Weekend Football Picks 2015 (February 21-22)

There have been three major talking points from the football that has been played this week, even if one of them was not because of on-field issues.


The first was the Wayne Rooney 'dive' against Preston North End in the FA Cup Fifth Round tie at Deepdale on Monday night- when watching the game in live time, I was sure it was a penalty so I am not going to give the referee any grief for his decision. Even the replay from behind the referee looked like the goalkeeper had taken out Rooney so there is no problem with him pointing to the spot.

The controversy comes from the fact that another angle shows Rooney was clearly not touched and decided to kick the ground and fall over. It was an absolute 'dive' and forget all this rubbish about 'evading a tackle' because that action didn't make him leave his leg dangling and then kick the ground while flinging the arms in the air.

I said on Monday night that if that was Diego Costa, a player that really divides opinion and very easy to dislike because of his on-field demeanour. I don't think one of these 'experts' backing Rooney would have been doing the same. Of course the honest Englishman wouldn't do something like that, I mean ask Sol Campbell and the Arsenal players who saw their 49 game unbeaten run ended back in 2004.

Anyone who has watched Manchester United for more than two minutes will know that Rooney has a tendency to go down dramatically and then complain to the referee for twenty minutes if he hasn't been given a foul. This shouldn't even have been a debate as to whether he did it, but the incident took a on a life on it's own as if that was the sole reason Preston North End were beaten and the arguments on both sides were being made.

Again, if that is Diego Costa, there is not one 'expert' who backs him in that situation.


That story was quickly put aside when late on Tuesday evening a video made the rounds of Chelsea fans preventing a black Parisian from getting on a train and then chanting songs about being 'racist'. Now I know evolution hasn't helped the Neanderthals, but even they must have known in this modern day that someone is going to have a smart phone to film their idiocy, but then again that is why they are Neanderthals.

Having the video go viral has then provoked a huge reaction in the media, but none of the fingers want to be pointed at Chelsea- the same Chelsea fans who serenaded Anton Ferdinand with chants of 'you know what you are' at Stamford Bridge following the John Terry incident.

So while some comment that it is only a handful of idiots spoiling it for the rest, I would go back to that Terry situation and ask if the club backing their Captain, despite being charged for his comments made to Ferdinand, was actually giving out the correct message. It inspired virtually 30,000 people to feel it is right to chant 'you know what you are' to Anton Ferdinand and also boo Rio Ferdinand when Manchester United visited the Bridge.

Is it really that much of a surprise that an element of their support are like this? Not really when you consider a cross-section of society, which football fans cross, will have that element, but I just feel the condemnation from this club in particularly could have happened three years ago when Terry was kept on as Captain.

Chelsea could have said they believe Terry is remorseful but the leader of their team and essentially face of the club has to be mindful at all times and so they needed to make the change at Captain. Like I said, instead they have allowed the fans to chant ridiculous things at the Ferdinand brothers, whose biggest crime seems to be not accepting that Terry should be allowed to call someone a 'black c**t', but now they are ashamed that some of those fans have taken it to the next level.


Anyone who has played for Manchester City and Liverpool and regularly tweets negative things about Manchester United is not going to be someone I like. So I won't shed a tear for the new negative vibes surrounding Mario Balotelli, although I will say this story from Thursday when he took the penalty off of Jordan Henderson in the win over Besiktas has been blown out of proportion completely.

Steven Gerrard was unimpressed in his role as pundit for ITV, while Jamie Redknapp jumped on the bandwagon the following morning on Sky Sports. The only Scouser whose opinion I actually respect is Jamie Carragher and I think he was spot on in saying that Mario Balotelli was the right person to take the penalty of all the players on the pitch because the Italian is very calm under that pressure.

Of course he didn't go about the right way by grabbing the ball off the Captain for the evening, but I actually think this is a non-story and was probably a case of wires crossed. Balotelli is the penalty-taker after Steven Gerrard and I am assuming he didn't realise that someone had been picked ahead of him as he has known he will take the penalties if Gerrard is not on the pitch.

That was the situation and I don't think there will be any lingering issues once the air has been cleared, but Balotelli is one of those players that the media love to hammer regardless of what he does. He is an easy target for the way he carries himself and while he doesn't help himself at times, I think this one of those occasions where there is clearly a misunderstanding and he ultimately scored anyway!

The media love a good non-story and this is one of those that will not mean much for player or club going into a huge top four clash with Southampton this weekend.


Crystal Palace v Arsenal Pick: This is going to be a difficult test for Arsenal and their Champions League credentials, especially as their Last 16 tie in that competition against Monaco is to be played following this one. It is something of a surprise to me that Arsenal are a fair bit shorter than Liverpool were to win here in the FA Cup last weekend considering those other factors, and I certainly think Crystal Palace have the pace and power in the forward positions to ruffle their London rivals.

