I am not making any outright picks from the tournaments at Queens, Halle, Birmingham and Copenhagen simply because it can be a bit of a minefield determining which players will pull out of events the week after a Grand Slam. There is also an additional problem of players trying not to peak too early with another Grand Slam due to start in 2 weeks time.
Therefore, I will mainly stick to making a few plays a day (where possible) as I try to keep the bank going before Wimbledon starts.
Queens, Halle and Birmingham are all grass court tournaments, Copenhagen will be played on an indoor hard court.
Queens
TREBLE: Feliciano Lopez vs Dmitry Tursunov, James Ward vs Daniel Cox, and Sam Querrey vs Kei Nishikori: All 3 of these Men picked should come through their individual tests tomorrow, although I am limiting this to a 1 unit pick as all of the players can have their off days.
Feliciano Lopez meets a good player on the grass courts, but one who has struggled with injury in recent seasons and also on the main tour this season.
James Ward has far more experience of playing in these types of matches than Daniel Cox and I expect him to show that.
Sam Querrey is the defending Champion here and has all the tools to make himself a tough grass court player. He has also picked up a little bit of form of late and has had plenty of time to get used to playing on the surface since being knocked out of the French Open.
Nishikori is a tough player, but has lost his way a little this season and is still trying to learn what Brad Gilbert is telling him.
Halle
Igor Andreev win 2-0 in sets vs Potito Starace: Neither one of these players has a strong grass court pedigree, but Starace's is far worse. In fact the Italian has lost 6 of his last 7 matches on the surface over the last few seasons, his only win coming courtesy of a retirement.
Igor Andreev can at least say he has reached the 4th Round at Wimbledon before, and he also holds a 6-1 head to head record over Starace.
Andreev has won the last 4 meetings between the two players, taking 9 sets and losing 1, while 5 of the wins have come on clay, Starace's favourite surface.
The first set could be tight, but I think Andreev has all the tools to beat Starace here. If he takes the first set, the Italian may just begin looking forward to ending this small part of the calender on the ATP Tour.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez, James Ward and Sam Querrey Treble @ 3.02 BetFred (1 Unit)
Igor Andreev win 2-0 in sets @ 2.2 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Overall Season Profit/Loss: + 37.02 Units
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Sunday, 5 June 2011
French Open Profit/Loss Recap
So Rafael Nadal is once again the King of Clay after an impressive win over Roger Federer. This has really got me looking forward to Wimbledon as Nadal-Federer look to renew their rivalry with dangerous players like Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic looking to spoil the party.
Rafa's quick shutdown of Federer in the 4th set meant the - 4.5 games pick I had made for the Final came in as well, and that completes an extremely productive 2 weeks.
FRENCH OPEN DAILY PICKS: The daily picks proved successful (barring a couple of losing days) and helped us end the tournament with + 27.69 Units of profit.
FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHT PICKS: This too proved to be valuable ground as I had identified Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer at the start of the tournament.
The 0.5 unit e/w pick of Tomas Berdych didn't last more than the first 2 days of the tournament, but I was fortunate to pick up + 5 Units from the Rafael Nadal win.
I also picked up an additional + 5.33 Units on Federer thanks to the Swiss former World Number 1 finishing as the runner up. However, 1 of those units will be taken off thanks to Federer not quite winning the tournament.
That means there is an additional + 9.33 Units from the outright picks.
OVERALL FRENCH OPEN: + 37.02 Units
Rafa's quick shutdown of Federer in the 4th set meant the - 4.5 games pick I had made for the Final came in as well, and that completes an extremely productive 2 weeks.
FRENCH OPEN DAILY PICKS: The daily picks proved successful (barring a couple of losing days) and helped us end the tournament with + 27.69 Units of profit.
FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHT PICKS: This too proved to be valuable ground as I had identified Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer at the start of the tournament.
The 0.5 unit e/w pick of Tomas Berdych didn't last more than the first 2 days of the tournament, but I was fortunate to pick up + 5 Units from the Rafael Nadal win.
I also picked up an additional + 5.33 Units on Federer thanks to the Swiss former World Number 1 finishing as the runner up. However, 1 of those units will be taken off thanks to Federer not quite winning the tournament.
That means there is an additional + 9.33 Units from the outright picks.
OVERALL FRENCH OPEN: + 37.02 Units
French Open- Men's Final Preview and Pick
First things first, congratulations to Na Li for winning the Women's title here yesterday. It was probably the best performance from someone on the WTA Tour that I have seen all season for about a set and a half.
