Euro 2020 Group Picks and Match Day 1 Picks 2021 (June 11-15)

Not even two weeks have passed since the official end of the 2020/21 club season when the Champions League Final was played, but here we are, the start of a summer tournament that was postponed for one year.

Things would have felt much differently going into the Euro 2020 tournament in its original position, but Covid-19 has forced a re-think and also means I am likely one of thousands of supporters who will now not be attending any games.

Tickets for the Netherlands opening game in Amsterdam and for three Group games in Budapest (which included Portugal vs France) had to be given back as well as the Last 16 tie and the first Semi Final where both games were set to be played at Wembley Stadium. Unfortunately the lack of a clear plan from the government about where we would stand by the start of the Euro 2020 tournament meant I was not really able to make the plans I would have liked and instead it will be a summer watching on television.

Which in the grand scheme of things is not the worst thing in the world.

Hopefully it will be warm weather and positive football played by teams which will ultimately produce a good summer, even while the majority of us still continue to feel the affects of a situation that has shaken us unexpectedly.

In this post you will be able to read how I feel the Groups will be settled and you will also be able to read my thoughts on the Match Day 1 Group games which are played from Friday through to the following Tuesday.

I will then have separate threads for the remaining two Match Days of the Groups and onto the Last 16, Quarter Final, Semi Final and finally err The Final.

Group A- any nation that has the advantage of playing three Group games at home are going to be a favourite to progress, but the form of Italy going into this tournament means they are something of a dark horse to go all the way to the title in one month from Friday.

You can never write off the Italians with any kind of confidence, but they are also a hard team to read considering they didn't even make the last World Cup and a transition has taken place overseen by Roberto Mancini. This is a far more attack minded Italian team than we are used to, but one with a solid base that is likely going to make them tough to beat.

They should have too much for Turkey, Switzerland and Wales to top the Group, but the foremost of those nations looks like another that could take the dark horse tag deep into the tournament. You just don't know what is always coming from a passionate team like Turkey who are capable of beating France and Holland one day, but then failing to do the same against Latvia on another.

The opening game between Switzerland and Wales may be the key to determining the fate of either of those nations, but it won't be easy for them to even earn a best third place spot if they are not able to take the full points from that fixture. Wales in particular could benefit from facing Italy last, especially if the hosts have already Qualified for the Last 16 and I would not write them off from earning another Knock Out place having reached the Semi Final in France five years ago.

Group B- before the injury to Kevin De Bruyne which could rule him out of at least one and possibly two of the Group games, I would have had Belgium down as a strong favourite to win this Group despite playing two hosts in the section.

They did the double over Russia in the Euro 2020 Qualifiers and managed the same against Denmark in the Nations League last Autumn, while Belgium's 'golden generation' look to have one or two more strong tournaments in them.

However, the injury might mean Belgium make a slightly slower start to the tournament, although I am not sure finishing 2nd wouldn't be anything but a bonus for them as long as France win Group F as expected.

Denmark are the team most likely to take advantage of any Belgian slip and host three Group games which should provide them at least six points. An opener against outsiders Finland give Denmark the platform to set up the tournament and I do think them and Belgium dominate proceedings.

Three years ago Russia surprised many with their performances at the World Cup they hosted, but the team has not really kicked on from there although they will feel they can earn at least one of the best third place finishes. Beating Finland will be key, but Russia may also feel a weakened Belgium could just be vulnerable in the opener and putting those together suggests this is a Group that can offer a pathway for three teams to make the Last 16.

Group C- if this tournament had been played in the last summer as scheduled, the Netherlands looked a much stronger prospect than the team taking on the event this summer. A first major tournament since the 2014 World Cup as well as three Group games in Amsterdam should see Holland through to the Last 16, but Frank de Boer does not inspire as manager of the national team.

Losing Virgil Van Dijk is a massive blow too and Holland look to be too reliant on mercurial Memphis Depay to go much further than the Quarter Final. However, the draw has been kind to them if they win the Group and that will be key for Holland.

Ukraine are perhaps better than most people realise having won a Qualifying Group containing Portugal and Serbia, and they could cause problems for the Netherlands in the opener.

Either way they should follow Holland through and both Austria and North Macedonia look to be making up the numbers. Those two face each other on Match Day 1 and the winner will give themselves and outside chance of earning a spot in the Last 16, although not many would tip them to go much further than that.

Group D- it's coming home and feelings of Euro 1996 will be rampant in England after Dublin's withdrawal as a host city has meant topping this Group will give England a chance of playing six of seven games at Wembley Stadium to win a first major prize since 1966.

However, topping the Group will likely mean facing either France/Portugal or Germany in the Second Round and then Spain in the Quarter Final suggesting it is perhaps better for England to give up home advantage for an easier path towards the Final.

No one will be thinking that way in the camp and England look like they are in a good section alongside Croatia, Czech Republic and Scotland. They have beaten Croatia here since the World Cup Semi Final defeat in the Nations League, while England have crushed the Czech Republic at Wembley Stadium in the Euro 2020 Qualifiers.

The game in between those two will be the one the fans are waiting for as England take on Scotland to further the comparisons with Euro 96, but managers of both nations will know they need to make sure they earn points from the other games to have a chance to progress.

Croatia are not the team they were and look to be in transition, but they are still plenty good enough to follow England into the Last 16, while the Scotland and Czech Republic opener is a big one for both teams who will be looking for a third place spot and a back route into the Last 16. Both of those nations have nothing to lose, but a draw in the opener would be a big blow for both and I think it would be difficult to win one of the other games to earn a path into the next Round.

It has been 23 years since Scotland last played in a major international tournament, and they have never progressed past the Group Stage, but I think they can make a bit of history here. Valiant defeats have been the past, but Steve Clarke can help Scotland secure the four points they will likely need to earn their place in the Last 16.

Group E- hosting games in Sevilla instead of Bilbao should give Spain an even stronger home advantage than they would have enjoyed a year ago, but there is pressure on the squad and manager after Luis Enrique failed to pick a single player from Real Madrid.

A Covid-19 outbreak before the tournament has not helped, but Spain are in a good section and there is still enough about them to top a Group containing Sweden, Poland and Slovakia.

The last of those look like one of the weaker teams in the Euro 2020 Finals and even earning a point might be a surprise.

Both Sweden and Poland will likely look at the other as the team to beat to progress, but that fixture is on Match Day 3 and assuming both have beaten Slovakia and lost to Spain, a 'convenient' share of the points can't be ruled out to take both through to the next Round.

The only way that could shake up is if there is a clear path for the team finishing 2nd rather than 3rd to earn a solid Knock Out Round draw, but that will become clearer before that fixture is played.

Group F- the 'Group of Death' contains a Germany team who will host three games in Munich and both the World and European Champions, but the Play Off win for Hungary looks to have created a clear 'weak' team in the four team section.

