The first few days of this week had been very difficult for the picks, but things have turned around after a very good Thursday which saw they daily picks go 5-2 to put this week back into the black. There are still a couple of days left of the week and I am hoping to build on the momentum from Thursday.
The WTA Finals is fast approaching and the top eight places have almost been completely set, but Svetlana Kuznetsova has reached the Semi Final in Moscow and needs two more wins to finish above Johanna Konta in the Race for Singapore. Kuznetsova has a big Semi Final on Friday to play as she looks to win the tournament in Moscow for a second season in a row, while the ATP tournaments this week have all reached the Quarter Final Round.
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: There are some matches on the tennis Tour that seem to suit players and you have to think Fabio Fognini is very confident he can get the better of Albert Ramos-Vinolas in this Quarter Final. This is going to be the ninth time they have met on the professional Tour, but it is Fognini who has won the previous eight which includes a straight sets win in Shanghai earlier this month.
The recent form suggest Ramos-Vinolas might be able to make this a more competitive match against Fognini, but the Italian is the better player in the rallies and makes a big difference when neither player possesses a huge serve.
Fognini has a couple of solid wins behind him this week in Moscow and that should give him more confidence to deal with Ramos-Vinolas yet again. You simply cannot escape the fact that Ramos-Vinolas is going to have to overcome some real mental obstacles with the eight match losing run against Fognini and his lefty serve is clearly not an issue for Fognini to work to break point and subsequent breaks.
The Italian has covered this number of games in seven of the previous eight matches with Ramos-Vinolas and Fognini is playing well enough to find a way to do that again.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: Everyone knows that Ivo Karlovic is capable of bringing some big serving to the court every time he steps up to the line to serve. That makes him dangerous, but Karlovic has not been as strong in this department this season and the hot form of a couple of months ago has definitely cooled down now.
Karlovic will always be dangerous with the serve he possesses, but Juan Martin Del Potro faced John Isner already this week and so should have his eye in for what he will be seeing coming from the other side of the court. Del Potro is not a small man either and his levers should give him a chance to get enough balls back in play and some with considerable speed which will make it difficult for Karlovic to control his volleys.
The Argentinian is moving up the World Rankings and the key for him is to make sure he looks after his own service games and then tries to get involved in Karlovic's. I don't think Del Potro will have a lot of chances, but he showed in the win over Isner that he can take the few chances he does create against a huge server.
The difference between Isner and Karlovic is the need of the latter to get into the net and make volleys, but even that will be difficult after the second or third shot against Del Potro and I think the former US Open Champion wins this one 76, 64.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: The indoor hard courts have seen the best performances from Jan-Lennard Struff through his career and he has reached the Quarter Final in Antwerp. However he has had some trouble along the way and the match with Richard Gasquet is another step up from his previous opponents.
The win over Gilles Simon was impressive, but I am not sure how much Simon had left in the tank after a long and gruelling week in Shanghai which had ended just a few days ago. Travelling all the way back to Europe and playing in this tournament doesn't sound the most appealing of schedules but Simon still had enough chances to win that match with Struff.
Gasquet should be the best server that Struff has faced this week and that has to be a concern when you think he has given up 28 break points in just two matches. Struff should be full of confidence having won a Challenger event on this circuit recently but he is scheduled to be at the Vienna Qualifying this weekend and I wonder if he will have the fight to dig in if he does get behind by a set.
It hasn't been the most productive few weeks for Gasquet, but he was an easy winner in the Second Round and has plenty of indoor hard court experience too. If he can use that effectively I think the Frenchman can come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Semi Final to come on Saturday.
Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: There is no doubting that Pablo Cuevas as a Seed in a hard court event is very vulnerable and his best tennis is restricted to the clay courts. He has been very good on the clay this season which has seen him move up to Number 22 in the World Rankings and likely a Seed for the Australian Open, but that means I tend to stick away from him when it comes to being a favourite on the hard courts.
Cuevas hasn't shown a lot of positive form since the Tour moved onto the last quarter of the season which is predominantly a hard court time of the year. I think it is also telling that he has not won back to back matches on this surface in the last twelve months and so it might come as a surprise that I am going to back him to win this Quarter Final.
That has much to do with the opponent he is facing as he meets fellow South American Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, another player who doesn't have a lot of hard court form behind him and who is much more comfortable on the slower surfaces. Schwartzman should be credited for winning two matches in Antwerp already, but he too had been struggling with the move back to the hard courts.
The match up should be one that Cuevas enjoys much more as it should be one that develops into the kind of rallies you would see on the slower surfaces. I do think Cuevas has the bigger serve, which could be key, although the doubt remains with his lack of results on the hard courts in the past. However, I think Cuevas won't have too many better chances to reach a Semi Final of an indoor hard court event and I think he battles through with a 64, 57, 64 win.
Julia Goerges + 2.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: A couple of years ago Julia Goerges might have been considered a player that would be making the next step in her career to challenge some of the better players on the Tour. That hasn't really happened for her on the Singles Tour, but she has performed better on the Doubles Tour which should see her competing at the WTA Finals next week.
For now she can concentrate on finishing her Singles season on a high as she gets set for this tough Semi Final with Daria Gavrilova. Both players have shown good form this week and I imagine Gavrilova will be going to Doubles partner Daria Kasatkina for tips having seen Goerges beat her handily in the Quarter Final.
I think Gavrilova has a little more power off the ground than Kasatkina at this stage of their careers though and that should give Goerges a few more things to think about. However Goerges has been setting up her play very well this week behind her serve and it should be able to keep her in this match and potentially win outright.
I really don't think there is as much between the players as the layers clearly believe. Both should have their moments and, unless Goerges is thinking about heading to Singapore for the Doubles event at the WTA Finals, I think both realise how much is on the line in terms of vital Ranking points they can earn this week.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if we need three sets to separate these players, but Goerges is the kind of streaky player that can be hard to stop when she is putting her tennis together like she has this week. Backing her with the games should be enough for the cover if this does go deep into a third set like I am anticipating, while I can't rule out Goerges winning this one straight up and at odds against I will back her with the start.
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 games v Monica Niculescu: It has been a miserable couple of months for Kiki Bertens, but 2016 has been a strong season for her and something to build upon in 2017. She is looking to end the season on a high having returned to winning ways in Luxembourg and Bertens has been good for my picks over the last couple of Rounds.
I am going to try and make it a hat-trick backing the in form Dutchwoman in this Semi Final although I think Monica Niculescu deserves a healthy respect with her ability to bamboozle opponents with her variation. She is not the kind of player you will see very often on the Tour and Bertens has to remain concentrated or this match could quickly slip away from her.
The power off the ground and from the serve is all with Bertens and she certainly has the tools to break down the Niculescu game. However it is the Romanian's movement around the court which forces players to hit closer and closer to the lines which extracts errors and can wear players down mentally which is a concern as Bertens has been doing a lot of losing before this week in Luxembourg.
The one benefit for Bertens is she has faced Niculescu before and even in a losing effort she should have learned something. If she concentrates on her own service games the pressure should build on Niculescu who doesn't have the same sort of power as Bertens and I think that can lead to a 63, 46, 64 win for the Number 3 Seed.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Julia Goerges + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-6, + 3.16 Units (28 Units Staked, + 11.29% Yield)
Showing posts with label Moscow Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Moscow Picks. Show all posts
Friday, 21 October 2016
Thursday, 20 October 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (October 20th)
Now we have reached Thursday in another week on the Tour it is that time when there are plenty of matches to be scheduled in the various tournaments across the Tour.
Many players are now looking towards the end of the 2016 season and that means putting in one final big effort to end this season on a high and I think that brings in plenty of motivation for the players left in the tournaments. That is especially the case for those players on the WTA Tour which is effectively ending for most at the end of this week, while the ATP Tour still has a couple more weeks to go before they get to their World Tour Finals.
This has not been the greatest week so far for the picks, but there are a lot of matches of interest for me on Thursday and I am looking to get this turned around going into the weekend.
Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 games v Jurgen Zopp: There have been signs Grigor Dimitrov is getting back to something close to his best and he is looking to finish 2016 in a manner that will give him confidence to take into 2017. Getting used to the conditions in Stockholm might take Dimitrov a little time, but I expect he will be too good for Jurgen Zopp.
I do have to say that I have seen Zopp produce some big serving days in his career and he has won every set to come through the Qualifiers and First Round in Stockholm this week. Zopp has been in tremendously poor form before the last couple of weeks when he has put some wins on the board as he had lost 10 matches in a row while a number of those losses have come in very one-sided fashion.
There is no doubt that Zopp is a dangerous player on the indoor hard courts if he is serving up to the standard he can reach. However there haven't been enough signs of that in recent months and Zopp is facing a player in Dimitrov who is significantly stronger than the players he has been playing in that time excluding a pretty impressive win over Sam Querrey earlier this week.
Even Querrey isn't quite as good as Dimitrov when he is producing something near his best tennis and I think the latter is going to win the majority of rallies. The key will be getting enough balls back in play, but I think Dimitrov will be able to start reading the serve and that can see him come through with a 75, 62 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: I was wondering if Juan Martin Del Potro had a lot left in the tank after his exertions over the last few months on his return to the Tour, but he looked solid in a win over John Isner in the First Round. That won't have sapped too much energy from a physical standpoint and I think Del Potro is going to get the better of Nicolas Almagro in the Second Round.
The Spaniard had to battle from a set down to move through to the Second Round, but Almagro has struggled to find his best tennis on the hard courts, be it indoor or outdoor, over the last couple of seasons. You might expect better from Almagro who has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes, but I think he prefers having a little more time to wind up his shots and that is not likely to be forthcoming in this Second Round match.
