The ATP World Tour Finals have got a couple of 'winner takes all' contests in the Group Stage this week before the Semi Finals are set for Saturday.
It is something of a disadvantage that the players in the second Group have to play Friday and then take on rested opponents on Saturday, but at this level of the Tennis Tour I would not expect it to be a tremendous problem in a best of three set situation.
However you would also be foolish to ignore the fact that the players in the second Group are only 6-12 in the Semi Final matches since this tournament has moved to the O2 Arena in London and that has to be on the mind of someone like Grigor Dimitrov who has already won the second Group.
Unfortunately tennis is a sport in which it can be hard to simply give up without looking bad in front of the paying public and I expect Dimitrov to put in a full effort in his remaining Group match against Pablo Carreno Busta.
His Semi Final has yet to be decided while I am writing this, but Dimitrov would likely be a slight favourite against Alexander Zverev and a stronger one against Jack Sock depending who has won their Semi Final on Thursday evening.
The other Semi Final will be between Roger Federer and the winner of the Dominic Thiem versus David Goffin Group match which is played on Friday. Regardless of the winner, Roger Federer is going to be a big favourite to move through to the Final on Sunday and I expect the prices will reflect that.
David Goffin v Dominic Thiem: There are factors in play here which does make it harder to figure out who will be moving through to the Semi Final at the ATP World Tour Finals when Dominic Thiem and David Goffin play one another on Friday afternoon. Both players have a win over a Spanish opponent to get into this decider with Goffin beating an injured Rafael Nadal and Thiem beating alternate Pablo Carreno Busta in three sets on Wednesday.
Both have been beaten by Grigor Dimitrov this week but it has to be said that the Thiem match was a lot closer having gone down in the final set. On the other hand Goffin won just two games in his defeat a couple of days ago, but I just think things went wrong for the Belgian that day and Dimitrov couldn't miss.
The body language was not the best from Goffin who has to be looking forward to representing Belgium in the Davis Cup Final next weekend. There is the factor of him perhaps wanting to get some rest ahead of the Final beginning next Friday with Belgium's hopes resting squarely on his shoulders, but I don't think Goffin will want to head to his team with back to back defeats and getting more playing time on an indoor hard court can't hurt him.
However you can't ignore how Goffin played against Dimitrov and the body language on the day. I am chalking it up to Goffin perhaps being frustrated with how things went on the day and I expect a much better performance all around from him.
Goffin is going to be facing an opponent in Dominic Thiem who showed plenty of heart and determination in his three set win over Pablo Carreno Busta, although I think Thiem should have wonthe match much more comfortably. Fatigue issues continue to be a problem for Thiem until he is able to get a better schedule in place earlier in the season, and I think someone like Goffin is able to really highlight those with his consistency.
There is no doubting Thiem is flashier and has the power and shot making to really excite the crowd. However he has played back to back three set matches already this week which has to be a critical factor in this match, while Thiem is only 3-7 in the head to head with Goffin.
That includes losing both matches played against Goffin in 2017 and the head to head on the hard courts are 1-4 in favour of the Belgian. The speed of the court could be a problem for Goffin if Thiem is on with his shots, but I think Goffin knows how to play this match and I expect he can outlast Thiem as the underdog.
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: This is a big number of games for Grigor Dimitrov to cover when you think he is already through as the top Seed in this Group and may be concentrating on the Semi Final to come. However I think Dimitrov will want to keep the momentum going after a couple of confidence boosting wins and he should be too good for Pablo Carreno Busta.
It was a fantastic performance from Dimitrov two days ago as he crushed David Goffin in straight sets, but that was a peak Dimitrov performance and I can't see him replicating that level in this one. However I also think Dimitrov doesn't have to be as close to perfect to beat Carreno Busta in the final Group match of the 2017 ATP World Tour Finals.
The Spaniard will have some motivation considering the money on offer for each win at this tournament so I am not so concerned that he has already been knocked out. However he will have to be a lot better to beat Dimitrov having been a little fortunate to get into the position he did in the third set against Dominic Thiem a couple of days ago.
The Carreno Busta serve is his weakest shot and defending on this court has proven to be very difficult which is an issue if Dimitrov is as aggressive as he has been so far.
I also think the match with Thiem was closer than it should have been because the latter has been having a few issues with his fitness at this time of the season. Even then Carreno Busta gave up break points in over half of his service games played and trying to deal with that pressure against an opponent like Dimitrov who has broken his opponents nine times already this week could be a challenge.
Dimitrov can be a little up and down at those big moments despite what he showed against David Goffin a couple of days ago. He was only 3/8 on break points against Thiem in his first match and Dimitrov can be someone who gets flustered when dealing with those points, while Carreno Busta showed plenty of guts to save as many break points as he did in his loss.
However Carreno Busta has been in poor form since the US Open Semi Final and I think he will have difficulties to contain Dimitrov in this one. He may have won the last two matches against Dimitrov, but both came on the clay courts that would favour Carreno Busta and I think the Bulgarian is the superior player on a court like the one they will meet on on Friday evening.
If Dimitrov can take the chances that come his way more often than not, I think he is able to win this one fairly easily. He should create enough break point chances in enough games to work his way to a 6-3, 6-4 win in this final Group match.
MY PICKS: David Goffin @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 6-4, + 2.56 Units (20 Units Staked, + 12.80% Yield)
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Friday, 17 November 2017
Thursday, 16 November 2017
ATP World Tour Finals Day 5 Picks 2017 (November 16th)
The ATP World Tour Finals have a couple of players securing their spot in the Semi Final of the tournament, although the full participants for those Semi Finals have yet to be determined.
Roger Federer has won his Group and he will be a big favourite to go on and win this tournament having secured top spot with a three set win over Alexander Zverev.
On Thursday we will determine who will join Federer in the next Round when the winner of the Zverev versus Jack Sock match decides who finishes behind Federer after both of those players were beaten by the World Number 2.
That is the part of the evening session at the O2 Arena on Thursday and at least the two players who are going to be playing in the Semi Final will have a little rest before the Saturday Semi Finals, which may be seen as a disadvantage for those players in the second Group.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: The first thing you have to consider is that this is effectively a dead rubber for both players, although Roger Federer is likely to be a little more motivated as he looks to keep the momentum going through to the Semi Final. You can't ignore the financial reward for winning each match at the ATP World Tour Finals so I don't think Marin Cilic is going to just throw this match away, but I do wonder how much belief or determination he will have if he does fall behind in this match.
This tournament may be one that Cilic looks back on as an opportunity missed as he was ahead in the final set of both of his losses to Alexander Zverev and Jack Sock so far this week. In fact the Croatian was three games away from the match on both occasions and that has to play on the mind as Cilic perhaps gets ready to have a break before preparing for the 2018 season.
Cilic has motivation to show he is better than what happened in the Wimbledon Final against Roger Federer when an injury prevented the former from really giving his best. That should inspire him as he looks to leave London with a win under his belt, but I can't shake the thought that Cilic may be lacking confidence having blown a couple of matches already this week.
While having a big serve which can be very effective on this court, Cilic has not really backed it up as he would have liked and he has been broken seven times in his first two matches. Now he has to face Federer who will make sure he is getting as many balls back into play as possible and trying to break down the Cilic forehand which can go haywire when not at his best.
The court conditions in London suit Federer although he was in a real battle on Tuesday evening against Alexander Zverev before coming through in the third set. His serve is very effective at the O2 Arena although Federer has to find a way to nullify the power that Cilic will be sending his way from the other side of the court.
Getting up to the net and forcing pressurised passes and the backhand slice could be key weapons for Federer who won't be attacked with nearly the same aggression that Zverev brought to the court a couple of days ago. While Cilic does try to play on the front foot, I think he can be caught up wondering what the best approach to some matches are and I don't think he will be able to beat Federer from the back of the court in this one.
I have been a little critical of Cilic's mental approach this week as he has blown two matches and I can see Roger Federer getting ahead in this one and the Croatian perhaps having issues to dig deep enough to recover. I will look for Federer to move into the Semi Final with three wins behind him and look for a 6-4, 6-4 win for the Group winner.
Alexander Zverev-Jack Sock Over 22.5 Games: The second Semi Final place out of this Group at the ATP World Tour Finals will be decided by Alexander Zverev and Jack Sock who have both beaten Marin Cilic in three sets but lost to Roger Federer. Out of the two players it was Zverev who managed to push Federer to a third set while Sock lost in straights, but both players will feel they played well enough to have every chance of winning this match.
Both were down in the final set against Marin Cilic before managing to turn it around for a vital win and that has to give them some confidence. However I have to say that some of the body language has not looked the best from either Zverev or Sock and that makes this a harder match to predict.
In their wins over Cilic, both Zverev and Sock looked like they had nothing left to give in the final set, but they could be helped in this one with the match likely to be serve orientated. That can help them conserve some energy and the match up looks a good one with the strengths and weaknesses going up against each other.
That means it will come down to which player is able to get on the front foot and dominate the rallies and thus the points. For Sock it is all about serving well and getting the forehand into play against the Zverev forehand which can be a potent weapon, but also one that can make too many mistakes.
The backhand will be dominated by Zverev who has much more power and consistency off that wing than the American, while Zverev also has a strong serve which can put him on the front foot himself. Both are capable of getting up to the net and I really do think there is very little between them at this stage of their careers.
Once Zverev gets a little more consistency out of the forehand, I fully expect the German to not only beat the likes of Sock more often than not, but I would expect this player to become a multiple time Grand Slam Champion as well as the World Number 1. At this moment I think there is some fatigue in play for both Zverev and Sock, yet it is the latter who may have had the better recovery time having had less tennis at the tournament and also played earlier on Tuesday than his opponent.
It has all the makings of a close match and I did consider backing Sock with the start on the game handicap. However I do think Zverev is the better player and this could come down to a final sett decider which makes the total games the way to go in my opinion.
I do worry that a player could lose heart if they fall a set behind, but this feels like a match that will be dominated by the serve and a two set win with at least one tie-break is not out of the realms of possibility. A place in the Semi Final should push both players to leave it all out there and I will look for the total games to be surpassed.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev-Jack Sock Over 22.5 Total Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 4-4, - 0.64 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Roger Federer has won his Group and he will be a big favourite to go on and win this tournament having secured top spot with a three set win over Alexander Zverev.
On Thursday we will determine who will join Federer in the next Round when the winner of the Zverev versus Jack Sock match decides who finishes behind Federer after both of those players were beaten by the World Number 2.
That is the part of the evening session at the O2 Arena on Thursday and at least the two players who are going to be playing in the Semi Final will have a little rest before the Saturday Semi Finals, which may be seen as a disadvantage for those players in the second Group.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: The first thing you have to consider is that this is effectively a dead rubber for both players, although Roger Federer is likely to be a little more motivated as he looks to keep the momentum going through to the Semi Final. You can't ignore the financial reward for winning each match at the ATP World Tour Finals so I don't think Marin Cilic is going to just throw this match away, but I do wonder how much belief or determination he will have if he does fall behind in this match.
This tournament may be one that Cilic looks back on as an opportunity missed as he was ahead in the final set of both of his losses to Alexander Zverev and Jack Sock so far this week. In fact the Croatian was three games away from the match on both occasions and that has to play on the mind as Cilic perhaps gets ready to have a break before preparing for the 2018 season.
