College Football Week 8 Picks 2023 (October 21st)

There were upsets and some closer games than expected in Week 7 of the College Football season and a few more teams have slipped from the ranks of the unbeatens.

We will have at least another knocked off this week following the Ohio State and Penn State Big Ten clash, while the controversy around the Michigan Wolverines will certainly have the rest of the College Football PlayOff chasers taking a keen interest.

Week 7 was not a good one for the Picks, but Week 8 is hopefully an opportunity to bounce back.

UCF Knights @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: Two weeks have passed since the very important win in the Red River Rivalry game and the Oklahoma Sooners (6-0) should have come off the emotional high having sat through a Bye Week. Backing up that victory over the Texas Longhorns will be the sole aim for the Oklahoma Sooners and remaining unbeaten through to the Big 12 Championship Game would mean they are amongst the favourites to reach the College Football PlayOff, even as a potential non-Champion.

That will be far from the thought process of anyone involved with the team and the focus will be on winning each game and ticking them off of the list.

Quarter Back Dillon Gabriel will certainly not be overlooking this game on deck when his current team takes on the UCF Knights (3-3), the school with which Gabriel started his College Football career. It has been a tough move into the Big 12 for the Knights who have lost all three Conference games played this season and who will be hoping the Bye Week will have given them a chance to fully analyse what went wrong in the blowout defeat to the Kansas Jayhawks.

While the Sooners are being led by their former Quarter Back, it has been a problem position for the UCF Knights this season and contributed to the poor start made to life in the Big 12. An injury to John Rhys Plumlee has meant he has thrown just SEVEN Conference passes this season, although the two week break between games has given him the time to return to training.

He could have hoped to be facing a better opponent than the much improved Sooners Defensive unit, especially as Oklahoma have carried a pass rush that is likely to get the better of the UCF Offensive Line.

However, Plumlee will be helped if the Knights can establish the run and at least keep Dillon Gabriel and the Oklahoma Offensive unit on the sidelines. Teams have been able to find a little more room against the Oklahoma Defensive Line in recent games and the Knights may be able to at least give their Quarter Back a chance to make plays from third and manageable positions on the field, although John Rhys Plumlee will need some time finding rhythm with his Receivers to expose any holes in this Sooners Secondary.

A bigger challenge than scoring points may be stopping the Sooners doing what they want when they have the ball in their own hands.

Dillon Gabriel is likely going to have a strong game again, but he should be well supported by the ground game and this should mean the Sooners are able to move the ball up and down the field pretty efficiently.

The Offensive Line have protected their Quarter Back so Gabriel should have time to attack this UCF Secondary and Oklahoma look capable of winning this one by a wide margin, even after the Texas win and the emotions that come with it. You have to believe that Dillon Gabriel will be highly motivated even with the respect he has for his former school and the Oklahoma Sooners may be able to make enough Defensive plays to end up winning by around three Touchdowns.

Oklahoma have covered in seven games in a row and the Knights have failed to cover in each of their three road games this season.

Both of these trends are likely to be extended another week at the end of this Week 8 Big 12 game.

Washington State Cougars @ Oregon Ducks Pick: Some mistakes proved to be costly for the Oregon Ducks (5-1) in their narrow road defeat to the Washington Huskies, but all is not lost for the team. The Pac-12 is a tough Conference and the Ducks will still believe they have the qualities to force their way into the Championship Game and the College Football PlayOff is not beyond them after a single loss either.

Bouncing back before a big road game at the Utah Utes has to be the focus for Oregon and they are hosting the slumping Washington State Cougars (4-2). The 1-2 record in the Pac-12 Conference is down to the fact that the Cougars have lost consecutive games with the Week 7 defeat to the Arizona Wildcats particularly hurtful.

Losing is one thing, but the Washington State Cougars were 7.5 point favourites at home in a game they were eventually beaten by 37 points.

The 4-0 start to the season was behind a very strong Offensive showing, but the Cougars are really struggling on this side of the ball in their last two losses. Now they have to face an Oregon Defensive unit that has played at a solid level for the majority of this season and it is difficult to see Washington State have a lot more success than they have had in the losses to UCLA and Arizona.

One of the main issues for the Cougars is that they have been pretty one-dimensional when it comes to the Offensive game plan. We may see more of the same with Washington State struggling to run the ball and now facing an Oregon Defensive Line that has been really strong at clamping down on the run.

It means additional pressure on Cameron Ward at Quarter Back and he has not been able to handle that very well in the back to back defeats. The Oregon Secondary has produced some strong numbers this season and they are helped by a powerful pass rush that will feel they can rattle Ward who could be having to deal with third and long situations far too often.

After the loss in Week 7, Oregon Head Coach Dan Lanning has been criticised for some of the late play-calling that ultimately cost the Ducks the win. He should be much more simple with his approach in this one with Oregon likely to have plenty of success running the ball at this Cougars Defensive Line which has allowed teams to rip off some big gains.

Oregon's Offensive Line has been very strong at helping the establish the run and they have also protected Quarter Back Bo Nix, who should be able to make plenty of big plays through the air too. With the balance on the Offensive side of the ball, Oregon are expected to have another strong showing and they should be able to put up plenty of points against this Cougars team.

The Ducks have won four in a row against Washington State, but they are only 2-2 against the spread in those wins.

With an Offensive unit that is as capable as the Cougars at their best and Oregon off a disappointing loss, the backdoor cover for the underdog might be available. However, the Ducks are 4-0 against the spread as a double digit favourite this season and they can make some big plays Defensively to back up an Offensive unit likely to score plenty of points and that should see Oregon bounce back very effectively from the loss to the Huskies.

Texas Longhorns @ Houston Cougars Pick: Losing to the Oklahoma Sooners is a bitter blow for the Texas Longhorns (5-1), but running the table and winning the Big 12 Championship Game may still be good enough to carry the team into the College Football PlayOff. That has to still be the aim for the Longhorns who were seconds away from being unbeaten heading into Week 8 of the season and the team will have likely spent the Bye Week making sure they have put enough distance mentally between the rest of this season and the loss in the Red River Rivalry game.

This is going to be a tough test for the Longhorns as they face a road game at the Houston Cougars (3-3), even if the Cougars are 1-2 in Big 12 Conference play.

Make no mistake that all associated with the Houston Cougars will have circled this game on the schedule and so the very best effort has to be expected from the players, especially at home.

Donovan Smith made the big play from Quarter Back to help the Cougars beat the West Virginia Mountaineers to earn a first Conference win and he is likely going to be important in this one too. While the Cougars Offensive Line have been able to open up some big holes for the running game, they are facing a tough Texas Defensive Line and that mean all of the pressure is on the Quarter Back to try and expose the Longhorns Secondary.

He is well protected by the Offensive Line when stepping back to throw and Donovan Smith will be able to have success in this game. However, Smith will know this perhaps the best Defensive unit he has seen this season and he will have to be careful of throwing into tight spaces and seeing the Longhorns turn the ball over.

The reality is that Donovan Smith and the Houston Offensive unit should be able to move the ball, but the pressure in this game will be on the other side of the ball and whether they can make enough stops.

Houston may not have the same balance Offensively as the Texas Longhorns are likely going to be able to bring onto the field and a predictable Offense can be that much easier to stop.

With a strong Offensive Line, the Longhorns should be able to come out and establish the run and we should see Jonathon Brooks have another strong showing from the Running Back position. Texas will know the Cougars Defensive Line have had some issues when it comes to plugging the holes up front and so Brooks should keep the team in front of the chains, which can only be good news for Quinn Ewers at Quarter Back.

