Tennis Picks 2016 (October 19th)

It is the middle of the week for the tournaments that have been set for the week and that means there are plenty of matches scheduled for the day.

Yesterday the picks went a disappointing 1-1, but I am looking for the Wednesday matches to really get this week going.


John Isner + 2.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: There should be plenty of big serving on display in this match between John Isner and Juan Martin Del Potro but I am a little surprised the latter is such a strong favourite. He did win the first four matches played between them, but it is John Isner who has managed to battle through in the last two matches.

There hasn't been too many sightings of Isner on the Tour since the US Open and his sole match since then was a one sided loss to Alexander Zverev. 2016 has perhaps not been as productive a season as Isner would have liked, but I do wonder if his opponent Del Potro has much left in the tank after playing as many matches as he has on his return from injury.

He looked a little tired in his defeat in Shanghai last week, but Del Potro will at least know he won't be involved in long rallies in this one that might sap energy. Instead he has to show his mental strength in a match where John Isner is going to be tough to break even if his serving has been below par in the last six weeks.

Tie-breakers look to be the order of the day with Isner and Del Potro in the match and I do think the American might have the mental edge having won the last two times these players have met on the Tour. I am a little bothered that Isner has barely played any tennis since early September, but Del Potro might already be looking towards 2017 and being able to recover both physically and mentally from a tough 2016. I'll take the games with Isner in this one and look for him to keep it competitive if not win outright.


Carla Suarez Navarro - 2.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: With Serena Williams pulling out of the WTA Finals and Johanna Konta injured and not playing this week, there might be room for Carla Suarez Navarro to earn a place in Singapore next week. The task is simple for Suarez Navarro this week and that is she needs to win the tournament in Moscow which will be good enough to move above Konta in the Number 8 spot.

That puts some pressure on the Spaniard and it will be far from easy to win a tournament which is loaded with plenty of talent. Straight away Suarez Navarro will play against Daria Gavrilova who has had her best year on the Tour and will be looking to kick on in 2017 which opens up with plenty of events in Australia, Gavrilova's new home.

There is plenty to like about Gavrilova's game and she has the power to give Suarez Navarro something to think about, especially when it comes to returning what is a limited second serve. Even the first serve is not particularly intimidating and I do think Gavrilova will have her chances to break serve.

However I think Gavrilova will also be under pressure from Suarez Navarro who has the consistency to break her down when the rallies develop. While there will be times Gavrilova will hit through the court and penetrate the Suarez Navarro defences, I do think she can be worn down mentally and that can see the Spaniard prevail 64, 46, 63.


Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: It was a big week for Elina Svitolina who reached the Semi Final in Beijing as she looks to end 2016 with another strong showing. She was in fine form in Beijing but Svitolina is still to show the consistency that can see her make the business end of tournaments on a regular basis and prove she more than belongs inside the top 20 of the World Rankings.

The match with Yulia Putintseva is going to be a difficult one for Svitolina because she will be asked to make plenty of balls from the feisty player she is facing. That can see her struggle off the ground at times but I think Svitolina has the edge when it comes to the serve and that can be a big difference maker.

Instead of having to rely on winning rally after rally, Svitolina should have a chance to play plenty of first strike tennis behind her first serve, while she will also have the time to attack the Putintseva serve. I think that has played a big part in Svitolina winning the last three matches against Putintseva after initially losing the first two matches and this should be the key to having success in this match.

I do have to say that there are times when Svitolina can lose focus mentally, but she looked very good in Beijing and I look for her to keep the momentum going in a 64, 64 win.


Kristina Mladenovic v Timea Babos: I am a little surprised that Timea Babos has been set as the favourite in this Second Round match in Moscow. She did produce a tough First Round win, but Babos has not been in the best form of late and it would be easy for her to look ahead at next week when she will be playing in the WTA Finals in the Doubles event.

The same could be said of Kristina Mladenovic who is likely to be partnering Caroline Garcia as the top Seed in the Doubles event at the WTA Finals. However the Frenchwoman has shown more form than Babos by reaching the Final at the tournament in Hong Kong last week although the obvious concern is tiredness setting in during a second long week on the Tour.

Mladenovic beat an overmatched opponent in the First Round but Babos is a much more difficult test for her. On the other hand, Mladenovic will have a real mental edge having won four of the five previous matches between these players although only one of those matches was played this season and that came on the clay courts at Roland Garros where Mladenovic would have received massive support.

