The first few days of this week had been very difficult for the picks, but things have turned around after a very good Thursday which saw they daily picks go 5-2 to put this week back into the black. There are still a couple of days left of the week and I am hoping to build on the momentum from Thursday.
The WTA Finals is fast approaching and the top eight places have almost been completely set, but Svetlana Kuznetsova has reached the Semi Final in Moscow and needs two more wins to finish above Johanna Konta in the Race for Singapore. Kuznetsova has a big Semi Final on Friday to play as she looks to win the tournament in Moscow for a second season in a row, while the ATP tournaments this week have all reached the Quarter Final Round.
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: There are some matches on the tennis Tour that seem to suit players and you have to think Fabio Fognini is very confident he can get the better of Albert Ramos-Vinolas in this Quarter Final. This is going to be the ninth time they have met on the professional Tour, but it is Fognini who has won the previous eight which includes a straight sets win in Shanghai earlier this month.
The recent form suggest Ramos-Vinolas might be able to make this a more competitive match against Fognini, but the Italian is the better player in the rallies and makes a big difference when neither player possesses a huge serve.
Fognini has a couple of solid wins behind him this week in Moscow and that should give him more confidence to deal with Ramos-Vinolas yet again. You simply cannot escape the fact that Ramos-Vinolas is going to have to overcome some real mental obstacles with the eight match losing run against Fognini and his lefty serve is clearly not an issue for Fognini to work to break point and subsequent breaks.
The Italian has covered this number of games in seven of the previous eight matches with Ramos-Vinolas and Fognini is playing well enough to find a way to do that again.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: Everyone knows that Ivo Karlovic is capable of bringing some big serving to the court every time he steps up to the line to serve. That makes him dangerous, but Karlovic has not been as strong in this department this season and the hot form of a couple of months ago has definitely cooled down now.
Karlovic will always be dangerous with the serve he possesses, but Juan Martin Del Potro faced John Isner already this week and so should have his eye in for what he will be seeing coming from the other side of the court. Del Potro is not a small man either and his levers should give him a chance to get enough balls back in play and some with considerable speed which will make it difficult for Karlovic to control his volleys.
The Argentinian is moving up the World Rankings and the key for him is to make sure he looks after his own service games and then tries to get involved in Karlovic's. I don't think Del Potro will have a lot of chances, but he showed in the win over Isner that he can take the few chances he does create against a huge server.
The difference between Isner and Karlovic is the need of the latter to get into the net and make volleys, but even that will be difficult after the second or third shot against Del Potro and I think the former US Open Champion wins this one 76, 64.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: The indoor hard courts have seen the best performances from Jan-Lennard Struff through his career and he has reached the Quarter Final in Antwerp. However he has had some trouble along the way and the match with Richard Gasquet is another step up from his previous opponents.
The win over Gilles Simon was impressive, but I am not sure how much Simon had left in the tank after a long and gruelling week in Shanghai which had ended just a few days ago. Travelling all the way back to Europe and playing in this tournament doesn't sound the most appealing of schedules but Simon still had enough chances to win that match with Struff.
Gasquet should be the best server that Struff has faced this week and that has to be a concern when you think he has given up 28 break points in just two matches. Struff should be full of confidence having won a Challenger event on this circuit recently but he is scheduled to be at the Vienna Qualifying this weekend and I wonder if he will have the fight to dig in if he does get behind by a set.
It hasn't been the most productive few weeks for Gasquet, but he was an easy winner in the Second Round and has plenty of indoor hard court experience too. If he can use that effectively I think the Frenchman can come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Semi Final to come on Saturday.
Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: There is no doubting that Pablo Cuevas as a Seed in a hard court event is very vulnerable and his best tennis is restricted to the clay courts. He has been very good on the clay this season which has seen him move up to Number 22 in the World Rankings and likely a Seed for the Australian Open, but that means I tend to stick away from him when it comes to being a favourite on the hard courts.
Cuevas hasn't shown a lot of positive form since the Tour moved onto the last quarter of the season which is predominantly a hard court time of the year. I think it is also telling that he has not won back to back matches on this surface in the last twelve months and so it might come as a surprise that I am going to back him to win this Quarter Final.
That has much to do with the opponent he is facing as he meets fellow South American Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, another player who doesn't have a lot of hard court form behind him and who is much more comfortable on the slower surfaces. Schwartzman should be credited for winning two matches in Antwerp already, but he too had been struggling with the move back to the hard courts.
The match up should be one that Cuevas enjoys much more as it should be one that develops into the kind of rallies you would see on the slower surfaces. I do think Cuevas has the bigger serve, which could be key, although the doubt remains with his lack of results on the hard courts in the past. However, I think Cuevas won't have too many better chances to reach a Semi Final of an indoor hard court event and I think he battles through with a 64, 57, 64 win.
Julia Goerges + 2.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: A couple of years ago Julia Goerges might have been considered a player that would be making the next step in her career to challenge some of the better players on the Tour. That hasn't really happened for her on the Singles Tour, but she has performed better on the Doubles Tour which should see her competing at the WTA Finals next week.
For now she can concentrate on finishing her Singles season on a high as she gets set for this tough Semi Final with Daria Gavrilova. Both players have shown good form this week and I imagine Gavrilova will be going to Doubles partner Daria Kasatkina for tips having seen Goerges beat her handily in the Quarter Final.
I think Gavrilova has a little more power off the ground than Kasatkina at this stage of their careers though and that should give Goerges a few more things to think about. However Goerges has been setting up her play very well this week behind her serve and it should be able to keep her in this match and potentially win outright.
I really don't think there is as much between the players as the layers clearly believe. Both should have their moments and, unless Goerges is thinking about heading to Singapore for the Doubles event at the WTA Finals, I think both realise how much is on the line in terms of vital Ranking points they can earn this week.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if we need three sets to separate these players, but Goerges is the kind of streaky player that can be hard to stop when she is putting her tennis together like she has this week. Backing her with the games should be enough for the cover if this does go deep into a third set like I am anticipating, while I can't rule out Goerges winning this one straight up and at odds against I will back her with the start.