Cilic has motivation to show he is better than what happened in the Wimbledon Final against Roger Federer when an injury prevented the former from really giving his best. That should inspire him as he looks to leave London with a win under his belt, but I can't shake the thought that Cilic may be lacking confidence having blown a couple of matches already this week.
While having a big serve which can be very effective on this court, Cilic has not really backed it up as he would have liked and he has been broken seven times in his first two matches. Now he has to face Federer who will make sure he is getting as many balls back into play as possible and trying to break down the Cilic forehand which can go haywire when not at his best.
The court conditions in London suit Federer although he was in a real battle on Tuesday evening against Alexander Zverev before coming through in the third set. His serve is very effective at the O2 Arena although Federer has to find a way to nullify the power that Cilic will be sending his way from the other side of the court.
Getting up to the net and forcing pressurised passes and the backhand slice could be key weapons for Federer who won't be attacked with nearly the same aggression that Zverev brought to the court a couple of days ago. While Cilic does try to play on the front foot, I think he can be caught up wondering what the best approach to some matches are and I don't think he will be able to beat Federer from the back of the court in this one.
I have been a little critical of Cilic's mental approach this week as he has blown two matches and I can see Roger Federer getting ahead in this one and the Croatian perhaps having issues to dig deep enough to recover. I will look for Federer to move into the Semi Final with three wins behind him and look for a 6-4, 6-4 win for the Group winner.
Alexander Zverev-Jack Sock Over 22.5 Games: The second Semi Final place out of this Group at the ATP World Tour Finals will be decided by Alexander Zverev and Jack Sock who have both beaten Marin Cilic in three sets but lost to Roger Federer. Out of the two players it was Zverev who managed to push Federer to a third set while Sock lost in straights, but both players will feel they played well enough to have every chance of winning this match.
Both were down in the final set against Marin Cilic before managing to turn it around for a vital win and that has to give them some confidence. However I have to say that some of the body language has not looked the best from either Zverev or Sock and that makes this a harder match to predict.
In their wins over Cilic, both Zverev and Sock looked like they had nothing left to give in the final set, but they could be helped in this one with the match likely to be serve orientated. That can help them conserve some energy and the match up looks a good one with the strengths and weaknesses going up against each other.
That means it will come down to which player is able to get on the front foot and dominate the rallies and thus the points. For Sock it is all about serving well and getting the forehand into play against the Zverev forehand which can be a potent weapon, but also one that can make too many mistakes.
The backhand will be dominated by Zverev who has much more power and consistency off that wing than the American, while Zverev also has a strong serve which can put him on the front foot himself. Both are capable of getting up to the net and I really do think there is very little between them at this stage of their careers.
Once Zverev gets a little more consistency out of the forehand, I fully expect the German to not only beat the likes of Sock more often than not, but I would expect this player to become a multiple time Grand Slam Champion as well as the World Number 1. At this moment I think there is some fatigue in play for both Zverev and Sock, yet it is the latter who may have had the better recovery time having had less tennis at the tournament and also played earlier on Tuesday than his opponent.
It has all the makings of a close match and I did consider backing Sock with the start on the game handicap. However I do think Zverev is the better player and this could come down to a final sett decider which makes the total games the way to go in my opinion.
I do worry that a player could lose heart if they fall a set behind, but this feels like a match that will be dominated by the serve and a two set win with at least one tie-break is not out of the realms of possibility. A place in the Semi Final should push both players to leave it all out there and I will look for the total games to be surpassed.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev-Jack Sock Over 22.5 Total Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 4-4, - 0.64 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Wednesday, 15 November 2017
ATP World Tour Finals Day 4 Picks 2017 (November 15th)
It is a real shame the ATP World Tour Finals has lost Rafael Nadal because it does feel that the first Group is now a lot stronger than the second Group. The players who are back in action on Wednesday will dispute that for sure, but I would not be surprised if we get a repeat of a match seen in the first Group next Sunday when the ATP World Tour Finals Final is played.
The players in the second Group are playing their second round robin matches will certainly want to prove that prediction wrong as we look to see if another Semi Finalist can be confirmed following Roger Federer's place being secured on Tuesday.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v David Goffin: You have to have nothing but respect for the way David Goffin has been able to produce enough results to stay with the elite of the men's game when it comes to the World Rankings. However he is some way short of the very best players although Goffin has gone 4-4 in matches against fellow top ten players in 2017.
The win over Rafael Nadal came after a gruelling battle with the injured World Number 1 and I do wonder if that is going to be a factor in this one just a couple of days later. Goffin did really play well in that match, but you would be foolish to ignore the troubles Nadal has been having which flared up in that match and even then it took the Belgian some time to put away his opponent.
I am not sure this is the best court for Goffin who is so good at defending his position around the court. That could be an issue against the aggressive Grigor Dimitrov we have seen in 2017 although Goffin will feel he has the better consistency off the ground if Dimitrov is not at his best.
It has been a match up that Dimitrov has enjoyed for the most part as he has won six of their seven professional matches. However the last one of those was won by Goffin although that was a match Dimitrov will feel he blew.
That match in Rotterdam was the third time these two players have met in 2017 and it was Dimitrov who won the first two matches including at the Australian Open. In the matches won by Dimitrov over Goffin, the Bulgarian has been able to really get his teeth into the Goffin serve and he has to be better than a couple of days ago against Dominic Thiem when Dimitrov did struggle with his return.
However Thiem has a much bigger game than Goffin and the heavier shots he can produce gave Dimitrov plenty of issues. That is not going to be the case here and I do think Dimitrov can get into a position to dictate the points more often than not and that should mean he is able to push Goffin around the court and get into a position to win this match.
I also believe Goffin is perhaps a little more fatigued than Dimitrov after his battle a couple of days ago and I will look for Dimitrov to win this one 6-3, 3-6, 6-3.
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: With both players having a loss next to their name in different circumstances, this is a big match for both Dominic Thiem and Pablo Carreno Busta if they have real ambitions of making it through to the ATP World Tour Finals Semi Final on Saturday.
The defeats on the ledger means they have to really hope to win their final two matches to have a chance of getting through to the Semi Final which should make it a tense evening at the O2 Arena.
It can be tough to trust Dominic Thiem at this time of the season as he is one player who really needs to improve his scheduling to make sure he has the energy for a full season. There were some signs of fatigue in his three set loss to Grigor Dimitrov on Monday and that has to be a concern for him.
On Monday night Thiem was also staying at the same hotel as a couple of other players which had seen the fire alarm go off in the early hours. However he has had a full day of rest since then so I think Thiem should be ready to go, although I do wonder how much is left in the tank for the remainder of his 2017 season.
On the other hand Pablo Carreno Busta has inherited Rafael Nadal's loss and takes over for his compatriot who has pulled out with an injury. This is a big achievement for Carreno Busta to make it to the World Tour Finals with his strong run at the US Open showing he is more than a clay court specialist.
However Carreno Busta has not produced his best tennis since that run to the US Open Semi Final and he has a 1-5 record on the main Tour since then. Carreno Busta has taken some fairly comfortable losses to the likes of Steve Darcis, Daniil Medvedev, Albert Ramos Vinolas, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Nicolas Mahut and there is no disguising the fact that he is playing players of a higher level here in London.
Thiem has dominated the head to head having won the last four matches between these players and I do think the Austrian is the superior player on what is a pretty fast hard court. He has the consistency to break down Carreno Busta when both play on the clay courts and I think the experience of playing a match on this court only gives Thiem more of an edge.
Fatigue is a concern, but I think Carreno Busta has lost his way in the last couple of months of a career season and I think Thiem winning this one 6-3, 6-4.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 3-3, - 0.64 Units (12 Units Staked, - 5.33% Yield)
The players in the second Group are playing their second round robin matches will certainly want to prove that prediction wrong as we look to see if another Semi Finalist can be confirmed following Roger Federer's place being secured on Tuesday.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v David Goffin: You have to have nothing but respect for the way David Goffin has been able to produce enough results to stay with the elite of the men's game when it comes to the World Rankings. However he is some way short of the very best players although Goffin has gone 4-4 in matches against fellow top ten players in 2017.
The win over Rafael Nadal came after a gruelling battle with the injured World Number 1 and I do wonder if that is going to be a factor in this one just a couple of days later. Goffin did really play well in that match, but you would be foolish to ignore the troubles Nadal has been having which flared up in that match and even then it took the Belgian some time to put away his opponent.
I am not sure this is the best court for Goffin who is so good at defending his position around the court. That could be an issue against the aggressive Grigor Dimitrov we have seen in 2017 although Goffin will feel he has the better consistency off the ground if Dimitrov is not at his best.
It has been a match up that Dimitrov has enjoyed for the most part as he has won six of their seven professional matches. However the last one of those was won by Goffin although that was a match Dimitrov will feel he blew.
That match in Rotterdam was the third time these two players have met in 2017 and it was Dimitrov who won the first two matches including at the Australian Open. In the matches won by Dimitrov over Goffin, the Bulgarian has been able to really get his teeth into the Goffin serve and he has to be better than a couple of days ago against Dominic Thiem when Dimitrov did struggle with his return.
However Thiem has a much bigger game than Goffin and the heavier shots he can produce gave Dimitrov plenty of issues. That is not going to be the case here and I do think Dimitrov can get into a position to dictate the points more often than not and that should mean he is able to push Goffin around the court and get into a position to win this match.
I also believe Goffin is perhaps a little more fatigued than Dimitrov after his battle a couple of days ago and I will look for Dimitrov to win this one 6-3, 3-6, 6-3.
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: With both players having a loss next to their name in different circumstances, this is a big match for both Dominic Thiem and Pablo Carreno Busta if they have real ambitions of making it through to the ATP World Tour Finals Semi Final on Saturday.
The defeats on the ledger means they have to really hope to win their final two matches to have a chance of getting through to the Semi Final which should make it a tense evening at the O2 Arena.
It can be tough to trust Dominic Thiem at this time of the season as he is one player who really needs to improve his scheduling to make sure he has the energy for a full season. There were some signs of fatigue in his three set loss to Grigor Dimitrov on Monday and that has to be a concern for him.
On Monday night Thiem was also staying at the same hotel as a couple of other players which had seen the fire alarm go off in the early hours. However he has had a full day of rest since then so I think Thiem should be ready to go, although I do wonder how much is left in the tank for the remainder of his 2017 season.
On the other hand Pablo Carreno Busta has inherited Rafael Nadal's loss and takes over for his compatriot who has pulled out with an injury. This is a big achievement for Carreno Busta to make it to the World Tour Finals with his strong run at the US Open showing he is more than a clay court specialist.
However Carreno Busta has not produced his best tennis since that run to the US Open Semi Final and he has a 1-5 record on the main Tour since then. Carreno Busta has taken some fairly comfortable losses to the likes of Steve Darcis, Daniil Medvedev, Albert Ramos Vinolas, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Nicolas Mahut and there is no disguising the fact that he is playing players of a higher level here in London.
Thiem has dominated the head to head having won the last four matches between these players and I do think the Austrian is the superior player on what is a pretty fast hard court. He has the consistency to break down Carreno Busta when both play on the clay courts and I think the experience of playing a match on this court only gives Thiem more of an edge.
