The last Premier League round of fixtures prior to the next international break will take place from Friday across Sunday and it is a big weekend with the top two facing one another to conclude the fixtures this weekend.
It is also a big weekend for Jose Mourinho and Manchester United who need a positive result just to ease some of the tension around Old Trafford. I do think there will be a change in management sooner rather than later with the way the situation has developed at Manchester United, but that whole process could be sped up if Manchester United were to lose to Newcastle United.
Even dropping points won't be tolerated by the fans who have just shown some dissatisfaction with the football at the end of the goalless draw with Valencia.
I will have a short piece about Manchester United next week with my thoughts on how things are developing and the surprising choice I would make as manager if Jose Mourinho is moved on.
This weekend we have a Friday Night Football feature from the Premier League and I am looking to get October into a good position after back to back months with a positive return.
You can read my full Picks from the Premier League below.
Brighton v West Ham United Pick: The Premier League games last weekend did not feature a lot of goals but this opening game could potentially set the trend for the next round of games.
Both Brighton and West Ham United will have circled games like this one as important to win if they want to reach their goals for the season and I do think both sets of players will believe they can win this one.
The form guide is pointing to West Ham United who have turned a corner in their season with 3 wins from their last 4 games in all competitions. They have started to score plenty of goals and Manuel Pellegrini has got the squad playing some decent football.
West Ham United will certainly feel they can expose some holes in the Brighton defence which has been evident all season. The home side have conceded at least twice in every game at the Amex Stadium in the Premier League and that does not bode well when you think of the chances that West Ham United have begun to create.
On the other hand Brighton have been pretty good going forward and they are creating chances themselves. They will be much more proactive in this one than they were at Manchester City last weekend and Brighton also have the confidence of beating West Ham United in both Premier League games last season.
The chances being created by both clubs suggest we are going to see goals in this fixture and that is where I am going with this selection. I did consider to simply back both teams to score, but last season both League games produced at least three goals and the attacking football played by both Brighton and West Ham United suggests we can reach that number again.
At odds against I will pick at least three goals to be scored in this one with both teams creating enough to reach that number.
Burnley v Huddersfield Town Pick: They may have had to ride some luck last week and ask for a decent game from Joe Hart, but Burnley won't care now they have the three points secured from their trip to Cardiff City. Winning back to back Premier League games is huge for Sean Dyche and his players who had sunk into the bottom three after a tough start to the campaign.
Making it three in a row would move Burnley onto 10 points which would be a reasonable place to be going into the second international break of the season.
They are favoured to do that against a Huddersfield Town who look short of quality and confidence to compete at the Premier League level. A strong start to the 2017/18 season meant Huddersfield Town had the points in the bank to avoid relegation last time around, but they have been in relatively poor form throughout the 2018 calendar year and I do fear for them.
The lack of goals in the squad is a real concern, but you can't completely rule Huddersfield Town out this weekend.
Why? Well all 3 League goals have been scored away from home this season and they have led in their last 2 away Premier League games. Burnley are not a team who are likely to blow others away regularly, despite what they did to Bournemouth, and so conceding a goal would make this a tough game to win especially if they fall behind.
Huddersfield Town have also drawn 3 of their last 5 away Premier League games going back to last season and they have scored in 4 straight which means they need to be respected.
In saying that I do think Burnley are playing with more confidence and they should be able to edge to the win. Losing James Tarkowski is a blow, but Burnley can battle to the three points in this important game although my respect for Huddersfield Town's away performances means I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap which returns half the stake if the game finishes in a draw.
Crystal Palace v Wolves Pick: There is so much to admire about Wolves beginning with the style of football they have produced and the amount of chances they create in games. Better composure in the final third would have seen Wolves perhaps win at Manchester United and they have shown they are more than capable of reaching and perhaps exceeding the top ten prediction many had for the club before the season began.
This is a tough away trip for Wolves who are still looking for a little more consistency at the Premier League level, but they have shown enough to think they can earn the victory at Selhurst Park.
Crystal Palace is never an easy place to visit, but there has been some sort of fall out between the 'ultras' and the club and that has seen the atmosphere not reach the level of past years. I am not sure that is the main reason Crystal Palace have yet to win a Premier League game here, but the bigger factor may be scoring enough goals as they search for the first in the League at home.
For all the endeavour and quality that Crystal Palace clearly possess, I do think they are struggling to create enough chances. They should have beaten Newcastle United here in their last League game at Selhurst Park, but Crystal Palace have looked short of goals in other games while not defending as well as they would have liked.
I do think the home team will create chances against Wolves, but I also respect how well the latter have been playing. Wolves don't offer a lot of opportunities against them and they have shown there is a bite going forward which has me leaning towards the visitors.
Essentially the Asian Handicap is a 'Draw No Bet' market and I will look at getting behind Wolves with the knowledge the draw will return the stake.
Leicester City v Everton Pick: There have been some very positive signs for both Leicester City and Everton over the last month since the last international break and both will want to head into the next one with the momentum behind them.
This could be a decent game of football on Saturday especially as Everton tend to try and play attacking football under Marco Silva which does leave spaces to be attacked. Those are the kind of spaces Leicester City enjoy, especially if Jamie Vardy is passed fit as expected, and I think it makes for an interesting fixture.
You have to like the way Leicester City have played in the last couple of weeks with strong wins and performances against Huddersfield Town and Newcastle United. Granted both opponents have yet to win this season and are in the bottom three, but the chances created will make the fans believe Claude Puel is getting the best out of his squad.
Everton crushed Fulham last weekend, but they had been a little unfortunate in losses prior to that and I do think they are much more dangerous with Richarlison back in the line up. They can cause problems for a Leicester City team who have conceded in their last couple of home Premier League games, but I do have to worry about the number of goals Everton have been conceding.
The visitors have conceded at least twice in each of their last 4 away Premier League games and also conceded three times to West Ham United at home last month. With that amount of goals being conceded it is hard to have faith in Everton to do enough to earn a result here and I am going to back Leicester City to win and cover the Asian Handicap.
Tottenham Hotspur v Cardiff City Pick: There will be a few teams who are beaten by Barcelona at home in the manner Tottenham Hotspur were on Wednesday, but it was always going to be an even tougher ask for the home team with the injuries scattered around the squad.
A couple of those could potentially clear up this weekend, but even if they don't you would think facing Cardiff City is a considerably 'easier' task than facing Barcelona.
Neil Warnock has admitted his squad have not really been prepared for the step up in level to the Premier League having surprisingly earned promotion from the Championship. That doesn't mean the manager has given up on causing another surprise by keeping Cardiff City in the top flight, but Warnock hasn't had a lot of success in his career in doing that.
This team does look short of the level needed to compete in the Premier League and Cardiff City have to rely on outworking their opponents and also hoping for an off day from them. They will be motivated by playing at Wembley Stadium, but Cardiff City have struggled to contain the best teams they have faced and Tottenham Hotspur are playing at a decent enough level of late.
Tottenham Hotspur have won back to back Premier League games and they have created solid chances in those while Harry Kane looks to be ready for another good goal-scoring run. With the opportunities that Cardiff City have allowed the top teams they have faced to create, I do think Spurs can win this fixture by a couple of goals at least.
Watford v Bournemouth Pick: Two of the more surprising teams through the first two months of the 2018/19 season will meet on Saturday and it looks like a match that could be very enjoyable for the fans attending Vicarage Road.
Watford come into the weekend in 6th place and Bournemouth are 7th, but the form guide is pointing to the away team. While Watford have yet to win between the last international break and the one upcoming, Bournemouth have won 3 of their last 4 games and so I imagine the away team will have their backers as the underdog.
However the results alone don't tell the full story as Watford have played well enough to have gotten much more than they have in recent matches. They could easily have won at Arsenal last weekend and Watford continue to create enough chances to be given respect by any team they face at the moment.
