There might be an Elite Trophy tournament being played in China next week, but for most fans this will be considered the end of the WTA season when the Final of the WTA Finals is played between Angelique Kerber and Dominika Cibulkova who have already played once before in the Groups.
I will never understand the reasoning behind the WTA season ending with the Elite Trophy rather than the WTA Finals, although it has been announced that it is going to be looked at and we could potentially see that change by the 2017 season.
Sunday will also see the tournaments in Vienna and Basel come to a close with the Finals of those events while the Paris Masters completes the Qualifiers ahead of that tournament beginning on Monday.
Saturday proved to be another strong day for the picks with the four made seeing one voided because of a withdrawal and the other three producing winners. That has completely turned around the horrific Wednesday when the picks went 1-6 and looked destined to see me end this week with a losing record, but now I am almost assured of a solid end to the week.
I want to underline it with three winners on Sunday to ensure a strong week as I have a pick from each of the three Finals that will be played.
Dominika Cibulkova + 4.5 games v Angelique Kerber: The World Number 1 is the deserved favourite to win the WTA Finals and I think there are a lot of factors pointing her way. Angelique Kerber has gotten stronger and stronger in each match played in Singapore since being pushed all the way by Dominika Cibulkova in her first match in the Group and a second win over the Slovakian would be enough to add this title to the Australian and US Open titles she won during the season.
I have a lot of respect for Cibulkova and I am surprised she is being given a game more in this Final than she was in the Group match against one another. Part of the reason has to be that Cibulkova has needed three sets to win her last two matches compared with Kerber who has barely lost games in that time, but I think Cibulkova has the kind of fight in her game to not allow herself to fall apart.
Cibulkova will very much know she is going to have a few weeks off from the Tour after this match so has every reason to leave it all out there and the Kerber serve has not been firing to the point that her opponent can't feel she won't get opportunities to break serve. Her own serve is a concern, especially if fatigue issues are in play, but I can see Cibulkova having some success in this one to make it a close match.
Almost nothing separated them when the played last week and Cibulkova can take heart from that performance. She will need to win a few big points to make sure she keeps this competitive, but I will back Cibulkova with a healthy amount of games being offered to her in this Final of the WTA Finals in Singapore.
Kei Nishikori - 1.5 games v Marin Cilic: Both of these players might feel they had a bit of an escape in their respective Semi Final matches to eventually get through to the Final in Basel. Kei Nishikori went match point down to Gilles Muller before turning things in his favour, while Marin Cilic also had to come from a set down to beat Mischa Zverev having come close to the brink of defeat in the second set.
It is Nishikori who has managed to get the better of Marin Cilic in their previous matches with a 7-4 lead, but one of those defeats did come in the Final of the US Open 2014. That is by far the biggest match these two have played against one another but Nishikori had won twice in a row since that match against Cilic before being forced to retire at Wimbledon back in July.
You can see why Nishikori would match up well with Cilic- while the power is clearly with the Croatian, Cilic's consistency can be hard to call upon and that is where Nishikori will continue to get lots of balls in play and pressure the second serves he sees. Cilic might hit a few more aces, but Nishikori won't let that bother him and I think something similar will occur in this Final.
The points mean more to Cilic who is chasing a place in London for the ATP World Tour Finals, but I think Nishikori will prove too strong on the day by dragging Cilic deep into a third set. It can lead to a 36, 63, 64 win for Nishikori as he wears down his opponent and I will back the Japanese player to lift the title in Basel on Sunday afternoon.
Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Two players who are familiar with each other on and off the court will contest the Final in Vienna as Andy Murray takes on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for the title. Both players have plenty of motivation to win here with Murray looking to close the gap on Novak Djokovic to the World Number 1 spot and Tsonga hoping to add vital points in a last ditch effort to make it to the World Tour Finals in London.
Murray was the recipient of a bye through to the Final when David Ferrer withdrew before the two players were to take to the court and that could be important. Especially so when you think Tsonga had to beat Ivo Karlovic in three sets where he expended a lot of emotional energy in recovering a second set break and then having to overcome his own serve being broken when ahead in the third set.
That emotional energy being sapped can really take something out of a player and I think it could work against Tsonga. I do have to respect that he has given Murray plenty of trouble in their past meetings with his big serve and the capability of playing some really special tennis which opens up break point opportunities.
However I am not sure the court is going to help his serve be as potent as it can be and Tsonga may have to work harder for his points which can be tough when you're not at the top of your game. The serve has really not been firing as it can with three breaks given up to Ivo Karlovic and Tsonga also having a few issues against Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Philipp Kohlschreiber.
Murray has shown he can be devastating against the biggest servers if they are not hitting their marks when he crushed John Isner here in the Quarter Final and I think the rest he has received the last couple of days plays out here. After a few issues on serve, Murray can eventually take control in a 64, 63 win and another title to add to his name.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 20-15, + 7.18 Units (70 Units Staked, + 10.26% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Vienna. Show all posts
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Sunday, 30 October 2016
Saturday, 29 October 2016
WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 29th)
The Semi Finals in Basel, Vienna and the WTA Finals take place on Saturday as the tournaments from this week have reached the business end of the events. The 2016 season is fast coming to a close and there is less than a month left now before we get to the off-season.
After a really poor Wednesday, the picks have turned around the last couple of days and that has put the week back into a positive position. With two days left of this week, I am looking to get a couple more wins on the board and really get the week ended in a strong manner before the Paris Masters gets going.
We also have the WTA Elite Trophy being played next week, which is strange timing to say the least, and the run to the ATP World Tour Finals will be the big headline maker in Paris.
Dominika Cibulkova v Svetlana Kuznetsova: I am not reading too much into Svetlana Kuznetsova's loss to Garbine Muguruza in her final Group match when her place had already been assured in the Semi Final. There had to be some form of not giving it her all as Kuznetsova looked to save energy for this Semi Final and I think it is more unfortunate that she is in the first Semi Final rather than the second.
Her match with Dominika Cibulkova looks a difficult one as the Slovakian looks to do what Agnieszka Radwanska did last season and that is lose her first two matches in Singapore but still go on and win the tournament. I do think Cibulkova looks very strong at this moment and can look to take advantage of any lingering fatigue that Kuznetsova is trying to avoid.
There is something different about Cibulkova compared with Karolina Pliskova and Agnieszka Radwanska who both served for the match against Kuznetsova already this week. Both lost, but Cibulkova has a little bit more weight behind her shots on both wings which will see her able to dictate points against Kuznetsova at times, while she can also fatigue her opponent further by extending the rallies behind her quality.
It is Cibulkova who has won the last five matches these players have played against one another which includes a three set win in Wuhan earlier in the month. There wasn't much between them on that day, but Kuznetsova is a lot more battered at this point and I don't think Cibulkova lets her off the hook like Radwanska and Pliskova did and I will back the 'Pocket Rocket' to earn her place in the Final.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: This is going to be the first time in the 2016 season (and the only time) that Angelique Kerber and Agnieszka Radwanska will play one another on the Tour. Surprisingly it is Radwanska who holds the 6-5 head to head advantage and won their most recent match in Beijing in October 2015, but Kerber is the new World Number 1 and has proved to be a markedly improved player in 2016.
That can be seen in comments about the performances in Singapore twelve months ago and has given Kerber the motivation to underline her fantastic 2016 season. There is a lot to admire about Kerber's game which has moved on from being very defensive, but also one that can quickly go on the offensive and make things happen.
It isn't always easy to do that against someone like Radwanska who is happy to stay out on court all day until the errors come. I do think that style is beginning to take its toll on her body and Radwanska perhaps fatigues more these days than she did in her prime and I can see that being a difference maker in this match. The Radwanska serve is very inconsistent too, although this looks like the kind of match that will feature plenty of break points.
Out of the two players I do trust Kerber to play the big moments better than Radwanska at this moment in their careers. Winning the big matches Kerber has should give her the confidence to make the big plays when necessary and although it might take some time to take complete control of this match, I do think Kerber can eventually come through with a 75, 64 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v David Ferrer: I couldn't be anything but impressed with the way that Andy Murray dealt with John Isner in the Quarter Final in Vienna and it was the kind of easy night he would have appreciated. That is down to some of the fatigue issues he might have having played a lot of tennis of late, but Murray is now a big favourite to go on and win the title here and put pressure on Novak Djokovic in the World Number 1 position.
Andy Murray will be very happy with the match up with David Ferrer who is definitely not performing at the same level as he was in his prime. This is not someone who is going to overpower Murray and Ferrer no longer is able to hold himself in rallies as long as he used to be able to against some of the better players on the Tour.
Unforced errors have become an issue for the Spaniard and a player like Murray will look to expose that, while Ferrer also had to dig down deep to win his Quarter Final match against Victor Troicki. That might have taken something from the Ferrer tank who has slipped down the World Rankings and who was beaten very easily by Murray when they played Shanghai.