Some big numbers are being produced in the passing game and Ewers should have a comfortable day throwing the ball with the team operating out of third and manageable spots. Play-action could be employed to hit the Houston Secondary down the field and the Longhorns look more than capable of scoring each time they have the ball in their hands.

Motivation for the Cougars will make them dangerous, but the Longhorns are being targeted by all of the teams in the Big 12 as one of two schools ready to depart for the SEC. Despite that, Texas are still winning plenty of games by wide margins and the Longhorns have covered in each of their last four games following a loss.

It should be a high-scoring game, but one or two turnovers could see Texas move away from the Houston Cougars and cover what is a very big number.

Virginia Cavaliers @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: The numbers of the unbeaten teams in College Football took another hit last week, although the North Carolina Tar Heels (6-0) are still amongst them. Keeping that going would mean a place in the ACC Championship Game, which is the least expected from the Tar Heels after the start made to this season, while winning the Conference as an unbeaten team would mean a place in the College Football PlayOff.

After beating the Miami Hurricanes, the North Carolina Tar Heels are big favourites to beat the Virginia Cavaliers (1-5) who are coming in off a Bye Week, but who have lost both Conference games played.

This is a big step up from the overall level of competition that the Cavaliers have faced this season and yet they have struggled already. Virginia were blown out by the Maryland Terrapins in a non-Conference game and their last game at North Carolina ended in a 20 point defeat two years ago with the two teams operating at very different levels in 2023.

Tony Muskett and the Cavaliers Offensive unit are going to have a tough time moving the ball with consistency against this Tar Heels team. The Quarter Back will need to be playing at his best to do so with the Virginia Offensive Line likely going to struggle to establish the run against this Tar Heels Defense.

The pressure will be all around Muskett if the Cavaliers are in third and long situations and the Quarter Back has to be very aware of the ball-hawking abilities of this North Carolina Secondary. In recent games turnovers have helped the Tar Heels remain unbeaten and they will certainly feel they can tempt Tony Muskett into a mistake or two if he is having to throw the ball to keep the chains moving.

It will feel much different when North Carolina have the ball thanks to Drake Maye and this strong Offensive unit that has been powering the unbeaten start to the season. A lot of attention will be paid to the Quarter Back, but this is a game in which the Tar Heels Offensive Line will be able to open up some big holes for the ground attack and that should mean Drake Maye is comfortable when he does step back to throw the ball.

A limited pass rush means Maye will likely be playing with plenty of time in the pocket anyway, but establishing the run will just make things that much easier for him. Turnovers could be an issue when it comes to covering a line as big as this one, although the time and down and distance is in favour of Drake Maye and that should see him keep the team moving up and down the field.

You cannot ignore the poor record that the Tar Heels have had as a double digit favourite since the start of last season, and they are playing after an important win. However, there is a real rivalry with Virginia and that should keep the team focused, while the home crowd are not likely to allow the Tar Heels to step off the gas as they look to put an impressive win on the board that could keep the PlayOff Committee firmly focused on North Carolina.

Both Tennessee and Maryland have crushed Virginia at home this season and North Carolina are arguably better than both- the Cavaliers have just not been impressive this season and it could lead to a big win for the Tar Heels.

MY PICKS: Oklahoma Sooners - 17 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 19.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 23 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

North Carolina Tar Heels - 23.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 5.5 Points @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Iowa Hawkeyes - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

TCU Horned Frogs + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Florida State Seminoles - 14 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- Jack Catterall vs Jorge Linares (October 21st)

Prior to an injury to Dan Azeez, this looked to be a big weekend in the Light Heavyweight Division for British Boxing fans.

The hope is that the Joshua Buatsi vs Azeez fight can be rearranged before the end of this calendar year, but it does remove what looked to be the best fight of the weekend. Boxxer have kept the show going by moving from the O2 Arena to York Hall and with a solid Cruiserweight domestic clash main eventing instead.

There is also a double header from the United Kingdom and United States on DAZN as we begin to see some contenders emerge in the Light Welterweight and Welterweight Divisions.

Jack Catterall vs Jorge Linares

In another universe, Jack Catterall would perhaps be the defending Undisputed Light Welterweight Champion of the world who is preparing for a huge fight against Devin Haney later in the year.

However, in ours, the British fighter has yet to fight his way back into a position to challenge for the World Titles after controversially losing a Decision to Josh Taylor in February 2022. The potential rematch fell through a number of times and has forced inactivity on Jack Catterall and he is only going to be involved in his second fight since that defeat and still looks some way away from having another crack at winning the fragmented titles in the 140 pound Division.

Since that loss to Taylor, Jack Catterall has linked up with Eddie Hearn and Matchroom and he was a comfortable winner over Darragh Foley in his debut for his new promoter back in May. There is no doubting that Catterall needs to be more active and so a relatively quick return has been made, and he is going to be a big favourite to see off faded veteran Jorge Linares.

The 38 year old has had plenty of exciting, happy nights in England, but Jorge Linares has lost three in a row and was back at the Lightweight limit in recent outings. He has made one brief stop in the Light Welterweight Division, but that ended really badly for Jorge Linares who was Stopped in the First Round by Pablo Cesar Cano and it does feel the Venezuelan has been asked to head to Liverpool in a bid to give Jack Catterall every chance to impress.

His naturally bigger size and being the fresher fighter gives Jack Catterall a big edge in this bout.

Jorge Linares might throw caution to the wind knowing this is his last big opportunity in all likelihood, but it will be tough to steer clear of the Catterall counters. The British fighter will be urged to get forward once the early Linares threat is extinguished and it feels like the promoter has put this fight together to build some momentum behind Jack Catterall who can force the Stoppage.

There is every hope that the Mikael Lawal vs Isaac Chamberlain headliner at York Hall could be a real banger, but the oddsmakers look to have got it about right with the prices.

Instead the other selection from the day will come from the late show being broadcasted by DAZN from the United States.

Alexis Rocha and Giovani Santillan are in a loaded Welterweight Division, but one that could look really different in the months ahead.

Terence Crawford and Errol Spence Jr may meet one more time for the Undisputed World Titles, but both are soon expected to look for new challenges at Light Middleweight.

We already have Interim World Champions with the IBF and WBC and a Regular WBA World Champion, but the winner of this one could very much be in line to compete for any vacant WBO World Title in the months ahead.

That means there is plenty on the line for two American fighters who have a single loss between them.

It was a loss suffered by Alexis Rocha, but he has bounced back to win seven fights in a row since the setback against Rashidi Ellis and five of those have been in Stoppages. The win over Blair Cobbs is the one that stands out the most for Rocha and he looks to be the bigger, stronger fighter in this one.

In a potential firefight, those are attributes that could stand out, although the resiliency of Giovani Santillan has to be respected.

He is also unbeaten, which will give Santillan more confidence, but this looks a step up that may be one too far and Alexis Rocha can come through a fun fight.

MY PICKS: Jack Catterall to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Alexis Rocha to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.75 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 49-85, - 16.37 Units (247 Units Staked, - 6.63% Yield)

NFL Week 7 Picks 2018 (October 18-22)

The NFL continues through another week and we are almost at the half way mark of the 2018 season which means the importance of games ramps up significantly.

Playing really well in September is not as important as getting the some momentum going in November and December and there are many teams who can stumble in the early weeks and then begin to live up, or down, the expectation levels of that team.

You've got to be careful that you are not overreacting to one result in one week and that goes for the players too.


Week 6 was a mixed bag for the NFL Picks, but the season remains in a strong position.

Week 7 has the second of the three London games being played this season, which is the early kick off on Sunday, and the Picks can be seen below.