There was a wobble towards the end of set 2, but Li deserved the win.
Anyone who followed my outright picks before the tournament are already in a fantastic position as I had picked Rafael Nadal (5 Units) and Roger Federer (2 Units) so we are going to come out of the match with a winning position.
However, I still feel there is a way to get on the match tomorrow so on to the Men's Final pick:
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games vs Roger Federer: First thing to say is Rafael Nadal is being severely underestimated by the bookies that still have him priced as a 1.44 shot to win this match. To put it into comparison, Nadal was a 1.14 shot to beat Federer in a best of 3 sets match in Madrid, and it is definitely harder to win 3 out of 5 sets here in Paris.
I also think it has been forgotten that Nadal has beaten Federer 4 times here in Paris, including in 3 Finals, and the last time they played here saw the former World Number 1 win just 4 games... YES 4 GAMES!
Also point to the fact that Nadal has won 6 of the last 7 matches they have played against one another on clay (the only defeat needs an asterix as Nadal was coming off a 4 hour match from the day before they met) and I really, genuinely, believe Nadal is being totally underestimated.
Everything Roger Federer did against Novak Djokovic has to be scrapped in order to beat Nadal. The Spaniard has better movement than Djokovic, and also makes sure Federer's backhand is a lot harder to hit by putting balls with a lot of top spin when attacking that wing.
Federer will need to serve exceptionally well and try to dictate points as much as possible. He will also need to attack the Nadal 2nd serve, but I have seen Nadal dominate this man too many times on clay to ignore this handicap.
There is a real chance Federer could take a set, but even that is a mighty struggle here in Paris where I believe Nadal has only ever dropped 13 sets (not 100% on that stat, but I believe that is correct from memory).
There is a real chance this match is completed in straight sets, but the handicap should be covered even if Federer does take a set off the King of Clay.
MY PICK: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (4 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 24.09 Units (- 2 Units from Women's Final)
I also want to thank all of you that have been regularly checking this blog over the last 2 weeks of the tournament. As you know it is a fairly new blog and it is getting more and more readership each day.
I will continue picking tennis matches during the rest of the season, with the bigger tournaments seeing more activity. I have been fairly successful over the last few years in making picks, so will hopefully continue on from that in the fashion of this tournament.
The other sports picks will also continue, as will my own personal views on issues.
Thank you for your continued support of this blog, Dav
There was a wobble towards the end of set 2, but Li deserved the win.
Anyone who followed my outright picks before the tournament are already in a fantastic position as I had picked Rafael Nadal (5 Units) and Roger Federer (2 Units) so we are going to come out of the match with a winning position.
However, I still feel there is a way to get on the match tomorrow so on to the Men's Final pick:
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games vs Roger Federer: First thing to say is Rafael Nadal is being severely underestimated by the bookies that still have him priced as a 1.44 shot to win this match. To put it into comparison, Nadal was a 1.14 shot to beat Federer in a best of 3 sets match in Madrid, and it is definitely harder to win 3 out of 5 sets here in Paris.
I also think it has been forgotten that Nadal has beaten Federer 4 times here in Paris, including in 3 Finals, and the last time they played here saw the former World Number 1 win just 4 games... YES 4 GAMES!
Also point to the fact that Nadal has won 6 of the last 7 matches they have played against one another on clay (the only defeat needs an asterix as Nadal was coming off a 4 hour match from the day before they met) and I really, genuinely, believe Nadal is being totally underestimated.
Everything Roger Federer did against Novak Djokovic has to be scrapped in order to beat Nadal. The Spaniard has better movement than Djokovic, and also makes sure Federer's backhand is a lot harder to hit by putting balls with a lot of top spin when attacking that wing.
Federer will need to serve exceptionally well and try to dictate points as much as possible. He will also need to attack the Nadal 2nd serve, but I have seen Nadal dominate this man too many times on clay to ignore this handicap.
There is a real chance Federer could take a set, but even that is a mighty struggle here in Paris where I believe Nadal has only ever dropped 13 sets (not 100% on that stat, but I believe that is correct from memory).
There is a real chance this match is completed in straight sets, but the handicap should be covered even if Federer does take a set off the King of Clay.
MY PICK: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (4 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 24.09 Units (- 2 Units from Women's Final)
I also want to thank all of you that have been regularly checking this blog over the last 2 weeks of the tournament. As you know it is a fairly new blog and it is getting more and more readership each day.