Ferrer is still able to have some success against the Murray serve which can be a little erratic at times, but the problem has been winning points consistently on his own serve. Some of the rallies could be epic and really fun to watch, but I think Murray is able to get into a position to win more than he loses and I like the British player to take another step towards the World Number 1 spot with a 64, 62 win.
Mischa Zverev + 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: I wanted to add this pick yesterday but the markets had not been released and I was also waiting to see if Mischa Zverev was going to be given enough games to be attractive to back. I would say this is enough games for me.
Marin Cilic has played really well this week and looks like a player rounding into form to end 2016 with some strong results. He has some big matches left to play and is playing well enough to win this match with some comfort. However, I don't think Zverev is going to roll over for him despite all the tennis he has played having to come through the Qualifiers to earn his place in the main draw.
You have to respect the results that Zverev has produced with only one set dropped and that coming against Stan Wawrinka. There is no doubting the talent he does have with injuries being a bigger factor in his Ranking than performance and Zverev also pushed Novak Djokovic all the way in a loss to the World Number 1 in Shanghai.
Matches between Cilic and Zverev have been competitive for the most part and a good serving day from Zverev should make these games very appealing.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 17-15, + 1.92 Units (64 Units Staked, + 3% Yield)
After a really poor Wednesday, the picks have turned around the last couple of days and that has put the week back into a positive position. With two days left of this week, I am looking to get a couple more wins on the board and really get the week ended in a strong manner before the Paris Masters gets going.
We also have the WTA Elite Trophy being played next week, which is strange timing to say the least, and the run to the ATP World Tour Finals will be the big headline maker in Paris.
Dominika Cibulkova v Svetlana Kuznetsova: I am not reading too much into Svetlana Kuznetsova's loss to Garbine Muguruza in her final Group match when her place had already been assured in the Semi Final. There had to be some form of not giving it her all as Kuznetsova looked to save energy for this Semi Final and I think it is more unfortunate that she is in the first Semi Final rather than the second.
Her match with Dominika Cibulkova looks a difficult one as the Slovakian looks to do what Agnieszka Radwanska did last season and that is lose her first two matches in Singapore but still go on and win the tournament. I do think Cibulkova looks very strong at this moment and can look to take advantage of any lingering fatigue that Kuznetsova is trying to avoid.
There is something different about Cibulkova compared with Karolina Pliskova and Agnieszka Radwanska who both served for the match against Kuznetsova already this week. Both lost, but Cibulkova has a little bit more weight behind her shots on both wings which will see her able to dictate points against Kuznetsova at times, while she can also fatigue her opponent further by extending the rallies behind her quality.
It is Cibulkova who has won the last five matches these players have played against one another which includes a three set win in Wuhan earlier in the month. There wasn't much between them on that day, but Kuznetsova is a lot more battered at this point and I don't think Cibulkova lets her off the hook like Radwanska and Pliskova did and I will back the 'Pocket Rocket' to earn her place in the Final.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: This is going to be the first time in the 2016 season (and the only time) that Angelique Kerber and Agnieszka Radwanska will play one another on the Tour. Surprisingly it is Radwanska who holds the 6-5 head to head advantage and won their most recent match in Beijing in October 2015, but Kerber is the new World Number 1 and has proved to be a markedly improved player in 2016.
That can be seen in comments about the performances in Singapore twelve months ago and has given Kerber the motivation to underline her fantastic 2016 season. There is a lot to admire about Kerber's game which has moved on from being very defensive, but also one that can quickly go on the offensive and make things happen.
It isn't always easy to do that against someone like Radwanska who is happy to stay out on court all day until the errors come. I do think that style is beginning to take its toll on her body and Radwanska perhaps fatigues more these days than she did in her prime and I can see that being a difference maker in this match. The Radwanska serve is very inconsistent too, although this looks like the kind of match that will feature plenty of break points.
Out of the two players I do trust Kerber to play the big moments better than Radwanska at this moment in their careers. Winning the big matches Kerber has should give her the confidence to make the big plays when necessary and although it might take some time to take complete control of this match, I do think Kerber can eventually come through with a 75, 64 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v David Ferrer: I couldn't be anything but impressed with the way that Andy Murray dealt with John Isner in the Quarter Final in Vienna and it was the kind of easy night he would have appreciated. That is down to some of the fatigue issues he might have having played a lot of tennis of late, but Murray is now a big favourite to go on and win the title here and put pressure on Novak Djokovic in the World Number 1 position.
Andy Murray will be very happy with the match up with David Ferrer who is definitely not performing at the same level as he was in his prime. This is not someone who is going to overpower Murray and Ferrer no longer is able to hold himself in rallies as long as he used to be able to against some of the better players on the Tour.
Unforced errors have become an issue for the Spaniard and a player like Murray will look to expose that, while Ferrer also had to dig down deep to win his Quarter Final match against Victor Troicki. That might have taken something from the Ferrer tank who has slipped down the World Rankings and who was beaten very easily by Murray when they played Shanghai.
Ferrer is still able to have some success against the Murray serve which can be a little erratic at times, but the problem has been winning points consistently on his own serve. Some of the rallies could be epic and really fun to watch, but I think Murray is able to get into a position to win more than he loses and I like the British player to take another step towards the World Number 1 spot with a 64, 62 win.
Mischa Zverev + 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: I wanted to add this pick yesterday but the markets had not been released and I was also waiting to see if Mischa Zverev was going to be given enough games to be attractive to back. I would say this is enough games for me.
Marin Cilic has played really well this week and looks like a player rounding into form to end 2016 with some strong results. He has some big matches left to play and is playing well enough to win this match with some comfort. However, I don't think Zverev is going to roll over for him despite all the tennis he has played having to come through the Qualifiers to earn his place in the main draw.
You have to respect the results that Zverev has produced with only one set dropped and that coming against Stan Wawrinka. There is no doubting the talent he does have with injuries being a bigger factor in his Ranking than performance and Zverev also pushed Novak Djokovic all the way in a loss to the World Number 1 in Shanghai.
Matches between Cilic and Zverev have been competitive for the most part and a good serving day from Zverev should make these games very appealing.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 17-15, + 1.92 Units (64 Units Staked, + 3% Yield)
Thursday, 27 October 2016
WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 27th)
I cannot begin to say how frustrated and irritated I was with the way the tennis picks went on Wednesday.
Karolina Pliskova blew a set and a break lead to eventually go down against Svetlana Kuznetsova, while the Fabio Fognini pick just never got off the ground.
However it was the other four picks that fell apart that absolutely got under my skin... Garbine Muguruza was up a break in the second set but ended up losing 6/7 games to miss the cover by one game and that became an ugly theme of the day.
Feliciano Lopez decided he would throw in his double faults during this two tie-breakers with John Isner to effectively give up those to the big American. In fact I think he lost his first two service points in both tie-breakers to give up the match for all intents and purposes.
Things didn't improve with both Kei Nishikori and Robin Haase missing their own covers by single games. Nishikori had 15-40 on Paolo Lorenzi's opening two service games and couldn't break and missed all 6 break points he earned in set one to eventually win 76, 62 to miss his cover, while Haase broke the Juan Martin Del Potro serve three times in the second set and still couldn't at least get to a tie-breaker which is pathetic when you consider that.
I can pretty much say that is the way my 2016 season has gone with little luck at the very crux of matches far too often and that has meant I haven't been able to pick up the momentum I should have done. In all honesty even a little bit of luck at the big moments would have seen at least half of those losses come back as winners and keep the positive run going, but instead every single one looked to have landed on the wrong side because the players I've picked have lost those big points.
Frustration is putting it mildly.
The WTA Finals Red Group is going to be decided on Thursday and things have become fairly clear in the Group. Dominika Cibulkova has to win in straight sets and hope Angelique Kerber beats Madison Keys in straight sets to have a chance of getting through to the Semi Final.
That is the only way Cibulkova can get through, but a straight sets win for Simona Halep will put her through to the Semi Final regardless of what happens in the other match. A straight sets win for Keys over Kerber would put her through to the Semi Final and it does feel that both matches are going to have some importance attached unlike in the White Group where Garbine Muguruza has been knocked out and Svetlana Kuznetsova has already booked her place in the Semi Final.
Thursday will also bring Second Round action from the ATP events in Basel and Vienna as the Quarter Final line up is set for Friday.
Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: The first set is going to be critical to the outcome of this match and it might be difficult for Dominika Cibulkova to stay focused if she drops that and is ultimately out of the tournament. Now the Slovakian is one of the biggest fighters on the Tour and unlikely to give up in any match she plays, but it can be difficult to motivate when at the end of a long season in which she has surpassed expectations.
For Simona Halep taking at least a set in this one, even in a losing effort, will give her a chance of progressing through to the Semi Final but she will then be reliant on Angelique Kerber beating Madison Keys. However a straight sets win for Halep will put her through to the Semi Final regardless of the outcome of the final match in the Group.