Both players have decent serves, but can be guilty of silly errors when trying to back that up. I am anticipating quite a close contest, but I would have had Mladenovic as the slight favourite so I will back the underdog in this one to come through and beat Babos in three sets for a place in another Quarter Final.


Jelena Jankovic + 2.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: I have very little doubt that Jelena Jankovic is on the downward slope of her career and that has been highlighted by the fact she is likely to have her fewest wins on the Tour since 2003. The movement around the court is not as good as it used to be, but Jankovic has found some form over the last six weeks since the US Open and I think she can pose some problems for home favourite Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

The season is coming to an end for Pavlyuchenkova and Jankovic, but the Russian should have plenty of motivation playing in Moscow where she has won the tournament in 2014 and then finished Runner Up in defence of that title in 2015.

I think that is part of the reason why she is considered such a strong favourite in this match because Pavlyuchenkova has not produced too many wins since the US Open. She did play well in Linz last week before coming up short in the Quarter Final and Pavlyuchenkova has the superior serve in this match that can provide some cheap points and keep Jankovic under pressure.

In the past it has been the movement of Jankovic and forcing Pavlyuchenkova to hit extra balls that has kept the former World Number 1 competitive in matches. While I do think she has lost that half a step around the court, the recent form suggests Jankovic can trouble Pavlyuchenkova again and perhaps make these games count in a tight match.

Since the US Open Jankovic has been much more competitive and I think she can steal a set which will make it difficult for Pavlyuchenkova to cover this number.


Kiki Bertens - 3.5 games v Anna Schmiedlova: Neither Kiki Bertens or Anna Schmiedlova will be pointing to any great form in the closing stages of 2016 as they battle each other for the right to reach the Quarter Final in Luxembourg. However this has been a season that Bertens will look back on much more fondly than Schmiedlova who has won just 5/27 matches on the main Tour a year after finishing 2015 with 37 match wins.

Unsurprisingly Schmiedlova has dropped outside the top 100 of the World Rankings and the mental block of all those losses has seen her lose other matches from very strong winning positions. The win over Yanina Wickmayer was impressive, but Schmiedlova will have to raise her game again if Bertens has recovered some of the lost form of recent weeks.

Bertens had lost seven matches in a row before beating Annika Beck in the First Round and she has been a little overrated behind a very strong clay court season when she surpassed most expectations. I don't think she has been fully healthy, which is a concern too, but she looked a little better in beating Beck in the First Round and the Dutchwoman will be Seeded going into the Australian Open in January.

Her record on the hard courts is a concern when backing her in this match, but I do think she is in a superior place mentally than Schmiedlova who probably wants to draw a line under the 2016 season. Bertens crushed her on the clay courts when they met earlier this season, but I anticipate this will be closer on the indoor hard courts, although ultimately I like Bertens to cover in a 75, 64 win after a few breaks of serve are shared out.

MY PICKS: John Isner + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.34 Units (4 Units Staked, - 8.5% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 18th)

This is the final week of the WTA Tour before the WTA Finals begin next week and that means there are still some players out there who are desperate to make it into the top eight.

More room has opened up after Serena Williams decided to withdraw from the tournament with an injury she wishes to recuperate in time for the start of the 2017 season. There are also questions about how healthy Garbine Muguruza and Johanna Konta will be going into the event in Singapore so there has to be a fear that the WTA Finals are not as strong as it should be this year.

There are plenty of ATP events being played this week too as the Race for London begins to heat up too, although the majority of the big names are taking a week to prepare for some ATP 500 events yet to come this season.


Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: I will say that I don't think I will ever truly trust Fabio Fognini when it comes to asking him to cover handicaps, especially when he is favoured to win the match. Too often Fognini can bring a really poor attitude to the court, but I do think this is a good spot to back the Italian against Ricardas Berankis.

There is no doubting the talent that Berankis has, but he has to work hard for everything he earns on the court and recent form has not been the best. A retirement saw Berankis end his last match early while he has not been playing at the level that Fognini has been and I think that can play a part in this match.

I can imagine plenty of long rallies between two players that don't have the biggest serves and I also think there will be breaks of serve for both players. It is the kind of match that you could see Fognini losing, but the form of Berankis doesn't scream out upset and I think ultimately the Italian will be too good in this one.

