It's been a long day today which means I have not had the time to write out my full thoughts on the Semi Final matches that are taking place on Saturday.
My focus for the Tennis Picks is going to be on the events being played in London and Mallorca to close out what has been a strong week.
Hopefully one more positive day can be put on the board to ensure a solid return from the last week and add to the season totals. On Sunday we also have the beginning of the events in Antalya and Eastbourne which will get going early so they can be concluded next Saturday ahead of the third Grand Slam of the season.
Picks over the next few days may be less frequent as players turn their focus to Wimbledon, but you can find some nice angles at this time too. With limited grass court tennis played, we do get to see some more familiar names in the final week before this Grand Slam is played so there may be more opportunities.
First things first, let's get this week concluded in the best possible way.
MY PICKS: Anastasija Sevastova - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev-Gilles Simon Under 21.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 3.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 29-15, + 23.06 Units (89 Units Staked, + 25.91% Yield)
Showing posts with label London. Show all posts
Showing posts with label London. Show all posts
Saturday, 22 June 2019
Sunday, 19 June 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (June 19th)
This has been a terrible week for the tennis picks, but I have to question whether I've had much luck when clear opportunities are missed by the players I have backed.
Roger Federer might been beaten in his Semi Final with Alexander Zverev, but he had break points in the first and third game of the final set and taking one of those might have changed the entire finish of the match.
Even more frustrating was Coco Vandeweghe getting into a 62, 21 position with the break and later missing a 62, 33, 15-40 position to really take the match by the scruff of the neck.
Frustrating times to say the least.
Andy Murray - 2.5 games v Milos Raonic: There has never been a five time winner of the event held at Queens club in West London, but Andy Murray is on the brink of making history. He is once again in the Final of an event he has used to prepare for Wimbledon since turning professional and Andy Murray is the favourite to beat Milos Raonic who is playing in his first Final here.
On the face of things you would think Raonic would be perfectly suited to grass and he is a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist. However the reality has been a player that has struggled for consistency on the grass and bringing in John McEnroe to his team should have its benefits going forward.
The Canadian has a huge serve which can make him very difficult to play against on a surface like grass, but he isn't always at his best trying to follow that up. Now he will also be facing a player that is an exceptional returner of serve and who will make Raonic earn some of the games that he would usually come through with a number of unreturned serves or producing aces.
It can build pressure and frustrate Raonic and I think Murray will be too good in this one as he beats the Canadian for a fifth time in a row.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Roger Federer might been beaten in his Semi Final with Alexander Zverev, but he had break points in the first and third game of the final set and taking one of those might have changed the entire finish of the match.
Even more frustrating was Coco Vandeweghe getting into a 62, 21 position with the break and later missing a 62, 33, 15-40 position to really take the match by the scruff of the neck.
Frustrating times to say the least.
Andy Murray - 2.5 games v Milos Raonic: There has never been a five time winner of the event held at Queens club in West London, but Andy Murray is on the brink of making history. He is once again in the Final of an event he has used to prepare for Wimbledon since turning professional and Andy Murray is the favourite to beat Milos Raonic who is playing in his first Final here.
On the face of things you would think Raonic would be perfectly suited to grass and he is a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist. However the reality has been a player that has struggled for consistency on the grass and bringing in John McEnroe to his team should have its benefits going forward.
The Canadian has a huge serve which can make him very difficult to play against on a surface like grass, but he isn't always at his best trying to follow that up. Now he will also be facing a player that is an exceptional returner of serve and who will make Raonic earn some of the games that he would usually come through with a number of unreturned serves or producing aces.
It can build pressure and frustrate Raonic and I think Murray will be too good in this one as he beats the Canadian for a fifth time in a row.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Saturday, 14 June 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (June 14th)
Once in a while, in a long season on the Tour and making picks on a weekly basis, I seem to enter the twilight zone and that is what it has felt like this week ever since Heather Watson blew a big lead in a losing effort on Tuesday. The last three days have been crazy with picks coming so close, but finishing so far from the winner's enclosure, and this is a damage limitation week on what has been a decent season to this point.
With that in mind, both Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer are both still running in their respective tournaments this week as we reach the Semi Finals. Both have tough Semi Finals, but would be considered the favourites to win the title if they can come through these matches, although that is far from straight-forward with Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori standing in the way.
Wawrinka has played very solid tennis all week and Dimitrov has never beaten him, while Nishikori has beaten Federer the last two times they have met.
If, and it is a big if, Dimitrov can come through his Semi Final, the week might not be as tragic as it is looking, but the real way I can turn this around is if both players win the tournaments at Queens and Halle.
Radek Stepanek v Feliciano Lopez: Over the years, Radek Stepanek and Feliciano Lopez have both enjoyed plenty of success on the grass courts, but it is something of a surprise that they have never met on the surface despite that success.
However, it is not the first time that these players will have played one another and Stepanek has dominated the head to head with a 9-2 record, although the last four matches have been split between them. It has been around eighteen months since they last met when Stepanek recorded a surprising straight sets win over Lopez at the Australian Open.
I was critical of Tomas Berdych on Twitter that he wasn't making any adjustments to Lopez' game in the Quarter Final and I think that is where Stepanek will show off his on court clear thinking. The Czech player will slice and dice, while attacking the net to try and keep Lopez off guard, but he has to also hope the Spaniard's serving comes down a level from where it has been the last three days.
Lopez has had some long matches, but any fatigue is cancelled out by Stepanek participating in the Doubles here too and I think it will come to a couple of big points here and there.
On the face of it, Lopez is the right favourite, but I think Stepanek can addle the Spaniard's mind and that will give him a real chance of making the Final here.
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Shuai Zhang: There are a lot of positives to say about Shuai Zhang off the ground with some of the accuracy and power she displayed in her win over Sloane Stephens in the Quarter Final, but she was also helped considerably by a poor performance from the American.
While Stephens is someone that I won't be backing again any time soon, especially outside of the Slams, Ana Ivanovic is unlikely to check out mentally as quickly as the American did. Ivanovic has been dominant all through the week and that has shown with the comfort she has won her first three matches in Birmingham.
The Serb hits the ball very well and she has generally been improving as she looks to find the form that took her to World Number 1 and the French Open title. Ivanovic can struggle with her serve at times and that may give Zhang an 'in' for the match, but Ivanovic is also likely to offer much more resistance on the serve she sees.
With the aggressive play and power that Ivanovic possesses, I expect her to be too strong for Zhang and come through with a 61, 64 win.
Casey Dellacqua - 3.5 games v Barbora Zahlavova Strycova: I don't think too many people would have had these two players as potential Semi Finalists in Birmingham this week, although both have a decent grass court pedigree to perhaps think it is less of a surprise as initially thought.
Both Casey Dellacqua and Barbora Zahlavova Strycova have performed well this week, but the latter has a lot more tennis in her legs having to go three sets in each of her first three matches before a more straight-forward win on Friday.
Dealing with a lefty serve is always an issue for players, while Dellacqua should also have the edge in terms of power, and the Australian is also having a career year to this point and would dearly love to reach the Final.
She'll have to stay mentally tough against Zahlavova Strycova who can frustrate her opponents with solid and consistent groundstrokes, but I do think Dellacqua will be able to find her way to a 64, 64 win if she can control her nerves.
MY PICKS: Radek Stepanek @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Casey Dellacqua - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-17, - 18.44 Units (50 Units Staked, - 36.88% Yield)
Friday, 13 June 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (June 13th)
I could have been forgiving for mistaking yesterday with Friday the 13th with some of the terrible luck that afflicted the picks and this is shaping up to me the worst week of the season bar another three day turn around.
You know, I generally step back and take a look at myself when picks go south, but on Thursday, I tweeted fairly early on that I had a feeling it was going to be one of those days when the little luck I need is not going to be on my side.
The Sloane Stephens pick was disappointing in the fact that she won a set 61 yet still couldn't cover what is a relative low handicap mark, but it was the action at Queens that really sickened me.
Tomas Berdych and Kevin Anderson had a boatload of chances in their matches which would have seen them cover the handicap marks with a plenty of room to spare if they had taken them. To make matters worse, they couldn't prevent their opponents from taking the limited chances they manufactured and that is highlighted by this statistic: Berdych/Anderson had 30 bp chances in the first two sets of their matches, but could only take 4 chances; on the other hand, their opponents had 5 bp chances and took 3 of those chances to prevent what should have been easy wins.
It kept going- Grigor Dimitrov served to complete a 63 first set win, but was broken at that point and ended up with a 76, 64 win meaning he missed the cover by half a game.
Don't get me wrong though, there were a couple of poor picks, but those three should have all won which would have prevented a disastrous day taking place and I was extremely frustrated when I was watching the limited tennis I did on Thursday.
So the only good thing to come out of Thursday was Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer both moving into the Quarter Finals as a couple of my outright picks, but the way the week has gone, I am not going to go anywhere near counting my chickens with those two players.
The worst feeling is like I had on Thursday when you know you are on the right players, but little things don't go your way which leads to a poor record for the week. My only hope is that I have hit rock bottom when it comes to poor luck as well as the poor decisions I have made, and the last three days of the week changes the game.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Yen-Hsun Lu: The final Quarter Final to be played in Halle is the only one that interests me on Friday as Roger Federer is back in action against Yen-Hsun Lu, the latter who surprised Ivo Karlovic in the Second Round.
Federer had to work much harder than expected to beat Joao Sousa in the Second Round match on Thursday, but he created plenty of chances to break serve and admitted that he took a little time to really get his eye in when it came to return of serve.
He'll need to be better with any chances he gets against Lu who has a decent serve and groundies that makes him a tough player to break on the grass courts. Lu has a decent punch, but he has already played five straight tie-breakers this week and that can take a toll on a physical and mental level, especially when going up against someone as good as Federer can be.
There might not be a lot of chances for Federer, but he should still have enough in the locker to come through 63, 75 in this Quarter Final.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: These two players have had plenty of competitive matches in the past and this could be another one when they meet in the Quarter Final at Queens Club. The exit of Andy Murray will make both Feliciano Lopez and Tomas Berdych confident they can go all the way to the title if they can negotiate what looks the toughest match they could potentially play before Sunday.
You do have to feel that Lopez will be the more confident on the grass courts of the two players, especially if Berdych is as generous at break points as he was on Thursday, while the slice can make life difficult for Berdych.
However, Berdych's big serve was walking effectively for much of his Third Round win over Adrian Mannarino and I can see him having a little more joy forcing Lopez backwards on the Spaniard's service games.
The first set is likely to end in a tie-break and that is going to be critical to the outcome of this match- if Berdych can play those big points well, he could come through 76, 64.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: Alexandr Dolgopolov has quietly made his way through to the Quarter Final and has the game that can be very effective on the grass courts if he is bringing his top game to the court.