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 games v Monica Niculescu: It has been a miserable couple of months for Kiki Bertens, but 2016 has been a strong season for her and something to build upon in 2017. She is looking to end the season on a high having returned to winning ways in Luxembourg and Bertens has been good for my picks over the last couple of Rounds.
I am going to try and make it a hat-trick backing the in form Dutchwoman in this Semi Final although I think Monica Niculescu deserves a healthy respect with her ability to bamboozle opponents with her variation. She is not the kind of player you will see very often on the Tour and Bertens has to remain concentrated or this match could quickly slip away from her.
The power off the ground and from the serve is all with Bertens and she certainly has the tools to break down the Niculescu game. However it is the Romanian's movement around the court which forces players to hit closer and closer to the lines which extracts errors and can wear players down mentally which is a concern as Bertens has been doing a lot of losing before this week in Luxembourg.
The one benefit for Bertens is she has faced Niculescu before and even in a losing effort she should have learned something. If she concentrates on her own service games the pressure should build on Niculescu who doesn't have the same sort of power as Bertens and I think that can lead to a 63, 46, 64 win for the Number 3 Seed.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Julia Goerges + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-6, + 3.16 Units (28 Units Staked, + 11.29% Yield)
Showing posts with label Antwerp Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Antwerp Picks. Show all posts
Friday, 21 October 2016
Saturday, 14 February 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (February 14th)
Friday started off so well, but some of the misses for the picks have been disheartening to say the least- Fabio Fognini, Dusan Lajovic and Leonardo Mayer continued my poor picking from the tournament in Sao Paulo, but the annoying part is how Fognini and Mayer blew their chance to win their respective matches.
There are just some weeks when players who are pretty poor for most of the year, for example Joao Souza, can suddenly produce under immense pressure which belays the fact that they are not in the World top 100. If Souza could produce what he has in the last couple of matches on a regular basis, he would be far higher than his 110 World Ranking to say the least!
You can only be frustrated- John Isner was so superior to Sam Querrey in a tight match, yet somehow loses in two tie-breakers, while Kei Nishikori just didn't play well enough in his match. It just means this week looks fairly neutral, but I am unimpressed with the lack of fortune that has gone my way.
I don't know whether I should blame someone else- another site has requested a few of my picks and every one I have sent across has lost!! What is that about?!! The worst of that is how players have lost matches, for example Fabio Fognini was 5-2 up in the second set against Santiago Giraldo and then suddenly goes and loses 5 games in a row.
Of course it is tongue in cheek to suggest some sort of vortex is affecting the picks as soon as I send them across to the other site, but what are the chances in a week where I have more winners than losers that I would have gone 1-6 with picks I have sent to them?!
Semi Final time for all the tournaments this week and there isn't a familiar feel to the tournaments in Sao Paulo and Memphis with new names like Luka Vanni and Joao Souza making an impact on the main Tour. In Memphis it is Donald Young that is perhaps a surprising name, but these things can happen in a long season on the Tour when some of the lesser lights find inspiration to make a run.
The key is to try and do that consistently, but I won't be holding my breath for any of those players named to do that from what I have seen this week or before that. You can ride your luck for only so long and I have seen players like James Ward or Alex Bogdanovic perform wonderfully well at Queens in the past but fail to back that up by becoming a regular feature on the Tour.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: It has been a very good week for both Karolina Pliskova and Carla Suarez Navarro already, but the chance to reach the Final and grab some more vital Ranking points could make this a slightly tense affair.
I like Pliskova's chances of winning this match because of her extra power, something that Suarez Navarro has struggled against in the past and that will especially be a problem if the Spaniard continues to offer up as many break point opportunities as she has been.
Pliskova will be broken, but she has a more consistent serve of the two and that can pay off on the indoor hard courts which can play a bit quicker. There are times when the Czech player seems to get really down on herself, although those are not as often as they used to be, and she has to control her emotions against someone like Suarez Navarro who can get a lot of balls back in play.
As long as she maintains that control of her emotions, Pliskova should prove a little too strong and come through 63, 46, 63.
Stan Wawrinka v Milos Raonic: Both of these players have had to come through some difficult moments in Rotterdam this week, but they have made their Seeds count by meeting in the Semi Final as expected.
Both Stan Wawrinka and Milos Raonic have needed to go the distance in two of their three wins this week, but I do think the Swiss player has looked the more confident in his matches and can use that to continue his head to head dominance of Raonic.
Wawrinka has won all three previous matches against Raonic, and he would have had some practice dealing with a big server in his win over Gilles Muller on Friday. However, Wawrinka has to serve better than he did in the second set in that win over Muller as he gave a limited returner too many chances and can't afford to go down a break to someone like Raonic.
Playing on the indoor hard courts will give Raonic a chance to impose himself with his serve, but Wawrinka showed at the World Tour Finals that he is very comfortable on the surface himself. It will be tight with a couple of points here and there making the difference, but I like Wawrinka to win.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-10, - 0.06 Units (42 Units Staked, - 0.1% Yield)
There are just some weeks when players who are pretty poor for most of the year, for example Joao Souza, can suddenly produce under immense pressure which belays the fact that they are not in the World top 100. If Souza could produce what he has in the last couple of matches on a regular basis, he would be far higher than his 110 World Ranking to say the least!
You can only be frustrated- John Isner was so superior to Sam Querrey in a tight match, yet somehow loses in two tie-breakers, while Kei Nishikori just didn't play well enough in his match. It just means this week looks fairly neutral, but I am unimpressed with the lack of fortune that has gone my way.
I don't know whether I should blame someone else- another site has requested a few of my picks and every one I have sent across has lost!! What is that about?!! The worst of that is how players have lost matches, for example Fabio Fognini was 5-2 up in the second set against Santiago Giraldo and then suddenly goes and loses 5 games in a row.
