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Saturday, 7 February 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (February 7th)

After both outright picks went out earlier in the week, it looks like being a tough one to follow the Australian Open as we reach the Semi Finals in Montpellier, Quito and Zagreb.

The draw for the tournament in Rotterdam next week has already been made as some of the bigger names return to the Tour, but the events in Sao Paolo and Memphis have yet to set their line up. The WTA Tour will also be returning next week following Fed Cup action and there is a big tournament in Antwerp that will also be played.

Jerzy Janowicz - 3.5 games v Joao Sousa: Jerzy Janowicz is scheduled to go to Rotterdam next week, but he isn't going to have to play any qualifiers and will be looking to back up what he considers to be his best performance of the season so far. I'd go a little further and say it is the best Janowicz has played for a lot longer than that as he dismissed Gilles Simon in the Quarter Final and the big Polish player looks like someone who will thrive on the confidence he has picked up.

That could be bad news for Joao Sousa despite his own strong run to the Semi Final, especially as Sousa has lost his two previous matches against Janowicz. The match they played at Winston-Salem last season was actually a close one decided on a final set tie-breaker, but Janowicz was serving very well in his win over Simon and bringing that into this Semi Final will make it tough for Sousa to overcome.

Out of the two players, Sousa is going to have to work a lot harder to hold onto serve and that pressure may eventually be part of the reason Janowicz is able to come through. It isn't just the power that makes Janowicz so dangerous, but the fact he has a lot of touch and feel which makes drop shots and volleys a big part of his game.

That can mean a lot of silly errors coming out of his racquet, but Janowicz' confidence has to be in a good place and he may work through to produce a 62, 76 win in this one.

Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Marcel Granollers: Andreas Seppi had a chance to serve for the match against Ricardas Berankis in the Quarter Final, but failure to do that meant he had to come through a third set tie-breaker to reach the Semi Final. The Italian's failure to serve it out did mean my pick was lost yesterday, but I am going to back Seppi to recover and beat Marcel Granollers in this Semi Final.

Both players have come through some tough moments to reach this stage of the tournament, although I think Seppi's has been more down to his own making. Seppi should have beaten James Ward and Berankis in better fashion than he did, while Granollers perhaps rode his luck to come through against Ivan Dodig and Igor Sijsling.

That mental pressure is harder to recover from in my opinion, even if you think you are playing with 'house money' in a tournament you should have been knocked out from. Fatigue is a bigger concern for Granollers who is going to have to work through some long rallies to win this match and I think Seppi will be in better physical shape if this goes into the later stages of the match.

Matches between these players have been tight affairs in the past with two of the last three going the distance and both won by Granollers in that case. However, I think the physical fitness will be on the side of Seppi and he will come through with a 75, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Jerzy Janowicz - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-6, - 3.48 Units (22 Units Staked, - 15.82% Yield)

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