Fatigue is a concern, but I think Carreno Busta has lost his way in the last couple of months of a career season and I think Thiem winning this one 6-3, 6-4.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 3-3, - 0.64 Units (12 Units Staked, - 5.33% Yield)
Tuesday, 14 November 2017
ATP World Tour Finals Day 3 Picks 2017 (November 14th)
You have to give Rafael Nadal all the credit in the world for the bravery and intense fight he brings onto the court every time he plays, but the Spaniard was clearly struggling in his three set loss to David Goffin on Monday evening.
It wouldn't be a surprise to anyone that Nadal decided to pull out of the ATP World Tour Finals immediately after the defeat, but the Spaniard admitted he was going to do that whether he had won or lost. He has time to get ready for the Australian Open, but there is no need to risk the knees which have cost Nadal plenty of playing time throughout his career already.
2017 has been a memorable year for Nadal as he returned to the top of the World Rankings and added two more Grand Slam titles to his collection. I do hope rest is all that is needed to get back to full health and be ready for the 2018 season because seeing Nadal at his best is still something amazing to view and tennis is better for the Spaniard being at his best.
Nadal's decision means alternate Pablo Carreno Busta will enter the ATP World Tour Finals for the first time and he still has a chance of earning a Semi Final spot with two matches to play. The first of those will come on Wednesday when Carreno Busta takes on Dominic Thiem in the match between the two players who have a loss from the opening round robin of matches in this Group.
On Tuesday we move back to the first Group as the second round of matches gets underway. We could have the first Semi Finalist decided by the end of Tuesday and also the first player eliminated from the tournament if the results go that way.
That makes it a big day of tennis at the O2 Arena with everything to play for.
Marin Cilic - 1.5 games v Jack Sock: I am not surprised that the layers are finding it quite tough to separate Marin Cilic and Jack Sock in this match which is the second one both players play at the World Tour Finals. The losses they suffered on Sunday means there is work to do to make it through to the Semi Final and the losing player will be all but out before the second match gets underway.
I am not entirely convinced that the court in London suits Jack Sock and he really struggled with his return against Roger Federer in his straight sets loss a couple of days ago. On the other hand Marin Cilic might feel he should have beaten Alexander Zverev before giving the match away in the third set and so the Croatian is perhaps the right favourite going into this match.
However you can't dismiss the fact that Sock is 2-0 in the head to head against Marin Cilic with both wins coming on the hard courts. They haven't played one another for fifteen months, but it is a mental edge and I do think that played a part in Cilic's loss to Zverev who he had been trailing 1-3 in the head to head before the defeat on Sunday.
That may come into play in this one and I think that is a factor as to why the layers think there is little between these players. I do believe that Sock is playing with the freedom that comes with a surprise appearance in the World Tour Finals, but he is going to have to return a lot better than he did against Roger Federer when facing a big serve like the one Cilic possesses.
Cilic's return game was working slightly better than Zverev's in his own loss, and the Croatian may be seen as a little unfortunate as he had looked the stronger player going into the final set. There are times when Cilic seems to throw in too many errors in succession which can make it hard to trust him against some of the other elite players on the Tour, but I am leaning towards him winning this match and covering the number in the process.
The serve should be able to exert enough pressure on Sock to see the American just make a few more mistakes on his own serve to make the difference in this one. Cilic losing their two previous matches is a concern, but I think he can give himself a chance of reaching the Semi Final with a tight win over Sock here.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: Both Roger Federer and Alexander Zverev won their opening matches at the ATP World Tour Finals and the winner of this one will almost certainly earn their spot in the Semi Final. Out of the two players it was Federer who looked more comfortable in the opening matches on Sunday, but this is a new day and Zverev has to feel more confident with a win under his belt.
Much of this match is going to come down to how effective the Zverev aggression is to put Federer in a tough position. The young German looks the most likely player to break through the domination of the 'big four' players that have been leading the way in men's tennis over the last fifteen years and he has plenty of big wins behind him to suggest he will be anything but overawed.
Zverev has a very big game which will likely see him as one of the leading contenders to win some of the big events to come in 2018. His serve is one that can set up plenty of easy points, while the overall game sees Zverev really pick the moments to use his aggressive groundstrokes off both wings to good effect.
He will need to bring all of that onto the court if he is going to upset Federer again having gone 2-2 against him on the Tour and having beaten him in straight sets in the Final of the Canadian Masters back in August. However it has to be said that Federer was not at full health for that Final and the situation may be reversed on Tuesday after Zverev has looked a little out of sorts at the end of what has been a long season.
If it wasn't for Marin Cilic perhaps losing some focus, it may have been the Croatian and not Zverev who won that match and Zverev has to know he has to improve his level if he is going to beat Federer. While there are some doubts about how much Zverev has in the tank, the same can't be said for Federer who looked comfortable in his win over Jack Sock and who has been in fine form to end a remarkable 2017 season.
Federer was serving very well against Sock, but the feeling is that Zverev will offer more of a threat on the return. That may just keep Federer very focused in this one and I think he can find a way to get the better of his younger opponent on a court that favours Federer more than any other player in this draw as far as I am concerned.
I will be looking for Federer to earn a revenge for his Canadian Masters Final loss and I think he can do that with a 7-5, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 2-2, - 0.30 Units (8 Units Staked, - 3.75% Yield)
It wouldn't be a surprise to anyone that Nadal decided to pull out of the ATP World Tour Finals immediately after the defeat, but the Spaniard admitted he was going to do that whether he had won or lost. He has time to get ready for the Australian Open, but there is no need to risk the knees which have cost Nadal plenty of playing time throughout his career already.
2017 has been a memorable year for Nadal as he returned to the top of the World Rankings and added two more Grand Slam titles to his collection. I do hope rest is all that is needed to get back to full health and be ready for the 2018 season because seeing Nadal at his best is still something amazing to view and tennis is better for the Spaniard being at his best.
Nadal's decision means alternate Pablo Carreno Busta will enter the ATP World Tour Finals for the first time and he still has a chance of earning a Semi Final spot with two matches to play. The first of those will come on Wednesday when Carreno Busta takes on Dominic Thiem in the match between the two players who have a loss from the opening round robin of matches in this Group.
On Tuesday we move back to the first Group as the second round of matches gets underway. We could have the first Semi Finalist decided by the end of Tuesday and also the first player eliminated from the tournament if the results go that way.
That makes it a big day of tennis at the O2 Arena with everything to play for.
Marin Cilic - 1.5 games v Jack Sock: I am not surprised that the layers are finding it quite tough to separate Marin Cilic and Jack Sock in this match which is the second one both players play at the World Tour Finals. The losses they suffered on Sunday means there is work to do to make it through to the Semi Final and the losing player will be all but out before the second match gets underway.
I am not entirely convinced that the court in London suits Jack Sock and he really struggled with his return against Roger Federer in his straight sets loss a couple of days ago. On the other hand Marin Cilic might feel he should have beaten Alexander Zverev before giving the match away in the third set and so the Croatian is perhaps the right favourite going into this match.
However you can't dismiss the fact that Sock is 2-0 in the head to head against Marin Cilic with both wins coming on the hard courts. They haven't played one another for fifteen months, but it is a mental edge and I do think that played a part in Cilic's loss to Zverev who he had been trailing 1-3 in the head to head before the defeat on Sunday.
That may come into play in this one and I think that is a factor as to why the layers think there is little between these players. I do believe that Sock is playing with the freedom that comes with a surprise appearance in the World Tour Finals, but he is going to have to return a lot better than he did against Roger Federer when facing a big serve like the one Cilic possesses.
Cilic's return game was working slightly better than Zverev's in his own loss, and the Croatian may be seen as a little unfortunate as he had looked the stronger player going into the final set. There are times when Cilic seems to throw in too many errors in succession which can make it hard to trust him against some of the other elite players on the Tour, but I am leaning towards him winning this match and covering the number in the process.
The serve should be able to exert enough pressure on Sock to see the American just make a few more mistakes on his own serve to make the difference in this one. Cilic losing their two previous matches is a concern, but I think he can give himself a chance of reaching the Semi Final with a tight win over Sock here.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: Both Roger Federer and Alexander Zverev won their opening matches at the ATP World Tour Finals and the winner of this one will almost certainly earn their spot in the Semi Final. Out of the two players it was Federer who looked more comfortable in the opening matches on Sunday, but this is a new day and Zverev has to feel more confident with a win under his belt.
Much of this match is going to come down to how effective the Zverev aggression is to put Federer in a tough position. The young German looks the most likely player to break through the domination of the 'big four' players that have been leading the way in men's tennis over the last fifteen years and he has plenty of big wins behind him to suggest he will be anything but overawed.
Zverev has a very big game which will likely see him as one of the leading contenders to win some of the big events to come in 2018. His serve is one that can set up plenty of easy points, while the overall game sees Zverev really pick the moments to use his aggressive groundstrokes off both wings to good effect.
He will need to bring all of that onto the court if he is going to upset Federer again having gone 2-2 against him on the Tour and having beaten him in straight sets in the Final of the Canadian Masters back in August. However it has to be said that Federer was not at full health for that Final and the situation may be reversed on Tuesday after Zverev has looked a little out of sorts at the end of what has been a long season.
If it wasn't for Marin Cilic perhaps losing some focus, it may have been the Croatian and not Zverev who won that match and Zverev has to know he has to improve his level if he is going to beat Federer. While there are some doubts about how much Zverev has in the tank, the same can't be said for Federer who looked comfortable in his win over Jack Sock and who has been in fine form to end a remarkable 2017 season.
Federer was serving very well against Sock, but the feeling is that Zverev will offer more of a threat on the return. That may just keep Federer very focused in this one and I think he can find a way to get the better of his younger opponent on a court that favours Federer more than any other player in this draw as far as I am concerned.
I will be looking for Federer to earn a revenge for his Canadian Masters Final loss and I think he can do that with a 7-5, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 2-2, - 0.30 Units (8 Units Staked, - 3.75% Yield)
Monday, 13 November 2017
ATP World Tour Finals Day 2 Picks 2017 (November 13th)
The ATP World Tour Finals got underway on Sunday and it was Roger Federer and Alexander Zverev who got off to winning starts to set up a match between the two on Tuesday.
That means Jack Sock and Marin Cilic will also play in a match where the losing player is almost certainly going to be exiting the tournament in the Group Stage.
On Monday we move onto Day 2 at the O2 Arena with all eyes on the evening match between Rafael Nadal and David Goffin to see if the World Number 1 is going to be ready to play. All the suggestions are that Nadal will play, but that he is far from 100% and would not have taken part if this was not the final tournament of the season.
It is not one that I would expect Nadal to be favoured to win if at full health, so it is a surprising decision to play in London if he is not feeling like he can compete to the best of his ability. If I was Nadal I would have decided to put an end to the 2017 season, had a two week break to really let the knee settle and then start preparing for the 2018 season which will begin in under two months time.