Of course it is tongue in cheek to suggest some sort of vortex is affecting the picks as soon as I send them across to the other site, but what are the chances in a week where I have more winners than losers that I would have gone 1-6 with picks I have sent to them?!
Semi Final time for all the tournaments this week and there isn't a familiar feel to the tournaments in Sao Paulo and Memphis with new names like Luka Vanni and Joao Souza making an impact on the main Tour. In Memphis it is Donald Young that is perhaps a surprising name, but these things can happen in a long season on the Tour when some of the lesser lights find inspiration to make a run.
The key is to try and do that consistently, but I won't be holding my breath for any of those players named to do that from what I have seen this week or before that. You can ride your luck for only so long and I have seen players like James Ward or Alex Bogdanovic perform wonderfully well at Queens in the past but fail to back that up by becoming a regular feature on the Tour.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: It has been a very good week for both Karolina Pliskova and Carla Suarez Navarro already, but the chance to reach the Final and grab some more vital Ranking points could make this a slightly tense affair.
I like Pliskova's chances of winning this match because of her extra power, something that Suarez Navarro has struggled against in the past and that will especially be a problem if the Spaniard continues to offer up as many break point opportunities as she has been.
Pliskova will be broken, but she has a more consistent serve of the two and that can pay off on the indoor hard courts which can play a bit quicker. There are times when the Czech player seems to get really down on herself, although those are not as often as they used to be, and she has to control her emotions against someone like Suarez Navarro who can get a lot of balls back in play.
As long as she maintains that control of her emotions, Pliskova should prove a little too strong and come through 63, 46, 63.
Stan Wawrinka v Milos Raonic: Both of these players have had to come through some difficult moments in Rotterdam this week, but they have made their Seeds count by meeting in the Semi Final as expected.
Both Stan Wawrinka and Milos Raonic have needed to go the distance in two of their three wins this week, but I do think the Swiss player has looked the more confident in his matches and can use that to continue his head to head dominance of Raonic.
Wawrinka has won all three previous matches against Raonic, and he would have had some practice dealing with a big server in his win over Gilles Muller on Friday. However, Wawrinka has to serve better than he did in the second set in that win over Muller as he gave a limited returner too many chances and can't afford to go down a break to someone like Raonic.
Playing on the indoor hard courts will give Raonic a chance to impose himself with his serve, but Wawrinka showed at the World Tour Finals that he is very comfortable on the surface himself. It will be tight with a couple of points here and there making the difference, but I like Wawrinka to win.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-10, - 0.06 Units (42 Units Staked, - 0.1% Yield)
Friday, 13 February 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (February 13th)
It would have been a really good day on Thursday if I had steered clear of the tournament in Sao Paulo where I went 0-3, especially as I was 4-0 everywhere else.
As the tournaments have got closer to the end of the week, it does mean that the markets are playing catch up with the matches being set so I will add any picks from the later matches in Antwerp, Sao Paulo and Memphis, if I have any, as soon as those are available.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Gael Monfils: The Quarter Final line up at the tournament in Rotterdam has all of the big names, Grigor Dimitrov aside, that the organisers would have been expecting when they put together their entry list. The first ATP 500 event of the season is an important one for World Ranking points and so the motivation remains high.
Both Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils will believe they can make a considerable move during the 2015 season in terms of their goals- that is Berdych challenging for a Grand Slam title and Gael Monfils perhaps getting close to returning to the top 10.
Berdych is the defending Champion here and is the more consistent of these two players although there are similarities with both producing a very good first serve and being able to follow that up. Monfils can be a little more hesitant when it comes to the aggressive tennis and that may be the difference between these players in this Quarter Final.
I think both will have their success serving early in the match and there is every chance the first set needs to be decided on a tie-break, but I think that is where Berdych's extra aggression on the indoor hard courts leads to a 76, 63 win.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: It has been a really good twelve months for Gilles Muller but I think he will have his run ended at the Quarter Final here in Rotterdam by Stan Wawrinka.
The Swiss Number 2 was a comfortable winner over Muller when they met in Chennai, although it has to be respected how well Muller can serve. He doesn't have the searing pace of Milos Raonic, but his placement and coming from a lefty means Muller can run through games very quickly.
However, I think Wawrinka's aggressive returns can pay off in this one, especially if he can get his eye in early, while Muller has seemed to tire in Zagreb last week. This will need to be Wawrinka's best performance of the week, but he has worked his way into the tournament and got stronger in his win over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the last Round.
Wawrinka can make the scoreboard pressure tell in a 76, 63 win in this one.
Carla Suarez Navarro - 2.5 games v Francesca Schiavone: A dominating performance from Francesca Schiavone over Angelique Kerber in the last Round where she lost just two games seems to have had the market over-rate her chances in this one against Carla Suarez Navarro. It has been a very good week for the veteran Italian who had not won a match all season before coming through the qualifiers and winning two matches in the main draw, but I think Carla Suarez Navarro will be a little too consistent for her.
Suarez Navarro won't dominate this match on power, but she has enough shot-making to keep Schiavone on the move and wear her down in the match. It has been a more difficult path through the draw for the Spaniard after she dropped the opening set in both of her matches played this week, but she has shown plenty of belief which can only serve her well in this match too.
I am expecting some long rallies in this one as both players are decent movers and it won't surprise me to see a number of breaks of serve in both directions, but I think the younger Suarez Navarro will have a little too much in the locker.
This could go three sets, but a 46, 63, 64 win for Suarez Navarro is what I am expecting.
Barbora Zahlavova Strycova - 1.5 games v Mona Barthel: One of the more difficult aspects on the tennis Tour is backing up a widely regarded win from a previous Round and that is what Mona Barthel will need to do after dismissing the challenge of Eugenie Bouchard on Thursday.
Barthel came from a set down to demolish the young Canadian star, but Barbora Zahlavova Strycova is another challenge as the Czech player has produced a lot of quality wins over the last nine months. There is every chance Zahlavova Strycova is going to crack the top 20 in the World Rankings over the next couple of weeks and she has won the last two matches against Barthel which have taken place in the nine month period of improved results.