Instead Almagro will likely have the ball moving quickly through the court from the power that Del Potro has and I also think he will have some difficulty dealing with the big Argentinian serve.
That serve should build the pressure on Almagro and I do think he doesn't protect his serve as well as he should on this surface. I feel that is going to be a key to this entire handicap and I can see Almagro throwing in around three terrible service games which is going to lead to Del Potro coming through with a 63, 64 win as he continues earning the points to move back up the World Rankings.
Gael Monfils - 5.5 games v Gastao Elias: There are still two really big weeks on the ATP Tour to come so Gael Monfils knows there is still work to do if he is going to make it to London for the World Tour Finals. This is a chance for him to put some additional points in the bank in a week where the majority of his main rivals for a top eight place are not in action and that should be motivation enough for the Frenchman.
Monfils has played a fair amount of tennis over the last three weeks but he has mainly been producing some very good results on the Tour. He has certainly looked stronger than his opponent Gastao Elias who snapped a run of six straight losses before beating Ivan Dodig in the First Round.
Elias' three previous losses before the win over Dodig have come in one sided fashion and I think his serve is very vulnerable on the hard courts. There won't be a lot of cheap points won by Elias which means having to out-rally better players consistently and I simply don't see the Portuguese player being able to do that against Monfils on Thursday.
On the other hand the Monfils serve can be a big weapon for the top ten player and I think that will help build the pressure in this match. His strong movement around the court should give Monfils enough time to wear down Elias over the course of this match and I think he will produce a 64, 62 win in this Second Round match.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 games v Timea Babos: Svetlana Kuznetsova is the defending Champion in Moscow and winning the title again will give the Russian a place at the WTA Finals which are due to begin in Singapore next week. She battled past Alize Cornet in the Second Round, but the matches are only going to get tougher for Kuznetsova with the pressure of also trying to reach the WTA Finals likely to be on her mind.
The Russian has tried to play down the fact she might be looking too far ahead and instead is looking to take this week one match at a time. Kuznetsova faces Timea Babos in the Quarter Final after the latter got the better of Kristina Mladenovic, but this is a much more difficult match for her.
I think Babos has been underrated for much of the season with plenty of matches against the big names on the Tour being very competitive. However before this week Babos had just been having some difficulties on the Singles Tour and that might have something to do with her qualifying for the WTA Finals Doubles tournament.
Babos will need to serve well if she is going to get the better of Kuznetsova as it feels much of her confidence is based on that shot. However I think Kuznetsova is an aggressive returner who can challenge that serve and she should be the better player in the rallies with the power forcing Babos backwards. I expect that will help Kuznetsova win two tight sets and have just enough to cover this number.
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 games v Denisa Allertova: The poor form of the last few months has been forgotten this week by Kiki Bertens who has managed to win her first two matches in Luxembourg very easily. The matches do get tougher for her going into the Quarter Final in this tournament, but I think Bertens can get the better of Denisa Allertova in this match.
Allertova has had to come from a set down twice already this week and I do wonder if that will have taken something from her physically. She has been in good form over the last couple of weeks with a Semi Final and Quarter Final to her name and she plays with plenty of aggression which will give Bertens some issues.
However I think Bertens has the slight edge when it comes to the serve and she has plenty power of her own. Getting in the first strike in this tennis match will be important for both players and I think it will be a competitive match that might need a deciding set to separate the players.
With the ease of her progress I think Bertens can batten down the hatches in the final set and she can eventually see off Allertova with a 63, 36, 63 win and move through to the Semi Final here in Luxembourg.
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games v Johanna Larsson: The WTA Finals are out of reach for Petra Kvitova but she will be heading to the WTA Elite tournament which is played a week after that event. The form has most definitely improved in the final weeks of the season which included a title win in Wuhan and Kvitova showed her mental strength by coming through her Second Round match after dropping the first set.
This is a tough Quarter Final for Kvitova against Johanna Larsson who has a decent serve and that can pose problems.
The Swede has a great kicker, but Larsson can struggle to deal with the power that comes back and Kvitova has plenty of that for this match. They did play a tight match in Indian Wells earlier this season which was won by Kvitova in three sets, but it perhaps should have been easier as Kvitova had more than double the break points and won 44% of the points against the Larsson serve.
Similar numbers will make it difficult for Larsson to stay with Kvitova who looks to be in much stronger form now than she was back in March. While this does look a lot of games on the face of things, Kvitova has been dominating opponents in wins over the last month and I think she can wear down Larsson and record a 63, 63 win for a place in the Semi Final.
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games v Monica Niculescu: Any talk of an impending retirement have been put to the back burner by Caroline Wozniacki's recent form which has taken her back inside the top 20 in the World Rankings. The former World Number 1 is ending the 2016 with the kind of momentum that should give her confidence to take into the 2017 season and I think she looks strong for a position in the Semi Final in Luxembourg.
The Quarter Final match up against Monica Niculescu should be one that Wozniacki enjoys having beaten her in all seven previous matches on the main Tour. Wozniacki hasn't dropped a set in those matches and she would have covered this number in all seven matches too as she can handle the variation that Niculescu brings to the court.
There are enough areas on the court where Niculescu will struggle to hurt Wozniacki and that has proven to be the case in the past. Even in defensive positions Wozniacki knows she can go to the forehand and it will almost neutralise her position and give her a chance to get back into the rally.
That is so important and Wozniacki should have enough success through this match to move through with a relatively straight-forward 63, 63 win. I thought the layers would have asked for Wozniacki to cover at least another game especially as Wozniacki is in very good form including winning the title in Hong Kong last week. I don't mind though and will take the Danish player to cover on Thursday.
Andrea Petkovic - 2.5 games v Lauren Davis: The last few months have been filled with injury issues and some poor performances from Andrea Petkovic, but she has won two matches here and that should give her some confidence. She is not going to have things easy against Lauren Davis who works hard on the court, but Petkovic should have enough of an edge when it comes to the power behind the groundstrokes to break down the American in this Quarter Final.
The Petkovic serve should provide a few more easy points than Davis' who has to work hard to win her games, but the form is certainly behind the latter.
Davis has already won five matches in Luxembourg to get to the Quarter Final and she had to battle hard to come through her Second Round match in three sets. That is a lot of tennis to be played but Davis has shown a couple of times over the last three months that she can be difficult to stop once she has built up some momentum. That has led to reaching the Final in Washington and Quebec City before falling short and it makes Davis a dangerous opponent for Petkovic in this Quarter Final.
However I think Petkovic is the stronger player and her two wins this week will have given her some confidence. She should have enough of an edge behind the serve to battle through this match and win 63, 57, 64 for a place in the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Many players are now looking towards the end of the 2016 season and that means putting in one final big effort to end this season on a high and I think that brings in plenty of motivation for the players left in the tournaments. That is especially the case for those players on the WTA Tour which is effectively ending for most at the end of this week, while the ATP Tour still has a couple more weeks to go before they get to their World Tour Finals.
This has not been the greatest week so far for the picks, but there are a lot of matches of interest for me on Thursday and I am looking to get this turned around going into the weekend.
Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 games v Jurgen Zopp: There have been signs Grigor Dimitrov is getting back to something close to his best and he is looking to finish 2016 in a manner that will give him confidence to take into 2017. Getting used to the conditions in Stockholm might take Dimitrov a little time, but I expect he will be too good for Jurgen Zopp.
I do have to say that I have seen Zopp produce some big serving days in his career and he has won every set to come through the Qualifiers and First Round in Stockholm this week. Zopp has been in tremendously poor form before the last couple of weeks when he has put some wins on the board as he had lost 10 matches in a row while a number of those losses have come in very one-sided fashion.
There is no doubt that Zopp is a dangerous player on the indoor hard courts if he is serving up to the standard he can reach. However there haven't been enough signs of that in recent months and Zopp is facing a player in Dimitrov who is significantly stronger than the players he has been playing in that time excluding a pretty impressive win over Sam Querrey earlier this week.
Even Querrey isn't quite as good as Dimitrov when he is producing something near his best tennis and I think the latter is going to win the majority of rallies. The key will be getting enough balls back in play, but I think Dimitrov will be able to start reading the serve and that can see him come through with a 75, 62 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: I was wondering if Juan Martin Del Potro had a lot left in the tank after his exertions over the last few months on his return to the Tour, but he looked solid in a win over John Isner in the First Round. That won't have sapped too much energy from a physical standpoint and I think Del Potro is going to get the better of Nicolas Almagro in the Second Round.
The Spaniard had to battle from a set down to move through to the Second Round, but Almagro has struggled to find his best tennis on the hard courts, be it indoor or outdoor, over the last couple of seasons. You might expect better from Almagro who has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes, but I think he prefers having a little more time to wind up his shots and that is not likely to be forthcoming in this Second Round match.
Instead Almagro will likely have the ball moving quickly through the court from the power that Del Potro has and I also think he will have some difficulty dealing with the big Argentinian serve.
That serve should build the pressure on Almagro and I do think he doesn't protect his serve as well as he should on this surface. I feel that is going to be a key to this entire handicap and I can see Almagro throwing in around three terrible service games which is going to lead to Del Potro coming through with a 63, 64 win as he continues earning the points to move back up the World Rankings.
Gael Monfils - 5.5 games v Gastao Elias: There are still two really big weeks on the ATP Tour to come so Gael Monfils knows there is still work to do if he is going to make it to London for the World Tour Finals. This is a chance for him to put some additional points in the bank in a week where the majority of his main rivals for a top eight place are not in action and that should be motivation enough for the Frenchman.