MY PICKS: Los Angeles Chargers - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 7 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 4 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 3 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 2.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New York Giants + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

WTA Finals Day 1 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 21st)

The 2018 season is on the verge of being completed with for the WTA Tour as the top eight players in the world meet in Singapore in the WTA Finals.

Both Simona Halep and Serena Williams have ended their own seasons early so won't be involved in the WTA Finals, but this looks a competitive field and it is wide open for any of the eight players to hit form and win the title.

The ATP Tour still has a few more weeks to play before that Tour also comes to a close for 2018 and there are two big tournaments in Basel and Vienna which will be played this week. There are still some places up for grabs at the ATP World Tour Finals so the last couple of weeks are very important to those players searching for a spot in London to end the 2018 season.


The WTA Finals are beginning on Sunday and I have just one pick from the two matches set to be played.

I will have fuller analysis during the week, but for today I am simply writing down the one pick and also updating the 2018 season records.


MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2018: + 45.52 Units (1671 Units Staked, + 2.72% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (October 20-22)

The second international break of the 2018/19 season has come to an end and we now have another month of big Football matches to come both domestically and in Europe.

There are four Rounds of Premier League Football to come between the two international breaks in October and November, while two Rounds of Champions League and Europa League Group Stage matches will begin to separate those teams making it through to the Knock Out Rounds and those who are going to be left disappointed.

It is a big time for clubs as the season settles into a rhythm and there are big games right out of the international break with ramifications at the top and bottom of the Premier League.


I have written a short piece about Manchester United and the win over Newcastle United which may have done little more than paper over the obvious cracks at Old Trafford. You can read that here.


Earlier this season I mentioned I was going to start adding Fantasy Notes to the selections made in the Premier League each round of games played.

I have decided I will pick who I believe will be the 'Fantasy Star' for each fixture and also an alternative selection.

I am still fine-tuning how I want to this to work going forward, but at the moment the 'Star' will be the player I believe can pick up the most points and bonus points from the official Premier League Fantasy Game .

The alternative selection will be a player who I think can have a positive return from each fixture, but bare with me as I look to find the best way to approach the increasingly popular Fantasy element.


Chelsea v Manchester United Pick: The noise around Jose Mourinho would have been deafening over the last two weeks if Manchester United had not turned around their Premier League game with Newcastle United and come away with a win after trailing 0-2 inside ten minutes.

Some may look to the result as the chance for Manchester United to turn the corner on what has been a very difficult start to the season, but personally I can't help feel it is nothing more than papering over significant cracks at the club.

The games between the October and November international breaks will tell us a lot about where Manchester United stand as they face Premier League trips to Chelsea and Manchester City as well as a Champions League double header with Juventus.

With 5 points already between Manchester United and the top four it is a big month ahead and this looks a very difficult away game facing them as they come out of the international break.

Chelsea have joined Manchester City and Liverpool on 20 points after a very positive start under Maurizio Sarri and they look to have the best Premier League player in their side. Eden Hazard may have stated his wishes to play under Mourinho again, but he could put another nail in the coffin of the manager at Manchester United with a big performance on Saturday.

As much as I would like to be wrong, it is very difficult to see anything but a Chelsea win on Saturday having beaten Manchester United 3 times in a row at Stamford Bridge while Jose Mourinho has managed the latter. Manchester United haven't scored in any of those trips to this part of West London and I am not convinced that things are all good and proper after one win.

The home team have been creating plenty of chances and showed in two games against Liverpool that they are capable of playing very well against the better teams in the Premier League. If Manchester United are even half as poor defensively as they were against West Ham United and Newcastle United in recent League games I do really worry for them here and the only suggestion for this game is backing Chelsea to win a game featuring two or more goals.

Manchester United have conceded three times in losses at Brighton and West Ham United away from home as well as the same number in a home loss to Tottenham Hotspur. Add in the fact that a goal shy Newcastle United scored twice against Manchester United and could have had more and I just can't see the side containing Chelsea here.

Fantasy Star: Eden Hazard- Arguably the best player in the Premier League and scored the winning goal in the FA Cup Final against Manchester United. All good things from Chelsea are going through the Belgian.

Alternative: David Luiz- a key figure at centre half for Chelsea who have kept clean sheets in all 3 games against Jose Mourinho's Manchester United at Stamford Bridge. Potential free-kick taker too.


Bournemouth v Southampton Pick: You can't be anything but impressed with the start made by Bournemouth to the new Premier League season and any fears they would be dragged into a relegation battle have to be easing in each passing week.

They can take another big step towards the 40 point mark this weekend and that will still be the aim for Eddie Howe who knows how important it is to keep Bournemouth in the Premier League. However the start made to the season means Howe can also put some stock into giving Bournemouth a real shot at winning one of the Cup competitions.

For now the concentration will be on trying to win this derby game against a Southampton team who have not scored in their last 3 Premier League games.

Mark Hughes has to be feeling some pressure with the owners of Southampton unlikely to accept another battle against relegation from the top flight. The poor run of form in the League has seen Southampton slump to just outside the bottom three, but there is still something to like about a team that has the likes of Charlie Austin and Danny Ings to score the goals to fire them up the table.

I do think Southampton can create chances here against this Bournemouth defence which is anything but watertight. On the other hand it would be a surprise if the attacking football used by Eddie Howe doesn't pay dividends up the other end too and the amount of goals Bournemouth have been scoring makes them very dangerous.

Both teams look capable of hurting the other and I do believe we will see goals in this League game.

I give Bournemouth the slight edge in the fixture on Saturday, but they don't look like a team that will be keeping a lot of clean sheets. With the chances Southampton have been able to fashion I think they can score here and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in this fixture.

Fantasy Star: Callum Wilson- both Ryan Fraser and Josh King are carrying knocks, but Bournemouth score plenty of goals and Callum Wilson is pushing for an England call up.

Alternative: Danny Ings- Southampton have been better away from home and Danny Ings likely leading the line against an opponent who are far from defensively secure.


Cardiff City v Fulham Pick: To call a fixture a relegation six pointer in the middle of October is perhaps overstating things, but you have to feel this is a very important fixture for both Cardiff City and Fulham.

After promotion from the Championship, both clubs have struggled in the Premier League and I would be surprised if both of these teams were good enough to avoid the drop back down a level.

That could mean that the two League games between Cardiff City and Fulham are going to be all important in determining which of the teams is able to finish out of the bottom three positions. I do think both Neil Warnock and Slavisa Jokanovic will understand how imperative it is for their respective teams to come out of the international break with a big positive result and I think it could be a game filled with some real tension.

Despite that I do think the players will be able to express themselves and create chances to score goals.

Cardiff City have been a little goal-shy this season but they have created some big chances and a little more composure is all they have needed. They should be able to create more against a Fulham defence that has been looking extremely vulnerable as they try and find the balance between attack and defence in the move up to the Premier League level.

On the other side I also believe Fulham can create chances as they have in the majority of their League games so far. There are some talented players who like to get forward and Cardiff City have conceded at least twice in their last 4 games at home in all competitions.

Last season they shared out six goals here in a League fixture and I think the two teams will create chances and score goals in this one. The 1-1 is a potentially concerning score, but neither Cardiff City or Fulham have defended anywhere near to the level they would have liked and the points on offer should see the teams take risks to win this one.

Fantasy Star: Kenneth Zohore- Cardiff City have struggled in front of goal, but they are creating chances and Kenneth Zohore may be the best striker they have.

Alternative: Ryan Sessegnon- it hasn't been the introduction to the Premier League Sessegnon would have wanted, but Fulham play attacking football and he did score home and away against Cardiff City last season.


Manchester City v Burnley Pick: If Riyad Mahrez had scored his penalty at Anfield two weeks go Manchester City would have been a short priced favourite to retain the Premier League title they won last season.