I will continue picking tennis matches during the rest of the season, with the bigger tournaments seeing more activity. I have been fairly successful over the last few years in making picks, so will hopefully continue on from that in the fashion of this tournament.
The other sports picks will also continue, as will my own personal views on issues.
Thank you for your continued support of this blog, Dav
Saturday, 4 June 2011
French Open Women's Final Pick
Yesterday was another wonderful day for the picks and has ensured we will be walking away with a nice chunk of profit from the tournament.
Both picks from the Men's Semi Finals came in as Rafael Nadal came through 3-0 in sets against Andy Murray and Roger Federer ended the winning streak of Novak Djokovic with a 3-1 victory.
While hitting both picks improved the daily units, it was even nicer to see Nadal and Federer reach the Final as I had tipped them as winners of the tournament before it began 2 weeks ago.
Tomas Berdych may have fallen by the wayside, but Nadal and Federer have done me proud.
Now on to the Women's Final Pick:
Francesca Schiavone to win vs Na Li: The bookmakers have essentially listed this as a pick 'em contest between two of the toughest competitors on tour.
Francesca Schiavone has the chance to retain her title from last season, while Na Li will look to go one further than when Runner Up in Australia earlier this year.
The key to the contest will be who can enforce their game plan on the other more effectively. Schiavone looks to play a bit of finesse tennis to pull opponents around the court and break their rhythm, trying her best to not let her opponents see the same ball twice.
Na Li will look to use her penetrating groundstrokes to make it difficult for Schiavone.
Interestingly, the wind should have died down from what it has been like over the last few days and that should make it a little more interesting as a spectacle.
Both players have 2 wins and 2 losses against one another, although Schiavone won their only previous meeting on clay in straight sets here last year.
Na Li has had the more spectacular wins this year to reach this stage, but I just have this feeling the Italian is going to have a little too much guile for the Chinese player and retain her title.
MY PICKS: Francesca Schiavone win @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 26.09 Units (+ 4.5 Units Day 13 Men's Semi Finals)
Both picks from the Men's Semi Finals came in as Rafael Nadal came through 3-0 in sets against Andy Murray and Roger Federer ended the winning streak of Novak Djokovic with a 3-1 victory.
While hitting both picks improved the daily units, it was even nicer to see Nadal and Federer reach the Final as I had tipped them as winners of the tournament before it began 2 weeks ago.
Tomas Berdych may have fallen by the wayside, but Nadal and Federer have done me proud.
Now on to the Women's Final Pick:
Francesca Schiavone to win vs Na Li: The bookmakers have essentially listed this as a pick 'em contest between two of the toughest competitors on tour.
Francesca Schiavone has the chance to retain her title from last season, while Na Li will look to go one further than when Runner Up in Australia earlier this year.
The key to the contest will be who can enforce their game plan on the other more effectively. Schiavone looks to play a bit of finesse tennis to pull opponents around the court and break their rhythm, trying her best to not let her opponents see the same ball twice.
Na Li will look to use her penetrating groundstrokes to make it difficult for Schiavone.
Interestingly, the wind should have died down from what it has been like over the last few days and that should make it a little more interesting as a spectacle.
Both players have 2 wins and 2 losses against one another, although Schiavone won their only previous meeting on clay in straight sets here last year.
Na Li has had the more spectacular wins this year to reach this stage, but I just have this feeling the Italian is going to have a little too much guile for the Chinese player and retain her title.
MY PICKS: Francesca Schiavone win @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 26.09 Units (+ 4.5 Units Day 13 Men's Semi Finals)
Friday, 3 June 2011
French Open Day 13 Picks- Men's Semi Finals
The Women's draw saw Chinese player Na Li come through to play the defending Champion Francesca Schiavone after both won in straight sets on Thursday.
This could be a fascinating Final and I think the winner will come from who can enforce their game on the other in what I expect to be a tight battle.
But before we get there we have the Men's Semi Finals to look forward to and I would clear any schedules to make sure the two are watched on Friday- I think we are in for a special day of tennis.
Now on to the Semi Final picks:
Rafael Nadal win 3-0 in sets vs Andy Murray: I have had to think about this for a little bit of time before settling on this pick as Rafael Nadal had not been playing his best tennis before meeting Robin Soderling in the last Round, while Andy Murray performed brilliantly when the pair met in Monte Carlo a few weeks ago.
