NFL Week 17 Picks 2023 (December 28-31)

With the way the calendar has fallen, there is not going to be a Monday Night Football game in Week 17 of the NFL season.

That game will be played on Saturday instead as we continue to edge towards the post-season.

Fourteen teams will be playing in the PlayOffs, but only six have been confirmed ahead of Week 17 and that means there is still so much on the line.

Only the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers have won their Division, while there are at least three teams in both the AFC South and NFC South who can still win the Division and earn the right to host a PlayOff game in January.

The picture may begin to clear up at the end of this week with a number of clinching scenarios that could be played out.

It is a busy time for families as well as sports teams and so this thread is going have a number of selections added to it over the coming days.

The updated top five after the Week 16 results can be read below before getting into the latest selections.

1) Baltimore Ravens (12-3): some believe it might have been a Super Bowl preview and the Baltimore Ravens deserve their place here following a crushing win over the San Francisco 49ers.

2) San Francisco 49ers (11-4): if there was going to be one really poor outing from Brock Purdy between now and February, the 49ers might be glad it came in a regular season game. It is also a defeat that will not prevent the 49ers from earning the Number 1 Seed in the NFC as long as they win out.

3) Detroit Lions (11-4): there is still some hope that the Lions can earn the top Seed in the NFC having secured a first Division title in thirty years.

4) Miami Dolphins (11-4): they have finally beaten a good team and the Dolphins can earn the top Seed in the AFC with back to back wins to close out the season. Doing so might make them favourites to reach the Super Bowl out of this Conference with Miami facing the Ravens and Buffalo Bills to end the regular season.

5) Philadelphia Eagles (11-4): there are still some questions for the Eagles to answer after making hard work of beating the New York Giants. However, they are back in pole position to win the NFC East, which could mean one, or potentially two home PlayOff games even if the Eagles are not able to earn the top Seed in the Conference.

New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The injury to Aaron Rodgers always looked to be a pivotal moment for the New York Jets (6-9), even if it occurred just a handful of Offensive snaps into the 2023 season. The veteran long suggested he would fight back to return if the Jets were still in the PlayOff mix in December, but elimination has been confirmed and the long-suffering fanbase will already be thinking ahead to 2024 and what might be.

Before that, the Jets have to close out the season and they have been scheduled to play the last Thursday Night Football game of the year when travelling to the Cleveland Browns (10-5).

Despite being one of just seven teams in the NFL who have won at least ten games, the Browns are still waiting to officially book PlayOff tickets. The other six double digit game winners have all been confirmed, but the Browns have been unfortunate to be playing in the same Division as the Baltimore Ravens and that likely means a PlayOff spot for Cleveland.

They will not be offering much sympathy for the New York Quarter Back issues considering the Browns have used four players in that position this season. Veteran Joe Flacco has turned back the clock in leading the team down the stretch and the Browns have the momentum having won three games in a row.

It could be argued that this is the toughest challenge for Joe Flacco since taking over at Quarter Back for the Cleveland Browns and it will be an Offensive test for the team.

For all of the problems they have endured this season, the New York Jets Defensive unit have continued to step up and play at a high level. They will not have a lot of respect for the struggling running game of the Browns, one that has been affected by the injuries to Nick Chubb and key Offensive Linemen.

That likely means all of the pressure will be on Joe Flacco to move the chains with his arm- carving up the Houston Secondary is completely different to trying to attack the Jets Secondary and that is likely going to be an issue. The veteran will be trying to get the ball out of his hands quickly, but the Browns have to be smart with the play-calling and try and lean on their own Defensive unit.

Joe Flacco will be given some room to change things at the line of play, but he has shown he has a lot more in the tank compared with Trevor Siemian or Zach Wilson.

It looks like the Jets are going to have to go with Trevor Siemian again as Wilson continues to deal with concussion issues on a short week. This is far from ideal against this Browns Defensive unit, which has been much stronger at home than on the road, and it could be another long day for the Jets on this side of the ball.

Breece Hall will be asked to try and establish the run, but it is a big ask for any Running Back when teams are happy to load the line of scrimmage knowing there is a lack of faith in the Quarter Back. The Running Back could be a bigger threat as the safety blanket coming out of the backfield for Trevor Siemian, but being behind the chains could mean big problems for the signal caller.

For starters the Offensive Line have struggled to give Trevor Siemian to target Receivers down the field and the Browns pass rush is certainly very effective at getting to the Quarter Back and stalling drives with the pass rush pressure. The Browns Secondary have also proven how tough it can be to throw against them with that pass rush pressure generated and that can be doubled for those Quarter Backs who perhaps should not be in the NFL.

It certainly will not help Trevor Siemian that he is facing a Cleveland Secondary that have loved to pick off passes as the team have won three in a row and this is where the Browns can perhaps pull away for a big win.

You have to believe 20 points could be enough for Cleveland to cover this line, but picking up short fields from turnovers may see them get up to around 28 points.

That should be good enough for Cleveland as long as Joe Flacco is able to play a largely clean game of his own and the Browns can earn their PlayOff spot in front of their own fans.

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Back to back losses to teams from the AFC East have just dropped the Dallas Cowboys (11-5) behind the Philadelphia Eagles in the race to be crowned NFC East Champions. The Number 1 Seed looks to be out of reach already, but the Cowboys will still believe that two wins to round off the regular season may still be good enough to earn the Divisional crown.

Beating the Detroit Lions (11-4), who have secured the NFC North Division after winning at the Minnesota Twins in Week 16, will go a long way to making sure the winner of the NFC East is able to at least secure the Number 2 Seed in the Conference.

The Lions may still hold out some hope that they can earn the top Seed in the Conference by winning their remaining two games. However, the main ambition for the Detroit Lions is that they can at least show they are ready to compete in the PlayOffs by performing with confidence in this Week 17 game on Saturday evening.

There is no doubting that the Dallas Cowboys have been a much more effective Offensive unit at home so you have to believe they are going to bounce back from road losses at the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. Dak Prescott and company have not played well in those games, but being back at home makes Dallas dangerous and a team to be respected.

In saying that, Dallas have a banged up Offensive Line and it might make it very difficult for Tony Pollard to establish the run against the Lions Defensive Line which has shown strength up front.

Injuries in the Secondary have left some major gaps that Dak Prescott should be able to exploit, although having a banged up Offensive Line means he is likely going to be under more pressure than he has been used to this season. The Lions have a pass rush that is capable of making big plays up front and that may see them stall a couple of Dallas drives and give the Offensive unit every chance of keeping this game very competitive.

Jared Goff, like many Quarter Backs all around the NFL, will also garner plenty of attention at the position, but Head Coach Dan Campbell has long felt the team need to run the ball efficiently if the Lions are going to have a deep PlayOff impact. In recent games the Detroit Offensive Line have ripped open big lanes for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the rookie being particularly exciting to watch, and that has helped the team stay in front of the down and distance.