Instead Mahrez blazed over the bar and that means there are three teams tied together on 20 points with Manchester City leading the way on goal difference. They might have been knocked off top spot by the time this game kicks off on Saturday afternoon, but Pep Guardiola won't be worrying about the League table and instead looking to get the best out of his players.

The squad looks to be getting healthier, but there is always a question mark as to how teams will react out of an international break.

In saying that I would be very surprised if Manchester City can't get the better of a Burnley team whose results have picked up but who have yet to really hit the heights in terms of performances that they did last season.

Teams are creating a lot of chances against Burnley and that would be a real worry for me if I was a fan of the club. All credit has to be given to Burnley for finding a way to pick up points in games where they have not been at their best, but they will have to be ten times better defensively to keep Manchester City at bay.

Manchester City potentially have Kevin De Bruyne back this week to offer an additional threat to opponents and they have already been creating a host of chances in games they have played in recent weeks. Pep Guardiola has not always been happy with the lack of composure shown in the final third, but Manchester City look like a team who will score plenty of goals even if they are not taking all of the chances that come their way.

Last season Manchester City beat a confident and more solid Burnley team by three goal margins in both the Premier League and FA Cup games they hosted against them. With this current Burnley team offering up a lot of chances to opponents, they are going to need Joe Hart to want to prove something to his former club to keep Manchester City at bay.

I simply don't know if Hart will be able to do that and I will back the home team to cover a big Asian Handicap.

Fantasy Star: Sergio Aguero- strong record against Burnley and been well rested the last two weeks and ready to lead the line for Manchester City. Seems an obvious choice.

Alternative: Benjamin Mendy- Fabian Delph has been ruled out so Mendy wil likely have the left back spot and is good for an assist or two in this attacking line up. Bonus is the potential for a clean sheet too. 


Newcastle United v Brighton Pick: This looks to be one of the more intriguing Premier League games of the weekend as Newcastle United try and earn their first win of the season against what is likely to be a relegation rival.

It has been a very difficult start for Newcastle United, but that always looked like it could be the case when you consider they have already played five of the teams that finished in the top six last season. The home defeat to Leicester City would have hurt, but Newcastle United are about to enter into a much more positive set of fixtures for them.

Confidence is going to be a big factor for Newcastle United, but I was impressed with the way they approached their game at Manchester United two weeks ago. Like manager Rafa Benitez said after the defeat, I do think Newcastle United can win plenty of games against the lesser lights in the Premier League if they can match the intensity they showed at Old Trafford.

However playing with that intensity in a nothing to lose situation against Manchester United is different than when the expectation will be on the players to perform. That is going to be the case against a Brighton team who have been very poor travellers since being promoted to the Premier League.

You have to think Chris Hughton is going to look for his team to be well organised and difficult to break down. He will believe his Brighton team can do enough damage from set pieces and the counter attack to hurt Newcastle United, but The Seagulls are simply not as strong away from home as they are at the Amex Stadium.

Last season there were two tight games played out by these teams and I do think we will see something similar here where one goal could be enough to win the game.

6 of the last 7 between these teams has seen at least one of the teams fail to score and that will be my selection from this Premier League game.

Fantasy Star: Kenedy- scored at Old Trafford and could be the key to unlocking the Brighton defence in this fixture.

Alternative: Martin Dubravka- Newcastle United have not been as strong defensively as they would have liked, but the fixture list has been about as tough as it comes. The goalkeeper could be a key reason for a second clean sheet this season.


West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Both West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur have to consider the start to the 2018/19 season to be a mixed one for the clubs as they get set for the first of two meetings in October.

Later this month the teams will meet again in the League Cup Fourth Round but the Premier League clash will likely be more important for both Manuel Pellegrini and Mauricio Pochettino.

Injuries are really hurting both squads, but I think West Ham United are the more settled of the two teams with the potential absence of both Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen a real blow for Tottenham Hotspur.

Tottenham Hotspur have won 3 League games in a row despite the injuries in the squad, but they have not been overly convincing against Brighton, Huddersfield Town and Cardiff City. This is expected to be a tougher challenge than against those teams especially as West Ham United have recently held Chelsea and beaten Manchester United at the London Stadium.

The Hammers have been producing a much more consistent attacking threat over the last six weeks and I think that can be key against a London rival that the fans will love to get one over. Last season Tottenham Hotspur did win 2-3 here, but they had previously lost 3 of 4 visits to West Ham United and I think the healthy start with the home team on the Asian Handicap can't be ignored.

I am surprised to see Tottenham Hotspur as an odds on favourite to win at a ground where two big teams have already stumbled this season. West Ham United have the kind of players who can step up their level against better teams and backing the home team with the start looks the call here.

Fantasy Star: Marko Arnautovic- the home team play much better against better opposition and the Austrian is a key to that having scored for his country during the internationals.

Alternative: Christian Eriksen- the Dane is expected back this week and Tottenham Hotspur have missed him. If they are to win here Christian Eriksen will be the key to it.


Wolves v Watford Pick: There is so much to admire about the way Wolves have gone about their business in the Premier League and the layers clearly agree by having them at odds on to win this fixture.

That has been the case in home games against Burnley and Southampton too and Wolves have not disappointed with victories in both while keeping clean sheets. Both have been deserved wins as Wolves have just been guilty of perhaps lacking some composure in the final third which has prevented those victories coming by big margins.

That could be a real problem for Watford who are going to be missing three key defenders for this trip to the Midlands. They are coming off an embarrassing 0-4 home defeat to Bournemouth which saw Watford trailing 0-3 by half time, but for the most part Watford have been playing with some confidence and with some quality football produced.

Watford have not won any of their last 5 games in all competitions and they have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games. Some of those have been a little unfortunate, but Watford have just been struggling defensively as opponents have been able to create some quality chances against them.

This Wolves team should be able to do the same with the intensity and attacking quality they have produced at Molineux. They do need to produce a little more composure in the final third to make life a little easier for themselves, but I think Wolves can do that against a Watford team missing key defenders and I will back them to win and cover the Asian Handicap in this one.

Fantasy Star: Raul Jimenez- he has been influential in Wolves' start to the season and it really feels a matter of time before Raul Jimenez grabs himself a brace with the chances this team create.

Alternative: Matt Doherty- the wing back has been a key reason Wolves are able to create the chances mentioned. He scored last time out at Crystal Palace and could be good for assists and/or a clean sheet.


Huddersfield Town v Liverpool Pick: Jurgen Klopp had been bemoaning the international break after the draw with Manchester City and his mood won't have been improved when news came back that a number of his key players have suffered knocks.

It sounds like Virgil Van Dijk, Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane have avoided long-term problems, although Mane could miss out on Saturday's trip to Huddersfield Town.

Liverpool may not have won any of their last 4 games in all competitions, but it is not something their fans will be overly concerned about. They still have 20 points on the board to be level with Manchester City for the Premier League lead, but Liverpool could point to a much tougher fixture list than their rivals have played.

Now the fixture list looks to ease up for them and Liverpool should be far too good for a Huddersfield Town team who have struggled for goals and already suffered fairly comfortable losses to Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur at home.

Huddersfield Town have not scored in any of their last 6 home games in the Premier League and the style of play should be one that Liverpool are comfortable dealing with. That proved to be the case last season as Liverpool won both League games by the same 3-0 scoreline and I think it would be some surprise if Liverpool are not able to win here.

I think it could be more comfortable than that with Liverpool likely to match the margins both Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur secured here by winning by at least two goals. Backing Liverpool on the Asian Handicap to do that is the selection as Liverpool get back to winning ways ahead of another busy week for the club.