However, after looking at the match up, I just feel Nadal has the edge in terms of movement, thanks even more so to Murray's ankle injury, and I also feel Murray has not performed to as high a level as you would believe if you read the British press.
His heart and determination to recover deficits in sets and matches has to be commended, but Nadal is not the type of player that will allow people to get off the floor once the Spaniard has them there.
I also feel Murray is too prone to throwing in 1/2 bad service games per set in recent matches and that is another issue that will bite him here. Murray has talked about patiently building a point on clay courts, but that too will receive the ultimate test on Friday.
Any remnants of an ankle injury will be brutally exposed by Nadal at every opportunity and he seems to have too much.
Nadal also leads the head to head 10-5 (3-0 on clay courts) and won their last meeting in a Grand Slam in straight sets at Wimbledon last year.
Roger Federer + 5.5 games vs Novak Djokovic: It is hard for me to really believe Roger Federer is getting just shy of a set full of games against Novak Djokovic in this match, especially considering how well the Swiss former World Number 1 is playing.
We all know about the records Djokovic can reach if he wins this match, including becoming the new World Number 1, but I just feel the bookmakers have overlooked Federer here.
He will need to serve well if Federer wants to win this game. The forehand has also got to work while he should look to use the slice and short angles with his backhand to try and nullify Djokovic's shots down the line off his own backhand.
Federer has also looked supreme in the tournament, not yet dropping a set, and I genuinely feel he has the chance to win this match outright.
Djokovic has been in wonderful form all season and has had 4 days off thanks to Fabio Fognini retiring before a ball had been hit in anger in the Quarter Finals. The Serb was impressive against Richard Gasquet in his last match, but games with Federer have been historically tough.
Federer leads the head to head 13-9 (2-1 on clay courts), although Djokovic has won all 3 meetings this season.
Djokovic has also beaten Federer in the last 2 Grand Slam events, both in this Round, although it was 3 tight sets in Australia and a 5 set classic at the US Open last Summer.
They have had plenty of tight matches and I dont think this one will be much different. Federer can prove he is still someone we should talk about when it comes to Grand Slam winners and he can make a real statement here.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal win 3-0 sets @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Roger Federer + 5.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (3 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 21.59 Units (+ 3.82 Units Day 12)
This could be a fascinating Final and I think the winner will come from who can enforce their game on the other in what I expect to be a tight battle.
But before we get there we have the Men's Semi Finals to look forward to and I would clear any schedules to make sure the two are watched on Friday- I think we are in for a special day of tennis.
Now on to the Semi Final picks:
Rafael Nadal win 3-0 in sets vs Andy Murray: I have had to think about this for a little bit of time before settling on this pick as Rafael Nadal had not been playing his best tennis before meeting Robin Soderling in the last Round, while Andy Murray performed brilliantly when the pair met in Monte Carlo a few weeks ago.
However, after looking at the match up, I just feel Nadal has the edge in terms of movement, thanks even more so to Murray's ankle injury, and I also feel Murray has not performed to as high a level as you would believe if you read the British press.
His heart and determination to recover deficits in sets and matches has to be commended, but Nadal is not the type of player that will allow people to get off the floor once the Spaniard has them there.
I also feel Murray is too prone to throwing in 1/2 bad service games per set in recent matches and that is another issue that will bite him here. Murray has talked about patiently building a point on clay courts, but that too will receive the ultimate test on Friday.
Any remnants of an ankle injury will be brutally exposed by Nadal at every opportunity and he seems to have too much.
Nadal also leads the head to head 10-5 (3-0 on clay courts) and won their last meeting in a Grand Slam in straight sets at Wimbledon last year.
Roger Federer + 5.5 games vs Novak Djokovic: It is hard for me to really believe Roger Federer is getting just shy of a set full of games against Novak Djokovic in this match, especially considering how well the Swiss former World Number 1 is playing.
We all know about the records Djokovic can reach if he wins this match, including becoming the new World Number 1, but I just feel the bookmakers have overlooked Federer here.
He will need to serve well if Federer wants to win this game. The forehand has also got to work while he should look to use the slice and short angles with his backhand to try and nullify Djokovic's shots down the line off his own backhand.
Federer has also looked supreme in the tournament, not yet dropping a set, and I genuinely feel he has the chance to win this match outright.