Assuming the top three all beat Hungary, a draw here and there should be enough for all to progress, although there looks to be a big benefit of winning the Group rather than finishing 2nd or 3rd.

Finishing 2nd would likely mean facing England at Wembley Stadium in the Second Round, while 3rd place could be paired with the winner of Group B (Belgium most likely) and that should keep all the fixtures competitive.

Germany look the weakest of the top three nations, but playing all three games at home should keep them on track to avoid a repeat of the Group Stage exit at the last World Cup. It may come down to the final game with Hungary, but that would be an immense amount of pressure on a squad and a manager that saw North Macedonia win a World Cup Qualifier in Germany in March.

Both France and Portugal look to have superior teams than the ones that competed in the Euro 2016 Final and I would not be that surprised if they met again on July 11th. Pragmatic managers are not that afraid of taking the handbrake of their teams and the talented attacking players they have and I think both teams are capable of winning this title.

Hungary will be pleased to get here, but have lost their best player to injury and it would be a huge boost for them to avoid finishing pointless in this section despite hosting both Portugal and France.

Friday 11th June

Italy vs Turkey Pick: The opening game of Euro 2020 will take place in 2021 and in Rome where Italy will host Turkey with plenty of expectations heaped on both nations from the fans at home.

Italy will have some of those inside the Stadium and I do think that is a huge boost for players that have been involved in long seasons playing soulless matches behind closed doors.

Their strong Qualifying performances as well as those in the Nations League means Italy have been seen as a dark horse, although I do think the top three teams (Portugal, France and Belgium) would eventually have too much for them.

Roberto Mancini has put together a good side with a nice balance between experience and youth and Italy have won plenty of matches, although they need a bit more consistency from their players in the final third to really win this tournament.

Turkey are another who impressed in Qualifying having taken four points from France in their Group and they thumped the Netherlands in a World Cup Qualifier in March. Both of the wins came at home though and I do wonder if there will be a touch of vulnerability about them on their travels.

They have players feeling good about themselves and some stand out defensive names, but even then Turkey are guilty of conceding plenty of goals over the last year and I do feel differently about them than I would have done a year ago. Turkey have conceded at least twice in 5 of their last 6 competitive fixtures, and they were beaten in Iceland in the Qualifying Group despite finishing above the nation that lit up the last European Championships.

I think the opener could actually be a really good game of football with two teams that do like to get forward and cause problems for the other. While Italy are something of an unknown and impressed from a distance, I do think there is plenty about them and they can open this tournament with a relatively high-scoring win.

Saturday 12th June

Wales vs Switzerland Pick: The travelling between Baku and Rome is not ideal preparation for the other three teams in Group A, but Switzerland have drawn the short straw of having the middle of the three Group games in Rome with the other two either side played in Azerbaijan.

That puts some pressure on Switzerland to make a strong start to the Group, but this is a team that has struggled for consistency and scoring enough goals.

It certainly feels like posing a major problem for the Swiss in this Group where they may find goals hard to come by anyway and I think they are vulnerable to upsets against Wales and Turkey.

Wales are perhaps not as good as the team that reached the Euro 2016 Semi Final as the likes of Joe Allen, Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey have been struggling for form and fitness, but they are a solid team as they showed when Qualifying for the tournament. Finishing behind Croatia, but ahead of Hungary and Slovakia has to be respected considering those two nations were able to come through the Play Offs and also reach the Finals.

A win over the Czech Republic in a World Cup Qualifier in March shows this is a team that is still well balanced defensively, but capable of finding winning goals in tight matches. That is going to be the game plan more often than not for Robert Page who continues to lead the national team in place of Ryan Giggs who is surely going to be facing the sack sooner than later after off the field indiscretions.

Even then, Wales have not allowed themselves to be distracted and I do think this team is capable of earning the four points they likely need to take their place in the Last 16 of the Euro Finals for the second tournament in succession. A win here would be very important towards that mark, but either way the Swiss look like a pretty short favourite despite the six wins in a row they have going into the tournament.

If the Welsh continue to defend as efficiently as they have been under Robert Page, I think Bale, Daniel James or A.N. Other can step up and find a big goal for them in this opening fixture. Winning might not be easy, but Wales can certainly avoid a defeat.

Denmark vs Finland Pick: It will be very difficult to match the Denmark team that won the Euro 1992 tournament as a late replacement for Yugoslavia, but this current crop of Danes can certainly make a big impact at this Euro Finals.

Playing three home Group games is a huge bonus for Denmark, but it is important they get off to a good start when facing what looks like the weakest of the four teams. Strong showings in the World Cup Qualifiers in March has only increased the expectation around this Denmark team and they do look like having the balance as well as the fan support to be very tough to beat over the next two weeks.

Those World Cup Qualifiers were impressive, but it was also Denmark's strong performances in the Nations League that would have raised some eyebrows, especially the four points taken from England. They are a team that has a very solid base, but there are some quality attacking options available too and a new positive approach has been rewarded with plenty of goals.

You can't draw a line through a debutant like Finland after seeing the successes that Iceland had five years ago, but it does feel that merely making the Euro Finals is a huge achievement for this nation. They have lost 3 in a row in friendly settings and have not won any of their last 6 overall, while Finland finished behind Wales in their Nations League Group having lost twice to them in that section.

Qualifying for the Euro 2020 Finals behind Italy was a strong showing from Finland, but this is a legitimate away game in the Group. They were beaten at Italy, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Greece and conceded at least twice in each of those games which is a big worry for Finland as they take on a quality looking Denmark team that will attack and look to score goals.

Opening games may have the feeling of being tight and competitive as teams don't want to give too much away, but Denmark can likely score twice in a win here as they get their campaign off to a positive start before hosting one of the favourites on Match Day 2.

Belgium vs Russia Pick: The only matches Russia failed to win when Qualifying for Euro 2020 both came against Belgium and the two losses to one of the favourites to win the tournament might have some fans fearing the worst in the opener.

Those matches were played in 2019 and it was Eden Hazard who was the scourge of the Russians with four goals against them. That included two in Russia in a 1-4 win for Belgium, but things have changed quite drastically for Hazard since then having moved to Real Madrid and his fitness concerns may mean Russia can ease some of their concerns.

Add in the injury that Kevin De Bruyne picked up in the Champions League Final which makes him a doubt for the opening game at Euro 2020 and Belgium may have one or two problems breaking down the hosts. There is still some real quality that Roberto Martinez can call upon and Belgium have shown off their depth in the World Cup Qualifiers in March, but they likely do need those two midfielders firing as quickly as possible,

It will be up to Youri Tielemens to pick the Russian back line in this one and I do think Belgium are likely going to be too strong, although the hosts will look back at their performances at the World Cup as to what they can achieve with home support.

Russia are a little one-dimensional, but they have a huge target man in Artem Dzyuba who can give Belgium something to think about when at his physical best.