Defensively Arsenal have looked suspect and they get very nervy when they concede, while the atmosphere at Selhurst Park should be red-hot for this League game. The fans inspire the players to really dig deep and better composure in the final third would have seen Crystal Palace into the Sixth Round of the FA Cup at the expense of Liverpool.

They will need to show that composure this week if they are going to get something out of Arsenal, especially as the Gunners have shown their own teeth when going forward. Arsenal have scored in all but one of their last 13 away games in all competitions since losing 2-0 at Chelsea and they will enjoy some of the space that Crystal Palace have afforded teams as they have tired.

Both teams are unlikely to sit back and take a wait and see approach and this should be a game that provides goals as the FA Cup tie between Crystal Palace and Liverpool did last week. Picking a winner isn't as straight-forward as the odds may suggest either considering how well Crystal Palace played in the loss against Liverpool and instead I think backing goals at almost odds against looks a big price.


Swansea v Manchester United Pick: The performances remain nothing more than average, but Manchester United continue clawing and fighting their way to wins and avoiding losses in recent weeks, although the pressure is on the side to try and maintain their position in the Champions League places. A big March is coming up for Manchester United with League games against Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool, but they can't take their eyes off the ball against a Swansea team that can make life difficult for anyone.

Losing Wilfried Bony has sapped Swansea of some of their threat, but they maintain possession and can work teams around, while I am of the belief that the 0-5 home loss to Chelsea was just a terrible day in the office. Assuming that to be the case, Swansea should give Manchester United a really difficult test through the afternoon at the Liberty Stadium even if the Swansea form has dropped off.

They are facing a Manchester United team that has struggled to turn draws into wins away from home and have rarely put in a full performance that will impress their Dutch manager. However, late goals are beginning to be a feature of the team again, which is always a good sign about character and belief, and Van Gaal can change his style of play if he needs to as he has shown in recent games.

This has all the hallmarks of a tight game between teams that have been well matched for the most part in recent games against one another. Swansea's possession style of football can work Manchester United about, while defensively the latter still look suspect.

On the other hand, this is a game I think Manchester United can get the ball down and play and they still have quality players in forward positions that have been clinical when the chances have come their way. They should be able to take advantage of the lack of confidence that Swansea have displayed, although it seems to take Manchester United a little while to get going.

They look a short price to win the game, even if I think this is the most likely outcome from the game on Saturday, so I have to look at other markets to see if there is a better option.

Did you know that 7 of Manchester United's last 8 Premier League away games has gone in level at the break? That becomes 10 in 11 if you include the FA Cup and the last 7 in a row.

That is when the Louis Van Gaal can implement some of the changes to make Manchester United more of a threat going forward and at 5.50, it looks a big price for the Draw at Half Time and Manchester United to earn the three points in the second half. All 3 away wins in the Premier League would have satisfied that criteria and might be the best way to back Manchester United to leave the Liberty Stadium with three huge points.


Manchester City v Newcastle United Pick: There has been something missing in the Manchester City performances over the last six weeks which has allowed Chelsea to get away in the Premier League title race, but the win at Stoke City could be something of a spark for the home team. They have to remain focused on this game and not start anticipating the big Champions League game against Barcelona coming up during the week, while the return of Yaya Toure and Wilfried Bony from the African Cup of Nations is a huge boost for Manuel Pellegrini.

That is especially the case if Sergio Aguero has to miss this game with an injury suffered against Stoke City, although he has had ten days to recover from that. Manuel Pellegrini has to be urging Manchester City to start more along the lines of the way they did against Stoke City and not be lulled to sleep by a slow tempo game that they have sometimes been drawn into playing by teams.

Having Toure back in the middle of the field is huge for Manchester City as his driving runs can build the atmosphere in a Stadium where the fans can sometimes sit on their hands. He is also capable of producing a special goal and Manchester City should be on the front foot in this one, although they have to be careful about the pace Newcastle United will have on the counter-attack.

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me- that is the mantra Pellegrini has to be aware of when it comes to the counter-attack as Newcastle United used it to devastating effect in their 0-2 win at the Etihad Stadium in the League Cup earlier this season. They had to ride their luck, which is understandable in this Stadium, but Newcastle United are almost certainly going to go with the same gameplan and hope it pays dividends again.

It is hard to imagine Manchester City falling into the trap again and they are well rested for this game. The win at Stoke City feels like a real turning point for the side and I think Manchester City can ride that momentum into this game.

The have dominated Newcastle United at home in recent seasons in the Premier League and I believe Manchester City might have turned a corner to the extent that they will win this game by at least two goals.


Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United Pick: It must have felt like a long week for West Ham United fans as they tried to find a justification for the way their side collapsed in the 4-0 loss at West Brom in the FA Cup Fifth Round. The side is almost left in purgatory in the middle of the Premier League with nothing else to look forward to, although the fans should be ready to visit White Hart Lane against a rival.