The Bournemouth defending remains inconsistent to say the least so I do think Watford will create chances in this fixture and they will just have to show the composure that was lacking last weekend to make sure they can score some goals.
On the other side I also feel Bournemouth have played well enough to score here even if they have not managed to do that in their last 2 away games in the Premier League. The Cherries have had their chances in both games at Chelsea and Burnley and I don't think you can ignore the fact that the last 2 games between these teams at Vicarage Road have both ended 2-2.
There should certainly be enough chances for both teams to get close to that number of goals again and I am going to back at least three to be shared out.
Manchester United v Newcastle United Pick: It has not been much fun being a Manchester United fan over the last couple of weeks as the side have lurched from one poor result to another. The football has been far from inspiring and the constant battles between the manager and the players has worn the fans down.
On Tuesday the fans seemed to be voicing more discontent as they booed off Manchester United following the goalless draw with Valencia in the Champions League. The second half was much better than the first, but there does seem to be a lack of conviction or a real game plan in the final third.
It has meant there has been an almost desperate feel to some of the attacking play, but Manchester United can bounce back prior to the two week international break by winning this fixture. As poor as the results have been, Manchester United have at least shown some life compared with Newcastle United who have been in miserable form in the 2018/19 season.
Rafa Benitez has not been given a real chance to purchase the players he would like and at the moment he is struggling to get more out of what is a limited squad. The lack of goals is a real problem for Newcastle United to try and resolve and this is a not a team who create a lot of chances.
There is no love lost between Benitez and Jose Mourinho so there is that tension at play, but this shouldn't be a fair fight with Mourinho being able to call on much better players than Benitez. The latter will look to make life as difficult as possible by organising his Newcastle United team into two banks of four, but a real concern for the fans has to be the poor defensive performances produced so far.
With the way Manchester United are playing this is a big Asian Handicap to cover, but I think they will be able to do enough in the final third to break down this Newcastle United team who have conceded too many goals in recent games. It is a risky play because Manchester United haven't been very good over the last month, and they have not won at Old Trafford since early August, but this may be the ideal opponent to bounce back against and I will back the hosts to be too strong.
Fulham v Arsenal Pick: The long away trips in the Europa League can play havoc with preparations for the next Premier League game and Arsenal will be playing in the early Sunday slot which makes it that much tougher for them.
They were able to rest some key players in the win over Qarabag, but a strong squad travelled and it will be a big ask of them to win at Fulham.
The home team have been far from consistent in the 2018/19 season as Fulham have returned to the Premier League. There have been some good performances but Fulham have looked very poor defensively and that has to be an issue against an Arsenal team who have scored at least twice in 4 straight away games in all competitions.
However Arsenal have really not been as strong defensively as their 3 clean sheets in the last 4 games would suggest. Teams have created some very promising chances against Arsenal but they have not shown the composure in front of goal to finish those off, but I am not so concerned about Fulham being unable to take their chances if they are presented in this Premier League game.
It is no surprise to me the layers have shortened the price of seeing at least three goals in this one and even the option of picking four or more goals to be scored is a much shorter price than you may expect. The layers aren't far wrong to do that though with both teams showing real vulnerability defensively that can be exploited by the other.
I am expecting goals with that in mind and I think Fulham can definitely push Arsenal as much as Cardiff City did last month. I will look for at least four to be shared out in this early live televised game on Sunday.
Southampton v Chelsea Pick: Like I have said about Arsenal, playing in the Europa League on a Thursday and in the Premier League on a Sunday has proven to be a tough experience for English clubs in recent years.
The positive for Chelsea is their last Europa League game was played at Stamford Bridge and they have also managed to give some players a rest which should mean they are prepared for their trip to Southampton.
The layers are very much expecting a Chelsea win, but I don't think it will be plain-sailing on the south coast with Southampton having plenty of energy in the final third and looking pretty effective going forward. There is a confidence issue at St Mary's which has to be addressed by Mark Hughes as Southampton have won 1 of their last 14 Premier League games here and I do think nervousness does affect the players highlighted most in their 2-2 draw with Brighton in a game they had led 2-0.
Last season Southampton also blew a 2-0 lead against a Chelsea team that had looked disinterested in the last few weeks of the Premier League season and that means Chelsea have won on their last 3 visits to this ground.
It is all about the mentality of the Southampton players and whether they can perform with a little bit more conviction in front of their own fans, but even then it is a tough ask for them to beat a Chelsea team who are in decent form.
Chelsea may not have won their last 2 Premier League games, but they have created enough chances to do that and Eden Hazard looks to be in wonderful form. It was actually a Hazard miss against Liverpool that left them vulnerable to the late Daniel Sturridge strike eight days ago, but Chelsea have looked very threatening when they have come forward.
I don't believe the home team are good enough defensively to contain that threat either and I fancy Chelsea to win here. However I do think they will need to score at least twice to do that with Southampton producing some decent football in the final third themselves and so backing Chelsea to win a game featuring two or more goals is my selection.
Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: The Premier League is about to go on a two week hiatus but they might be saving the best game of the weekend until last with the top two meeting at Anfield.
Unsurprisingly the layers are not having an easy time picking a favourite although I have to admit I thought it would be Manchester City going in as the marginal shorter price considering the current form of the two teams.
However you can't dismiss the fact that Liverpool have beaten Manchester City 3 times in a row and also won the last 6 matches between them at Anfield. That has to be factored into the price and so it is the slightly out of form Liverpool who come in as the one the layers believe will be top of the League come the end of the weekend.
I am really struggling to pick the winner- I can make a case for both with Liverpool being very strong at home and their dominance over Manchester City in the 2018 calendar year, while Manchester City look to be in the better overall form and have been creating chances for fun in recent games.
Something that has surprised me is the slight lack of composure both Liverpool and Manchester City have shown in the final third despite the amount of goals they have been scoring. Both teams have been guilty of some glaring misses over the last couple of weeks and even the managers have pointed out that they want more from their players.
Goals have flowed when these teams have met and I would be surprised if we didn't see at least three again on Sunday. All 4 matches between these teams hit that number last season and half of those saw at least five goals shared out by the teams including a crazy 4-3 win for Liverpool in the Premier League.
Over the years these teams have combined for plenty of goals when facing each other and the style both managers employ suggest there will be plenty of chances in this one too. Backing at least three goals to be shared out might not be the most appealing price, but I do fancy that very much in this one.
However I think there is enough of a reason to back at least one more goal being shared out on Sunday. Liverpool have already beaten Paris Saint-Germain 3-2 here in the Champions League and Manchester City have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 away games overall.
The home team will always create chances against the defensive shape Manchester City employ and it looks a big price to see four or more goals on Sunday.
MY PICKS: Brighton-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fulham-Arsenal Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Liverpool-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
October Update: 10-7-1, + 3.66 Units (36 Units Staked, + 10.17% Yield)
Friday, 5 October 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (October 5th)
After a very strong Wednesday, Thursday proved to be a really disappointing day for the Tennis Picks and I am taking a huge chunk of blame for that.
Any time you make a selection you are going to need some luck behind you, but I should not be putting my faith in certain players to perform when they have a long record of inconsistency yet I did pick at least one player who falls into that category already this week.
I do have a list of players that I simply would not trust as a favourite and I went against that because I thought there was enough value there, but I am not going to make that same mistake twice.
The week is still in a positive position but the numbers took a big dent on Thursday.
Now the plan is to try and finish this week as positively as possible and at least round off with some positive numbers to add to the season totals.
This week has been a busy one in terms of writing out a full analysis for the Tennis Picks being made, but I am hoping the rest of this month will be a little easier to put my reasoning down for the Picks that finish off the 2018 season.
MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-8, + 3.80 Units (38 Units Staked, + 10% Yield)
Any time you make a selection you are going to need some luck behind you, but I should not be putting my faith in certain players to perform when they have a long record of inconsistency yet I did pick at least one player who falls into that category already this week.