It might need three sets, but Fognini can win this one 57, 63, 64 to move through.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Mikael Ymer: The home crowd in Stockholm will get to see the Ymer brothers back to back on Tuesday as the big hopes of Swedish tennis play in this main tournament draw. It is a big test for Ymer in this one as he takes on veteran Fernando Verdasco without a lot of tennis behind him.

Ymer has spent the majority of this season on the sidelines and will be playing his first hard court event of 2016 when he comes into this match. That is a tough spot to be in especially when playing someone like Verdasco who has the power to push Ymer back and really pressurise him throughout in this match.

This is the kind of pace that Ymer won't have faced too often and I think Verdasco being a lefty is another challenge for the youngster to try and overcome. It feels like it could be a long day for Ymer even if Verdasco is far from at the level he reached during his peak years on the Tour.

It can be tough to really know what to expect from Verdasco who has not been in the best form. However I think he is going to be a little too strong and a little too savvy for Ymer and I can see Verdasco being able to put together a 64, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2015 (October 24th)

The WTA Finals Groups were drawn on Friday and that tournament begins on Sunday, but the focus before that will be to conclude the final tournaments of the season the WTA Tour.

Those events in Luxembourg and Moscow conclude in the next couple of days as do the three ATP tournaments in Moscow, Stockholm and Vienna where it looks like David Ferrer is going to be the player who takes advantage of others slipping up in a bid to reach the ATP World Tour Finals.

Next week Basel is the big tournament to try and take some more points and put them in the bank for those chasing a top eight spot for London, but it does look like it is going to be tough for anyone outside of the current top eight to make it. Only Andy Murray withdrawing from the event would make the next two weeks very exciting as it would open up the ninth spot for a place in the World Tour Finals and there are up to five players that potentially fit into that spot.

It looks like it will be a controversial decision when Murray decides what to do about the World Tour Finals, but I think I can see a situation where he perhaps begins the event and then pull out if he loses his first Group game. There is no doubt the Davis Cup Final looks the most important match that Andy Murray is going to be play in the remainder of the 2015 season and he has openly admitted he needs days to be ready to compete on a clay court.

Playing in the Group at least gives the fans what they want, although I am not sure his 'tanking' would be particularly good viewing if Murray is simply there to honour his commitments.

If it was me, I would probably give up the Tour Finals and make sure I have put in the time and effort I know it is going to take to transition onto the clay courts and I don't think I would play too much tennis between now and then. Maybe take in the Paris Masters as that prevents any competitive rustiness, but the Tour Finals would certainly be an event I would look to miss if I was Murray.


Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Marcos Baghdatis: The Semi Final in Stockholm I have focused on is Tomas Berdych facing Marcos Baghdatis and I do like the top ten player to come through in straight sets and ensure he covers this number.

It is unlikely that Berdych will ever pick up a Grand Slam title and that might make it seem his career has been an underachievement for the potential he showed. However, it isn't easy to be as consistent as he has been and I think he is playing well enough this week to see of Baghdatis' challenge.

It has been a very good week for Baghdatis up to this point, but it feels strange to say he is only three months older than Berdych considering the drop he has had in the Rankings in recent years. That is down to injury as much as a loss of consistency though and Baghdatis is still capable of these big weeks.

His talent has seen him hold the head to head advantage over Berdych, but things might have changed too much the other way in the intervening five years since they last played. Berdych should have a serve that can keep Baghdatis at bay and I always think the Cypriot doesn't get enough first serves in to really compete for long enough to win matches consistently.

Once Berdych gets a feel for the second serve, I like him to win this match 64, 64 and move into another Final this month.


David Ferrer - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: After an up and down 2014, it goes to show how solid David Ferrer's 2015 season has been that he is set to reach the World Tour Finals again despite missing a large portion of the season through injury.

Ferrer has been in some good form this week, but he runs into a tough Semi Final opponent in Gael Monfils who has battled through difficult moments. It is a very good run considering Monfils has just returned to the Tour from an injury from the US Open which kept him out of the Asian swing.

His athleticism gave Ferrer plenty of problems when they met the first three times, although it was the mental strength of coming through in best of five setters in Grand Slam and Davis Cup matches that impressed from Monfils.

