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Monday 30 December 2013

Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (December 29-January 5)

The calendar year of 2013 seems to have gone by in a flash for me this season and I know I am not the only person out there that can't believe almost two months have passed since the World Tour Finals were completed in London.

It all means that a new tennis season is beginning this week with tournaments to be played in Brisbane, Doha and Chennai and we will also be seeing some of the biggest names on both the ATP and WTA Tour in those tournaments. That is not a surprise considering the first Grand Slam tournament of the season takes place in a couple of weeks and the long lay off means no player wants to turn up at Melbourne Park under-prepared.


I am expecting some changes in the World Rankings this season- we will still see the top three players on the ATP Tour, Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, leading the way but I am expecting Juan Martin Del Potro to prove himself a genuine Grand Slam threat and get closer to those names.

David Ferrer slipping in the Rankings won't be a surprise after his end to last season, although that might have been down to an injury he was potentially carrying, while Roger Federer is looking to get back to his best.

Younger players will be looking to make their own impact and I can see this being another fabulous year on the Tour.


However, I do hope that this season proves to be a better one than last year when things didn't go at all the way I expected in the final months after Wimbledon, while I also didn't have a very good time picking winners of the tournaments outright. Some of those were unfortunate, but plenty were poor picks and I will be looking to improve on the numbers from last season.

Either way, I hope we all have a season of great tennis to watch and some great moments to remember as the season goes on.


ATP Brisbane
It was a real surprise to see Roger Federer decide to play in Brisbane this season as he usually takes in the big money tournament in Doha, but it is clear he is trying to do everything in his power to ensure he can once again move into the mix when it comes to Grand Slam titles.

Last year was a poor one by the standards that Federer has set in the past and he had to wait six months before picking up what would be the only title he would win in 2013. That came in Halle, but relatively early defeats at Wimbledon and the US Open just underlined what a poor season it had been.

Federer will begin this week as the favourite to pick up the title in Brisbane which had been won by Andy Murray last year and the draw has been kind to him. Even a couple of years ago, Federer at evens to win in this field would have prompted me to back him with big units, but my enthusiasm has been reduced by last year.

I do think Federer will be too good for the likes of Jarkko Nieminen, Dmitry Tursunov and Sam Querrey in the top quarter of the draw, although old rival Julien Benneteau may be a threat for Federer. Kevin Anderson may be the big threat in the top half of the draw with his serve and heavy game, but I would be more than a little surprised if Federer, who showed some semblance of decent form in his last three tournaments, isn't in the Final at the weekend.

The bottom half of the draw has a number of players that could potentially cause Federer problems in the Final with the likes of Feliciano Lopez, Lleyton Hewitt, Marin Cilic, Kei Nishikori and last season's Finalist Grigor Dimitrov all potentially troublesome for the former World Number 1. However, you would think that Federer would have enough confidence behind him if he gets through to the Final to see off any of those potential rivals and I will have an interest in Federer to win here.


ATP Doha
The favourite to win this week in Doha is unsurprising the Number 1 player in the Rankings, Rafael Nadal, but he has regularly failed to take the title home here and looks a vulnerable favourite despite a stellar 2013 season.

The draw isn't a bad one, but facing a dangerous opponent like Ernests Gulbis early in the tournament could be one to watch for Nadal, while Tomas Berdych and Philipp Kohlschreiber will hope to break their long losing run to the Spaniard in the first tournament of the season.

I won't look too far down the list for a potential winner of the tournament as Andy Murray continues working his way back into tournament play after missing the last three months of the last season with a back injury. Murray won one match and lost one match at an exhibition tournament last week which would have helped, and he has been a regular title winner early in the season.

He has won the last two seasons at Brisbane to open the tournament and also won 6 of 7 matches at the Hopman Cup in singles play in the two years prior to taking on the Brisbane tournament. Murray couldn't have asked for a better way to work his way into this event as he takes on a Wild Card first up and then will potentially play Florian Mayer and Fernando Verdasco.

A Semi Final against last season's winner here, Richard Gasquet, or David Ferrer could be the first test that Murray faces in the tournament where his lack of matches in recent months may be exposed, but I would expect the British player to come through a match against either of those players.

I'd only have a small interest in Murray considering the doubts I still have, but he has made fast starts to the previous seasons to suggest he could do the same here.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray @ 4.50 Stan James (1 Unit)

Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011+ 82.02 Units

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