Both of those matches were fairly comfortable wins for Zahlavova Strycova who works hard on the court and has decent enough movement to make Barthel play plenty of balls.
That can lead to mistakes from Barthel who will be under pressure to back up the win over Bouchard and I just think she may struggle to deal with that in this one. It could potentially be another three setter here, but I do like Zahlavova Strycova's chances of moving through with a 63, 36, 64 win.
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 games v Luka Vanni: Dusan Lajovic surprised me with his come from behind win over Fernando Verdasco yesterday, but he has a very good chance to take advantage and move into the Semi Final here in Sao Paulo. He meets Luka Vanni, a qualifier who was given a bye in the First Round after Feliciano Lopez' withdrawal moved him to the top of the draw, but also someone that Lajovic beat in straight sets in Quito last week.
Both players do feel comfortable on the clay courts, but the edge will go to Lajovic thanks to more consistent serving, which is always important on the slower courts. Earning the short ball is the key to dictating rallies and Lajovic should be able to do that as long as he isn't overly-exerted from the evening session match with Verdasco.
Luka Vanni is likely to reach a career high in the World Rankings on Monday thanks to his first ever win in a main ATP event and the majority of his success has come at the Futures level. For a 29 year old, that looks a large gap to bridge even if the Italian is very comfortable on the clay courts.
When they met in Quito, Lajovic didn't take his chances to produce a win better than the 76, 64 scoreline it ended up being. I think he might be a little more efficient this time unless Vanni produces a lot of first serves and I like the Serbian to perhaps win this by a game more in a 75, 64 win.
Leonardo Mayer - 3.5 games v Joao Souza: I was watching the Joao Souza win over Martin Klizan last night and tweeted that I would be surprised if he was going to win more than six games against Leonardo Mayer. While I have changed my mind about that since last night, I still think the Argentinian can break Brazilian hearts with a fairly comfortable Quarter Final win.
These players have met four times in the past, all below the ATP level, and it Mayer who has won all four of those matches, although he has needed to go the distance every time. It is a weird trend in their matches which sees Mayer win the first set fairly comfortably, but then lose a second set tie-breaker... That has happened in all four previous matches!
The last of those matches took place three seasons ago and Leonardo Mayer has become much more comfortable competing at a higher level than Souza does. While the Brazilian has two impressive wins this week, Mayer is the most difficult challenge he would have faced and the familiarity with this opponent should aid the higher Ranked player.
Even though Mayer has dropped the second set in all four previous matches against Souza, he has covered this number of games three times and I do think he is the better player. Souza has been inspired by the home support which makes a lot of noise when his opponent makes errors, an issue that can upset the opponent, but Mayer is experienced enough to deal with that. I like Mayer to come through 63, 76.
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: I am not sure how Fabio Fognini ever got to Number 13 in the World Rankings, but you can't doubt what the Italian has done on the clay courts over the last eighteen months. He came through a very difficult Second Round match in three sets and explained that it is tough to make the surface change, so I do expect a more rounded performance in this one.
Fognini will be playing Santiago Giraldo in this Quarter Final and has got the better of the Colombian in 4 of their previous 6 matches, including beating him in their most recent match on clay. However, he was only two games away from a double bagel from this opponent in Barcelona last year before pulling out with an injury, although it wasn't anything long-term as Fognini was back in action a week later and reaching the Final in Munich.
This will be tight Quarter Final where both players should pick up the momentum- the clay courts seem to work well for Fognini and his defensive ability on the court which will extract errors from Giraldo, although it is the latter who has the edge in the service and power department.
However, I think the defensive players that can get a lot of balls back in play are always going to be a problem for the inconsistent Giraldo to deal with and I believe Fognini will come through. Even if this ends in straight sets, I don't think Fognini pulls away too far, but the games are small enough that I will back the erratic Italian to come through 75, 75.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Austin Krajicek: Kei Nishikori is going for his third straight Memphis title and he has only dropped two sets over the last two a bit tournaments that he has played so you can understand that he is very happy with the conditions he faces. He should progress through to the Semi Final with little fuss against Austin Krajicek, even if the American has earned some confidence stripes from coming through the qualifiers and winning two main Round matches.
The problem I see for Krajicek is that a somewhat limited returner like Ivo Karlovic was winning a lot more points against his serve than he would perhaps like to admit. There were many 15-30, 30-30 points that were played and he now faces a player that will get a lot of balls back in play and is as quick turning defence into attack as any player on the Tour.
Nishikori's serve is the biggest weakness when it comes to him covering big spreads simply because he has to work so hard to win points and he is not going to get a lot of cheap points. However, Krajicek will also be under pressure to try and keep up with the World Number 5 and he is coming up against a top 10 player for the first time.
That should inspire him for a while and the first set could be tight, but I would expect Nishikori to take control once he figures out what Krajicek can produce on the court and come through with a 64, 62 win.
John Isner - 1.5 games v Sam Querrey: It is hard to believe that these two American players who had the hard task of following on from the likes of Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick haven't met for five seasons in a competitive match. As two of the members of the United States Davis Cup team, there still won't be any secret as to what the other wants to do and that is namely dictate behind a huge serve and crushing forehand.
Sam Querrey is no longer the player that some American fans would have hoped could be the next Grand Slam Champion from this nation and it is John Isner who burdens that pressure for the most part. However, neither is really someone that people would back to win a Slam because of limited return games.
Of the two, Isner has been much more consistent and has been dominant when playing in the United States on the hard courts and I think he will have the edge in this one. Querrey is a big man that will get his racquet on more balls than some, but he also has the tendency to throw in a sloppy game or two or serve and that is where Isner can pounce.