They are expected to be able to run the ball right at the Dallas Cowboys in this one with the latter's Defensive Line struggling to control things up front.

This should only mean life is more comfortable for Jared Goff, especially as a strong running game could negate the power of the Dallas pass rush. It will also give the Quarter Back an opportunity to make some risk-averse throws to keep the chains moving and the Detroit Lions do have a chance to show the kind of threat they can be in the post-season.

Dan Campbell has proven to be a very good Head Coach and his Lions team are 6-3 against the spread in the last couple of seasons when set as the road underdog.

It is tough to oppose the Cowboys at home considering the dominant wins they have produced for much of the season, but injuries are hurting them. If they begin to get away from the Lions, Dallas could win by a wide margin by forcing Detroit to become a little one-dimensional and predictable.

However, the Lions look to be playing well enough to keep this within the spread set and especially with some of the sharp money coming down in favour of the road underdog.

Los Angeles Rams @ New York Giants Pick: Last year the defence of the Super Bowl crown won inside their own Stadium came to a limp end, but the Los Angeles Rams (8-7) are back in a strong position to reach the post-season. A number of changes have been made to the team that won the Super Bowl, but Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald are both still around and five wins from the last six games played means the Rams could have the momentum to be a very dangerous Wild Card team.

They are not expected to finish higher than the Number 6 Seed in the NFC Seeding, but the Rams will be focusing on trying to keep pushing as hard as they can.

Beating the New York Giants (5-10) on the road may be good enough for the Rams to officially secure their spot in the PlayOffs with the right combination of results in Week 17. That will also allow Los Angeles to not have to face a big Week 18 game against the San Francisco 49ers feeling the pressure of needing a win so the players should be focused and ready to compete.

The Giants may be ready to play spoiler, but it has been a difficult season for the team and elimination has been confirmed. They have a rematch with the much hated Philadelphia Eagles next week and there is little doubt that they may be focusing on that already.

Another Quarter Back change is being made after Tyrod Taylor sparked the team in the second half of a narrow Christmas Day loss to the aforementioned Eagles, although big plays from the Defensive unit and Special Teams made the difference for them. They will need more of that if they are going to knock off the Los Angeles Rams, but Taylor has to give them a spark Offensively for another outing.

There will be pressure on Tyrod Taylor considering the Giants match ups with this Los Angeles Rams Defensive unit.

Running the ball with a dual-threat at Quarter Back should be a little easier, but the Rams Defensive Line have been the strength of this Los Angeles team and they will believe they can limit Taylor and Saquon Barkley on the ground. There are holes in the Secondary that the Quarter Back can exploit, but the Giants are likely to be playing in obvious passing situations at times and that could see Los Angeles make some plays against this New York Offensive Line which has been banged up and struggled to give any Quarter Back time in the pocket.

Tyrod Taylor is athletic enough to extend plays, but will have to be careful about making mistakes when throwing that could give the Rams an opportunity to pull away.

Matthew Stafford and the Rams Offensive unit may need those extra possessions to ensure they can keep the Giants at arm's length and that is largely down to the improvements made by New York's Defensive unit as the regular season has drawn to a close. It is still possible to run the ball against them and this Rams Offensive Line has made life comfortable for Kyren Williams, while that balance on this side of the ball has really given the Rams some punch.

With the team establishing the run, Matthew Stafford's veteran nous at Quarter Back should mean he makes the right reads when it comes to throwing the ball. Despite the improvements, it has been possible to make some solid plays through the air against the Giants and Los Angeles can travel across the country and produce a big performance.

Motivation is not always a good indicator of how a game will be played, but it is hard to ignore the fact that this game is in a Eagles sandwich as far as the New York Giants are concerned. Even the fans are more likely to be focusing on a strong end in Week 18, which may spoil some of the Eagles chances of winning the Super Bowl and the players are on a short week.

Backing the Rams outdoors on the East Coast does not feel like a great place to be- however, they pushed the Baltimore Ravens all the way in their one loss during their last six games and the Rams could easily have won on the road that day. The hosts might not be prepared for the maximum effort and that should help the 2021 Super Bowl Champions to earn the victory and cover here.

San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Commanders Pick: A Christmas Day blowout was most unexpected for every San Francisco 49ers (11-4) fan in attendance. They were a big favourite on the night, but Brock Purdy imploded and the Baltimore Ravens made a mark, although not one that will prevent the 49ers from securing the top Seed in the NFC with two wins to round out the season.

They look in a strong position to bounce back, even in the early kick off time on Sunday, as the 49ers travel across the nation to take on the Washington Commanders (4-11) who have lost six in a row.

Big changes are going to be made in Washington at the end of this season with the likelihood the team will be searching for a new Head Coach and then a new Quarter Back. Sam Howell has not really shown he has enough to be built around and would be losing the starting role, but Jacoby Brissett is banged up and may not be able to go.

Jacoby Brissett almost led the Commanders back for a big win at the New York Jets in Week 16, but is dealing with a hamstring issue. Brian Robinson Jr is also expected to be ruled out and the Washington Offensive Line is hurt, which makes it very hard to believe that they are going to be able to get much going on this side of the ball.

With full health you could make a case for the Commanders to be able to establish the run- it is not expected to be the case on Sunday and that should mean the pressure is on the shoulders of Sam Howell. Unfortunately, the Quarter Back has shown a tendency to throw Interceptions and losing Fumbles and that should give the 49ers a chance to bounce back from the disappointing Christmas Day outcome.

A short week and travelling across the country is far from ideal, but the San Francisco 49ers look to have avoided some serious looking injuries. Trent Williams is back in practice and has proven to be a big factor in the San Francisco running successes and so it is very, very important to have him back.

With a depleted Washington Defensive Line in front of them, Christian McCaffrey and the San Francisco Offensive Line is likely going to be ripping off huge yards on the ground. It should allow Brock Purdy to just recover his rhythm after the nightmare suffered on Christmas Day, and he should be given plenty of protection to do that.

It helps the Commanders are without key personnel in the Secondary and the feeling is that we will see a big bounce back from the 49ers.

Covering this kind of number is never easy, especially on the road, but the 49ers have won four road games and all by at least 16 points so they can be backed here to recover from the Week 16 loss.

Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: The home loss to the San Francisco 49ers might cost the Philadelphia Eagles (11-4) the top Seed in the NFC, but the key right now is to win the NFC East. If the Dallas Cowboys have won on Saturday, the Eagles will be back behind their big rivals in the standings, but Philadelphia will feel they can win out and secure what would likely be the Number 2 Seed.

That will mean two home PlayOff games at the very least, while the Eagles may also have a bit more momentum to take into the post-season. Recent weeks have seen many question whether this team is good enough to return to the Super Bowl, but the Eagles themselves are confident and a three game winning run to enter the PlayOffs will certainly increase that belief.