Fantasy Star: Roberto Firmino- two of the front three were banged up on international duty but are not expected to miss out this weekend. However I will pick Roberto Firmino who scored at home and away against Huddersfield Town last season.

Alternative: Andrew Robertson- clean sheet possibility and an attacking intent from left back could see the Scottish captain find an assist too. Joe Gomez or Trent Alexander-Arnold are cheaper options in the defence, but could be one or the other this weekend.


Everton v Crystal Palace Pick: The television cameras head to Goodison Park on Sunday for a game between two clubs who will be expecting top half Premier League finishes but who have perhaps underachieved to open the season.

All of the momentum had been with Everton going into the international break as they won back to back League games while Crystal Palace had lost consecutive League games.

There has to be a little concern from Roy Hodgson that his team are not scoring as many goals as he would like and they are about to head into a four game stretch where they will play teams that finished in the top six last season.

Christian Benteke may not have been prolific for Crystal Palace over the last fifteen months, but he offers a focal point to the attack and his absence has been notable. Wilfried Zaha continues to play at a good level, but I do think he is more effective with someone like Benteke in the team and only Huddersfield Town and Cardiff City have scored fewer goals than Crystal Palace.

Everton's defensive issues may offer more chances to The Eagles, but Marco Silva's attacking intentions as a manager has also made them dangerous going forward. The side are creating plenty of chances in recent games and Everton will feel they can do the same against this Crystal Palace team despite the fact that Roy Hodgson's men have been pretty good defensively for the most part this season.

I do think Everton will get the better of Crystal Palace in this fixture and they can make it back to back home wins over their visitors having beaten them 3-1 here last season. There should be enough of an attacking threat from Everton to be able to score twice and that may not be easy for Crystal Palace to match considering their own issues in front of goal.

In their last away League game Crystal Palace struggled to contain Bournemouth and I will back Everton to win a game featuring two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: Richarlison- I like Everton's chances this weekend and the Brazilian can continue his early season form by being influential to that outcome.

Alternative: Gylfi Sigurdsson- he might be a little more expensive in the Fantasy game, but Sigurdsson has got four in four for Everton and is always a threat from set pieces.


Arsenal v Leicester City Pick: Any time a team puts together a 9 game winning run in all competitions they have to be respected and you can guarantee the players are excited about going to work.

That is what Arsenal are enjoying right now and it is going to be tough for Leicester City to slow them down, but I do think The Gunners have not been as strong as their results would indicate.

Where Arsenal have been enjoying success is the clinical finishing they have been producing in front of goal. They have some quality attacking players who are making sure that any chances are being gobbled up and that is something that may continue against Leicester City who have not been good enough defensively for Claude Puel's liking.

I do think Arsenal will produce some quality going forward, but Leicester City have to feel there are holes to expose the other way. The home team could be missing some key defenders and they have already been giving up some big chances to opponents but Arsenal have not been punished as they perhaps should have been.

Leicester City will feel they can be more clinical than some of the other clubs that Arsenal have played of late and that confidence will come from scoring at least twice in 3 straight away Premier League games. They also scored at Manchester United and have narrow losses to the 20 time English Champions and also to Liverpool this season.

In both games Leicester City have been competitive and I think they will cause Arsenal some real problems on Monday Night Football so getting the hook with the visitors on the Asian Handicap looks a good way to back a selection from this League game.

A one goal loss for Leicester City would still be a winner in that case and that will mean respecting the fact The Foxes have such a terrible record in this part of North London.

Leicester City may have lost 11 straight League games at Arsenal, but the last 5 of those have come by a single goal margin. Arsenal have needed to score in the 85th minute or later to win their last 3 at home against Leicester City and last season it was Leicester City who had been leading 2-3 here until the 83rd minute in a 4-3 defeat.

All credit has to be given to Arsenal for their strong run since the Chelsea loss in August, but Leicester City will have their chances here and I think they have enough in the final third to make sure they keep this game competitive.

Fantasy Star: Alexandre Lacazette- five consecutive League starts for Arsenal and has got three in three for The Gunners. Leads the line for a team who create plenty of chances.

Alternative: Jamie Vardy- well rested having called time on his England career and facing a team who have given up big chances defensively. The big threat for Leicester City who scored three times for them against Arsenal last season and a penalty taker too.

MY PICKS: Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Fred (0 Units)
Bournemouth-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cardiff City-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Brighton Both Teams to Score- No @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Wolves - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Everton & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.30 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Leicester City + 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

October Update: 14-13-1, + 1.32 Units (56 Units Staked, + 2.36% Yield)

College Football Week 8 Picks 2017 (October 21st)

What can you say about a wacky College Football season?

The Clemson Tigers and Washington Huskies became two more of the favoured teams to drop games which also means the door has been opened to other schools for a potential Play Off spot and the upsets continue to come at a remarkable rate.

In fact the only team you can really believe in going into Week 8 of the College Football season has to be the Alabama Crimson Tide, although they may have a big test looming if the Georgia Bulldogs can continue to pile up the wins.

Even with that in mind, I can't see a situation developing where the Crimson Tide don't make the Play Offs again, but picking the other three teams is very, very tough.

In Week 8 we do have some games which will begin to separate out the contenders from the pretenders and one of those is coming in South Bend where the Notre Dame Fighting Irish host the USC Trojans. Both already have one loss on the schedule and I don't think a two loss team makes the final four so the pressure on those teams is immense.

There are plenty of Conference games where teams try to play spoiler for others who may have some real Play Off ambitions and I would not be surprised if the final four teams sees either the SEC or the Big Ten providing two of the four teams. Things can change so quickly in College Football that I couldn't possibly guarantee that, but the season has developed to set that up with Alabama, Georgia, Penn State and Ohio State all looking good at the moment.

We have seen the committee are not afraid to put in a team that doesn't even play in the Conference Championship Game as they did with Ohio State last season, and the way others are falling down all around the nation suggests that may be the case again this season.

The answer will come in the weeks ahead as we move into Week 8 and I have my College Football Picks below.


Iowa State Cyclones @ Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick: Figuring out who will be playing in the Big 12 Championship Game is no easy task when you see how many of the teams have been performing above the expectation levels. Two of those meet in Week 8 as the Texas Tech Red Raiders host the Iowa State Cyclones although the Red Raiders went down to West Virginia in Week 7 which might prevent them from really challenging for a top two spot.

I would not be surprised if a two loss team in this Conference managed to make the Championship Game with so many of the teams capable on their day, but that makes this a really important game for both the Red Raiders and Cyclones who don't have room for another setback.

The momentum does seem to be with the Cyclones who have beaten Oklahoma and followed that up with a convincing win over the Kansas Jayhawks last time out. Iowa State will feel confident off those wins although Texas Tech are playing with revenge having been embarrassed on the road against the Cyclones in the 2016 season.

The last time these two teams met here saw the Cyclones blown out so I do think there is some motivation for both teams to perform and perhaps make a surprise appearance in the Championship Game. I don't really believe either will, but Week 8 gives one of them a chance to put some momentum behind them with a victory ahead of some bigger tests.

Iowa State have a glaring weakness in that they have been unable to run the ball with any consistency on the Offense and that is likely to come back and haunt them at some point this season. They certainly are not expecting a lot of room up front in this one which means they are having to lean on Kyle Kempt at Quarter Back perhaps more than they would have liked.

Kempt is in for the injured Jacob Park, but he has not had the Iowa State Cyclones missing their starting Quarter Back. Instead this has been a very solid couple of appearances from Kempt including in the upset of Oklahoma and he could have another big game against the Red Raiders Secondary who have given up far too many big plays.