It is Querrey who holds a 2-1 head to head advantage between these players, but Isner has improved markedly since 2010 while Querrey has stood still and I like the higher Ranked American to come through 76, 64.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Barbora Zahlavova Strycova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
John Isner - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-5, + 2.30 Units (24 Units Staked, + 9.58% Yield)
As the tournaments have got closer to the end of the week, it does mean that the markets are playing catch up with the matches being set so I will add any picks from the later matches in Antwerp, Sao Paulo and Memphis, if I have any, as soon as those are available.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Gael Monfils: The Quarter Final line up at the tournament in Rotterdam has all of the big names, Grigor Dimitrov aside, that the organisers would have been expecting when they put together their entry list. The first ATP 500 event of the season is an important one for World Ranking points and so the motivation remains high.
Both Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils will believe they can make a considerable move during the 2015 season in terms of their goals- that is Berdych challenging for a Grand Slam title and Gael Monfils perhaps getting close to returning to the top 10.
Berdych is the defending Champion here and is the more consistent of these two players although there are similarities with both producing a very good first serve and being able to follow that up. Monfils can be a little more hesitant when it comes to the aggressive tennis and that may be the difference between these players in this Quarter Final.
I think both will have their success serving early in the match and there is every chance the first set needs to be decided on a tie-break, but I think that is where Berdych's extra aggression on the indoor hard courts leads to a 76, 63 win.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: It has been a really good twelve months for Gilles Muller but I think he will have his run ended at the Quarter Final here in Rotterdam by Stan Wawrinka.
The Swiss Number 2 was a comfortable winner over Muller when they met in Chennai, although it has to be respected how well Muller can serve. He doesn't have the searing pace of Milos Raonic, but his placement and coming from a lefty means Muller can run through games very quickly.
However, I think Wawrinka's aggressive returns can pay off in this one, especially if he can get his eye in early, while Muller has seemed to tire in Zagreb last week. This will need to be Wawrinka's best performance of the week, but he has worked his way into the tournament and got stronger in his win over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the last Round.
Wawrinka can make the scoreboard pressure tell in a 76, 63 win in this one.
Carla Suarez Navarro - 2.5 games v Francesca Schiavone: A dominating performance from Francesca Schiavone over Angelique Kerber in the last Round where she lost just two games seems to have had the market over-rate her chances in this one against Carla Suarez Navarro. It has been a very good week for the veteran Italian who had not won a match all season before coming through the qualifiers and winning two matches in the main draw, but I think Carla Suarez Navarro will be a little too consistent for her.
Suarez Navarro won't dominate this match on power, but she has enough shot-making to keep Schiavone on the move and wear her down in the match. It has been a more difficult path through the draw for the Spaniard after she dropped the opening set in both of her matches played this week, but she has shown plenty of belief which can only serve her well in this match too.
I am expecting some long rallies in this one as both players are decent movers and it won't surprise me to see a number of breaks of serve in both directions, but I think the younger Suarez Navarro will have a little too much in the locker.
This could go three sets, but a 46, 63, 64 win for Suarez Navarro is what I am expecting.
Barbora Zahlavova Strycova - 1.5 games v Mona Barthel: One of the more difficult aspects on the tennis Tour is backing up a widely regarded win from a previous Round and that is what Mona Barthel will need to do after dismissing the challenge of Eugenie Bouchard on Thursday.
Barthel came from a set down to demolish the young Canadian star, but Barbora Zahlavova Strycova is another challenge as the Czech player has produced a lot of quality wins over the last nine months. There is every chance Zahlavova Strycova is going to crack the top 20 in the World Rankings over the next couple of weeks and she has won the last two matches against Barthel which have taken place in the nine month period of improved results.
Both of those matches were fairly comfortable wins for Zahlavova Strycova who works hard on the court and has decent enough movement to make Barthel play plenty of balls.
That can lead to mistakes from Barthel who will be under pressure to back up the win over Bouchard and I just think she may struggle to deal with that in this one. It could potentially be another three setter here, but I do like Zahlavova Strycova's chances of moving through with a 63, 36, 64 win.
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 games v Luka Vanni: Dusan Lajovic surprised me with his come from behind win over Fernando Verdasco yesterday, but he has a very good chance to take advantage and move into the Semi Final here in Sao Paulo. He meets Luka Vanni, a qualifier who was given a bye in the First Round after Feliciano Lopez' withdrawal moved him to the top of the draw, but also someone that Lajovic beat in straight sets in Quito last week.
Both players do feel comfortable on the clay courts, but the edge will go to Lajovic thanks to more consistent serving, which is always important on the slower courts. Earning the short ball is the key to dictating rallies and Lajovic should be able to do that as long as he isn't overly-exerted from the evening session match with Verdasco.
Luka Vanni is likely to reach a career high in the World Rankings on Monday thanks to his first ever win in a main ATP event and the majority of his success has come at the Futures level. For a 29 year old, that looks a large gap to bridge even if the Italian is very comfortable on the clay courts.
When they met in Quito, Lajovic didn't take his chances to produce a win better than the 76, 64 scoreline it ended up being. I think he might be a little more efficient this time unless Vanni produces a lot of first serves and I like the Serbian to perhaps win this by a game more in a 75, 64 win.
Leonardo Mayer - 3.5 games v Joao Souza: I was watching the Joao Souza win over Martin Klizan last night and tweeted that I would be surprised if he was going to win more than six games against Leonardo Mayer. While I have changed my mind about that since last night, I still think the Argentinian can break Brazilian hearts with a fairly comfortable Quarter Final win.
These players have met four times in the past, all below the ATP level, and it Mayer who has won all four of those matches, although he has needed to go the distance every time. It is a weird trend in their matches which sees Mayer win the first set fairly comfortably, but then lose a second set tie-breaker... That has happened in all four previous matches!
The last of those matches took place three seasons ago and Leonardo Mayer has become much more comfortable competing at a higher level than Souza does. While the Brazilian has two impressive wins this week, Mayer is the most difficult challenge he would have faced and the familiarity with this opponent should aid the higher Ranked player.
Even though Mayer has dropped the second set in all four previous matches against Souza, he has covered this number of games three times and I do think he is the better player. Souza has been inspired by the home support which makes a lot of noise when his opponent makes errors, an issue that can upset the opponent, but Mayer is experienced enough to deal with that. I like Mayer to come through 63, 76.