Monfils has played a fair amount of tennis over the last three weeks but he has mainly been producing some very good results on the Tour. He has certainly looked stronger than his opponent Gastao Elias who snapped a run of six straight losses before beating Ivan Dodig in the First Round.
Elias' three previous losses before the win over Dodig have come in one sided fashion and I think his serve is very vulnerable on the hard courts. There won't be a lot of cheap points won by Elias which means having to out-rally better players consistently and I simply don't see the Portuguese player being able to do that against Monfils on Thursday.
On the other hand the Monfils serve can be a big weapon for the top ten player and I think that will help build the pressure in this match. His strong movement around the court should give Monfils enough time to wear down Elias over the course of this match and I think he will produce a 64, 62 win in this Second Round match.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 games v Timea Babos: Svetlana Kuznetsova is the defending Champion in Moscow and winning the title again will give the Russian a place at the WTA Finals which are due to begin in Singapore next week. She battled past Alize Cornet in the Second Round, but the matches are only going to get tougher for Kuznetsova with the pressure of also trying to reach the WTA Finals likely to be on her mind.
The Russian has tried to play down the fact she might be looking too far ahead and instead is looking to take this week one match at a time. Kuznetsova faces Timea Babos in the Quarter Final after the latter got the better of Kristina Mladenovic, but this is a much more difficult match for her.
I think Babos has been underrated for much of the season with plenty of matches against the big names on the Tour being very competitive. However before this week Babos had just been having some difficulties on the Singles Tour and that might have something to do with her qualifying for the WTA Finals Doubles tournament.
Babos will need to serve well if she is going to get the better of Kuznetsova as it feels much of her confidence is based on that shot. However I think Kuznetsova is an aggressive returner who can challenge that serve and she should be the better player in the rallies with the power forcing Babos backwards. I expect that will help Kuznetsova win two tight sets and have just enough to cover this number.
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 games v Denisa Allertova: The poor form of the last few months has been forgotten this week by Kiki Bertens who has managed to win her first two matches in Luxembourg very easily. The matches do get tougher for her going into the Quarter Final in this tournament, but I think Bertens can get the better of Denisa Allertova in this match.
Allertova has had to come from a set down twice already this week and I do wonder if that will have taken something from her physically. She has been in good form over the last couple of weeks with a Semi Final and Quarter Final to her name and she plays with plenty of aggression which will give Bertens some issues.
However I think Bertens has the slight edge when it comes to the serve and she has plenty power of her own. Getting in the first strike in this tennis match will be important for both players and I think it will be a competitive match that might need a deciding set to separate the players.
With the ease of her progress I think Bertens can batten down the hatches in the final set and she can eventually see off Allertova with a 63, 36, 63 win and move through to the Semi Final here in Luxembourg.
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games v Johanna Larsson: The WTA Finals are out of reach for Petra Kvitova but she will be heading to the WTA Elite tournament which is played a week after that event. The form has most definitely improved in the final weeks of the season which included a title win in Wuhan and Kvitova showed her mental strength by coming through her Second Round match after dropping the first set.
This is a tough Quarter Final for Kvitova against Johanna Larsson who has a decent serve and that can pose problems.
The Swede has a great kicker, but Larsson can struggle to deal with the power that comes back and Kvitova has plenty of that for this match. They did play a tight match in Indian Wells earlier this season which was won by Kvitova in three sets, but it perhaps should have been easier as Kvitova had more than double the break points and won 44% of the points against the Larsson serve.
Similar numbers will make it difficult for Larsson to stay with Kvitova who looks to be in much stronger form now than she was back in March. While this does look a lot of games on the face of things, Kvitova has been dominating opponents in wins over the last month and I think she can wear down Larsson and record a 63, 63 win for a place in the Semi Final.
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games v Monica Niculescu: Any talk of an impending retirement have been put to the back burner by Caroline Wozniacki's recent form which has taken her back inside the top 20 in the World Rankings. The former World Number 1 is ending the 2016 with the kind of momentum that should give her confidence to take into the 2017 season and I think she looks strong for a position in the Semi Final in Luxembourg.
The Quarter Final match up against Monica Niculescu should be one that Wozniacki enjoys having beaten her in all seven previous matches on the main Tour. Wozniacki hasn't dropped a set in those matches and she would have covered this number in all seven matches too as she can handle the variation that Niculescu brings to the court.
There are enough areas on the court where Niculescu will struggle to hurt Wozniacki and that has proven to be the case in the past. Even in defensive positions Wozniacki knows she can go to the forehand and it will almost neutralise her position and give her a chance to get back into the rally.
That is so important and Wozniacki should have enough success through this match to move through with a relatively straight-forward 63, 63 win. I thought the layers would have asked for Wozniacki to cover at least another game especially as Wozniacki is in very good form including winning the title in Hong Kong last week. I don't mind though and will take the Danish player to cover on Thursday.
Andrea Petkovic - 2.5 games v Lauren Davis: The last few months have been filled with injury issues and some poor performances from Andrea Petkovic, but she has won two matches here and that should give her some confidence. She is not going to have things easy against Lauren Davis who works hard on the court, but Petkovic should have enough of an edge when it comes to the power behind the groundstrokes to break down the American in this Quarter Final.
The Petkovic serve should provide a few more easy points than Davis' who has to work hard to win her games, but the form is certainly behind the latter.
Davis has already won five matches in Luxembourg to get to the Quarter Final and she had to battle hard to come through her Second Round match in three sets. That is a lot of tennis to be played but Davis has shown a couple of times over the last three months that she can be difficult to stop once she has built up some momentum. That has led to reaching the Final in Washington and Quebec City before falling short and it makes Davis a dangerous opponent for Petkovic in this Quarter Final.
However I think Petkovic is the stronger player and her two wins this week will have given her some confidence. She should have enough of an edge behind the serve to battle through this match and win 63, 57, 64 for a place in the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Wednesday, 19 October 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (October 19th)
It is the middle of the week for the tournaments that have been set for the week and that means there are plenty of matches scheduled for the day.
Yesterday the picks went a disappointing 1-1, but I am looking for the Wednesday matches to really get this week going.
John Isner + 2.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: There should be plenty of big serving on display in this match between John Isner and Juan Martin Del Potro but I am a little surprised the latter is such a strong favourite. He did win the first four matches played between them, but it is John Isner who has managed to battle through in the last two matches.
There hasn't been too many sightings of Isner on the Tour since the US Open and his sole match since then was a one sided loss to Alexander Zverev. 2016 has perhaps not been as productive a season as Isner would have liked, but I do wonder if his opponent Del Potro has much left in the tank after playing as many matches as he has on his return from injury.
He looked a little tired in his defeat in Shanghai last week, but Del Potro will at least know he won't be involved in long rallies in this one that might sap energy. Instead he has to show his mental strength in a match where John Isner is going to be tough to break even if his serving has been below par in the last six weeks.
Tie-breakers look to be the order of the day with Isner and Del Potro in the match and I do think the American might have the mental edge having won the last two times these players have met on the Tour. I am a little bothered that Isner has barely played any tennis since early September, but Del Potro might already be looking towards 2017 and being able to recover both physically and mentally from a tough 2016. I'll take the games with Isner in this one and look for him to keep it competitive if not win outright.
Carla Suarez Navarro - 2.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: With Serena Williams pulling out of the WTA Finals and Johanna Konta injured and not playing this week, there might be room for Carla Suarez Navarro to earn a place in Singapore next week. The task is simple for Suarez Navarro this week and that is she needs to win the tournament in Moscow which will be good enough to move above Konta in the Number 8 spot.
That puts some pressure on the Spaniard and it will be far from easy to win a tournament which is loaded with plenty of talent. Straight away Suarez Navarro will play against Daria Gavrilova who has had her best year on the Tour and will be looking to kick on in 2017 which opens up with plenty of events in Australia, Gavrilova's new home.
There is plenty to like about Gavrilova's game and she has the power to give Suarez Navarro something to think about, especially when it comes to returning what is a limited second serve. Even the first serve is not particularly intimidating and I do think Gavrilova will have her chances to break serve.
However I think Gavrilova will also be under pressure from Suarez Navarro who has the consistency to break her down when the rallies develop. While there will be times Gavrilova will hit through the court and penetrate the Suarez Navarro defences, I do think she can be worn down mentally and that can see the Spaniard prevail 64, 46, 63.
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: It was a big week for Elina Svitolina who reached the Semi Final in Beijing as she looks to end 2016 with another strong showing. She was in fine form in Beijing but Svitolina is still to show the consistency that can see her make the business end of tournaments on a regular basis and prove she more than belongs inside the top 20 of the World Rankings.
The match with Yulia Putintseva is going to be a difficult one for Svitolina because she will be asked to make plenty of balls from the feisty player she is facing. That can see her struggle off the ground at times but I think Svitolina has the edge when it comes to the serve and that can be a big difference maker.
Instead of having to rely on winning rally after rally, Svitolina should have a chance to play plenty of first strike tennis behind her first serve, while she will also have the time to attack the Putintseva serve. I think that has played a big part in Svitolina winning the last three matches against Putintseva after initially losing the first two matches and this should be the key to having success in this match.
I do have to say that there are times when Svitolina can lose focus mentally, but she looked very good in Beijing and I look for her to keep the momentum going in a 64, 64 win.