You can imagine Russia will want to defend in numbers and ask Belgium to break them down, while looking to counter where they can and they did show at the last World Cup that they are willing to put in the yards to do that. It could make it tough for a Belgium team that knows Eden Hazard is short of his best and Kevin De Bruyne may be missing, but I think one of the leading favourites can find a way to earn the victory in St Petersburg with Romelu Lukaku leading the line.

I do think Russia will believe there is an opportunity for them and a point would be a massive result for them, especially with four of the third place teams earning a spot in the Last 16. With Finland and Denmark to come, Russia would take a point from the favourites, but it will also be important to avoid a heavy loss and I think a defensive performance will be in the offing from one of the two hosts in this Group.

However, I think Belgium are used to facing teams with that kind of mindset and they can find the goal or goals needed to win the fixture.

Sunday 13th June

England vs Croatia Pick: An opening game in Group D looks like one that could end up producing the eventual winner of the section, but both England and Croatia dare not lose this one either.

Having four of the third place teams making it through to the Last 16 will help both of these nations, but a defeat does build pressure right off the bat.

England have home advantage through the Group Stage and I do think that could be important for them to top the section. They have won 9 of their last 10 games at Wembley Stadium and England did beat Belgium and Poland here over the season which suggests they are confident even when taking on some of the better teams in Europe.

Three years ago this would have looked a tough challenge against a Croatia team who could dominate the ball and who had plenty of quality and experience littered throughout the eleven. While they still have some really good players, Croatia have lost some key members from the team that reached the World Cup Final and it has resulted in Croatia struggling for consistency ever since then.

The away form in particular has to be a concern for a team that is facing two legitimate away games in this Group and Croatia's performance in the last Nations League is a real concern. They were beaten at Portugal, France and Sweden in that Group, while the previous Nations League Group saw Croatia lose at Spain and here in England with all of those matches taking place since the last World Cup.

The lack of away wins is a concern, but Croatia have serious questions about a defence which has conceded at least twice in all 5 away Nations League defeats. They have also lost 1-0 at Slovenia in the opening World Cup Qualifiers played in March and I do think England have the quality in the final third to hurt this team.

Croatia may feel they can say the same about the England defence, but they have perhaps not had the same consistency as their hosts in the final third and that could be the difference on the day.

Both teams could play their part in this opening fixture, but two late goals helped England beat Croatia 2-1 here in a Nations League game in November 2018 and I think a similar scoreline may be the outcome of this one too.

Austria vs North Macedonia Pick: These nations actually met in the Euro 2020 Qualifying Group and it was Austria who won both games against North Macedonia while looking for redemption for a really poor showing at Euro 2016.

Five years ago Austria headed to France for the Euro 2016 Finals as one of the dark horses for the competition, but they were very disappointing and ended up being one of the first eight teams eliminated in the Group Stage. They struggled for form since then, but Austria have rounded into some form as they made their way back to another European Championship.

They also topped their last Nations League Group, but Austria have had a mixed start to the World Cup Qualifiers and there is not a lot of confidence back home. I have little doubt there is some quality in the squad, but Austria will need to make hay in their opening fixture if they are even going to challenge for one of the best third placed finishers in the Group Stage.

Those wins over North Macedonia will give Austria some confidence despite a poor run of form, but the underdogs have very little to lose in the tournament. That makes them potentially dangerous and anyone who thinks they will be a walkover could be in for a surprise if North Macedonia can replicate the performance back in March when beating Germany away from home in a World Cup Qualifier.

North Macedonia came through the Play Offs with a place offered to those nations that have historically struggled to compete for a spot at a major international tournament. The performances against teams of a similar level has helped the confidence of the North Macedonian players and this is a team that will feel they can challenge others by making sure they out-work opponents.

Ultimately it will come down to whether North Macedonia can defend well enough to keep Austria at bay, but they conceded six goals in two Qualifiers against this nation. Poland and Austria both did the double over North Macedonia in the Euro 2020 Qualifiers, while Romania beat them 3-2 in the World Cup Qualifiers just days before the huge upset over Germany.

All of the pressure looks to be on Austria, but the low-key manner in which they are going into this European Championship compared with five years ago can work in their favour. The Austrians should be able to create the chances to score the goals to win this game, although I would not be surprised if North Macedonia play their part in their first ever fixture at this level.

Netherlands vs Ukraine Pick: If this tournament had been played in the scheduled summer a year ago I do think the Netherlands would have had plenty of supporters behind them to go all the way as they made their return to a major international tournament. Since then things have changed and they lost their big name manager and their mainstay at centre half and the Netherlands now look like a team that will do well to even make the final four.

There is still some talent available, but Frank de Boer is hard to really trust as a manager.

Holland will at least benefit from being placed in a weak looking section and with three home games to come in the Group Stage I do think they will be more than good enough to work their way past their three opponents.

The most challenging nation in the Group may be Ukraine who Qualified ahead of Portugal and Serbia, but like the Dutch the feeling is that the Euro 2020 postponement has not really worked in their favour. It is hard to get a read of their form as they were relegated from their Nations League Group, but largely because of Covid issues decimating the squad, while Ukraine earned a draw at France in the World Cup Qualifiers in March before having to settle for the same result against Finland and Kazakhstan at home.

Andriy Shevchenko has made his team a tough one to face and Ukraine have plenty of positive results to look back upon since the last World Cup, but turning draws into wins is the big challenge for them. They don't score or concede a lot of goals, but this fixture is being played in Amsterdam and Ukraine are perhaps vulnerable any time they come across a host in this competiton.

Fortunately for the Ukraine they are only in a section with one host and I think they can still recover even if they are beaten by the Dutch.

Despite the inconsistencies that Holland have shown over the last several months under their new manager, this is a team that has some magic in it and they should have enough to edge past Ukraine. The feeling is that the Netherlands will need to score at least twice to do that, but the home fans have seen the team score five times in their last 2 friendlies in this country and I think Holland will get their first three points on the board on Sunday.

Monday 14th June

Scotland vs Czech Republic Pick: The second game in Group D of the Euro 2020 Tournament is played on Monday afternoon and this feels like a very important fixture for both Scotland and the Czech Republic.

Both will likely know they are going to be underdogs against the other two teams in the Group, but three points could be enough to secure one of the best third place finished and a path into the Last 16. That will increase the pressure on both Scotland and Czech Republic as they will likely view the other as the best opportunity to secure those three points and I think that makes this a tough game to get a grip on.

Having home advantage has to be important for Scotland, especially with the fans in attendance, and Steve Clarke will likely be reminding his players that the game against England coming up later in the week cannot be a distraction. The manager has certainly got his Scotland team to come together pretty well and they have been tough to beat at Hampden Park since the back to back losses to Belgium and Russia in the Qualifying Group.