The match up is a difficult one to weigh up because Halep looks to have the consistency, but I think the Cibulkova firepower and desire makes her hard to stop. Neither player has a big serve and it could easily come down to which of them perhaps takes a few more chances that pay off with the short ball, particularly on the second serve, which could prove to be the difference.
That is an area I think Halep can be stronger and I believe she is going to make the big plays at the big moments to push ahead in this tournament. It should be a couple of tight sets being competed by these two players but Halep can win this one 64, 64 for a place in the Semi Final.
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Madison Keys: Both of these players are going to know their exact situation in the Group heading out onto the court and that might play a part in how this match goes. I am not going to read too much into what I expect to happen in the first match of the day, but instead focus on how I think this match will go.
You can't ignore the fact that Angelique Kerber has won all five previous matches against Madison Keys and I think this is the kind of opponent that the American has to learn to deal with to take the next step in her career. Like Simona Halep, Kerber has the tools to negate the big Keys serve and force the younger player to try and beat her with consistency off the ground.
While Kerber can accept that Keys will be able to penetrate the defences with the power she has, the World Number 1 will also know she can force mistakes from the Keys game by getting as many balls back in play as possible. Going into the Keys backhand from the Kerber forehand should also be a productive play to open up the court for Kerber and having to play as many balls as Keys is likely going to have to can be mentally draining.
These players have met twice in 2016 and Kerber has won all four sets and I think she will have enough of an edge in the longer rallies to wear down Keys in this one. If Madison Keys can get 75% of first serves in and just play with virtually no unforced errors she could win this match, but that is a big ask and I am looking for Kerber to put up her third win in Singapore in a 75, 63 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: You cannot look past the fortune that Philipp Kohlschreiber got in this win over Stephane Robert on Wednesday and he will need a lot more of that to snap his nine match losing run to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. It will be interesting to see if Kohlschreiber has had the time to recover physically from what was a testing match against Robert and the Frenchman he faces on Thursday is a lot more powerful and consistent.
The recent run of results have shown Kohlschreiber might not be at his full confidence level and that has seen him struggle on the serve. On another day he would have been beaten easily by Robert and being as loose as that against Tsonga is only going to result in yet another defeat to this opponent.
Tsonga hasn't played a lot of tennis since the retirement at the US Open but he has looked solid enough in the limited time he has been on court. He was an easy winner in the First Round in Vienna where he has won the title before and I think the indoor hard courts suit his game just fine as he is able to dictate points comfortably behind the heavy forehand.
If Tsonga is serving well it will only increase the pressure on Kohlschreiber to stay with him and I think that will ultimately prove too much for the German to do. I like Tsonga to build the pressure and crack Kohlschreiber in a 63, 64 win.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Gilles Simon: When these players met in Shanghai it was a poor day serving from Andy Murray that allowed Gilles Simon to remain competitive against him. The courts in Vienna may help Murray get a little more out of his first serve which had not been as productive as he liked in Shanghai and I think the match up is one that Murray will know exactly what to expect.
Simon is going to battle hard and he will extend rallies with his defensive movement and ability to put the ball in some awkward spots for Murray to try and do something with. The Frenchman is able to get to the net and stop Murray from just chipping the ball into play, but his weakness remains the serve which should see the World Number 2 be able to get into the rallies.
I have little doubt that Murray is going to be in a position to break serve a few times and the key will be to make sure he takes a solid percentage of those and not allow them to slip past. What is harder to guess is whether Murray is going to be able to serve well enough to prevent Simon from continuously battling back like he did when these players met in Shanghai and it does have to be said that plenty of their previous matches have been competitive affairs.
The form Murray has been in definitely gives him an edge though and I think he has taken the chances that have come his way when he does get into break point positions. He has at least been serving decently enough to help himself to a 64, 62 win in this one barring another late break when serving for the match as he had in Shanghai.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: There is still a really big opportunity for Marin Cilic to reach the ATP World Tour Finals with two big weeks under his belt and that would be a nice way to end his Singles season before heading into the Davis Cup. This gives him a strong chance to reach the Quarter Final in Basel as Cilic is playing Pablo Carreno Busta in the Second Round, a player who has played a lot of tennis of late.
The Spaniard is in a position to be Seeded at the Australian Open and Carreno Busta has shown some improvements on surfaces other than the clay courts. His title win in Moscow last week has to be respected, but Carreno Busta didn't have to beat anyone of the quality of Cilic in that run and this is a big test for him.
Carreno Busta has suffered a couple of one-sided losses to Milos Raonic and Gilles Simon on the hard courts prior to the win in Moscow and Cilic is certainly more equivalent to the qualities that those two players can bring. I think an aggressive return will put Carreno Busta under some pressure and the heavier groundstrokes should come from the Cilic racquet although he will have to control the unforced errors.
There are going to be some sticky moments on the Cilic serve because of the way that Carreno Busta is playing, but I think the Croatian can keep alive his chances of making it to London with a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-12, - 7.76 Units (42 Units Staked, - 18.48% Yield)
Karolina Pliskova blew a set and a break lead to eventually go down against Svetlana Kuznetsova, while the Fabio Fognini pick just never got off the ground.
However it was the other four picks that fell apart that absolutely got under my skin... Garbine Muguruza was up a break in the second set but ended up losing 6/7 games to miss the cover by one game and that became an ugly theme of the day.
Feliciano Lopez decided he would throw in his double faults during this two tie-breakers with John Isner to effectively give up those to the big American. In fact I think he lost his first two service points in both tie-breakers to give up the match for all intents and purposes.
Things didn't improve with both Kei Nishikori and Robin Haase missing their own covers by single games. Nishikori had 15-40 on Paolo Lorenzi's opening two service games and couldn't break and missed all 6 break points he earned in set one to eventually win 76, 62 to miss his cover, while Haase broke the Juan Martin Del Potro serve three times in the second set and still couldn't at least get to a tie-breaker which is pathetic when you consider that.
I can pretty much say that is the way my 2016 season has gone with little luck at the very crux of matches far too often and that has meant I haven't been able to pick up the momentum I should have done. In all honesty even a little bit of luck at the big moments would have seen at least half of those losses come back as winners and keep the positive run going, but instead every single one looked to have landed on the wrong side because the players I've picked have lost those big points.
Frustration is putting it mildly.
The WTA Finals Red Group is going to be decided on Thursday and things have become fairly clear in the Group. Dominika Cibulkova has to win in straight sets and hope Angelique Kerber beats Madison Keys in straight sets to have a chance of getting through to the Semi Final.
That is the only way Cibulkova can get through, but a straight sets win for Simona Halep will put her through to the Semi Final regardless of what happens in the other match. A straight sets win for Keys over Kerber would put her through to the Semi Final and it does feel that both matches are going to have some importance attached unlike in the White Group where Garbine Muguruza has been knocked out and Svetlana Kuznetsova has already booked her place in the Semi Final.
Thursday will also bring Second Round action from the ATP events in Basel and Vienna as the Quarter Final line up is set for Friday.
Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: The first set is going to be critical to the outcome of this match and it might be difficult for Dominika Cibulkova to stay focused if she drops that and is ultimately out of the tournament. Now the Slovakian is one of the biggest fighters on the Tour and unlikely to give up in any match she plays, but it can be difficult to motivate when at the end of a long season in which she has surpassed expectations.
For Simona Halep taking at least a set in this one, even in a losing effort, will give her a chance of progressing through to the Semi Final but she will then be reliant on Angelique Kerber beating Madison Keys. However a straight sets win for Halep will put her through to the Semi Final regardless of the outcome of the final match in the Group.
The match up is a difficult one to weigh up because Halep looks to have the consistency, but I think the Cibulkova firepower and desire makes her hard to stop. Neither player has a big serve and it could easily come down to which of them perhaps takes a few more chances that pay off with the short ball, particularly on the second serve, which could prove to be the difference.
That is an area I think Halep can be stronger and I believe she is going to make the big plays at the big moments to push ahead in this tournament. It should be a couple of tight sets being competed by these two players but Halep can win this one 64, 64 for a place in the Semi Final.
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Madison Keys: Both of these players are going to know their exact situation in the Group heading out onto the court and that might play a part in how this match goes. I am not going to read too much into what I expect to happen in the first match of the day, but instead focus on how I think this match will go.
You can't ignore the fact that Angelique Kerber has won all five previous matches against Madison Keys and I think this is the kind of opponent that the American has to learn to deal with to take the next step in her career. Like Simona Halep, Kerber has the tools to negate the big Keys serve and force the younger player to try and beat her with consistency off the ground.
While Kerber can accept that Keys will be able to penetrate the defences with the power she has, the World Number 1 will also know she can force mistakes from the Keys game by getting as many balls back in play as possible. Going into the Keys backhand from the Kerber forehand should also be a productive play to open up the court for Kerber and having to play as many balls as Keys is likely going to have to can be mentally draining.