However, that isn't always the case with Dolgopolov who can sometimes give his opponents too much of an opportunity to break serve with a low percentage of first serves being put into play. If Dolgopolov does that in this match, Grigor Dimitrov will have a real chance to move through to another Semi Final at Queens having done the same thing in 2012.
Dimitrov has had a couple of lapses of concentration on his own serve during the week, but has generally served effectively and been able to use his slice and heavier groundstrokes to dictate points. He also has a decent serve and the way he approaches the game makes him very effective on the grass courts.
I can see the match going three sets to be honest, but Dolgopolov can collapse in matches at times when he falls behind and I like Dimitrov to come through 64, 46, 63.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Marinko Matosevic: I personally expected either Marin Cilic or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to be competing in the Quarter Final from this part of the draw, but it was Marinko Matosevic who has seen off both of those players and now will be looking to take out the Number 1 Seed in the draw.
It has been an impressive run for the Australian to this point after winning his first Grand Slam match at Roland Garros last month, but he might be facing the toughest challenge of the week against an in-form Stan Wawrinka.
The Swiss Australian Open Champion dismissed Sam Querrey while barely breaking a sweat on Thursday in the Third Round which was the only match he has needed to win to reach the Quarter Final. He received a victory through a retirement for Marcos Baghdatis before that, but the performance on Thursday suggests Wawrinka will be too tough for Matosevic to handle if he gets close to that form again.
Wawrinka can serve very big and he has enough aggression in his return game to benefit from the second serves that he may see and I think he will come through with a 64, 64 win.
Sloane Stephens - 3.5 games v Shuai Zhang: I do sometimes get a little irritated with the attitude that Sloane Stephens shows on court as her body language can only be an inspiration to her opponent. There is also a different approach to matches in the lower tournaments on the Tour compared with the success the American has had in the Grand Slams and it still says a lot that Stephens has yet to reach a Final since turning professional.
This match at least gives her a chance to take another step towards that as I would expect the power to be a little too much for Shuai Zhang, especially if their previous two meetings are anything to go by.
Stephens has dominated those without losing a set and I do think she is the more likely winner, although her lack of concentration at times makes her matches harder than they need to be. That was the case against Alison Riske on Thursday, but I would expect more from Stephens in this match and like her to come through 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-15, - 16.28 Units (44 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)
You know, I generally step back and take a look at myself when picks go south, but on Thursday, I tweeted fairly early on that I had a feeling it was going to be one of those days when the little luck I need is not going to be on my side.
The Sloane Stephens pick was disappointing in the fact that she won a set 61 yet still couldn't cover what is a relative low handicap mark, but it was the action at Queens that really sickened me.
Tomas Berdych and Kevin Anderson had a boatload of chances in their matches which would have seen them cover the handicap marks with a plenty of room to spare if they had taken them. To make matters worse, they couldn't prevent their opponents from taking the limited chances they manufactured and that is highlighted by this statistic: Berdych/Anderson had 30 bp chances in the first two sets of their matches, but could only take 4 chances; on the other hand, their opponents had 5 bp chances and took 3 of those chances to prevent what should have been easy wins.
It kept going- Grigor Dimitrov served to complete a 63 first set win, but was broken at that point and ended up with a 76, 64 win meaning he missed the cover by half a game.
Don't get me wrong though, there were a couple of poor picks, but those three should have all won which would have prevented a disastrous day taking place and I was extremely frustrated when I was watching the limited tennis I did on Thursday.
So the only good thing to come out of Thursday was Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer both moving into the Quarter Finals as a couple of my outright picks, but the way the week has gone, I am not going to go anywhere near counting my chickens with those two players.
The worst feeling is like I had on Thursday when you know you are on the right players, but little things don't go your way which leads to a poor record for the week. My only hope is that I have hit rock bottom when it comes to poor luck as well as the poor decisions I have made, and the last three days of the week changes the game.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Yen-Hsun Lu: The final Quarter Final to be played in Halle is the only one that interests me on Friday as Roger Federer is back in action against Yen-Hsun Lu, the latter who surprised Ivo Karlovic in the Second Round.
Federer had to work much harder than expected to beat Joao Sousa in the Second Round match on Thursday, but he created plenty of chances to break serve and admitted that he took a little time to really get his eye in when it came to return of serve.
He'll need to be better with any chances he gets against Lu who has a decent serve and groundies that makes him a tough player to break on the grass courts. Lu has a decent punch, but he has already played five straight tie-breakers this week and that can take a toll on a physical and mental level, especially when going up against someone as good as Federer can be.
There might not be a lot of chances for Federer, but he should still have enough in the locker to come through 63, 75 in this Quarter Final.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: These two players have had plenty of competitive matches in the past and this could be another one when they meet in the Quarter Final at Queens Club. The exit of Andy Murray will make both Feliciano Lopez and Tomas Berdych confident they can go all the way to the title if they can negotiate what looks the toughest match they could potentially play before Sunday.
You do have to feel that Lopez will be the more confident on the grass courts of the two players, especially if Berdych is as generous at break points as he was on Thursday, while the slice can make life difficult for Berdych.
However, Berdych's big serve was walking effectively for much of his Third Round win over Adrian Mannarino and I can see him having a little more joy forcing Lopez backwards on the Spaniard's service games.
The first set is likely to end in a tie-break and that is going to be critical to the outcome of this match- if Berdych can play those big points well, he could come through 76, 64.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: Alexandr Dolgopolov has quietly made his way through to the Quarter Final and has the game that can be very effective on the grass courts if he is bringing his top game to the court.
However, that isn't always the case with Dolgopolov who can sometimes give his opponents too much of an opportunity to break serve with a low percentage of first serves being put into play. If Dolgopolov does that in this match, Grigor Dimitrov will have a real chance to move through to another Semi Final at Queens having done the same thing in 2012.
Dimitrov has had a couple of lapses of concentration on his own serve during the week, but has generally served effectively and been able to use his slice and heavier groundstrokes to dictate points. He also has a decent serve and the way he approaches the game makes him very effective on the grass courts.
I can see the match going three sets to be honest, but Dolgopolov can collapse in matches at times when he falls behind and I like Dimitrov to come through 64, 46, 63.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Marinko Matosevic: I personally expected either Marin Cilic or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to be competing in the Quarter Final from this part of the draw, but it was Marinko Matosevic who has seen off both of those players and now will be looking to take out the Number 1 Seed in the draw.
It has been an impressive run for the Australian to this point after winning his first Grand Slam match at Roland Garros last month, but he might be facing the toughest challenge of the week against an in-form Stan Wawrinka.
The Swiss Australian Open Champion dismissed Sam Querrey while barely breaking a sweat on Thursday in the Third Round which was the only match he has needed to win to reach the Quarter Final. He received a victory through a retirement for Marcos Baghdatis before that, but the performance on Thursday suggests Wawrinka will be too tough for Matosevic to handle if he gets close to that form again.
Wawrinka can serve very big and he has enough aggression in his return game to benefit from the second serves that he may see and I think he will come through with a 64, 64 win.
Sloane Stephens - 3.5 games v Shuai Zhang: I do sometimes get a little irritated with the attitude that Sloane Stephens shows on court as her body language can only be an inspiration to her opponent. There is also a different approach to matches in the lower tournaments on the Tour compared with the success the American has had in the Grand Slams and it still says a lot that Stephens has yet to reach a Final since turning professional.
This match at least gives her a chance to take another step towards that as I would expect the power to be a little too much for Shuai Zhang, especially if their previous two meetings are anything to go by.
Stephens has dominated those without losing a set and I do think she is the more likely winner, although her lack of concentration at times makes her matches harder than they need to be. That was the case against Alison Riske on Thursday, but I would expect more from Stephens in this match and like her to come through 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-15, - 16.28 Units (44 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)
Thursday, 12 June 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (June 12th)
That was as bad a day as I have suffered during this entire 2014 season as nothing seemed to go as planned and I am going to blame my headache from Tuesday as the reason for the terrible picks I made.
On a more serious note, both Andy Murray and Nicolas Mahut should have won their matches with enough comfort to cover the handicaps that had been set, but both missed plenty of chances and the latter couldn't win the match at 3-0 up in the final set tie-breaker before losing it 7-5.
Some of the picks just plain stunk and I will only have myself to blame for those and not bad luck- simply put, some picks didn't have a chance and that was down to poor research on my part.
Hopefully that isn't something that happens too often, but I have always taken the ups and downs and tried to treat them the same- it is an eleven month season, there will be times when it doesn't go well, but also times when it does and you have to keep level-headed and try and get more of the latter days than the ones we saw on Wednesday.
With the World Cup starting on Thursday, I am guessing tennis will be losing the back pages of the newspapers for the next few weeks, even with Wimbledon starting especially in England where they were dominated with 'hope' of a new British Champion. Now Andy Murray has won that tournament, I can only see a few headlines being kept aside for that event unless England have a terrible Group.
On the other hand, I will be making picks through the next month as I have been for the season and am just hoping for a much more productive performance than I found on Wednesday.
The Third Round is going to be underway at Queens and Birmingham on Thursday and Halle will see the Quarter Final line up completed.
Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 games v Kenny de Schepper: There is no doubt that Kenny de Schepper has a big serve that aids him mightily on the grass courts, but I can't help feel he is also being a little over-rated because of the win he had over Ernests Gulbis on Wednesday.
On paper, that does look an impressive win- but Gulbis was coming off a long two weeks at Roland Garros and has shown little grass court appetite in the past so perhaps it wasn't as big a surprise as initially it seems.
The Frenchman also got to this stage at Queens last season, but he is now coming up against Feliciano Lopez who is very comfortable on the grass courts himself and had an impressive straight sets win over Lleyton Hewitt in the Second Round.
Lopez is very confident on the grass and his slice will pose de Schepper some problems with the big man having to get lower than he may wish to get hold of that ball. It can be tough to do that consistently, while he might not have too much joy against the Lopez serve either if the Spaniard is going anything close to what he was on Wednesday.
Last season, de Schepper took some comfortable losses on the grass courts despite the confidence he must have earned from the wins he had and I can Lopez finding a way to a 76, 63 win in this one.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Tomas Berdych didn't always look that convincing in his Second Round win over James Duckworth and I am not sure that his run to the Final at Wimbledon in 2010 is going to be repeated any time soon.
However, he should have too much in the locker for Adrian Mannarino despite the latter having some of his better results on the Tour on grass, including beating Juan Martin Del Potro here three years ago. He also reached the Fourth Round at Wimbledon last year which is a surprise considering the serve he possesses not being a real weapon to earn the cheap points.
