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Sunday, 8 February 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (February 8th)

The tennis Finals in Montpellier, Zagreb and Quito are all set for this Sunday as the next stops in Rotterdam, Sao Paulo and Memphis get set to begin on Monday. It was a pretty disappointing week for the picks with a couple of games here and there making, or breaking in this case, what would have been a decent week otherwise.

The fact that both outright picks also disappointed hasn't helped matters but it is the nature of a long tennis season that you are going to have to take the rough with the smooth when it comes to winning and losing weeks. Obviously the idea is to limit the losing weeks and maximise the winning ones, but you can't always get what you want and I just have to try and do my best in picking the right winners.

Jerzy Janowicz + 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: These two players had a tight Semi Final twelve months ago and both are in decent form heading into the Final of the event in Montpellier. Richard Gasquet has produced the better performances of the two in my opinion, but Jerzy Janowicz is feeling the confidence surging through him after overcoming a difficult First Round match against Dustin Brown.

In that match, Janowicz had to fend of match points before moving through, but he is still struggling with the consistency to put together a full match of the standard he wants. Aside from the win over Gilles Simon, Janowicz hasn't been as dominant behind serve as he would have liked, but Richard Gasquet will have to be more aggressive than he has shown at times if he is to win this match easily and cover this number of games.

I do think Gasquet is the more likely winner with the way he has been playing this week and he has the ability to block back returns and hope Janowicz shoots himself in the foot. However, the aggression of the Polish player has unsettled Gasquet in the past and there is every chance he can take at least a set.

If Janowicz can put together a couple of really solid return games and take the break points he creates, this should be a competitive Final which will make the 3.5 games look a big head-start.

Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: Two players who have made very good starts to their 2015 seasons will be looking to underline the positives by taking home a title when they meet on Sunday in Zagreb. Out of the two players, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has come through more comfortably than Andreas Seppi, but the Italian has never previously been beaten by Garcia-Lopez.

Both players have similarities in that they don't have dominant serves and look to battle hard on the court for every point they will win. Unlike a lot of matches on the indoor hard courts, I think this one will feature a few breaks of serve for both men, especially as the conditions in Zagreb have perhaps been slower relatively with other other indoor hard courts.

I think it would also be fair to say that Garcia-Lopez has come through the more difficult draw to reach the Final, but Seppi feels he had his best performance of the week in the Semi Final win over Marcel Granollers.

There will be a few really testing rallies for both players and the winner of the majority of those is going to hold the edge- I give that to Andreas Seppi over their performances on the season and his head to head dominance over Garcia-Lopez and I like the Italian to come through 75, 64.

MY PICKS: Jerzy Janowicz + 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-7, - 3.48 Units (26 Units Staked, - 13.38% Yield)

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