Kristina Mladenovic v Timea Babos: I am a little surprised that Timea Babos has been set as the favourite in this Second Round match in Moscow. She did produce a tough First Round win, but Babos has not been in the best form of late and it would be easy for her to look ahead at next week when she will be playing in the WTA Finals in the Doubles event.
The same could be said of Kristina Mladenovic who is likely to be partnering Caroline Garcia as the top Seed in the Doubles event at the WTA Finals. However the Frenchwoman has shown more form than Babos by reaching the Final at the tournament in Hong Kong last week although the obvious concern is tiredness setting in during a second long week on the Tour.
Mladenovic beat an overmatched opponent in the First Round but Babos is a much more difficult test for her. On the other hand, Mladenovic will have a real mental edge having won four of the five previous matches between these players although only one of those matches was played this season and that came on the clay courts at Roland Garros where Mladenovic would have received massive support.
Both players have decent serves, but can be guilty of silly errors when trying to back that up. I am anticipating quite a close contest, but I would have had Mladenovic as the slight favourite so I will back the underdog in this one to come through and beat Babos in three sets for a place in another Quarter Final.
Jelena Jankovic + 2.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: I have very little doubt that Jelena Jankovic is on the downward slope of her career and that has been highlighted by the fact she is likely to have her fewest wins on the Tour since 2003. The movement around the court is not as good as it used to be, but Jankovic has found some form over the last six weeks since the US Open and I think she can pose some problems for home favourite Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
The season is coming to an end for Pavlyuchenkova and Jankovic, but the Russian should have plenty of motivation playing in Moscow where she has won the tournament in 2014 and then finished Runner Up in defence of that title in 2015.
I think that is part of the reason why she is considered such a strong favourite in this match because Pavlyuchenkova has not produced too many wins since the US Open. She did play well in Linz last week before coming up short in the Quarter Final and Pavlyuchenkova has the superior serve in this match that can provide some cheap points and keep Jankovic under pressure.
In the past it has been the movement of Jankovic and forcing Pavlyuchenkova to hit extra balls that has kept the former World Number 1 competitive in matches. While I do think she has lost that half a step around the court, the recent form suggests Jankovic can trouble Pavlyuchenkova again and perhaps make these games count in a tight match.
Since the US Open Jankovic has been much more competitive and I think she can steal a set which will make it difficult for Pavlyuchenkova to cover this number.
Kiki Bertens - 3.5 games v Anna Schmiedlova: Neither Kiki Bertens or Anna Schmiedlova will be pointing to any great form in the closing stages of 2016 as they battle each other for the right to reach the Quarter Final in Luxembourg. However this has been a season that Bertens will look back on much more fondly than Schmiedlova who has won just 5/27 matches on the main Tour a year after finishing 2015 with 37 match wins.
Unsurprisingly Schmiedlova has dropped outside the top 100 of the World Rankings and the mental block of all those losses has seen her lose other matches from very strong winning positions. The win over Yanina Wickmayer was impressive, but Schmiedlova will have to raise her game again if Bertens has recovered some of the lost form of recent weeks.
Bertens had lost seven matches in a row before beating Annika Beck in the First Round and she has been a little overrated behind a very strong clay court season when she surpassed most expectations. I don't think she has been fully healthy, which is a concern too, but she looked a little better in beating Beck in the First Round and the Dutchwoman will be Seeded going into the Australian Open in January.
Her record on the hard courts is a concern when backing her in this match, but I do think she is in a superior place mentally than Schmiedlova who probably wants to draw a line under the 2016 season. Bertens crushed her on the clay courts when they met earlier this season, but I anticipate this will be closer on the indoor hard courts, although ultimately I like Bertens to cover in a 75, 64 win after a few breaks of serve are shared out.
MY PICKS: John Isner + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.34 Units (4 Units Staked, - 8.5% Yield)
Yesterday the picks went a disappointing 1-1, but I am looking for the Wednesday matches to really get this week going.
John Isner + 2.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: There should be plenty of big serving on display in this match between John Isner and Juan Martin Del Potro but I am a little surprised the latter is such a strong favourite. He did win the first four matches played between them, but it is John Isner who has managed to battle through in the last two matches.
There hasn't been too many sightings of Isner on the Tour since the US Open and his sole match since then was a one sided loss to Alexander Zverev. 2016 has perhaps not been as productive a season as Isner would have liked, but I do wonder if his opponent Del Potro has much left in the tank after playing as many matches as he has on his return from injury.
He looked a little tired in his defeat in Shanghai last week, but Del Potro will at least know he won't be involved in long rallies in this one that might sap energy. Instead he has to show his mental strength in a match where John Isner is going to be tough to break even if his serving has been below par in the last six weeks.
Tie-breakers look to be the order of the day with Isner and Del Potro in the match and I do think the American might have the mental edge having won the last two times these players have met on the Tour. I am a little bothered that Isner has barely played any tennis since early September, but Del Potro might already be looking towards 2017 and being able to recover both physically and mentally from a tough 2016. I'll take the games with Isner in this one and look for him to keep it competitive if not win outright.
Carla Suarez Navarro - 2.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: With Serena Williams pulling out of the WTA Finals and Johanna Konta injured and not playing this week, there might be room for Carla Suarez Navarro to earn a place in Singapore next week. The task is simple for Suarez Navarro this week and that is she needs to win the tournament in Moscow which will be good enough to move above Konta in the Number 8 spot.
That puts some pressure on the Spaniard and it will be far from easy to win a tournament which is loaded with plenty of talent. Straight away Suarez Navarro will play against Daria Gavrilova who has had her best year on the Tour and will be looking to kick on in 2017 which opens up with plenty of events in Australia, Gavrilova's new home.
There is plenty to like about Gavrilova's game and she has the power to give Suarez Navarro something to think about, especially when it comes to returning what is a limited second serve. Even the first serve is not particularly intimidating and I do think Gavrilova will have her chances to break serve.
However I think Gavrilova will also be under pressure from Suarez Navarro who has the consistency to break her down when the rallies develop. While there will be times Gavrilova will hit through the court and penetrate the Suarez Navarro defences, I do think she can be worn down mentally and that can see the Spaniard prevail 64, 46, 63.
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: It was a big week for Elina Svitolina who reached the Semi Final in Beijing as she looks to end 2016 with another strong showing. She was in fine form in Beijing but Svitolina is still to show the consistency that can see her make the business end of tournaments on a regular basis and prove she more than belongs inside the top 20 of the World Rankings.
The match with Yulia Putintseva is going to be a difficult one for Svitolina because she will be asked to make plenty of balls from the feisty player she is facing. That can see her struggle off the ground at times but I think Svitolina has the edge when it comes to the serve and that can be a big difference maker.
Instead of having to rely on winning rally after rally, Svitolina should have a chance to play plenty of first strike tennis behind her first serve, while she will also have the time to attack the Putintseva serve. I think that has played a big part in Svitolina winning the last three matches against Putintseva after initially losing the first two matches and this should be the key to having success in this match.
I do have to say that there are times when Svitolina can lose focus mentally, but she looked very good in Beijing and I look for her to keep the momentum going in a 64, 64 win.
Kristina Mladenovic v Timea Babos: I am a little surprised that Timea Babos has been set as the favourite in this Second Round match in Moscow. She did produce a tough First Round win, but Babos has not been in the best form of late and it would be easy for her to look ahead at next week when she will be playing in the WTA Finals in the Doubles event.
The same could be said of Kristina Mladenovic who is likely to be partnering Caroline Garcia as the top Seed in the Doubles event at the WTA Finals. However the Frenchwoman has shown more form than Babos by reaching the Final at the tournament in Hong Kong last week although the obvious concern is tiredness setting in during a second long week on the Tour.
Mladenovic beat an overmatched opponent in the First Round but Babos is a much more difficult test for her. On the other hand, Mladenovic will have a real mental edge having won four of the five previous matches between these players although only one of those matches was played this season and that came on the clay courts at Roland Garros where Mladenovic would have received massive support.
Both players have decent serves, but can be guilty of silly errors when trying to back that up. I am anticipating quite a close contest, but I would have had Mladenovic as the slight favourite so I will back the underdog in this one to come through and beat Babos in three sets for a place in another Quarter Final.
Jelena Jankovic + 2.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: I have very little doubt that Jelena Jankovic is on the downward slope of her career and that has been highlighted by the fact she is likely to have her fewest wins on the Tour since 2003. The movement around the court is not as good as it used to be, but Jankovic has found some form over the last six weeks since the US Open and I think she can pose some problems for home favourite Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
The season is coming to an end for Pavlyuchenkova and Jankovic, but the Russian should have plenty of motivation playing in Moscow where she has won the tournament in 2014 and then finished Runner Up in defence of that title in 2015.
I think that is part of the reason why she is considered such a strong favourite in this match because Pavlyuchenkova has not produced too many wins since the US Open. She did play well in Linz last week before coming up short in the Quarter Final and Pavlyuchenkova has the superior serve in this match that can provide some cheap points and keep Jankovic under pressure.
In the past it has been the movement of Jankovic and forcing Pavlyuchenkova to hit extra balls that has kept the former World Number 1 competitive in matches. While I do think she has lost that half a step around the court, the recent form suggests Jankovic can trouble Pavlyuchenkova again and perhaps make these games count in a tight match.
Since the US Open Jankovic has been much more competitive and I think she can steal a set which will make it difficult for Pavlyuchenkova to cover this number.
Kiki Bertens - 3.5 games v Anna Schmiedlova: Neither Kiki Bertens or Anna Schmiedlova will be pointing to any great form in the closing stages of 2016 as they battle each other for the right to reach the Quarter Final in Luxembourg. However this has been a season that Bertens will look back on much more fondly than Schmiedlova who has won just 5/27 matches on the main Tour a year after finishing 2015 with 37 match wins.