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: I am not sure how Fabio Fognini ever got to Number 13 in the World Rankings, but you can't doubt what the Italian has done on the clay courts over the last eighteen months. He came through a very difficult Second Round match in three sets and explained that it is tough to make the surface change, so I do expect a more rounded performance in this one.
Fognini will be playing Santiago Giraldo in this Quarter Final and has got the better of the Colombian in 4 of their previous 6 matches, including beating him in their most recent match on clay. However, he was only two games away from a double bagel from this opponent in Barcelona last year before pulling out with an injury, although it wasn't anything long-term as Fognini was back in action a week later and reaching the Final in Munich.
This will be tight Quarter Final where both players should pick up the momentum- the clay courts seem to work well for Fognini and his defensive ability on the court which will extract errors from Giraldo, although it is the latter who has the edge in the service and power department.
However, I think the defensive players that can get a lot of balls back in play are always going to be a problem for the inconsistent Giraldo to deal with and I believe Fognini will come through. Even if this ends in straight sets, I don't think Fognini pulls away too far, but the games are small enough that I will back the erratic Italian to come through 75, 75.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Austin Krajicek: Kei Nishikori is going for his third straight Memphis title and he has only dropped two sets over the last two a bit tournaments that he has played so you can understand that he is very happy with the conditions he faces. He should progress through to the Semi Final with little fuss against Austin Krajicek, even if the American has earned some confidence stripes from coming through the qualifiers and winning two main Round matches.
The problem I see for Krajicek is that a somewhat limited returner like Ivo Karlovic was winning a lot more points against his serve than he would perhaps like to admit. There were many 15-30, 30-30 points that were played and he now faces a player that will get a lot of balls back in play and is as quick turning defence into attack as any player on the Tour.
Nishikori's serve is the biggest weakness when it comes to him covering big spreads simply because he has to work so hard to win points and he is not going to get a lot of cheap points. However, Krajicek will also be under pressure to try and keep up with the World Number 5 and he is coming up against a top 10 player for the first time.
That should inspire him for a while and the first set could be tight, but I would expect Nishikori to take control once he figures out what Krajicek can produce on the court and come through with a 64, 62 win.
John Isner - 1.5 games v Sam Querrey: It is hard to believe that these two American players who had the hard task of following on from the likes of Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick haven't met for five seasons in a competitive match. As two of the members of the United States Davis Cup team, there still won't be any secret as to what the other wants to do and that is namely dictate behind a huge serve and crushing forehand.
Sam Querrey is no longer the player that some American fans would have hoped could be the next Grand Slam Champion from this nation and it is John Isner who burdens that pressure for the most part. However, neither is really someone that people would back to win a Slam because of limited return games.
Of the two, Isner has been much more consistent and has been dominant when playing in the United States on the hard courts and I think he will have the edge in this one. Querrey is a big man that will get his racquet on more balls than some, but he also has the tendency to throw in a sloppy game or two or serve and that is where Isner can pounce.
It is Querrey who holds a 2-1 head to head advantage between these players, but Isner has improved markedly since 2010 while Querrey has stood still and I like the higher Ranked American to come through 76, 64.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Barbora Zahlavova Strycova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
John Isner - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-5, + 2.30 Units (24 Units Staked, + 9.58% Yield)
Thursday, 12 February 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (February 12th)
We have almost reached the business end of the tennis tournaments this week and I finally believe there are some picks worth backing after taking a cautious approach to earlier in the week. I just hope that cautious approach pays dividends at the end of the week.
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games v Andreas Seppi: It has been a strong start to the 2015 season for Andreas Seppi, but he has got an awful lot of tennis in his legs over the last couple of weeks and that may lead to a touch of fatigue. It won't help that he is coming up against an in-form Tomas Berdych who has won the last 5 matches between these pair either and I think the big Czech player could be tough to stop.
The last four wins for Berdych over Seppi have come fairly easily and he would have covered this number of games in three of those wins. As long as Berdych serves well, he should keep Seppi off-balance in this one and be able to dictate the tempo of the match.
The Seppi serve can be something of a hindrance at times, especially the second serve, and that is where Berdych can have success and force some break point chances in this one. He has to be clinical when those come along, but Berdych is solid enough off both wings to really keep the pressure on the Italian who may just be a little fatigued after reaching the Final in Zagreb last week.
Seppi had to come through a three set match in the First Round here against Robin Haase and I do think this will all play a part, especially if Berdych starts off as quickly as he did against Tobias Kamke.
Milos Raonic - 3.5 games v Simone Bolelli: Milos Raonic was not at his best in his First Round win over Andrey Kuznetsov, but he still came through comfortably enough- he will have to raise his game to another gear when he takes on Simone Bolelli who was a much more comfortable winner in the First Round and has once again become a feature on the main Tour.
For a long time it seemed Bolelli was going to be consigned to playing Challenger events with a once in a while foray onto the main Tour, but the Italian has improved over the last few months and can be dangerous on the indoor hard courts. Bolelli has a decent serve which can see him holding serve fairly comfortably, although he is never far away from having a complete meltdown on serve and making too many errors to present a gift of a break.
Anything like that could be curtains for him if Raonic is serving as he was in the final two sets a couple of days ago. That will also mean scoreboard pressure on Bolelli who could be playing catch up in sets which may lead to other errors that can help Raonic take control of this match.
A first set tie-breaker wouldn't be a huge surprise, but Raonic could pull away if he takes that and come through 76, 63.
Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Carlos Berlocq has won the last four matches against Santiago Giraldo and he has the game to irritate and extract errors from the Colombian and work his way through to the Quarter Final in Sao Paulo.
Berlocq saves his best tennis for the hard courts these days and it has to be said that he hasn't played Giraldo for eighteen months, but I am still surprised that he has won three of the last four against this opponent on a hard court. The other did come on the red dirt, and they have all been fairly tough matches.