The Czech Republic will know about that having suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat here in the Nations League in October 2020 and their away form is a slight concern. They lost 3 of their 4 away Qualifying games despite finishing behind England in the Group and one of those was a defeat at Wembley, while the Czech Republic have also lost at Wales in March in a World Cup Qualifier.

There is no doubting the talent that the Czech Republic can call upon, but that inconsistency on their travels is a concern with two away games to come in the Group Stage at Euro 2020. Losing 3 games in the UK without scoring a goal is another mental obstacle to overcome and I can see Steve Clarke looking to frustrate the visitors and looking for Scotland to take advantage of the defensive errors which can come from this Czech Republic team.

It may come down to which of these teams handles the pressure the best on the day, but Scotland are going to have the backing from the stands. They have been decent at home of late and facing an inconsistent team, I can see Scotland finding a way to edge to a victory although they will have to weather a storm at some point.

Backing the Scots as an underdog on the Asian Handicap looks the play even if history suggests Scotland are more likely to lose this game, beat England and then miss Qualification for the Last 16 by losing another home game against Croatia.

Poland vs Slovakia Pick: A strong Qualifying campaign has taken Poland back into the Euro Finals, but the nation were not happy with the style and it was never going to be a happy ending for Jerzy Brzeczek when Robert Lewandowski voiced his own concerns.

An attacking minded manager has come in, but Paulo Sousa has not had a lot of time to manage the national team and Poland's mixed performances in the World Cup Qualifiers make you wonder how far this side can go in the Euro 2020 Finals despite having Lewandowski leading the line.

Poland did reach the Quarter Final of the Euro 2016 and they were only beaten on Penalties by eventual Champions Portugal, but the terrible performance at the last World Cup has just lowered expectations.

They should be good enough to get out of this section, but you do feel the opening fixture against Slovakia is going to be a huge one for Poland. Anything less than the three points and there will be a pressure on them when they head to Sevilla to take on Spain next week, but Poland could not have really asked for a better opening opponent.

Slovakia Qualified with a Penalty Shoot Out success over the Republic of Ireland and followed up with an Extra Time win over Northern Ireland in the Play Offs. A poor Nations League campaign saw them relegated from League B, while Slovakia have continued to struggle for goals which makes them vulnerable.

Marek Hamsik's best days are behind him and the feeling is that Slovakia are going to try and grind teams down mentally by keeping a strong defensive shape and hoping something breaks on the counter attack or from a set piece.

However, in Robert Lewandowski, Poland do have a striker that can take any chance that does drop his way and the feeling is that the favourites will have a little too much firepower and attacking intent to force Slovakia to crack. The Poland defence might be vulnerable as this tournament progresses, but they should have enough to edge past Slovakia in this opening fixture and at least mean they are in a good position to Qualify for the Last 16 when facing Sweden here a week on Wednesday.

Spain vs Sweden Pick: The decision to move the Spanish host games from Bilbao to Seville should actually give Spain a bigger advantage than they would have been enjoying anyway in this Group.

They are not only favourites to progress, but Spain will be expected to top the Group which should earn them a relatively decent Last 16 tie. However, this is not the Spain that dominated international football between 2008-2012 and a transitional period has seen them struggle once they have gotten to the Finals much as they were known to do before that period.

Spain have reached the Nations League Semi Final which will take place later this season, but a poor set of results in the World Cup Qualifiers in March and the decision made to not include any members from Real Madrid has put the pressure on Luis Enrique.

While the team have not made the Quarter Final of a major tournament since winning Euro 2012, Spanish fans are expecting a run to that stage as a bare minimum with the way the draw has panned out for them.

Winning the Group will be important, but Spain have also been dealing with a Covid-19 issue in the camp which has ruled out Sergio Busquets for at least the opening match. The squad are set to be vaccinated, but the manager has been upset with the timing in case it leads to any adverse symptoms for key players and Spain are not coming into the tournament as comfortably as they may have been hoping.

They did beat Sweden twice in the Qualifying Group for the Euro 2020 Finals, but they should respect the Scandinavians who will work hard and have some young talent who will be looking to have a breakout tournament. Zlatan Ibrahimovic is out of the tournament with an injury, but there looks to be a solid mindset going into the Euro 2020 Finals and Sweden were World Cup Quarter Finalists three years ago.

These teams will meet again in the World Cup Qualifiers later this year, but home advantage should be key for Spain who took four points from Sweden in the Euro 2020 Qualifiers. Three second half goals secured the 3-0 win for Spain at home, but this one should be a bit tighter considering the build up for the hosts.

In saying that, I do think Spain are going to have a touch too much for Sweden and they can at least ease some of the pressure that has been building with a good start to Euro 2020.

Tuesday 15th June

Hungary vs Poland Pick: Group F looks like it is going to be a real battle for the top two places and even earning one of the best third places spot will come down to the wire.

France and Germany are the other two teams in the section, but Hungary look like being the outsiders even though they are benefiting from two home games in the Group Stage.

The first one for Hungary is against Portugal, but losing Dominik Szoboszlai is a major blow for a nation that had to come through the Play Off against Iceland to reach the Euro 2020 Finals. Hungary needed two late goals to come from behind and beat Iceland that day, but manager Marco Rossi is going to have to curb his attacking intent if he is going to give Hungary a chance.

It might be against the logic though as Hungary may not have any other choice but to go after the other teams in the Group with draws not likely to be good enough to earn a spot in the Last 16. The chances are that Hungary will need to win at least one of the Group matches and they will be hoping to perhaps catch either Portugal or France peeking past them.

The defending European Champions should be experienced enough to avoid that though and manager Fernando Santos is plenty knowledgable about Tournament Football and how to approach it. He will likely know Portugal need to have a good start to the Tournament and can't really rely on draws like they did to win Euro 2016, but Fernando Santos does benefit from a much stronger squad than the one that won the title in France five years ago.

I expect the likes of Ruben Dias, Joao Cancelo and Bruno Fernandes to have benefited from the last season with the experiences they had and Portugal look to be more than Cristiano Ronaldo this time around. They will still rely on the goals of Ronaldo, but others can chip in and Portugal's performances in the Nations League will be encouraging as they take on this Group Stage.

Portugal have shown their cutting edge in front of goal and that makes them dangerous in this Tournament, although there is a pressure to get off to a good start. They have won 3 previous matches played in Hungary including in the 2018 World Cup Qualifiers which should help, and Portugal have won 4 of their last 6 away games in competitive fixtures and have scored at least twice in 5 of those 6 games too.

I do have to respect the fact that Hungary can be difficult to play in Budapest and they do score goals here. However, Russia and Poland have both scored three times here in the last season and I think Portugal are a stronger team than both of those so they can certainly score at least twice, which is what they may need to secure the win.

Marco Rossi is a manager that likes his team to play attacking football which could make the opener a fun game, but my feeling is that Portugal are a genuine contender to win this title and can open up with a vital victory.