Mannarino works hard on the court and clearly can play aggressively enough to come through matches and he has been an easy winner in the first two Rounds here. Of course, Tomas Berdych is another step up in class from what the Frenchman has seen so far and I think the first match on grass gives the Czech man something to build upon.
He will have to play a lot better than on Tuesday, but Berdych should have enough to come through 75, 63.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: Somehow, from the edge of defeat, Edouard Roger-Vasselin dug deep to beat Nicolas Mahut on Wednesday, but it will be interesting to see how much he has left in the tank as he gets set to take on Grigor Dimitrov in the Third Round.
It has been an impressive week considering Roger-Vasselin was playing in the French Open men's Doubles Final this past weekend although he has needed three sets in his first two wins at Queens. That means he has a lot of tennis in his legs coming into this match and I can see Dimitrov exposing any fatigue that may be beginning to set in.
Roger-Vasselin has played the big points well this week, but Dimitrov has a decent serve (when he isn't throwing in the double faults that were a feature in his first match) and good, solid groundstrokes that should give him the edge in the match.
I do think Dimitrov is in line for a big week and I think he will come through with a 64, 64 win.
Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Radek Stepanek: It was a 64, 64 scoreline, but Andy Murray was far more comfortable than that would indicate in his Second Round win on Wednesday and I think he will only build on that.
That isn't underestimating Radek Stepanek who is very comfortable on the grass courts with the ability to serve-volley and use plenty of variation to make life difficult for his opponents.
However, Murray doesn't mind those fun and games on the court and I think he will use that to his advantage. He will be happy trading the slices and drop shots through the match and I expect Murray to feel very confident on the court and not be worried by the antics of Stepanek.
Murray has dominated the head to head and will know what to expect from Stepanek as he moves into the Quarter Final with a 63, 64 win.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: Sergiy Stakhovsky will be able to dine out in his win over Roger Federer at Wimbledon in 2013 for a few years, but I also feel that the layers are taking no chances on him because of that one victory on the grass courts.
Stakhovsky is in line to have the most wins in a single season since 2011, but it has to be said that his recent form doesn't come close to matching the Semi Final appearance he had at Sydney back in January. This is only the second time that Stakhovsky has won two matches in a row since then and while he will cause some problems, I would imagine Kevin Anderson being too good for him.
The big South African has a decent grass court pedigree and is a former Quarter Finalist here, although he did need Stakhovsky to retire from a match he was dominating that year to find his way through that Round. However, Anderson is much improved since 2012 and just seems to be a little more confident in his own game since then.
There will likely only be a few points here and there that decides the outcome of this match, but Anderson might find the edge in a 76, 63 win.
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v Sam Querrey: Some of the matches that Stan Wawrinka has played on the grass courts suggests he should have had more success on the surface- that was shown in reaching the Final at Hertogenbosch last season, but following that up with a First Round exit at Wimbledon.
This is essentially the first grass court match he will really have played this season after having just five games against Marcos Baghdatis before the latter retired. Wawrinka will now face a Sam Querrey that has struggled for much of 2014, but has won back to back matches on the main Tour for only the third time this calendar year.
The American is a former winner at Queens, but he was fortunate to come through the First Round against Jeremy Chardy and then beat an overmatched Denis Kudla. This match is raising the level again and Stan Wawrinka should be able to come through, albeit in three sets.
Wawrinka has been a little up and down since winning the Australian Open, but he is looking to bounce back from an early loss at the French Open and I do think he will be too good as long as he doesn't lose confidence early in the match.
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 games v Alison Riske: Sloane Stephens showed what she can do on a grass court with a comfortable win over Francesca Schiavone on Wednesday and I think she can back that up with victory over her compatriot Alison Riske in this Third Round match.
It won't be easy though as Riske has shown plenty of potential on the grass courts over the last few years, including reaching the Semi Final here in Birmingham after qualifying twelve months ago.
However, Stephens was a Quarter Finalist at Wimbledon last season and her power can give her a real edge on the quicker courts, especially one as low bouncing as the grass courts where the ball also tends to skid through the court.
Stephens' focus and concentration can let her down in some of the 'smaller' events on the Tour, but if she can stay tuned into this match, I would expect her to come through 64, 64.
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Lauren Davis: It was an impressive win for Ana Ivanovic in the Second Round when she crushed Mona Barthel in two sets and I would expect the Serb to back that up with another convincing win over Lauren Davis.
They met earlier this season in a match where Davis won just two games, and the young American has plenty of tennis played already this week with back to back three set wins. Her serve is vulnerable and I can see the aggression of Ivanovic making the difference in the match, especially if the latter is playing as well as she was against Barthel.
There is still some inconsistencies about Ivanovic which is frustrating when backing her to win matches with spreads as big as this, but I also think she is playing some of her better tennis for a couple of years during 2014.
I would hope Ivanovic serves well if she is going to win the match, but I also think she will have a few chances to break Lauren Davis and come through 63, 63.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.18 Unibet (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-9, - 8.28 Units (28 Units Staked, - 29.57% Yield)
On a more serious note, both Andy Murray and Nicolas Mahut should have won their matches with enough comfort to cover the handicaps that had been set, but both missed plenty of chances and the latter couldn't win the match at 3-0 up in the final set tie-breaker before losing it 7-5.
Some of the picks just plain stunk and I will only have myself to blame for those and not bad luck- simply put, some picks didn't have a chance and that was down to poor research on my part.
Hopefully that isn't something that happens too often, but I have always taken the ups and downs and tried to treat them the same- it is an eleven month season, there will be times when it doesn't go well, but also times when it does and you have to keep level-headed and try and get more of the latter days than the ones we saw on Wednesday.
With the World Cup starting on Thursday, I am guessing tennis will be losing the back pages of the newspapers for the next few weeks, even with Wimbledon starting especially in England where they were dominated with 'hope' of a new British Champion. Now Andy Murray has won that tournament, I can only see a few headlines being kept aside for that event unless England have a terrible Group.
On the other hand, I will be making picks through the next month as I have been for the season and am just hoping for a much more productive performance than I found on Wednesday.
The Third Round is going to be underway at Queens and Birmingham on Thursday and Halle will see the Quarter Final line up completed.
Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 games v Kenny de Schepper: There is no doubt that Kenny de Schepper has a big serve that aids him mightily on the grass courts, but I can't help feel he is also being a little over-rated because of the win he had over Ernests Gulbis on Wednesday.
On paper, that does look an impressive win- but Gulbis was coming off a long two weeks at Roland Garros and has shown little grass court appetite in the past so perhaps it wasn't as big a surprise as initially it seems.
The Frenchman also got to this stage at Queens last season, but he is now coming up against Feliciano Lopez who is very comfortable on the grass courts himself and had an impressive straight sets win over Lleyton Hewitt in the Second Round.
Lopez is very confident on the grass and his slice will pose de Schepper some problems with the big man having to get lower than he may wish to get hold of that ball. It can be tough to do that consistently, while he might not have too much joy against the Lopez serve either if the Spaniard is going anything close to what he was on Wednesday.
Last season, de Schepper took some comfortable losses on the grass courts despite the confidence he must have earned from the wins he had and I can Lopez finding a way to a 76, 63 win in this one.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Tomas Berdych didn't always look that convincing in his Second Round win over James Duckworth and I am not sure that his run to the Final at Wimbledon in 2010 is going to be repeated any time soon.
However, he should have too much in the locker for Adrian Mannarino despite the latter having some of his better results on the Tour on grass, including beating Juan Martin Del Potro here three years ago. He also reached the Fourth Round at Wimbledon last year which is a surprise considering the serve he possesses not being a real weapon to earn the cheap points.
Mannarino works hard on the court and clearly can play aggressively enough to come through matches and he has been an easy winner in the first two Rounds here. Of course, Tomas Berdych is another step up in class from what the Frenchman has seen so far and I think the first match on grass gives the Czech man something to build upon.
He will have to play a lot better than on Tuesday, but Berdych should have enough to come through 75, 63.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: Somehow, from the edge of defeat, Edouard Roger-Vasselin dug deep to beat Nicolas Mahut on Wednesday, but it will be interesting to see how much he has left in the tank as he gets set to take on Grigor Dimitrov in the Third Round.
It has been an impressive week considering Roger-Vasselin was playing in the French Open men's Doubles Final this past weekend although he has needed three sets in his first two wins at Queens. That means he has a lot of tennis in his legs coming into this match and I can see Dimitrov exposing any fatigue that may be beginning to set in.
Roger-Vasselin has played the big points well this week, but Dimitrov has a decent serve (when he isn't throwing in the double faults that were a feature in his first match) and good, solid groundstrokes that should give him the edge in the match.
I do think Dimitrov is in line for a big week and I think he will come through with a 64, 64 win.
Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Radek Stepanek: It was a 64, 64 scoreline, but Andy Murray was far more comfortable than that would indicate in his Second Round win on Wednesday and I think he will only build on that.
That isn't underestimating Radek Stepanek who is very comfortable on the grass courts with the ability to serve-volley and use plenty of variation to make life difficult for his opponents.
However, Murray doesn't mind those fun and games on the court and I think he will use that to his advantage. He will be happy trading the slices and drop shots through the match and I expect Murray to feel very confident on the court and not be worried by the antics of Stepanek.
Murray has dominated the head to head and will know what to expect from Stepanek as he moves into the Quarter Final with a 63, 64 win.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: Sergiy Stakhovsky will be able to dine out in his win over Roger Federer at Wimbledon in 2013 for a few years, but I also feel that the layers are taking no chances on him because of that one victory on the grass courts.
Stakhovsky is in line to have the most wins in a single season since 2011, but it has to be said that his recent form doesn't come close to matching the Semi Final appearance he had at Sydney back in January. This is only the second time that Stakhovsky has won two matches in a row since then and while he will cause some problems, I would imagine Kevin Anderson being too good for him.
The big South African has a decent grass court pedigree and is a former Quarter Finalist here, although he did need Stakhovsky to retire from a match he was dominating that year to find his way through that Round. However, Anderson is much improved since 2012 and just seems to be a little more confident in his own game since then.
There will likely only be a few points here and there that decides the outcome of this match, but Anderson might find the edge in a 76, 63 win.
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v Sam Querrey: Some of the matches that Stan Wawrinka has played on the grass courts suggests he should have had more success on the surface- that was shown in reaching the Final at Hertogenbosch last season, but following that up with a First Round exit at Wimbledon.
This is essentially the first grass court match he will really have played this season after having just five games against Marcos Baghdatis before the latter retired. Wawrinka will now face a Sam Querrey that has struggled for much of 2014, but has won back to back matches on the main Tour for only the third time this calendar year.
The American is a former winner at Queens, but he was fortunate to come through the First Round against Jeremy Chardy and then beat an overmatched Denis Kudla. This match is raising the level again and Stan Wawrinka should be able to come through, albeit in three sets.