I do have a list of players that I simply would not trust as a favourite and I went against that because I thought there was enough value there, but I am not going to make that same mistake twice.
The week is still in a positive position but the numbers took a big dent on Thursday.
Now the plan is to try and finish this week as positively as possible and at least round off with some positive numbers to add to the season totals.
This week has been a busy one in terms of writing out a full analysis for the Tennis Picks being made, but I am hoping the rest of this month will be a little easier to put my reasoning down for the Picks that finish off the 2018 season.
MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-8, + 3.80 Units (38 Units Staked, + 10% Yield)
Thursday, 4 October 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (October 4th)
The middle of the week can be a make or break moment for the Tennis Picks in any given week. but it looks to have made the week this time around.
I don't want to give anything back with the positive results earned, but there are still some big matches to come this week as players chase their spots in the end of season Finals that are due to tae place in the next few weeks.
On Thursday the Tennis Picks will come from the ATP events in Beijing and Tokyo although there are clearly not as many selections as I had on Wednesday.
MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur @ 2.40 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-5, + 9.80 Units (32 Unit Staked, + 30.63% Yield)
I don't want to give anything back with the positive results earned, but there are still some big matches to come this week as players chase their spots in the end of season Finals that are due to tae place in the next few weeks.
On Thursday the Tennis Picks will come from the ATP events in Beijing and Tokyo although there are clearly not as many selections as I had on Wednesday.
MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur @ 2.40 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-5, + 9.80 Units (32 Unit Staked, + 30.63% Yield)
Wednesday, 3 October 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (October 3rd)
This is the last month of the WTA Tour and the China Open is considered one of the last big opportunities for players to chase those spots in the WTA Finals.
Some of those places have already been determined, but news that Simona Halep has slipped a disc in her back means her participation is clearly up in the air.
That tournament continues on Wednesday as well as the two ATP events being played this week and you can see my selections below. It may not be as busy a day as Tuesday, but more of the matches fit into my criteria and so there are more Picks today than there has been so far this week.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anastsija Sevastova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-3, + 1.50 Units (14 Units Staked, + 10.71% Yield)
Some of those places have already been determined, but news that Simona Halep has slipped a disc in her back means her participation is clearly up in the air.
That tournament continues on Wednesday as well as the two ATP events being played this week and you can see my selections below. It may not be as busy a day as Tuesday, but more of the matches fit into my criteria and so there are more Picks today than there has been so far this week.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anastsija Sevastova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-3, + 1.50 Units (14 Units Staked, + 10.71% Yield)
Tuesday, 2 October 2018
Midweek Football Picks 2018 (October 2-4)
The second round of Group games in both the Champions League and Europa League are being played this midweek before one more round of top flight Football across Europe comes this weekend.
That will wrap up this section of the season as we then enter a two week international break and for Manchester United fans it will be a testing time if the side can't put together a couple of wins at Old Trafford over the next few days.
It has been a turbulent time at Carrington and I will have my next 'United Corner' piece ready to go during the international break and prior to the Premier League visit to Stamford Bridge.
It is an important week coming up for United as well as the other English clubs in European action with all of the Champions League games looking very important. Both Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur were beaten on Match Day 1 and need to bounce back immediately, while Liverpool can take a giant step towards the Second Round if they can win in Naples.
Qualifying from the Group as soon as possible could be a big advantage for Liverpool when we get closer to the extremely busy December period especially if Manchester City are being forced to fight for their place in the Last 16. Those two clubs also meet in a big Premier League game this Sunday which will determine which of those clubs go into the second international break of the season in top spot.
The Europa League Group Stages should be very manageable for Arsenal and Chelsea who can make it two wins from two on Thursday and continue to concentrate on what has been strong starts to the Premier League campaign.
September started off poorly for the Football Picks but the second half of the month was much better meaning back to back months with a positive return. Starting off October in a strong fashion will keep the momentum rolling and you can read my Midweek Football Picks below.
Hoffenheim v Manchester City Pick: The surprising results in this Group on Match Day 1 means Hoffenheim actually come into this fixture above Manchester City whose 1-2 home loss to Lyon means they are the only team chasing their first points in this section.
There won't be a rush of people backing Manchester City to miss out on the Second Round of the Champions League after the defeat to Lyon, but they have just tightened the margin for error in the Group. They certainly can't afford a second defeat in a row in the Champions League and extend a shocking run which has seen Manchester City lose 4 straight games in this competition and become the first English side to suffer through that.
Last season Manchester City showed they can perform away from home in the Champions League with 3 wins from 4 games played outside of England. They scored four goals in each of those wins in Feyenoord, Napoli and Basel and Manchester City are coming in off 3 straight wins since the defeat to Lyon.
The knock Sergio Aguero is playing through is a slight concern, but Manchester City will have noted how tough Hoffenheim have been having it this season since Julian Nagelsmann decided he will be moving on to Leipzig to take over as manager next season.
Hoffenheim did have a 9 game unbeaten run at home come to an end with a 1-2 loss to Leipzig this weekend and they have been conceding plenty of goals. They will believe they can challenge Manchester City with the attacking intent they have displayed, but Hoffenheim's surprising 2-2 draw at Shakhtar Donetsk has not changed my mind on where I see this team in the Group.
That was a very positive result, but Manchester City are a step above Shakhtar Donetsk and I do think they will win here. Hoffenheim may play their part by causing plenty of problems for their visitors when they build up some attacking momentum, but ultimately I think the English Champions will have too much quality all around for Hoffenheim.
I think that will lead to a relatively comfortable win on the scoreboard and I will back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap.
Juventus v Young Boys Pick: There have been some serious allegations made about Cristiano Ronaldo with the Las Vegas Police Department reinvestigating matters which have been making some headlines this week. Ronaldo won't be able to play in this fixture after being sent off on Match Day 1, but he is yet to fully invest himself in the allegations made.
Juventus will try and put any of those issues aside and concentrate on their football as they look to back up an important win over Valencia. Another on Tuesday will see the Old Lady in a very strong position to Qualify from this Group which looked quite tough on paper.
It would be a big surprise if Juventus are not good enough to beat Young Boys without Ronaldo and I am looking to back the Italian Champions to win with a comfortable margin too.
You can't ignore the fact that Juventus have never really hammered teams in the Champions League, even at home, as they make sure they do what they need to. That has seen relatively narrow wins over Dinamo Zagreb and Olympiacos here in the Champions League in recent years in the Group Stage which makes it a big tougher to trust Juventus to cover this Asian Handicap.
However Young Boys showed against Manchester United that there is a real gap to bridge to the very best teams in Europe and they have particularly struggled to impose themselves away from home. They look like being the dominant team in Switzerland again this season, but I would be surprised if Young Boys are very competitive in this one and I will back Juventus to win by at least two goals on the day.
Bayern Munich v Ajax Pick: Both of these clubs have a long and positive history in the European Cup with at least four trophies won by Bayern Munich and Ajax, although the latter are some way off those standards these days.
They might be catching Bayern Munich at the right time with the German Champions failing to win any of their last 2 games and they were beaten at Hertha Berlin over the weekend.
However there is enough quality in the Bayern Munich team to think they can bounce back and they are facing an Ajax team who simply aren't up to the level of the real elite of European Football. Ajax were also recently beaten 3-0 at PSV Eindhoven and I do worry about them when they face the very best teams.
Bayern Munich did not win their last 2 home Champions League games, but they had won their first 4 in the competition last season and all by at least two goal margins. The German Champions have been particularly dominant when it comes to home games in the Champions League Group Stage and they have tended to hammer those teams lower down the European food chain with big wins over those clubs.
Take away Manchester City and Atletico Madrid and you can see Bayern Munich have won 13 of their last 15 home Group games by at least two goal margins. It will be tough for this Ajax team to contain them I feel and I will back Bayern Munich to move into a commanding position in the Group with a solid win.
Lyon v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: One of the biggest surprises through the first round of matches in the Champions League Group Stage had to be the Lyon 1-2 win at Manchester City which has put the French side in a strong position in the Group already.