France vs Germany Pick: There are some wonderful fixtures to come throughout the Group Stage of the Euro 2020 Finals, but the opening round of fixtures may be saving the best for last.

Germany and France are dominant European nations that have won plenty of major titles between them, although at this stage it looks like France are on the up and Germany may have to wait until Qatar 2022 or the next European Championships they host before they are genuine title contenders again.

You can never rule out Germany, but this team looks to be lacking something and it may need Joachim Low's departure to just freshen things up. That will happen after this Tournament no matter how it ends, and the inconsistencies of the German national team since the horrible effort at the last World Cup means many fans are not expecting big things from them.

They might be hosting three Group games, but Germany have not been helped by what looks to be a terrible draw as they face European Champions Portugal and World Champions France in the opening stages. There could be some real pressure on Germany when it comes to hosting Hungary in the final Group game if they cannot get a lot of change out of France and Portugal and this opener looks a very difficult game.

Germany are still struggling at the back and now face a France team which looks to be loaded with talent and depth and one that is looking to win back to back major international tournaments. Didier Deschamps was still Captaining his nation when they did that in 1998 and 2000 and he will be looking to pass on his experience to a quality team that are rightly considered favourites along with Belgium.

While Germany struggled with the better nations faced in League A of the Nations League, France have actually played really well and Qualified for the final stages of the 2021 edition of the newly created competition. They won away games at Sweden, Croatia and Portugal last Autumn and France have enjoyed visits to Germany over the years which should give them confidence for the opening fixture of Euro 2020.

It is a really intriguing fixture for both of these nations and could set the tone for the entire tournament- a win for Germany may see the players given a huge boost of confidence to take forward, while France will be looking to show they are the team to beat after winning the World Cup three years ago.

My feeling is that the France pace in the final third is going to really worry the Germans and that can see them hold the edge. They look defensively more sound than the hosts and France can take a big step towards the Last 16 by winning here.

While France can throw in a shocking performance, I think the historical strength of Germany keeps them focused in this fixture and I think France edge to a narrow win in Munich.

MY PICKS: Italy to Win & Over 1.5 Total Goals @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wales + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Denmark to Win & Over 1.5 Total Goals @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Belgium @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)

England to Win & Over 1.5 Total Goals @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)

Austria to Win & Over 1.5 Total Goals @ 2.37 Bet365 (2 Units)

Netherlands to Win & Over 1.5 Total Goals @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Scotland 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Poland & Under 5 Total Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Spain & Under 4 Total Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Portugal & Over 1 Total Goal @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

France 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet Victor (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Picks 2016 (November 18th)

It was Milos Raonic who joined Novak Djokovic in the Semi Finals of the ATP World Tour Finals on Thursday after winning his 'winner takes all' match against Dominic Thiem.

Both players will be interested to see how the other Group goes on Friday as neither is going to know who they are playing at this moment in time as three players are still in contention of going through.

For two players the permutations are pretty simple- Andy Murray needs to win a set to make sure of his place in the Semi Final although his final position in the Group would be decided later in the evening if he was to lose in three sets to Stan Wawrinka. Any win puts Murray through as Group Winner while a straight sets loss would actually put him in a vulnerable position to even make it through to the next Round.

Marin Cilic has been knocked out of the tournament after losing in straight sets to Stan Wawrinka a couple of days ago.

Things for Nishikori are much murkier and there are a number of different prospects for him- a Murray win would mean Nishikori simply needs to win too if he wants to make it through. However a Murray win in straight sets would send Nishikori through in second place regardless of how his match with Cilic was to go later in the evening, while a three set Murray win would mean Nishikori needs at least a set to go through or he would be relying on the games to get him into a position to do so.

A straight sets win for Wawrinka would mean a win for Nishikori wins him the Group and sends him and Wawrinka through to the Semi Final. However a three set win for Wawrinka would mean Nishikori winning the Group if he beats Cilic in straight sets and coming second if he wins in three sets.

I believe that is the right permutations but the players don't know what is happening half the time in these final Group matches and the fans are also unsure. It will certainly become clearer after the first match of the afternoon between Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori should know exactly what he needs to do by the time he heads out onto the court.


The picks finally went 2-0 on Thursday and not before time either- I really thought Milos Raonic had missed his chance for the second break of serve I needed to complete the sweep on the day, but thankfully he came back from 30-0 down to take his second match point and beat a tired Dominic Thiem 76, 63.

That was in the evening session after Novak Djokovic dominated David Goffin earlier in the day to go 3-0 in the Group and get into a position to take the World Number 1 spot from Andy Murray. That battle will almost certainly go down to the wire unless Stan Wawrinka can stun the home favourite on Friday and Kei Nishikori can beat Marin Cilic.


Stan Wawrinka + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: These two players are meeting for just the second time in 2016 with the first ending in a comfortable win for Andy Murray at the French Open in the Semi Final. Prior to that the last match between Murray and Stan Wawrinka actually came at the O2 Arena last year in a final Group match which saw Wawrinka beat Murray in straight sets and move through to the Semi Final at his expense.

The same could happen this Friday in the first match of the afternoon as a straight sets win will put Stan Wawrinka through to the Semi Final yet again at the World Tour Finals. He is coming in off a much more impressive performance than what Wawrinka could produce in his straight sets loss to Kei Nishikori and the Swiss player will believe he can do enough to win this match.

It will be interesting to see the kind of levels that Murray can produce after struggling for over three hours in his win over Nishikori just two days ago. He has played so much tennis in recent weeks and that match has to have taken a toll on a player that hasn't faced the top competition in his run of wins in the last month.

Someone like Wawrinka won't be overawed by playing Murray and bringing his best to the court will give him every chance to beat a tired opponent. The home favourite does need a set to make it through to the Semi Finals, but Wawrinka will be more motivated throughout and I do think he can win this match outright.

However, I think taking the games here might make the most sense at odds against and I like Wawrinka giving himself a chance to win this match at the least. Murray is unlikely to give up or not offer his best, but I do think he could have some fatigue issues and might have preferred coming on in the evening for a few more hours rest.

This has all the makings of a tight match and I do think Wawrinka can be backed with the games to at least keep things competitive in what could be another gruelling match for Murray.


Marin Cilic + 1.5 games v Kei Nishikori: There is plenty on the line for Kei Nishikori as he looks for the win that will be enough to take him through to the Semi Finals. Regardless of what happens in the first match, a win would be enough to take the Japanese player into the next Round, although he potentially only needs a set if Andy Murray has won the match against Stan Wawrinka earlier in the day.

You can't predict with any accuracy what will be required for Nishikori by the time this match begins, but my personal opinion is that Stan Wawrinka may just get the better of Murray and so Nishikori might be under pressure to earn a win. He does have a strong record against Marin Cilic, although it should be noted that it was the latter who won their most recent match last month in the Final in Basel.