Wawrinka has been a little up and down since winning the Australian Open, but he is looking to bounce back from an early loss at the French Open and I do think he will be too good as long as he doesn't lose confidence early in the match.
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 games v Alison Riske: Sloane Stephens showed what she can do on a grass court with a comfortable win over Francesca Schiavone on Wednesday and I think she can back that up with victory over her compatriot Alison Riske in this Third Round match.
It won't be easy though as Riske has shown plenty of potential on the grass courts over the last few years, including reaching the Semi Final here in Birmingham after qualifying twelve months ago.
However, Stephens was a Quarter Finalist at Wimbledon last season and her power can give her a real edge on the quicker courts, especially one as low bouncing as the grass courts where the ball also tends to skid through the court.
Stephens' focus and concentration can let her down in some of the 'smaller' events on the Tour, but if she can stay tuned into this match, I would expect her to come through 64, 64.
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Lauren Davis: It was an impressive win for Ana Ivanovic in the Second Round when she crushed Mona Barthel in two sets and I would expect the Serb to back that up with another convincing win over Lauren Davis.
They met earlier this season in a match where Davis won just two games, and the young American has plenty of tennis played already this week with back to back three set wins. Her serve is vulnerable and I can see the aggression of Ivanovic making the difference in the match, especially if the latter is playing as well as she was against Barthel.
There is still some inconsistencies about Ivanovic which is frustrating when backing her to win matches with spreads as big as this, but I also think she is playing some of her better tennis for a couple of years during 2014.
I would hope Ivanovic serves well if she is going to win the match, but I also think she will have a few chances to break Lauren Davis and come through 63, 63.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.18 Unibet (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-9, - 8.28 Units (28 Units Staked, - 29.57% Yield)
Tuesday, 10 June 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (June 10th)
It was a tough opening day of a new week thanks to Jeremy Chardy blowing a big lead in the second set tie-break before losing the match on another breaker. The first pick of Jurgen Melzer to cover the handicap was just a purely terrible call and the last pick of the day was curtailed thanks to the rain and will be held over until Tuesday.
There is a lot of tennis scheduled for Tuesday, but there are a lot of tough matches to pick or players that look remarkably short in the market so I will only make a few plays and look to turn this week back into a positive spin.
The outright picks for the week can be read here.
Dmitry Tursunov - 2.5 games v Igor Sijsling: Earlier on his career, Dmitry Tursunov had a lot of success on the grass courts, but he has lost his last five matches on the surface although it has only been a couple of years since he won a title on the grass too.
Tursunov has a big serve and heavy groundstrokes that should take hold on the grass, but he has to be careful when dealing with Igor Sijsling who also has a decent first serve and is very capable of putting his best tennis together on grass.
He showed that by reaching the Semi Final of a Challenger event in Nottingham last week and he also managed to earn his way through to the Third Round at Queens Club twelve months ago.
The Dutchman will cause problems for Tursunov considering the latter hasn't won a match on grass for a while, but I think this is a match Tursunov can win. He has been playing well this season to back up his comeback year in 2013 and I believe the Russian can take a tie-break before breaking Sijsling's spirit to compete any further.
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v James Ward: I have picked Grigor Dimitrov to have a big week in the outright picks I have made at the beginning of the tournament which can be read above and I expect the Bulgarian to be too good for the British Number 2 James Ward.
I respect Ward for raising his game during this portion of the season and for reaching the French Open main draw last month after going through the difficult qualifying stage. Ward has a decent first serve and his backhand is solid, but the forehand can break down and he may be pushed to breaking point by Dimitrov.
Being the first match on grass can make life difficult for the seeded players in these tournaments so soon after the clay courts, but Dimitrov would have been adjusting since his First Round surprise loss at Roland Garros.
The style of play that Dimitrov has adopted should be very good for the grass courts and I do think he is going to have a big week which will begin with a 63, 64 win in this Second Round match on Tuesday afternoon.
Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Kurumi Nara: I won't lie and say I have seen a lot of Johanna Konta, but the times I have seen her play, I have seen the potential of someone who should be a feature of the top 100 and perhaps even as high as the top 50.
Konta has heavy groundstrokes and she has dominated the head to head with Kurumi Nara including beating her here in Birmingham at the same stage twelve months ago.
The Brit also reached the Semi Final in Nottingham last week in a tournament which was a level lower than the main WTA Tour, but that will have given Konta a little more confidence that she can perform here this week.
Kurumi Nara is an ever improving player on the Tour and I imagine she will make this closer than last year, but I am not sure she will have the same comfort on the grass courts as her opponent and I think Konta comes through 64, 64.
Heather Watson - 2.5 games v Aleksandra Wozniak: 2013 was not a great season for Heather Watson who had a few injury issues during the course of the season, but she is looking like getting back to her best this year.
Watson is once again the British Number 1 following her run to the Second Round at Roland Garros, and she should be much more comfortable returning to the grass courts.
She has also been given a kind draw against the game Aleksandra Wozniack, although the Canadian has not had a lot of success on the grass courts. She has won a couple of qualifiers here which should have boosted confidence, but Watson will be able to extract errors from her game and I expect that will lead to her place in the Second Round.
Her defence can be troublesome to someone as erratic as Wozniak and Watson should be too strong in a 63, 75 win.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units) Rain Delay with Lopez leading 63
Dmitry Tursunov - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.06 Unibet (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Heather Watson - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
There is a lot of tennis scheduled for Tuesday, but there are a lot of tough matches to pick or players that look remarkably short in the market so I will only make a few plays and look to turn this week back into a positive spin.
The outright picks for the week can be read here.
Dmitry Tursunov - 2.5 games v Igor Sijsling: Earlier on his career, Dmitry Tursunov had a lot of success on the grass courts, but he has lost his last five matches on the surface although it has only been a couple of years since he won a title on the grass too.
Tursunov has a big serve and heavy groundstrokes that should take hold on the grass, but he has to be careful when dealing with Igor Sijsling who also has a decent first serve and is very capable of putting his best tennis together on grass.
He showed that by reaching the Semi Final of a Challenger event in Nottingham last week and he also managed to earn his way through to the Third Round at Queens Club twelve months ago.
The Dutchman will cause problems for Tursunov considering the latter hasn't won a match on grass for a while, but I think this is a match Tursunov can win. He has been playing well this season to back up his comeback year in 2013 and I believe the Russian can take a tie-break before breaking Sijsling's spirit to compete any further.
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v James Ward: I have picked Grigor Dimitrov to have a big week in the outright picks I have made at the beginning of the tournament which can be read above and I expect the Bulgarian to be too good for the British Number 2 James Ward.
I respect Ward for raising his game during this portion of the season and for reaching the French Open main draw last month after going through the difficult qualifying stage. Ward has a decent first serve and his backhand is solid, but the forehand can break down and he may be pushed to breaking point by Dimitrov.
Being the first match on grass can make life difficult for the seeded players in these tournaments so soon after the clay courts, but Dimitrov would have been adjusting since his First Round surprise loss at Roland Garros.
The style of play that Dimitrov has adopted should be very good for the grass courts and I do think he is going to have a big week which will begin with a 63, 64 win in this Second Round match on Tuesday afternoon.
Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Kurumi Nara: I won't lie and say I have seen a lot of Johanna Konta, but the times I have seen her play, I have seen the potential of someone who should be a feature of the top 100 and perhaps even as high as the top 50.
Konta has heavy groundstrokes and she has dominated the head to head with Kurumi Nara including beating her here in Birmingham at the same stage twelve months ago.
The Brit also reached the Semi Final in Nottingham last week in a tournament which was a level lower than the main WTA Tour, but that will have given Konta a little more confidence that she can perform here this week.
Kurumi Nara is an ever improving player on the Tour and I imagine she will make this closer than last year, but I am not sure she will have the same comfort on the grass courts as her opponent and I think Konta comes through 64, 64.
Heather Watson - 2.5 games v Aleksandra Wozniak: 2013 was not a great season for Heather Watson who had a few injury issues during the course of the season, but she is looking like getting back to her best this year.
Watson is once again the British Number 1 following her run to the Second Round at Roland Garros, and she should be much more comfortable returning to the grass courts.
She has also been given a kind draw against the game Aleksandra Wozniack, although the Canadian has not had a lot of success on the grass courts. She has won a couple of qualifiers here which should have boosted confidence, but Watson will be able to extract errors from her game and I expect that will lead to her place in the Second Round.
Her defence can be troublesome to someone as erratic as Wozniak and Watson should be too strong in a 63, 75 win.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units) Rain Delay with Lopez leading 63
Dmitry Tursunov - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.06 Unibet (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Heather Watson - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Monday, 9 June 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (June 9th)
So the French Open is in the books and the first grass court tournaments of the season are just about to get underway- you can catch my outright picks from this week's tennis here.
Unlike most Monday's, this week we have plenty of tennis taking place with the unusually large draw that takes place at Queens in London considering that is still an ATP 250 event until next season. Halle has a few matches to get their tournament underway too, as does the WTA event in Birmingham, but the layers seem to be sleeping on a number of their markets as these tournaments are beginning so soon after the French Open.
With that in mind, I may have to add some picks from Queens on Monday morning, if the opportunity arises, once the full markets are available for the matches that are being played. The first matches are scheduled for 12:30pm local time, so there should be plenty of time to get involved if there are any more picks to add to the one I have already made.
Jeremy Chardy v Sam Querrey: Sam Querrey has won two of the three matches that these two have had against one another and he is a former Champion at the Queens Club in London, but I can't avoid thinking that he shouldn't be the favourite to beat Jeremy Chardy in this First Round match.
Querrey lost three of the four matches he played on grass last season and his performances over the last twelve months won't inspire confidence. The big serve makes Querrey dangerous, but the confidence has been shot and you can't have faith that he would win enough of the extended rallies to come through this match.
He is also up against a Jeremy Chardy that is on course in putting together the best season of his career and he has the game that transfers very well onto the grass courts. Chardy has a decent first serve and is comfortable at the net and showed his ability on grass by reaching the Quarter Final in Hertogenbosch and the Third Round at Wimbledon.
Confidence can make all the difference in close tennis matches and that is certainly behind Chardy who might have enough consistency off the ground to come through. There has also been enough success on the grass courts last season to extend that belief and Chardy may just come through in three sets to move into the Second Round.
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 games v Daniel Evans: Last season saw Daniel Evans really come to the attention for casual fans of British tennis with his run to the Third Round of the US Open following on from a couple of big wins here at Queens earlier in the season.
