Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Sunday 13th April)

It did feel like the Semi Final was going to get away from Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, but the battling qualities on the clay courts was on display and it helped him to a competitive defeat against Carlos Alcaraz.

This may not be good news for Davidovich Fokina, but it was for the Tennis Picks with another winner on the board here in Monte Carlo.

On Sunday the tournament comes to a conclusion before important ATP events in Munich and Barcelona next week as the big names continue to get as much clay court tennis under the legs before the second Grand Slam of the season begins. The Final should be a decent match in Monte Carlo, but it is hard to look past Carlos Alcaraz to win the trophy and just underline his status as the player to beat in Paris in June.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: There have been successes at Grand Slam level, which is always most important to any player on the Tour, but Carlos Alcaraz will be pleased to end a relatively long wait for a place in the Final of an ATP 1000 event.

Winning the title on Sunday will move Carlos Alcaraz back into World Number 2 and he will certainly feel he can build momentum towards the defence of the French Open title won last year. While his main rival Jannik Sinner continues to serve a suspension, Carlos Alcaraz can build his own confidence and the Spaniard is a strong favourite to win the title in Monte Carlo.

We have not always seen his very best tennis at the tournament, but Carlos Alcaraz has played well and the Semi Final victory will have only improved his own belief.

He will be facing Lorenzo Musetti in the Final and the World Number 16 has to be respected for his ability and comfort on the red dirt. However, the Italian has had to dig very deep in the last couple of Rounds in his wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alex De Minaur and you do have to wonder if the accumulated fatigue works against Lorenzo Musetti, especially with the Final scheduled for earlier in the day than would usually be the case.

The challenge for Lorenzo Musetti is being able to serve well enough to contain the threat of Carlos Alcaraz.

In the last two wins, Musetti has faced twenty-nine Break Points and that suggests he will have some issue against Carlos Alcaraz who has won 47% of return points played this week and has broken in 42% of return games played. The issue for Alcaraz has been protecting his own serve, although Lorenzo Musetti has had his difficulties against this opponent in recent meetings.

You cannot rule out Lorenzo Musetti from making this competitive considering how well he can perform on this surface, but this feels a tough ask with the match being played without a lot of rest and recovery time.

A fast start will be needed from the Italian, but Carlos Alcaraz has looked like he has been enjoying his time here in Monte Carlo and the may just be able to get through those early moments to take control of the Final. With his returning working well so far this week, Carlos Alcaraz may just come through with a victory along with a cover of this handicap set.

MY PICK: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Monte Carlo Update: 5-1, + 3.49 Units (6 Units Staked, + 58.17% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2025- Jaron Ennis vs Eimantas Stanionis (Saturday 12th April)

When the money is as good as some of the top names in the Boxing community are earning, it is always the hardest thing to let go.

The reality is that for fighters like Joe Joyce, they are unlikely to be in a position to earn at their current levels doing anything else and that makes it that much harder to accept when your time is finished in the ring.

Even Frank Warren sounded a little nervous to commit to further fights promoting Joyce after his latest loss, but this is not a decision for Warren, but one that Joe Joyce is going to have to make himself.

He was not completely outclassed by Filip Hrgovic, but the Croatian has not exactly looked like a top level Heavyweight himself in recent outings and so you have to believe the upper echelon of the Division is now beyond the reach of Joe Joyce. Does he really want to become something of a gate-keeper at 39 years old and with the reflexes slowing down all the time? He cannot seriously believe he can become a World Champion now, even if the Titles are eventually fragmented again, and so that conversation about retirement will have to be had by those around him.

Sometimes the fighter does need to be protected from themselves, but news that Josh Warrington is making another return this week just underlines the point about how hard it is to accept limitations.

Speaking about Warrington, it did felt like something was left in the tank even after suffering a third straight loss and he may get one more big run. That seems much more unlikely for Joe Joyce and that is where people do need to have his best interests at heart.

Last weekend was a crossroads fight for Joyce and Hrgovic and the same could be said for Tim Tszyu who secured a big win after consecutive defeats in the United States. He looks in line to face Keith Thurman as he continues his rebuild, while the controversial ending to David Adeleye's win over TKV has already had the British Board request for a rematch.

Richard Torrez Jr continues his move up the Heavyweight World Rankings with a solid win on the board and it was another good week of action for fans of the sport.