However being able to stop the run means the Red Raiders know what is coming from the Cyclones when they are pushed into third and long spots and Texas Tech have been strong at getting to the Quarter Back. They should have success against a Cyclones Offensive Line that has had its problems in pass protection and run blocking and that may stall a couple of Cyclones drives that gives Texas Tech the edge.

The Red Raiders certainly have an Offensive unit that will cause problems for Big 12 Defenses as they showed in the defeat to West Virginia when mistakes cost them. Texas Tech actually earned more yards than the Mountaineers, but this might be a big challenge for them against an under-rated Defensive unit of Iowa State.

Despite playing three Big 12 Offenses including Texas and Oklahoma, the Cyclones Defensive Line have been stout to say the least and they will feel they can get the better of the Texas Tech Offensive Line. Iowa State have held teams to just 3.3 yards per carry over their last three games and all of their success begins up front.

The Secondary have also upped their game in helping the Cyclones perform as well as they have been although that unit will be tested by Nic Shimonek at Quarter Back who has helped his team average over 375 passing yards per game. He also has 18 Touchdown passes to 4 Interceptions so is clearly a very capable Quarter Back in this system, although Iowa State's Secondary have shown they can compete with the best QBs they face.

While it would be almost impossible to shut down the 'Air Raid' Offense completely, the Cyclones certainly can get enough success to at least make the points they are receiving very competitive. Both teams have been very good against the spread this season, but this start looks a big on when you think how well the Iowa State Defensive unit have played.

The underdog is also 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in this series and I will back the road underdog to cover in this one.


Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Longhorns Pick: Tom Herman and the Texas Longhorns were disappointed they could not quite get over the hump and beat the Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry game in Week 7. There is every chance the Longhorns could get another crack at the Sooners, but Herman knows they have to be fully focused in another tough game in Week 8 when they host the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

You can almost say that the losing team in Week 8 are likely to be out of contention for a spot in the Championship Game in this Conference as both the Longhorns and Cowboys have a loss on their record. However a defeat in Week 8 would mean they have two losses to teams above them in the standings and that would be a too big a mountain to overcome.

That adds pressure to what is still a rivalry game if not quite up to the scale of the Texas-Oklahoma one. The Longhorns have generally been able to pick themselves up after the Red River Rivalry game is in the books as they have gone an incredible 18-1 in their next game, although the one loss did come to Oklahoma State in 2011.

Like many games between the best teams, the stronger team at the line of scrimmage is likely to have an edge and you may just lean towards Oklahoma State on both sides of the ball when you look at the Lines. Having Sam Ehlinger at Quarter Back has given the Longhorns the chance to at least find a better running game which is an area they have struggled though, and that may just even things up for the Longhorns.

Ehlinger is more than a capable passer too and that means the Cowboys Linebackers can't just sell out to spy the Quarter Back and allow big plays to go over their head. The Cowboys have been decent up front, but they have not been able to find a consistent pass rush and there are holes in the Secondary which can be exploited which means the Longhorns have a chance for the upset.

I do have faith the Longhorns can perform in a shoot out, but they would much prefer to see the Defensive unit pick up their play against the likes of Mason Rudolph, James Washington and Justice Hill. The triplets in the three skill positions makes the Cowboys a real contender to win any game they play, but Hill might have the least success against the Longhorns Defensive Line which has played the run fairly effectively.

The bigger concern for Texas is dealing with Rudolph and Washington who must believe they can make some very big plays against this Secondary. While the Longhorns have been guilty of allowing some big passing numbers all season, they have recently begun to get more pressure up front which may at least rattle Rudolph or put the timing out of sync.

That pressure has seen the Secondary pull in some Interceptions and one of the criticisms of Rudolph has to be the recent Interceptions which has handed out. Creating turnovers and winning that battle will certainly give the Longhorns a chance of at least keeping this one competitive and this is another game where I like taking the points with the underdog.

Texas are 3-0-1 against the spread as the home underdog over the last two seasons and this team will be well aware they are being written off. Houston were also 2-0 against the spread as the home underdog under Tom Herman, while the Cowboys are no sure thing as a road favourite in recent years including failing to cover in a win over Texas Tech a few weeks ago.

I have to respect that the Cowboys have gotten the better of the Longhorns in recent games in the series, but I will back Texas with the points here and look for them to keep this one close.


Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: It is going to be a lot of fun working out which team is going to represent the Big Ten East in the Conference Championship Game with three teams who have won at least three Conference games and remain unbeaten. One of those return home this week as the Michigan State Spartans come off back to back road wins at Michigan and Minnesota, while the expectation is they can continue the roll against the Indiana Hoosiers who have lost all three Conference games.

The feeling for the Spartans will be that they may be picking the bones of an Indiana team who dropped their last game in Overtime against the Michigan Wolverines last week. Those body blows can be very telling in the College Football ranks as players perhaps start concentrating on matters off the football field, but you have to think there is motivation in wanting to play spoiler for the Hoosiers.

However that will be matched by the revenge Michigan State will have in mind after dropping a game to the Hoosiers in 2016 on their way to a really poor 3-9 season. The Spartans look much better this time around though, but I still have some question marks around their team and how good they actually are.

Those will likely be answered when Michigan State face Penn State and Ohio State in early November in back to back games, but I still think Indiana deserve some respect in this one. The Hoosiers have underachieved and all three Conference losses have come against the big schools in the East, but they were competitive enough last week to have been given a shot in the arm to take to East Lansing.

Indiana made the decision to move to Peyton Ramsay at Quarter Back and he made some positive moves in his opening start against the Michigan Wolverines which will give Indiana encouragement. This week the test is no easier for Ramsay who takes on the Spartans Defensive unit that have been playing at a really high level.

A lot will depend on the young Quarter Back because it is going to very difficult for the Hoosiers to find any running room to keep the Offensive unit in third and manageable spots. The Offensive Line is also going to be challenged in pass protection as well as run blocking and that could make it a tough day for them to score a lot of points.

Scoring a lot of points would not really be the game plan anyway, but Ramsay has to play smart football and prevent the turnovers which can be back breaking for any team. He did throw 2 Interceptions before rallying against the Wolverines last week, but Ramsay has to show he has learned from that, while it does have to be said that the Spartans Secondary have a few more holes than the Michigan one which could see the young Quarter Back have a little more success.

The key to this game may actually come on the other side of the ball as the Indiana Defensive unit have been playing pretty well themselves. Brian Lewerke has not been asked to throw the ball as much as he would have liked in poor conditions the last couple of weeks, but the Spartans may need him more as Indiana have been stout up front and also been making big plays in the Secondary.

It won't be easy for LJ Scott to follow up his big effort on the ground against Minnesota against a Defensive Line who have allowed just 3.6 yards per carry over their last three games. That Line has played well all season and the numbers from the Hoosiers across the board look strong when considering they have played Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State already.

Indiana's Defensive unit can keep them in this game and anticipating a low scoring game means the points given to the Hoosiers look more appealing. The public are all over the Spartans because this is under a converted Touchdown in terms of the line, but I think the home team may be a touch overrated on a couple of their wins and I am expecting a regression to the mean from them.

You can't hide from the fact that Indiana are 0-6 against the spread in their last six visits to Michigan State, but I am not looking for a high scoring game and that should mean Indiana can make enough plays to keep this one close to the end.


Illinois Fighting Illini @ Minnesota Golden Gophers Pick: While neither the Minnesota Golden Gophers nor the Illinois Fighting Illini are going to be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game, this could be a very important game when it comes to determine Bowl eligibility going forward. Minnesota have three wins and Illinois have two wins, but both have lost at least three games in a row as the Conference games have proved much tougher than the non-Conference slate.