These players have met twice in 2016 and Kerber has won all four sets and I think she will have enough of an edge in the longer rallies to wear down Keys in this one. If Madison Keys can get 75% of first serves in and just play with virtually no unforced errors she could win this match, but that is a big ask and I am looking for Kerber to put up her third win in Singapore in a 75, 63 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: You cannot look past the fortune that Philipp Kohlschreiber got in this win over Stephane Robert on Wednesday and he will need a lot more of that to snap his nine match losing run to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. It will be interesting to see if Kohlschreiber has had the time to recover physically from what was a testing match against Robert and the Frenchman he faces on Thursday is a lot more powerful and consistent.
The recent run of results have shown Kohlschreiber might not be at his full confidence level and that has seen him struggle on the serve. On another day he would have been beaten easily by Robert and being as loose as that against Tsonga is only going to result in yet another defeat to this opponent.
Tsonga hasn't played a lot of tennis since the retirement at the US Open but he has looked solid enough in the limited time he has been on court. He was an easy winner in the First Round in Vienna where he has won the title before and I think the indoor hard courts suit his game just fine as he is able to dictate points comfortably behind the heavy forehand.
If Tsonga is serving well it will only increase the pressure on Kohlschreiber to stay with him and I think that will ultimately prove too much for the German to do. I like Tsonga to build the pressure and crack Kohlschreiber in a 63, 64 win.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Gilles Simon: When these players met in Shanghai it was a poor day serving from Andy Murray that allowed Gilles Simon to remain competitive against him. The courts in Vienna may help Murray get a little more out of his first serve which had not been as productive as he liked in Shanghai and I think the match up is one that Murray will know exactly what to expect.
Simon is going to battle hard and he will extend rallies with his defensive movement and ability to put the ball in some awkward spots for Murray to try and do something with. The Frenchman is able to get to the net and stop Murray from just chipping the ball into play, but his weakness remains the serve which should see the World Number 2 be able to get into the rallies.
I have little doubt that Murray is going to be in a position to break serve a few times and the key will be to make sure he takes a solid percentage of those and not allow them to slip past. What is harder to guess is whether Murray is going to be able to serve well enough to prevent Simon from continuously battling back like he did when these players met in Shanghai and it does have to be said that plenty of their previous matches have been competitive affairs.
The form Murray has been in definitely gives him an edge though and I think he has taken the chances that have come his way when he does get into break point positions. He has at least been serving decently enough to help himself to a 64, 62 win in this one barring another late break when serving for the match as he had in Shanghai.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: There is still a really big opportunity for Marin Cilic to reach the ATP World Tour Finals with two big weeks under his belt and that would be a nice way to end his Singles season before heading into the Davis Cup. This gives him a strong chance to reach the Quarter Final in Basel as Cilic is playing Pablo Carreno Busta in the Second Round, a player who has played a lot of tennis of late.
The Spaniard is in a position to be Seeded at the Australian Open and Carreno Busta has shown some improvements on surfaces other than the clay courts. His title win in Moscow last week has to be respected, but Carreno Busta didn't have to beat anyone of the quality of Cilic in that run and this is a big test for him.
Carreno Busta has suffered a couple of one-sided losses to Milos Raonic and Gilles Simon on the hard courts prior to the win in Moscow and Cilic is certainly more equivalent to the qualities that those two players can bring. I think an aggressive return will put Carreno Busta under some pressure and the heavier groundstrokes should come from the Cilic racquet although he will have to control the unforced errors.
There are going to be some sticky moments on the Cilic serve because of the way that Carreno Busta is playing, but I think the Croatian can keep alive his chances of making it to London with a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-12, - 7.76 Units (42 Units Staked, - 18.48% Yield)
Saturday, 24 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 25th)
The WTA Tour Finals begin on Sunday although it looks a difficult tournament to get a handle on considering how many doubts surround some of the top names in the event.
Others may look at some outsiders to win the tournament, but I will instead look at individual matches during the course of the week and hope to produce a positive result from it.
The Finals in Moscow, Stockholm and Vienna are going to be played this Sunday and the draws for Basel and Valencia have been made as the ATP Tour still has a few more weeks to go before the World Tour Finals and the Davis Cup Final finish off the 2015 season.
Flavia Pennetta + 4.5 games v Simona Halep: The WTA Tour Finals opens up between the only Grand Slam winner in the tournament following Serena Williams' decision to withdraw from the event. Flavia Pennetta is the surprise winner of the US Open where she beat Simona Halep very easily in the Semi Final and I think the Italian is perhaps getting too many games in the opening match in Singapore.
If Simona Halep had been fully healthy I could understand her being asked to cover this number of games, but I think she is far from 100% entering the tournament. Some may point out that Flavia Pennetta hasn't looked the same player since winning the US Open with retirement now just a week away, but I am not buying that for this number of games being offered to her backers.
This is is for Pennetta and I have to think she will empty the tank in anticipation of that and there is every chance she can progress to the Semi Finals from this Group. Pennetta also knows she can beat Simona Halep when she is perhaps not at her best as she did in the US Open Final and I think she has had much more competitive tennis in her legs than her opponent.
I can easily see the Italian taking a set in this match and that would be enough to see her keep herself within this number I would feel. The fact I think there is a real chance she can win this match only makes the games more appealing too and I will back Pennetta in my first pick from the WTA Tour Finals this week.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: Marin Cilic had one slight blip on his way through to the Final in Moscow for the second season in a row, but he has looked very good in his last two wins in the event. This is easily the best player that he will have faced this week when he takes on Roberto Bautista Agut who has eased his way through the draw without dropping a set.
This is the second season in a row Cilic and Bautista Agut will be playing in the Final in Moscow and it is likely to be another close match as it was last season. On that occasion it was Cilic who won the big points to win the title in two sets and I expect this to be another match that will decided by a couple of points here and there.
Cilic's serve might prove to be a difference maker as it can help him get out of those difficult moments with relative comfort compared with Bautista Agut. That won't be the same for the Spaniard who will have to win prolonged rallies to come through his service games which can become more of an issue in those pressurised situations.
That played a part in the Bautista Agut's 64, 64 loss to Cilic last season in the Final in Moscow and I think he can retain his title with a similar kind of win.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Jack Sock: When Tomas Berdych and Jack Sock met in Shanghai earlier in the month, it was a very close match that was decided by a couple of points here and there in favour of Berdych. Getting a look at what he is going to face in Stockholm might work in Berdych's favour this week as will the fact that he has come through a number of matches before facing Sock.
This should be a good match considering both players have had some impressive wins this week, and I think the serve is going to be a key weapon for both Berdych and Sock.
Winning a title for the first time is difficult, but Sock has gotten that monkey off his back when winning in Houston so I expect the American to be ready. However, I am not always convinced with his fitness levels and I think Berdych does have the edge in the match in terms of the battle off the ground.
Sock has a lot of confidence though and can make it difficult for Berdych as he did in Shanghai when he took a set off Berdych. However, I think Berdych having seen what Sock can bring to the table will be a little more solid at key moments to win the title in Stockholm with a 76, 64 win.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Steve Johnson: It has been a very good week for Steve Johnson having rode his luck a little bit to get to the Final in Vienna. Now he faces a motivated David Ferrer who is looking to add the points that will put him on the brink of reaching the World Tour Finals without the need to put too much stress on the final two weeks of the season.
David Ferrer is definitely a player in form having also won the title in Kuala Lumper recently and also adding a Semi Final in Beijing to recent successes.
As well as Johnson has played this week, he hasn't been in that same kind of form and I think the American will do well to make this a competitive match. He has a decent serve, but is always likely to throw in at least one sloppy service game per set and is also facing a player that will get plenty of balls back into play and extract the errors that will be expected to follow.
It will come down to whether Ferrer can take the chances that come his way in this one and once he gets in front he can perhaps wear down Johnson mentally in the Final. After some battling games, I like Ferrer winning the title behind a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Flavia Pennetta + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-7, - 3.66 Units (26 Units Staked, - 14.08% Yield)
Others may look at some outsiders to win the tournament, but I will instead look at individual matches during the course of the week and hope to produce a positive result from it.
The Finals in Moscow, Stockholm and Vienna are going to be played this Sunday and the draws for Basel and Valencia have been made as the ATP Tour still has a few more weeks to go before the World Tour Finals and the Davis Cup Final finish off the 2015 season.
Flavia Pennetta + 4.5 games v Simona Halep: The WTA Tour Finals opens up between the only Grand Slam winner in the tournament following Serena Williams' decision to withdraw from the event. Flavia Pennetta is the surprise winner of the US Open where she beat Simona Halep very easily in the Semi Final and I think the Italian is perhaps getting too many games in the opening match in Singapore.