However Nadal clearly feels a responsibility to be at the World Tour Finals as the World Number 1 and it will be interesting how long he can give his best.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Dominic Thiem: With the doubts surrounding Rafael Nadal going into the ATP World Tour Finals, the likes of Grigor Dimitrov and Dominic Thiem have to feel there is a real opening to get into the Semi Final. The winner will certainly feel they have taken a step towards that in the section where there are some question marks about three of the four players in the Group.
The one that may be coming into this one with clear thought of mind has to be Grigor Dimitrov who has already stated 2017 has gone as he would have hoped. I still think there was room for better from the Bulgarian, but his performances have improved from eighteen months ago when it looked like Dimitrov's career was floundering.
Now he is back amongst the elite on the ATP Tour and Dimitrov has piled up the wins since the US Open which will give him confidence. Dimitrov recently reached the Final in Stockholm and he has won plenty of tennis matches since his surprise loss at the US Open and I can understand why he comes into this one as the favourite.
While Dimitrov has been playing well, Dominic Thiem is just 2-5 since the US Open when he blew a two set lead in his loss to Juan Martin Del Potro. For the second year in a row Thiem comes into a tough portion of the season with questions about how much he has left in the tank after a long and successful season.
Last year he won his first match in London before losing his last two matches and going out in the Group Stage. Even that win over Gael Monfils was against a player who had issues with his fitness which meant he could not play all three matches in the tournament and I think Thiem is going to have to answer the questions about how much he has left for London again this year.
These two players split two matches in 2017, but both were close and arguably it is Dimitrov who should have won both matches. This is likely to be a tough match as the two players deal with some nerves and they are closely matched, but I will be looking for Dimitrov to make one or two bigger plays which helps him in this one.
Dimitrov has just been a little more successful on the return recently and I will look for the Bulgarian to find a 7-6, 6-4 win in this one.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v David Goffin: A major injury at the French Open meant David Goffin missed several weeks on the Tour as well as seeing two Grand Slams being missed. That should have meant he was not going to have the points to make it back to London having played as an alternate last season, but injuries to some of the big names opened the door for the Belgian.
This time he has finished in one of the top eight positions to earn his spot in the Group Stage and Goffin will get to play all three matches this week. He has been playing plenty of tennis recently which would have sapped some of the energy, while Goffin has to remain focused in light of the Davis Cup Final which is coming up as he looks to help Belgium go a step further than they did in 2015 when losing to Great Britain.
Belgium will need Goffin at his absolute best if they are going to beat France and so the Number 1 Ranked player in their country might not be as focused here in London as he otherwise would be.
Goffin, along with everyone else, also has to be wondering how fit and healthy Rafael Nadal is coming into the tournament. He was beaten by Nadal twice on the clay courts this season but Goffin is someone who can cause problems for opponents who are not at full speed and that is going to be a challenge for Nadal.
The knee injury is always going to be a concern for the Spaniard, but he has had a couple of weeks to prepare and I am sure we will get the best from Nadal if he has decided to play. While he may be restricted and vulnerable to the likes of Grigor Dimitrov, Alexander Zverev and Roger Federer later in the tournament, but this may be a match that Nadal can enjoy with the limited power that Goffin can use to try and hit through the court.
If Nadal is ready to go, I think he will be able to earn the bulk of the break points in this one and he can do enough to win this one 6-3, 6-4. However I would not be surprised if an alternate is needed later in the Group as Nadal thinks about 2018 and the new season but that may not happen until after he has secured a win in the opening match.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 1-1, + 0 Units (4 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
That means Jack Sock and Marin Cilic will also play in a match where the losing player is almost certainly going to be exiting the tournament in the Group Stage.
On Monday we move onto Day 2 at the O2 Arena with all eyes on the evening match between Rafael Nadal and David Goffin to see if the World Number 1 is going to be ready to play. All the suggestions are that Nadal will play, but that he is far from 100% and would not have taken part if this was not the final tournament of the season.
It is not one that I would expect Nadal to be favoured to win if at full health, so it is a surprising decision to play in London if he is not feeling like he can compete to the best of his ability. If I was Nadal I would have decided to put an end to the 2017 season, had a two week break to really let the knee settle and then start preparing for the 2018 season which will begin in under two months time.
However Nadal clearly feels a responsibility to be at the World Tour Finals as the World Number 1 and it will be interesting how long he can give his best.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Dominic Thiem: With the doubts surrounding Rafael Nadal going into the ATP World Tour Finals, the likes of Grigor Dimitrov and Dominic Thiem have to feel there is a real opening to get into the Semi Final. The winner will certainly feel they have taken a step towards that in the section where there are some question marks about three of the four players in the Group.
The one that may be coming into this one with clear thought of mind has to be Grigor Dimitrov who has already stated 2017 has gone as he would have hoped. I still think there was room for better from the Bulgarian, but his performances have improved from eighteen months ago when it looked like Dimitrov's career was floundering.
Now he is back amongst the elite on the ATP Tour and Dimitrov has piled up the wins since the US Open which will give him confidence. Dimitrov recently reached the Final in Stockholm and he has won plenty of tennis matches since his surprise loss at the US Open and I can understand why he comes into this one as the favourite.
While Dimitrov has been playing well, Dominic Thiem is just 2-5 since the US Open when he blew a two set lead in his loss to Juan Martin Del Potro. For the second year in a row Thiem comes into a tough portion of the season with questions about how much he has left in the tank after a long and successful season.
Last year he won his first match in London before losing his last two matches and going out in the Group Stage. Even that win over Gael Monfils was against a player who had issues with his fitness which meant he could not play all three matches in the tournament and I think Thiem is going to have to answer the questions about how much he has left for London again this year.
These two players split two matches in 2017, but both were close and arguably it is Dimitrov who should have won both matches. This is likely to be a tough match as the two players deal with some nerves and they are closely matched, but I will be looking for Dimitrov to make one or two bigger plays which helps him in this one.
Dimitrov has just been a little more successful on the return recently and I will look for the Bulgarian to find a 7-6, 6-4 win in this one.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v David Goffin: A major injury at the French Open meant David Goffin missed several weeks on the Tour as well as seeing two Grand Slams being missed. That should have meant he was not going to have the points to make it back to London having played as an alternate last season, but injuries to some of the big names opened the door for the Belgian.
This time he has finished in one of the top eight positions to earn his spot in the Group Stage and Goffin will get to play all three matches this week. He has been playing plenty of tennis recently which would have sapped some of the energy, while Goffin has to remain focused in light of the Davis Cup Final which is coming up as he looks to help Belgium go a step further than they did in 2015 when losing to Great Britain.
Belgium will need Goffin at his absolute best if they are going to beat France and so the Number 1 Ranked player in their country might not be as focused here in London as he otherwise would be.
Goffin, along with everyone else, also has to be wondering how fit and healthy Rafael Nadal is coming into the tournament. He was beaten by Nadal twice on the clay courts this season but Goffin is someone who can cause problems for opponents who are not at full speed and that is going to be a challenge for Nadal.
The knee injury is always going to be a concern for the Spaniard, but he has had a couple of weeks to prepare and I am sure we will get the best from Nadal if he has decided to play. While he may be restricted and vulnerable to the likes of Grigor Dimitrov, Alexander Zverev and Roger Federer later in the tournament, but this may be a match that Nadal can enjoy with the limited power that Goffin can use to try and hit through the court.
If Nadal is ready to go, I think he will be able to earn the bulk of the break points in this one and he can do enough to win this one 6-3, 6-4. However I would not be surprised if an alternate is needed later in the Group as Nadal thinks about 2018 and the new season but that may not happen until after he has secured a win in the opening match.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 1-1, + 0 Units (4 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Saturday, 11 November 2017
ATP World Tour Finals Day 1 Pick 2017 (November 12th)
A long tennis season is coming to a close over the next couple of weeks with the ATP World Tour Finals, Fed Cup Final and Davis Cup Final all that is remaining. My own tennis season took a break at the conclusion of the US Open until these Tour Finals in what was a pretty disappointing year in terms of the picks that were made.
Looking back over the year I could see a couple of really terrible months which had a big impact on the season results and I will have to sit down and analyse what to change in the 2018 season to get back to winning ways in a sport that I have been pretty good in previously. That's the only way to make sure an improvement is made after a rough season.
This past week we saw the Next Gen ATP Finals which saw a change in scoring with sets limited to the first to four games and with a few other rule changes like no let cords on the serve as well as one point at deuce to decide the game.
Some of the players were not convinced with how things were working and I have to say I do think the shorter sets makes it tougher for the swings and roundabouts which makes tennis such a fun sport to watch match to match. However it is absolutely correct for the tennis authorities to try and find a way to make the sport more appealing although I am not convinced with the way the Next Gen Finals are being played.
The ATP World Tour Finals has a slightly less familiar look in 2017 than previous years with the likes of Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka all missing this year. Even Rafael Nadal looks like he is not at full health which has left Roger Federer as the clear favourite to put an exclamation mark on what has been a tremendous 2017 for him.
Nadal is likely to play this week but not being at 100% means he will have to accept finishing the year with two Grand Slam titles as well as finishing the year as the World Number 1.
It may also open the door for the likes of Alexander Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov and Dominic Thiem to make their first big impact at the Tour Finals. Marin Cilic, Jack Sock and David Goffin make up the numbers at the O2 Arena this week with the tennis being played over an eight day stretch to conclude the ATP Tour for the 2017 season.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Jack Sock: The opening Singles match at the ATP World Tour Finals is played between Roger Federer and Jack Sock with the latter making his way into the tournament with a Masters win in Paris last week.
The American himself has admitted that he didn't think it was possible to finish in the ATP World Tour Final places and that he had begun to think of the break from tennis when trailing Kyle Edmund in the French capital. Being down two breaks of serve saw Sock decide to hit out and see what happens, but he found a hot streak and rode that all the way to the first Masters title of his career.
It was a big effort made by Sock and the change in the schedule which puts a week between the Paris Masters and World Tour Finals will have helped him in his recovery. He can be a dangerous player with nothing to lose in London this week, but I am not sure the conditions will be to Sock's absolute liking.
Sock is a decent indoor hard court player, but raising his game against the elite on the Tour has been a struggle for him in recent years. The American did snap a seven game career losing run to top 5 players when beating Kei Nishikori in Indian Wells back in March, while Sock is also 2-3 against top 10 players this season.
His numbers do take a hit when playing the best players as the limited backhand becomes exposed, although Sock can be dangerous if serving well and getting his forehand into play as quickly as he would like. He will need to be at his very best against Roger Federer who won the title in Basel a couple of weeks ago before deciding to rest instead of playing at the Paris Masters with the World Number 1 Ranking beyond him at that point.
Federer is well rested now and he remains one of the best indoor hard court players in the world, while the confidence would have been restored after a surprising Quarter Final loss at the US Open. Since then Federer has won back to back titles in Shanghai and Basel and the Swiss superstar has been in tremendous form on the hard courts throughout the 2017 season.
He is 5-0 on the indoor hard courts and Federer is 37-3 on the hard courts in general, while going 9-1 against top 10 players in that time. His own numbers have looked stronger than Sock's across the board with a superior serve and better returning suggesting Federer will prove to be too good for his opponent in this one.
Federer also holds a 3-0 head to head record against Sock which includes a win over him at Indian Wells earlier this year. He has won all of those matches while covering this number of games and I think he should be a little too good for his opponent on Sunday.