They will be big favourites to win both remaining games, but Philadelphia will know that mistakes or over-confidence will leave the door ajar for the Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East.

First up is the Arizona Cardinals (3-12), who may still believe a couple of losses will land them the top Draft Pick in 2024.

Professionals will want to make sure they are proving they are still good enough to keep around for any rebuild though and that will mean the Cardinals refuse to roll over. However, they have lost four of their last five games and Arizona have been relatively uncompetitive in defeats to the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears.

Offensively the Cardinals should have some success as long as this game is close and they can lean on James Connor at Running Back and the legs of Quarter Back Kyler Murray. The Offensive Line have opened up some big holes for the team on the ground and they will be looking to run right at the Eagles, even if the latter have a Defensive Line that have continued to play the run pretty well.

Injuries in the Secondary should give Kyler Murray an opportunity to have some success throwing the ball, although Marquise Brown is missing and that is a big blow to this Receiving corps. Kyler Murray has been inconsistent on his return from a long recovery from injury, while he will feel some pass rush pressure when dropping back to throw. This could lead to some mistakes and Murray and company cannot afford those if they are going earn an upset.

After recent struggles, this is also a chance for the Eagles to show out Offensively and they were finding something of a rhythm in their win over the New York Giants.

Everything begins with the ability to run the ball and this looks a perfect game for the Eagles to grind it out on the ground. Jalen Hurts is perhaps not playing at 100% and that has stopped him from running the ball himself as much as usual, but the Offensive Line and the Running Backs should make plenty of hay.

Jalen Hurts will have time to locate his Receivers down the field and the expectation is that the Eagles will be able to do much of what they would like Offensively. This should see them pull away for a big win, although it does mean avoiding the kind of mistakes that allowed the Giants to recover and get much closer than they should have been in Week 16.

Everyone associated with Philadelphia will want to see things cleaned up in the final home game in the regular season and hope to see the Eagles back here either in Wild Card Weekend or, even better, the Divisional Round.

Clearing this spread will mean a strong late Defensive effort more often than not, but the Cardinals have suffered some blowout losses when the game state has forced them to throw much more than they would like. This could be the case again and the Eagles should be able to win and cover.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans Pick: Trevor Lawrence is injured and the Jacksonville Jaguars have continued to slide, which should open the door for the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans (8-7) to try and take home the AFC South Division and earn a home PlayOff game in the Wild Card Round.

However, both the Colts and Texans were beaten in Week 16 and Houston have lost three of their last five games to fail to really capitalise on the Jaguars run of defeats.

It did not help that they have been without CJ Stroud in their last couple of games, but the rookie Quarter Back has been cleared to return this week. The Texans were still able to beat the Tennessee Titans (5-10) on the road without Stroud a couple of weeks ago, but having the rookie back behind Center has to give Houston a lot more confidence with the spread back in their favour.

The feeling is that Will Levis, another rookie Quarter Back, will be able to return for the Tennessee Titans who are the only team eliminated in the AFC South. This is now a learning year for the Quarter Back and the Titans will want Levis to pick up as many snaps as possible as the season winds down.

He could have success on his return to the starting line up, although Will Levis will have to do plenty of his own work.

The Titans have consistently been a team that loves to run the ball and open up the passing lanes, but this year has been a struggle for the Offensive Line and Derrick Henry. They are also going to be facing a Texans Defensive Line that have been stout when it comes to defending the run, although Will Levis will have some spaces in the Secondary to attack.

A major problem is that the Offensive Line have struggled as much in pass protection as they have in run blocking and Will Levis is not going to have a lot of time to allow routes to develop down the field. It was a Houston Sack that injured Levis a couple of weeks ago and he will likely be facing a lot of pressure again.

CJ Stroud will sympathise with being Sacked and injured and he is going to be playing behind a shaky Offensive Line of his own, while returning from a two game absence. We have seen enough from the Quarter Back to believe he can overcome those issues, while the team were able to earn some big yards on the ground against the Titans Defensive Line in Nashville.

That will aid Stroud and he is a better Quarter Back than Davis Mills and/or Case Keenum who will be able to exploit the passing lanes that may be opened up by Devin Singletary pounding the rock. The Titans Secondary have played well enough in recent games, but this will be a different test against CJ Stroud and Houston can turn the screw in the second half to win and cover the spread.

Of course Houston are playing with more pressure knowing they are chasing the AFC South Divisional crown, but the home fans can carry them forward and the Texans should be able to complete a second win over the Titans.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: In recent years we have become used to seeing the Kansas City Chiefs (9-6) hosting the AFC Championship Game and earning the top Seed in the Conference. This time they are not going to be able to finish in that position in the final standings, but the bigger concern for the defending Super Bowl Champions is finding their lost mojo.

Four losses in their last six games means there is little momentum going into the post-season, while the players may be the ones who believe the most about the chances of Kansas City defending their crown as Champions.

Another disappointing defeat suffered in Week 16, which was played on Christmas Day, has underlined the problems the Kansas City Chiefs are having Offensively.

They will be hoping they can find some chemistry in the final home game of the season when the Chiefs host the Cincinnati Bengals (8-7) who were blown out by the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16.

Cincinnati have had two extra days to prepare for this game, but they are under pressure to finish the season with two wins. Next week they will be facing a Cleveland team that has secured a Wild Card berth at the least and who may not have a lot of motivation to play their starters, although all the Bengals can do right now is focus on winning in Week 17 and seeing how things stand after that.

The injury to Joe Burrow was supposed to have ended the Bengals season, but Jake Browning has not played badly when he has not faced the Steelers. The Quarter Back has led the Cincinnati Bengals to defeats in both games against Pittsburgh, which could be a significant tie-breaker when all is said and done in the regular season, but Jake Browning is 3-0 in the other three games started in place of Burrow.

You could argue that the inexperienced Quarter Back has only produced his best when facing the weaker Defensive units and the Steelers have shown how quickly games can get away from Jake Browning. The Kansas City Chiefs would have studied that and they look to match up pretty well with the Bengals on this side of the ball.

Despite the poor run of form overall, the Chiefs Defensive unit will feel they are playing their part in trying to make the team successful. While it has been possible to put some strong runs together against them, the Bengals Offensive Line have not been dominant up front and the Kansas City Defensive Line may be able to control the line of scrimmage and force Browning to beat them through the air.

The numbers have been solid, but Jake Browning will be facing a young, strong Kansas City Secondary who have only thrived thanks to the pass rush pressure the team can put together. Jake Browning could potentially have Ja'Marr Chase back in the Wide Receiver starting position, but he might not be grateful for some of the comments made by Chase this week and especially when he remains Questionable to play.

It will be difficult for the Bengals to move the ball with any consistency in this one, although Las Vegas showed that you do not have to do a lot Offensively to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders had 205 yards Offensively, but they were able to capitalise on mistakes made by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

This has to be the aim for the Bengals to give Jake Browning extra possessions, even if they are not able to match the Raiders and score two Defensive Touchdowns.

