on the main ATP Tour, although Tsonga did win a Challenger match against him back in 2004. Murray has won 4 matches in a row since losing in the Australian Open First Round back in 2008, and that includes 2 victories on grass.
However, the match last year at Queens was very, very close and we could see something similar develop here which would allow Tsonga to cover even in a losing effort (much like David Ferrer did in the last Round against Andy Murray).
MY PICKS: Roger Federer + 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 3.5 games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Wimbledon Update: 18-16, + 4.98 Units (66 Units Staked)
Roger Federer + 1.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: I have been thinking and thinking about this match between these two rivals, but I just have a feeling that it is going to be settled in five sets no matter which way it ends up going.
Federer has had a couple of different scares in this tournament, notably the five setter against Julien Benneteau and then the injury time out against Xavier Malisse, but he has been talking up his chances and I think he feels confident on this surface to cause a surprise against the World Number 1.
In saying that, a win for Federer would see him reclaim the World Number 1 position from Djokovic and he will also have a chance to equal Pete Sampras' record of seven titles here at Wimbledon.
The backhand slice is likely to cause Djokovic problems on the surface, and the Serb has actually been talking up that shot so will be prepared for it. Federer should have the edge in the serve department, but Djokovic is probably the best returner in the game at the moment so that edge can be nullified.
It is the reason that these two have played so many tight matches against one another in the past at the Grand Slam events and, despite the fact that the Djokovic took the French Open Semi Final in straight sets, I think this will be yet another tough battle between them.
There is also the slight tension between the players, even if Federer says that is all in the past, and that makes this must-watch TV. I just think the Swiss man is completely up for this match and will at least make this close.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: This might look like one of the dumbest picks of the year as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has struggled with a back complaint in his last two victories, but there is also a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Andy Murray to reach a Wimbledon Final and that can be a tough situation to produce your best tennis.
I read Boris Becker's column that said he believes Murray is playing well enough to win Wimbledon, but I think he has been a touch fortunate in his own last couple of matches, especially against David Ferrer who should have found a way to go into a 2-0 lead in sets when serving for the second set.
I just have a feeling that Tsonga is going to thrive in this spot with all the pressure on his opponent and we may just see one of those performances from the Frenchman that he is capable of producing.
Tsonga will have to mix up his game a little if he is to win the match overall as he cannot allow Murray to start getting a read on his serve. I would probably advice him to use more serve-volley tactics than he has in the tournament so far and not allow Murray to just chip the ball back and start the rally.
The Frenchman also needs to keep points short as possible and that means playing aggressive tennis, but with the balance of not just going for winners from all angles. He will also be able to get some pressure on Murray on the returning game as that has been an area where the British player has struggled a little bit during the last week- while he has been saving break points behind some big serves, he is giving up a lot of opportunities and that can lead to problems.
Murray does have a 5-1 head to head record on the main ATP Tour, although Tsonga did win a Challenger match against him back in 2004. Murray has won 4 matches in a row since losing in the Australian Open First Round back in 2008, and that includes 2 victories on grass.
However, the match last year at Queens was very, very close and we could see something similar develop here which would allow Tsonga to cover even in a losing effort (much like David Ferrer did in the last Round against Andy Murray).
MY PICKS: Roger Federer + 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 3.5 games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Wimbledon Update: 18-16, + 4.98 Units (66 Units Staked)
Thursday, 5 July 2012
Wimbledon Day 10 Picks (July 5th 2012)
It is the Semi Finals from the Women's tournament today and I am going to make the following two picks:
Agnieszka Radwanska v Angelique Kerber: I know Agnieszka Radwanska had a long Quarter Final before coming through against Maria Kirilenko, but I am a little surprised that she is the underdog in this match against Angelique Kerber, especially considering how close the latter also came to being knocked out at the Quarter Final stage.
The one area the German definitely has the edge is in the power department, while both have solid defensive skills and good movement.
However, despite holding that edge, I still think Kerber should not be as short as she is at the moment and that is the reason I am taking Radwanska.
Both have won 2 of the previous 4 meetings between the players, while we have seen the last three matches all go into a third set showing how close these players are to one another.
I just think Radwanska may have overcome a big mental hurdle just to reach this Semi Final and she might be a little too tough for Kerber who should really have been beaten by Sabine Lisicki in the last Round.
Serena Williams - 2.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: Victoria Azarenka has barely been pushed in this tournament so far, but this looks like a challenge that may be beyond her as I don't think she can match the power that Serena Williams will be providing from one side of the court.
The American put in her best performance in the last Round as she dismissed the challenge of the defending Champion Petra Kvitova and I think Williams will be too strong behind her serve and groundstrokes and that will lead to more pressure on Azarenka to hold onto her own service games.
