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Saturday, 6 January 2018

Tennis Picks 2018 (January 6th)

It would have been an incredibly frustrating week if Andrey Rublev had not managed to win his Semi Final against Guido Pella on Friday, but ultimately it has still be a tough week.

The first week of the new tennis season can be tough to really get a read on and there are usually a number of upsets. That has shown up so far this week with some of the names that have reached the business end of the events, while the big names are all about getting ready for Melbourne and the Australian Open.

This week could have been worse, but I was hoping for a little more breaks when the big points came along, but that has ultimately not been the case.

Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: The best Semi Final to be played on Saturday comes at the ATP Brisbane event between Grigor Dimitrov and Nick Kyrgios. Both players have plenty of fans who wish they can fulfil the talent they have, but it will be interesting which one is going to make their breakthrough at the Grand Slam level first.

Both Dimitrov and Kyrgios have had solid showings in the Slams before, but they have the kind of talent that has seen them both tipped to be Slam Winners.

I am still not convinced about Dimitrov because he can produce some sloppy moments, but his performance at the ATP Finals will have given him a boost in confidence. The Bulgarian has had to work hard to win his two matches so far this week, but Nick Kyrgios also has had a couple of long matches on his return from injury.

The Australian may not have a lot of good press, but his charisma certainly brings eyes onto the court for his matches. Kyrgios has a big all around game, but mentally there is plenty of room for improvement although I do think that will come with maturity as he understands what he wants from his tennis career.

While having a couple of good wins, I do think Kyrgios is still not quite up to full speed after making a return from an injury that ended in his 2017 season. At the moment Dimitrov is perhaps playing at almost his top level and I think he will make it 3-0 in the head to head against Kyrgios with a narrow 7-6, 6-4 win on Saturday.

Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Gilles Simon: I was worried about the head to head between Marin Cilic and Gilles Simon when picking the Croatian to win their Semi Final. After dominating the first set I didn't feel so bad, but Cilic fell apart in the second two sets and that has seen the Frenchman through to the Final in Pune.

However it can't be ignored that Simon has clearly slipped from the player he was and he is not able to defend his serve as well as he once could. The World Ranking may improve at the end of this week, but this time he is facing Kevin Anderson who has beaten him in all three previous professional matches.

Th big South African is back up to Number 14 in the World Rankings thanks to a really good US Open when reaching the Final back in September. Anderson came into 2017 with a few injury issues, but he looks much healthier this season and he has come through three matches to reach the Final.

Anderson needed to rally to beat Benoit Paire on Friday, but he should have enough energy to produce his best tennis in this Final. The big serve makes it a little easier for Anderson to at least shorten points and I expect Anderson to really get his teeth into the Simon service games which can give him every chance to win and cover.

I do think Anderson will have enough chances to do that and it is all about continuing to produce the big time serves to set up plenty of short balls to put away. I just don't think Simon defends as well as he once did, and while Anderson is not the best returner on the Tour, he has been returning well enough this week to earn a 6-4, 6-4 win.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-6, - 8.52 Units (16 Units Staked, - 53.25% Yield)

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