Manchester City are considered the team to beat in the Group so those points earned means Lyon will feel they have their own destiny in their hands going into the next four Champions League games.
Lyon have a very good recent home record in European competition with 7 wins in their last 10 home games. It will give them confidence against a Shakhtar Donetsk team who have lost 7 of their last 8 away Champions League games and who had to settle for a disappointing 2-2 home draw with Hoffenheim on Match Day 1.
I do think Shakhtar Donetsk are a dangerous team who have to be respected, but Lyon have been in decent form over the last month and could have beaten Nantes this past weekend if not missing a late penalty. They have been scoring goals and I think Lyon back up their win over Manchester City be securing another vital three points here which will mean they are strong favourites to make it through to the Last 16.
The strong home record in recent European games adds to my belief in the French team and I will back them to win here.
Roma v Viktoria Plzen Pick: It was something of a 'no show' from Roma in their trip to Real Madrid on Match Day 1 as they were completely outplayed, but this is the Group Stage and most will expect the Italian club to bounce back.
That 3-0 loss to Real Madrid has been a part of what can only be described as a pretty poor start to the new season for a club that reached the Champions League Semi Final a few months ago. However there have been signs Roma are about to bounce back having recorded 2 big wins at home over the last seven days in the Italian top flight.
They will be expected to make it three in a row when they face Viktoria Plzen and Roma certainly have the goals in the squad to do that. Roma have now scored at least twice in all 4 home games played in the 2018/19 season, while they have extended their run to scoring at least twice in 8 of their last 9 here.
It doesn't bode well for Viktoria Plzen who have lost 4-0 at Slavia Prague and 3-0 at Jablonec in their last couple of away games. They have looked the weakest team in the Group and blowing a 2-0 lead at home against CSKA Moscow on Match Day 1 puts Viktoria Plzen in a difficult position.
This is another step up for Viktoria Plzen and I am not sure they are going to be able to make it against a Roma team who have won their last 5 Champions League games at home. Roma did struggle to put away Qarabag last season, but they did beat Chelsea, Barcelona and Liverpool by two or more goal margins.
I will back Roma to bounce back from their defeat to Real Madrid and win a third straight home game in all competitions by two or more goals.
Paris Saint-Germain v Crvena Zvezda Pick: I don't think I was the only one who was disappointed with the level of performance Paris Saint-Germain produced in their 3-2 loss to Liverpool on Match Day 1 of the Champions League Group Stage. They looked like a team that are not going to be able to challenge the elite of European Football, but you can't dismiss them out of hand with the talent Paris Saint-Germain put onto the field in every match they play.
They have certainly shown they can dominate those teams lower down the food chain and heavy wins over the likes of Celtic and Anderlecht twelve months ago underlines that point.
I would expect Paris Saint-Germain, who have scored at least three goals in every home game they have played so far in the 2018/19 season, to be far too good for Crvena Zvezda in this early kick off on Wednesday afternoon.
The visitors are best known as Red Star Belgrade and are a former European Cup winner, but that was a long time ago and Crvena Zvezda have slipped from those standards of years gone by. Getting into the Champions League Group Stage is a huge achievement for them already and the draw with Napoli shows they can be hard to break down, although that match could have gone considerably differently if Napoli had taken the early chances they had fashioned.
Paris Saint-Germain are usually very clinical at home and so I am not anticipating them missing the same kind of opportunities as Napoli did. An early goal could see this fixture head in a similar manner as to Paris Saint-Germain's home wins over Anderlecht and Celtic in the Group Stage last season and I will back the French Champions to cover a big Asian Handicap and get this Group back on track.
Atletico Madrid v Club Brugge Pick: They may have won the Europa League last season but don't for one second believe Atletico Madrid were not embarrassed with their Group Stage exit in the Champions League. This is a team who have been very close to winning the competition over the last few years so the premature exit was a real surprise to everyone associated with the club.
They won't make the same mistakes this time around and showed that by coming from behind to beat Monaco 1-2 on Match Day 1.
However there is still something for Atletico Madrid to prove having failed to beat Qarabag in either Champions League Group game last season and so they won't be overlooking Club Brugge.
Atletico Madrid have been very good at home in Europe in general and they continue to be a tough team to break down. I think Diego Simeone will be looking to make sure they remain defensively sound in the belief that they will break down a Club Brugge team who have been a poor traveller at this level.
Scoring goals against better opposition has been a challenge for Club Brugge too and it is telling that 5 of their last 6 away defeats have come in matches they have not been able to score. Club Brugge have only scored in 1 of their last 4 away Champions League games too and I think Atletico Madrid remain the masters of the 'Win to Nil' at home and will back them to do that in this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund v Monaco Pick: Things have changed considerably for Monaco since they beat Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League Quarter Final in April 2017 in a tie that will be remembered for the blasts near the Dortmund coach which injured a couple of the players.
The Monaco team who played that Quarter Final have been broken up with key players now residing in Manchester and Paris and the poor form to open the season has to be a concern. They have already been beaten at home by Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, but the domestic form has been even more worrying as Monaco have slipped into the bottom three in France.
It is not ideal preparation for a visit to Borussia Dortmund who have been in good form to open the season.
At home they have been particularly strong with 3 straight wins and scoring at least three goals in each of those games. It is the kind of form that makes Borussia Dortmund very dangerous and I think they could overwhelm Monaco in this one and I do like the home team to win the fixture.
Covering the Asian Handicap won't be easy for Borussia Dortmund who have won 1 of their last 6 home European ties, but they are scoring plenty of goals and may be facing Monaco at the right time.
Porto v Galatasaray Pick: Group D in the Champions League looks the weakest one by some distance and I would imagine whichever two teams go through to the Last 16 won't be lasting much longer than that.
In saying that, Porto and Galatasaray won't be worrying what anyone thinks of the standard of the Group and are simply going to be fighting tooth and nail for a vital three points.
You have to give the edge to Porto in front of what is usually a loud home support and they are facing a Galatasaray team that hasn't played a lot of European Football over the last couple of years. Like many Turkish clubs, Galatasaray are also not the best travellers in Europe and they have lost their last 4 away European ties ahead of this one.
Their 3-0 home over Lokomotiv Moscow was a huge result for Galatasaray, but the challenge here is much bigger. Porto have only won 2 of their last 5 home Champions League games but both of those have come by margins of two or more goals and I think they will be able to do the same here.
I will back Porto to cover the Asian Handicap on Match Day 2.
Napoli v Liverpool Pick: This Group looked a tough one on paper when it was drawn in August, but Liverpool can take a big step towards the Last 16 of the Champions League if they can win in Naples.
Last season Liverpool showed they can be very dangerous away from home in this competition with their ability to score plenty of goals and that has to be a concern for Napoli. The last time an English side came to Naples Manchester City hit four goals in a victory in the Champions League Group Stage twelve months ago, but Liverpool can also be vulnerable defensively.
That was underlined in their 4-2 loss at Roma in the Champions League Semi Final Second Leg and Napoli have to be confident having won all 3 home games under new manager Carlo Ancelotti. Goals haven't been a problem for Napoli and this has the makings of an entertaining game with both clubs better going forward than looking to sit back and defend in numbers.
Napoli's failure to beat Crvena Zvezda on Match Day 1 has put the pressure on them to win all 3 home games in the Group if they want to try and work their way into the Last 16. That won't be lost on the manager and I think the attacking play will lead to some chances for Liverpool too and I think they can combine for a few goals in this one.
There is a feeling the Liverpool strikers are slightly out of form, but they continue to create a host of chances and both teams may in a position to help produce at least four goals on the night.
Bayer Leverkusen v AEK Larnaca Pick: In recent years Bayer Leverkusen have become a familiar name in the Champions League, but they missed out this season and have had to settle for a place in the Europa League.