We are now just two weeks away from the Chris Eubank Jr vs Conor Benn card, but there is a big rematch in British terms next weekend when Ben Whittaker and Liam Cameron meet for a second time.

However, the biggest fight left in April should be coming from Atlantic City when the WBA and IBF World Titles in the Welterweight Division are Unified.

Some may feel this is also the bout that should determine the Number 1 in the Division, but Brian Norman Jr can certainly make a challenge to that and is potentially next in line for the winner in yet another Unification.

Jaron Ennis vs Eimantas Stanionis

With Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford moved on after deciding the best in the 147 pound Division in July 2023, the Welterweights have perhaps lost some of the star appeal that has been associated with those fighting for the World Titles for years.

There had been a lot of hype around Jaron Ennis, but recent performances have raised more questions than answers.

He can make a real statement this weekend if he can Unify two of the four World Titles and the hope is that we will continue to see the Champions fight one another through the remainder of the calendar year.

Winning the Interim IBF World Title in January 2023 should have sparked the Jaron Ennis run, but he has struggled to entice a really big name in the ring with him. Two wins over Karen Chukhadzhian and further victories over Roiman Villa and David Avanesyan are not exactly going to bring Ennis to the forefront and he needs to win this fight and win well.

No one should doubt the ability of the IBF World Champion, even if some believe he has been getting hit more than he should against limited opposition. Some of that may be down to the lacklustre names in front of him, but Jaron Ennis will not have many excuses if he underperforms against an unbeaten WBA World Champion.

Eimantas Stanionis won the Regular WBA World Title in his fourteenth fight and defended it in his fifteenth, but has since been upgraded to full World Champion. The worrying part of that is that those two fights took place in April 2022 and August 2024 and inactivity has been a real issue for the 30 year old.

After the Covid pandemic, Stanionis was out twice in quick succession, but there has to be a big impact in his development that his last seven fights have been since December 2019. There is inactivity and there is inactivity and while some of it has not been the fault of the fighter, you do have to wonder how ready the Lithuanian can be for a challenge like this one.

You may look at the Jaron Ennis resume and become a little underwhelmed, but there is almost nothing on the Eimantas Stanionis resume that would have you sit up and take notice.

He has proven to be tough and Stanionis should help create an interesting fight with his come forward style, but this is likely going to end with Jaron Ennis having a chance to show off why so many believe he is the best in the Division.

We should see all of the Ennis skills as he breaks down an opponent that has not really been prepared for this kind of test, while the IBF World Champion has had two solid fights in 2024 and should be improving with the regular return to the ring.

There will be plenty of eyes on this fight, and it is one where Jaron Ennis may just grow as it develops with the American forcing a Stoppage at some stage in the second half of the contest.

MY PICKS: Jaron Ennis to Win Between 7-12 @ 5.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2025: 15-33, - 10.73 Units (58 Units Staked, - 18.50% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 12th April)

Most, not all, of the Masters events played on the ATP Tour have been extended a few days rather than played within a single week, but the Monte Carlo Masters is a rare event that sticks with the traditional format.

It does mean a fast moving tournament is into the final two days with the Semi Final matches scheduled for Saturday.

Some of the top names have been playing here this week with this being the first big step on the road to the French Open, but it is the defending Roland Garros Champion who is the highest Seed remaining in the tournament.

His opponent secured an easy win for the Tennis Picks in the Quarter Final and that has just ensured a solid bounce back after losing the first selection of the clay court season. There are still three potential Picks to be made before we can come to a conclusion on this being a positive week or not, but we are in a good position moving into Semi Final day.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina + 4.5 games v Carlos Alcaraz: The feeling was that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina would have too much clay court nous for Alexei Popyrin, but it still came as a slight surprise that he was able to win that Quarter Final without any issues at all.

The Spaniard did not face a Break Point in that win, and was able to create nine chances with three Breaks produced, but everyone on his team will be expecting a vastly tougher challenge when going up against the World Number 3.

Rafael Nadal had been the dominant clay court player in his time on the Tour and likely goes down as the greatest player on the surface, but Spanish tennis has been given a boost by the arrival of Carlos Alcaraz on the Tour. He is already a multiple time Grand Slam Champion and the World Number 3 is the defending French Open Champion, while likely going into Roland Garros as the favourite to win the title again.

However, it has not been the easiest of weeks for Carlos Alcaraz and he was given a real test in his Quarter Final win over Arthur Fils.