Djokovic has been in wonderful form all season and has had 4 days off thanks to Fabio Fognini retiring before a ball had been hit in anger in the Quarter Finals. The Serb was impressive against Richard Gasquet in his last match, but games with Federer have been historically tough.
Federer leads the head to head 13-9 (2-1 on clay courts), although Djokovic has won all 3 meetings this season.
Djokovic has also beaten Federer in the last 2 Grand Slam events, both in this Round, although it was 3 tight sets in Australia and a 5 set classic at the US Open last Summer.
They have had plenty of tight matches and I dont think this one will be much different. Federer can prove he is still someone we should talk about when it comes to Grand Slam winners and he can make a real statement here.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal win 3-0 sets @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Roger Federer + 5.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (3 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 21.59 Units (+ 3.82 Units Day 12)
Wednesday, 1 June 2011
French Open Day 12 Picks- Women's Semi Finals
Day 11 proved to much better and I can now forget the memories from Day 10 when I couldn't catch a cold let alone a pick.
The Men's draw could not have shaped up much better with Federer-Djokovic being joined by Murray-Nadal on what should be a fascinating Friday of tennis.
Rafael Nadal looked back to his imperious best for 2 sets against Robin Soderling, and then showed his strength of character in refusing to buckle for the Swede when the pressure was put on in the 3rd set.
It is also telling that Nadal said he felt he played much better today and we have seen this from him before at the business end of tournaments.
He will meet Andy Murray who made a little harder work of Juan Ignacio Chela than he would have wanted. The injury to the ankle is still not fully healed, while Murray has too many lapses in concentration that will cost him against Nadal.
5 breaks of his own serve in the first 2 sets today must also be a concern for the Murray camp.
The Women's tour has been crying out for a star in the absence of the Williams sisters for almost a year- now they might be getting another familiar face back in the form of Maria Sharapova who looked absolutely dominating in her win over Andrea Petkovic.
Sharapova has not played in a Grand Slam Semi Final for 3 years and her return will be welcome for the WTA Tour. The Russian also became favourite to win this tournament but will have to beat the tough Chinese star Na Li.
I have underestimated Li for much of the tournament, and fully expected both Petra Kvitova and then Victoria Azarenka to beat her, but I have been put in my place both times. Li has reached a Grand Slam Final already this season and obviously feels she can take a step further in this tournament.
Day 12 is all about the Ladies as it is their Semi Final day so on to the picks:
Na Li + 3.5 games vs Maria Sharapova: As I mentioned above, I have underestimated Na Li twice already this tournament and now would much prefer to be on her side in what looks like a winnable Semi Final if I am honest.
Li has played very well against Kvitova and Azarenka in the last 2 Rounds here and obviously feels comfortable on the clay after suggesting it is others who think she is troubled on this surface.
Maria Sharapova showed the very best of her game today against Andrea Petkovic, but it was clear the latter was a little overawed by the occasion and that is something I dont expect from Li. This is also the first Semi Final at Grand Slam level that Sharapova would have competed in for 3 years and so there is a chance she is the more nervous of the two players.
Li also has won the last 2 meetings with Sharapova, both on the Russian's favoured grass, and also pushed Sharapova to 3 sets here at Roland Garros in 2009.
It is possible it goes the distance again tomorrow and hopefully having the games on our side will make the winner of the contest a moot point.
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games vs Marion Bartoli: Marion Bartoli might be the last French hope here in Paris, but this looks like a tough match up against the defending Champion on the red dirt, Francesca Schiavone.
Bartoli has shown a lot of heart in this tournament as she progressed past her previous career best of the 4th Round to the delight of her home crowd. Bartoli has beaten some tough opponents to get this far, none more so than Julia Goerges and Svetlana Kuznetsova, but Schiavone poses a different type of threat.
It has been blustery in Paris the last couple of days, and Schiavone's touch tennis is likely to make things additionally difficult for Bartoli whose movement is perhaps her biggest issue.
This has been a special tournament for Bartoli, but I remain concerned about her previous lack of success on the surface where bad movement can be exposed (Bartoli is 13-17 on the main tour in clay court events in 2008-2010).
Schiavone also holds a 4-1 head to head record against the French Woman, with their last meeting coming at Wimbledon in 2009. This will be their first clay court match.
MY PICKS: Na Li + 3.5 games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 17.17 Units (+ 4.9 Units Day 11)
The Men's draw could not have shaped up much better with Federer-Djokovic being joined by Murray-Nadal on what should be a fascinating Friday of tennis.