This is a competition in which they could thrive if Bayer Leverkusen give it the due care and attention they should and the 2-3 win at Ludogorets on Match Day 1 suggests that may be the case.
They have not made the best start to the Bundesliga, but Bayer Leverkusen have faced both Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich already. I expect an improvement from Bayer Leverkusen going forward and they can pick up a morale boosting win on Thursday.
AEK Larnaca are unlikely to roll over for Leverkusen, but this is a team who have already been beaten by Zurich in the Group and have done well to get to this Stage of the Europa League.
They have won 2 of their last 8 away games in this competition, but those have come in the Qualifying Rounds and this should prove to be a big step up for AEK Larnaca. I expect that to show up on the scoreboard too and I will back the home team to win on the Asian Handicap.
Salzburg v Celtic Pick: Brendan Rodgers is perhaps considering his future as Celtic manager with the financial constraints on him and the players perhaps losing a little belief in his methods showing up in the results the club have been earning. Everything seems to be hard work for Celtic at the moment and confidence looks to be at a low point with the club sitting in 5th place in the Scottish Premiership.
They might be able to express themselves with some freedom in Austria as the underdog, but Celtic have lost 4 of their last 7 away European ties and the lack of goals overall is a real concern.
The point is underlined when you think of how strong Salzburg have been all season and they have gotten over the real disappointment of missing out on the Champions League Group Stage. The away goals defeat was a real upset for Salzburg considering they reached the Europa League Quarter Final last season, but this is a team that could have another big impact at this level.
Home form is critical for Salzburg and I do think they can back up the impressive 2-3 win in Leipzig from Match Day 1. The side have won 13 of their last 14 home games and scored at least twice in all but one of those games so they clearly have the firepower to do away with Celtic here.
Celtic did earn a 2-2 draw in Salzburg in the 2014/15 Europa League Group Stage, but they don't look to have enough goals to do the same this time around. I will look for the more confident Salzburg team to wear down Celtic and eventually cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Qarabag v Arsenal Pick: The Europa League may not be a top priority for English clubs over the years but Manchester United proved it is a competition that can be won and a strong way back into the Champions League.
By hook or by crook getting back into the Champions League is all important for Arsenal this season and Unai Emery has admitted he would prefer to do that by winning the Europa League than finishing in the top four. His team selection on Match Day 1 and the squad travelling to Azerbaijan has underlined the importance the manager attaches to the Europa League and he is a serial winner of the competition from his time as manager of Sevilla.
A strong Arsenal team should be good to win in Qarabag even if the home team should be respected for drawing with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League Group Stage last season. In that same section they were beaten by Roma and Chelsea with the English club running away with a dominant 0-4 win here.
Qarabag will have learnt some lessons from that defeat, but they look like a team who will struggle to deal with the speed of play Arsenal put together in the final third. Even so, Qarabag could potentially cause one or two problems of their own considering how Arsenal have yet to really fix their defensive issues despite the 7 game winning run they are enjoying.
The Gunners should have too much firepower though and can make up for their defensive shortcomings in this one. I respect Qarabag as they have rarely been blown away at home in European competition, but I do think Arsenal may have too much for them and can win by a couple of goals on the day.
Bordeaux v Kobenhavn Pick: Both Bordeaux and Kobenhavn failed to win their opening Group game in the Europa League this season which means there should be a little more pressure on the players to respond on Match Day 2.
There isn't as much between these teams as there would be between Kobenhavn and one of the stronger clubs in the French top flight, but I do still think Bordeaux should have the slight edge.
Home advantage only increases that edge and Bordeaux have been playing well here so far this season with 4 wins from their last 5 in all competitions. They might be facing Kobenhavn at the right time as the Danish club have slipped to defeat in 2 of their last 3 away games and the step up to the Europa League level is still a significant one for them.
I have to respect the fact that Kobenhavn knocked out Atalanta in the Play Off Round of the Europa League to enter the Group Stage. They battled to a goalless draw in Italy so can dig in to upset Bordeaux here, but the hosts have been scoring enough goals to think they can pick up the three points.
It may be close at times and both teams will need a bit of fortune, but I will look for Bordeaux to have home advantage tell in this one.
Zenit St Petersburg v Slavia Prague Pick: In usual weeks you could see Zenit St Petersburg and Slavia Prague being given one more day to recover from Europa League action and have their next League fixture moved to a Monday. That won't be the case this week with the international break upcoming and that raises a few more doubts as to the team selection of the managers.
There are more question marks about Zenit St Petersburg who face Krasnodar this weekend, the team currently closest to them in the Russian top flight standings. That is a big game for a club looking to return to the top of Russian Football, but Zenit St Petersburg could only force a draw on Match Day 1 of the Europa League so know the importance of winning this one too.
Zenit St Petersburg have been very good in the Europa League with 7 wins from their last 8 home games in this competition. That is plenty of reason to believe they will pick a team capable of beating a Slavia Prague team who have not travelled that well in European Football although one that did earn a surprising away draw at Villarreal last season in the Group.
I don't think Slavia Prague roll over for Zenit St Petersburg, but this is a tough place to play. They have three points on the board in the Group so there may be less pressure on Slavia Prague, but ultimately I think being at home gives Zenit St Petersburg enough of an edge to win this one.
Team news may be worth keeping an eye on, but I will back Zenit St Petersburg to win this game.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Lazio Pick: Both of these teams have made a positive start to the Europa League Group which also contains a tough Marseille team.
With wins on Match Day 1, the winner of this game between Eintracht Frankfurt and Lazio will put themselves in a commanding position to reach the Last 32 with a victory on Match Day 2.
Goals have been flowing in matches involving these teams in the last couple of weeks and that could be the case when they play one another. The win they have already earned in the Group could see the teams playing with some freedom in this one with the next three points putting them in such a strong position in the Group.
4 of the 6 away Europa League games Lazio played last season ended with three or more goals shared out and they have been scoring and conceding plenty in recent games. 5 of the last 6 Eintracht Frankfurt games have also featured at least three goals shared out and I will look for these teams to combine for that number in this one too.
Rangers v Rapid Vienna Pick: Progressing in the Europa League through to the Knock Out Rounds could be a big achievement for Rangers and a progressive development for the club in general. Steven Gerrard has made it clear he wants to do well in every competition Rangers play and the 2-2 draw in Villarreal should give them plenty of confidence going forward.
Backing it up with a home win over Rapid Vienna is the key for Rangers if they have serious ambitions of making it through and they have played well enough at Ibrox to do that.
Rangers have won 4 of their 5 home Europa League games played in the last eighteen months and the draw in Villarreal was another positive result for them. Now they face a Rapid Vienna team who have been struggling away from home in recent games and who have a poor away European record with 6 losses from their last 9 away Europa League games.
I am a little concerned that Gerrard is perhaps going to be focusing on the big League games against Hearts to come this weekend, but Rangers have been strong at home throughout 2018/19. The manager will want this to be a difficult ground for any club to visit so will be looking to keep the momentum behind his players and I do think Rangers will edge out Rapid Vienna in this one.
The Austrian side have a lot more European experience than Rangers, but they simply haven't travelled well and I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw.
Sarpsborg v Genk Pick: Sarpsborg have surprised many domestically and also would have raised some eyebrows throughout the Europa League competition by making their way through four Qualifying Rounds in their maiden European campaign. It might have taken a toll on the players though and 7 straight losses in all competitions underlines that point.
However I expect the adrenaline to be pumping from the players to the fans as they play their first home Group Stage game in the Europa League. That should give the players a boost, but it may not be enough to beat an in-form Genk team who are looking to make it two wins out of two in the Group.
Genk are still chasing Club Brugge domestically, but they have been in very good form overall and 18 wins in their last 21 games is an impressive return. It has been just as good away from home where they have won 7 of their last 8 games in all competitions and have been scoring goals for fun having racked up 26 in that 8 game unbeaten run.
They are a team experienced in Europe and who have won 5 of their last 7 away Europa League games too and I think that experience can help Genk get the better of a team who have been treading water in recent games.