Isiah Pacheco is a doubt and backup Clyde Edwards-Helaire may also be missing, so there is more pressure for Patrick Mahomes and his Receivers to get onto the same page. You have to believe the Chiefs will try and find other ways to establish some sort of run game, especially with the issues in the passing game, but the Bengals are ending this season with strong play from the Defensive Line.

One-dimensional or not, Patrick Mahomes has to believe he can bounce back from a really poor Christmas Day effort.

He might have had 235 passing yards, but Mahomes threw two Interceptions and those proved to be the difference on the day. He will have spaces to exploit in the Bengals Secondary, but Patrick Mahomes will have to deal with the Cincinnati pass rush and also hope his Receivers can step up to make the plays that have been missing for the team for much of the season.

Turnovers have been a feature for the Bengals, but the last game at Arrowhead Stadium in the regular season has to see Kansas City bounce back, even on a short week.

The Defensive unit will play their part and Kansas City can avoid the mistakes that have been plaguing them.

The rivalry with the Cincinnati Bengals should motivate the home fans to get behind the players and push them into PlayOffs, albeit Wild Card Weekend rather than the Divisional Round where recent post-season runs have begun.

MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Rams - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers - 13.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Houston Texans - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)

Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

College Football Bowl Picks Part Two 2023 (December 27-January 1)

The first half of Bowl Season is over and we are into the 'bigger' Bowl Games as we make the run towards the College Football PlayOff.

Games will be added to this thread over the coming days.

Boston College Eagles vs SMU Mustangs Pick: Losses to two teams from the Big 12 had to be expected, but the SMU Mustangs (11-2) won nine games in a row to secure the American Athletic Conference. They were hoping that would have carried them into a 'bigger' Bowl Game, but the Mustangs have clearly refocused after initial disappointment on Selection Day.

Head Coach Rhett Lashlee is happy the Mustangs have an opportunity to showcase their talents to a wider audience, although they will be without Quarter Back Preston Stone. The Mustangs had to make do without their star player in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game too after Stone broke his leg, but Kevin Jennings showed he can help guide this team.

In reality the Mustangs will be leaning on their Defensive unit when facing the Boston College Eagles (6-6) who lost their last three games and are still chasing a winning record in 2023.

This Bowl Game is being played at famous Fenway Park and that should mean Boston College have plenty of fans in attendance, but they don't necessarily match up very well with the Mustangs Defensive unit.

An opportunity will be given to players that are going to be part of the team in 2024 as Boston College look to offer up some experience in a competitive environment. They have a dual-threat Quarter Back that can make things a little more awkward for the SMU Mustangs, although this is a Defensive Line that have been able to make enough plays to clamp down on the run.

It may mean we need to see more from Thomas Castellanos as a passer rather than his ability to move the chains with his legs, but the passing game has been inconsistent. There is also going to be an issue for the Quarter Back whenever he is in obvious passing situations as the Mustangs possess a pass rush that will be able to give the Boston College Offensive Line plenty of fits throughout this Bowl Game.

Interceptions have been an issue for Thomas Castellanos and it may give the Mustangs the momentum to turn short fields into big points.

The Mustangs will want to ease any pressure on Kevin Jennings at Quarter Back and they have been plenty balanced as an Offensive unit all season. While the end of the season saw SMU just have some issues in ripping off big gains on the ground, they are facing a Boston College Defensive Line that had been worn down and who struggled to stop anything.

As long as the Mustangs can get something going against this porous Defensive Line, it should mean Kevin Jennings can make enough plays through the air to push the chains forward. The Eagles Secondary have struggled, even while they have been having problems stopping the run, while the lack of pass rush pressure should be music to the ears of the SMU Quarter Back.

This should give the Mustangs the chance to win a first Bowl Game in over a decade and also end the season with a twelfth win to mach a school record.

Miami Hurricanes vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: There is one Bowl Game being played at the home of the Boston Red Sox and this is one taking place at famous Yankees Stadium. Playing in such an environment should bring out of the best of these two teams as they prepare to face one another in New York City.

The Miami Hurricanes (7-5) had a relatively disappointing season, but did secure a winning record by beating the Boston College Eagles to close out their regular season schedule. They have lost some key contributors to the Transfer Portal or to prepare for the NFL Draft, but that does mean an opportunity has been produced for those that may have a big impact in 2024.

Tyler Van Dyke has decided to leave the Hurricanes, which means they will have to play Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-6) with some inexperience at a key position. However, it may also mean the game plan is pretty comfortable for the Hurricanes who will believe they can lean on this Offensive Line to run the ball right at the Scarlet Knights.

Rutgers Defensive Line struggled to clamp down on the run at the end of the season and keeping the team in third and manageable spots will give the Hurricanes a chance of winning this Bowl Game. This should make things a touch more comfortable for Jacurri Brown, who is the only Quarter Back of note for the Hurricanes now that Van Dyke has left and Emory Williams is injured.

Inexperience is a problem for Brown who had redshirted through the regular season, but his team can make it easier by running the ball well. Jacurri Brown may also pose a threat with his legs, while he should have time in the pocket to attack the Scarlet Knights Secondary.

Having a few more Bowl practices should aid Rutgers after a poor end to the season with four losses suffered in succession to miss out on guaranteeing a winning record. Motivation to secure that winning end to the 2023 season will push Rutgers forward, as will playing in this Stadium.

Offensively this is a big test for the Scarlet Knights who struggled to run the ball down the stretch.

They do look like they could match up poorly on this side of the ball, although Miami have to deal with the fact that some of their players may be thinking ahead to the NFL Draft or what the future holds for them. Even then, Rutgers may find it more challenging to move the ball with the same kind of consistency as the Miami Hurricanes could find and so the lean is backing the team from the ACC.

Rutgers will play hard and it should be close, as the layers anticipate, but the Hurricanes can come through.

Kansas State Wildcats vs NC State Wolfpack Pick: If these schools were featuring in a 'bigger' Bowl Game, the teams may have looked a lot more similar to those that participated in the regular season. Instead, the Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) and the NC State Wolfpack (9-3) are trying to round off successful seasons with a Bowl win despite losing a host of players to the Transfer Portal or those who have begun to focus on the NFL Draft.

In games like this one, motivation is one factor, but the other is trying to work out which of the teams will look the best on the field with inexperienced players coming in to fill in for those that helped compile solid records.

The Wolfpack will be turning back to Brennan Armstrong at Quarter Back after he lost his job to MJ Morris in the regular season. The latter has decided to leave the team so Armstrong may get the call to end the season as the starter in this Bowl Game.

An ideal approach to the game will be to ease the pressure on Brennan Armstrong and that is through a strong running game- the Wolfpack should be able to move the ball on the ground against this Wildcats Defensive Line and keeping Armstrong in third and manageable would be huge for the potential success of this team.

