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Monday, 27 July 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (July 27th)

Last week has to be the worst one I have experienced for a long time, easily the worst of the 2015 season, and it shouldn't surprise that I decided to call it on Thursday after the third day in a row where I felt I was not getting the breaks I wanted.

I've said enough about that in my last post so I just want to put a line through the week and move on.

There are another large amount of tournaments this week including the ATP 500 event in Hamburg which has attracted Rafael Nadal to take a Wild Card spot. I mentioned in the immediate aftermath of his exit at Wimbledon that he would be wise to try and build some confidence during the summer clay court events so am glad to see Nadal has taken a spot in Hamburg, but the First Round draw with Fernando Verdasco is far from an easy match for him.

Events in Gstaad, Atlanta, Baku and Florianopolis are also being played this week as I look for a bounce back from the shocking turn of last week.

Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: The final match in Hamburg on Monday is the First Round match between Nicolas Almagro and Albert Ramos-Vinolas and I think Almagro gets the better of his compatriot.

He rode his luck to a win over Fernando Verdasco last week before a disappointing 63, 63 loss to Denis Istomin, but Almagro has the power and comfort on the clay courts to take advantage of this match up. Nicolas Almagro has to serve well to keep the pressure on Albert Ramos-Vinolas who he beat earlier this season on clay in straight sets to make it four in a row against him.

I don't want to under-estimate Ramos-Vinolas who has won a Challenger on clay recently and reached the Quarter Final in Bastad last week before finding Tommy Robredo too good.

The lefty serve gives Ramos-Vinolas a chance to work his way through some service games without too much pressure, but Almagro has a backhand that is capable of negating this forehand and that should give him the edge in the rallies. It is also part of the reason the match up has been so good for Almagro along with the additional power and the better serve that he has over Ramos-Vinolas.

Gilles Muller - 1.5 games v Donald Young: Gilles Muller is coming off a decent grass court season, but he might have expected a better run at Wimbledon than a First Round defeat to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. This time last season Muller was playing in Challenger events on the hard courts prior to the US Open, but he has the form to get into the main draw in Atlanta and will be looking for a better run in North America than his early losses at Indian Wells and Miami.

However, Muller did reach the Final of a Challenger event in Texas and will feel he has the serve to trouble Donald Young who was embarrassed in Atlanta last year.

Young won just three games in his defeat to Dudi Sela last year and has regularly struggled at this event where he has suffered three consecutive First Round matches and failed to qualify in his last four appearances here. In fact, Young is just 1-4 in the main draw in Atlanta and Muller has the kind of game to give Young plenty of troubles.

That game isn't perfectly suited to the hard courts where the ball doesn't skid as low as on the grass, but Muller can become the latest to get the better of Young on these courts. It might need three sets, but I expect Muller to be the player that comes out on top.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Final2-14, - 24.44 Units (32 Units Staked, - 76.38% Yield)

Season 2015+ 10.81 Units (1178 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

Season 2014+ 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

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