Players at the very elite level of tennis are always going to be looking for improvements and Carlos Alcaraz will certainly feel he can serve better than he has so far this week. His last two opponents have both created at least ten Break Points against him and that is something that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will look to exploit in his bid to earn the upset.

Of course the lower Ranked Spaniard is going to be have to be well aware of the returning power that Carlos Alcaraz has on any clay court.

It has been that aspect of his tennis that has helped him through to the Semi Final here and Alcaraz will not be overly concerned about the serve of the World Number 42, even if Davidovich Fokina is a player that can rally with just about anybody on the clay.

This is likely to be a tough match for both, much like it was when they met in Barcelona two years ago.

On that occasion Carlos Alcaraz was able to come through in two competitive sets, but both players managed to produce eleven Break Points and it was only converting four Breaks to three that helped Alcaraz to the victory.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has played well enough here in Monte Carlo to believe he can at least push the younger man again and this looks like plenty of games to be given to the former. There will be some moments where Davidovich Fokina is going to have to fend off the Carlos Alcaraz charge, but he is certainly capable of returning well enough to create opportunities of his own and ultimately that may see him cover, even in a likely losing effort.

MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Monte Carlo Update: 4-1, + 2.39 Units (5 Units Staked, + 47.80% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 11th April)

After making hard work of his Second Round win over Jordan Thompson, Stefanos Tsitsipas took all of his chances and dominated the big points in his comfortable win over Nuno Borges in the Third Round on Thursday to tick a winning selection.

We are moving into the Quarter Final Round on Friday with all four matches scheduled to be played- it was almost tempting to back Tsitsipas for a third time this week, but Lorenzo Musetti's performances have been strong enough to push back against that selection.

The feeling is that Carlos Alcaraz and Alex De Minaur will both win, but the handicap mark looks about right for both of those matches and just offers the underdog of covering, even in a losing effort.

That leaves just the one selection from the Quarter Final Round and that comes from the opening match of the day.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: Both of these players earned 'upsets' to take their place in the Monte Carlo Masters Quarter Final, although you have to believe Alejandro Davidovich Fokina would have been 'expecting' his win over Jack Draper more than Alexei Popyrin may have done when facing Casper Ruud.

The win for Popyrin deserves plenty of respect on this surface and the Australian has been using his serve to build pressure.

All three of Alexei Popyrin's wins have been in three sets and he has perhaps had a bit of fortune behind them when you think all three of his opponents actually created more Break Points in those defeats. Take nothing away from someone winning the big points to progress, but it is an unsustainable method and you do have to wonder if Popyrin could just run out of fuel in what is expected to be another tough clay court match.

His opponent has fallen down the World Rankings in recent months and comes into the tournament as the World Number 42, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is very comfortable on the clay courts. The Spaniard has also needed three sets in two of his three wins in Monte Carlo, but he has looked more convincing in his victories and that should give Davidovich Fokina some confidence to take into this Quarter Final.

The serve is not the most convincing, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is an effective return players on the surface.

This could be the key to the outcome of this match and Davidovich Fokina looks to have a considerable edge over Alexei Popyrin in that department. While not always being the player that can be trusted to produce his best on any given day, the Spaniard may still have enough here to win the match and cover this mark as the favourite.

MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Monte Carlo Update: 3-1, + 1.59 Units (4 Units Staked, + 39.75% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 10th April)

It felt like another frustrating day was in the offing at the Monte Carlo Masters, but this time fortune smiled down on the Tennis Picks with some big moments going the way of the players selected.

This was in direct contrast to the opening day and has pushed the total back into a positive number.

The first clay court Picks of the season can be difficult to judge with players adjusting to the red dirt having largely competed on the hard courts to open 2025, but we should see pretty quick improvements in the level, even at this opening Masters tournament in the run towards Roland Garros.

However, saying all that, the Third Round matches scheduled for Thursday look tough and the sole pick is going back in with the defending Champion, even if he let me down a couple of days ago.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Nuno Borges: It took a bit of time to get into his rhythm, but by the end of the Second Round win over Jordan Thompson, Stefanos Tsitsipas was motoring.

This is a venue where Stefanos Tsitsipas continues to find his best tennis and the numbers were up to where he would have wanted them to be at the end of that win over Jordan Thompson.