Williams has won the last five meetings between the players, including a comfortable 6-2, 6-3 win at the Quarter Final stage of Wimbledon back in 2009.
She has also won the last three meetings within the last 12 months, and all of those have been comfortable wins for Williams. She has the better grass court pedigree and I think Williams has put in her best performance of the tournament last time out and will likely build on that.
I expect Azarenka will do her best to try and keep up with Williams, but the scoreboard should provide too much pressure and I expect the American will go through in this one.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska @ 2.38 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Serena Williams - 2.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 16-16, + 1.90 Units (63 Units Staked)
Agnieszka Radwanska v Angelique Kerber: I know Agnieszka Radwanska had a long Quarter Final before coming through against Maria Kirilenko, but I am a little surprised that she is the underdog in this match against Angelique Kerber, especially considering how close the latter also came to being knocked out at the Quarter Final stage.
The one area the German definitely has the edge is in the power department, while both have solid defensive skills and good movement.
However, despite holding that edge, I still think Kerber should not be as short as she is at the moment and that is the reason I am taking Radwanska.
Both have won 2 of the previous 4 meetings between the players, while we have seen the last three matches all go into a third set showing how close these players are to one another.
I just think Radwanska may have overcome a big mental hurdle just to reach this Semi Final and she might be a little too tough for Kerber who should really have been beaten by Sabine Lisicki in the last Round.
Serena Williams - 2.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: Victoria Azarenka has barely been pushed in this tournament so far, but this looks like a challenge that may be beyond her as I don't think she can match the power that Serena Williams will be providing from one side of the court.
The American put in her best performance in the last Round as she dismissed the challenge of the defending Champion Petra Kvitova and I think Williams will be too strong behind her serve and groundstrokes and that will lead to more pressure on Azarenka to hold onto her own service games.
Williams has won the last five meetings between the players, including a comfortable 6-2, 6-3 win at the Quarter Final stage of Wimbledon back in 2009.
She has also won the last three meetings within the last 12 months, and all of those have been comfortable wins for Williams. She has the better grass court pedigree and I think Williams has put in her best performance of the tournament last time out and will likely build on that.
I expect Azarenka will do her best to try and keep up with Williams, but the scoreboard should provide too much pressure and I expect the American will go through in this one.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska @ 2.38 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Serena Williams - 2.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 16-16, + 1.90 Units (63 Units Staked)
Wednesday, 4 July 2012
Wimbledon Day 9 Picks (July 4th 2012)
Day 9 is Men's Quarter Finals day at Wimbledon, but the weather forecast remains unsettled to say the least.
At the beginning of the week, the tournament was heavily criticised for putting Andy Murray on Court 1 rather than Centre Court despite the poor forecast, but I think we have to take a step up here. At the end of the day, only three matches are scheduled on Centre Court, two of those being Men's matches and I think the second Monday of the tournament is always going to lead to one or two of the really big names in the Men's game to be left off the court.
The bottom line is that Wimbledon can't be seen to favour one player over the six time Wimbledon Champion, Roger Federer, the two time Champion in Rafael Nadal and the defending Champion Novak Djokovic and even Nadal's exit doesn't change that fact.
Picks:
Roger Federer - 7.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: I am taking a risk and assuming Roger Federer's back injury would have settled down over the last couple of days since suffering a spasm in his win over Xavier Malisse and I think this is a good match up for him to reach the Semi Final.
Mikhail Youzhny is a very solid competitor, but I don't think he has the consistency to keep up with Federer if the latter is on his game and he was beaten comfortably when the two players met at Halle last month on the grass courts.
Federer has won all his meetings against Youzhny and has won his last three against him on grass pretty comfortably and I will look for him to try and make quick work of this one to give himself as much rest as possible before a likely Semi Final against Novak Djokovic on Friday.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Philipp Kohlschreiber was the biggest beneficiary of Rafael Nadal's surprising exit, but he still had to take advantage of that and he has not dropped a set in the last three Rounds following a five set win over Tommy Haas in the First Round. However, this is a really tough match up for him as he faces Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Tsonga suffered from a few back issues himself yesterday, but he began to feel a lot better as that match with Mardy Fish developed and I think his 5-1 head to head record will give him the added confidence that he can reach the Semi Final here at Wimbledon for the second season in succession.
Tsonga won't have it easy as Kohlschreiber's game translates onto the grass courts very effectively, but the German is likely to be a little nervous having reached this stage in a Grand Slam event for the first time in his career. He also has to reverse recent history where has lost the last 8 sets competed against Tsonga.
The grass is the Frenchman's favourite surface too and I think he will be a little too good for Kohlschreiber in this one.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 15-15, + 1.70 Units (59 Units Staked)
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