Unsurprisingly Schmiedlova has dropped outside the top 100 of the World Rankings and the mental block of all those losses has seen her lose other matches from very strong winning positions. The win over Yanina Wickmayer was impressive, but Schmiedlova will have to raise her game again if Bertens has recovered some of the lost form of recent weeks.
Bertens had lost seven matches in a row before beating Annika Beck in the First Round and she has been a little overrated behind a very strong clay court season when she surpassed most expectations. I don't think she has been fully healthy, which is a concern too, but she looked a little better in beating Beck in the First Round and the Dutchwoman will be Seeded going into the Australian Open in January.
Her record on the hard courts is a concern when backing her in this match, but I do think she is in a superior place mentally than Schmiedlova who probably wants to draw a line under the 2016 season. Bertens crushed her on the clay courts when they met earlier this season, but I anticipate this will be closer on the indoor hard courts, although ultimately I like Bertens to cover in a 75, 64 win after a few breaks of serve are shared out.
MY PICKS: John Isner + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.34 Units (4 Units Staked, - 8.5% Yield)
Tuesday, 18 October 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (October 18th)
This is the final week of the WTA Tour before the WTA Finals begin next week and that means there are still some players out there who are desperate to make it into the top eight.
More room has opened up after Serena Williams decided to withdraw from the tournament with an injury she wishes to recuperate in time for the start of the 2017 season. There are also questions about how healthy Garbine Muguruza and Johanna Konta will be going into the event in Singapore so there has to be a fear that the WTA Finals are not as strong as it should be this year.
There are plenty of ATP events being played this week too as the Race for London begins to heat up too, although the majority of the big names are taking a week to prepare for some ATP 500 events yet to come this season.
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: I will say that I don't think I will ever truly trust Fabio Fognini when it comes to asking him to cover handicaps, especially when he is favoured to win the match. Too often Fognini can bring a really poor attitude to the court, but I do think this is a good spot to back the Italian against Ricardas Berankis.
There is no doubting the talent that Berankis has, but he has to work hard for everything he earns on the court and recent form has not been the best. A retirement saw Berankis end his last match early while he has not been playing at the level that Fognini has been and I think that can play a part in this match.
I can imagine plenty of long rallies between two players that don't have the biggest serves and I also think there will be breaks of serve for both players. It is the kind of match that you could see Fognini losing, but the form of Berankis doesn't scream out upset and I think ultimately the Italian will be too good in this one.
It might need three sets, but Fognini can win this one 57, 63, 64 to move through.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Mikael Ymer: The home crowd in Stockholm will get to see the Ymer brothers back to back on Tuesday as the big hopes of Swedish tennis play in this main tournament draw. It is a big test for Ymer in this one as he takes on veteran Fernando Verdasco without a lot of tennis behind him.
Ymer has spent the majority of this season on the sidelines and will be playing his first hard court event of 2016 when he comes into this match. That is a tough spot to be in especially when playing someone like Verdasco who has the power to push Ymer back and really pressurise him throughout in this match.
This is the kind of pace that Ymer won't have faced too often and I think Verdasco being a lefty is another challenge for the youngster to try and overcome. It feels like it could be a long day for Ymer even if Verdasco is far from at the level he reached during his peak years on the Tour.
It can be tough to really know what to expect from Verdasco who has not been in the best form. However I think he is going to be a little too strong and a little too savvy for Ymer and I can see Verdasco being able to put together a 64, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
More room has opened up after Serena Williams decided to withdraw from the tournament with an injury she wishes to recuperate in time for the start of the 2017 season. There are also questions about how healthy Garbine Muguruza and Johanna Konta will be going into the event in Singapore so there has to be a fear that the WTA Finals are not as strong as it should be this year.
There are plenty of ATP events being played this week too as the Race for London begins to heat up too, although the majority of the big names are taking a week to prepare for some ATP 500 events yet to come this season.
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: I will say that I don't think I will ever truly trust Fabio Fognini when it comes to asking him to cover handicaps, especially when he is favoured to win the match. Too often Fognini can bring a really poor attitude to the court, but I do think this is a good spot to back the Italian against Ricardas Berankis.
There is no doubting the talent that Berankis has, but he has to work hard for everything he earns on the court and recent form has not been the best. A retirement saw Berankis end his last match early while he has not been playing at the level that Fognini has been and I think that can play a part in this match.
I can imagine plenty of long rallies between two players that don't have the biggest serves and I also think there will be breaks of serve for both players. It is the kind of match that you could see Fognini losing, but the form of Berankis doesn't scream out upset and I think ultimately the Italian will be too good in this one.
It might need three sets, but Fognini can win this one 57, 63, 64 to move through.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Mikael Ymer: The home crowd in Stockholm will get to see the Ymer brothers back to back on Tuesday as the big hopes of Swedish tennis play in this main tournament draw. It is a big test for Ymer in this one as he takes on veteran Fernando Verdasco without a lot of tennis behind him.
Ymer has spent the majority of this season on the sidelines and will be playing his first hard court event of 2016 when he comes into this match. That is a tough spot to be in especially when playing someone like Verdasco who has the power to push Ymer back and really pressurise him throughout in this match.
This is the kind of pace that Ymer won't have faced too often and I think Verdasco being a lefty is another challenge for the youngster to try and overcome. It feels like it could be a long day for Ymer even if Verdasco is far from at the level he reached during his peak years on the Tour.
It can be tough to really know what to expect from Verdasco who has not been in the best form. However I think he is going to be a little too strong and a little too savvy for Ymer and I can see Verdasco being able to put together a 64, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Saturday, 24 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 25th)
The WTA Tour Finals begin on Sunday although it looks a difficult tournament to get a handle on considering how many doubts surround some of the top names in the event.
Others may look at some outsiders to win the tournament, but I will instead look at individual matches during the course of the week and hope to produce a positive result from it.
The Finals in Moscow, Stockholm and Vienna are going to be played this Sunday and the draws for Basel and Valencia have been made as the ATP Tour still has a few more weeks to go before the World Tour Finals and the Davis Cup Final finish off the 2015 season.
Flavia Pennetta + 4.5 games v Simona Halep: The WTA Tour Finals opens up between the only Grand Slam winner in the tournament following Serena Williams' decision to withdraw from the event. Flavia Pennetta is the surprise winner of the US Open where she beat Simona Halep very easily in the Semi Final and I think the Italian is perhaps getting too many games in the opening match in Singapore.
If Simona Halep had been fully healthy I could understand her being asked to cover this number of games, but I think she is far from 100% entering the tournament. Some may point out that Flavia Pennetta hasn't looked the same player since winning the US Open with retirement now just a week away, but I am not buying that for this number of games being offered to her backers.
This is is for Pennetta and I have to think she will empty the tank in anticipation of that and there is every chance she can progress to the Semi Finals from this Group. Pennetta also knows she can beat Simona Halep when she is perhaps not at her best as she did in the US Open Final and I think she has had much more competitive tennis in her legs than her opponent.
I can easily see the Italian taking a set in this match and that would be enough to see her keep herself within this number I would feel. The fact I think there is a real chance she can win this match only makes the games more appealing too and I will back Pennetta in my first pick from the WTA Tour Finals this week.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: Marin Cilic had one slight blip on his way through to the Final in Moscow for the second season in a row, but he has looked very good in his last two wins in the event. This is easily the best player that he will have faced this week when he takes on Roberto Bautista Agut who has eased his way through the draw without dropping a set.
This is the second season in a row Cilic and Bautista Agut will be playing in the Final in Moscow and it is likely to be another close match as it was last season. On that occasion it was Cilic who won the big points to win the title in two sets and I expect this to be another match that will decided by a couple of points here and there.
Cilic's serve might prove to be a difference maker as it can help him get out of those difficult moments with relative comfort compared with Bautista Agut. That won't be the same for the Spaniard who will have to win prolonged rallies to come through his service games which can become more of an issue in those pressurised situations.
That played a part in the Bautista Agut's 64, 64 loss to Cilic last season in the Final in Moscow and I think he can retain his title with a similar kind of win.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Jack Sock: When Tomas Berdych and Jack Sock met in Shanghai earlier in the month, it was a very close match that was decided by a couple of points here and there in favour of Berdych. Getting a look at what he is going to face in Stockholm might work in Berdych's favour this week as will the fact that he has come through a number of matches before facing Sock.
This should be a good match considering both players have had some impressive wins this week, and I think the serve is going to be a key weapon for both Berdych and Sock.
Winning a title for the first time is difficult, but Sock has gotten that monkey off his back when winning in Houston so I expect the American to be ready. However, I am not always convinced with his fitness levels and I think Berdych does have the edge in the match in terms of the battle off the ground.
Sock has a lot of confidence though and can make it difficult for Berdych as he did in Shanghai when he took a set off Berdych. However, I think Berdych having seen what Sock can bring to the table will be a little more solid at key moments to win the title in Stockholm with a 76, 64 win.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Steve Johnson: It has been a very good week for Steve Johnson having rode his luck a little bit to get to the Final in Vienna. Now he faces a motivated David Ferrer who is looking to add the points that will put him on the brink of reaching the World Tour Finals without the need to put too much stress on the final two weeks of the season.
David Ferrer is definitely a player in form having also won the title in Kuala Lumper recently and also adding a Semi Final in Beijing to recent successes.