This feels like a match that has all the makings of a 6-3, 6-4 kind of win for Federer and I will look for him to cover the games.
Alexander Zverev v Marin Cilic: Most people will be expecting Roger Federer to come out of this Group to make the Semi Final, but trying to decide who will finish behind the Swiss player is more of a challenge. The general feeling I have is that this match is going to be a big deciding factor as to who moves through with Federer with the winner between Marin Cilic and Alexander Zverev the player who would be in the best position to get to the Semi Final.
There are a few question marks about Zverev and whether he is perhaps feeling all of the tennis he has played in 2017 in what was a breakthrough year for the young German. The lack of experience of playing at this time of the year has go against Zverev, while he has reached just one Semi Final in his last seven tournaments since winning the title at the Canadian Masters.
Out of the two players it does feel like Marin Cilic is coming in with a lot more momentum with three Semi Final appearances and a Quarter Final in the four tournaments since the US Open. Winning all of those matches will give Cilic plenty of confidence to take into London, although actually listing the players the Croatian has beaten does highlight that he has perhaps not had to travel through the most daunting of paths.
The numbers are leaning towards Cilic over the last couple of months, but this has all the makings of a very close contest. One factor that may give Zverev the edge is the head to head with Cilic which he leads 3-1 including having won the last three in a row with all of those coming in the last two seasons.
Zverev has also produced some of his best tennis when facing the best players on the Tour over the last twelve months. In that time he is 6-2 against opponents in the top 10 when playing them on the hard courts and the return numbers have really improved which makes Zverev a threat in this tournament if he has enough gas left in the tank.
On the other hand Cilic has not found it as easy to compete with the top 10 players he has met in 2017. He is 0-2 on the hard courts in that situation and 2-4 in 2017 in all surfaces against the top 10, while Cilic's numbers on the return have been disappointing in that time.
His poor record against Zverev has to play a part and I think backing the younger player as the narrow underdog looks to be worth a shot here.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Looking back over the year I could see a couple of really terrible months which had a big impact on the season results and I will have to sit down and analyse what to change in the 2018 season to get back to winning ways in a sport that I have been pretty good in previously. That's the only way to make sure an improvement is made after a rough season.
This past week we saw the Next Gen ATP Finals which saw a change in scoring with sets limited to the first to four games and with a few other rule changes like no let cords on the serve as well as one point at deuce to decide the game.
Some of the players were not convinced with how things were working and I have to say I do think the shorter sets makes it tougher for the swings and roundabouts which makes tennis such a fun sport to watch match to match. However it is absolutely correct for the tennis authorities to try and find a way to make the sport more appealing although I am not convinced with the way the Next Gen Finals are being played.
The ATP World Tour Finals has a slightly less familiar look in 2017 than previous years with the likes of Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka all missing this year. Even Rafael Nadal looks like he is not at full health which has left Roger Federer as the clear favourite to put an exclamation mark on what has been a tremendous 2017 for him.
Nadal is likely to play this week but not being at 100% means he will have to accept finishing the year with two Grand Slam titles as well as finishing the year as the World Number 1.
It may also open the door for the likes of Alexander Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov and Dominic Thiem to make their first big impact at the Tour Finals. Marin Cilic, Jack Sock and David Goffin make up the numbers at the O2 Arena this week with the tennis being played over an eight day stretch to conclude the ATP Tour for the 2017 season.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Jack Sock: The opening Singles match at the ATP World Tour Finals is played between Roger Federer and Jack Sock with the latter making his way into the tournament with a Masters win in Paris last week.
The American himself has admitted that he didn't think it was possible to finish in the ATP World Tour Final places and that he had begun to think of the break from tennis when trailing Kyle Edmund in the French capital. Being down two breaks of serve saw Sock decide to hit out and see what happens, but he found a hot streak and rode that all the way to the first Masters title of his career.
It was a big effort made by Sock and the change in the schedule which puts a week between the Paris Masters and World Tour Finals will have helped him in his recovery. He can be a dangerous player with nothing to lose in London this week, but I am not sure the conditions will be to Sock's absolute liking.
Sock is a decent indoor hard court player, but raising his game against the elite on the Tour has been a struggle for him in recent years. The American did snap a seven game career losing run to top 5 players when beating Kei Nishikori in Indian Wells back in March, while Sock is also 2-3 against top 10 players this season.
His numbers do take a hit when playing the best players as the limited backhand becomes exposed, although Sock can be dangerous if serving well and getting his forehand into play as quickly as he would like. He will need to be at his very best against Roger Federer who won the title in Basel a couple of weeks ago before deciding to rest instead of playing at the Paris Masters with the World Number 1 Ranking beyond him at that point.
Federer is well rested now and he remains one of the best indoor hard court players in the world, while the confidence would have been restored after a surprising Quarter Final loss at the US Open. Since then Federer has won back to back titles in Shanghai and Basel and the Swiss superstar has been in tremendous form on the hard courts throughout the 2017 season.
He is 5-0 on the indoor hard courts and Federer is 37-3 on the hard courts in general, while going 9-1 against top 10 players in that time. His own numbers have looked stronger than Sock's across the board with a superior serve and better returning suggesting Federer will prove to be too good for his opponent in this one.
Federer also holds a 3-0 head to head record against Sock which includes a win over him at Indian Wells earlier this year. He has won all of those matches while covering this number of games and I think he should be a little too good for his opponent on Sunday.
This feels like a match that has all the makings of a 6-3, 6-4 kind of win for Federer and I will look for him to cover the games.
Alexander Zverev v Marin Cilic: Most people will be expecting Roger Federer to come out of this Group to make the Semi Final, but trying to decide who will finish behind the Swiss player is more of a challenge. The general feeling I have is that this match is going to be a big deciding factor as to who moves through with Federer with the winner between Marin Cilic and Alexander Zverev the player who would be in the best position to get to the Semi Final.
There are a few question marks about Zverev and whether he is perhaps feeling all of the tennis he has played in 2017 in what was a breakthrough year for the young German. The lack of experience of playing at this time of the year has go against Zverev, while he has reached just one Semi Final in his last seven tournaments since winning the title at the Canadian Masters.
Out of the two players it does feel like Marin Cilic is coming in with a lot more momentum with three Semi Final appearances and a Quarter Final in the four tournaments since the US Open. Winning all of those matches will give Cilic plenty of confidence to take into London, although actually listing the players the Croatian has beaten does highlight that he has perhaps not had to travel through the most daunting of paths.
The numbers are leaning towards Cilic over the last couple of months, but this has all the makings of a very close contest. One factor that may give Zverev the edge is the head to head with Cilic which he leads 3-1 including having won the last three in a row with all of those coming in the last two seasons.
Zverev has also produced some of his best tennis when facing the best players on the Tour over the last twelve months. In that time he is 6-2 against opponents in the top 10 when playing them on the hard courts and the return numbers have really improved which makes Zverev a threat in this tournament if he has enough gas left in the tank.
On the other hand Cilic has not found it as easy to compete with the top 10 players he has met in 2017. He is 0-2 on the hard courts in that situation and 2-4 in 2017 in all surfaces against the top 10, while Cilic's numbers on the return have been disappointing in that time.
His poor record against Zverev has to play a part and I think backing the younger player as the narrow underdog looks to be worth a shot here.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Friday, 20 November 2015
ATP World Tour Finals Day 6 Picks 2015 (November 20th)
Group A has proved to be a very frustrating one for me to be honest as a couple of lacklustre performances from the top players helped the underdogs come through on Thursday.
Frustrating, but the week is still in decent shape and I hope that is the worst day left of this tournament with Group B concluding on Friday.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v David Ferrer: Watching Rafael Nadal over the last couple of months of the season has been like watching him at something like his best. He isn't quite up to the level that saw him win numerous Grand Slam titles and reach World Number 1, but the length in the groundstrokes is getting much better and there is no doubting that the confidence is returning.
Nadal is quite an open book with the media and while he was criticised earlier in the year for admitting his confidence isn't where it should be, he has been a lot more positive more recently. Other players have also noticed with Roger Federer telling the press that he is expecting big things from Nadal in 2016 and I am with the 17 time Grand Slam Champion on that.
The Spaniard has already won this Group and now faces compatriot David Ferrer who knows this is his last match of the year. With a match against Novak Djokovic to come on Saturday, I do wonder if we will see a full effort from Nadal in this one, although the competitor in him is unlikely to 'tank'.
Matches between the pair have been gruelling affairs in the past and that will be a worry for Nadal with that match against Djokovic twenty-four hours later in mind. However, I think it will focus him to get this job done and keep the confidence rolling and I think Nadal understands the importance of keeping the wins coming.
One element that has changed recently is that Nadal has been more likely to pick to serve first in his matches and that is a key here. If he gets to serve first, I really do think he wins this one 63, 64, but even if Nadal serves second I do think he will have too much for Ferrer on the form both have shown this week.
Stan Wawrinka + 2.5 games v Andy Murray: The Davis Cup Final was casting a big shadow over Andy Murray's preparations for the World Tour Finals and I think that tournament might be at the forefront of his thoughts on Friday too. While Murray can still qualify for the Semi Final, he suffered what looked a slight niggle against Rafael Nadal at the end of that match on Wednesday and I do wonder if that plays on his mind on Friday.
The fact is that Murray is also going against Stan Wawrinka, a dangerous player who had a very good win over David Ferrer to preserve his chances of qualifying for the Semi Final too. That win was impressive as Wawrinka came from a break down to take the first set and then dominated, but he has to focus from the beginning of this match.
Wawrinka has had the better of his last couple of matches against Andy Murray but this is the first time they have met in over two years which is quite remarkable considering they have been top ten players in that time.
My feeling is that this tournament means a lot more to Wawrinka than it does to Murray and that niggle he felt against Nadal is likely to be in the back of his mind. Murray knows how big the Davis Cup Final is as a tournament he probably never really expected to have a chance of winning and it is easy to think that the focus is on next week considering Murray even talked about pulling out of this one a couple of months ago.
On the other hand, Wawrinka made it clear after the loss to Nadal that this tournament does mean a lot to him and I wouldn't be surprised if the Swiss Number 2 won this match outright. A rematch of the controversial Semi Final against Roger Federer from last season would make great viewing, but I will take the safety of the games from this one.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 6-4, + 2.88 Units (20 Units Staked, + 14.4% Yield)
Frustrating, but the week is still in decent shape and I hope that is the worst day left of this tournament with Group B concluding on Friday.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v David Ferrer: Watching Rafael Nadal over the last couple of months of the season has been like watching him at something like his best. He isn't quite up to the level that saw him win numerous Grand Slam titles and reach World Number 1, but the length in the groundstrokes is getting much better and there is no doubting that the confidence is returning.
Nadal is quite an open book with the media and while he was criticised earlier in the year for admitting his confidence isn't where it should be, he has been a lot more positive more recently. Other players have also noticed with Roger Federer telling the press that he is expecting big things from Nadal in 2016 and I am with the 17 time Grand Slam Champion on that.
The Spaniard has already won this Group and now faces compatriot David Ferrer who knows this is his last match of the year. With a match against Novak Djokovic to come on Saturday, I do wonder if we will see a full effort from Nadal in this one, although the competitor in him is unlikely to 'tank'.