If Simona Halep had been fully healthy I could understand her being asked to cover this number of games, but I think she is far from 100% entering the tournament. Some may point out that Flavia Pennetta hasn't looked the same player since winning the US Open with retirement now just a week away, but I am not buying that for this number of games being offered to her backers.
This is is for Pennetta and I have to think she will empty the tank in anticipation of that and there is every chance she can progress to the Semi Finals from this Group. Pennetta also knows she can beat Simona Halep when she is perhaps not at her best as she did in the US Open Final and I think she has had much more competitive tennis in her legs than her opponent.
I can easily see the Italian taking a set in this match and that would be enough to see her keep herself within this number I would feel. The fact I think there is a real chance she can win this match only makes the games more appealing too and I will back Pennetta in my first pick from the WTA Tour Finals this week.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: Marin Cilic had one slight blip on his way through to the Final in Moscow for the second season in a row, but he has looked very good in his last two wins in the event. This is easily the best player that he will have faced this week when he takes on Roberto Bautista Agut who has eased his way through the draw without dropping a set.
This is the second season in a row Cilic and Bautista Agut will be playing in the Final in Moscow and it is likely to be another close match as it was last season. On that occasion it was Cilic who won the big points to win the title in two sets and I expect this to be another match that will decided by a couple of points here and there.
Cilic's serve might prove to be a difference maker as it can help him get out of those difficult moments with relative comfort compared with Bautista Agut. That won't be the same for the Spaniard who will have to win prolonged rallies to come through his service games which can become more of an issue in those pressurised situations.
That played a part in the Bautista Agut's 64, 64 loss to Cilic last season in the Final in Moscow and I think he can retain his title with a similar kind of win.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Jack Sock: When Tomas Berdych and Jack Sock met in Shanghai earlier in the month, it was a very close match that was decided by a couple of points here and there in favour of Berdych. Getting a look at what he is going to face in Stockholm might work in Berdych's favour this week as will the fact that he has come through a number of matches before facing Sock.
This should be a good match considering both players have had some impressive wins this week, and I think the serve is going to be a key weapon for both Berdych and Sock.
Winning a title for the first time is difficult, but Sock has gotten that monkey off his back when winning in Houston so I expect the American to be ready. However, I am not always convinced with his fitness levels and I think Berdych does have the edge in the match in terms of the battle off the ground.
Sock has a lot of confidence though and can make it difficult for Berdych as he did in Shanghai when he took a set off Berdych. However, I think Berdych having seen what Sock can bring to the table will be a little more solid at key moments to win the title in Stockholm with a 76, 64 win.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Steve Johnson: It has been a very good week for Steve Johnson having rode his luck a little bit to get to the Final in Vienna. Now he faces a motivated David Ferrer who is looking to add the points that will put him on the brink of reaching the World Tour Finals without the need to put too much stress on the final two weeks of the season.
David Ferrer is definitely a player in form having also won the title in Kuala Lumper recently and also adding a Semi Final in Beijing to recent successes.
As well as Johnson has played this week, he hasn't been in that same kind of form and I think the American will do well to make this a competitive match. He has a decent serve, but is always likely to throw in at least one sloppy service game per set and is also facing a player that will get plenty of balls back into play and extract the errors that will be expected to follow.
It will come down to whether Ferrer can take the chances that come his way in this one and once he gets in front he can perhaps wear down Johnson mentally in the Final. After some battling games, I like Ferrer winning the title behind a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Flavia Pennetta + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-7, - 3.66 Units (26 Units Staked, - 14.08% Yield)
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 24th)
The WTA Finals Groups were drawn on Friday and that tournament begins on Sunday, but the focus before that will be to conclude the final tournaments of the season the WTA Tour.
Those events in Luxembourg and Moscow conclude in the next couple of days as do the three ATP tournaments in Moscow, Stockholm and Vienna where it looks like David Ferrer is going to be the player who takes advantage of others slipping up in a bid to reach the ATP World Tour Finals.
Next week Basel is the big tournament to try and take some more points and put them in the bank for those chasing a top eight spot for London, but it does look like it is going to be tough for anyone outside of the current top eight to make it. Only Andy Murray withdrawing from the event would make the next two weeks very exciting as it would open up the ninth spot for a place in the World Tour Finals and there are up to five players that potentially fit into that spot.
It looks like it will be a controversial decision when Murray decides what to do about the World Tour Finals, but I think I can see a situation where he perhaps begins the event and then pull out if he loses his first Group game. There is no doubt the Davis Cup Final looks the most important match that Andy Murray is going to be play in the remainder of the 2015 season and he has openly admitted he needs days to be ready to compete on a clay court.
Playing in the Group at least gives the fans what they want, although I am not sure his 'tanking' would be particularly good viewing if Murray is simply there to honour his commitments.
If it was me, I would probably give up the Tour Finals and make sure I have put in the time and effort I know it is going to take to transition onto the clay courts and I don't think I would play too much tennis between now and then. Maybe take in the Paris Masters as that prevents any competitive rustiness, but the Tour Finals would certainly be an event I would look to miss if I was Murray.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Marcos Baghdatis: The Semi Final in Stockholm I have focused on is Tomas Berdych facing Marcos Baghdatis and I do like the top ten player to come through in straight sets and ensure he covers this number.
It is unlikely that Berdych will ever pick up a Grand Slam title and that might make it seem his career has been an underachievement for the potential he showed. However, it isn't easy to be as consistent as he has been and I think he is playing well enough this week to see of Baghdatis' challenge.
It has been a very good week for Baghdatis up to this point, but it feels strange to say he is only three months older than Berdych considering the drop he has had in the Rankings in recent years. That is down to injury as much as a loss of consistency though and Baghdatis is still capable of these big weeks.
His talent has seen him hold the head to head advantage over Berdych, but things might have changed too much the other way in the intervening five years since they last played. Berdych should have a serve that can keep Baghdatis at bay and I always think the Cypriot doesn't get enough first serves in to really compete for long enough to win matches consistently.
Once Berdych gets a feel for the second serve, I like him to win this match 64, 64 and move into another Final this month.
David Ferrer - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: After an up and down 2014, it goes to show how solid David Ferrer's 2015 season has been that he is set to reach the World Tour Finals again despite missing a large portion of the season through injury.
Ferrer has been in some good form this week, but he runs into a tough Semi Final opponent in Gael Monfils who has battled through difficult moments. It is a very good run considering Monfils has just returned to the Tour from an injury from the US Open which kept him out of the Asian swing.
His athleticism gave Ferrer plenty of problems when they met the first three times, although it was the mental strength of coming through in best of five setters in Grand Slam and Davis Cup matches that impressed from Monfils.
Things might have changed though as Ferrer has crushed Monfils the last two times they have played and I think the Spaniard has enough motivation to go on and win this tournament. It might take three sets to win this one with the way Monfils has been playing but I like Ferrer to find his way to a 63, 46, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-7, - 5.26 Units Staked (24 Units Staked, - 21.92% Yield)
Those events in Luxembourg and Moscow conclude in the next couple of days as do the three ATP tournaments in Moscow, Stockholm and Vienna where it looks like David Ferrer is going to be the player who takes advantage of others slipping up in a bid to reach the ATP World Tour Finals.
Next week Basel is the big tournament to try and take some more points and put them in the bank for those chasing a top eight spot for London, but it does look like it is going to be tough for anyone outside of the current top eight to make it. Only Andy Murray withdrawing from the event would make the next two weeks very exciting as it would open up the ninth spot for a place in the World Tour Finals and there are up to five players that potentially fit into that spot.
It looks like it will be a controversial decision when Murray decides what to do about the World Tour Finals, but I think I can see a situation where he perhaps begins the event and then pull out if he loses his first Group game. There is no doubt the Davis Cup Final looks the most important match that Andy Murray is going to be play in the remainder of the 2015 season and he has openly admitted he needs days to be ready to compete on a clay court.
Playing in the Group at least gives the fans what they want, although I am not sure his 'tanking' would be particularly good viewing if Murray is simply there to honour his commitments.
If it was me, I would probably give up the Tour Finals and make sure I have put in the time and effort I know it is going to take to transition onto the clay courts and I don't think I would play too much tennis between now and then. Maybe take in the Paris Masters as that prevents any competitive rustiness, but the Tour Finals would certainly be an event I would look to miss if I was Murray.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Marcos Baghdatis: The Semi Final in Stockholm I have focused on is Tomas Berdych facing Marcos Baghdatis and I do like the top ten player to come through in straight sets and ensure he covers this number.
It is unlikely that Berdych will ever pick up a Grand Slam title and that might make it seem his career has been an underachievement for the potential he showed. However, it isn't easy to be as consistent as he has been and I think he is playing well enough this week to see of Baghdatis' challenge.
