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Wednesday, 8 July 2015

Wimbledon Day 9 Picks 2015 (July 8th)

The favourites in both the men's and women's events at Wimbledon barely survived being knocked out on Tuesday as both Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic were pushed the distance in their matches. Both showed why they are the Champions they are by coming back from behind to win and maintain their position at the top of the market.

Novak Djokovic was actually completing a Fourth Round match against Kevin Anderson on Tuesday, a match that ended on Monday night with the Serb having come from 2-0 down in sets to level the match before the bad light suspended play. He had to dig deep on Tuesday in the final set to hold off the big South African and will be back out on court on Wednesday afternoon to take on Marin Cilic in the Quarter Final.

On the other hand, Serena Williams moved into the Semi Final and another step closer to adding the third Grand Slam of the 2015 season to her trophy cabinet. Williams will meet Maria Sharapova in a blockbuster Semi Final on Thursday, while a personal favourite Garbine Muguruza takes on Agnieszka Radwanska in the second Semi Final.

The winner of the Williams-Sharapova Semi Final will be a big favourite to go on and win the title on Sunday, but I wouldn't rule out Muguruza who looks to have gotten a feel for the grass over the last few days.

Wimbledon has regularly been a tournament that I have failed to win tickets for through the ballet and this year was no different- however, I have been fortunate enough to land with tickets for the second time in three days as I will be heading back to Centre Court for the men's Quarter Finals on Wednesday. Manic Monday was a pretty decent order of play and while I may like the two matches that are set for Court One, I am not sure how much play will be possible on that court until the late afternoon.

The roof is very likely to employed on Centre Court and that might mean the Richard Gasquet-Stan Wawrinka match is shifted over unless Roger Federer is in the same imperious form he has been showing through the tournament so far.

Andy Murray - 7.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: You can only give Vasek Pospisil some real credit for the battling displays he has produced at Wimbledon to move into a maiden Grand Slam Quarter Final. Nothing has come easy for Pospisil in this fortnight as he has had to win 3 of his 4 matches in five sets and needed four sets to win the other.

Add to that the time he has spent on the Doubles court and there has to be some fatigue in the Canadian's legs as he gets ready to face home favourite Andy Murray. Vasek Pospisil had to come from two sets down to beat Victor Troicki on Monday and then had to play a five set match in the Doubles draw and Murray has been open in saying he will look to take advantage of any fatigue.

With the weather as it is, Murray has the chance to keep his tournament on track being first up on Centre Court. His shoulder might not be at 100%, while the second serve remains a real liability, but Murray has had the better of Pospisil in their past meetings and I would expect him to do the same again.

His return of serve will mean that Pospisil is likely going to have to play more balls than he would be used to against other opponents and Murray is unlikely to let him back in as other players have. Murray was returning the ball very well against Karlovic and would expect to have the better of the extended rallies from the back of the court.

As long as Murray can get a decent percentage of first serves in play, I would expect he finds a way to win this one 75, 62, 64.

Roger Federer - 6.5 games v Gilles Simon: It wasn't as big a surprise as you may think when Gilles Simon beat Tomas Berdych in the Fourth Round on Monday, even if I thought the Czech player would get through. What was surprising was how easy Simon had it against a player that had been in decent form and his run at Wimbledon has underlined a strong grass court season and perhaps earned Simon a place in the French Davis Cup team.

A Semi Final at Queens and Quarter Final in Nottingham shows that Simon has been very comfortable on the grass this summer, while his four wins at Wimbledon have come in impressive fashion. Simon also has previous against Roger Federer with the majority of their previous matches being very close including a 76, 76 win for Federer in Shanghai last year.

They have met at the Australian Open and French Open in the past and both of those matches needed Roger Federer to go through five sets before moving past Simon. However, I would consider Wimbledon and the US Open as Federer's favourite Slams and I think this might be one of the more routine wins for the seven time former winner here.

Simon's big strength is his consistency from the back of the court and making sure he gets plenty of balls back in play, but Federer has been in sublime form. You would expect Federer to get some chances on the Frenchman's serve and it is a matter of making sure he continues to look after his own serve.

I'd be surprised if we see a straight sets win for Federer in this one, but I do think he comes through with some wide margins in the sets and I look for a 61, 36, 63, 64 win for the Swiss man.

Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Marin Cilic: He might have had to wait another day before booking his place in the Quarter Final, but Novak Djokovic might be able to go from strength to strength having survived the five set match with Kevin Anderson. It wasn't the longest five set match in the world so I don't foresee too many physical issues for Djokovic, while it is not like Marin Cilic hasn't had to dig deep through the tournament.

Injury has prevented Cilic from really kicking on from winning his maiden Grand Slam at the US Open last September, and he has needed at least four sets to win each of his last three matches. Cilic has just struggled for the consistency and big hitting he showed at Flushing Meadows last year and it will need a big effort for Cilic to even come as close to the upset over Djokovic as he was twelve months ago.

On that occasion, Cilic was leading 2-1 in sets in the Quarter Final at Wimbledon before falling apart in the final two sets to be knocked out by Djokovic and have a tenth straight loss to him. He has lost the next two matches to Djokovic and Cilic has now won just nine games in his last six sets against the World Number 1.

The Cilic game is still not at the level that he would want and this is clearly the toughest challenge he has had all week, yet the Croatian hasn't been comfortable since the First Round. You have to think Djokovic will be able to get enough returns of serve into play to find the weaknesses in the Cilic game, while the Serb has been serving well all week.

Maintaining that should help him come through this match with a comfortable looking 64, 63, 64 win.

Richard Gasquet-Stan Wawrinka Over 40.5 Total Games: If you love the single handed backhand, you are going to be in for a treat on Court One as Richard Gasquet takes on Stan Wawrinka in this Quarter Final. I think it would be hard to argue against these two possessing the best single handers on the ATP Tour and I think this is going to be an absolutely fantastic Quarter Final.

It is hard to separate the two- both have been in very good form at Wimbledon, although I think Gasquet has the better grass court pedigree. However, you would also have to think that Stan Wawrinka is in a great place mentally as he looks to back up his French Open win by becoming the first player in five years to win both Grand Slams in Paris and London.

There is still a tough road for Wawrinka to overcome if he is going to be able to do that and I really don't think beating Gasquet is as straight-forward as some might. The Frenchman is playing himself into contention to play for France in the Davis Cup tie against Great Britain next week and Gasquet's wins are arguably the more impressive of the two.

When they met at the French Open two years ago, it took an epic fifth set decider to determine whether Gasquet or Wawrinka would move through. I think we will see at least four competitive sets between them on Wednesday in a fascinating match, while also thinking there is every chance these two need to go the distance to again separate them and move into the Semi Final.

This will be a great watch and looks the best of the Quarter Final matches on paper and I would be stunned if either player is able to dominate it and win in straight sets. With the way both have been serving over their first four matches, you have to think it will be a tight match that might see at least one tie-breaker and I fancy this one to go over the total games expected.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 7.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet-Stan Wawrinka Over 40.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 19-22, - 8.07 Units (81 Units Staked, - 9.96% Yield)

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