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Tuesday, 7 July 2015

Wimbledon Day 8 Picks 2015 (July 7th)

I was extremely tired from a day at the tennis on Monday which means a shortened post for the picks from the Ladies Quarter Finals which are to be played on Tuesday.

Garbine Muguruza - 1.5 games v Timea Bacsinszky: This looks to be the closest of the four Quarter Finals that are going to be played today, at least according to the layers, as both Garbine Muguruza and Timea Bacsinszky try to progress to another Grand Slam Semi Final. Both have done that at the French Open over the last fourteen months, while they also played a three set match at the Australian Open earlier this season which was won by the Spaniard.

There isn't much to split them in terms of form over the Wimbledon event and I think you can make a real argument for both Muguruza and Bacsinszky moving through to the Semi Final. I think Muguruza definitely has the edge when it comes to the first serve and earning some cheaper points, but Bacsinszky is the more consistent player and will be unlikely to make the number of unforced errors that Muguruza will.

I am a big fan of the potential that Muguruza has, while also have a lot of respect for the way Bacsinszky has approached things since returning to the Tour. There are times when I can be critical of the Muguruza volleying considering the success she has had on the Doubles Tour, but I do think her power will make the difference on the fast playing courts thanks to the warm weather in SW19.

It is a cooler day on Tuesday with rain expected to cause some disruption for the ladies out on Court One, but I think this match will come down to the racquet of Muguruza. I am expecting her to start moving up the World Rankings and think she comes through in a tight 63, 36, 64 Quarter Final.

Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: Considering 5 of their last 7 matches have gone to three sets, including at the French Open last month, and Serena Williams has only covered this number of games twice in those 7 matches too, it might be a surprise I am picking her to come through fairly comfortably in this Quarter Final.

Victoria Azarenka has quietly gone about her business this week as she has moved through the draw without dropping and set and losing no more than 8 games in any of her matches. However, it has to be said that the level of competition she will face has gone up a couple of levels after watching Serena Williams comfortably handle everything Venus Williams threw at her on Monday.

The scare to Heather Watson might just have refocused Serena Williams at the right time and this is potentially a match played under the roof if the rain remains in SW19. That will only increase the power of the serve and the grass is clearly Azarenka's weakest surface as Serena Williams has beaten her twice very easily in their three previous meetings at Wimbledon.

The heavier hitting from the Williams side of the court should make a big difference on the grass as the ball skids through and I am not sure Azarenka will be able to hold serve without being put under pressure. Serena Williams was almost perfect with her return of serve against a heavier ball that Venus Williams sent at her on Monday and I think she will give Azarenka too many issues if serving well too.

Matches have been close between these players in recent meetings, but this might be the most straight-forward win for Williams in a while as I expect her to come through 63, 64.

MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 18-21, - 7.73 Units (77 Units Staked, - 10.04% Yield)

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