Out of the two teams it may be the Fighting Illini who feel a little hard done by having earned more yards than their last two opponents, but Lovie Smith also has to be feeling the pressure in his second year as Head Coach. I doubt Smith is moved on at the end of this season, but Illinois will be expecting much improved performances in 2018 and the Head Coach will want to show some of those off this season.

Getting into a Bowl Game can be important for teams with new Head Coaches with the extra practices they will earn and that is the motivation for both Smith and PJ Fleck the rest of the way.

There are some similarities with the way the two teams are going to approach this one and they may be looking at the other with a sense of confidence about having enough to win and snap their own losing runs. Both teams have struggled to run the ball, but are now facing Defensive Lines that have given up at least 210 yards per game on the ground over their last three games and both at 5.1 yards per carry.

The Secondary play has been stronger partly because teams have been able to run the ball on them up front, but neither Minnesota nor Illinois will point to consistent play from their Quarter Backs who have needed to make up for a limited running game.

Where the difference in this one can be made is that the Minnesota Secondary have been able to create a few more turnovers while Jeff George has been guilty of too many mistakes from the Quarter Back position for Illinois. The Golden Gophers also seen to have the more consistent pass rush and that may see them land with extra possessions which can help them pull away in this one.

Conor Rhoda has also made his mistakes for the Golden Gophers from the Quarter Back position, but he has been a little more secure with his play than George and the Illinois Offensive unit. There will also be a little more time for him to make his plays downfield and I think that adds up the Golden Gophers being the team to snap their run and also win by a wide enough margin to cover this spread.

Minnesota are 5-1 against the spread in the last six in this series and they are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven at home. This is Homecoming for Minnesota which adds motivation, while the Illinois players might be looking ahead to their Homecoming game with the Wisconsin Badgers in Week 9.

It can add up at the College Football level and I will back PJ Fleck to get his men 'rowing the boat' again by snapping their run with a cover.


Oregon Ducks @ UCLA Bruins Pick: The Oregon Ducks had their worst year in what seems like forever in 2016 as they finished 4-8 so the positive for this season is they have already matched that number of wins. The negative is they are 1-3 in the Pac-12 which has ended any small hopes of reaching the Conference Championship Game and the Ducks have not looked the same Offensively since Justin Herbert went down with an injury at Quarter Back.

Herbert won't be around this week either, but the Ducks are facing a UCLA Bruins team who have already been one of the big underachievers in College Football. So many thought the Pac-12 South would come down to a straight battle between UCLA and USC, but the Bruins are 1-2 in Conference play and only 3-3 after a 4-8 season of their own.

Last season was considered a lost one as Josh Rosen went down with an injury, but the Quarter Back has not lived up to the 'Chosen Rosen' moniker as much as Jim Mora would have hoped. Mora has to be feeling his seat getting warmer all the time now and a defeat to Oregon ahead of back to back trips to Washington and Utah could see the Bruins take a nosedive.

On paper you may wonder how the UCLA Bruins are only favoured by 6.5 points when facing an Oregon team without their starting Quarter Back and off back to back blow outs. The simple reason is that the Bruins have not been able to stop the run for love nor money this season and I like the Ducks chances of keeping this close by simply not throwing the ball.

Braxton Burmeister struggled in his start last week as the young Quarter Back continues to get used to the College Football standards, but this week it would be foolish to throw the ball. The Ducks have enough creases to their running game to at least keep UCLA guessing, while Burmeister has some nice wheels and the read option is likely to be devastating to the Bruins if Oregon can get Burmeister to run effectively.

Even when UCLA know a run is coming they have struggled and the numbers make ugly reading. They have allowed 313 yards per game on the ground this season, but that number becomes 351 yards per game over their last three, while the per carry number moves from 6.6 yards on the season to 7.3 yards over the last three games.

Ugly numbers is the only thing you can say and I expect Oregon to have plenty of success in this one with their Offensive unit geared to run the ball.

It will mean keeping the UCLA Offensive unit on the sidelines and possibly sustaining drives to at least give the Oregon Defense a chance to rest. However I can't ignore the fact that the Ducks Defensive unit has not played that well and Rosen should be able to guide the UCLA Bruins to plenty of points of their own.

Oregon do have the edge on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball though and that could see them stall UCLA at least for long enough to keep this game close. There is no doubt that Rosen will have his big numbers like he has for much of the season, but being unable to run the ball effectively means the Quarter Back has faced plenty of pressure up front and that is likely to be the case in Week 8 too.

That pressure has seen Rosen throw 8 Interceptions along with his 17 Touchdown passes and this Ducks Secondary are capable of picking up a turnover or two. In a shoot out there might be more pressure on Rosen than the Oregon Offensive unit which is going to looking to run the ball and I think the Ducks can keep this close.

Oregon are 5-1 against the spread in their last six visits to UCLA and the Bruins are just 6-12 against the spread in their last eighteen as the home favourite. I will take the points with the banged up Ducks to at least keep this one within this number even in a losing effort.


SMU Mustangs @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: The American Athletic Conference has to be wondering if one of their leading teams could potentially force their way into the College Football Play Off reckoning. There have been so many upsets across the nation that it is becoming a more realistic proposition going forward, but neither the SMU Mustangs or Cincinnati Bearcats are going to be one of those considered.

Even getting to the Championship Game would be a remarkable achievement for either of these schools, but that does not mean both SMU and Cincinnati come into Week 8 in a disappointed frame of mind. The Mustangs in particularly have been a surprisingly good team and are looking to become Bowl eligible for the first time since 2012 while a win here would mean they have matched their total from the 2016 season.

On the other hand the Bearcats could not have made a much more disappointing start to the 2017 season and even moving into Conference play hasn't helped as they have dropped three consecutive Conference games. The Bearcats only won four games last season but were expecting an improvement, although they haven't been able to make up for the inconsistent play they are receiving from Hayden Moore at Quarter Back.

This game is likely to be all about Moore's play at Quarter Back as far as Cincinnati are concerned, although he was banged up last week. They still expect Moore to start but that elbow injury has to be an problem that will have to be kept an eye on, especially as Cincinnati's best chances of moving the chains are likely to come through the air.

Cincinnati have struggled to run the ball and they won't find a lot of room up front in this one which means having to lean on their Quarter Back more than they would perhaps want to. While the SMU Secondary is one that will give up some significant numbers to Moore, the pressure the Mustangs get up front has seen the Secondary pick up turnovers when teams throw against them and that could be a problem in Week 8 for Moore who has 10 Touchdown passes and 6 Interceptions.

Unlike the Bearcats, the SMU Mustangs can lean on a much more balanced Offensive unit which has shown capabilities to run the ball as well as they can pass it. It should be more of the same in Week 8 as the Bearcats have had problems across the Defensive unit and that balance makes it much more difficult to have any real success in stopping a team from moving the chains consistently.

With the run established, the Cincinnati Secondary could be vulnerable to Ben Hicks at Quarter Back who has thrown 15 Touchdown passes and just 5 Interceptions this season. With a limited pass rush, Hicks should have time to make his plays from third and manageable spots before seeing the pass-action and bootleg plays really open up things downfield.

Cincinnati have blown out SMU in 2013 and 2014, but the roles of the two teams have reversed since then and I do like the Mustangs even as a big road favourite this week. My concern would be that the Mustangs are not a team who have been used to being favoured on the road and whether that brings up some complacency, but all factors considered I do think they will have much more success Offensively than the Bearcats and that can see them pull away in a road win.

The Bearcats are also 1-11 against the spread in their last twelve home games and they have been blown out by Marshall and UCF here this season. While the Mustangs may not be up to that level, SMU are coming out of a bye and should be well prepared for this one as they look to make up for the defeat to the Houston Cougars.

It is a big number for SMU, but I like their chances to cover.