That is less of a surprise to me considering the hit or miss nature of the way Giraldo plays- he is a very aggressive player that likes to stay on the attack, but there are times when he is just an error-making machine that sees games quickly get past him. Berlocq is the kind of opponent that will thrive on that, even if it means losing a few service games when Giraldo is 'hot' and getting enough balls in play can eventually wear down the Colombian from a mental standpoint.
This match may need three sets to separate them again, but I think Berlocq continues his dominance of the head to head and works his way through.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: Fernando Verdasco will have been disappointed with his Semi Final defeat at the hands of Feliciano Lopez last week in Quito, but he remains in the mood to make up for it if his First Round win here is anything to go by. He might get a few pointers from his friend Lopez in how to deal with Dusan Lajovic after the Croatian almost beat Lopez earlier in the draw last week before falling apart.
Verdasco, despite the loss last week, is the better clay court player of the two Spaniards and he will be expected to beat Lajovic in this Second Round match, although that will all depend on how he is feeling. There are times when Verdasco throws in some really sloppy performances these days and his serving can be erratic despite a pretty big first serve and being able to back that up with a very heavy forehand.
He can't under-estimate Lajovic who enjoys playing on the clay courts and who reached the Fourth Round at the French Open last season before finding Rafael Nadal too strong, which is really no disgrace. However, the last few months has seen the Croatian do a lot of losing on the court and that has to have an affect on his performances and is an area where Verdasco can take control.
As long as Verdasco brings his better game to the court, he should come through in a fairly routine 63, 64 win.
Martin Klizan - 3.5 games v Joao Souza: Martin Klizan didn't exactly endear himself to the locals in his win over Thomaz Bellucci and he can expect the vocal support for his opponent in this Second Round match, another of the Brazilian hopes. Joao Souza is not in the same league as someone like Klizan, but he could be inspired by his home support, even if he has not made the Quarter Final 8 previous visits to Sao Paulo.
Souza is a big man which means his serve can be effective, although his movement is not the best and mentally he can be worn down by the better plays. All of that should normally apply to Martin Klizan even if the Slovakian is the epitome of an inconsistent player that can be hard to read at the best of times.
Ask Rafael Nadal- Klizan has a decent game that should make him a dangerous player on the Tour, but I am not convinced he has it all going in between the ears where it is as important at this level as your actuals skill with a racquet. He can make some silly errors and also get down on himself which will give Souza a chance, although I am still expecting the higher Ranked player to move into the Quarter Final.
I just think it will be tough for Souza to win this match if Klizan isn't gift-wrapping it for him and that the Brazilian has shown he finds it tough to maintain the level to compete with the top end of the Tour. If Klizan can hang early on, he can come through this match with a 64, 63 win and move into his second Quarter Final of 2015.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Annika Beck: Karolina Pliskova has made a considerable leap up the World Rankings over the last twelve months as she has backed up her impressive first serve and I expect that shot to be a main reason she is able to overcome Annika Beck in this Second Round match.
I do respect the way Beck seems to show a lot of fight in her matches, but her second serve is a real liability and prevented her achieving consistent results in my opinion. I would expect Pliskova to dominate off that shot and able to really dictate the match on her racquet, although Beck has the defensive skills to frustrate opponents.
However, the indoor hard court conditions should favour her aggressive game against the defence of Beck and that should aid Pliskova to come through this match in fairly routine fashion. Beck was an easy winner in the First Round and has pushed Simona Halep to three sets earlier this season so could be a force to be reckoned with, but I just think Pliskova's level is a little a too high at the moment and she will be able to punish the Beck serve.
I am expecting breaks of serve in this one but also think Pliskova eventually prevails 64, 64.
Mona Barthel + 4.5 games v Eugenie Bouchard: On first glance, this looks like a lot of games for Eugenie Bouchard to be giving up, especially as she hasn't played since the Australian Open. Last season, Bouchard was beaten in three matches following Grand Slam lay offs and was also pushed to three sets by Mona Barthel in the fourth of those matches and this has the feel of another tight match.
Barthel has perhaps stagnated over the last couple of seasons after being seen as a breakthrough star on the WTA circuit, but she has the game to cause Bouchard all sorts of problems if the Canadian is a little rusty.
It has seen Bouchard make a lot of errors when she isn't quite up to speed with the courts and Barthel will have every chance of stealing a set which makes this number of games look very appealing. Of course, Bouchard can also put together some unplayable tennis which makes her dangerous, as she can reel off a lot of games in succession, but having not played for a couple of weeks could be a real factor in this one.
I do think Bouchard wins the match, I just don't believe it will be as straight-forward as the layers do and taking the games looks a sound move with the expectation that Barthel is going to have enough in the locker to push the Canadian in this Second Round match.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Martin Klizan - 3.5 Games @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Mona Barthel + 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-2, + 0.90 Units (10 Units Staked, + 9% Yield)
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games v Andreas Seppi: It has been a strong start to the 2015 season for Andreas Seppi, but he has got an awful lot of tennis in his legs over the last couple of weeks and that may lead to a touch of fatigue. It won't help that he is coming up against an in-form Tomas Berdych who has won the last 5 matches between these pair either and I think the big Czech player could be tough to stop.
The last four wins for Berdych over Seppi have come fairly easily and he would have covered this number of games in three of those wins. As long as Berdych serves well, he should keep Seppi off-balance in this one and be able to dictate the tempo of the match.
The Seppi serve can be something of a hindrance at times, especially the second serve, and that is where Berdych can have success and force some break point chances in this one. He has to be clinical when those come along, but Berdych is solid enough off both wings to really keep the pressure on the Italian who may just be a little fatigued after reaching the Final in Zagreb last week.
Seppi had to come through a three set match in the First Round here against Robin Haase and I do think this will all play a part, especially if Berdych starts off as quickly as he did against Tobias Kamke.
Milos Raonic - 3.5 games v Simone Bolelli: Milos Raonic was not at his best in his First Round win over Andrey Kuznetsov, but he still came through comfortably enough- he will have to raise his game to another gear when he takes on Simone Bolelli who was a much more comfortable winner in the First Round and has once again become a feature on the main Tour.