As well as Johnson has played this week, he hasn't been in that same kind of form and I think the American will do well to make this a competitive match. He has a decent serve, but is always likely to throw in at least one sloppy service game per set and is also facing a player that will get plenty of balls back into play and extract the errors that will be expected to follow.
It will come down to whether Ferrer can take the chances that come his way in this one and once he gets in front he can perhaps wear down Johnson mentally in the Final. After some battling games, I like Ferrer winning the title behind a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Flavia Pennetta + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-7, - 3.66 Units (26 Units Staked, - 14.08% Yield)
Others may look at some outsiders to win the tournament, but I will instead look at individual matches during the course of the week and hope to produce a positive result from it.
The Finals in Moscow, Stockholm and Vienna are going to be played this Sunday and the draws for Basel and Valencia have been made as the ATP Tour still has a few more weeks to go before the World Tour Finals and the Davis Cup Final finish off the 2015 season.
Flavia Pennetta + 4.5 games v Simona Halep: The WTA Tour Finals opens up between the only Grand Slam winner in the tournament following Serena Williams' decision to withdraw from the event. Flavia Pennetta is the surprise winner of the US Open where she beat Simona Halep very easily in the Semi Final and I think the Italian is perhaps getting too many games in the opening match in Singapore.
If Simona Halep had been fully healthy I could understand her being asked to cover this number of games, but I think she is far from 100% entering the tournament. Some may point out that Flavia Pennetta hasn't looked the same player since winning the US Open with retirement now just a week away, but I am not buying that for this number of games being offered to her backers.
This is is for Pennetta and I have to think she will empty the tank in anticipation of that and there is every chance she can progress to the Semi Finals from this Group. Pennetta also knows she can beat Simona Halep when she is perhaps not at her best as she did in the US Open Final and I think she has had much more competitive tennis in her legs than her opponent.
I can easily see the Italian taking a set in this match and that would be enough to see her keep herself within this number I would feel. The fact I think there is a real chance she can win this match only makes the games more appealing too and I will back Pennetta in my first pick from the WTA Tour Finals this week.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: Marin Cilic had one slight blip on his way through to the Final in Moscow for the second season in a row, but he has looked very good in his last two wins in the event. This is easily the best player that he will have faced this week when he takes on Roberto Bautista Agut who has eased his way through the draw without dropping a set.
This is the second season in a row Cilic and Bautista Agut will be playing in the Final in Moscow and it is likely to be another close match as it was last season. On that occasion it was Cilic who won the big points to win the title in two sets and I expect this to be another match that will decided by a couple of points here and there.
Cilic's serve might prove to be a difference maker as it can help him get out of those difficult moments with relative comfort compared with Bautista Agut. That won't be the same for the Spaniard who will have to win prolonged rallies to come through his service games which can become more of an issue in those pressurised situations.
That played a part in the Bautista Agut's 64, 64 loss to Cilic last season in the Final in Moscow and I think he can retain his title with a similar kind of win.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Jack Sock: When Tomas Berdych and Jack Sock met in Shanghai earlier in the month, it was a very close match that was decided by a couple of points here and there in favour of Berdych. Getting a look at what he is going to face in Stockholm might work in Berdych's favour this week as will the fact that he has come through a number of matches before facing Sock.
This should be a good match considering both players have had some impressive wins this week, and I think the serve is going to be a key weapon for both Berdych and Sock.
Winning a title for the first time is difficult, but Sock has gotten that monkey off his back when winning in Houston so I expect the American to be ready. However, I am not always convinced with his fitness levels and I think Berdych does have the edge in the match in terms of the battle off the ground.
Sock has a lot of confidence though and can make it difficult for Berdych as he did in Shanghai when he took a set off Berdych. However, I think Berdych having seen what Sock can bring to the table will be a little more solid at key moments to win the title in Stockholm with a 76, 64 win.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Steve Johnson: It has been a very good week for Steve Johnson having rode his luck a little bit to get to the Final in Vienna. Now he faces a motivated David Ferrer who is looking to add the points that will put him on the brink of reaching the World Tour Finals without the need to put too much stress on the final two weeks of the season.
David Ferrer is definitely a player in form having also won the title in Kuala Lumper recently and also adding a Semi Final in Beijing to recent successes.
As well as Johnson has played this week, he hasn't been in that same kind of form and I think the American will do well to make this a competitive match. He has a decent serve, but is always likely to throw in at least one sloppy service game per set and is also facing a player that will get plenty of balls back into play and extract the errors that will be expected to follow.
It will come down to whether Ferrer can take the chances that come his way in this one and once he gets in front he can perhaps wear down Johnson mentally in the Final. After some battling games, I like Ferrer winning the title behind a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Flavia Pennetta + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-7, - 3.66 Units (26 Units Staked, - 14.08% Yield)
Thursday, 22 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 22nd)
I finally had a retirement go my way when Simone Bolelli pulled out his match against Lucas Pouille despite being a couple of games from defeat.
That makes up for Pablo Cuevas being given a pass through to the Second Round after winning the first set 61 before his opponent was unable to continue so there is that.
I had to remind myself of my blacklist on Wednesday as Victor Troicki was moved onto that list of players and I think he'll do well to get off it any time soon. Of course the season is coming to an end, but there are some players that I am simply not comfortable backing any more and Troicki certainly is amongst those.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Denis Istomin: Retaining his title in Moscow is going to be a challenge for Marin Cilic who has a lot of points to make up in the 'Race for London'. It would take some strange set of results from the players ahead of him to allow Cilic to get into the World Tour Finals, but he will still look for a strong end to the season to set up the 2016 season.
He will have to take on a form player in Denis Istomin who won the Challenger in Tashkent last week and was also a comfortable winner in the First Round in Moscow. Istomin will be confident with the title in the bag, but he played quite a lot of tennis last week with a number of three set wins needed and I do wonder if fatigue will play a factor in this one.
The slower conditions means Istomin might have to fight through more rallies to see off Cilic and that is when that fatigue begins to play a part more and more. Marin Cilic has the edge when it comes to the serve and he has been too good for the players he has been expected to beat in recent weeks.
There are still some inconsistencies in his performances having seen 2015 hurt by injuries, but Cilic has won five of his six previous matches against Istomin. These two players haven't met this season, but I think Cilic holds the edge in this match and can work through for a 63, 64 win.
Mikhail Kukushkin - 2.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: After knocking off the big hope of Russian tennis in the First Round, Mikhail Kukushkin will be hoping to see off another in Andrey Kuznetsov in the Second Round. Kukushkin was born in Russia, but represents Kazakhstan so the fans might be a little more keen on supporting Kuznetsov in this Second Round match.
I don't want to underestimate Kuznetsov at all as he has put together some successful weeks on the Tour and has played much more tennis than Kukushkin who hasn't been in action since Kuala Lumper earlier this month.
Kuznetsov has a decent serve and he can bring together some really good tennis to the court, but the same can be said for Kukushkin. Both players will likely have their moments in this one as they get hot and cool off with their shot-making, but it could be a great match to watch if both are putting together their best tennis at the same time.
I just feel Kukushkin can sustain a higher level than Kuznetsov for a longer period of time and that should give him the edge and help him through to the Quarter Finals. The first set might need a tie-breaker to separate them before Kukushkin pulls clear in a 76, 64 win.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: This has already been the most memorable week for Anatasija Sevastova on the WTA Tour in the 2015 season. The Latvian battled through the Qualifiers in Moscow before winning two Rounds in the main draw and now takes on Svetlana Kuznetsova who will have the crowd behind her.
It has been a surprising run from Sevastova considering her successes have come in the lower ITF tournaments on the hard courts, but she is a decent clay court player. The slower conditions in Moscow might favour her in that regard, but she now has to hold off Kuznetsova who has been in fine form through her first two matches.
Kuznetsova has dropped just nine games in her first two matches here and she would love to add the title in Moscow to the others she has won in her career. I think Kuznetsova is the favourite to do that now as she has reached the Quarter Final in fine form and looks the best player left in the tournament, but that means seeing off Sevastova who is off a win over Karolina Pliskova.
All of the tennis that Sevastova has had to play to get to this stage has to be a concern and she hasn't really performed at this level effectively prior to this week. After a tight first set I am expecting Kuznetsova to show her higher Ranking dominance and come through 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Mikhail Kukushkin - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-2, + 1.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
That makes up for Pablo Cuevas being given a pass through to the Second Round after winning the first set 61 before his opponent was unable to continue so there is that.
I had to remind myself of my blacklist on Wednesday as Victor Troicki was moved onto that list of players and I think he'll do well to get off it any time soon. Of course the season is coming to an end, but there are some players that I am simply not comfortable backing any more and Troicki certainly is amongst those.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Denis Istomin: Retaining his title in Moscow is going to be a challenge for Marin Cilic who has a lot of points to make up in the 'Race for London'. It would take some strange set of results from the players ahead of him to allow Cilic to get into the World Tour Finals, but he will still look for a strong end to the season to set up the 2016 season.
He will have to take on a form player in Denis Istomin who won the Challenger in Tashkent last week and was also a comfortable winner in the First Round in Moscow. Istomin will be confident with the title in the bag, but he played quite a lot of tennis last week with a number of three set wins needed and I do wonder if fatigue will play a factor in this one.
The slower conditions means Istomin might have to fight through more rallies to see off Cilic and that is when that fatigue begins to play a part more and more. Marin Cilic has the edge when it comes to the serve and he has been too good for the players he has been expected to beat in recent weeks.