Things might have changed though as Ferrer has crushed Monfils the last two times they have played and I think the Spaniard has enough motivation to go on and win this tournament. It might take three sets to win this one with the way Monfils has been playing but I like Ferrer to find his way to a 63, 46, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-7, - 5.26 Units Staked (24 Units Staked, - 21.92% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (October 23rd)

The WTA Tour Finals final eight was set on Thursday and that event will begin in Singapore on Sunday, although the official confirmation of the players that will take part will likely come in the next couple of days.

The race for the ATP World Tour Finals will continue on Friday, but Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was unable to back up his huge week at the Shanghai Masters. It does mean the likes of David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet and Kevin Anderson can take advantage of that slip and promote their own chances to earn a place in London although there is still a few tournaments left to play after this week to do that.


Kevin Anderson - 2.5 games v Steve Johnson: This is a big week for Kevin Anderson if he wants to make a move towards the World Tour Finals and he is favoured to win this Quarter Final against Steve Johnson.

Both players have had to battle through two matches to get into the Quarter Final, although it has to be said that neither would have expected to lose the matches they have played. The difference between the players might be that Kevin Anderson has been playing at a higher level more consistently than Steve Johnson who generally finds the very top players too much to overcome.

I can see both players having success with their serve in this one, but Johnson's can be a little more inconsistent and I think that is a big reason Anderson has won their last four matches. Anderson himself admits his serve is the biggest weapon he has and he has won all three matches against Johnson in 2015 and the majority of them have seen him come through and cover this number.

There will likely be a tie-breaker at some point in this match and I can see Anderson coming through that before being able to find a break of serve to ensure he moves into the Semi Final 76, 64.


Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Lukas Rosol: I was a little concerned with how much Gael Monfils would be able to raise his game this week having come through an injury before taking his place in the draw.

So far it has been pretty good for Monfils who has won four sets in a row to move into the Quarter Finals and I do wonder if he will ever fulfil the potential he clearly has. It has always been about entertaining the crowds for Monfils more than about winning, but he has made some coaching changes to perhaps balance that out a little more.

He is facing a dangerous opponent in Lukas Rosol who is capable of bringing some exceptional tennis to the court. Unfortunately there is a lot of average stuff thrown in too although Rosol will have some confidence having knocked off one Frenchman in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Second Round.

Backing up that kind of win will be difficult for Rosol who has lost his last two matches against Monfils whose athleticism forces Rosol to play too many balls. That extracts errors from the Rosol game and I think it might be something similar on Friday in this Quarter Final as Monfils takes the chances that come his way and moves through 75, 64.


Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: When Jeremy Chardy serves well, he can be a real handful for any player to face him, but facing a compatriot like Richard Gasquet also means overcoming mental issues. There is a hierarchy in tennis that can be difficult to ignore and Richard Gasquet has won his last two matches against Jeremy Chardy fairly comfortably.

They haven't played this season though and Chardy has played well during the course of the year although he has struggled in recent weeks. His week so far in Stockholm has been a solid one so far and Richard Gasquet could easily be a little undercooked having been offered a pass through to the Quarter Final when Steve Darcis retired.

It has been difficult for Gasquet since the US Open as he was just 2-2 before the tournament in Stockholm began, but he could easily challenge for a place at the World Tour Finals. With Jo-Wilfried Tsonga out, Gasquet is in line to take over 9th place in the Race for London and perhaps even start closing the gap to David Ferrer in the coming couple of weeks.

This is going to be a battle for Gasquet, but I think he has enough quality from the back of the court to see off Chardy in a close match. A couple of late breaks of serve might be enough in this one for Gasquet to come through 64, 64.


Jelena Jankovic - 5.5 games v Misaki Doi: She won the title in Hong Kong and Jelena Jankovic looks primed to end this 2015 season with perhaps another title to add to her collection. Jankovic was an impressive winner in Hong Kong and she has picked up from where she left off there in Luxembourg where her first two wins have come by a comfortable margin.

I think Jankovic will have too much quality for Misaki Doi who has performed well to come through two matches in Luxembourg which has also ended a run of five consecutive losses.

For the most part Doi can struggle against the very top players as her serve can be a weakness and finding herself having a hard time to hold that serve means mentally she is under pressure in a lot of her matches.

That is especially the case against someone like Jankovic who is a very capable returner and I think the Serb is able to come through this one by a fairly comfortable margin. The last time these players met saw Doi take three games, but I think she will have a couple more this time although still not enough to get within this number.

MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-4, - 1.08 Units (16 Units Staked, - 6.75% Yield)