Experience should help Brennan Armstrong when he does drop back to throw, but this Wildcats Secondary has been stronger than the Defensive Line and so the Wolfpack approach should mean they have a solid Offensive outing.

It feels like Kansas State will also be able to move the ball very well on the ground and they will be looking to do the same, although the Offensive play-calling may be designed to give Avery Johnson a chance to show what he can do at Quarter Back. He was always going to be taking over from Will Howard, who has entered the Transfer Portal, but this is Johnson's first career start at Quarter Back and he has some big expectations to fulfil.

He will be tested by this NC State Defensive unit, even if one or two of the key contributors are not taking to the field, but Avery Johnson will be looking to show what he will be able to do in 2024 for this Wildcats team.

Turnovers are likely going to be very important to the outcome of this game, but the Wildcats may have a bit more consistency coming from their Quarter Back. That may sound strange considering the lack of experience that Avery Johnson has compared with Brennan Armstrong, but Johnson has a high ceiling and he can begin his College Football career as a starter with a successful outing.

Oklahoma Sooners vs Arizona Wildcats Pick: Things are going to be changing for both the Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) and Arizona Wildcats (9-3) in 2024 with both teams leaving their current Conferences.

It has been a solid 2023 for both teams, but the fans are likely going to be looking back at the year with a different slant.

The Sooners would have been expecting to push into the College Football PlayOff and they were on course to do that during the year, but back back losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State ended those hopes. Now a number of players have left the team, including Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back who has transferred to the Oregon Ducks, and it does leave Oklahoma potentially vulnerable to the defeat.

On the other hand, Arizona fans will feel their young team massively overachieved this season and that means the majority of the players will stick together for another go in 2024. They will be moving into the Big 12 that Oklahoma are vacating, and this is a chance for the players to show what they could potentially achieve once they leave the Pac-12.

Noah Fifita has shown himself to be one of the best young Quarter Backs in College Football, although the challenges will be greater in 2024 now there is a lot more film of him on tape. It certainly helps that he is playing behind an Arizona Offensive Line that has opened up some big running lanes and they are almost certainly going to have success establishing the ground game against a much change Sooners Defensive unit.

It should make things more comfortable for Noah Fifita, who should be able to exploit the Sooners Secondary, and the Arizona Wildcats have a real chance to showcase their qualities.

The Offensive unit will always get the focus from fans, but the Wildcats have a solid Defensive unit that can only grow and improve even further going into the 2024 season.

They can certainly show their toughness at the Defensive Line where Arizona have been able to restrict teams and doing that against the Oklahoma Sooners will certainly make the Wildcats worthy favourites.

Oklahoma's Offensive Line will likely be missing a number of key starters with the NFL Draft the focus and that should help Arizona in clamping down on the run. The Sooners will always have talented younger players coming through, but it is a tough ask to fill in for some players that are going to be playing at the next level and especially in a one-off situation like they will be facing in this Bowl Game.

Jackson Arnold will be filling in at Quarter Back and there are some huge expectations on his shoulders- he will have some top Receivers lined up and Arnold has thrown a few times in the regular season.

However, if the Offensive Line is still working out how they can replace some of their top players, it may mean Jackson Arnold is under a bit more pressure than he would be hoping. He can still make some big throws against this Wildcats Secondary, but Arizona will feel they can bait the young Quarter Back into a mistake or two if they can control the line of scrimmage.

Two high-powered Offensive units, this has the makings of a very enjoyable Bowl Game, but the edge has to be given to the Wildcats and their superior experience that will take to the field. It may come down to which of these teams have the ball last to confirm a winner, but the feeling is that Arizona may want this a bit more and they can win and cover.

Friday 29th December

Kentucky Wildcats vs Clemson Tigers Pick: At the start of the 2023 season, the Clemson Tigers (8-4) would have expected to be involved in the College Football PlayOff picture. Instead they were not even able to earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game and the fans were not happy at times with the inconsistencies seen from a school that has prided themselves on being one of the top two or three teams in the nation in recent times.

Dabo Swinney even got into a heated discussion on a radio show with a Tigers fan about whether they were reaching their potential.

Motivation for this Bowl Game will be difficult to find, especially when you think Clemson would have been targeting a much bigger Bowl appearance and it is perhaps no surprise that a number of players have withdrawn. That is really going to impact the Tigers and the spread has narrowed accordingly.

It is the Defensive unit that have been hurt the most and the Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) can play without the pressure of needing to win this Bowl Game to secure a winning record. The Wildcats are also boosted by the fact that Devin Leary will start at Quarter Back and Ray Davis, who is tipped to enter the NFL, will begin at Running Back.

Teams have looked to clamp down on the run and force the Wildcats to beat them through the air, but the Tigers Defensive Line may struggle to do that against Ray Davis. The Tigers are missing key contributors at all three levels on this side of the ball and it should mean Davis is able to establish the run and keeping Devin Leary in third and manageable spots.

Devin Leary should have an opportunity to use play-action and try and attack this Clemson Secondary and the Wildcats may be able to move the chains, albeit with an idea to make sure they are winning the field position battle.

Clemson finished the season with four wins in a row and they have largely kept the Offensive unit intact for this Bowl Game, which will leaves them as favourites to win this one.

However, they will be facing a solid Kentucky Defensive unit that may match up pretty well with the Tigers on this side of the ball.

Everything begins with the Tigers being able to establish the run, but the Wildcats Defensive Line have played the run pretty well all season and that should at least give them a chance to stall drives. The Secondary have given up some big plays, so Cade Klubnik has an opportunity to end his season on a high, although he will have to be careful when it comes to throwing Interceptions.

You can understand the reason the Clemson Tigers are still favourites, but the Kentucky Wildcats could take advantage of the Tigers Defensive absentees to keep this one close. Bowl Games can be tough to read, but the line has come down from the open and backing the Wildcats with more than a Field Goal start looks the right play.

Iowa State Cyclones vs Memphis Tigers Pick: The Iowa State Cyclones (7-5) and Memphis Tigers (9-3) look like teams that will be highly motivated to finish the 2023 season on a high.

The two schools have become well accustomed to playing in Bowl Games in recent years and the future expansion of the College Football PlayOff is something that may be targeted by both the Cyclones and Tigers.

For now they will be looking to impose their own game plan on the other and the key looks to be the Iowa State Defensive unit as they look to clamp down on the Memphis Offense that has proven to be a big part of the Tigers success.

The Tigers have thrown the ball very well all season, but they have not faced a team like the Iowa State Cyclones too often. The Cyclones Defensive Line will be looking to clamp down on the run and try and force Memphis to become one-dimensional, while throwing into this Secondary comes with the danger of loading up on the turnover numbers.

Seth Henigan will be confident at Quarter Back, and his numbers give him every right to believe he can attack this Secondary, but Interceptions have been an issue.