Rafael Nadal looked back to his imperious best for 2 sets against Robin Soderling, and then showed his strength of character in refusing to buckle for the Swede when the pressure was put on in the 3rd set.
It is also telling that Nadal said he felt he played much better today and we have seen this from him before at the business end of tournaments.
He will meet Andy Murray who made a little harder work of Juan Ignacio Chela than he would have wanted. The injury to the ankle is still not fully healed, while Murray has too many lapses in concentration that will cost him against Nadal.
5 breaks of his own serve in the first 2 sets today must also be a concern for the Murray camp.
The Women's tour has been crying out for a star in the absence of the Williams sisters for almost a year- now they might be getting another familiar face back in the form of Maria Sharapova who looked absolutely dominating in her win over Andrea Petkovic.
Sharapova has not played in a Grand Slam Semi Final for 3 years and her return will be welcome for the WTA Tour. The Russian also became favourite to win this tournament but will have to beat the tough Chinese star Na Li.
I have underestimated Li for much of the tournament, and fully expected both Petra Kvitova and then Victoria Azarenka to beat her, but I have been put in my place both times. Li has reached a Grand Slam Final already this season and obviously feels she can take a step further in this tournament.
Day 12 is all about the Ladies as it is their Semi Final day so on to the picks:
Na Li + 3.5 games vs Maria Sharapova: As I mentioned above, I have underestimated Na Li twice already this tournament and now would much prefer to be on her side in what looks like a winnable Semi Final if I am honest.
Li has played very well against Kvitova and Azarenka in the last 2 Rounds here and obviously feels comfortable on the clay after suggesting it is others who think she is troubled on this surface.
Maria Sharapova showed the very best of her game today against Andrea Petkovic, but it was clear the latter was a little overawed by the occasion and that is something I dont expect from Li. This is also the first Semi Final at Grand Slam level that Sharapova would have competed in for 3 years and so there is a chance she is the more nervous of the two players.
Li also has won the last 2 meetings with Sharapova, both on the Russian's favoured grass, and also pushed Sharapova to 3 sets here at Roland Garros in 2009.
It is possible it goes the distance again tomorrow and hopefully having the games on our side will make the winner of the contest a moot point.
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games vs Marion Bartoli: Marion Bartoli might be the last French hope here in Paris, but this looks like a tough match up against the defending Champion on the red dirt, Francesca Schiavone.
Bartoli has shown a lot of heart in this tournament as she progressed past her previous career best of the 4th Round to the delight of her home crowd. Bartoli has beaten some tough opponents to get this far, none more so than Julia Goerges and Svetlana Kuznetsova, but Schiavone poses a different type of threat.
It has been blustery in Paris the last couple of days, and Schiavone's touch tennis is likely to make things additionally difficult for Bartoli whose movement is perhaps her biggest issue.
This has been a special tournament for Bartoli, but I remain concerned about her previous lack of success on the surface where bad movement can be exposed (Bartoli is 13-17 on the main tour in clay court events in 2008-2010).
Schiavone also holds a 4-1 head to head record against the French Woman, with their last meeting coming at Wimbledon in 2009. This will be their first clay court match.
MY PICKS: Na Li + 3.5 games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 17.17 Units (+ 4.9 Units Day 11)
Tuesday, 31 May 2011
French Open Day 11 Picks
Ouch!! That is the only way I can describe Day 10 for my picks which was the worst day of the tournament so far. Both Andu Murray and Roger Federer missed covering the spread by 2 games combined, while Francesca Schiavone fought back wonderfully well to win in 3 sets.
These things will happen in a 2 week tournament, but we still remain in a very strong position overall for the tournament and must look to bounce back in the correct fashion.
The Men's draw also gave us a wonderful Semi Final for Friday as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer both reached that stage. While the initial drama will be surrounding Djokovic's unbeaten start to the season, we also have the intrigue of seeing if Federer is still a genuine threat at the business end of Slams as well as the chance for Djokovic to take over the World Number 1 Ranking in time for Wimbledon with a win.
The Women's draw sees the reigning Champion, Schiavone, take on France's last hope in their Slam in the form of Marion Bartoli. My initial reaction is again how much Schiavone can get Bartoli on the move as the French Woman is probably better off the ground.
That should be an entertaining Semi Final on Thursday as the tournament draws to a close.