I do think Sarpsborg can offer some problems being at home where they have won 3 of their 4 Europa League games. However you can't ignore the really poor form they are in and they have conceded at least twice in their last 3 home games.
With the goals Genk are scoring I will look for the visitors to win a fixture that features two or more goals.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juventus - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lyon @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roma - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 2.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Porto - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Napoli-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayer Leverkusen - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Salzburg - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bordeaux @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Eintracht Frankfurt-Lazio Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rangers - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Genk & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
September 2018: 26-24, + 3.62 Units (100 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
August 2018: 15-12, + 3.10 Units (54 Units Staked, + 5.74% Yield)
That will wrap up this section of the season as we then enter a two week international break and for Manchester United fans it will be a testing time if the side can't put together a couple of wins at Old Trafford over the next few days.
It has been a turbulent time at Carrington and I will have my next 'United Corner' piece ready to go during the international break and prior to the Premier League visit to Stamford Bridge.
It is an important week coming up for United as well as the other English clubs in European action with all of the Champions League games looking very important. Both Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur were beaten on Match Day 1 and need to bounce back immediately, while Liverpool can take a giant step towards the Second Round if they can win in Naples.
Qualifying from the Group as soon as possible could be a big advantage for Liverpool when we get closer to the extremely busy December period especially if Manchester City are being forced to fight for their place in the Last 16. Those two clubs also meet in a big Premier League game this Sunday which will determine which of those clubs go into the second international break of the season in top spot.
The Europa League Group Stages should be very manageable for Arsenal and Chelsea who can make it two wins from two on Thursday and continue to concentrate on what has been strong starts to the Premier League campaign.
September started off poorly for the Football Picks but the second half of the month was much better meaning back to back months with a positive return. Starting off October in a strong fashion will keep the momentum rolling and you can read my Midweek Football Picks below.
Hoffenheim v Manchester City Pick: The surprising results in this Group on Match Day 1 means Hoffenheim actually come into this fixture above Manchester City whose 1-2 home loss to Lyon means they are the only team chasing their first points in this section.
There won't be a rush of people backing Manchester City to miss out on the Second Round of the Champions League after the defeat to Lyon, but they have just tightened the margin for error in the Group. They certainly can't afford a second defeat in a row in the Champions League and extend a shocking run which has seen Manchester City lose 4 straight games in this competition and become the first English side to suffer through that.
Last season Manchester City showed they can perform away from home in the Champions League with 3 wins from 4 games played outside of England. They scored four goals in each of those wins in Feyenoord, Napoli and Basel and Manchester City are coming in off 3 straight wins since the defeat to Lyon.
The knock Sergio Aguero is playing through is a slight concern, but Manchester City will have noted how tough Hoffenheim have been having it this season since Julian Nagelsmann decided he will be moving on to Leipzig to take over as manager next season.
Hoffenheim did have a 9 game unbeaten run at home come to an end with a 1-2 loss to Leipzig this weekend and they have been conceding plenty of goals. They will believe they can challenge Manchester City with the attacking intent they have displayed, but Hoffenheim's surprising 2-2 draw at Shakhtar Donetsk has not changed my mind on where I see this team in the Group.
That was a very positive result, but Manchester City are a step above Shakhtar Donetsk and I do think they will win here. Hoffenheim may play their part by causing plenty of problems for their visitors when they build up some attacking momentum, but ultimately I think the English Champions will have too much quality all around for Hoffenheim.
I think that will lead to a relatively comfortable win on the scoreboard and I will back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap.
Juventus v Young Boys Pick: There have been some serious allegations made about Cristiano Ronaldo with the Las Vegas Police Department reinvestigating matters which have been making some headlines this week. Ronaldo won't be able to play in this fixture after being sent off on Match Day 1, but he is yet to fully invest himself in the allegations made.
Juventus will try and put any of those issues aside and concentrate on their football as they look to back up an important win over Valencia. Another on Tuesday will see the Old Lady in a very strong position to Qualify from this Group which looked quite tough on paper.
It would be a big surprise if Juventus are not good enough to beat Young Boys without Ronaldo and I am looking to back the Italian Champions to win with a comfortable margin too.
You can't ignore the fact that Juventus have never really hammered teams in the Champions League, even at home, as they make sure they do what they need to. That has seen relatively narrow wins over Dinamo Zagreb and Olympiacos here in the Champions League in recent years in the Group Stage which makes it a big tougher to trust Juventus to cover this Asian Handicap.
However Young Boys showed against Manchester United that there is a real gap to bridge to the very best teams in Europe and they have particularly struggled to impose themselves away from home. They look like being the dominant team in Switzerland again this season, but I would be surprised if Young Boys are very competitive in this one and I will back Juventus to win by at least two goals on the day.
Bayern Munich v Ajax Pick: Both of these clubs have a long and positive history in the European Cup with at least four trophies won by Bayern Munich and Ajax, although the latter are some way off those standards these days.
They might be catching Bayern Munich at the right time with the German Champions failing to win any of their last 2 games and they were beaten at Hertha Berlin over the weekend.
However there is enough quality in the Bayern Munich team to think they can bounce back and they are facing an Ajax team who simply aren't up to the level of the real elite of European Football. Ajax were also recently beaten 3-0 at PSV Eindhoven and I do worry about them when they face the very best teams.
Bayern Munich did not win their last 2 home Champions League games, but they had won their first 4 in the competition last season and all by at least two goal margins. The German Champions have been particularly dominant when it comes to home games in the Champions League Group Stage and they have tended to hammer those teams lower down the European food chain with big wins over those clubs.
Take away Manchester City and Atletico Madrid and you can see Bayern Munich have won 13 of their last 15 home Group games by at least two goal margins. It will be tough for this Ajax team to contain them I feel and I will back Bayern Munich to move into a commanding position in the Group with a solid win.
Lyon v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: One of the biggest surprises through the first round of matches in the Champions League Group Stage had to be the Lyon 1-2 win at Manchester City which has put the French side in a strong position in the Group already.
Manchester City are considered the team to beat in the Group so those points earned means Lyon will feel they have their own destiny in their hands going into the next four Champions League games.
Lyon have a very good recent home record in European competition with 7 wins in their last 10 home games. It will give them confidence against a Shakhtar Donetsk team who have lost 7 of their last 8 away Champions League games and who had to settle for a disappointing 2-2 home draw with Hoffenheim on Match Day 1.
I do think Shakhtar Donetsk are a dangerous team who have to be respected, but Lyon have been in decent form over the last month and could have beaten Nantes this past weekend if not missing a late penalty. They have been scoring goals and I think Lyon back up their win over Manchester City be securing another vital three points here which will mean they are strong favourites to make it through to the Last 16.
The strong home record in recent European games adds to my belief in the French team and I will back them to win here.
Roma v Viktoria Plzen Pick: It was something of a 'no show' from Roma in their trip to Real Madrid on Match Day 1 as they were completely outplayed, but this is the Group Stage and most will expect the Italian club to bounce back.
That 3-0 loss to Real Madrid has been a part of what can only be described as a pretty poor start to the new season for a club that reached the Champions League Semi Final a few months ago. However there have been signs Roma are about to bounce back having recorded 2 big wins at home over the last seven days in the Italian top flight.
They will be expected to make it three in a row when they face Viktoria Plzen and Roma certainly have the goals in the squad to do that. Roma have now scored at least twice in all 4 home games played in the 2018/19 season, while they have extended their run to scoring at least twice in 8 of their last 9 here.
It doesn't bode well for Viktoria Plzen who have lost 4-0 at Slavia Prague and 3-0 at Jablonec in their last couple of away games. They have looked the weakest team in the Group and blowing a 2-0 lead at home against CSKA Moscow on Match Day 1 puts Viktoria Plzen in a difficult position.