It has been a very good week for Baghdatis up to this point, but it feels strange to say he is only three months older than Berdych considering the drop he has had in the Rankings in recent years. That is down to injury as much as a loss of consistency though and Baghdatis is still capable of these big weeks.
His talent has seen him hold the head to head advantage over Berdych, but things might have changed too much the other way in the intervening five years since they last played. Berdych should have a serve that can keep Baghdatis at bay and I always think the Cypriot doesn't get enough first serves in to really compete for long enough to win matches consistently.
Once Berdych gets a feel for the second serve, I like him to win this match 64, 64 and move into another Final this month.
David Ferrer - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: After an up and down 2014, it goes to show how solid David Ferrer's 2015 season has been that he is set to reach the World Tour Finals again despite missing a large portion of the season through injury.
Ferrer has been in some good form this week, but he runs into a tough Semi Final opponent in Gael Monfils who has battled through difficult moments. It is a very good run considering Monfils has just returned to the Tour from an injury from the US Open which kept him out of the Asian swing.
His athleticism gave Ferrer plenty of problems when they met the first three times, although it was the mental strength of coming through in best of five setters in Grand Slam and Davis Cup matches that impressed from Monfils.
Things might have changed though as Ferrer has crushed Monfils the last two times they have played and I think the Spaniard has enough motivation to go on and win this tournament. It might take three sets to win this one with the way Monfils has been playing but I like Ferrer to find his way to a 63, 46, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-7, - 5.26 Units Staked (24 Units Staked, - 21.92% Yield)
Friday, 23 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 23rd)
The WTA Tour Finals final eight was set on Thursday and that event will begin in Singapore on Sunday, although the official confirmation of the players that will take part will likely come in the next couple of days.
The race for the ATP World Tour Finals will continue on Friday, but Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was unable to back up his huge week at the Shanghai Masters. It does mean the likes of David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet and Kevin Anderson can take advantage of that slip and promote their own chances to earn a place in London although there is still a few tournaments left to play after this week to do that.
Kevin Anderson - 2.5 games v Steve Johnson: This is a big week for Kevin Anderson if he wants to make a move towards the World Tour Finals and he is favoured to win this Quarter Final against Steve Johnson.
Both players have had to battle through two matches to get into the Quarter Final, although it has to be said that neither would have expected to lose the matches they have played. The difference between the players might be that Kevin Anderson has been playing at a higher level more consistently than Steve Johnson who generally finds the very top players too much to overcome.
I can see both players having success with their serve in this one, but Johnson's can be a little more inconsistent and I think that is a big reason Anderson has won their last four matches. Anderson himself admits his serve is the biggest weapon he has and he has won all three matches against Johnson in 2015 and the majority of them have seen him come through and cover this number.
There will likely be a tie-breaker at some point in this match and I can see Anderson coming through that before being able to find a break of serve to ensure he moves into the Semi Final 76, 64.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Lukas Rosol: I was a little concerned with how much Gael Monfils would be able to raise his game this week having come through an injury before taking his place in the draw.
So far it has been pretty good for Monfils who has won four sets in a row to move into the Quarter Finals and I do wonder if he will ever fulfil the potential he clearly has. It has always been about entertaining the crowds for Monfils more than about winning, but he has made some coaching changes to perhaps balance that out a little more.
He is facing a dangerous opponent in Lukas Rosol who is capable of bringing some exceptional tennis to the court. Unfortunately there is a lot of average stuff thrown in too although Rosol will have some confidence having knocked off one Frenchman in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Second Round.
Backing up that kind of win will be difficult for Rosol who has lost his last two matches against Monfils whose athleticism forces Rosol to play too many balls. That extracts errors from the Rosol game and I think it might be something similar on Friday in this Quarter Final as Monfils takes the chances that come his way and moves through 75, 64.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: When Jeremy Chardy serves well, he can be a real handful for any player to face him, but facing a compatriot like Richard Gasquet also means overcoming mental issues. There is a hierarchy in tennis that can be difficult to ignore and Richard Gasquet has won his last two matches against Jeremy Chardy fairly comfortably.
They haven't played this season though and Chardy has played well during the course of the year although he has struggled in recent weeks. His week so far in Stockholm has been a solid one so far and Richard Gasquet could easily be a little undercooked having been offered a pass through to the Quarter Final when Steve Darcis retired.
It has been difficult for Gasquet since the US Open as he was just 2-2 before the tournament in Stockholm began, but he could easily challenge for a place at the World Tour Finals. With Jo-Wilfried Tsonga out, Gasquet is in line to take over 9th place in the Race for London and perhaps even start closing the gap to David Ferrer in the coming couple of weeks.
This is going to be a battle for Gasquet, but I think he has enough quality from the back of the court to see off Chardy in a close match. A couple of late breaks of serve might be enough in this one for Gasquet to come through 64, 64.
Jelena Jankovic - 5.5 games v Misaki Doi: She won the title in Hong Kong and Jelena Jankovic looks primed to end this 2015 season with perhaps another title to add to her collection. Jankovic was an impressive winner in Hong Kong and she has picked up from where she left off there in Luxembourg where her first two wins have come by a comfortable margin.
I think Jankovic will have too much quality for Misaki Doi who has performed well to come through two matches in Luxembourg which has also ended a run of five consecutive losses.
For the most part Doi can struggle against the very top players as her serve can be a weakness and finding herself having a hard time to hold that serve means mentally she is under pressure in a lot of her matches.
That is especially the case against someone like Jankovic who is a very capable returner and I think the Serb is able to come through this one by a fairly comfortable margin. The last time these players met saw Doi take three games, but I think she will have a couple more this time although still not enough to get within this number.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-4, - 1.08 Units (16 Units Staked, - 6.75% Yield)
The race for the ATP World Tour Finals will continue on Friday, but Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was unable to back up his huge week at the Shanghai Masters. It does mean the likes of David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet and Kevin Anderson can take advantage of that slip and promote their own chances to earn a place in London although there is still a few tournaments left to play after this week to do that.
Kevin Anderson - 2.5 games v Steve Johnson: This is a big week for Kevin Anderson if he wants to make a move towards the World Tour Finals and he is favoured to win this Quarter Final against Steve Johnson.
Both players have had to battle through two matches to get into the Quarter Final, although it has to be said that neither would have expected to lose the matches they have played. The difference between the players might be that Kevin Anderson has been playing at a higher level more consistently than Steve Johnson who generally finds the very top players too much to overcome.
I can see both players having success with their serve in this one, but Johnson's can be a little more inconsistent and I think that is a big reason Anderson has won their last four matches. Anderson himself admits his serve is the biggest weapon he has and he has won all three matches against Johnson in 2015 and the majority of them have seen him come through and cover this number.
There will likely be a tie-breaker at some point in this match and I can see Anderson coming through that before being able to find a break of serve to ensure he moves into the Semi Final 76, 64.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Lukas Rosol: I was a little concerned with how much Gael Monfils would be able to raise his game this week having come through an injury before taking his place in the draw.
So far it has been pretty good for Monfils who has won four sets in a row to move into the Quarter Finals and I do wonder if he will ever fulfil the potential he clearly has. It has always been about entertaining the crowds for Monfils more than about winning, but he has made some coaching changes to perhaps balance that out a little more.
He is facing a dangerous opponent in Lukas Rosol who is capable of bringing some exceptional tennis to the court. Unfortunately there is a lot of average stuff thrown in too although Rosol will have some confidence having knocked off one Frenchman in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Second Round.
Backing up that kind of win will be difficult for Rosol who has lost his last two matches against Monfils whose athleticism forces Rosol to play too many balls. That extracts errors from the Rosol game and I think it might be something similar on Friday in this Quarter Final as Monfils takes the chances that come his way and moves through 75, 64.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: When Jeremy Chardy serves well, he can be a real handful for any player to face him, but facing a compatriot like Richard Gasquet also means overcoming mental issues. There is a hierarchy in tennis that can be difficult to ignore and Richard Gasquet has won his last two matches against Jeremy Chardy fairly comfortably.
They haven't played this season though and Chardy has played well during the course of the year although he has struggled in recent weeks. His week so far in Stockholm has been a solid one so far and Richard Gasquet could easily be a little undercooked having been offered a pass through to the Quarter Final when Steve Darcis retired.
It has been difficult for Gasquet since the US Open as he was just 2-2 before the tournament in Stockholm began, but he could easily challenge for a place at the World Tour Finals. With Jo-Wilfried Tsonga out, Gasquet is in line to take over 9th place in the Race for London and perhaps even start closing the gap to David Ferrer in the coming couple of weeks.
This is going to be a battle for Gasquet, but I think he has enough quality from the back of the court to see off Chardy in a close match. A couple of late breaks of serve might be enough in this one for Gasquet to come through 64, 64.
Jelena Jankovic - 5.5 games v Misaki Doi: She won the title in Hong Kong and Jelena Jankovic looks primed to end this 2015 season with perhaps another title to add to her collection. Jankovic was an impressive winner in Hong Kong and she has picked up from where she left off there in Luxembourg where her first two wins have come by a comfortable margin.