LSU Tigers @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: The LSU Tigers have gotten the better of me for two weeks in a row, but I am going to go back to the well and oppose them again.

I like the Tigers as a programme, but this LSU team is not a vintage one and I can't shake the loss to the Troy Trojans. They have been a little fortunate to beat Florida and Auburn the last two weeks and I could easily have won both of those picks, so I am not sure the LSU Tigers have done enough to be favoured on the road in Week 8.

People who want to oppose that statement can point to the fact that the Mississippi Rebels are just 3-3 this season and 1-2 in the SEC games they have played. However the Rebels have not exactly been blessed with the best of schedules and I can see things being much better for them down the stretch.

They are also catching the LSU Tigers at what looks to be an opportune time after seeing the Tigers come back from a huge deficit to upset the Auburn Tigers in Week 7. LSU also have Alabama next up on deck, although the schedule spot for the upset would have been a lot stronger if there wasn't a bye game for LSU before that game.

Another factor outside of the emotional win in Week 7 has to be that LSU are not a great Offensive team and automatically it makes it much harder to trust them to cover what is a decent amount of points for the home underdog here.

This could be a stronger week for the Tigers considering Darrius Guice is getting healthier and now the Tigers Offensive Line has the chance to blow open some holes against a struggling Rebels Defensive Line. It should definitely be a chance for LSU to make some solid gains on the ground and that has to be a concern for Mississippi although the banged up nature of the premier Running Back could see the Rebels have slightly more success than anticipated.

If that is the case the pass rush should be able to rush Danny Etling into struggling to connect his passes and that at least should be able to stall drives. It is impossible to expect LSU to be shut down completely, but all it will take is a couple of drives not to go as they would like and the Rebels will have a chance to keep this close.

While the anticipation is that the Tigers are running the ball effectively, the LSU Tigers Defensive Line has had some issues against the run of their own. That could be the key to the entire game for the Mississippi Rebels and determining how this game develops for them.

Being able to run the ball will take some of the pressure off of Shea Patterson at Quarter Back who has a tough match up against the Tigers Secondary. You couldn't see him winning a lot of those battles in third and long spots or obvious passing downs, but being able to run the ball will give him a chance to complete shorter routes and keep the chains moving.

It also opens up play-action for the Rebels as they try and keep LSU off balance and I think there is a real chance they can do that.

I simply don't think the Tigers are as good as their wins over Florida and Auburn suggest and so they feel over-rated here. The underdog is 13-4 against the spread in the last seventeen in this series while five of the last eight have been decided by seven points or less.

Mississippi have beaten the LSU Tigers the last two times they have hosted them and I think all of the emotions that the Tigers had in knocking off Auburn last week could see them perhaps a little unfocused here. With Alabama next to come it is easy for the Tigers to overlook the struggling Rebels, but I think Mississippi are better than their results indicate and they can keep this close with the points.


Michigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The Michigan Wolverines needed Overtime to beat the Indiana Hoosiers but that has kept them in contention in the Big Ten East. If they run the table you have to think the Wolverines would have every chance of still reaching the Big Ten Championship Game, but this is a big test for them against the Penn State Nittany Lions.

It is the Nittany Lions who are the current Big Ten Champions and they have been unbeaten since losing to the Michigan Wolverines in the 2016 season. Penn State have thus got plenty of motivation with revenge on their minds, while they are coming out of a bye week which should mean they are well prepared for this one.

The next two weeks will determine how this season is going to go for the Nittany Lions who have to face Michigan and Ohio State in back to back games. James Franklin has to be given a lot of credit for the way he has turned Penn State back into a National Title contender and this is a fascinating game between these teams.

As much as some may want to knock Michigan for not being an unbeaten team, they have yet to lose the yardage battle this season and were unfortunate to go down to the Spartans in their loss. The problem for the Wolverines is on the Offensive side of the ball with the loss of Wilton Speight at Quarter Back a big blow to their chances of reaching the Big Ten Championship Game.

John O'Korn just has not looked as comfortable running things and he has not been given much backing from a running game as teams have loaded the box and dared the Quarter Back to beat them through the air. Michigan are not going to have much room to run the ball in this one either and so the pressure will be on O'Korn to make the plays through the air.

That won't be easy for the Quarter Back with the pass rush pressure the Nittany Lions will be able to get on O'Korn, while there have been too many Interceptions thrown which is going to hurt the Wolverines. It makes it difficult to see the Wolverines moving the chains with consistency, while they are also likely to see a few drives stall where they have to settle for Field Goals rather than Touchdowns.

The reason Michigan have only lost one game is simply down to the Defensive unit being able to keep them in games. It is a dominant unit and they will feel they can help Michigan earn the upset by restricting what Penn State are able to do Offensively.

Like the Nittany Lions, the Michigan Defensive Line will feel confident they can win their battle up front and shut down any rushing game Penn State try to bring onto the field. That won't be easy when going up against Saquon Barkley who was considered one of the leading Heisman Trophy contenders, but the Penn State Offensive Line have had some difficulties opening holes for him throughout the season and now face their toughest challenge so far.

The Michigan Secondary have also played well so it isn't as if Penn State can lean on Trace McSorley and expect the Quarter Back to make big plays all evening. One of the big issues he will have is getting the time to throw the ball downfield as Michigan are able to get to the Quarter Back, but the Penn State Offensive Line have not played well in pass protection.

However I do like the Nittany Lions to cover a big spread because I think Penn State will win the turnover battle in this one. McSorley also should be confident in making one or two big plays with the extra possessions he is likely to have and I will look for the Nittany Lions to earn revenge for their embarrassing loss in the Big House last season.

The home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five games in the series and I will look for Penn State to shut down John O'Korn and find their way to cover a big number in this one.


USC Trojans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: With one loss already on the schedule for each of these teams, the losing team in this Week 8 game might feel they have already missed out on a potential place in the final four of the College Football Play Off. The USC Trojans and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a rivalry too and so there is plenty of the line on South Bend on Saturday evening.

There will be revenge on the mind for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish who were blown out in South California last season, but being back at home should give them the edge. The one loss to the Georgia Bulldogs does not look a bad one for the Fighting Irish who have also blown out the Michigan State Spartans to show they are capable of making the final four.

The Notre Dame loss does look better than the USC one to the Washington State Cougars but falling to a second loss will put pay to the hopes of both teams and that includes if the Trojans were to still go on and win the Pac-12 Championship Game.

These teams do mesh well with one another and both have Quarter Backs who believe they can guide their team to success. Sam Darnold is facing a Secondary that has struggled and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are missing a couple of key Linebackers which could see them have some real success when the Quarter Back drops back to throw.

However the Fighting Irish may feel they can can dominate the line of scrimmage which prevents the Trojans from gaining too much on the ground and then unleashing a pass rush to get after Darnold. Notre Dame also look the stronger at the line of scrimmage on the other side of the ball and I think that can be a key to their success in this one.

It does feel like the Fighting Irish will be able to run the ball effectively which will keep Darnold and the Trojans Offense on the sidelines while also slowing down the USC pass rush. Doing that should keep the chains moving too and I think the Fighting Irish can get the better of the Trojans in this one.

That won't be easy, but having home field advantage could be important with the home team now 4-0 against the spread in the last four games in the series. I also think the Trojans have a better record than they may have done if a couple of teams had a bit more luck at key moments and I am looking for Notre Dame to be too strong.

USC are also just 1-5 against the spread as the road underdog in the last three seasons and this Notre Dame team are much improved and can cover the spread in a home win.

MY PICKS: Iowa State Cyclones + 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers + 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Minnesota Golden Gophers - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
SMU Mustangs - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)