This is another step up for Viktoria Plzen and I am not sure they are going to be able to make it against a Roma team who have won their last 5 Champions League games at home. Roma did struggle to put away Qarabag last season, but they did beat Chelsea, Barcelona and Liverpool by two or more goal margins.
I will back Roma to bounce back from their defeat to Real Madrid and win a third straight home game in all competitions by two or more goals.
Paris Saint-Germain v Crvena Zvezda Pick: I don't think I was the only one who was disappointed with the level of performance Paris Saint-Germain produced in their 3-2 loss to Liverpool on Match Day 1 of the Champions League Group Stage. They looked like a team that are not going to be able to challenge the elite of European Football, but you can't dismiss them out of hand with the talent Paris Saint-Germain put onto the field in every match they play.
They have certainly shown they can dominate those teams lower down the food chain and heavy wins over the likes of Celtic and Anderlecht twelve months ago underlines that point.
I would expect Paris Saint-Germain, who have scored at least three goals in every home game they have played so far in the 2018/19 season, to be far too good for Crvena Zvezda in this early kick off on Wednesday afternoon.
The visitors are best known as Red Star Belgrade and are a former European Cup winner, but that was a long time ago and Crvena Zvezda have slipped from those standards of years gone by. Getting into the Champions League Group Stage is a huge achievement for them already and the draw with Napoli shows they can be hard to break down, although that match could have gone considerably differently if Napoli had taken the early chances they had fashioned.
Paris Saint-Germain are usually very clinical at home and so I am not anticipating them missing the same kind of opportunities as Napoli did. An early goal could see this fixture head in a similar manner as to Paris Saint-Germain's home wins over Anderlecht and Celtic in the Group Stage last season and I will back the French Champions to cover a big Asian Handicap and get this Group back on track.
Atletico Madrid v Club Brugge Pick: They may have won the Europa League last season but don't for one second believe Atletico Madrid were not embarrassed with their Group Stage exit in the Champions League. This is a team who have been very close to winning the competition over the last few years so the premature exit was a real surprise to everyone associated with the club.
They won't make the same mistakes this time around and showed that by coming from behind to beat Monaco 1-2 on Match Day 1.
However there is still something for Atletico Madrid to prove having failed to beat Qarabag in either Champions League Group game last season and so they won't be overlooking Club Brugge.
Atletico Madrid have been very good at home in Europe in general and they continue to be a tough team to break down. I think Diego Simeone will be looking to make sure they remain defensively sound in the belief that they will break down a Club Brugge team who have been a poor traveller at this level.
Scoring goals against better opposition has been a challenge for Club Brugge too and it is telling that 5 of their last 6 away defeats have come in matches they have not been able to score. Club Brugge have only scored in 1 of their last 4 away Champions League games too and I think Atletico Madrid remain the masters of the 'Win to Nil' at home and will back them to do that in this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund v Monaco Pick: Things have changed considerably for Monaco since they beat Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League Quarter Final in April 2017 in a tie that will be remembered for the blasts near the Dortmund coach which injured a couple of the players.
The Monaco team who played that Quarter Final have been broken up with key players now residing in Manchester and Paris and the poor form to open the season has to be a concern. They have already been beaten at home by Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, but the domestic form has been even more worrying as Monaco have slipped into the bottom three in France.
It is not ideal preparation for a visit to Borussia Dortmund who have been in good form to open the season.
At home they have been particularly strong with 3 straight wins and scoring at least three goals in each of those games. It is the kind of form that makes Borussia Dortmund very dangerous and I think they could overwhelm Monaco in this one and I do like the home team to win the fixture.
Covering the Asian Handicap won't be easy for Borussia Dortmund who have won 1 of their last 6 home European ties, but they are scoring plenty of goals and may be facing Monaco at the right time.
Porto v Galatasaray Pick: Group D in the Champions League looks the weakest one by some distance and I would imagine whichever two teams go through to the Last 16 won't be lasting much longer than that.
In saying that, Porto and Galatasaray won't be worrying what anyone thinks of the standard of the Group and are simply going to be fighting tooth and nail for a vital three points.
You have to give the edge to Porto in front of what is usually a loud home support and they are facing a Galatasaray team that hasn't played a lot of European Football over the last couple of years. Like many Turkish clubs, Galatasaray are also not the best travellers in Europe and they have lost their last 4 away European ties ahead of this one.
Their 3-0 home over Lokomotiv Moscow was a huge result for Galatasaray, but the challenge here is much bigger. Porto have only won 2 of their last 5 home Champions League games but both of those have come by margins of two or more goals and I think they will be able to do the same here.
I will back Porto to cover the Asian Handicap on Match Day 2.
Napoli v Liverpool Pick: This Group looked a tough one on paper when it was drawn in August, but Liverpool can take a big step towards the Last 16 of the Champions League if they can win in Naples.
Last season Liverpool showed they can be very dangerous away from home in this competition with their ability to score plenty of goals and that has to be a concern for Napoli. The last time an English side came to Naples Manchester City hit four goals in a victory in the Champions League Group Stage twelve months ago, but Liverpool can also be vulnerable defensively.
That was underlined in their 4-2 loss at Roma in the Champions League Semi Final Second Leg and Napoli have to be confident having won all 3 home games under new manager Carlo Ancelotti. Goals haven't been a problem for Napoli and this has the makings of an entertaining game with both clubs better going forward than looking to sit back and defend in numbers.
Napoli's failure to beat Crvena Zvezda on Match Day 1 has put the pressure on them to win all 3 home games in the Group if they want to try and work their way into the Last 16. That won't be lost on the manager and I think the attacking play will lead to some chances for Liverpool too and I think they can combine for a few goals in this one.
There is a feeling the Liverpool strikers are slightly out of form, but they continue to create a host of chances and both teams may in a position to help produce at least four goals on the night.
Bayer Leverkusen v AEK Larnaca Pick: In recent years Bayer Leverkusen have become a familiar name in the Champions League, but they missed out this season and have had to settle for a place in the Europa League.
This is a competition in which they could thrive if Bayer Leverkusen give it the due care and attention they should and the 2-3 win at Ludogorets on Match Day 1 suggests that may be the case.
They have not made the best start to the Bundesliga, but Bayer Leverkusen have faced both Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich already. I expect an improvement from Bayer Leverkusen going forward and they can pick up a morale boosting win on Thursday.
AEK Larnaca are unlikely to roll over for Leverkusen, but this is a team who have already been beaten by Zurich in the Group and have done well to get to this Stage of the Europa League.
They have won 2 of their last 8 away games in this competition, but those have come in the Qualifying Rounds and this should prove to be a big step up for AEK Larnaca. I expect that to show up on the scoreboard too and I will back the home team to win on the Asian Handicap.
Salzburg v Celtic Pick: Brendan Rodgers is perhaps considering his future as Celtic manager with the financial constraints on him and the players perhaps losing a little belief in his methods showing up in the results the club have been earning. Everything seems to be hard work for Celtic at the moment and confidence looks to be at a low point with the club sitting in 5th place in the Scottish Premiership.
They might be able to express themselves with some freedom in Austria as the underdog, but Celtic have lost 4 of their last 7 away European ties and the lack of goals overall is a real concern.
The point is underlined when you think of how strong Salzburg have been all season and they have gotten over the real disappointment of missing out on the Champions League Group Stage. The away goals defeat was a real upset for Salzburg considering they reached the Europa League Quarter Final last season, but this is a team that could have another big impact at this level.
Home form is critical for Salzburg and I do think they can back up the impressive 2-3 win in Leipzig from Match Day 1. The side have won 13 of their last 14 home games and scored at least twice in all but one of those games so they clearly have the firepower to do away with Celtic here.
Celtic did earn a 2-2 draw in Salzburg in the 2014/15 Europa League Group Stage, but they don't look to have enough goals to do the same this time around. I will look for the more confident Salzburg team to wear down Celtic and eventually cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Qarabag v Arsenal Pick: The Europa League may not be a top priority for English clubs over the years but Manchester United proved it is a competition that can be won and a strong way back into the Champions League.