There are still some inconsistencies in his performances having seen 2015 hurt by injuries, but Cilic has won five of his six previous matches against Istomin. These two players haven't met this season, but I think Cilic holds the edge in this match and can work through for a 63, 64 win.
Mikhail Kukushkin - 2.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: After knocking off the big hope of Russian tennis in the First Round, Mikhail Kukushkin will be hoping to see off another in Andrey Kuznetsov in the Second Round. Kukushkin was born in Russia, but represents Kazakhstan so the fans might be a little more keen on supporting Kuznetsov in this Second Round match.
I don't want to underestimate Kuznetsov at all as he has put together some successful weeks on the Tour and has played much more tennis than Kukushkin who hasn't been in action since Kuala Lumper earlier this month.
Kuznetsov has a decent serve and he can bring together some really good tennis to the court, but the same can be said for Kukushkin. Both players will likely have their moments in this one as they get hot and cool off with their shot-making, but it could be a great match to watch if both are putting together their best tennis at the same time.
I just feel Kukushkin can sustain a higher level than Kuznetsov for a longer period of time and that should give him the edge and help him through to the Quarter Finals. The first set might need a tie-breaker to separate them before Kukushkin pulls clear in a 76, 64 win.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: This has already been the most memorable week for Anatasija Sevastova on the WTA Tour in the 2015 season. The Latvian battled through the Qualifiers in Moscow before winning two Rounds in the main draw and now takes on Svetlana Kuznetsova who will have the crowd behind her.
It has been a surprising run from Sevastova considering her successes have come in the lower ITF tournaments on the hard courts, but she is a decent clay court player. The slower conditions in Moscow might favour her in that regard, but she now has to hold off Kuznetsova who has been in fine form through her first two matches.
Kuznetsova has dropped just nine games in her first two matches here and she would love to add the title in Moscow to the others she has won in her career. I think Kuznetsova is the favourite to do that now as she has reached the Quarter Final in fine form and looks the best player left in the tournament, but that means seeing off Sevastova who is off a win over Karolina Pliskova.
All of the tennis that Sevastova has had to play to get to this stage has to be a concern and she hasn't really performed at this level effectively prior to this week. After a tight first set I am expecting Kuznetsova to show her higher Ranking dominance and come through 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Mikhail Kukushkin - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-2, + 1.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Wednesday, 21 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 21st)
The final three places in the WTA Tour Finals will be decided this week and that means the contenders for those places are desperate for one more big run in the tournaments in Luxembourg and Moscow to sow those places up.
The WTA Tour Finals are played in Singapore from Sunday so the remaining contenders can pick up some momentum going into the final tournament of the 2015 season.
The ATP World Tour Finals look a little more settled with the final eight in a strong position to wrap up their spots even prior to the final Masters of the season in Paris in a couple of weeks time. David Ferrer is in eighth place, but he came from a set down to win his match in Vienna which could be a vital victory for him as he looks to make sure he finishes above Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who certainly has plenty of momentum behind him from the last month.
Tsonga will be in action on Wednesday as he tries to back up a big week in Shanghai as the tennis tournaments move forward this week.
Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: It has been a very good season for Ivo Karlovic who is back in the top twenty of the World Rankings at 36 years old which he has to be given credit for. The serve continues to be a huge weapon for Karlovic who would love to underline his 2015 season with a couple of strong showings beginning in Vienna.
The Second Round match with Sergiy Stakhovsky is a difficult looking one with the latter capable of playing some very high class tennis. However, there are a lot of drops from that level from Stakhovsky too although he does have a win under his belt in Vienna which may give him an edge in terms of knowing what conditions to expect.
That shouldn't bother Karlovic with his first serve effective on most hard courts and he has also won the last three matches against Stakhovsky having initially lost the first two. He might not be the best returner on the Tour, but Karlovic will know that Stakhovsky is likely to attack the net and is not always the cleanest volleyer when he gets there.
I have to believe that is a big reason why Karlovic is able to break the Stakhovsky serve as frequently as he has in the last three matches against him. Karlovic is also likely to try and take the net away from Stakhovsky by employing the slice and following that in and I think his serve will help him through any pressure moments better than Stakhovsky's will for him.
After a couple of long sets, I am looking for Karlovic to win this one 76, 64.
Simone Bolelli - 3.5 games v Lucas Pouille: At 21 years old, Lucas Pouille still has some learning to do if he is to become a top professional on the Tour, but his World Ranking of Number 70 isn't a bad return out of 2015. Of course 2016 is all about pushing on, but this season might be over for Pouille from a mental standpoint.
A long season can take its toll on a young player at this time of the season and we saw Nick Kyrgios cut his 2014 season short with that in mind. Pouille hasn't done the same, but he has lost four matches in a row and has failed to win a set in any of those matches and also not won more than four games in any of the eight sets competed in.
The slower hard courts in Moscow make work to the favour of Simone Bolelli too although the Italian is capable on the faster surfaces too. This is already Bolelli's best season on the main Tour by a considerable distance and he has had a lot more wins than Pouille in recent weeks which should boost his confidence for this First Round match.
Bolelli has a decent serve when he is on his game and I think he is going to take down a player he has beaten three times in the last twelve months including twice this season. With his ability to play the long rallies on the clay courts, the slower conditions won't bother Bolelli here either and I think he breaks down Pouille 76, 63 over two sets.
Victor Troicki - 1.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: Both of these players have looked like they are playing out the string in this 2015 season and both Victor Troicki and Teymuraz Gabashvili can produce some really good quality tennis as well as some complete dross in the same match.
At least Troicki can say he has had a couple of wins here and there recently compared with Gabashvili, although the latter is playing at home and has a win under his belt here.
As I have said, both can go through some real fluctuations within the same match and I would not be surprised if both were to win a set in this one. However Troicki could hold the mental edge not just because of his recent form compared with Gabashvili, but has also won all four matches against Gabashvili in previous matches.
Those matches are at least four years old though so I am not sure they are relevant now, but Gabashvili hasn't looked like a player that has had too much left in tank in the last couple of weeks. I am not completely sold on Troicki's mentality having lost a couple of Grand Slam matches from 2-0 up in sets this season, but I think he comes through in three sets and has enough to cover this number.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 5.5 games v Klara Koukalova: Svetlana Kuznetsova has more ups and downs in her performances these days than she did when she won two Grand Slam titles, but I still think she is too good at home against Klara Koukalova.
All three previous matches have gone in favour of Kuznetsova although the last of those came here in Moscow last season and was cut short when Koukalova retired having lost the first set.
There has been a little more confidence coming out of recent Koukalova performances having won some more matches, albeit at a lower level than Kuznetsova would be used to. Coming through three Qualifier matches will have helped her mentally for this challenge of facing Kuznetsova, but I still believe the latter has too much in the tank for her.
The serve is not as effective as it once was, but I think Kuznetsova can protect that shot for just long enough to send the pressure on Koukalova. The latter has really struggled to match the top players for most of the season and Kuznetsova still qualifies for that criteria as a top 32 player in the World Rankings.
After a battle through the first set, I like Kuznetsova winning this one 75, 62.
MY PICKS: Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simone Bolelli - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victor Troicki - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.54 Units (4 Units Staked, - 13.5% Yield)
The WTA Tour Finals are played in Singapore from Sunday so the remaining contenders can pick up some momentum going into the final tournament of the 2015 season.
The ATP World Tour Finals look a little more settled with the final eight in a strong position to wrap up their spots even prior to the final Masters of the season in Paris in a couple of weeks time. David Ferrer is in eighth place, but he came from a set down to win his match in Vienna which could be a vital victory for him as he looks to make sure he finishes above Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who certainly has plenty of momentum behind him from the last month.
Tsonga will be in action on Wednesday as he tries to back up a big week in Shanghai as the tennis tournaments move forward this week.
Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: It has been a very good season for Ivo Karlovic who is back in the top twenty of the World Rankings at 36 years old which he has to be given credit for. The serve continues to be a huge weapon for Karlovic who would love to underline his 2015 season with a couple of strong showings beginning in Vienna.
The Second Round match with Sergiy Stakhovsky is a difficult looking one with the latter capable of playing some very high class tennis. However, there are a lot of drops from that level from Stakhovsky too although he does have a win under his belt in Vienna which may give him an edge in terms of knowing what conditions to expect.
That shouldn't bother Karlovic with his first serve effective on most hard courts and he has also won the last three matches against Stakhovsky having initially lost the first two. He might not be the best returner on the Tour, but Karlovic will know that Stakhovsky is likely to attack the net and is not always the cleanest volleyer when he gets there.
I have to believe that is a big reason why Karlovic is able to break the Stakhovsky serve as frequently as he has in the last three matches against him. Karlovic is also likely to try and take the net away from Stakhovsky by employing the slice and following that in and I think his serve will help him through any pressure moments better than Stakhovsky's will for him.
After a couple of long sets, I am looking for Karlovic to win this one 76, 64.
Simone Bolelli - 3.5 games v Lucas Pouille: At 21 years old, Lucas Pouille still has some learning to do if he is to become a top professional on the Tour, but his World Ranking of Number 70 isn't a bad return out of 2015. Of course 2016 is all about pushing on, but this season might be over for Pouille from a mental standpoint.
A long season can take its toll on a young player at this time of the season and we saw Nick Kyrgios cut his 2014 season short with that in mind. Pouille hasn't done the same, but he has lost four matches in a row and has failed to win a set in any of those matches and also not won more than four games in any of the eight sets competed in.
The slower hard courts in Moscow make work to the favour of Simone Bolelli too although the Italian is capable on the faster surfaces too. This is already Bolelli's best season on the main Tour by a considerable distance and he has had a lot more wins than Pouille in recent weeks which should boost his confidence for this First Round match.