Turning the ball over and losing those possessions will really hurt the Tigers who have been set as a considerable underdog and that is because they may find it very difficult to stop what is expected to be a balanced Iowa State Offense.

Even though the top Running Backs are no longer with the Cyclones, the Offensive Line have prided themselves on cracking open with lanes on the ground. That was proven in the final regular season game when Abu Sama III came into the starting line up at Running Back and put up 276 yards on the ground.

The Cyclones Offensive Line are expected to have their way with the Tigers Defensive Line and that should mean they in third and manageable situations for much of this Bowl Game. Abu Sama III might even be able to rip off some big gains on his own and pile up the numbers again, and that should help Rocco Becht at Quarter Back.

He will be well protected and Rocco Becht has to be given credit for looking after the ball when he has been asked to throw- that will be important against this Tigers Secondary that has allowed plenty of passing yards, but who have used Interceptions to turn the tide.

Much will depend on how well the Memphis Tigers can impose themselves on the Iowa State Defense, but even then it feels like the Cyclones have an edge.

Ultimately they may win the turnover battle and that can see the Cyclones pull clear for a big win and a cover of this Bowl Game.

Monday 1st January

Michigan Wolverines vs Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: The College Football PlayOff selection came with a lot of scrutiny and ultimately controversy when the final four teams were selected. Leaving out an unbeaten Power 5 Conference Champion will still be a talking point when the PlayOff begins, although the Florida State Seminoles blowout loss to the Georgia Bulldogs may have the Committee feeling justified in their final selection.

The Michigan Wolverines (13-0) will feel they have done more than enough to deserve their spot in the PlayOff for another season as an unbeaten Champion that has knocked off the likes of the Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes. A crushing win over the Iowa Hawkeyes secured the Big Ten Championship, but the Wolverines will still head to Pasadena knowing there is a lot to prove.

They will begin as narrow favourites against SEC Champions Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) who forced their way into the top four with a win over the Georgia Bulldogs to take home a Conference Championship. Leaving out the SEC Champion was the big challenge that the Committee had been set when picking their final four teams for the PlayOffs, but they felt the Crimson Tide body of work, and health of the team, deserved a place in the top four.

Losing to the Texas Longhorns at home should have been difficult to overcome, but Alabama have put a strong winning run together and the loss was given a bit more importance after the Longhorns won the Big 12 Championship. Now Head Coach Nick Saban will have had plenty of time to put together a strong game plan to tackle the Wolverines and the layers are taking no real chances with this Rose Bowl PlayOff Semi Final.

They may not be the same Defensive unit of years gone by, but Alabama have improved as the season has gone on. This is going to be the challenge for the Michigan Wolverines Offensively, especially as Michigan struggled to really show off on this side of the ball as the competition intensified.

Running the ball with Blake Corum will be the main ambition of the Wolverines, but the line of scrimmage has not been controlled as well as Michigan would have expected. There has been some room against this Alabama Defensive Line, but not a lot, and so the pressure may be on JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back.

There was a point in the season when McCarthy had his name linked with the Heisman, but he has certainly been more of a game manager down the stretch. That may be all that Michigan expect from him in this College Football PlayOff, and especially if he is being asked to throw from third and long spots on the field, but it also means the numbers are not going to be very eye-catching.

Michigan will just want to make sure they are able to win the field battle and that means avoiding the turnovers that could be key to the entire outcome of the game.

The reality is this game is likely to be decided when Alabama have the ball.

After a rough start, Jalen Milroe has stepped up to become the Quarter Back that the Crimson Tide would have wanted and he has made some memorable plays, none more so than the pass that broke the Auburn Tigers at the end of the Iron Bowl.

The Crimson Tide's Offensive Line is big and strong, as has become common in Alabama, but the strength of the Michigan Defensive unit has been at the line of scrimmage. This is going to be a monumental battle with each team trying to impose their will on the other and will determine how this game plays out.

Getting in front of the chains would be huge, but Alabama have to be a little more confident in their Quarter Back making the plays through the air that may give the SEC Champions an edge.

The Wolverines pass rush will be a problem, but the Secondary have allowed one or two big plays to be made against them and Jalen Milroe is playing with the confidence to exploit any holes.

And for all of their successes in recent years, Michigan have struggled to really perform when it comes to the College Football PlayOff, which may indicate something against the Coaching with extra time to prepare. On the other hand, Alabama have been really good at making sure they get into the National Championship Game from this position and the feeling is that Nick Saban will out-think Jim Harbaugh in a big game.

Nothing will come easy for either Offensive unit, but Jalen Milroe may have a bit more than JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back and that can push Alabama through at the expense of Michigan.

Washington Huskies vs Texas Longhorns Pick: The Sugar Bowl features the last Pac-12 Champion, for now at least, and the Big 12 Champion and the Washington Huskies (13-0) have to be motivated having been set as a considerable underdog. That will bother the team, especially as they have continued to upset the odds, most notably when beating the Oregon Ducks in the regular season and in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

This is the situation for the Huskies again when facing the Texas Longhorns (12-1) who have overcome their one defeat to the Oklahoma Sooners to go on and win the Big 12 Championship in their last season in the Conference. Their win over the Alabama Crimson Tide on the road was always going to give the Longhorns an opportunity to earn their spot in the College Football PlayOff and many will feel a repeat of that game from the regular season will be played in the National Championship Game.

Both teams will be in the same SEC next season, but the Longhorns will make a mistake if they overlook Washington, who are better than the sum of their parts.

Michael Penix Jr leads the way for the Huskies and he was a Heisman Finalist so the Quarter Back will be tasked with leading Washington to the National Championship Game. Last year it was TCU from the Big 12 who upset their way into that Game, but Washington will certainly feel they can do that this time around.

Running the ball opens up the passing lanes for the Huskies, but running the ball against this Texas Defensive Line will be anything but easy. Both teams will feel they have the dominant unit at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball, and it is certainly going to be very important in determining the outcome of the game.

Establishing the run will be key, but the Offensive Line will certainly feel they can still offer Michael Penix Jr time in the pocket to make his plays down the field. The protection should hold up for the Quarter Back and this Longhorns Secondary have had one or two holes exploited when teams have stepped back to throw.

However, Penix Jr is also going to have to be aware of the tendency of the Texas Defensive Backs to anticipate throws and jump in front of those passes. Turnovers are key in every American Football game, but it feels very important for the Huskies to avoid losing the turnover battle against this Longhorns team.

Earning extra possessions will certainly give the Longhorns a serious edge and they have certainly been good enough Offensively to challenge this Washington team. The Huskies have to be respected for the unbeaten record, but the Defensive unit have not been nearly as strong as their Offense.

Quinn Ewers is back at Quarter Back and Jonathan Brooks has been one of the top Running Backs in College Football and these two players have certainly provided Texas with the kind of balance that will make them tough to stop. Picking up short fields from turnovers will make it very tough to slow down the Longhorns and the feeling is that this could be a hard day in the office for the Huskies.