I think Jankovic will have too much quality for Misaki Doi who has performed well to come through two matches in Luxembourg which has also ended a run of five consecutive losses.
For the most part Doi can struggle against the very top players as her serve can be a weakness and finding herself having a hard time to hold that serve means mentally she is under pressure in a lot of her matches.
That is especially the case against someone like Jankovic who is a very capable returner and I think the Serb is able to come through this one by a fairly comfortable margin. The last time these players met saw Doi take three games, but I think she will have a couple more this time although still not enough to get within this number.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-4, - 1.08 Units (16 Units Staked, - 6.75% Yield)
Wednesday, 21 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 21st)
The final three places in the WTA Tour Finals will be decided this week and that means the contenders for those places are desperate for one more big run in the tournaments in Luxembourg and Moscow to sow those places up.
The WTA Tour Finals are played in Singapore from Sunday so the remaining contenders can pick up some momentum going into the final tournament of the 2015 season.
The ATP World Tour Finals look a little more settled with the final eight in a strong position to wrap up their spots even prior to the final Masters of the season in Paris in a couple of weeks time. David Ferrer is in eighth place, but he came from a set down to win his match in Vienna which could be a vital victory for him as he looks to make sure he finishes above Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who certainly has plenty of momentum behind him from the last month.
Tsonga will be in action on Wednesday as he tries to back up a big week in Shanghai as the tennis tournaments move forward this week.
Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: It has been a very good season for Ivo Karlovic who is back in the top twenty of the World Rankings at 36 years old which he has to be given credit for. The serve continues to be a huge weapon for Karlovic who would love to underline his 2015 season with a couple of strong showings beginning in Vienna.
The Second Round match with Sergiy Stakhovsky is a difficult looking one with the latter capable of playing some very high class tennis. However, there are a lot of drops from that level from Stakhovsky too although he does have a win under his belt in Vienna which may give him an edge in terms of knowing what conditions to expect.
That shouldn't bother Karlovic with his first serve effective on most hard courts and he has also won the last three matches against Stakhovsky having initially lost the first two. He might not be the best returner on the Tour, but Karlovic will know that Stakhovsky is likely to attack the net and is not always the cleanest volleyer when he gets there.
I have to believe that is a big reason why Karlovic is able to break the Stakhovsky serve as frequently as he has in the last three matches against him. Karlovic is also likely to try and take the net away from Stakhovsky by employing the slice and following that in and I think his serve will help him through any pressure moments better than Stakhovsky's will for him.
After a couple of long sets, I am looking for Karlovic to win this one 76, 64.
Simone Bolelli - 3.5 games v Lucas Pouille: At 21 years old, Lucas Pouille still has some learning to do if he is to become a top professional on the Tour, but his World Ranking of Number 70 isn't a bad return out of 2015. Of course 2016 is all about pushing on, but this season might be over for Pouille from a mental standpoint.
A long season can take its toll on a young player at this time of the season and we saw Nick Kyrgios cut his 2014 season short with that in mind. Pouille hasn't done the same, but he has lost four matches in a row and has failed to win a set in any of those matches and also not won more than four games in any of the eight sets competed in.
The slower hard courts in Moscow make work to the favour of Simone Bolelli too although the Italian is capable on the faster surfaces too. This is already Bolelli's best season on the main Tour by a considerable distance and he has had a lot more wins than Pouille in recent weeks which should boost his confidence for this First Round match.
Bolelli has a decent serve when he is on his game and I think he is going to take down a player he has beaten three times in the last twelve months including twice this season. With his ability to play the long rallies on the clay courts, the slower conditions won't bother Bolelli here either and I think he breaks down Pouille 76, 63 over two sets.
Victor Troicki - 1.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: Both of these players have looked like they are playing out the string in this 2015 season and both Victor Troicki and Teymuraz Gabashvili can produce some really good quality tennis as well as some complete dross in the same match.
At least Troicki can say he has had a couple of wins here and there recently compared with Gabashvili, although the latter is playing at home and has a win under his belt here.
As I have said, both can go through some real fluctuations within the same match and I would not be surprised if both were to win a set in this one. However Troicki could hold the mental edge not just because of his recent form compared with Gabashvili, but has also won all four matches against Gabashvili in previous matches.
Those matches are at least four years old though so I am not sure they are relevant now, but Gabashvili hasn't looked like a player that has had too much left in tank in the last couple of weeks. I am not completely sold on Troicki's mentality having lost a couple of Grand Slam matches from 2-0 up in sets this season, but I think he comes through in three sets and has enough to cover this number.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 5.5 games v Klara Koukalova: Svetlana Kuznetsova has more ups and downs in her performances these days than she did when she won two Grand Slam titles, but I still think she is too good at home against Klara Koukalova.
All three previous matches have gone in favour of Kuznetsova although the last of those came here in Moscow last season and was cut short when Koukalova retired having lost the first set.
There has been a little more confidence coming out of recent Koukalova performances having won some more matches, albeit at a lower level than Kuznetsova would be used to. Coming through three Qualifier matches will have helped her mentally for this challenge of facing Kuznetsova, but I still believe the latter has too much in the tank for her.
The serve is not as effective as it once was, but I think Kuznetsova can protect that shot for just long enough to send the pressure on Koukalova. The latter has really struggled to match the top players for most of the season and Kuznetsova still qualifies for that criteria as a top 32 player in the World Rankings.
After a battle through the first set, I like Kuznetsova winning this one 75, 62.
MY PICKS: Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simone Bolelli - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victor Troicki - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.54 Units (4 Units Staked, - 13.5% Yield)
The WTA Tour Finals are played in Singapore from Sunday so the remaining contenders can pick up some momentum going into the final tournament of the 2015 season.
The ATP World Tour Finals look a little more settled with the final eight in a strong position to wrap up their spots even prior to the final Masters of the season in Paris in a couple of weeks time. David Ferrer is in eighth place, but he came from a set down to win his match in Vienna which could be a vital victory for him as he looks to make sure he finishes above Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who certainly has plenty of momentum behind him from the last month.
Tsonga will be in action on Wednesday as he tries to back up a big week in Shanghai as the tennis tournaments move forward this week.
Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: It has been a very good season for Ivo Karlovic who is back in the top twenty of the World Rankings at 36 years old which he has to be given credit for. The serve continues to be a huge weapon for Karlovic who would love to underline his 2015 season with a couple of strong showings beginning in Vienna.
The Second Round match with Sergiy Stakhovsky is a difficult looking one with the latter capable of playing some very high class tennis. However, there are a lot of drops from that level from Stakhovsky too although he does have a win under his belt in Vienna which may give him an edge in terms of knowing what conditions to expect.
That shouldn't bother Karlovic with his first serve effective on most hard courts and he has also won the last three matches against Stakhovsky having initially lost the first two. He might not be the best returner on the Tour, but Karlovic will know that Stakhovsky is likely to attack the net and is not always the cleanest volleyer when he gets there.
I have to believe that is a big reason why Karlovic is able to break the Stakhovsky serve as frequently as he has in the last three matches against him. Karlovic is also likely to try and take the net away from Stakhovsky by employing the slice and following that in and I think his serve will help him through any pressure moments better than Stakhovsky's will for him.
After a couple of long sets, I am looking for Karlovic to win this one 76, 64.
Simone Bolelli - 3.5 games v Lucas Pouille: At 21 years old, Lucas Pouille still has some learning to do if he is to become a top professional on the Tour, but his World Ranking of Number 70 isn't a bad return out of 2015. Of course 2016 is all about pushing on, but this season might be over for Pouille from a mental standpoint.
A long season can take its toll on a young player at this time of the season and we saw Nick Kyrgios cut his 2014 season short with that in mind. Pouille hasn't done the same, but he has lost four matches in a row and has failed to win a set in any of those matches and also not won more than four games in any of the eight sets competed in.
The slower hard courts in Moscow make work to the favour of Simone Bolelli too although the Italian is capable on the faster surfaces too. This is already Bolelli's best season on the main Tour by a considerable distance and he has had a lot more wins than Pouille in recent weeks which should boost his confidence for this First Round match.
Bolelli has a decent serve when he is on his game and I think he is going to take down a player he has beaten three times in the last twelve months including twice this season. With his ability to play the long rallies on the clay courts, the slower conditions won't bother Bolelli here either and I think he breaks down Pouille 76, 63 over two sets.
Victor Troicki - 1.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: Both of these players have looked like they are playing out the string in this 2015 season and both Victor Troicki and Teymuraz Gabashvili can produce some really good quality tennis as well as some complete dross in the same match.
At least Troicki can say he has had a couple of wins here and there recently compared with Gabashvili, although the latter is playing at home and has a win under his belt here.
