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Friday, 3 July 2015

Wimbledon Day 5 Picks 2015 (July 3rd)

I was fortunate enough to attend Wimbledon on Thursday and was on Centre Court to see the shocking exit of Rafael Nadal at the hands of Dustin Brown.

It has been a long day so I will just get on with the picks and have a summary of Wimbledon when putting together the post for the Fourth Round picks from the matches to be played on Monday 6th July.

Nick Kyrgios-Milos Raonic Over 44.5 Total Games: I was actually a little surprised to see Milos Raonic set as a healthy favourite to beat Nick Kyrgios in the Third Round, a repeat of their Quarter Final from twelve months ago.

I love Nick Kyrgios.

Some might be put off by his 'antics' on the court, but I think the Australian is the kind of character that will attract a lot of casual attention to tennis and he can only be good for the game. Kyrgios is animated and aggressive, but he has to improve his return of serve if he is going to reach the top of the men's game as his potential suggests he can.

He has been a controversial this week in both wins and Kyrgios has to keep a lid on his frustration as he will be dealing with the Milos Raonic serve which can be tough to read for the best returners. Raonic has looked very good at times this week, but has dropped some silly sets in both wins and I think the Canadian is still dealing with some type of injury issue, while also trying to remain on good terms with the grass courts.

I also don't think Nick Kyrgios is completely over elbow and back injuries he has been dealing with, but he has been serving well for the most part. With Raonic doing the same, tie-breakers could be a real feature of this match and I also doubt any of the two players is able to get this done without dropping a set. A 76, 67, 63, 76 kind of win for one of the players looks likely for one of the players, while I wouldn't rule out a fifth set being needed in this one so am looking for the total games to be surpassed.

Stan Wawrinka - 5.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: Stan Wawrinka described Fernando Verdasco as a 'moody' player that can easily bring his best form to the court at any time. He also pointed out the success that Verdasco has had on the grass courts in the past and I think Wawrinka will know how focused he is going to need to be to win this match.

Both players are capable of playing some very flashy tennis and I think this is going to be one of the more entertaining matches that will be played on Friday. Personally I am looking forward to the Verdasco forehand to Wawrinka's backhand battles that will develop in this lefty versus righty contest and I think those out there who love watching incredible shot-making tennis will be in for a treat.

My only disappointment is this match coincides with the Richard Gasquet-Grigor Dimitrov match which also looks highly competitive, although I will focus on this match.

I favour Stan Wawrinka to get the better of Verdasco simply because the Spaniard has been taken to five sets in back to back matches and that has to have hurt from a physical standpoint in this heat. It will be another hot day on Friday and Verdasco is taking on a Stan Wawrinka who has been comfortable through the draw so far and playing with extreme confidence.

You know this is the kind of stage that Verdasco will enjoy though and I expect him to make life difficult for Wawrinka at times. However, he will have to serve a lot better if he is going to keep the World Number 4 at bay and I think Wawrinka will find a way to come through with a 63, 67, 63, 64 win.

Leonardo Mayer-Kevin Anderson Over 42.5 Total Games: As you get further and further into a Grand Slam, the matches are expected to get more competitive. However, Kevin Anderson is a pretty healthy favourite to beat Leonardo Mayer, although I think this will be a little closer than the layers.

While Kevin Anderson will be expected to get through to the Fourth Round after reaching the Final in Queens, Leonardo Mayer has proven he is more than capable on the grass. Wins over Thanasi Kokkinakis and Marcel Granollers without dropping a set is impressive form from Mayer and he was only beaten in a third set breaker in Nottingham to eventual winner Denis Istomin last week.

The Argentine also reached the Fourth Round last year at Wimbledon so will have a full belief in his own game that he can cause the upset. Mayer has a pretty big serve when he finds consistency from that shot and it can be a pretty big weapon on this surface. Add in the fact that Kevin Anderson hasn't been totally convincing this week and Mayer has every chance of completing the upset.

However, I am not completely sold on that happening and instead believe this might be another tight match that goes at least four sets. Tie-breakers should be played too and I think the match goes over this total games if going to four sets as I expect it will between two players serving well on a very hot day.

Andrea Petkovic - 3.5 games v Zarina Diyas: Both Andrea Petkovic and Zarina Diyas have been impressive in their first couple of wins at Wimbledon and now play for the right to enter the second week of this Grand Slam. Both players have already beaten the other once this season and so confidence won't be in short supply on either side of the court.

Diyas has the best win having beaten Flavia Pennetta in the First Round, but Petkovic has only lost four games through the first two wins.

Neither player has really been able to produce the goods at Wimbledon in the past, but this is a great opportunity for one of them to do that. I think the Petkovic serve is going to set her up a little better than Diyas and that could be a big reason as to why the German is moving through to the Fourth Round.

In a match that could see break points created by both players, the stronger serve of Petkovic might just help her save a couple more games than Diyas. That could lead to a 62, 36, 63 win for the German in a tight battle.

Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Heather Watson: This is the final match on Centre Court and one that will be watched by a very interested British public. After coming through her First Round match against Caroline Garcia perhaps a little fortunately, Heather Watson was much improved in her win over Daniela Hantuchova.

Now she has to pick up her level by another couple of notches if she is going to beat Serena Williams and end any hopes of a 'Serena Slam'. The first two Slams are already in the bag for Williams who is yet to really spark into life at Wimbledon and is perhaps most vulnerable in the first week of the tournament.

That is what Heather Watson has to believe if she is going to cause an upset, but I think the British Number 1 will struggle to deal with the power coming at her from the other side of the court. Much like Serena Williams dismisses the challenge of light hitting players much higher than Watson in the World Rankings, I am expecting the American's power to guide her through to the Fourth Round.

This is the kind of match that will fire up Williams and get her to bring her best to the court- she will know the fans will want to cheer on the home player and so I expect Williams to come out and make a point. I do think Watson can make a set semi-competitive, but Williams should eventually prove too strong, too consistent and too experienced for her in a 64, 61 win.

MY PICKS: Nick Krygios-Milos Raonic Over 44.5 Total Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer-Kevin Anderson Over 42.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 10-10, - 0.89 Units (39 Units Staked, - 2.28% Yield)

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