The Longhorns Offensive Line should dictate the terms at the line of scrimmage and Brooks will likely keep Texas in front of the chains.

This should mean Quinn Ewers has a bit more time in the pocket to attack this Washington Secondary that have allowed considerable yards through the air. Much like Texas, the Huskies have a Secondary that may bend, but will turn the ball over with aggressive play from the Defensive Backs and avoiding those will be very much on the mind of Ewers at Quarter Back.

You have to really believe that turnovers are going to dictate the outcome of this Sugar Bowl and decide which of these teams is able to play in the National Championship Game.

It is a big spread and opposing the Huskies in the Pac-12 Championship Game was not a very good idea as they dominated on the day.

However, Washington have been involved in a lot of tight wins and you have to believe that eventually that will catch up with them.

The Longhorns have the balance Offensively and the strength on the Defensive Line to earn enough of an edge to not only win this game, but cover as they look to earn a spot in the National Championship Game. It should be a lot of fun to watch on New Year's Day, but the Longhorns look the team to back in the Sugar Bowl.

MY PICKS: SMU Mustangs - 12.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Kansas State Wildcats - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Arizona Wildcats - 2 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Kentucky Wildcats + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Iowa State Cyclones - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

Bowl Part Two Update: 3-3, - 0.37 Units (6 Units Staked, - 6.17% Yield)

Bowl Part One: 4-6, - 2.71 Units (10 Units Staked, - 27.10% Yield)

Week 14: 3-3, - 0.31 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.17% Yield)

Week 13: 8-5, + 1.90 Units (13 Units Staked, + 14.62% Yield)

Week 12: 6-4, + 1.25 Units (10 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)

Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)

Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)

Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- Day of Reckoning (December 23rd)

It has already been a quality month of Boxing, but the card that has been put together by Saudi Arabia and led by Frank Warren has plenty of star power attached to it.

Eddie Hearn will also be in Riyadh for the 'Day of Reckoning' with the likes of Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder headlining separate events. There is every hope that a win each would mean we have a fight between the two that has been long in the making and potentially landing in the first quarter of the 2024 season.

Plenty of other big name Heavyweights and also the leading Cruiserweight and, arguably, the leading Light Heavyweight will also be showcased on this card just two days before Christmas.

Earlier this month, Devin Haney really showed what he is about by shutting out Regis Prograis after knocking down the Light-Welterweight World Champion before a wide, wide Decision on the cards.

That is huge news for Haney who continues to look like a fighter that can move even higher in the weight Divisions.

Most exciting is that Devin Haney is willing to make the big fights and there looks to be some really good looking bouts involving the American over the next couple of years.

He looks special and will move into the Pound for Pound Rankings, but Bam Rodriguez arguably impressed even more when Stopping Sunny Edwards.

Bam is going to be moving up the weight Divisions and is chasing a fight with Juan Francisco Estrada after the superb all around performance in beating Edwards. He is another that is still young enough to grow further and perhaps even become a three or four weight World Champion and the statement win on Saturday will mean plenty are going to be watching his career with real interest.

It has been a really good year for the Boxing fans around the globe with some quality fights, although my Picks have not been able to have the successes of 2022.

That is a disappointment, but there are two more cards to come before the end of the season and there are already some really good looking nights on the schedule in January and February.

As fans, we have to be excited by what is to come and the hope is that there are some seriously good fights yet to be announced- we may have news as soon as the 'Day of Reckoning' is in the books and it should be another fun year for all to enjoy.

One fight we are not expecting to get over the line is the Conor Benn vs Chris Eubank Jr one that had been rumoured for Saturday 3rd February- I expect that to be revisited later in the year if Benn can finally clear his issues with the British Board, but for now both will move in different directions and Benn's next fight is expected to be announced imminently as he looks to get out on that date anyway.

Day of Reckoning- Anthony Joshua vs Otto Wallin/Deontay Wilder vs Joseph Parker

The money has been lined up to put this stacked card together in Saudi Arabia, although the excitement of seeing so many big names on the same bill has perhaps overshadowed the match making.

In reality this is the fight before THE fight for a lot of the favourites on show in Riyadh.

The headliner and expected main event is Anthony Joshua who has made good on his promise to become more active this year after back to back losses to Oleksandr Usyk. This will be the third time he has been in the ring since April and it should only help improve him as a fighter, while also rebuilding what may believe is shattered confidence.

Being 'gun shy' in the Heavyweight Division is a recipe for disaster, but Anthony Joshua has gone to work with Ben Davison and this is expected to help him uncork a few more combinations. The talk is that he will head back to Texas to work with Derrick James, but the Davison link up is interesting.

Tyson Fury's former Head Trainer, Ben Davison was let go after the close win over Otto Wallin when he was heavily criticised by John Fury. He had some decent work put together with Fury and Ben Davison has also been pretty important for other big name British Boxers.

Having that insight into Wallin should help and Anthony Joshua is expected to be well prepared, although will need to be better than he was against Robert Helenius.

It was a brutal Knock Out, but Otto Wallin is not nearly as shop-worn as Helenius. He has won six in a row since the loss to Fury, when his stock rose significantly, and the Swede is a big Southpaw, which is going to be a tough test for the former Heavyweight Champion.

At the same it should be noted that Wallin has not nearly built on the performance against Fury in the manner expected- his best wins since that defeat are against Dominic Breazeale (UD) and Murat Gassiev (SD), but this is a considerable step up.

Otto Wallin has shown he has decent fundamentals, but the feeling is that he lacks top level power and may not be able to test the Anthony Joshua chin much more than Jermaine Franklin and Robert Helenius.

The Southpaw stance will cause some problems, but Joshua might be able to get into a position where his combinations can be unleashed. The power is still there when he throws and Anthony Joshua looks like he could make a real statement on this Day of Reckoning by forcing a Stoppage of a potential banana skin of an opponent.

The chief support is supplied by Deontay Wilder who faces Joseph Parker, a meeting between two former Heavyweight Champions who could put three of the four World Titles on the line if they had come together for a Unification in 2019. Instead it was Anthony Joshua who took on Parker and beat him to Unify, but both Wilder and Parker have spoken about the excitement of finally being able to lock horns.

Back in March 2018, both Anthony Joshua and Joseph Parker were unbeaten World Champions and the latter became the first to complete all Twelve Rounds against AJ. He still lost on the day, but Parker has continued to be in and around the UK scene, while getting closer to another World Title shot.

Ultimately he has come short thanks to losses to Dillian Whyte and Joe Joyce and there is still the feeling that he 'lacks the mongrel' to really take on the best.

There are attributes to respect- Joseph Parker is athletic and quick and has decent pop, but his three wins since being Stopped by Joe Joyce have been against middle of the road Heavyweights.

Now he takes on one of the best.