By hook or by crook getting back into the Champions League is all important for Arsenal this season and Unai Emery has admitted he would prefer to do that by winning the Europa League than finishing in the top four. His team selection on Match Day 1 and the squad travelling to Azerbaijan has underlined the importance the manager attaches to the Europa League and he is a serial winner of the competition from his time as manager of Sevilla.
A strong Arsenal team should be good to win in Qarabag even if the home team should be respected for drawing with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League Group Stage last season. In that same section they were beaten by Roma and Chelsea with the English club running away with a dominant 0-4 win here.
Qarabag will have learnt some lessons from that defeat, but they look like a team who will struggle to deal with the speed of play Arsenal put together in the final third. Even so, Qarabag could potentially cause one or two problems of their own considering how Arsenal have yet to really fix their defensive issues despite the 7 game winning run they are enjoying.
The Gunners should have too much firepower though and can make up for their defensive shortcomings in this one. I respect Qarabag as they have rarely been blown away at home in European competition, but I do think Arsenal may have too much for them and can win by a couple of goals on the day.
Bordeaux v Kobenhavn Pick: Both Bordeaux and Kobenhavn failed to win their opening Group game in the Europa League this season which means there should be a little more pressure on the players to respond on Match Day 2.
There isn't as much between these teams as there would be between Kobenhavn and one of the stronger clubs in the French top flight, but I do still think Bordeaux should have the slight edge.
Home advantage only increases that edge and Bordeaux have been playing well here so far this season with 4 wins from their last 5 in all competitions. They might be facing Kobenhavn at the right time as the Danish club have slipped to defeat in 2 of their last 3 away games and the step up to the Europa League level is still a significant one for them.
I have to respect the fact that Kobenhavn knocked out Atalanta in the Play Off Round of the Europa League to enter the Group Stage. They battled to a goalless draw in Italy so can dig in to upset Bordeaux here, but the hosts have been scoring enough goals to think they can pick up the three points.
It may be close at times and both teams will need a bit of fortune, but I will look for Bordeaux to have home advantage tell in this one.
Zenit St Petersburg v Slavia Prague Pick: In usual weeks you could see Zenit St Petersburg and Slavia Prague being given one more day to recover from Europa League action and have their next League fixture moved to a Monday. That won't be the case this week with the international break upcoming and that raises a few more doubts as to the team selection of the managers.
There are more question marks about Zenit St Petersburg who face Krasnodar this weekend, the team currently closest to them in the Russian top flight standings. That is a big game for a club looking to return to the top of Russian Football, but Zenit St Petersburg could only force a draw on Match Day 1 of the Europa League so know the importance of winning this one too.
Zenit St Petersburg have been very good in the Europa League with 7 wins from their last 8 home games in this competition. That is plenty of reason to believe they will pick a team capable of beating a Slavia Prague team who have not travelled that well in European Football although one that did earn a surprising away draw at Villarreal last season in the Group.
I don't think Slavia Prague roll over for Zenit St Petersburg, but this is a tough place to play. They have three points on the board in the Group so there may be less pressure on Slavia Prague, but ultimately I think being at home gives Zenit St Petersburg enough of an edge to win this one.
Team news may be worth keeping an eye on, but I will back Zenit St Petersburg to win this game.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Lazio Pick: Both of these teams have made a positive start to the Europa League Group which also contains a tough Marseille team.
With wins on Match Day 1, the winner of this game between Eintracht Frankfurt and Lazio will put themselves in a commanding position to reach the Last 32 with a victory on Match Day 2.
Goals have been flowing in matches involving these teams in the last couple of weeks and that could be the case when they play one another. The win they have already earned in the Group could see the teams playing with some freedom in this one with the next three points putting them in such a strong position in the Group.
4 of the 6 away Europa League games Lazio played last season ended with three or more goals shared out and they have been scoring and conceding plenty in recent games. 5 of the last 6 Eintracht Frankfurt games have also featured at least three goals shared out and I will look for these teams to combine for that number in this one too.
Rangers v Rapid Vienna Pick: Progressing in the Europa League through to the Knock Out Rounds could be a big achievement for Rangers and a progressive development for the club in general. Steven Gerrard has made it clear he wants to do well in every competition Rangers play and the 2-2 draw in Villarreal should give them plenty of confidence going forward.
Backing it up with a home win over Rapid Vienna is the key for Rangers if they have serious ambitions of making it through and they have played well enough at Ibrox to do that.
Rangers have won 4 of their 5 home Europa League games played in the last eighteen months and the draw in Villarreal was another positive result for them. Now they face a Rapid Vienna team who have been struggling away from home in recent games and who have a poor away European record with 6 losses from their last 9 away Europa League games.
I am a little concerned that Gerrard is perhaps going to be focusing on the big League games against Hearts to come this weekend, but Rangers have been strong at home throughout 2018/19. The manager will want this to be a difficult ground for any club to visit so will be looking to keep the momentum behind his players and I do think Rangers will edge out Rapid Vienna in this one.
The Austrian side have a lot more European experience than Rangers, but they simply haven't travelled well and I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw.
Sarpsborg v Genk Pick: Sarpsborg have surprised many domestically and also would have raised some eyebrows throughout the Europa League competition by making their way through four Qualifying Rounds in their maiden European campaign. It might have taken a toll on the players though and 7 straight losses in all competitions underlines that point.
However I expect the adrenaline to be pumping from the players to the fans as they play their first home Group Stage game in the Europa League. That should give the players a boost, but it may not be enough to beat an in-form Genk team who are looking to make it two wins out of two in the Group.
Genk are still chasing Club Brugge domestically, but they have been in very good form overall and 18 wins in their last 21 games is an impressive return. It has been just as good away from home where they have won 7 of their last 8 games in all competitions and have been scoring goals for fun having racked up 26 in that 8 game unbeaten run.
They are a team experienced in Europe and who have won 5 of their last 7 away Europa League games too and I think that experience can help Genk get the better of a team who have been treading water in recent games.
I do think Sarpsborg can offer some problems being at home where they have won 3 of their 4 Europa League games. However you can't ignore the really poor form they are in and they have conceded at least twice in their last 3 home games.
With the goals Genk are scoring I will look for the visitors to win a fixture that features two or more goals.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juventus - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lyon @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roma - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 2.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Porto - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Napoli-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayer Leverkusen - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Salzburg - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bordeaux @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Eintracht Frankfurt-Lazio Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rangers - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Genk & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
September 2018: 26-24, + 3.62 Units (100 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
August 2018: 15-12, + 3.10 Units (54 Units Staked, + 5.74% Yield)
Tennis Picks 2018 (October 2nd)
The Monday Tennis Picks have produced a good start to the week and it is certainly better than last week which started so poorly before being somewhat turned around in the latter half of the week.
On Tuesday the Tennis Picks are focused on the WTA event in Beijing with the two ATP tournament matches looking tough to find an edge on this day.
There are a host of matches to be played in the three events on Tuesday so it is a busy day, but my selections can be seen below.
MY PICKS: Daria Gavrilova @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Katerina Siniakova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 2.02 Units (6 Units Staked, + 33.67% Yield)
On Tuesday the Tennis Picks are focused on the WTA event in Beijing with the two ATP tournament matches looking tough to find an edge on this day.
There are a host of matches to be played in the three events on Tuesday so it is a busy day, but my selections can be seen below.
MY PICKS: Daria Gavrilova @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Katerina Siniakova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 2.02 Units (6 Units Staked, + 33.67% Yield)
Monday, 1 October 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (October 1st)
The 2018 Tennis season may be heading into the final six weeks of the Tour, but there are still some very big tournaments to be played.
This week the events in Tokyo and Beijing have put some very good fields together and it is going to be another interesting week on the Tour.
On Monday I have researched a number of selections from the tournaments being played, and you can see 'MY PICKS' below.
MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
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