Cilic doesn't have a lot to play for, but won't want to head into the Davis Cup Final after losing all three matches in the Group here in London. That should be motivation enough despite being out of the tournament and I do think he will bring in a full effort in this match. The Croatian might also have an edge with the energy he has in the tank after Nishikori was put through the ringer against Andy Murray and spending so much time on court on Wednesday in that loss.

We have seen in the past that Nishikori can struggle with his conditioning and that match with Murray is certainly going to be on that tests what he has left for this tournament. That should enable Cilic to get into this one and he did show in Basel that he can take advantage of the second serve that Nishikori possesses, a second serve that may have a little less on it than usual if Nishikori is feeling the strain of his second match in the Group.

It might also mean Nishikori is not as quick around the court as he was and Cilic has the firepower to drag him out of the tournament with him. I do think Cilic has every chance of winning this match outright, but I will back him with the small amount of games being given to him and look for a competitive match at the least.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilc + 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-5, - 0.02 Units (20 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Picks 2016 (November 16th)

It was arguably the best day of tennis at the O2 Arena so far this week with both tennis matches giving the paying public the excitement they would have wanted. We have also seen the first player through to the Semi Final as Novak Djokovic won Group A with a two tiebreaker success over Milos Raonic, while Gael Monfils was sent home after falling in three sets to Dominic Thiem.

I have to admit I was a little frustrated that Monfils couldn't get the job done against Thiem, but the losing run for the picks was ended by Raonic later in the evening. It does mean Thursday night will see Raonic take on Thiem for a place in the Semi Final while the other two players in the Group meet earlier in the day. I wouldn't be hugely surprised if Monfils pulls out and allows an alternate to come in and play in that Group match as Novak Djokovic hopes to go unbeaten and get plenty of rest before the Semi Final is played on Saturday.

On Wednesday it is the turn of Group B to play their second round robin of matches as the two winners and two losers from Monday. Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori actually got the early afternoon spot and it is Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic that play in the evening and both matches look interesting.

I certainly expect more from Stan Wawrinka who looked terrible and disinterested in his loss on Monday which took a little over an hour to be achieved. Hopefully it will be two very good matches on Wednesday for the viewers and I also hope to get back to winning ways with the two picks I have.


Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Kei Nishikori: There have been two epic matches between Kei Nishikori and Andy Murray this season and those two five setters have been split with one win apiece. The most recent match took place at the US Open when Nishikori battled back from 2-1 down in sets to win that match and snap a four match losing run to Murray, but the new World Number 1 can earn a measure of revenge for that defeat on Wednesday.

There were some nerves initially in the way Murray began this tournament, but he looked a much stronger player by the time the end of the victory over Marin Cilic was being completed. He can't afford a slow start in this one against a confident Nishikori who dismissed Stan Wawrinka as easily as he did on Monday, although I do have to say I feel the Swiss player made life much more comfortable for Nishikori than it should have been.

The Murray levels don't fluctuate as much as Wawrinka's do and Nishikori has to get far more than 45% of first serves in play if he wants to win and virtually move through to the Semi Finals here. It is Murray who has the far bigger serve and he is one of the more attacking returners when he sees the second serve and I think having a win under his belt in the Group should relax Murray for a better all around performance than he had on Monday.

Their Davis Cup tie produced some tight sets, but Murray has used his dominance in the service stats to help break the Nishikori serve a couple of times and set up a comfortable set or two. That could be a key in this match as I can see Murray taking a set either 61 or 62 which will give him a chance to cover this number even if he needs three sets to win the match.

Murray won two of the first three sets at the US Open and would have covered this number as he did at the Olympic Games and in their two meetings in 2015. The Davis Cup tie looks the exception to the rule and I will back the World Number 1 to move to the brink of winning this Group and avoiding a potential Semi Final with Novak Djokovic.


Stan Wawrinka + 1.5 games v Marin Cilic: I have really no idea why Stan Wawrinka looked as flat as he did in the defeat to Kei Nishikori on Monday, but it might have something to do with what he admits to anyone who listens. Wawrinka has made it clear that he doesn't think about cracking the Novak Djokovic-Andy Murray top two positions in the World Rankings because of his lack of consistency and Wawrinka can sometimes produce some of these really strange performances.

He can get away with it to some extent at the World Tour Finals with another chance to get back into the Group and maintain his run of Semi Final appearances at this tournament. I do worry that the conditions are not suiting him as much as usual with the slightly speedier courts taking away some of the time Wawrinka likes, but I am going to back him as the underdog on Wednesday evening.

Wawrinka holds a dominant 10-2 head to head record with Marin Cilic who blew a big opportunity to beat Andy Murray on Monday. It is Wawrinka who has won six in a row against Cilic and I do have to say that he produced a listless performance against Rafael Nadal in his opening match last season before turning it around with two Group wins and a place in the Semi Finals.

There is no doubt that Wawrinka has to serve better than he did on Monday, but Cilic will have some mental obstacles to overcome too. Those losses to Wawrinka won't be easy to forget and he will know he had his chances against Murray, while Cilic might also be thinking ahead to the Davis Cup Final that is upcoming.

It is the expectation that Wawrinka will be better than Monday which drives my pick. With that head to head over Cilic behind him and the fact that all is not lost for him in the Group, Wawrinka can't be any worse than he was on Monday and I expect he wins a tight match outright. However I will take the games being given to him in what could be a tough match that goes down to the wire and will look for the Swiss player to set up a huge match with Andy Murray which will decide his fate in the Group for a second year in a row.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka + 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-4, - 3.50 Units (12 Units Staked, - 29.17% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Picks 2016 (November 14th)

The ATP World Tour Finals got underway on Sunday and while this remains a big tournament for anyone to win, the focus might be on the battle between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray for the right to end the year with the World Number 1 Ranking.

Murray has the edge at the moment, but Novak Djokovic made a winning start to his campaign after coming from a set behind to beat Dominic Thiem. Losing that set might raise some questions, but I think Djokovic was the better player and just didn't play the big point as well as he could have early in the match which might have set up a much more straightforward day in the office.

He did serve better than I may have expected though although that will be something to keep an eye on in the next few days and there were some signs of frustration which can't be ignored. However I still expect that win to spark Novak Djokovic through to the Semi Final and have a chance to reclaim the World Number 1 spot by winning the title in London yet again.

There were also no real problems for Milos Raonic who beat Gael Monfils easily in the second match having had all the chances. That means it is Raonic versus Djokovic on Tuesday with Monfils taking on Thiem in a situation where the losing player will be all but out of the tournament.


Monday sees Group B get underway and I think every match in this section is going to be fascinating to watch. Andy Murray might be the big favourite to win the tournament, but I don't think it is clear cut that he comes out of this Group and will surely be tested by the other three players in the Group.