The First Round this season does give Evans a chance to move through the draw, because Jurgen Melzer lacks the consistency of his former days. However, Melzer should also be comfortable on the grass courts as someone who has had success on the surface in the past including reaching the Fourth Round last season at Wimbledon.
Melzer has a strong serve and finds himself very comfortable when he gets to the net and those attributes gives him a good chance to win matches on the grass courts, although he can be caught cold in his first appearances on the surface.
If the Austrian serves well, he should build confidence in this match and find chances on the Evans serve, although concentration might be an issue in dropping a silly set. I still think Melzer should be too good and back him to come through with a 63, 46, 64 win.
Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: There are a few players that will be appreciating the surface change from clay to grass and one of those is Feliciano Lopez who won a title at this time of the year twelve months ago. His big lefty serve and volleying skills makes Lopez a dangerous opponent on the grass courts and he has enjoyed plenty of success here at Queens, including a win over Rafael Nadal.
The match up with Dusan Lajovic looks a good one in the First Round, even if the Serbian is coming off his best Tour result by reaching the Fourth Round at the French Open.
Lajovic hasn't won a grass court match since turning professional with four straight losses to his name, while his serve might be vulnerable because it isn't one that will win a lot of free points during the match.
He will have to deal with the slice that Lopez loves to play with the backhand, one that will keep especially low on the grass courts, whilst also trying to prevent the Spaniard attacking the net.
All in all, it is a tough draw for the young player and I think Lopez rolls through with a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy @ 2.00 Stan James (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Unibet (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Unlike most Monday's, this week we have plenty of tennis taking place with the unusually large draw that takes place at Queens in London considering that is still an ATP 250 event until next season. Halle has a few matches to get their tournament underway too, as does the WTA event in Birmingham, but the layers seem to be sleeping on a number of their markets as these tournaments are beginning so soon after the French Open.
With that in mind, I may have to add some picks from Queens on Monday morning, if the opportunity arises, once the full markets are available for the matches that are being played. The first matches are scheduled for 12:30pm local time, so there should be plenty of time to get involved if there are any more picks to add to the one I have already made.
Jeremy Chardy v Sam Querrey: Sam Querrey has won two of the three matches that these two have had against one another and he is a former Champion at the Queens Club in London, but I can't avoid thinking that he shouldn't be the favourite to beat Jeremy Chardy in this First Round match.
Querrey lost three of the four matches he played on grass last season and his performances over the last twelve months won't inspire confidence. The big serve makes Querrey dangerous, but the confidence has been shot and you can't have faith that he would win enough of the extended rallies to come through this match.
He is also up against a Jeremy Chardy that is on course in putting together the best season of his career and he has the game that transfers very well onto the grass courts. Chardy has a decent first serve and is comfortable at the net and showed his ability on grass by reaching the Quarter Final in Hertogenbosch and the Third Round at Wimbledon.
Confidence can make all the difference in close tennis matches and that is certainly behind Chardy who might have enough consistency off the ground to come through. There has also been enough success on the grass courts last season to extend that belief and Chardy may just come through in three sets to move into the Second Round.
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 games v Daniel Evans: Last season saw Daniel Evans really come to the attention for casual fans of British tennis with his run to the Third Round of the US Open following on from a couple of big wins here at Queens earlier in the season.
The First Round this season does give Evans a chance to move through the draw, because Jurgen Melzer lacks the consistency of his former days. However, Melzer should also be comfortable on the grass courts as someone who has had success on the surface in the past including reaching the Fourth Round last season at Wimbledon.
Melzer has a strong serve and finds himself very comfortable when he gets to the net and those attributes gives him a good chance to win matches on the grass courts, although he can be caught cold in his first appearances on the surface.
If the Austrian serves well, he should build confidence in this match and find chances on the Evans serve, although concentration might be an issue in dropping a silly set. I still think Melzer should be too good and back him to come through with a 63, 46, 64 win.
Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: There are a few players that will be appreciating the surface change from clay to grass and one of those is Feliciano Lopez who won a title at this time of the year twelve months ago. His big lefty serve and volleying skills makes Lopez a dangerous opponent on the grass courts and he has enjoyed plenty of success here at Queens, including a win over Rafael Nadal.
The match up with Dusan Lajovic looks a good one in the First Round, even if the Serbian is coming off his best Tour result by reaching the Fourth Round at the French Open.
Lajovic hasn't won a grass court match since turning professional with four straight losses to his name, while his serve might be vulnerable because it isn't one that will win a lot of free points during the match.
He will have to deal with the slice that Lopez loves to play with the backhand, one that will keep especially low on the grass courts, whilst also trying to prevent the Spaniard attacking the net.
All in all, it is a tough draw for the young player and I think Lopez rolls through with a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy @ 2.00 Stan James (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Unibet (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Friday, 8 November 2013
World Tour Finals Day 5 Picks 2013 (November 8th)
The 2013 tennis season is drawing to a close and we now have two players already in the Semi Final after Novak Djokovic joined Rafael Nadal in the last four on Thursday evening. Djokovic has certainly looked the most impressive player so far and has won Group B, so will know exactly who he will face in the Semi Final on Sunday after the Friday matches are completed.
Group A is still up in the air compared with B as there are a number of different scenarios that could determine positions in the section. As far as I am aware, Stanislas Wawrinka cannot win the Group, but there is a situation where Tomas Berdych can win the Group and Rafael Nadal would finish second if all the players finish with the same number of wins on Friday evening.
The only thing we know for sure is that David Ferrer has been knocked out after a long season finally seemed to catch up with him physically and he can already begin thinking about where he wants to go on holiday to try and recharge for a long season. As an admirer of the way Ferrer has approached his career on the Tour, I don't want to write off the Spaniard too early, but I think he could be one of the players that will really have to battle to get back to this tournament in London in twelve months time.
Ferrer has definitely looked like he has slowed down during the latter part of 2013 (ever since the French Open Final I would say) and I am not sure if that was down to him carrying an injury or something more permanent for a player on the wrong side of 30 years of age. I would love to be wrong, but I can see Ferrer slipping down the Rankings in 2014 and I wouldn't be hugely surprised if he was to miss the World Tour Finals at the end of 2014.
The other talking point of the week so far was surrounding the ban that was given to Victor Troicki for missing a drugs test- it has been announced this week that the ban has been reduced to 12 months from the initial 18 months, but that hasn't gone down well with his friend Novak Djokovic. The World Number 2 was adamant that Troicki hadn't done anything wrong and that the blame likes with the Control Officer that had allegedly told Troicki he could skip the test as he was unwell and offer a sample the next day, which was passed.
Djokovic was very upset with his friend having to miss a year, especially after he was also barred from being in the stadium for a Davis Cup match in September, but Roger Federer wasn't as sympathetic to the situation when talking about it after his win over Richard Gasquet. For Federer it was a much more black and white situation, but it will be interesting how that goes down in the Djokovic camp.
There has been a feeling of tension between those two players in the past, while other players have said in a roundabout way that Federer doesn't help with matters concerning the players as much as someone of his high-profile should. Even Rafael Nadal hinted as such back at the Australian Open in 2012 and this Troicki discussion is the not the first time Federer has disagreed with the two leading players on the men's Tour.
The schedule, the blue clay in Madrid last year and even whether the World Tour Finals should be moved from London at the end of the current contract has seen Federer and Nadal/Djokovic offer differing views and I do wonder if there is more tension there than they openly admit. In saying that, Federer wins a lot of awards from his peers so who knows?!!
Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: David Ferrer may have the lead in the head to head between these players, but it was Stanislas Wawrinka that won their most recent match and it is also the Swiss man who has looked more comfortable this week.
I really respect David Ferrer, but he has looked physically spent in his two matches so far and I think it is going to be tough for him to find the level of motivation to turn things around and win this match as he is out of the tournament no matter what happens.
Wawrinka has been serving well for most of the week and he is clearly relishing being at the World Tour Finals for the first time. He pushed Rafael Nadal all the way in the second match he played this week, but the critical match was the win over Tomas Berdych and I think he would be expecting Nadal to beat the Czech player again.
Usually I would consider this a tough match for Wawrinka as Ferrer has the game to extract errors, but it is the former that has played better so far and I expect him to do enough behind his own serve to keep the pressure on the Spaniard. While Ferrer may want to put in a big effort, it is a big ask for him to be ready physically for this match and I think Wawrinka will come through 64, 64.
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Rafael Nadal will win this Group as long as he wins one set in the match, but he has gotten the better of Tomas Berdych ever since their infamous match in Madrid, including once here in London at the World Tour Finals.
I don't believe Nadal is a player that is going to put in a poor effort, or just concentrate on winning one set in this match, although Tomas Berdych is certainly capable of posing his own problems for Nadal to figure out.
However, the big man can be guilty of overplaying the situation when it comes to break points or big moments in matches and the 11 sets in a row he has lost to Nadal doesn't bode well for his chances of qualifying for the Semi Finals. Berdych could be in a position where he has already qualified though if David Ferrer can surprise Stanislas Wawrinka in the first match of the day, but I can't see that coming if I am honest and that means he will have to win this match.
With that pressure on him, I can see Berdych perhaps being overly aggressive and making life difficult for himself in this one and that should play into Nadal's hands. The World Number 1 will have to serve better than he did against Wawrinka on Wednesday, but he has gotten the better of Berdych by proving to be the tougher player mentally and I do think that makes a difference again.
If Berdych loses a close, hard fought first set, it may be too much for him to come back and I think Nadal can come through 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 4-4, + 4.46 Units (12 Units Staked, + 37.17% Yield)
Group A is still up in the air compared with B as there are a number of different scenarios that could determine positions in the section. As far as I am aware, Stanislas Wawrinka cannot win the Group, but there is a situation where Tomas Berdych can win the Group and Rafael Nadal would finish second if all the players finish with the same number of wins on Friday evening.
The only thing we know for sure is that David Ferrer has been knocked out after a long season finally seemed to catch up with him physically and he can already begin thinking about where he wants to go on holiday to try and recharge for a long season. As an admirer of the way Ferrer has approached his career on the Tour, I don't want to write off the Spaniard too early, but I think he could be one of the players that will really have to battle to get back to this tournament in London in twelve months time.
Ferrer has definitely looked like he has slowed down during the latter part of 2013 (ever since the French Open Final I would say) and I am not sure if that was down to him carrying an injury or something more permanent for a player on the wrong side of 30 years of age. I would love to be wrong, but I can see Ferrer slipping down the Rankings in 2014 and I wouldn't be hugely surprised if he was to miss the World Tour Finals at the end of 2014.
The other talking point of the week so far was surrounding the ban that was given to Victor Troicki for missing a drugs test- it has been announced this week that the ban has been reduced to 12 months from the initial 18 months, but that hasn't gone down well with his friend Novak Djokovic. The World Number 2 was adamant that Troicki hadn't done anything wrong and that the blame likes with the Control Officer that had allegedly told Troicki he could skip the test as he was unwell and offer a sample the next day, which was passed.
