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Wednesday, 4 February 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (February 4th)

It was something of a mixed bag on Tuesday with the picks going 1-1, but I was happy to see Victor Troicki make it through the First Round match on a final set tie-break despite creating numerous chances to break serve.

You can read my outright picks from this week's tournaments here.

I am going to add at least one more pick I would imagine once the market has released the spread on that one, but that might have to wait until the morning.

Joao Sousa - 1.5 games v Tobias Kamke: This is the second time these two players have met at this tournament following their battle at the same stage last season and Joao Sousa can make it three wins in a row against Tobias Kamke.

Sousa might have been largely outplayed by Andy Murray at the Australian Open, but the Portuguese player showed tremendous heart to not give up on a losing cause. That kind of desire cannot be taught and I think it says a lot about what Sousa wants to achieve from his tennis career and I think that will give him an edge in this match.

In saying that, Sousa has struggled since reaching a career high in July last year, but those matches have generally been against players that I would consider better than Kamke. The German has struggled to have a real impact on the main Tour due in part to a serve that does give players at this level the chance to really exploit his game.

It might not be so easy for Sousa to do that, but he won a couple of matches at the Australian Open which should have given him some confidence from the event. With the slightly slower conditions in Montpellier than you might expect on an indoor hard court, I think Sousa will be able to at least get after the Kamke serve and eventually come through with a 64, 36, 63 win.

Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 games v Albert Montanes: Albert Montanes spends the majority of his time on the clay courts these days and will look for his familiarity on the surface to try and stun the Number 2 Seed in Quito.

He faces Santiago Giraldo who was given a bye in the First Round and Albert Montanes was a comfortable winner, but you can't say he is in the best form considering his lack of wins on the Challenger Tour over the last couple of weeks.

The conditions in Quito seem to be playing fairly quick thanks to the altitude of the tournament and that should work in the favour of Giraldo who has the bigger and more consistent serve of the two players. Giraldo has also dominated the head to head against Montanes, including beating him twice last season including a win during the 'Golden Swing' in South America.

It hasn't been the best start to the season for Giraldo, but he mainly plays at a higher level than Montanes these days and I think he can come through 63, 64.

MY PICKS: Joao Sousa - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.34 Units (4 Units Staked, - 8.5% Yield)

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