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Friday, 10 July 2015

Wimbledon Day 12 Picks 2015: Women's Final Serena Williams v Garbine Muguruza (July 11th)

Before I go on to talk about the Ladies Final to be played at Wimbledon on Saturday, I have to mention the two men's Semi Finals which has left us with a repeat of the Final from last year.

While Novak Djokovic managed to come through a difficult first set before taking control against Richard Gasquet, Roger Federer was at his absolute best in dismissing Andy Murray in straight sets in what is arguably the best performance he has had since last winning Wimbledon in 2012.

You have to remember that Federer was the underdog in the match with Murray- however, there was only ever going to be one winner after he saved a break point in the first game of the match as Federer completely dominated behind serve.

It was the most unexpected performance from Federer, even if I did think he could win the match, because I though Murray has been in very strong form and looked very capable of winning his second Wimbledon title. There was absolutely no way I figured that the match would be completed in straight sets for either player, but Federer was barely threatened on serve after the first game and had Murray constantly under pressure in his own service games.

Federer was imperious and you can't really blame Andy Murray for anything because there really wasn't a lot he could do in the face of what Federer was producing all day. Murray will have to take the positives away from this tournament, even if he would have expected to win it, and he now moves onto the Davis Cup tie against France at Queens Club next week before turning his attention to the North American hard courts.

I expect Murray to be amongst the favourites to win in New York, but for now the world will be looking to see if Roger Federer can produce the same kind of performance on Sunday as he did on Friday. If he can serve as well as he did in the Semi Final, I think there is every chance he can beat Novak Djokovic and win his eighth title at SW19, but this is going to be a big test against a player that beat him here in five sets twelve months ago.

My early feeling is that Novak Djokovic might be under-rated after a couple of iffy performances, but Roger Federer turned the clock back so well that this looks like another memorable Final in the making.

Garbine Muguruza + 5.5 games v Serena Williams: Maybe it is because she is playing in her maiden Grand Slam or maybe it is the domineering Serena Williams on the other side of the court, but I can't help feel that Garbine Muguruza is being severely under-rated in the Final.

It has felt that everyone has chosen to ignore the fact that Muguruza crushed Serena Williams in a little over an hour and for the loss of just four games in the Second Round of the French Open in 2014. Or they've chose to ignore the competitive three set match these two played at the Australian Open in the Fourth Round in January, but either way I think this going to be a very intriguing Final.

I am not buying the suggestion that Williams is going to steamroll Muguruza who has the power to really push Serena backwards and also the shot-making behind a big serve to give her every chance. There is a feeling that nerves could play a part, but I am not so concerned with that after seeing how Muguruza handled herself in the Semi Final and the mental strength she displayed in coming back from a break down in the third set, having lost 5 games in a row to also drop the second set.

The Muguruza serve is just as capable of setting up the cheap points as Serena's is when it is on form, although I can understand the edge being given to Williams considering her own form. Both players have some excellent names beaten to reach the Final so I am sure that neither will have any confidence issues and that should make this one of the more memorable Wimbledon Ladies Finals in recent years.

8 of the last 9 Finals have been decided in straight sets, but I think this is one that certainly has the chance of going the distance. I expect Muguruza won't be intimidated by taking on a player that she has beaten and taken the distance in their last two Grand Slam matches and I think the Spaniard plays with the confidence that can make this very competitive.

Muguruza wasn't concerned with nerves in her Semi Final and clearly enjoys playing on the big stage. While I do think Williams has the serve that will produce more aces, I also think Muguruza can get plenty of balls back with aggressive returns that might just rattle Williams.

And nerves will certainly not be on one side of the court as Williams continues her bid to secure a second 'Serena Slam' and to maintain her chance of winning all four Grand Slams in the same calendar year. You can't say that hasn't played a part in the last two Slams at the French Open and Wimbledon and Williams will also know how capable Muguruza is in not just absorbing her pace, but fighting fire with fire.

I really like Muguruza and do believe this is a player that will win multiple Grand Slams once the first one is in the bag. She is supremely confident and has the easy power to make her very dangerous so I wanted to find a way to back her in some form in this match.

Unlike some of the 'experts', I think there is a decent chance of the upset, but I am focusing on the handicap markets instead with Muguruza being hugely disrespected.

I wouldn't put off anyone backing Garbine Muguruza with a 1.5 head start on the set betting which looks a big price considering Muguruza has won 3 of the last 5 sets these two have competed against one another. However, I am going with the 5.5 game head start for the Spaniard which will still be able to come in if this is a competitive two setter win for Williams. I don't think Muguruza has a similar freeze that Sabine Lisicki did in the Final two years ago or how Eugenie Bouchard played against Petra Kvitova because I think she is more talented than both and has more to offer against Serena Williams.

This should be a fun Final and one where Muguruza has a chance to announce herself to the world on a larger scale.

MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza + 5.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 24-25, - 5.19 Units (97 Units Staked, - 5.35% Yield)

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