Djokovic was very upset with his friend having to miss a year, especially after he was also barred from being in the stadium for a Davis Cup match in September, but Roger Federer wasn't as sympathetic to the situation when talking about it after his win over Richard Gasquet. For Federer it was a much more black and white situation, but it will be interesting how that goes down in the Djokovic camp.
There has been a feeling of tension between those two players in the past, while other players have said in a roundabout way that Federer doesn't help with matters concerning the players as much as someone of his high-profile should. Even Rafael Nadal hinted as such back at the Australian Open in 2012 and this Troicki discussion is the not the first time Federer has disagreed with the two leading players on the men's Tour.
The schedule, the blue clay in Madrid last year and even whether the World Tour Finals should be moved from London at the end of the current contract has seen Federer and Nadal/Djokovic offer differing views and I do wonder if there is more tension there than they openly admit. In saying that, Federer wins a lot of awards from his peers so who knows?!!
Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: David Ferrer may have the lead in the head to head between these players, but it was Stanislas Wawrinka that won their most recent match and it is also the Swiss man who has looked more comfortable this week.
I really respect David Ferrer, but he has looked physically spent in his two matches so far and I think it is going to be tough for him to find the level of motivation to turn things around and win this match as he is out of the tournament no matter what happens.
Wawrinka has been serving well for most of the week and he is clearly relishing being at the World Tour Finals for the first time. He pushed Rafael Nadal all the way in the second match he played this week, but the critical match was the win over Tomas Berdych and I think he would be expecting Nadal to beat the Czech player again.
Usually I would consider this a tough match for Wawrinka as Ferrer has the game to extract errors, but it is the former that has played better so far and I expect him to do enough behind his own serve to keep the pressure on the Spaniard. While Ferrer may want to put in a big effort, it is a big ask for him to be ready physically for this match and I think Wawrinka will come through 64, 64.
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Rafael Nadal will win this Group as long as he wins one set in the match, but he has gotten the better of Tomas Berdych ever since their infamous match in Madrid, including once here in London at the World Tour Finals.
I don't believe Nadal is a player that is going to put in a poor effort, or just concentrate on winning one set in this match, although Tomas Berdych is certainly capable of posing his own problems for Nadal to figure out.
However, the big man can be guilty of overplaying the situation when it comes to break points or big moments in matches and the 11 sets in a row he has lost to Nadal doesn't bode well for his chances of qualifying for the Semi Finals. Berdych could be in a position where he has already qualified though if David Ferrer can surprise Stanislas Wawrinka in the first match of the day, but I can't see that coming if I am honest and that means he will have to win this match.
With that pressure on him, I can see Berdych perhaps being overly aggressive and making life difficult for himself in this one and that should play into Nadal's hands. The World Number 1 will have to serve better than he did against Wawrinka on Wednesday, but he has gotten the better of Berdych by proving to be the tougher player mentally and I do think that makes a difference again.
If Berdych loses a close, hard fought first set, it may be too much for him to come back and I think Nadal can come through 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 4-4, + 4.46 Units (12 Units Staked, + 37.17% Yield)
Thursday, 7 November 2013
World Tour Finals Day 4 Picks 2013 (November 7th)
It has been a wonderful season for Rafael Nadal and all of his fans and it was confirmed on Wednesday that he will finish the year as the World Number 1... That is a remarkable achievement for a player that had missed all the time on the Tour between Wimbledon 2012 and February 2013, but he has played at an extremely high level all season.
There will be a lot of points for him to defend after the Australian Open, but he should be able to keep clear of Novak Djokovic if Nadal can continue his dominance on the clay courts.
I have to credit Djokovic for pushing Nadal all the way considering he has won one Grand Slam and has lost a lot of big matches including the US Open Final. Since then, the Serb has been on a hot streak and there is a feeling that he has felt more comfortable in the role of having someone to chase in the Rankings rather than being closed down as he was by Nadal for much of the season.
The Australian Open has been Djokovic's domain over the last few years and he will be looking to end this week on a high by winning the tournament for the second year in a row to really set a marker down for next season . He will then go into Melbourne Park as the favourite and he might start eating into the Nadal points lead after that with confidence that he could perhaps take the French Open crown that he has set his heart on.
With Andy Murray to return to the mix and the likes of Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro hoping to have big years, men's tennis continues to look like it is in a golden period moving through to 2014.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Group B was clearly going to be a tough section for Roger Federer to negotiate with both Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro to face before the Semi Finals and he is already in a 'must win' situation.
Federer would have been vastly disappointed he didn't complete the win over Novak Djokovic in the first round of matches considering he won the second set and seemed to have all the momentum on his side. That is the second time in under a week that he was beaten by Djokovic despite looking like he was in a position to win the match.
The question now becomes how will he react to losing twice to the World Number 2 in quick succession, but he is playing an opponent that might not have the mental strength to take out Federer. Richard Gasquet has won 2 of his 12 matches against Federer, but he too is off a vastly disappointing defeat to Juan Martin Del Potro and it will be interesting to see his reaction to that defeat.
I have no doubt that this season is as vulnerable as Federer has looked on a tennis court since before he won his first Grand Slam title in 2003, but I still think he has enough in the tank to see off Gasquet. Federer has to find a better edge between his aggression and getting into rallies, but I believe he will have the more chances to break serve and I do think he can set up a clash with Juan Martin Del Potro that will determine who makes it through to the Semi Finals.
Federer has won the two previous matches against Gasquet on an indoor hard court without dropping a set and I think he can do something similar in this one. I look for him to come through 64, 64 and earn the cover.
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: Novak Djokovic looked a little lethargic in the second set of his win over Roger Federer, but he found reserves of strength to keep his winning run intact since his loss in the US Open Final.
He might need the same reserves to see off one of the best indoor hard court players on the Tour in Juan Martin Del Potro, but there were also times in his win over Richard Gasquet that the big man looked a little tired and slow.
You can't really tell from the body language as to how Del Potro is really feeling, while these two have had some real close matches in recent months. I really wouldn't be surprised if we see another three setter between two players that could very easily be contesting the Final on Monday and I am expecting to see a quality match as both have had at least a couple of days to rest between matches.
I just have a feeling that Djokovic is playing with a lot of belief that he won't lose at the moment and that might be the difference between the two players. Djokovic is the better returner of serve and I can see that being the main reason he is able to come through, but it would be no surprise to me if the first two sets are shared with Del Potro more than capable of stealing a break of serve and holding on to take a set.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 @ 4.33 William Hill (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals Update: 2-4, - 0.47 Units (9 Units Staked, - 5.22% Yield)
There will be a lot of points for him to defend after the Australian Open, but he should be able to keep clear of Novak Djokovic if Nadal can continue his dominance on the clay courts.
I have to credit Djokovic for pushing Nadal all the way considering he has won one Grand Slam and has lost a lot of big matches including the US Open Final. Since then, the Serb has been on a hot streak and there is a feeling that he has felt more comfortable in the role of having someone to chase in the Rankings rather than being closed down as he was by Nadal for much of the season.
The Australian Open has been Djokovic's domain over the last few years and he will be looking to end this week on a high by winning the tournament for the second year in a row to really set a marker down for next season . He will then go into Melbourne Park as the favourite and he might start eating into the Nadal points lead after that with confidence that he could perhaps take the French Open crown that he has set his heart on.
With Andy Murray to return to the mix and the likes of Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro hoping to have big years, men's tennis continues to look like it is in a golden period moving through to 2014.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Group B was clearly going to be a tough section for Roger Federer to negotiate with both Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro to face before the Semi Finals and he is already in a 'must win' situation.
Federer would have been vastly disappointed he didn't complete the win over Novak Djokovic in the first round of matches considering he won the second set and seemed to have all the momentum on his side. That is the second time in under a week that he was beaten by Djokovic despite looking like he was in a position to win the match.
The question now becomes how will he react to losing twice to the World Number 2 in quick succession, but he is playing an opponent that might not have the mental strength to take out Federer. Richard Gasquet has won 2 of his 12 matches against Federer, but he too is off a vastly disappointing defeat to Juan Martin Del Potro and it will be interesting to see his reaction to that defeat.
I have no doubt that this season is as vulnerable as Federer has looked on a tennis court since before he won his first Grand Slam title in 2003, but I still think he has enough in the tank to see off Gasquet. Federer has to find a better edge between his aggression and getting into rallies, but I believe he will have the more chances to break serve and I do think he can set up a clash with Juan Martin Del Potro that will determine who makes it through to the Semi Finals.
Federer has won the two previous matches against Gasquet on an indoor hard court without dropping a set and I think he can do something similar in this one. I look for him to come through 64, 64 and earn the cover.
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: Novak Djokovic looked a little lethargic in the second set of his win over Roger Federer, but he found reserves of strength to keep his winning run intact since his loss in the US Open Final.
He might need the same reserves to see off one of the best indoor hard court players on the Tour in Juan Martin Del Potro, but there were also times in his win over Richard Gasquet that the big man looked a little tired and slow.
You can't really tell from the body language as to how Del Potro is really feeling, while these two have had some real close matches in recent months. I really wouldn't be surprised if we see another three setter between two players that could very easily be contesting the Final on Monday and I am expecting to see a quality match as both have had at least a couple of days to rest between matches.
I just have a feeling that Djokovic is playing with a lot of belief that he won't lose at the moment and that might be the difference between the two players. Djokovic is the better returner of serve and I can see that being the main reason he is able to come through, but it would be no surprise to me if the first two sets are shared with Del Potro more than capable of stealing a break of serve and holding on to take a set.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 @ 4.33 William Hill (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals Update: 2-4, - 0.47 Units (9 Units Staked, - 5.22% Yield)
Wednesday, 6 November 2013
World Tour Finals Day 3 Picks 2013 (November 6th)
The first round robin matches are in the books at the World Tour Finals, but it is a quick turnaround for Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer who won't have a day of rest between matches as their opponents will.
It will be interesting to see if that gives Stanislas Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych a chance to overcome opponents that have dominated the head to head. I do think one of the players has a chance to win their match, but the other could go the same way as previous matches have ended.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 game v Stanislas Wawrinka: Stanislas Wawrinka's win over Tomas Berdych has given him a great platform to go through to the Semi Finals in his debut appearance at the World Tour Finals, but this could be a tough second match for him.
I wasn't sure if Rafael Nadal was feeling the strain of a long season after his performance in Paris last week, but he dominated his first match against David Ferrer, albeit against a tired opponent.