They have had a lot of successful times in recent visits to White Hart Lane and West Ham United may feel they can take advantage of Tottenham Hotspur being in action on Thursday evening. This game is an early kick off on Sunday morning so there isn't a lot of recovery time for the Tottenham Hotspur players, even if Mauricio Pochettino made some changes on Thursday to keep everyone ready.

It is important for Tottenham Hotspur to maintain the pace with the top four, especially as Southampton meet Liverpool this week, and they can't afford to drop points in this one. They have won their last 2 Premier League games off the back of Europa League matches and now face a West Ham United team that has to have had their confidence dented.

West Ham United did play well to get a point at Southampton recently, but the Saints have not been winning as many home games as Spurs and I do think Tottenham can win this game. They have match winners like Harry Kane and Christian Eriksen who can produce the goods in tight games and I am not sure what the West Ham players will be feeling over the coming weeks with pressure on their manager.

Sam Allardyce has done a really good job at Upton Park, but his situation is similar to Alan Pardew's was at Newcastle United in that the fans are never far away from turning their vitriol towards him. As much as Allardyce seems to have a thick skin about these things, it has to have an effect on him and his players.

The Hammers have a good recent record at White Hart Lane, but I think the home team make the odds on quote count in a narrow win. West Ham have just hit the buffers in terms of scoring goals away from home and have failed to do that in 3 of their last 4 Premier League away games and at West Brom last week so may just have a hard time containing Spurs in this one.


Everton v Leicester City Pick: A relegation six pointer is perhaps a bit of a harsh way to describe this game, but you can't ignore Everton's position in the Premier League table and the desperation that Leicester City have to earn a win that will at least bring them back in touch with the teams above them

The television cameras have come to Goodison Park in anticipation of a tension filled game, but both Everton and Leicester City may feel they can express themselves in this one. Everton had a vital win over Young Boys in the Europa League on Thursday night and they can use that to spark them to success in this one, although Leicester City will feel they deserve more points from recent games than they have earned.

Defensively they have made too many mistakes which have cost them at this level and Everton have the attacking players to expose any issues Leicester City have at the back. Romelu Lukaku silenced some of his critics with a hat-trick in Switzerland on Thursday and he looks the kind of player that can go on a streak of games scoring goals which is what Roberto Martinez will be hoping for.

The return of Phil Jagielka and John Stones has also given Everton a more solid platform to build upon and that has led to their side shoring up defensively. Everton have kept clean sheets in their last two home games and will believe Lukaku can ride his personal momentum to finding the winning goals for the side.

Too often this season Leicester City have conceded at least two goals away from home and that is a problem that has shown little sign of being rectified. They have posed problems for teams at the other end of the pitch, but failure to keep clean sheets has to be demoralising for the players and it is tough to see how Nigel Pearson gets that to change.

It does look like Pearson will be keeping his job as manager for the rest of the season, but Leicester City might face another defeat which is set to send them back to the Championship as the teams above them continue to earn the points that the Foxes aren't.


Southampton v Liverpool Pick: When it comes to handing out Champions League places to the top four teams in the Premier League, games like this should have had a huge bearing on which of these teams get involved in those important places. Both Southampton and Liverpool might be considered surprises at this stage of the season to be challenging for the top four places but for differing reasons.

Liverpool had such a horrific start to the season and looked down and out when it comes to Champions League football after losing 3-0 at Manchester United in December, but they have steadily rebuilt their season. On the other hand, Southampton weren't expected to be a challenger for Europa League places, let alone the Champions League, and people have been waiting for the bubble to burst for them.

To be honest, Southampton are in the midst of a bit of a slump in form and they might very easily be out of the top four by the time this final game of the Premier League weekend kicks off. That is going to be a mental blow for the Saints who have won just 1 of their last 4 games in all competitions and who have failed to win any of 4 at St Mary's since a 2-0 victory over Arsenal on New Year's Day.

They are now facing an in-form Liverpool team that has won 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions since going out of the Capital One Cup Semi Final. Liverpool had also won 3 straight away games in the Premier League before being held to a goalless draw in the Merseyside derby and the return of Daniel Sturridge to join the likes of Raheem Sterling and Philippe Coutinho in the forward positions makes this team very dangerous.

It might be wrong, but Southampton and Liverpool do look like teams that are going in opposite directions at the moment. Ronald Koeman's men have found it hard to find the right balance in recent games at St Mary's and the pace of Liverpool in the forward positions has to frighten the Southampton back line. Liverpool were comfortable winners here last season and while I don't think it will be that simple, I think they can be given a small interest to really get into the top four mix.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.98 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Draw HT-Manchester United FT @ 5.50 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Everton @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Liverpool @ 3.20 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

February Update: 12-18-1, - 2.59 Units (50 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 80-120-2, - 29.42 Units (346 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)