Bolelli has a decent serve when he is on his game and I think he is going to take down a player he has beaten three times in the last twelve months including twice this season. With his ability to play the long rallies on the clay courts, the slower conditions won't bother Bolelli here either and I think he breaks down Pouille 76, 63 over two sets.
Victor Troicki - 1.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: Both of these players have looked like they are playing out the string in this 2015 season and both Victor Troicki and Teymuraz Gabashvili can produce some really good quality tennis as well as some complete dross in the same match.
At least Troicki can say he has had a couple of wins here and there recently compared with Gabashvili, although the latter is playing at home and has a win under his belt here.
As I have said, both can go through some real fluctuations within the same match and I would not be surprised if both were to win a set in this one. However Troicki could hold the mental edge not just because of his recent form compared with Gabashvili, but has also won all four matches against Gabashvili in previous matches.
Those matches are at least four years old though so I am not sure they are relevant now, but Gabashvili hasn't looked like a player that has had too much left in tank in the last couple of weeks. I am not completely sold on Troicki's mentality having lost a couple of Grand Slam matches from 2-0 up in sets this season, but I think he comes through in three sets and has enough to cover this number.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 5.5 games v Klara Koukalova: Svetlana Kuznetsova has more ups and downs in her performances these days than she did when she won two Grand Slam titles, but I still think she is too good at home against Klara Koukalova.
All three previous matches have gone in favour of Kuznetsova although the last of those came here in Moscow last season and was cut short when Koukalova retired having lost the first set.
There has been a little more confidence coming out of recent Koukalova performances having won some more matches, albeit at a lower level than Kuznetsova would be used to. Coming through three Qualifier matches will have helped her mentally for this challenge of facing Kuznetsova, but I still believe the latter has too much in the tank for her.
The serve is not as effective as it once was, but I think Kuznetsova can protect that shot for just long enough to send the pressure on Koukalova. The latter has really struggled to match the top players for most of the season and Kuznetsova still qualifies for that criteria as a top 32 player in the World Rankings.
After a battle through the first set, I like Kuznetsova winning this one 75, 62.
MY PICKS: Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simone Bolelli - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victor Troicki - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.54 Units (4 Units Staked, - 13.5% Yield)
Tuesday, 20 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 20th)
A new week brings in a new tournament as the final WTA events of the season before the WTA Finals are played this week. The ATP events have a few players playing this week who are chasing the World Tour Finals spots remaining after Rafael Nadal and Tomas Berdych set the top six.
I am still of the belief that Andy Murray pulls out of the event in London, despite being at home, to focus on the Davis Cup Final and that means Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's run in Shanghai could be vital for him to return to the World Tour Finals. That might be the most interesting aspect left of the chase for Tour Finals, and it does look like the ninth place in the Rankings is going to be the closest battle over the last month of the season.
Pablo Cuevas - 5.5 games v Pere Riba: I am going to give Pere Riba credit for coming through the Qualifiers here considering he doesn't spend a lot of time on the hard courts. However, the speed of the courts in Moscow is not supposed to be too taxing so it might feel more like a clay court for the Spaniard and might be a reason that Riba has been able to play so well in the Qualifiers.
It won't matter too much in this First Round match against Pablo Cuevas who at least follows the Tour around and has plenty of recent hard court experience. That and the fact that Cuevas has won his four previous matches against Riba without dropping a set although the last of those was four years ago.
Cuevas has been in decent form of late with wins over the likes of Tomas Berdych and Ivo Karlovic on the hard courts and I do think he will be more comfortable despite Riba having an edge on the conditions.
This might be like a clay court match between these players on the slower surface, but it is still a hard court match and I think Cuevas' movement helps him move through with a 63, 63 win.
Albert Ramos Vinolas + 5.5 games v David Ferrer: This is an important week for David Ferrer as he looks to add the points to see off Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the race for a place in the World Tour Finals. He should have too much in the locker for Albert Ramos Vinolas, but I can't help feeling his compatriot is getting too many games in this one.
The week in Shanghai will be one that Albert Ramos Vinolas will be able to tell his grandkids about one day as he beat the great Roger Federer in three sets. It was a stunning result for Ramos Vinolas who really held his nerves in the final set, but he couldn't do the same in the decider against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the next Round.
He will need to serve well to keep Ferrer at bay in this one, although his compatriot is a very good returner and he has won all four previous matches against Ramos Vinolas. Three of those wins have come very easily, but Ferrer has had to battle much harder to win his matches since returning from his long-term lay off.
Ferrer won the title in Kuala Lumper but didn't cover this number of games once and he has only won by a wider margin in one of his last nine best of three set matches. I do worry that Ramos Vinolas will struggle to back up his week in Shanghai on the hard courts this week, but one key is he is under no pressure compared with Ferrer and I will look for him to keep this close enough to cover.
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Injuries have hurt Dominika Cibulkova's 2015 season but at least she looks like she is getting back to form and can make another huge effort for the 2016 season. Compare that to Carla Suarez Navarro who has been out of form since the French Open and who had lost eight matches in a row before getting things going again recently.
Suarez Navarro had back to back wins for the first time since June when playing in Beijing earlier this month, but this is a difficult test for her as she has lost all three previous matches to Dominika Cibulkova. That includes in Tokyo a few weeks ago and Suarez Navarro is yet to even win a set against her.
You can see why that might be the case because I think Cibulkova gets a little more out of her serve and has the movement to match the Spaniard. I also believe Cibulkova gets a little more power out of her groundstrokes and it all points to her continuing her strong run against Suarez Navarro.
A solid win over Elena Vesnina in the First Round will have given Cibulkova the edge in getting a feel for the conditions although the slower courts in Moscow will appeal to Suarez Navarro. I don't think it will matter too much and will be expecting Cibulkova to come through this one 64, 64 to match her result from Tokyo.
MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Albert Ramos Vinolas + 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Final: 10-10, - 3.74 Units (40 Units Staked, - 9.35% Yield)
Season 2015: - 5.01 Units (1692 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
I am still of the belief that Andy Murray pulls out of the event in London, despite being at home, to focus on the Davis Cup Final and that means Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's run in Shanghai could be vital for him to return to the World Tour Finals. That might be the most interesting aspect left of the chase for Tour Finals, and it does look like the ninth place in the Rankings is going to be the closest battle over the last month of the season.
Pablo Cuevas - 5.5 games v Pere Riba: I am going to give Pere Riba credit for coming through the Qualifiers here considering he doesn't spend a lot of time on the hard courts. However, the speed of the courts in Moscow is not supposed to be too taxing so it might feel more like a clay court for the Spaniard and might be a reason that Riba has been able to play so well in the Qualifiers.
It won't matter too much in this First Round match against Pablo Cuevas who at least follows the Tour around and has plenty of recent hard court experience. That and the fact that Cuevas has won his four previous matches against Riba without dropping a set although the last of those was four years ago.
Cuevas has been in decent form of late with wins over the likes of Tomas Berdych and Ivo Karlovic on the hard courts and I do think he will be more comfortable despite Riba having an edge on the conditions.
This might be like a clay court match between these players on the slower surface, but it is still a hard court match and I think Cuevas' movement helps him move through with a 63, 63 win.
Albert Ramos Vinolas + 5.5 games v David Ferrer: This is an important week for David Ferrer as he looks to add the points to see off Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the race for a place in the World Tour Finals. He should have too much in the locker for Albert Ramos Vinolas, but I can't help feeling his compatriot is getting too many games in this one.
The week in Shanghai will be one that Albert Ramos Vinolas will be able to tell his grandkids about one day as he beat the great Roger Federer in three sets. It was a stunning result for Ramos Vinolas who really held his nerves in the final set, but he couldn't do the same in the decider against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the next Round.
He will need to serve well to keep Ferrer at bay in this one, although his compatriot is a very good returner and he has won all four previous matches against Ramos Vinolas. Three of those wins have come very easily, but Ferrer has had to battle much harder to win his matches since returning from his long-term lay off.
Ferrer won the title in Kuala Lumper but didn't cover this number of games once and he has only won by a wider margin in one of his last nine best of three set matches. I do worry that Ramos Vinolas will struggle to back up his week in Shanghai on the hard courts this week, but one key is he is under no pressure compared with Ferrer and I will look for him to keep this close enough to cover.
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Injuries have hurt Dominika Cibulkova's 2015 season but at least she looks like she is getting back to form and can make another huge effort for the 2016 season. Compare that to Carla Suarez Navarro who has been out of form since the French Open and who had lost eight matches in a row before getting things going again recently.
Suarez Navarro had back to back wins for the first time since June when playing in Beijing earlier this month, but this is a difficult test for her as she has lost all three previous matches to Dominika Cibulkova. That includes in Tokyo a few weeks ago and Suarez Navarro is yet to even win a set against her.
You can see why that might be the case because I think Cibulkova gets a little more out of her serve and has the movement to match the Spaniard. I also believe Cibulkova gets a little more power out of her groundstrokes and it all points to her continuing her strong run against Suarez Navarro.
A solid win over Elena Vesnina in the First Round will have given Cibulkova the edge in getting a feel for the conditions although the slower courts in Moscow will appeal to Suarez Navarro. I don't think it will matter too much and will be expecting Cibulkova to come through this one 64, 64 to match her result from Tokyo.
MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Albert Ramos Vinolas + 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Final: 10-10, - 3.74 Units (40 Units Staked, - 9.35% Yield)
Season 2015: - 5.01 Units (1692 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)