Matches between the pair have been gruelling affairs in the past and that will be a worry for Nadal with that match against Djokovic twenty-four hours later in mind. However, I think it will focus him to get this job done and keep the confidence rolling and I think Nadal understands the importance of keeping the wins coming.
One element that has changed recently is that Nadal has been more likely to pick to serve first in his matches and that is a key here. If he gets to serve first, I really do think he wins this one 63, 64, but even if Nadal serves second I do think he will have too much for Ferrer on the form both have shown this week.
Stan Wawrinka + 2.5 games v Andy Murray: The Davis Cup Final was casting a big shadow over Andy Murray's preparations for the World Tour Finals and I think that tournament might be at the forefront of his thoughts on Friday too. While Murray can still qualify for the Semi Final, he suffered what looked a slight niggle against Rafael Nadal at the end of that match on Wednesday and I do wonder if that plays on his mind on Friday.
The fact is that Murray is also going against Stan Wawrinka, a dangerous player who had a very good win over David Ferrer to preserve his chances of qualifying for the Semi Final too. That win was impressive as Wawrinka came from a break down to take the first set and then dominated, but he has to focus from the beginning of this match.
Wawrinka has had the better of his last couple of matches against Andy Murray but this is the first time they have met in over two years which is quite remarkable considering they have been top ten players in that time.
My feeling is that this tournament means a lot more to Wawrinka than it does to Murray and that niggle he felt against Nadal is likely to be in the back of his mind. Murray knows how big the Davis Cup Final is as a tournament he probably never really expected to have a chance of winning and it is easy to think that the focus is on next week considering Murray even talked about pulling out of this one a couple of months ago.
On the other hand, Wawrinka made it clear after the loss to Nadal that this tournament does mean a lot to him and I wouldn't be surprised if the Swiss Number 2 won this match outright. A rematch of the controversial Semi Final against Roger Federer from last season would make great viewing, but I will take the safety of the games from this one.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 6-4, + 2.88 Units (20 Units Staked, + 14.4% Yield)
Thursday, 19 November 2015
ATP World Tour Finals Day 5 Picks 2015 (November 19th)
The ATP World Tour Finals continue on Thursday and we will know the first two Semi Finalists and where they have finished in the Group. Of course Roger Federer has moved through to the final four once again in London after a surprising win over Novak Djokovic, but all three other players in the Group are still alive.
It is Roger Federer versus Kei Nishikori up first before Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych take over the night session.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Kei Nishikori: After a convincing couple of wins over Tomas Berdych and Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer will feel very confident he can complete the sweep in the Group. That would allow him to finish as winner of the Group and mean he will play either Andy Murray or Stan Wawrinka in the Semi Final on Saturday.
It isn't a meaningless match for Kei Nishikori either having bounced back from his defeat to Novak Djokovic to beat Tomas Berdych in three sets. That performance against Berdych would have given Nishikori some confidence, but the Japanese player has struggled the last couple of times he has played Roger Federer including a fairly comprehensive defeat to him in the Group Stage of the World Tour Finals at the end of 2014.
Federer has looked very focused in his two matches and barring the opening sloppy service game against Tomas Berdych, he has rarely been troubled on serve with only one other break of serve given up. That confidence should give him a clear edge against Nishikori who is still struggling a little with a shoulder issue and who has given up quite a lot of energy to see off Berdych two days ago.
As long as Federer can serve well, he will have the edge over Nishikori who is likely going to give up opportunities to break his serve. I think the latter is more competitive than in his defeat to Djokovic, but I do think Federer is playing too well for him at the moment and is able to come through 75, 63.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Depending on what happens in the first match, Tomas Berdych might still have a chance of progressing through to the Semi Final with a win over Novak Djokovic. Any kind of win for Roger Federer earlier in the day would mean a 2-0 win for Tomas Berdych is enough to get through to the Semi Final, but beating Djokovic in straight sets is far from an easy task.
Novak Djokovic was a little dismissive of the loss in the Group to Roger Federer and felt he 'handed it to (Federer)' in the second set, comments that didn't go down too well with Federer. The World Number 1 admitted he had an off day and that could be a big problem for Tomas Berdych who has been dominated by Djokovic in the past.
This is potentially the last match of the 2015 season for Tomas Berdych so you have to think he will put in a big effort to try and extend his season. However, Berdych will be out if he drops a set in this one regardless of a Federer win and I think that might be a reason he perhaps drops his form in this match.
He is also playing Djokovic who is going to have a lot to prove back on the court after a disappointing loss to Federer. The World Number 1 has been in dominant form prior to that loss although Berdych is one player who got to two tie-breakers against him and was certainly close to an upset at the Paris Masters.
However those courts play faster than the ones in London and Djokovic has protected his serve very well against Berdych in their last couple of matches here. Last season Djokovic crushed Berdych for the loss of just four games and he has won over 40% of points against the Berdych serve while giving up less than 30% on his own serve in the last two matches against him on these courts.
After taking a tight first set, Djokovic may be able to run away with this match as Berdych begins to think about his off-season with his own chances to qualify for the Semi Finals gone. I like Djokovic to win this one 64, 62.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 6-2, + 6.88 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)
It is Roger Federer versus Kei Nishikori up first before Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych take over the night session.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Kei Nishikori: After a convincing couple of wins over Tomas Berdych and Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer will feel very confident he can complete the sweep in the Group. That would allow him to finish as winner of the Group and mean he will play either Andy Murray or Stan Wawrinka in the Semi Final on Saturday.
It isn't a meaningless match for Kei Nishikori either having bounced back from his defeat to Novak Djokovic to beat Tomas Berdych in three sets. That performance against Berdych would have given Nishikori some confidence, but the Japanese player has struggled the last couple of times he has played Roger Federer including a fairly comprehensive defeat to him in the Group Stage of the World Tour Finals at the end of 2014.
Federer has looked very focused in his two matches and barring the opening sloppy service game against Tomas Berdych, he has rarely been troubled on serve with only one other break of serve given up. That confidence should give him a clear edge against Nishikori who is still struggling a little with a shoulder issue and who has given up quite a lot of energy to see off Berdych two days ago.
As long as Federer can serve well, he will have the edge over Nishikori who is likely going to give up opportunities to break his serve. I think the latter is more competitive than in his defeat to Djokovic, but I do think Federer is playing too well for him at the moment and is able to come through 75, 63.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Depending on what happens in the first match, Tomas Berdych might still have a chance of progressing through to the Semi Final with a win over Novak Djokovic. Any kind of win for Roger Federer earlier in the day would mean a 2-0 win for Tomas Berdych is enough to get through to the Semi Final, but beating Djokovic in straight sets is far from an easy task.
Novak Djokovic was a little dismissive of the loss in the Group to Roger Federer and felt he 'handed it to (Federer)' in the second set, comments that didn't go down too well with Federer. The World Number 1 admitted he had an off day and that could be a big problem for Tomas Berdych who has been dominated by Djokovic in the past.
This is potentially the last match of the 2015 season for Tomas Berdych so you have to think he will put in a big effort to try and extend his season. However, Berdych will be out if he drops a set in this one regardless of a Federer win and I think that might be a reason he perhaps drops his form in this match.
He is also playing Djokovic who is going to have a lot to prove back on the court after a disappointing loss to Federer. The World Number 1 has been in dominant form prior to that loss although Berdych is one player who got to two tie-breakers against him and was certainly close to an upset at the Paris Masters.
However those courts play faster than the ones in London and Djokovic has protected his serve very well against Berdych in their last couple of matches here. Last season Djokovic crushed Berdych for the loss of just four games and he has won over 40% of points against the Berdych serve while giving up less than 30% on his own serve in the last two matches against him on these courts.
After taking a tight first set, Djokovic may be able to run away with this match as Berdych begins to think about his off-season with his own chances to qualify for the Semi Finals gone. I like Djokovic to win this one 64, 62.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 6-2, + 6.88 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)
Wednesday, 18 November 2015
ATP World Tour Finals Day 4 Picks 2015 (November 18th)
It was a bit of frustrating time on Tuesday as both picks missed a big opportunity to win and cover- Tomas Berdych admitted his missed break point at 3-3 in the deciding set when he dominated the point was the key one in the entire match.
Novak Djokovic had an early opportunity against Roger Federer, but I was impressed with the way the latter played in his win and he will take plenty of confidence into the rest of the week as he looks to win the Tour Finals and perhaps steal the World Number 2 Ranking from Andy Murray.
On Wednesday Group B is back in action and opens up with Rafael Nadal taking on Andy Murray before Stan Wawrinka takes on David Ferrer in the evening session.
Rafael Nadal + 2.5 games v Andy Murray: The last time these players met Andy Murray destroyed Rafael Nadal on the clay courts of Madrid in what had to be arguably his best performance of the season. Now the Spaniard has a chance for revenge by beating Murray in front of his own fans and this is a match that will likely decide which of the players is going to top the Group.
Both players put together a solid win in their opening matches, but I have to say Nadal's win over Stan Wawrinka was perhaps the better of the two on Monday.
It was the kind of win that shows how improved Nadal's confidence has been in the last couple of months since the US Open. He has still not quite got the consistency in his length off the ground, but Nadal has been returning well and he can certainly give Andy Murray plenty to think about in this match.
Of course Andy Murray has been in fine form too and came into this Group as the favourite to win it. However, Nadal is playing much better than he was back when beaten in Madrid and he has a very strong record against Murray in the head to head with his additional aggression breaking down the British Number 1.
Only one of the six matches played have gone three sets this week so far, but this has every chance of being another and I think the games have to be taken. That is especially the case when I think Nadal could win this one outright although Andy Murray is playing at a good enough level to deservedly feel the favourite.
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v David Ferrer: The loser of this match is very likely to be going home before the Semi Final and both players need to get a bad performance out of their system. David Ferrer didn't play that badly, but was clearly the inferior player against Andy Murray, while Stan Wawrinka looked out of sorts both in terms of his play and his focus in a very one-sided loss to Rafael Nadal.
The fact is that Wawrinka earned the first break of the match against Nadal, but his lack of effort in the final set was a big concern. There wasn't anything he was suffering from physically in that match, but Wawrinka did recognise his poor effort in the second set and I really expect him to bounce back in this one.
He has beaten David Ferrer three times in a row, although they haven't played this season, and one of those wins came here in London in the Tour Finals two years ago. You know what we are going to see from Ferrer who will work hard and try to frustrate Wawrinka and extract the same amount of unforced errors that Nadal got from him on Monday.
The problem is I don't think Wawrinka will play as poorly as that after what he said in his press conference after the loss to Nadal. Wawrinka clearly understands what he was doing wrong and beating Ferrer three straight times means he should have confidence he can win this match.
Ferrer will make life difficult as he does, but I like Wawrinka to come through in two sets and cover this number.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 4-2, + 3.06 Units (12 Units Staked, + 25.5% Yield)
Novak Djokovic had an early opportunity against Roger Federer, but I was impressed with the way the latter played in his win and he will take plenty of confidence into the rest of the week as he looks to win the Tour Finals and perhaps steal the World Number 2 Ranking from Andy Murray.