The match up is a good one for Nadal simply because his best shot is going into Wawrinka's exceptional one-handed backhand... No matter how well Wawrinka plays that shot, Nadal's spin and power certainly pushes the Swiss man to the back of the court and it is a very difficult place to consistently win points against someone like the Spaniard.
Nadal's backhand is also a little more solid than Wawrinka's forehand and this match will come down to whether Wawrinka can serve well enough to keep himself in control of the points on that side of the court.
There is a chance that Wawrinka could also decide to keep some energy in reserve if he loses the first set in this match and that could give Nadal the chance to run away with the second, especially as Nadal is not the kind of player that slackens off on any point.
Wawrinka may keep this close if he serves very well, but I think Nadal eventually comes through 64, 62.
Tomas Berdych v David Ferrer: David Ferrer has won 8 of the 11 matches against Tomas Berdych including 3 out of 4 matches on an indoor hard court. He beat Berdych from a set down in Paris last week, but Berdych can point to the fact that he has won their sole match at this tournament a couple of years ago.
Ferrer looked knackered mentally and physically in his loss to Rafael Nadal and made far too many mistakes in that match, but he will definitely make this closer if he can just tone those downs. Some of the misses were very close to the lines so it won't take a lot of adjustments for him to win those points.
He does match up well with Berdych as he can diffuse the big weapons that the Czech player brings to the court, but I don't know how he is feeling physically after a long season which has been back loaded somewhat as he has played the most matches of the players in London since the US Open.
Berdych himself will think he has to be a little more efficient on break point chances if he is going to win this match after failing to break Stanislas Wawrinka in the first match here. The match in Paris and the match in London a couple of years ago were both close and it will take a point here and there to separate the players in my opinion.
I just have this feeling that Ferrer doesn't have a lot left in the tank and if Berdych can at least split the first two sets, he might be able to outlast a player that has been known for his stamina reserves but who might have left too much on the court in Paris last week.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 1-3, - 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, - 13.4% Yield)
It will be interesting to see if that gives Stanislas Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych a chance to overcome opponents that have dominated the head to head. I do think one of the players has a chance to win their match, but the other could go the same way as previous matches have ended.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 game v Stanislas Wawrinka: Stanislas Wawrinka's win over Tomas Berdych has given him a great platform to go through to the Semi Finals in his debut appearance at the World Tour Finals, but this could be a tough second match for him.
I wasn't sure if Rafael Nadal was feeling the strain of a long season after his performance in Paris last week, but he dominated his first match against David Ferrer, albeit against a tired opponent.
The match up is a good one for Nadal simply because his best shot is going into Wawrinka's exceptional one-handed backhand... No matter how well Wawrinka plays that shot, Nadal's spin and power certainly pushes the Swiss man to the back of the court and it is a very difficult place to consistently win points against someone like the Spaniard.
Nadal's backhand is also a little more solid than Wawrinka's forehand and this match will come down to whether Wawrinka can serve well enough to keep himself in control of the points on that side of the court.
There is a chance that Wawrinka could also decide to keep some energy in reserve if he loses the first set in this match and that could give Nadal the chance to run away with the second, especially as Nadal is not the kind of player that slackens off on any point.
Wawrinka may keep this close if he serves very well, but I think Nadal eventually comes through 64, 62.
Tomas Berdych v David Ferrer: David Ferrer has won 8 of the 11 matches against Tomas Berdych including 3 out of 4 matches on an indoor hard court. He beat Berdych from a set down in Paris last week, but Berdych can point to the fact that he has won their sole match at this tournament a couple of years ago.
Ferrer looked knackered mentally and physically in his loss to Rafael Nadal and made far too many mistakes in that match, but he will definitely make this closer if he can just tone those downs. Some of the misses were very close to the lines so it won't take a lot of adjustments for him to win those points.
He does match up well with Berdych as he can diffuse the big weapons that the Czech player brings to the court, but I don't know how he is feeling physically after a long season which has been back loaded somewhat as he has played the most matches of the players in London since the US Open.
Berdych himself will think he has to be a little more efficient on break point chances if he is going to win this match after failing to break Stanislas Wawrinka in the first match here. The match in Paris and the match in London a couple of years ago were both close and it will take a point here and there to separate the players in my opinion.
I just have this feeling that Ferrer doesn't have a lot left in the tank and if Berdych can at least split the first two sets, he might be able to outlast a player that has been known for his stamina reserves but who might have left too much on the court in Paris last week.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 1-3, - 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, - 13.4% Yield)
Friday, 14 June 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (June 14th)
The rain has really affected the the two tournaments that are being played in England, but all of the tournaments are on schedule to conclude at the right time this Sunday. We have reached the Quarter Final stage in Birmingham, London and Halle, while the Semi Finals will be played at Nuremberg, the only main level tournament that is being played on the clay this week.
Yesterday, the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray had to do some double duty on the centre court at Queens and both have made their way through to the Quarter Finals- both of those players are very effective on the grass courts, while Juan Martin Del Potro is also feeling a lot more comfortable on this surface these days compared with earlier in his career.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: Philipp Kohlschreiber has enjoyed considerable success at his home grass court tournament in the past and he has the game that is perfectly suited to this surface.
The match up in the Quarter Final looks tailor made for Kohlschreiber as he takes on Mikhail Youzhny, a player that he has beaten in 7 of their previous 8 meetings, although this is the first time they have met on a grass court.
Youzhny is another player that is capable of playing on the grass, but his opponent is a little stronger in all aspects of the game and I can understand why the German has such a good record against him. Both of these players enjoyed very good times on the grass court last season, but I can see the stronger Kohlschreiber serve being the difference in a 64 64 win for the home favourite.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Denis Kudla: Denis Kudla has been one of the surprise packages this week and may have done enough to crack the top 100 after securing a couple of surprise wins to reach this Quarter Final.
However, that is where the run could come to an end as he faces one of the best grass court players in the Men's game in the form of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and I do think the Frenchman will have enough in his locker to win this one a little more comfortably than the layers think.
We know Tsonga has got a big game that is perfectly suited to this surface, while the suggestion is that Kudla was not really expected to have been as comfortable on the grass as he has been this week. Last week, Kudla won just three games as he was dismissed by Dudi Sela in Nottingham and I think it is asking a lot for the American to keep up with Tsonga as long as the latter isn't overly tired from his two matches played on Thursday.
It won't be easy, but I think Tsonga finds a way to win this Quarter Final 64 63.
Madison Keys v Magdalena Rybarikova: Madison Keys has shown some very good form this week and I do think the young American has a lot of potential and could easily be a seeded player by the time the US Open comes around.
Keys has come through a couple of tough matches this week and was then far too good for Mona Barthel and she has the serve that could earn her enough cheap points to make her a dangerous unseeded player at Wimbledon in a couple of weeks.
Magdalena Rybarikova has also been performing well this week, but I do think Keys has a lot more upside and I think she can find an easier way to hold serve to lead her to a win in this pick 'em match. It might go to three sets, but I think Keys will find a way to book her place in the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Madison Keys @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.50 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.86% Yield)
Yesterday, the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray had to do some double duty on the centre court at Queens and both have made their way through to the Quarter Finals- both of those players are very effective on the grass courts, while Juan Martin Del Potro is also feeling a lot more comfortable on this surface these days compared with earlier in his career.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: Philipp Kohlschreiber has enjoyed considerable success at his home grass court tournament in the past and he has the game that is perfectly suited to this surface.
The match up in the Quarter Final looks tailor made for Kohlschreiber as he takes on Mikhail Youzhny, a player that he has beaten in 7 of their previous 8 meetings, although this is the first time they have met on a grass court.
Youzhny is another player that is capable of playing on the grass, but his opponent is a little stronger in all aspects of the game and I can understand why the German has such a good record against him. Both of these players enjoyed very good times on the grass court last season, but I can see the stronger Kohlschreiber serve being the difference in a 64 64 win for the home favourite.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Denis Kudla: Denis Kudla has been one of the surprise packages this week and may have done enough to crack the top 100 after securing a couple of surprise wins to reach this Quarter Final.
However, that is where the run could come to an end as he faces one of the best grass court players in the Men's game in the form of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and I do think the Frenchman will have enough in his locker to win this one a little more comfortably than the layers think.
We know Tsonga has got a big game that is perfectly suited to this surface, while the suggestion is that Kudla was not really expected to have been as comfortable on the grass as he has been this week. Last week, Kudla won just three games as he was dismissed by Dudi Sela in Nottingham and I think it is asking a lot for the American to keep up with Tsonga as long as the latter isn't overly tired from his two matches played on Thursday.
It won't be easy, but I think Tsonga finds a way to win this Quarter Final 64 63.
Madison Keys v Magdalena Rybarikova: Madison Keys has shown some very good form this week and I do think the young American has a lot of potential and could easily be a seeded player by the time the US Open comes around.
Keys has come through a couple of tough matches this week and was then far too good for Mona Barthel and she has the serve that could earn her enough cheap points to make her a dangerous unseeded player at Wimbledon in a couple of weeks.
Magdalena Rybarikova has also been performing well this week, but I do think Keys has a lot more upside and I think she can find an easier way to hold serve to lead her to a win in this pick 'em match. It might go to three sets, but I think Keys will find a way to book her place in the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Madison Keys @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.50 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.86% Yield)
Wednesday, 12 June 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (June 12th)
It was an on-off day at Queens yesterday and the forecast today isn't reading much better, although the organisers have at least used some common sense and started proceedings on all of the courts an hour and a half earlier than usual.
Even with that in mind, they will need to be fortunate in not having too many early matches going the distance as the rain is due back this afternoon and the event will be desperate to get back on course for a Sunday completion. The rest of the week is picking up in terms of weather so they should be able to complete the tournament on time, but they may need a bit of help today to do so.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Kenny de Schepper: Kenny de Schepper has a monster serve, but his overall game isn't one that would trouble the best players on the Tour and while Kevin Anderson isn't right at the top of the Men's game, I do think he is capable of finding a break in each set to see him through.
The big serve of de Schepper will help him through a number of service games, but if Anderson can get that ball in play, he should have a real chance of grabbing enough chances to take control.
The South African has a big serve of his own that should see him through enough service games with relative ease that will lead to a 63 76 win for the seeded player.
Feliciano Lopez v Julien Benneteau: Feliciano Lopez has a 1-4 record against Julien Benneteau, but the one sole win came on the grass courts here at Queens in 2010 and I do believe that Lopez is the more comfortable on this surface of the two players.
This one is bound to be close as both players have been in decent form coming into the tournament, but Lopez has had a bit of extra time on the grass courts and that may be enough to see him through in what could be a tight three set battle.
I just think the extra serving ability that Lopez has and the confident ability to get to the net and shorten the points should work in his favour in this one and may be the difference between the two players.