However, in saying that, the Greek star will be expecting a sterner challenge from Nuno Borges and that in turn means having to come out and play some of his better tennis right from the start of this Third Round match. The defending Champion will have some confidence after a decent couple of months on the Tour and ahead of this clay court part of the year, but this is a tough event and the standard of opponent is taking a big step upwards.

Nuno Borges has two wins under his belt in Monte Carlo, although he was pushed all the way in the Second Round by clay court specialist Pedro Martinez. The opening win over Holger Rune is hard to judge considering the second set retirement that was forced upon the Dane, but Borges will be playing with plenty of belief, even with some mixed results on the surface so far this season.

The World Number 43 is a solid performer on the clay, but he was beaten relatively comfortably by Stefanos Tsitsipas on this surface two years ago. While Nuno Borges has improved since then, this is still a big test on the clay courts of Monte Carlo and it may be just a little too much to ask against Stefanos Tsitsipas who loves playing here.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Monte Carlo Update: 2-1, + 0.93 Units (3 Units Staked, + 31% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 9th April)

The first clay court Tennis Pick of the season produced a frustrating result, but it is only day one and there are still two months of action to get through.

Stefanos Tsitsipas had his chances, but ultimately missed the cover by a game after missing the multiple Break Points opportunities he had in the middle of set two and beginning of set three. By the time he brought his clinical best tennis into the biggest moments, the cover was missed and the final set 6-2 win was too little, too late (for the Pick if not for his own personal record at the tournament in Monte Carlo).

The rest of the Second Round is going to be played on Wednesday and it is another very busy day in Monte Carlo.

As frustrating as it was on Tuesday, taking careful steps is the only way forward if we want to build on what has been a productive start to the 2025 season.

Two matches have made the shortlist and the selections can be read below.

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: Partnering with Marat Safin will have made the headlines, but Andrey Rublev will be much happier if it leads to a bit more consistency on the Tour. He is the World Number 9, which means a Bye through to the Second Round in Monte Carlo, but it has not been the most consistent of twelve months and Rublev is looking for answers to just turn things back around.

The form in 2025 has been feast of famine for Andrey Rublev- he has lost opening matches in Hong Kong, Indian Wells and Miami and was also beaten in the First Round at the Australian Open, but the Russian has also won a big title in Doha and had a Quarter Final and Semi Final run during the indoor hard court season in Europe.

An opening clay court match would have been tough anyway, even if Rublev is very comfortable on the surface, but that challenge is that much greater when opposed by someone like Gael Monfils. All of the support in the crowd will be with the player on the other side of the net, which is a challenge to deal with, while Gael Monfils continues to enjoy an Indian Summer with some big performances throughout 2025.

His fightback to comfortably win his First Round match will have certainly helped Gael Monfils after a couple of difficult years playing on the clay. The numbers have not been good enough on the clay in recent seasons with the Gael Monfils serve looking vulnerable, but that First Round win will improve the confidence even as he steps up his level considerably to face a top ten Ranked opponent.

Andrey Rublev, for all his troubles, continues to serve well and that will be key in working his way past the veteran home player.

Breaks have to be expected in this match on this surface, but Andrey Rublev may get his clay court season underway with a solid win over an opponent in good form. His partnership with Marat Safin will be enjoyable to watch, and the hope for Rublev is that his compatriot can just help spark his season with a solid win to open up.

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Valentin Vacherot: For the second year in a row, Valentin Vacherot represents Monaco in the Monte Carlo Masters and he is up against Grigor Dimitrov.

The 26 year old will receive plenty of support, although he is facing a popular player, but the World Number 255 has a gap in quality to bridge and that is the much bigger issue for him to deal with.

A Davis Cup win over Nuno Borges on the clay courts will have given Valentin Vacherot confidence, but the majority of the opponents he faces on the Tour are Ranked outside the top 100 and he was crushed by Damir Dzumhur last week in Bucharest.

The First Round win over Jan-Lennard Struff will help, but it is still asking a lot of Valentin Vacherot to compete with Grigor Dimitrov, even if the Bulgarian is much happier on the faster surfaces.

In saying that, it would be foolish to think that Grigor Dimitrov cannot compete on the clay courts with his positive numbers throughout his career suggesting otherwise. His First Round win over Nicolas Jarry underlines the ability of Dimitrov on the red dirt and the World Number 18 has won 66% of his matches played on the clay since the beginning of the 2022 season.