Now on to Day 11 Picks:
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Robin Soderling: I am sure we have all read up on Nadal's private thoughts, thoughts that he made very public after his win over Ivan Ljubicic on Monday. Nadal admits he is not playing well but this is coming from someone who believes he has only been 'so-so' in previous trips to Paris.
It is clear that Nadal is not his usual dominating self at the moment, but he is a Champion that usually reserves his best tennis until the latter end of tournaments. Now he faces a huge test in the form of Robin Soderling.
Soderling is the only man to have beaten Nadal here in Paris, and has been playing pretty solid tennis. However, he has checked out of some sets this past 10 days and needs to keep to a high level if he wants to surprise Nadal.
Nadal will also have added motivation from the fact that he is not the biggest fan of Soderling and they have had issues in the past. You sense this will push the Spaniard on to play his best match of the tournament and perhaps see him produce something similar to either his win here at Roland Garros last year or at Wimbledon.
Soderling may take a set, but I see Nadal progressing here and covering the spread.
Andy Murray - 6.5 games vs Juan Ignacio Chela: The real issue about this match up is how well Andy Murray will recover to play again so soon after his win over Victor Troicki. His game matches up so well against Chela's, as proven in victories over the Argentinian in 2009 and 2010 here, both with plenty to spare.
Murray has admitted there is a partial tear in his right ankle, but he also feels he can get through the tournament (I wouldnt expect him to play at Queens next week).
Chela is the oldest man left in the draw and has done remarkably well to get through to this Quarter Final, especially considering he has had to negotiate two 5 set matches already. This run would be seen as a bonus as his career winds down and I struggle to see how he can be really competitive here.
Chela's serve is a weakness, while he doesnt use the guile that others do. I also feel Murray will control the points for the most part and its hard to see Chela winning more than 11 games here.
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games vs Na Li: I will admit I got Na Li's match with Petra Kvitova the wrong way around, but I still think the Chinese Number 1 is not built for clay and will really struggle here. Li herself has admitted clay is not her favourite surface and she now meets one of the hottest women on the tour in the shape of Victoria Azarenka.
Azarenka looks like the injury that forced her retirement in Rome is behind her, and she is barely allowing opponents to get involved in sets.
Li has won 3 of their 4 meetings on the tour, including at the Australian Open earlier this year, but none of their meetings have come on clay, a surface that favours Azarenka more.
I just feel the nature of the surface allows Azarenka more time to dictate the points and I expect she will come through in straight sets.
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games vs Andrea Petkovic: Maria Sharapova has been consistent this season and now looks like she is smelling the chance to win yet another Major. There has been a little inconsistency in her performances so far, but the win in Rome showed Sharapova is ready to take this title home.
Sharapova has beaten the likes of Agnieska Radwanska, Sam Stosur and Caroline Wozniacki over the last couple of tournaments and has proved she can handle the slower stuff.
Andrea Petkovic is a real example for all those that work hard everyday that you can be rewarded. This is the 2nd Major of the season that she has reached the Quarter Finals and Petkovic also has the confidence behind her having won in Strasbourg in the last tournament before Paris.
However, Petkovic has not had an easy tournament and this is by far the hardest test she would have faced on the clay courts this season. The head to head is also 2-1 in favour of Sharapova, although none of the matches took place on clay, and I think the Russian will be able to overpower her opponent here.
I just noticed that I am picking all 4 favourites to cover the spreads tomorrow- Both Nadal and Azarenka are more on hunches and feeling of the match ups; Nadal has struggled in this tournament and Li has a winning record over Azarenka.
I just feel that all 4 favourites have a little extra on their opponents and can make it through to the next Round without having too many bumps along the way. Nadal and Murray may lose tight sets, but I think their prowess over their opponents will let them come through while clearing the handicap.
Both Azarenka and Sharapova have clear upsides on their opponents and the Women's game tends to throw up a few more easy sets which means even the loss of a set can be overcome.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (3 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games @ 2.10 BetFred (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 12.27 Units (- 7 Units Day 10 eurghhhh)
These things will happen in a 2 week tournament, but we still remain in a very strong position overall for the tournament and must look to bounce back in the correct fashion.
The Men's draw also gave us a wonderful Semi Final for Friday as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer both reached that stage. While the initial drama will be surrounding Djokovic's unbeaten start to the season, we also have the intrigue of seeing if Federer is still a genuine threat at the business end of Slams as well as the chance for Djokovic to take over the World Number 1 Ranking in time for Wimbledon with a win.