The picks went 1-1 on Sunday with Novak Djokovic covering and Gael Monfils failing to do the same, but I do hope we can start putting some positive results together on Monday.


Stan Wawrinka + 1.5 games v Kei Nishikori: The conditions in London look faster than they have been for the World Tour Finals in recent years. It will be interesting to see how the players deal with things in the coming days, but neither Stan Wawrinka nor Kei Nishikori can afford to make a slow start in their adjustments in what looks a very strong Group.

Only two players will go through to the Semi Finals so the winning player in this one will take a big step towards that, although it is Andy Murray that will be considered a big favourite to go through. It isn't straightforward though with Wawrinka and Nishikori both knowing they are capable of beating Murray and so their opening match against one another is going to be very interesting.

It has all the makings of a really tight match and their past matches against one another suggests that will be the case with one or two key points making the difference. Stan Wawrinka has a definite power edge in the contest, but Kei Nishikori might feel he has the better consistency although a faster surface should give Wawrinka a little edge which can make all the difference.

The only Swiss representative in the World Tour Finals has the bigger serve too and that can only aid Wawrinka although he hasn't really performed to the standards that saw him win the US Open since that triumph. Nishikori did reach the Final in Basel where the conditions will likely be similar to the ones he sees in London, but I wouldn't be surprised if we need to go deep into a third set to separate these players.

I do think Wawrinka can win this one outright if he can serve well, but I will take the games at a decent price and look for him to keep it close even if he doesn't quite have enough to take the victory.


Marin Cilic + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: This was initially a 4.5 game start for Marin Cilic which would have been very appealing, but taking the games at odds against still looks a positive in this second match in Group B on Monday evening. Cilic will be battling the home fans as well as the World Number 1 Andy Murray who is coming into this tournament looking to have a big run in London for the first time.

Both players have been in very good form in the indoor portion of the tennis season and the quicker conditions in London will give Cilic a real chance to upset players in the World Tour Finals. If he is serving well he can get a few short balls from which he can penetrate the Murray defences and he did beat the British player when they met in the quick conditions of Cincinnati.

I don't think this court will be as quick as Cincinnati or Dubai, but we saw Murray have some issues with the big hitting from Fernando Verdasco and Tomas Berdych when he played those two in Paris. The courts at the O2 Arena are expected to be of a similar speed as the ones in Paris so Cilic has to feel he has the power to break down the Murray defences too.

Murray is going to be very motivated here this week, and he has a lot of momentum behind him having been on a long winning run since losing in the US Open Quarter Final. However he has beaten none of the top eight players in that run and he has lost the last two times he has played those players that have ended in these spots. On the other hand Cilic has had some big wins since the US Open and I think he will keep this one competitive and I will back him with the games in the pocket.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka + 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marin Cilic + 3.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, + 0.40 Units (4 Units Staked, + 10% Yield)

WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 24th)

This is a big week on the tennis Tour as the WTA Finals take place as well as two big ATP events in Vienna and Basel which could go a long way to deciding who the final players making it to the World Tour Finals will be.

The WTA Finals began on Sunday but the main draw in Vienna and Basel will begin on Monday and I am hoping for a decent week to back up the last two although the season has been something of a disappointment. I need to have a look back at what went wrong early in the season which meant playing catch up for much of the season, although I do feel the absence over the clay court season when I was very busy in my personal life did have a big impact on things too.

Those are thoughts heading into the 2017 season and something to analyse over the off-season, but for now I am concentrating on the final weeks of the 2016 season.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Svetlana Kuznetsova: The head to head might ready 12-4 in favour of Svetlana Kuznetsova, but I have very little idea how the Russian is going to be ready for this opening game in the Group. On Saturday Kuznetsova won the title in Moscow to earn the eighth and final spot in the WTA Finals but she had little time to rest as she caught an evening flight to Singapore.

That means a long journey followed by adjusting to a new time zone and that is going to be tough on the body and mind of Kuznetsova. With all the tennis Kuznetsova has had to play over the last three weeks to keep winning and staying contention for the WTA Finals and I think that has to play a part in this one.

Radwanska is also the defending Champion of the WTA Finals, although I am not reading too much into that. She actually doesn't have the best record in this event (4-5 in Singapore and 7-12 in full appearances in the WTA Finals) and even last year was only 3-2, but won her matches at the right time after struggling out of the Group. However she won't have too many better chances to beat Kuznetsova again having been in Singapore adjusting for a few days and definitely looking like she should have more in the tank both physically and mentally.

They did play in Wuhan recently and Radwanska should really have won that match. I expect her to get the better of Kuznetsova this time though with the factors in her favour on Monday and I think she will come through 64, 62 to put herself in a solid position to get through to the Semi Final for the fourth time in five appearances in the Final.


Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: For someone who has been fairly consistent on the WTA Tour it might be a surprise that Karolina Pliskova is making it to the WTA Finals for the first time. However Pliskova had regularly failed to make an impact at the Grand Slam level before 2016 and the US Open Finalist has had some big results to make it through to Singapore this year.

She might be considered one of the favourites to win the tournament with some doubts about the leading contenders and Pliskova can underline that status if she can beat Garbine Muguruza in her first match. The Spaniard might have won the French Open, but the second half of 2016 has been a struggle for her while her fitness might be questioned having pulled out in Linz during her Quarter Final.

Expect to see plenty of big hitting tennis in this one with both Pliskova and Muguruza producing plenty of power off the ground and behind the serve. The form certainly seems to point to Pliskova as being the more likely to find some consistency in her play and she has beaten Muguruza the last three times they have played including a very comfortable win in the Cincinnati Semi Final on her way to winning that tournament.

That has to give Pliskova confidence and if there is any limitation to the Muguruza movement it is going to be difficult for her to contain the power coming from the other side of the court. I have no doubt Muguruza will have her moments, but the steadier play should come from Pliskova who can win this one 64, 64 and get into a strong position to progress from this Group.


John Isner - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: I am beginning to wonder if John Isner has hit his peak and is now going to be slipping down the World Rankings in the coming months. He comes into this tournament in Number 27 spot of the World Rankings and Isner would love to get a few wins under his belt to close 2016 and ensure he is in a good position to be Seeded at the Australian Open.

He might have hoped for a slightly more straightforward First Round match than facing Qualifier Jan-Lennard Struff who is very comfortable on the indoor hard courts. Struff has won plenty of matches recently including two in the Qualifiers in Vienna and those wins would have given him confidence, but dealing with the Isner serve is always a challenge.

I think it is the Isner serve that will make the difference because Struff can be guilty of throwing away his own serve at times. He faced a whole host of break points last week in Antwerp and while Isner is not the greatest returner on the Tour, the pressure brought by his own serve can see players make mistakes when it comes to the crucial points in matches.

