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Thursday, 23 July 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (July 24th)

What... A... Week(!)

I am completely done with this week and it is one that I don't want to go through again where it felt like I had literally picked matches that had players going out of their way to irritate me. I am not one of these people that think tennis players are machines so I obviously won't be venting my disgust to any of the players personally because I am not an idiot and have learned to take the rough with the smooth.

Unfortunately it has been incredibly rough this week as I have had virtually no fortune at all which has been highlighted by some of the ways the picks have fallen through and I think it is better to call it a day for the week.

Looking back at some of the results this week, I really wish I had Biff's Sports Almanac from Back to the Future because that is the only way I would believe what I was seeing. Players constantly getting into a position to win matches and somehow throwing them away and all the statistics pointing to the picks being correct, but simply not falling my way.

Making picks while completely 'pissed off', pardon my French, is simply not smart and I haven't lost faith that matches I picked were wrong considering how strong the season had been.

Don't be foolish in thinking that I don't appreciate there have been some bad picks too... The picks on Lukas Rosol and Federico Delbonis had alarm bells attached prior to being made and I should have paid more attention those.

But let me break down some of the other results and I think it will be clear that there has been almost nothing going my way.

It all began on Monday as the first pick of the week fell through the crack- I had backed Fernando Verdasco who somehow lost the first set despite having at least one break point in all but one Nicolas Almagro service game. He then won the second set easily enough and was serving to get into a final set tie-break only to then hand Almagro a break and winning the match.

Almagro only had break points in four games but broke three times, while Verdasco had break points in double the games and broke just three times himself. If that match went into a tie-breaker, Verdasco would have covered and thus set the tone for the rest of the week.

Later that day Matthew Ebden won the first set in his match 61, but then fell apart to lose and fail to cover a small number of games himself.

Moving on to Wednesday, Andrey Rublev became the third player I had picked this week that would have brought in a winner if he had won a final set in his match, but was beaten.

That had come after Thomaz Bellucci won more than half of the points on his opponent's serve but failed to covert a 0-40 situation and was broken in both the games he gave up break points in the match to miss the cover by a single game. On another day he wins 62, 62 but another day won't work for me this week.

So Thursday couldn't have that kind of misfortune could it? Well Julia Goerges became the latest player to lose a final set after dominating her match in the first two sets and failing to get the job done when she should have.

Alize Cornet won the first set of her match 62, but fell apart like so many others in another final set defeat and Martin Klizan was a set up in both sets but was still beaten in straight sets.

Jerzy Janowicz might have lost easily on paper, but he had had break points in every one of Steve Darcis' first three service games and couldn't convert which quickly saw him fall apart by the end of the match.

There are at least six matches there that could have easily gone my way with even a slight bounce of the ball falling for the players I had picked at the big moments. That might have actually made this a winning week rather than an embarrassing one that has crushed the season stats in three days.

The picks are still up, but it has been a devastating blow and I would much rather make a few tweaks and leave the tennis until the next set of tournaments. This is simply an ugly week where nothing is going to go right and I don't want any more part of it truth be told!

Some times it is better to say the battle is lost but try and win the war and that is what a long season on the tennis Tour is. You have some bad weeks, but trying to avoid these horrific weeks can be difficult when it really rolls on you.

I would have much rather have seen the picks get nowhere near winning at times because then you can make adjustments as to how they have been made- however, it is much more difficult to be critical of the methods to making picks when they have been as close as those have that I described above where the matches went almost exactly as anticipated except for the players putting the period on the sentence. 

So that will be it for the week as I will update the season statistics when making my next set of picks as the new tournaments begin on Monday. I feel disappointed for the readers this week who might have followed and had a rough week of their own, but I think the chance to refresh and start again on Monday is the best policy when the week has been as 'cursed' as this one has.

Hopefully a few days off will just reset whatever has gone wrong this week and next week is a much stronger return.

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