For a long time it seemed Bolelli was going to be consigned to playing Challenger events with a once in a while foray onto the main Tour, but the Italian has improved over the last few months and can be dangerous on the indoor hard courts. Bolelli has a decent serve which can see him holding serve fairly comfortably, although he is never far away from having a complete meltdown on serve and making too many errors to present a gift of a break.
Anything like that could be curtains for him if Raonic is serving as he was in the final two sets a couple of days ago. That will also mean scoreboard pressure on Bolelli who could be playing catch up in sets which may lead to other errors that can help Raonic take control of this match.
A first set tie-breaker wouldn't be a huge surprise, but Raonic could pull away if he takes that and come through 76, 63.
Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Carlos Berlocq has won the last four matches against Santiago Giraldo and he has the game to irritate and extract errors from the Colombian and work his way through to the Quarter Final in Sao Paulo.
Berlocq saves his best tennis for the hard courts these days and it has to be said that he hasn't played Giraldo for eighteen months, but I am still surprised that he has won three of the last four against this opponent on a hard court. The other did come on the red dirt, and they have all been fairly tough matches.
That is less of a surprise to me considering the hit or miss nature of the way Giraldo plays- he is a very aggressive player that likes to stay on the attack, but there are times when he is just an error-making machine that sees games quickly get past him. Berlocq is the kind of opponent that will thrive on that, even if it means losing a few service games when Giraldo is 'hot' and getting enough balls in play can eventually wear down the Colombian from a mental standpoint.
This match may need three sets to separate them again, but I think Berlocq continues his dominance of the head to head and works his way through.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: Fernando Verdasco will have been disappointed with his Semi Final defeat at the hands of Feliciano Lopez last week in Quito, but he remains in the mood to make up for it if his First Round win here is anything to go by. He might get a few pointers from his friend Lopez in how to deal with Dusan Lajovic after the Croatian almost beat Lopez earlier in the draw last week before falling apart.
Verdasco, despite the loss last week, is the better clay court player of the two Spaniards and he will be expected to beat Lajovic in this Second Round match, although that will all depend on how he is feeling. There are times when Verdasco throws in some really sloppy performances these days and his serving can be erratic despite a pretty big first serve and being able to back that up with a very heavy forehand.
He can't under-estimate Lajovic who enjoys playing on the clay courts and who reached the Fourth Round at the French Open last season before finding Rafael Nadal too strong, which is really no disgrace. However, the last few months has seen the Croatian do a lot of losing on the court and that has to have an affect on his performances and is an area where Verdasco can take control.
As long as Verdasco brings his better game to the court, he should come through in a fairly routine 63, 64 win.
Martin Klizan - 3.5 games v Joao Souza: Martin Klizan didn't exactly endear himself to the locals in his win over Thomaz Bellucci and he can expect the vocal support for his opponent in this Second Round match, another of the Brazilian hopes. Joao Souza is not in the same league as someone like Klizan, but he could be inspired by his home support, even if he has not made the Quarter Final 8 previous visits to Sao Paulo.
Souza is a big man which means his serve can be effective, although his movement is not the best and mentally he can be worn down by the better plays. All of that should normally apply to Martin Klizan even if the Slovakian is the epitome of an inconsistent player that can be hard to read at the best of times.
Ask Rafael Nadal- Klizan has a decent game that should make him a dangerous player on the Tour, but I am not convinced he has it all going in between the ears where it is as important at this level as your actuals skill with a racquet. He can make some silly errors and also get down on himself which will give Souza a chance, although I am still expecting the higher Ranked player to move into the Quarter Final.
I just think it will be tough for Souza to win this match if Klizan isn't gift-wrapping it for him and that the Brazilian has shown he finds it tough to maintain the level to compete with the top end of the Tour. If Klizan can hang early on, he can come through this match with a 64, 63 win and move into his second Quarter Final of 2015.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Annika Beck: Karolina Pliskova has made a considerable leap up the World Rankings over the last twelve months as she has backed up her impressive first serve and I expect that shot to be a main reason she is able to overcome Annika Beck in this Second Round match.
I do respect the way Beck seems to show a lot of fight in her matches, but her second serve is a real liability and prevented her achieving consistent results in my opinion. I would expect Pliskova to dominate off that shot and able to really dictate the match on her racquet, although Beck has the defensive skills to frustrate opponents.
However, the indoor hard court conditions should favour her aggressive game against the defence of Beck and that should aid Pliskova to come through this match in fairly routine fashion. Beck was an easy winner in the First Round and has pushed Simona Halep to three sets earlier this season so could be a force to be reckoned with, but I just think Pliskova's level is a little a too high at the moment and she will be able to punish the Beck serve.
I am expecting breaks of serve in this one but also think Pliskova eventually prevails 64, 64.
Mona Barthel + 4.5 games v Eugenie Bouchard: On first glance, this looks like a lot of games for Eugenie Bouchard to be giving up, especially as she hasn't played since the Australian Open. Last season, Bouchard was beaten in three matches following Grand Slam lay offs and was also pushed to three sets by Mona Barthel in the fourth of those matches and this has the feel of another tight match.
Barthel has perhaps stagnated over the last couple of seasons after being seen as a breakthrough star on the WTA circuit, but she has the game to cause Bouchard all sorts of problems if the Canadian is a little rusty.
It has seen Bouchard make a lot of errors when she isn't quite up to speed with the courts and Barthel will have every chance of stealing a set which makes this number of games look very appealing. Of course, Bouchard can also put together some unplayable tennis which makes her dangerous, as she can reel off a lot of games in succession, but having not played for a couple of weeks could be a real factor in this one.
I do think Bouchard wins the match, I just don't believe it will be as straight-forward as the layers do and taking the games looks a sound move with the expectation that Barthel is going to have enough in the locker to push the Canadian in this Second Round match.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Martin Klizan - 3.5 Games @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Mona Barthel + 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-2, + 0.90 Units (10 Units Staked, + 9% Yield)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)