On Wednesday Group B is back in action and opens up with Rafael Nadal taking on Andy Murray before Stan Wawrinka takes on David Ferrer in the evening session.
Rafael Nadal + 2.5 games v Andy Murray: The last time these players met Andy Murray destroyed Rafael Nadal on the clay courts of Madrid in what had to be arguably his best performance of the season. Now the Spaniard has a chance for revenge by beating Murray in front of his own fans and this is a match that will likely decide which of the players is going to top the Group.
Both players put together a solid win in their opening matches, but I have to say Nadal's win over Stan Wawrinka was perhaps the better of the two on Monday.
It was the kind of win that shows how improved Nadal's confidence has been in the last couple of months since the US Open. He has still not quite got the consistency in his length off the ground, but Nadal has been returning well and he can certainly give Andy Murray plenty to think about in this match.
Of course Andy Murray has been in fine form too and came into this Group as the favourite to win it. However, Nadal is playing much better than he was back when beaten in Madrid and he has a very strong record against Murray in the head to head with his additional aggression breaking down the British Number 1.
Only one of the six matches played have gone three sets this week so far, but this has every chance of being another and I think the games have to be taken. That is especially the case when I think Nadal could win this one outright although Andy Murray is playing at a good enough level to deservedly feel the favourite.
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v David Ferrer: The loser of this match is very likely to be going home before the Semi Final and both players need to get a bad performance out of their system. David Ferrer didn't play that badly, but was clearly the inferior player against Andy Murray, while Stan Wawrinka looked out of sorts both in terms of his play and his focus in a very one-sided loss to Rafael Nadal.
The fact is that Wawrinka earned the first break of the match against Nadal, but his lack of effort in the final set was a big concern. There wasn't anything he was suffering from physically in that match, but Wawrinka did recognise his poor effort in the second set and I really expect him to bounce back in this one.
He has beaten David Ferrer three times in a row, although they haven't played this season, and one of those wins came here in London in the Tour Finals two years ago. You know what we are going to see from Ferrer who will work hard and try to frustrate Wawrinka and extract the same amount of unforced errors that Nadal got from him on Monday.
The problem is I don't think Wawrinka will play as poorly as that after what he said in his press conference after the loss to Nadal. Wawrinka clearly understands what he was doing wrong and beating Ferrer three straight times means he should have confidence he can win this match.
Ferrer will make life difficult as he does, but I like Wawrinka to come through in two sets and cover this number.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 4-2, + 3.06 Units (12 Units Staked, + 25.5% Yield)
Tuesday, 17 November 2015
ATP World Tour Finals Day 3 Picks 2015 (November 17th)
It has been a very positive start to this tournament for the favourites as all four have won the Singles rubbers played and all while covering the handicap that has been set out for them.
On Tuesday we have the second round of matches from Group A as we get to see the first player that is likely eliminated from the tournament and also who is likely to end up being Group winner. The tournament schedule sees the two losing players from Sunday and the two winning players on the same day play one another and so all the attention will be on Novak Djokovic versus Roger Federer, a potential match that could be replayed later in the week in the Final.
First off Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori look to get back into the mix in a very difficult Group having both been beaten comfortably by Federer and Djokovic respectively.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Both Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori are looking for a vital win on Tuesday following opening day losses and the losing player will likely be out of the tournament by the evening. That puts pressure on both players, but I have to favour Tomas Berdych to get the better of Kei Nishikori simply because the latter is having a serious problem with his shoulder that is clearly bothering him.
That issue has perhaps taken more of the shoulder, but this is the last tournament of the season for Nishikori and I still expect him to give it his all this week in London. Unfortunately I am not sure how much Nishikori has in the tank and superior head to head with Tomas Berdych might not mean anything in this match.
If Nishikori is struggling to serve, Berdych should earn plenty of chances to break serve, but he will have to serve well himself to keep Nishikori from fighting back and winning the match. I think Berdych will be the more disappointed with his performance on Sunday than Nishikori because he had no excuses for being dismissed so easily by Federer.
It does make it difficult for Berdych to qualify knowing he faces Djokovic in his last match and the conditions perhaps don't suit the Czech player. It is more difficult to hit through opponents on this surface and someone like Nishikori can frustrate him. However, I think Nishikori might already be looking ahead to finishing off the 2015 season and I like Berdych to win this one 64, 64.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Roger Federer: It has been a long time since Novak Djokovic was beaten on an indoor hard court and he really enjoys the conditions at the O2 Arena. His recent form has been so spectacular that you would do well to ignore the handicap mark in this one despite the fact he is going up against Roger Federer who certainly has pushed Djokovic in the two Grand Slam Finals they have competed in in 2015.
However, Roger Federer hasn't been in the best form since the US Open and I think he will do well to keep this one close against Djokovic. Neither player will want to show off any surprises they can spring on the other in a Group match, but Novak Djokovic is certainly the more consistent player.
The slower conditions will make it that much more difficult for Federer to hit through Djokovic in this one and it has to be noted that recent Federer wins over the World Number 1 have come on very quick surfaces.
We have yet to see a three setter and this is a match that might be one that some believe will go all the way. Not for me though and I am of the belief that Novak Djokovic's level is going to be very hard for Federer to match through this contest and the World Number 1 will underline his position by winning this one 75, 64.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 4-0, + 7.06 Units (8 Units Staked, + 88.25% Yield)
On Tuesday we have the second round of matches from Group A as we get to see the first player that is likely eliminated from the tournament and also who is likely to end up being Group winner. The tournament schedule sees the two losing players from Sunday and the two winning players on the same day play one another and so all the attention will be on Novak Djokovic versus Roger Federer, a potential match that could be replayed later in the week in the Final.
First off Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori look to get back into the mix in a very difficult Group having both been beaten comfortably by Federer and Djokovic respectively.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Both Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori are looking for a vital win on Tuesday following opening day losses and the losing player will likely be out of the tournament by the evening. That puts pressure on both players, but I have to favour Tomas Berdych to get the better of Kei Nishikori simply because the latter is having a serious problem with his shoulder that is clearly bothering him.
That issue has perhaps taken more of the shoulder, but this is the last tournament of the season for Nishikori and I still expect him to give it his all this week in London. Unfortunately I am not sure how much Nishikori has in the tank and superior head to head with Tomas Berdych might not mean anything in this match.
If Nishikori is struggling to serve, Berdych should earn plenty of chances to break serve, but he will have to serve well himself to keep Nishikori from fighting back and winning the match. I think Berdych will be the more disappointed with his performance on Sunday than Nishikori because he had no excuses for being dismissed so easily by Federer.
It does make it difficult for Berdych to qualify knowing he faces Djokovic in his last match and the conditions perhaps don't suit the Czech player. It is more difficult to hit through opponents on this surface and someone like Nishikori can frustrate him. However, I think Nishikori might already be looking ahead to finishing off the 2015 season and I like Berdych to win this one 64, 64.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Roger Federer: It has been a long time since Novak Djokovic was beaten on an indoor hard court and he really enjoys the conditions at the O2 Arena. His recent form has been so spectacular that you would do well to ignore the handicap mark in this one despite the fact he is going up against Roger Federer who certainly has pushed Djokovic in the two Grand Slam Finals they have competed in in 2015.
However, Roger Federer hasn't been in the best form since the US Open and I think he will do well to keep this one close against Djokovic. Neither player will want to show off any surprises they can spring on the other in a Group match, but Novak Djokovic is certainly the more consistent player.
The slower conditions will make it that much more difficult for Federer to hit through Djokovic in this one and it has to be noted that recent Federer wins over the World Number 1 have come on very quick surfaces.
We have yet to see a three setter and this is a match that might be one that some believe will go all the way. Not for me though and I am of the belief that Novak Djokovic's level is going to be very hard for Federer to match through this contest and the World Number 1 will underline his position by winning this one 75, 64.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 4-0, + 7.06 Units (8 Units Staked, + 88.25% Yield)
Monday, 16 November 2015
ATP World Tour Finals Day 2 Picks 2015 (November 16th)
It was a very solid day for the picks on the opening day of the World Tour Finals as both the favourites won their matches in convincing fashion. I think that puts Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer in the driving seat in the Group ahead of their match against one another on Tuesday which will likely be a Group winner decider.
Federer will feel he has beaten the 'best of the rest' in the Group with his win over Tomas Berdych, but Novak Djokovic is in such ruthless form at the moment that I am not sure anyone is going to be able to stop him.
On current form, Djokovic is going to go into the Australian Open as a very strong favourite in the first Grand Slam of 2016. That is a Slam he has loved to play at over the years but I haven't seen anyone that looks capable of bridging the gap to him barring playing a once in a lifetime kind of match in the best of five format.
On Monday, Group B opens up the play with the British Number 1 Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal the headline makers. Stan Wawrinka and David Ferrer aren't coming to London with the mentality of making up the numbers either and I think this is the better of the two Groups in terms of competitiveness rather than having the players that are favoured to win the tournament.
Hopefully I will put together another couple of winners after the success of Sunday.
Andy Murray - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: The Davis Cup Final is looming large, but Andy Murray's run at the Paris Masters shows that he is ready to compete in the last couple of events he will be playing. A tie on the clay courts needs some adjustment and Murray has been practicing on that surface in preparation for the World Tour Finals and I do wonder if that will show up on the court, although I am expecting him to see off David Ferrer in his opening match.
These players played a competitive match at the Paris Masters that was eventually won by Andy Murray in straight sets, although David Ferrer could easily have taken the second set.
Both players know what to expect from the other on the slower surface that usually is in play at the O2 Arena and I expect a lot of grinding rallies. Neither Murray nor Ferrer can look at their serve as one that will be protected at all times, but Murray does have a slight edge with the first serve definitely the biggest of the serves in action.
The head to head now leads 11-6 in favour of Murray, but that has a lot to do withe the fact that the British player has won four in a row. He usually has enough to produce a winning set with a couple of breaks of serve which means Murray should have every chance to cover even if this match goes into a third set.
With the spread set as it is for this opening match of Group B, I think Murray will win a battling match in three sets 46, 62, 64.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: There have been some solid tournaments for Rafael Nadal since his surprising defeat at the US Open to Fabio Fognini and he will be looking to consolidate his World Number 5 Ranking. The match with Stan Wawrinka has looked the best one of the opening Group games especially after seeing how competitive their match was at the Paris Masters.
It could be the key match for both players in this Group with the losing player knowing they would likely have to win their last couple of games including against home favourite Andy Murray. That could increase the tension for both Nadal and Wawrinka and I think this could be one spectacular match to watch.
Stan Wawrinka got the better of Nadal in Paris, but the Spaniard will know he let his opponent off the hook. Nadal served for the first set an inexplicably missed a smash that would likely have seen him win the set before going down in two tie-breakers, while Wawrinka will be confident having won three of the last four in the head to head.
That includes a win on the clay courts earlier this season so Wawrinka won't mind the slower conditions in London as it allows him to set up his shots and crack winners. However, I do think Nadal has really improved his confidence in recent weeks and he did crush Wawrinka for the loss of three games in Shanghai.
Both players should have their moments in this one and Monday might prove to be a day where both matches end up going three sets compared with the straight set wins we saw on Sunday. However, it is after some tough work that I think Nadal earns a very important win on Monday and one that gives him a great chance to reach the Semi Final.