I also think Isner's poor form is down to some of the draws he has received and Struff is not of the level of the likes of Alexander Zverev and Juan Martin Del Potro who have beaten Isner recently. The American does prefer to have a little more time on the ball, which won't be the case here, but I think he will earn at least one break of serve which might be enough for a 76, 64 win in this First Round match in Vienna.


Nicolas Almagro - 1.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: Playing on the hard courts has been a difficulty for Nicolas Almagro over the last couple of years with injury and loss of form on the surface making up his record. Almagro has had some poor results of late and struggles against opponents he shouldn't really be struggling against more than he should, but I think he can get a measure of revenge over Damir Dzumhur who beat him on the clay courts three months ago.

Dzumhur has had to come through the Qualifiers this week and I expect those two wins has to give him some confidence. However this has been a rarity for Dzumhur on the hard courts and outside of a really good run in Miami he has struggled for wins on the surface.

The Bosnian has been mixing indoor hard court events with clay court events, which is not always idea, while he couldn't continue in a match last week in Moscow. If Dzumhur is a little short of his very best, he is going to have a difficult time looking after his serve and that should give Almagro a chance to put together a revenge win after the defeat in Umag to this player.

Backing Almagro has not proved to be very effective on this surface, but I think this could be an occasion where he should be able to get the better of his opponent. He has to return better than he did when these players met in Umag, but I think Dzumhur is not the best on the hard courts where he finds it harder to defend and I believe the Spaniard will come through with a 75, 46, 64 win.


Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: There is still a chance for Marin Cilic to work his way into the ATP World Tour Finals, but he needs a big week in Basel to give himself an opportunity to do that. It is a long shot with Cilic perhaps more focused on the Davis Cup Final with Croatia than getting into the elite eight, but I do expect he can get off to a very strong start this week.

2016 might not have been a really special season for Cilic but he has been close in a couple of really big tournaments and winning the Davis Cup will give him something to remember. He is likely to surpass his number of wins on the Tour from 2015 which is something Cilic would perhaps had as a goal for the season and I think he can win this First Round match.

Cilic has a losing record to Mikhail Youzhny, but it is Cilic who has won the last three matches between these players with the last of those coming in 2013. Youzhny has had a recovery year after a poor 2015, but he has been struggling in the last few weeks with some heavy losses being suffered by the Russian.

I think it is a little bit of a worry for Youzhny that the last eight sets he has lost have come where he has failed to win more than three games in a set. That means he has failed to get within this number in each of those losses and I think Cilic has a big enough game to get the better of him. As long as Cilic is focused, I think he can be good enough to record a 63, 63 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.40 Units (4 Units Staked, - 10% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 5 Picks 2014 (November 13)

It is not a surprise that Novak Djokovic has won his first two matches at the O2 Arena considering his long run of wins on an indoor hard court, but his performances have been as close to perfection as you could have asked for. The 61, 61 win over Marin Cilic looks to be as much about the Croatian's issues as it has about Djokovic, but it was the 63, 60 dismantling of Stan Wawrinka, a player that shouldn't have been short of confidence heading into the match, that was so very impressive.

Wawrinka had crushed Tomas Berdych and looked to be a real threat to Djokovic's long unbeaten run on the indoor hard courts and his three year run at the O2, but even the one-sided scoreline may have been a little flattering for the Swiss World Number 4. Djokovic dominated from the back of the court and mixed in the stunning shots with the impenetrable defence that should make him a very strong favourite to win here for the third year in a row.

The Australian Open was no match for Djokovic and Roger Federer will be very much hoping that Wawrinka can pick himself up quickly with a huge Davis Cup Final to be played in a week on Friday. It will also be important for Wawrinka to move on quickly with a crucial match against Marin Cilic to come on Friday that could see him book a Semi Final place in the short term, and a little over two months from defending his Australian Open crown in the 2015 season.


Group B will be decided on Thursday as the final round robin matches are completed and it does make it interesting for the picks considering Andy Murray's mindset for the second match is likely to change depending on what happens in the first match. Roger Federer is virtually assured of his place in the Semi Final outside of Kei Nishikori beating Milos Raonic very easily and then Murray doing the same to Federer, but winning the Group is vital for the World Number 2 to avoid Novak Djokovic until the Final.

That isn't a suggestion that Federer is 'scared' of playing Djokovic as he has proven that is not the case with a win over him at the Shanghai Masters, but meeting him the Semi Final would be a disappointment for Federer with that being the Final most are expecting.

It is possible the result in the first match plays a part in the second, but I think you can guarantee that Federer won't be looking to 'tank' in his match to keep the momentum behind him and end the 2014 season with the positives that he can take into the Davis Cup Final.


Milos Raonic + 1.5 games v Kei Nishikori: The court speed hasn't helped Milos Raonic so far this week, but I have to agree with the Canadian that he has failed to impose his own game on proceedings against Roger Federer and Andy Murray. That has been a big problem for Raonic, although he has to pick up his game and definitely get a higher percentage of first serves in play if he is going to find a way to beat Kei Nishikori.

There are a few problems that Nishikori is dealing with as his wrist is giving him some problems, but he knows he has a decent chance of making the Semi Final if he can win this match and I expect the Japanese star to dig deep.

He has also beaten Raonic in four of their five previous meetings including in a tight battle at the Tokyo Final last month, but many of their matches have been close and this tournament is still awaiting their first three setter of the week. Raonic does know that losing a set puts him out of the tournament which could mean the effort might not be as forthcoming after a long season if that happens which is my biggest concern by backing him to cover with a small number of game given to him.

On the other hand, Nishikori could be demoralised if his wrist is giving him problems and perhaps preventing the bite on his own serve and there is no doubt it'll be tough for him to win this match if his serve is a problem. I'll be looking for Raonic to end his time in this tournament with some pride and at least push Nishikori to a three setter if not winning this match in straight sets.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Andy Murray: The tournament organisers and the television companies may be desperate for Andy Murray to get through to the Semi Final, but I think he could be in a position where he has to win a number of games to do that. It won't be easy against a Roger Federer in the form he has been displaying through the 2014 season and who has won the two previous matches these two have competed in through the season.

Roger Federer remains one of the top indoor players in the world and he has been very good in his first two matches here and I don't believe the Andy Murray short ball that caused Milos Raonic so many problems has the same effect here.

They have also met three times at the O2 Arena since the End of Year Championships have moved to London and Roger Federer has won all three of those matches so the conditions seem to suit him. The slower courts give Murray a chance with his athleticism to make a lot of balls back in play, but Federer's aggression should prove to be a difference maker between the players.

Federer could be qualified by the time these players take to court, but he can play with the extra freedom that brings although he has lost one of his three matches in the Group over the last couple of years. However, this is the kind of match that should excite Federer and winning the Group is still a big goal of his you would imagine so I like him to prove too strong for Murray for a fourth time in this Arena and third time in 2014.

MY PICKS: Milos Raonic + 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 6-2, + 8.94 Units (16 Units Staked, + 55.88% Yield)