This includes a routine win over Valentin Vacherot on the clay courts of Monte Carlo twelve months ago when Grigor Dimitrov was able to find four Breaks of serve. During that match he only allowed a single Break Point to be created against his own serve and pushed through the gears through the second set to comfortably progress past the Wild Card.

Something similar could happen in this Second Round match with Grigor Dimitrov expected to be able to get on top of rallies as they develop.

Much like that match in 2024, the first set could be competitive, but that soon followed by a more routine set for Grigor Dimitrov and he can do the same here to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Monte Carlo Update: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 8th April)

Finishing the Miami Masters with a positive return wrapped up the first quarter of the tennis season and concluded the opening stint on the hard courts.

As mentioned at the time, the decision was made to wait until the Monte Carlo Masters before the opening clay court Tennis Picks of the season would be made and that was mainly so the events on the European red dirt would begin. There have been events in the United States, which always feel like clay courts that play a lot differently than those in the build up towards the French Open, while the ATP events last week were at the 250 level and they were events which would give us some early indication of the form of those much lower in the World Rankings.

The Monte Carlo Masters is perhaps not seen in the same light as Madrid and Rome in the preparation for the French Open, but a very solid field has come together this week. For many it will be the first clay court action for several months in a competitive environment, and that can lead to some early upsets, but the picturesque setting should mean fans will arrive at the tournament in as good spirits as most of the contenders.

Most of the First Round has been completed through the first two days at the event, although there are still some opening matches to be played on Tuesday. On the same day, the top Seeds join the Monte Carlo party and this should be another solid week on the Tour for those on the ATP side of the table.

Stuttgart will be the first big event for those on the WTA Tour with that 500 level event being played next week ahead of the Madrid 1000 events to round out the month. All eyes will be sharpening up towards that second Grand Slam of the season with the men's tournament looking pretty wide open and Iga Swiatek still being the player to beat in the women's event.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Jordan Thompson: The last two times these players have met on the Tour have been huge battles with both Jordan Thompson and Stefanos Tsitsipas working their way to a victory apiece. However, both were played on the hard courts and there feels like a big advantage in favour of the higher Ranked player when it comes to matches on the clay.

Furthering that advantage is this Second Round match being played in Monte Carlo where Stefanos Tsitsipas has really enjoyed his time.

His 22-3 record is one thing, but it should also be noted that Stefanos Tsitsipas has won the title in three of the last four years after returning to the event in 2021. The only exception was a Quarter Final defeat to Taylor Fritz in 2023, but the World Number 8 made up for that by winning the title in 2024 with wins over the likes of Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner on the way.

He was born in Greece and represents that nation, but Stefanos Tsitsipas is clearly very comfortable in Monte Carlo with this being his main home these days. That has been reflected in his level of performance at the event and since 2021, Tsitsipas has dominated most aspects of his tennis when playing at this Masters event.

The serve has been very strong, although the key to the successes that Stefanos Tsitsipas has had is the returning numbers with 37% of return games ending in a break of serve in his favour. Numbers on both the serve and return move even more in his favour when only considering matches against players Ranked lower than him and Stefanos Tsitsipas has to be seen as a strong favourite, even in his first match back on the clay courts.

A couple of disappointing efforts in Indian Wells and Miami may have knocked the confidence, but being back on the red dirt will really help Stefanos Tsitsipas.

His opponent has come through a First Round match, so is adjusted to the conditions, but you have to consider Jordan Thompson as a pretty poor clay courter. The Australian was beaten in his first match in Houston last week, and he had lost sixteen of seventeen clay court matches played on European soil before his First Round win.

Jordan Thompson can take confidence from that win, but his numbers have been really poor on the surface and going up against someone as comfortable on this surface as Stefanos Tsitsipas makes it hard to believe the former can be competitive.

The serve is a big weapon for Thompson on most surfaces, but that is not the case on the clay where patience is as important as power. Ultimately his return has also suffered with opponents capable of pushing him around the court and this may be a rare match against Stefanos Tsitsipas where the World Number 38 is unable to challenge the top ten player as he would like.

It is a big spread for a first match on the surface, but Stefanos Tsitsipas is capable of covering in surroundings where he has always felt right at home.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

2025 Season: 68-51, + 13.08 Units (157 Units Staked, + 8.33% Yield)