The Women's draw sees the reigning Champion, Schiavone, take on France's last hope in their Slam in the form of Marion Bartoli. My initial reaction is again how much Schiavone can get Bartoli on the move as the French Woman is probably better off the ground.
That should be an entertaining Semi Final on Thursday as the tournament draws to a close.
Now on to Day 11 Picks:
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Robin Soderling: I am sure we have all read up on Nadal's private thoughts, thoughts that he made very public after his win over Ivan Ljubicic on Monday. Nadal admits he is not playing well but this is coming from someone who believes he has only been 'so-so' in previous trips to Paris.
It is clear that Nadal is not his usual dominating self at the moment, but he is a Champion that usually reserves his best tennis until the latter end of tournaments. Now he faces a huge test in the form of Robin Soderling.
Soderling is the only man to have beaten Nadal here in Paris, and has been playing pretty solid tennis. However, he has checked out of some sets this past 10 days and needs to keep to a high level if he wants to surprise Nadal.
Nadal will also have added motivation from the fact that he is not the biggest fan of Soderling and they have had issues in the past. You sense this will push the Spaniard on to play his best match of the tournament and perhaps see him produce something similar to either his win here at Roland Garros last year or at Wimbledon.
Soderling may take a set, but I see Nadal progressing here and covering the spread.
Andy Murray - 6.5 games vs Juan Ignacio Chela: The real issue about this match up is how well Andy Murray will recover to play again so soon after his win over Victor Troicki. His game matches up so well against Chela's, as proven in victories over the Argentinian in 2009 and 2010 here, both with plenty to spare.
Murray has admitted there is a partial tear in his right ankle, but he also feels he can get through the tournament (I wouldnt expect him to play at Queens next week).
Chela is the oldest man left in the draw and has done remarkably well to get through to this Quarter Final, especially considering he has had to negotiate two 5 set matches already. This run would be seen as a bonus as his career winds down and I struggle to see how he can be really competitive here.
Chela's serve is a weakness, while he doesnt use the guile that others do. I also feel Murray will control the points for the most part and its hard to see Chela winning more than 11 games here.
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games vs Na Li: I will admit I got Na Li's match with Petra Kvitova the wrong way around, but I still think the Chinese Number 1 is not built for clay and will really struggle here. Li herself has admitted clay is not her favourite surface and she now meets one of the hottest women on the tour in the shape of Victoria Azarenka.
Azarenka looks like the injury that forced her retirement in Rome is behind her, and she is barely allowing opponents to get involved in sets.
Li has won 3 of their 4 meetings on the tour, including at the Australian Open earlier this year, but none of their meetings have come on clay, a surface that favours Azarenka more.
I just feel the nature of the surface allows Azarenka more time to dictate the points and I expect she will come through in straight sets.
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games vs Andrea Petkovic: Maria Sharapova has been consistent this season and now looks like she is smelling the chance to win yet another Major. There has been a little inconsistency in her performances so far, but the win in Rome showed Sharapova is ready to take this title home.
Sharapova has beaten the likes of Agnieska Radwanska, Sam Stosur and Caroline Wozniacki over the last couple of tournaments and has proved she can handle the slower stuff.
Andrea Petkovic is a real example for all those that work hard everyday that you can be rewarded. This is the 2nd Major of the season that she has reached the Quarter Finals and Petkovic also has the confidence behind her having won in Strasbourg in the last tournament before Paris.
However, Petkovic has not had an easy tournament and this is by far the hardest test she would have faced on the clay courts this season. The head to head is also 2-1 in favour of Sharapova, although none of the matches took place on clay, and I think the Russian will be able to overpower her opponent here.
I just noticed that I am picking all 4 favourites to cover the spreads tomorrow- Both Nadal and Azarenka are more on hunches and feeling of the match ups; Nadal has struggled in this tournament and Li has a winning record over Azarenka.
I just feel that all 4 favourites have a little extra on their opponents and can make it through to the next Round without having too many bumps along the way. Nadal and Murray may lose tight sets, but I think their prowess over their opponents will let them come through while clearing the handicap.
Both Azarenka and Sharapova have clear upsides on their opponents and the Women's game tends to throw up a few more easy sets which means even the loss of a set can be overcome.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (3 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games @ 2.10 BetFred (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 12.27 Units (- 7 Units Day 10 eurghhhh)
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