Denis Istomin v Igor Sijsling: This is another match that has been set as a pick 'em contest and I do think Denis Istomin is perhaps being under-rated to come through the match against Igor Sijsling.
Istomin is a funny player to get a read on as he can be so inconsistent, but he had plenty of success on the grass courts last season and he has the game that is certainly suited to the surface. On the other hand, Igor Sijsling hasn't been at his best on the grass so far.
Both players came through their First Round matches with straight sets victories, but I do think Istomin can continue his run here. It is a match that should be decided by two tight sets in favour of the Uzbekistan player.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units) Advised Yesterday
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.35 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.00 Stan James (2 Units)
Denis Istomin @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.50 Units (8 Units Staked, - 6.25% Yield)
Even with that in mind, they will need to be fortunate in not having too many early matches going the distance as the rain is due back this afternoon and the event will be desperate to get back on course for a Sunday completion. The rest of the week is picking up in terms of weather so they should be able to complete the tournament on time, but they may need a bit of help today to do so.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Kenny de Schepper: Kenny de Schepper has a monster serve, but his overall game isn't one that would trouble the best players on the Tour and while Kevin Anderson isn't right at the top of the Men's game, I do think he is capable of finding a break in each set to see him through.
The big serve of de Schepper will help him through a number of service games, but if Anderson can get that ball in play, he should have a real chance of grabbing enough chances to take control.
The South African has a big serve of his own that should see him through enough service games with relative ease that will lead to a 63 76 win for the seeded player.
Feliciano Lopez v Julien Benneteau: Feliciano Lopez has a 1-4 record against Julien Benneteau, but the one sole win came on the grass courts here at Queens in 2010 and I do believe that Lopez is the more comfortable on this surface of the two players.
This one is bound to be close as both players have been in decent form coming into the tournament, but Lopez has had a bit of extra time on the grass courts and that may be enough to see him through in what could be a tight three set battle.
I just think the extra serving ability that Lopez has and the confident ability to get to the net and shorten the points should work in his favour in this one and may be the difference between the two players.
Denis Istomin v Igor Sijsling: This is another match that has been set as a pick 'em contest and I do think Denis Istomin is perhaps being under-rated to come through the match against Igor Sijsling.
Istomin is a funny player to get a read on as he can be so inconsistent, but he had plenty of success on the grass courts last season and he has the game that is certainly suited to the surface. On the other hand, Igor Sijsling hasn't been at his best on the grass so far.
Both players came through their First Round matches with straight sets victories, but I do think Istomin can continue his run here. It is a match that should be decided by two tight sets in favour of the Uzbekistan player.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units) Advised Yesterday
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.35 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.00 Stan James (2 Units)
Denis Istomin @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.50 Units (8 Units Staked, - 6.25% Yield)
Tuesday, 11 June 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (June 11th)
It was fun to see the grass courts being used again as I managed to catch some of the live tennis during my lunch break and also once I returned home in the evening. However, it is a real shame that the weather hasn't turned up so far after a cold Monday in London opened the Queens tournament.
The rain, at least, stayed away as the matches scheduled for the day all managed to get on court, although the forecast for the next few days, both in London and Halle doesn't bode well for those tournaments. It's the same situation for the WTA tournament being run in Birmingham, but so far so good for the schedules.
I do always laugh at how these tournaments in Britain are reported- anyone who knows tennis will be well aware of the fact that British Men's tennis has been in the doldrums for some time barring the odd Andy Murray or Tim Henman. So this is the time of the season when you will see more British players receive Wild Cards into events.
With that in mind, any kind of performance will be blown out of proportion and usually followed by 'Brit Watch' at Wimbledon- yesterday, it was reported that Dan Evans 'secures shock win' in his First Round win over Guido Pella.
In terms of Rankings, it was a surprise of course- but he was actually favoured by all of the layers and he was playing an opponent that had never played on a grass court before and clearly has been almost exclusively successful on the clay courts. Therefore, I think to describe his win as a 'shock' is poor reporting to be honest as most people expected he will be too good for Pella and that happened to be the case.
Personally I think a little bit of research would have told the author of that BBC article that it was a good win for Evans, but it was far from a 'shock' and should be written for the casual reader for what it is. It was a good win for someone ranked as low as Evans is, but there was no shock and he did what was expected of him.
On the other hand, James Ward was the big underdog in his match with Ivan Dodig and it was a match he should have won. He lost in three tough tie-break sets, but had chances to serve out the second and third sets and will be disappointed that he didn't complete what would have been a real surprise result.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Lleyton Hewitt: Both of these players came through some struggles to book their place in the Second Round, but I think Grigor Dimitrov definitely has the more upside of the two and that is why I believe he will beat the former Wimbledon Champion.
There are just too many unforced errors coming from the racquet of Lleyton Hewitt these days, while his first serve percentage has to improve markedly to give him a real chance in this match.
On the other hand, Dimitrov had to break Dudi Sela's serve to stay in the match yesterday, but he reached the Semi Final here last season and I think Hewitt's game is one that he can get the better of. I wouldn't be totally surprised if this ended up going into a third set decider or if Dimitrov wins two tight sets, but I do expect the Bulgarian to cover this spread.
Nicolas Mahut - 2.5 games v Rhyne Williams: It's not everyday that I would take someone to cover the games when they are ranked as low as Nicolas Mahut is, but the grass is the one surface that certainly favours his game more than other surfaces these days.
Mahut is a former Finalist at Queens and his serve-volley game will definitely give Rhyne Williams a number of problems, especially considering this is the American's second game on grass in his short career.
Williams was beaten in the First Round of a Challenger tournament on the grass in Nottingham last week, but I expect Mahut's veteran savvy to be too much for him here too despite having the surface under his feet. I think the Frenchman will find a way to cause enough problems on the Williams serve by attacking the net and forcing the younger man to find a way to consistently pass him.
That should lead to a 64, 76 win for Mahut in this one and a chance to play Andy Murray on Centre Court for the second year in succession.
Benoit Paire - 3.5 games v Denis Kudla: Benoit Paire is certainly beginning to make his mark on the ATP Tour and I think he can back up his win from the First Round by taking out the young American Denis Kudla in the Second Round.
Paire has been pegged as someone who can definitely reach the top 20 of the World Rankings, while L'Equipe's recent prediction of the top ten in 2018 included Paire in the list. He is only 5 wins short of reaching the same number of wins as he had in the whole of last season, and already proved he can be comfortable on the grass courts by reaching the Semi Final of an event in Holland last season.
This should be an opportunity for Paire to move through to the Third Round here despite the impressive win that Kudla had yesterday. However, that win came against a predominantly clay court player and this is a test at least a couple of levels higher for Kudla who was comfortably beaten in the First Round in a Nottingham Challenger last week.
I think the Frenchman should be able to find a way to grab a break advantage in each set in this one and I am expecting Paire to move through 75 63.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.16 Units (4 Units Staked)
The rain, at least, stayed away as the matches scheduled for the day all managed to get on court, although the forecast for the next few days, both in London and Halle doesn't bode well for those tournaments. It's the same situation for the WTA tournament being run in Birmingham, but so far so good for the schedules.
I do always laugh at how these tournaments in Britain are reported- anyone who knows tennis will be well aware of the fact that British Men's tennis has been in the doldrums for some time barring the odd Andy Murray or Tim Henman. So this is the time of the season when you will see more British players receive Wild Cards into events.
With that in mind, any kind of performance will be blown out of proportion and usually followed by 'Brit Watch' at Wimbledon- yesterday, it was reported that Dan Evans 'secures shock win' in his First Round win over Guido Pella.
In terms of Rankings, it was a surprise of course- but he was actually favoured by all of the layers and he was playing an opponent that had never played on a grass court before and clearly has been almost exclusively successful on the clay courts. Therefore, I think to describe his win as a 'shock' is poor reporting to be honest as most people expected he will be too good for Pella and that happened to be the case.
Personally I think a little bit of research would have told the author of that BBC article that it was a good win for Evans, but it was far from a 'shock' and should be written for the casual reader for what it is. It was a good win for someone ranked as low as Evans is, but there was no shock and he did what was expected of him.
On the other hand, James Ward was the big underdog in his match with Ivan Dodig and it was a match he should have won. He lost in three tough tie-break sets, but had chances to serve out the second and third sets and will be disappointed that he didn't complete what would have been a real surprise result.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Lleyton Hewitt: Both of these players came through some struggles to book their place in the Second Round, but I think Grigor Dimitrov definitely has the more upside of the two and that is why I believe he will beat the former Wimbledon Champion.
There are just too many unforced errors coming from the racquet of Lleyton Hewitt these days, while his first serve percentage has to improve markedly to give him a real chance in this match.
On the other hand, Dimitrov had to break Dudi Sela's serve to stay in the match yesterday, but he reached the Semi Final here last season and I think Hewitt's game is one that he can get the better of. I wouldn't be totally surprised if this ended up going into a third set decider or if Dimitrov wins two tight sets, but I do expect the Bulgarian to cover this spread.
Nicolas Mahut - 2.5 games v Rhyne Williams: It's not everyday that I would take someone to cover the games when they are ranked as low as Nicolas Mahut is, but the grass is the one surface that certainly favours his game more than other surfaces these days.
Mahut is a former Finalist at Queens and his serve-volley game will definitely give Rhyne Williams a number of problems, especially considering this is the American's second game on grass in his short career.
Williams was beaten in the First Round of a Challenger tournament on the grass in Nottingham last week, but I expect Mahut's veteran savvy to be too much for him here too despite having the surface under his feet. I think the Frenchman will find a way to cause enough problems on the Williams serve by attacking the net and forcing the younger man to find a way to consistently pass him.
That should lead to a 64, 76 win for Mahut in this one and a chance to play Andy Murray on Centre Court for the second year in succession.
Benoit Paire - 3.5 games v Denis Kudla: Benoit Paire is certainly beginning to make his mark on the ATP Tour and I think he can back up his win from the First Round by taking out the young American Denis Kudla in the Second Round.
Paire has been pegged as someone who can definitely reach the top 20 of the World Rankings, while L'Equipe's recent prediction of the top ten in 2018 included Paire in the list. He is only 5 wins short of reaching the same number of wins as he had in the whole of last season, and already proved he can be comfortable on the grass courts by reaching the Semi Final of an event in Holland last season.
This should be an opportunity for Paire to move through to the Third Round here despite the impressive win that Kudla had yesterday. However, that win came against a predominantly clay court player and this is a test at least a couple of levels higher for Kudla who was comfortably beaten in the First Round in a Nottingham Challenger last week.
I think the Frenchman should be able to find a way to grab a break advantage in each set in this one and I am expecting Paire to move through 75 63.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.16 Units (4 Units Staked)
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