As I have said, both can go through some real fluctuations within the same match and I would not be surprised if both were to win a set in this one. However Troicki could hold the mental edge not just because of his recent form compared with Gabashvili, but has also won all four matches against Gabashvili in previous matches.
Those matches are at least four years old though so I am not sure they are relevant now, but Gabashvili hasn't looked like a player that has had too much left in tank in the last couple of weeks. I am not completely sold on Troicki's mentality having lost a couple of Grand Slam matches from 2-0 up in sets this season, but I think he comes through in three sets and has enough to cover this number.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 5.5 games v Klara Koukalova: Svetlana Kuznetsova has more ups and downs in her performances these days than she did when she won two Grand Slam titles, but I still think she is too good at home against Klara Koukalova.
All three previous matches have gone in favour of Kuznetsova although the last of those came here in Moscow last season and was cut short when Koukalova retired having lost the first set.
There has been a little more confidence coming out of recent Koukalova performances having won some more matches, albeit at a lower level than Kuznetsova would be used to. Coming through three Qualifier matches will have helped her mentally for this challenge of facing Kuznetsova, but I still believe the latter has too much in the tank for her.
The serve is not as effective as it once was, but I think Kuznetsova can protect that shot for just long enough to send the pressure on Koukalova. The latter has really struggled to match the top players for most of the season and Kuznetsova still qualifies for that criteria as a top 32 player in the World Rankings.
After a battle through the first set, I like Kuznetsova winning this one 75, 62.
MY PICKS: Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simone Bolelli - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victor Troicki - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.54 Units (4 Units Staked, - 13.5% Yield)
Tuesday, 20 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 20th)
A new week brings in a new tournament as the final WTA events of the season before the WTA Finals are played this week. The ATP events have a few players playing this week who are chasing the World Tour Finals spots remaining after Rafael Nadal and Tomas Berdych set the top six.
I am still of the belief that Andy Murray pulls out of the event in London, despite being at home, to focus on the Davis Cup Final and that means Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's run in Shanghai could be vital for him to return to the World Tour Finals. That might be the most interesting aspect left of the chase for Tour Finals, and it does look like the ninth place in the Rankings is going to be the closest battle over the last month of the season.
Pablo Cuevas - 5.5 games v Pere Riba: I am going to give Pere Riba credit for coming through the Qualifiers here considering he doesn't spend a lot of time on the hard courts. However, the speed of the courts in Moscow is not supposed to be too taxing so it might feel more like a clay court for the Spaniard and might be a reason that Riba has been able to play so well in the Qualifiers.
It won't matter too much in this First Round match against Pablo Cuevas who at least follows the Tour around and has plenty of recent hard court experience. That and the fact that Cuevas has won his four previous matches against Riba without dropping a set although the last of those was four years ago.
Cuevas has been in decent form of late with wins over the likes of Tomas Berdych and Ivo Karlovic on the hard courts and I do think he will be more comfortable despite Riba having an edge on the conditions.
This might be like a clay court match between these players on the slower surface, but it is still a hard court match and I think Cuevas' movement helps him move through with a 63, 63 win.
Albert Ramos Vinolas + 5.5 games v David Ferrer: This is an important week for David Ferrer as he looks to add the points to see off Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the race for a place in the World Tour Finals. He should have too much in the locker for Albert Ramos Vinolas, but I can't help feeling his compatriot is getting too many games in this one.
The week in Shanghai will be one that Albert Ramos Vinolas will be able to tell his grandkids about one day as he beat the great Roger Federer in three sets. It was a stunning result for Ramos Vinolas who really held his nerves in the final set, but he couldn't do the same in the decider against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the next Round.
He will need to serve well to keep Ferrer at bay in this one, although his compatriot is a very good returner and he has won all four previous matches against Ramos Vinolas. Three of those wins have come very easily, but Ferrer has had to battle much harder to win his matches since returning from his long-term lay off.
Ferrer won the title in Kuala Lumper but didn't cover this number of games once and he has only won by a wider margin in one of his last nine best of three set matches. I do worry that Ramos Vinolas will struggle to back up his week in Shanghai on the hard courts this week, but one key is he is under no pressure compared with Ferrer and I will look for him to keep this close enough to cover.
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Injuries have hurt Dominika Cibulkova's 2015 season but at least she looks like she is getting back to form and can make another huge effort for the 2016 season. Compare that to Carla Suarez Navarro who has been out of form since the French Open and who had lost eight matches in a row before getting things going again recently.
Suarez Navarro had back to back wins for the first time since June when playing in Beijing earlier this month, but this is a difficult test for her as she has lost all three previous matches to Dominika Cibulkova. That includes in Tokyo a few weeks ago and Suarez Navarro is yet to even win a set against her.
You can see why that might be the case because I think Cibulkova gets a little more out of her serve and has the movement to match the Spaniard. I also believe Cibulkova gets a little more power out of her groundstrokes and it all points to her continuing her strong run against Suarez Navarro.
A solid win over Elena Vesnina in the First Round will have given Cibulkova the edge in getting a feel for the conditions although the slower courts in Moscow will appeal to Suarez Navarro. I don't think it will matter too much and will be expecting Cibulkova to come through this one 64, 64 to match her result from Tokyo.
MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Albert Ramos Vinolas + 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Final: 10-10, - 3.74 Units (40 Units Staked, - 9.35% Yield)
Season 2015: - 5.01 Units (1692 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
I am still of the belief that Andy Murray pulls out of the event in London, despite being at home, to focus on the Davis Cup Final and that means Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's run in Shanghai could be vital for him to return to the World Tour Finals. That might be the most interesting aspect left of the chase for Tour Finals, and it does look like the ninth place in the Rankings is going to be the closest battle over the last month of the season.
Pablo Cuevas - 5.5 games v Pere Riba: I am going to give Pere Riba credit for coming through the Qualifiers here considering he doesn't spend a lot of time on the hard courts. However, the speed of the courts in Moscow is not supposed to be too taxing so it might feel more like a clay court for the Spaniard and might be a reason that Riba has been able to play so well in the Qualifiers.
It won't matter too much in this First Round match against Pablo Cuevas who at least follows the Tour around and has plenty of recent hard court experience. That and the fact that Cuevas has won his four previous matches against Riba without dropping a set although the last of those was four years ago.
Cuevas has been in decent form of late with wins over the likes of Tomas Berdych and Ivo Karlovic on the hard courts and I do think he will be more comfortable despite Riba having an edge on the conditions.
This might be like a clay court match between these players on the slower surface, but it is still a hard court match and I think Cuevas' movement helps him move through with a 63, 63 win.
Albert Ramos Vinolas + 5.5 games v David Ferrer: This is an important week for David Ferrer as he looks to add the points to see off Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the race for a place in the World Tour Finals. He should have too much in the locker for Albert Ramos Vinolas, but I can't help feeling his compatriot is getting too many games in this one.
The week in Shanghai will be one that Albert Ramos Vinolas will be able to tell his grandkids about one day as he beat the great Roger Federer in three sets. It was a stunning result for Ramos Vinolas who really held his nerves in the final set, but he couldn't do the same in the decider against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the next Round.
He will need to serve well to keep Ferrer at bay in this one, although his compatriot is a very good returner and he has won all four previous matches against Ramos Vinolas. Three of those wins have come very easily, but Ferrer has had to battle much harder to win his matches since returning from his long-term lay off.
Ferrer won the title in Kuala Lumper but didn't cover this number of games once and he has only won by a wider margin in one of his last nine best of three set matches. I do worry that Ramos Vinolas will struggle to back up his week in Shanghai on the hard courts this week, but one key is he is under no pressure compared with Ferrer and I will look for him to keep this close enough to cover.
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Injuries have hurt Dominika Cibulkova's 2015 season but at least she looks like she is getting back to form and can make another huge effort for the 2016 season. Compare that to Carla Suarez Navarro who has been out of form since the French Open and who had lost eight matches in a row before getting things going again recently.
Suarez Navarro had back to back wins for the first time since June when playing in Beijing earlier this month, but this is a difficult test for her as she has lost all three previous matches to Dominika Cibulkova. That includes in Tokyo a few weeks ago and Suarez Navarro is yet to even win a set against her.
You can see why that might be the case because I think Cibulkova gets a little more out of her serve and has the movement to match the Spaniard. I also believe Cibulkova gets a little more power out of her groundstrokes and it all points to her continuing her strong run against Suarez Navarro.
A solid win over Elena Vesnina in the First Round will have given Cibulkova the edge in getting a feel for the conditions although the slower courts in Moscow will appeal to Suarez Navarro. I don't think it will matter too much and will be expecting Cibulkova to come through this one 64, 64 to match her result from Tokyo.
MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Albert Ramos Vinolas + 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Final: 10-10, - 3.74 Units (40 Units Staked, - 9.35% Yield)
Season 2015: - 5.01 Units (1692 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
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