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Thursday, 26 February 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (February 26th)

Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Carla Suarez Navarro may feel she has the kryptonite to stop the Petra Kvitova game having won their last two matches including in Dubai last week, but I am backing the higher Ranked player to earn a measure of revenge in this one.

The Quarter Final between them in Doha should be a fascinating match between the big-hitting Petra Kvitova and the counter-punching skills that Carla Suarez Navarro can produce. You would expect Kvitova to have more success on the return of serve than she has had in the last couple of matches against Suarez Navarro, and this has all the makings of a tight game.

That might make this number of games look attractive that the Spaniard is getting, but Kvitova has the capability of putting together a strong run of games to move clear of her opponent. She has to put the last couple of losses to the back of her mind and mentally stay in the moment, but I do like Kvitova to do that and force breaks of serve and get ahead of Suarez Navarro in this one.

There is every chance this match goes three sets, but I think Kvitova can come through with a 62, 46, 64 victory.


Andrea Petkovic + 3.5 games v Lucie Safarova: These two players are both in very good form as Andrea Petkovic recently won the tournament in Antwerp, while Lucie Safarova was a Quarter Finalist in Dubai last week and has reached that stage again in Doha.

Safarova will be hoping that Petkovic is perhaps feeling some of the three set matches she has had to play in her legs coming into the Quarter Final, but matches between these players have been close in the past. Lucie Safarova has the bigger serve that will give her an edge in that department, but Petkovic can dig deep and find her way back into matches that are seemingly slipping away.

I am expecting another competitive match between these players that can potentially go all the way to a third set and I do think the games being given to Petkovic look a touch on the high side. It might be a game too high, although I also think the German has every chance of winning this match outright considering she has won 4 of their last 5 matches.


Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: Fabio Fognini is off a very successful week in Rio De Janeiro and I do think he can back that up with a win over Carlos Berlocq as long as he deals with the crowd that is going to be firmly behind the Argentinian.

Fognini does have previous in allowing outside factors to dictate the way he approaches the game, but I think this is a match up that should suit him. There will be a lot of long rallies and Fognini should have the better consistency when it comes to shots that actually shift him into a stronger position in those rallies than Berlocq.

The Italian will also have to deal with Berlocq who seems to be a player that can get under the skin of opponents with his loud grunting which is a rarity on the ATP Tour compared with the WTA Tour. Berlocq is also very comfortable on the clay courts with his best results coming on this surface.

However, Berlocq has a surprisingly poor record in the event held in Buenos Aires and I think Fognini can battle through to a 75, 64 win.


Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: Two compatriots meet in the Second Round and I think Nicolas Almagro can take another positive step since his return to the ATP Tour by beating Albert Ramos-Vinolas in this Second Round match.

Almagro has played some decent tennis on his return since missing the remainder of the 2014 season after retiring at the French Open and losing to Pablo Cuevas in the last couple of events during the Golden Swing is not exactly a disappointing result. Almagro was close to winning at least one of those matches against the in-form Cuevas, while wins over Tommy Robredo and Pablo Andujar are indicators that Almagro is on the way back.

This won't be an easy match against Albert Ramos-Vinolas who has been very comfortable on the clay courts and whose lefty serve can be a problem to deal with.

However, I think the heavier shots will come from the Almagro side of the court and his serve should pay dividends in this one and I like him to battle his way to a 64, 64 win.


Victor Troicki + 2.5 games v Kevin Anderson: There isn't much between these two players according to the layers and I do think it has the potential to be a close match, but one I am expecting Victor Troicki to come through and reach the Semi Final in Acapulco.

Kevin Anderson had to dig very deep to see off Steve Johnson yesterday and he won't have a lot of time to get ready for this game compared with Victor Troicki who was a much more comfortable winner over Santiago Giraldo.

Both players have a decent serve that will set up some points, but I think Anderson has just been having a few more issues with his game over the last week and Troicki can take advantage. The Serb can be a little hard to trust fully despite the indication he is motivated to right what he feels as being the wrongs of his ban from the Tour last year.

However, I will take the games being offered to Troicki because I do think he can win the match outright, but also covers a tight match that could easily go deep into a third set.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Victor Troicki + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-3, + 9.16 Units (22 Units Staked, + 41.64% Yield)

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