Deontay Wilder's inactivity is perhaps the biggest worry, although the power of that right hand will still be very much active.

One Round in over two years cannot be good for anyone though and you have to believe Joseph Parker will offer a bit more than Robert Helenius who was wiped out just before the end of the First Round by the American former WBC World Champion.

There is still talk about becoming Undisputed, but that is a long way away for Deontay Wilder and especially with some of the Belts expected to fracture once the Tyson Fury-Oleksandr Usyk fight on 17th February is completed. At 38 years old, time is not on the side of Deontay Wilder and instead the focus might be on targeting a massive payday against Anthony Joshua.

Rumours are that a fight between the two has been agreed as long as both come out of the Day of Reckoning with another win on the resume.

Andy Lee will devise a strong game plan for Joseph Parker and Tyson Fury will have given him some insight- what cannot be denied is that Deontay Wilder got to Fury a number of times across their three fights, and the question is whether Parker has the same power of recovery.

It feels like that time might have gone for the New Zealander who has been put down by Whyte, Chisora and down for good by Joe Joyce. Deontay Wilder sets up his right hand well enough to believe he will be able to find the shot or two he needs and Joseph Parker may no longer have the kind of resistance needed to push the American as deep into this fight as he would be targeting.

It is a Heavyweight night in Saudi Arabia right up and down the card.

One of the Super-Heavyweights making noise in the lead up to the Day of Reckoning is Jarrell Miller who takes on Daniel Dubois in a fascinating clash.

In another universe Miller has not made the mistakes and poor decisions that saw a potential home fight with Anthony Joshua fall apart and perhaps it was him, not Andy Ruiz Jr, who caused a monster upset in June 2019. In our world, Jarrell Miller is rightly criticised for the failed drugs tests that led to a ban from the sport, although Boxing will sweep issues under the carpet when it comes to chasing the cash.

There is little doubt that Miller is an excellent character for those looking for a soundbite, and he has been very good at that during this run towards December 23rd. However, the American is a significant underdog in this fight with Daniel Dubois, even if the confidence is seeping out of every pore and every time Jarrell Miller speaks.

The two defeats suffered by Daniel Dubois has aided that confidence- losing to Joe Joyce and Oleksandr Usyk is no disgrace for a relatively young Heavyweight, but a perception that Dubois 'quit' in both losses is much harder to shake.

The feeling about the bout is that Daniel Dubois has plenty of punch power and speed that makes him very dangerous early... However, what is he going to do if this huge American is still standing after Six Rounds and still plodding forward throwing his punches in bunches?

Jarrell Miller is not the biggest hitter, but he throws a lot and wears down opponents mentally and physically.

Not to be that guy, but I am unsure what the testing procedures have been for this event that was announced in a pretty small window.

Since returning from his ban, Jarrell Miller has not really impressed, although he has banked some Rounds. The Sixth Round win over Lucas Browne last April is nothing to write home about, but Miller has shown durability and he will need all of that in this fight.

It is early when Daniel Dubois will have the majority of his success- only one of his victories has come beyond the Fifth Round, while both of his losses have been late in those fights with Joyce and Usyk. He might be winning early, but Dubois is going to have to show something that he has not before and this looks like potentially being the one big upset on a card stacked with favourites.

This is a expected to be scheduled as a Ten Rounder, so it is possible that Dubois can bank enough Rounds early on to win this one even if it gets to the cards.

What has to be shown is the ability to handle the pressure and being able to ignore the negativity of when a fight is going against him- you know Jarrell Miller will bring as much mental pressure as physical pressure, and a small interest in the New Yorker to come through with an important win has to be taken.

Some were surprised that Jarrell Miller would get the call on such a big card after his previous issues, but Mark de Mori being asked to fight Filip Hrgovic really came out of left field.

The last most would have seen of de Mori is losing to David Haye in the First Round in January 2016.

He has won all eleven fights since that defeat, but those have been against much lower level than facing someone like Hrgovic who will have World Title ambitions.

Filip Hrgovic can be something of a slow starter, but Mark de Mori has openly stated that he is going to come forward and try and make this a fight and that can only be bad news.

There are two other Heavyweight bouts on this deep card and one that is perhaps more intriguing than the other.

Arslanbek Makhmudov is going to be well supported in Saudi Arabia, but Agit Kabayel will also have plenty backing him.

Both are unbeaten and will be looking to push on for a World Title shot in 2024 once the Belts fracture after February 17th.

The feeling is that Kabayel has not really kicked on his career as he should have and he has been relatively inactive. He might try and move and frustrate the big Russian, but the expectation is that Arslanbek Makhmudov will test the Agit Kabayel chin pretty early.

Most have not been able to stand up to that power and the man with seventeen Stoppages in eighteen wins can secure another relatively early ending to the work.

Frank Sanchez is expected to have too much for Junior Fa who has lost to Joseph Parker and Lucas Browne when stepping up his level of competition.

The loss to Browne was really stunning and this looks a match up in which Cuban Flash can impress.

A couple of British fighters have been afforded a big opportunity to take on arguably the best in class in their respective Divisions.

While this is a Heavyweight loaded card, both Dmitry Bivol and Jai Opetaia are also defending their Light Heavyweight and Cruiserweight World Titles.

Most would accept that Opetaia is the man to beat at Cruiserweight, but Dmitry Bivol needs to get business sorted with the winner of the Artur Beterbiev-Callum Smith fight to prove he is the man at Light Heavyweight.

Dmitry Bivol should have too much for Lyndon Arthur, although the question marks are around the fact that the World Champion has not been in the ring for thirteen months.

He has been dealing with injury and Dmitry Bivol can sometimes coast to an easy Decision, but Lyndon Arthur has looked a little worn down at times in recent fights.

Anthony Yarde Stopped him and other opponents have hurt him, which is a problem for the British fighter and Bivol can force an end before needing the judges to determine the winner.

If the feeling is that Lyndon Arthur is stepping up, it is certainly the case for Ellis Zorro.

He is unbeaten in seventeen, but Ellis Zorro has never been in with anyone of this level and the lack of Stoppages on the record is massive concern against someone like Jai Opetaia.

The latter crushed Jordan Thompson in Four Rounds to take that unbeaten record from a British fighter and Jai Opetaia is expected to have his own way in this one.

A vicious puncher, this is a good chance for Opetaia to just remind all that he is still the man to see in the Cruiserweight Division, even after being ridiculously forced to drop his IBF World Title by agreeing to head to Riyadh for this bout.

MY PICKS: Anthony Joshua to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.62 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Deontay Wilder to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.37 William Hill (2 Units)

Jarrell Miller @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Filip Hrgovic to Win Between 1-2 @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Arslanbek Makhmudov to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Frank Sanchez to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)

Dmitry Bivol to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jai Opetaia to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 58-107, - 41.33 Units (305 Units Staked, - 13.55% Yield)