In three sets, I expect Nadal to come through 64, 67, 64.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 2-0, + 3.60 Units (4 Units Staked, + 90% Yield)
Federer will feel he has beaten the 'best of the rest' in the Group with his win over Tomas Berdych, but Novak Djokovic is in such ruthless form at the moment that I am not sure anyone is going to be able to stop him.
On current form, Djokovic is going to go into the Australian Open as a very strong favourite in the first Grand Slam of 2016. That is a Slam he has loved to play at over the years but I haven't seen anyone that looks capable of bridging the gap to him barring playing a once in a lifetime kind of match in the best of five format.
On Monday, Group B opens up the play with the British Number 1 Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal the headline makers. Stan Wawrinka and David Ferrer aren't coming to London with the mentality of making up the numbers either and I think this is the better of the two Groups in terms of competitiveness rather than having the players that are favoured to win the tournament.
Hopefully I will put together another couple of winners after the success of Sunday.
Andy Murray - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: The Davis Cup Final is looming large, but Andy Murray's run at the Paris Masters shows that he is ready to compete in the last couple of events he will be playing. A tie on the clay courts needs some adjustment and Murray has been practicing on that surface in preparation for the World Tour Finals and I do wonder if that will show up on the court, although I am expecting him to see off David Ferrer in his opening match.
These players played a competitive match at the Paris Masters that was eventually won by Andy Murray in straight sets, although David Ferrer could easily have taken the second set.
Both players know what to expect from the other on the slower surface that usually is in play at the O2 Arena and I expect a lot of grinding rallies. Neither Murray nor Ferrer can look at their serve as one that will be protected at all times, but Murray does have a slight edge with the first serve definitely the biggest of the serves in action.
The head to head now leads 11-6 in favour of Murray, but that has a lot to do withe the fact that the British player has won four in a row. He usually has enough to produce a winning set with a couple of breaks of serve which means Murray should have every chance to cover even if this match goes into a third set.
With the spread set as it is for this opening match of Group B, I think Murray will win a battling match in three sets 46, 62, 64.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: There have been some solid tournaments for Rafael Nadal since his surprising defeat at the US Open to Fabio Fognini and he will be looking to consolidate his World Number 5 Ranking. The match with Stan Wawrinka has looked the best one of the opening Group games especially after seeing how competitive their match was at the Paris Masters.
It could be the key match for both players in this Group with the losing player knowing they would likely have to win their last couple of games including against home favourite Andy Murray. That could increase the tension for both Nadal and Wawrinka and I think this could be one spectacular match to watch.
Stan Wawrinka got the better of Nadal in Paris, but the Spaniard will know he let his opponent off the hook. Nadal served for the first set an inexplicably missed a smash that would likely have seen him win the set before going down in two tie-breakers, while Wawrinka will be confident having won three of the last four in the head to head.
That includes a win on the clay courts earlier this season so Wawrinka won't mind the slower conditions in London as it allows him to set up his shots and crack winners. However, I do think Nadal has really improved his confidence in recent weeks and he did crush Wawrinka for the loss of three games in Shanghai.
Both players should have their moments in this one and Monday might prove to be a day where both matches end up going three sets compared with the straight set wins we saw on Sunday. However, it is after some tough work that I think Nadal earns a very important win on Monday and one that gives him a great chance to reach the Semi Final.
In three sets, I expect Nadal to come through 64, 67, 64.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 2-0, + 3.60 Units (4 Units Staked, + 90% Yield)
Sunday, 15 November 2015
ATP World Tour Finals Day 1 Picks 2015 (November 15th)
The final tournament of the 2015 Tennis Tour is here and then it will just down to the Davis Cup Final before we have a six week break and the beginning of the 2016 season.
It has been a fun year, one that might be looked back as the big one for Novak Djokovic rather than Serena Williams despite it looking like being a 'Serena Slam' year in the making.
How funny is it to now look back and think Novak Djokovic came closer to achieving the calendar Grand Slam than Serena Williams? All the talk was of the latter going into the US Open, but you have to say Djokovic's season has been the stronger in a much tougher field and it is hard to look beyond the World Number 1 achieving one more big title to underline his season.
The layers agree with Novak Djokovic a big favourite to take the title here- his recent performances have seen him comfortably see off so many of the field that have got together in London.
A Final between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer looks the most likely event out of the week despite the two being placed in the same Group. Kei Nishikori is definitely not 100% here, while Tomas Berdych has regularly found himself coming up short against the very best players on the Tour through the 2015 season.
The other Group is much more difficult to call with Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka all likely to have belief in their ability to get through to the Semi Finals. Murray's focus might be on the the Davis Cup Final coming up, which could mean the other three may surprise by helping knock out the British Number 1.
Then again, Murray has been in pretty good form himself and the matches with Nadal and Wawrinka look like being the key ones in the Group and I am looking forward to visiting the O2 Arena later in the week to catch some of these matches.
The first matches up in that Group B are between Murray-Ferrer and Nadal-Wawrinka... The latter could be a decisive one already as to who makes it through to the Semi Final and it looks a cracker in the making if their match in Paris is anything to go by.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Kei Nishikori: I think Kei Nishikori has got plenty of talent that could see him challenge for a Grand Slam title in the coming years, but one big concern has to be his physical well-being. He comes into the World Tour Finals with concerns about a shoulder and that won't bode well when taking on the World Number 1 in the opening match of the tournament.
Matches between Novak Djokovic and Nishikori have been competitive in the past in terms of needing to go the distance, but recent meetings have seen Djokovic out-last him physically and pull away in the decider. Djokovic has won all three matches against Nishikori since losing to him in the 2014 US Open Semi Final and there have been plenty of one-sided sets in his favour in that time too.
He is playing with plenty of confidence at the moment and Djokovic has produced a lot of winning matches by big margins as he is playing better on serve and return than most. If Nishikori is healthy to go having pulled out in Paris, he could give Djokovic something to think about, but it is hard to oppose the World Number 1 on current form.
Djokovic beat Nishikori by an eight game margin last year in the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals and I think he will enjoy the slightly slower indoor hard court conditions. With the injury to Nishikori in mind, I can see Djokovic creating all the chances to break serve during the course of the match and eventually prevailing 63, 63 to put himself in a strong position in the Group after one match.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: A disappointing early exit at the Paris Masters might have ended Roger Federer's hopes of finishing as the World Number 2 this season, but a big week here could change things. There has been no hiding from the fact that Federer knows it is a big achievement for him to finish at World Number 2 with those Seedings likely to go into the Australian Open next January, but he can get over the disappointment of Paris at a tournament he has enjoyed playing in.
The key for his qualification is likely to be this match as Roger Federer has had trouble when facing Tomas Berdych in the past. However, both of Federer's wins over Berdych have been relatively straight forward in 2015 and I think he will be confident he can set up a big match with Novak Djokovic on Tuesday.
No disrespect is intended towards Berdych who is the player who has challenged Novak Djokovic the most since the US Open when losing two tie-breakers to him in Paris. However, Berdych has found the top players a little too good this season and some of those losses have been one-sided as have both of those to Roger Federer.
When Berdych serves well he can be very dangerous, but the slower conditions in the O2 Arena might affect his game more than Roger Federer's and I think the latter's aggression is key to the match. I would look for Federer to get his teeth into a couple of the Berdych service games and use surprise tactics to attack the net which can end up paying dividends.
I expect some up and down moments from both players, but I like Federer to come through with a solid 63, 76 win.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
It has been a fun year, one that might be looked back as the big one for Novak Djokovic rather than Serena Williams despite it looking like being a 'Serena Slam' year in the making.
How funny is it to now look back and think Novak Djokovic came closer to achieving the calendar Grand Slam than Serena Williams? All the talk was of the latter going into the US Open, but you have to say Djokovic's season has been the stronger in a much tougher field and it is hard to look beyond the World Number 1 achieving one more big title to underline his season.
The layers agree with Novak Djokovic a big favourite to take the title here- his recent performances have seen him comfortably see off so many of the field that have got together in London.
A Final between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer looks the most likely event out of the week despite the two being placed in the same Group. Kei Nishikori is definitely not 100% here, while Tomas Berdych has regularly found himself coming up short against the very best players on the Tour through the 2015 season.
The other Group is much more difficult to call with Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka all likely to have belief in their ability to get through to the Semi Finals. Murray's focus might be on the the Davis Cup Final coming up, which could mean the other three may surprise by helping knock out the British Number 1.
Then again, Murray has been in pretty good form himself and the matches with Nadal and Wawrinka look like being the key ones in the Group and I am looking forward to visiting the O2 Arena later in the week to catch some of these matches.
The first matches up in that Group B are between Murray-Ferrer and Nadal-Wawrinka... The latter could be a decisive one already as to who makes it through to the Semi Final and it looks a cracker in the making if their match in Paris is anything to go by.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Kei Nishikori: I think Kei Nishikori has got plenty of talent that could see him challenge for a Grand Slam title in the coming years, but one big concern has to be his physical well-being. He comes into the World Tour Finals with concerns about a shoulder and that won't bode well when taking on the World Number 1 in the opening match of the tournament.
Matches between Novak Djokovic and Nishikori have been competitive in the past in terms of needing to go the distance, but recent meetings have seen Djokovic out-last him physically and pull away in the decider. Djokovic has won all three matches against Nishikori since losing to him in the 2014 US Open Semi Final and there have been plenty of one-sided sets in his favour in that time too.
He is playing with plenty of confidence at the moment and Djokovic has produced a lot of winning matches by big margins as he is playing better on serve and return than most. If Nishikori is healthy to go having pulled out in Paris, he could give Djokovic something to think about, but it is hard to oppose the World Number 1 on current form.
Djokovic beat Nishikori by an eight game margin last year in the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals and I think he will enjoy the slightly slower indoor hard court conditions. With the injury to Nishikori in mind, I can see Djokovic creating all the chances to break serve during the course of the match and eventually prevailing 63, 63 to put himself in a strong position in the Group after one match.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: A disappointing early exit at the Paris Masters might have ended Roger Federer's hopes of finishing as the World Number 2 this season, but a big week here could change things. There has been no hiding from the fact that Federer knows it is a big achievement for him to finish at World Number 2 with those Seedings likely to go into the Australian Open next January, but he can get over the disappointment of Paris at a tournament he has enjoyed playing in.
The key for his qualification is likely to be this match as Roger Federer has had trouble when facing Tomas Berdych in the past. However, both of Federer's wins over Berdych have been relatively straight forward in 2015 and I think he will be confident he can set up a big match with Novak Djokovic on Tuesday.
No disrespect is intended towards Berdych who is the player who has challenged Novak Djokovic the most since the US Open when losing two tie-breakers to him in Paris. However, Berdych has found the top players a little too good this season and some of those losses have been one-sided as have both of those to Roger Federer.
When Berdych serves well he can be very dangerous, but the slower conditions in the O2 Arena might affect his game more than Roger Federer's and I think the latter's aggression is key to the match. I would look for Federer to get his teeth into a couple of the Berdych service games and use surprise tactics to attack the net which can end up paying dividends.
I expect some up and down moments from both players, but I like Federer to come through with a solid 63, 76 win.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
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