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Thursday 5 December 2013

College Football Week 15 Picks 2013 (December 5-7)

That has to go down as one of the biggest plays in College Football history when Auburn returned a missed field goal for the winning Touchdown to knock Alabama from the the ranks of the unbeaten and leave their chances of a three-peat as a mess.

The fact that Alabama had asked for one second to be put back on the clock before the game went into overtime and then decided to kick a field goal with their back up kicker just increased the drama. You could hear the surprise in the commentator's voices that Alabama had not gone for the Hail Mary pass and take their chances with that than the long, long field goal they ended up trying.

I was stunned, but you could see the return lane open up as soon as Chris Davis fielded the missed kick and Auburn are now playing for the SEC Championship after a huge turnaround from last season.


It was a stunning play and has left Florida State in the strongest position to play in the National Championship Game, followed by Ohio State and Auburn.

I still don't think Alabama can be ruled out in playing in the National Championship Game and that is a real possibility which I should go into later.

The final week of the season is where a number of Conference Championships are decided and we will then see what is picked for the big BCS Bowl games for the rest of the month and early next season. Ohio State and Auburn are both playing their Championship games this week and I would argue that both of those teams losing will open the door for Alabama to receive enough votes to meet Florida State in Pasadena.

I don't think Duke, as well as they have played, will be able to surprise the Seminoles, but the Buckeyes face Michigan State and Auburn take on Missouri in two tough Conference Championship games.

Ohio State need to produce a dominating display in my opinion or they will need to see Auburn lose to get into the National Championship Game. The Buckeyes can't afford to play like they did against Michigan last week when they escaped with a win as Auburn are hot on their tails in the votes and I still think the latter overtake them if they win the SEC.

I haven't been that impressed with Ohio State, but I also think Auburn have benefited from a couple of freak plays to be in the position they are in- the fourth down conversion against Georgia was ridiculous, while the missed field goal return was also a surprising occurrence that is unlikely to be successful on too many occasions.

With that in mind, if both teams were to lose this weekend, I do believe the voters will pick Alabama to take Florida State as the best of the one loss teams- it would also represent the second time in three years that the Crimson Tide will play for the National title without winning their Division.


I can't really go on without mentioning the end of the Jameis Winston investigation- while no one will know what happened, it was important for this young man to get on with his life if there wasn't a case to be answered. But as I said, no one will know what happened so you also to have sympathy for the young woman who had to pull out of school after the whole sorry affair started twelve months ago.

It also has to be said that this should have been investigated properly months ago and not left to hang around for a year.


Louisville Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: This is a bigger game for the Cincinnati Bearcats who can still win a share of the American Atlantic title if they win this game and the UCF Knights lose on Saturday when they take on SMU.

That is a big ask for Cincinnati and I have a feeling that Louisville are going to be a little too good for them in the first part of that scenario and hand the Knights the title with a win.

It is going to be cold and wet on Thursday night which means both teams will probably look to pound the ball on the ground as much as possible and the Cardinals are slightly more effective at doing that, while also being slightly more effective at stopping the run compared with Cincinnati.

Teddy Bridgewater has not allowed the one loss for Louisville against UCF affect them as they have won 4 straight since then, and I think he will be the Quarter Back that makes the plays at critical moments to see Louisville through to the win.

The Louisville Secondary can make the bigger plays of the two units in this game and I think that proves to be the difference but I had no intention of picking this game until the spread hit the field goal mark at the least. That has happened now and I do like the Cardinals in a tight game to come out on top.


Northern Illinois Huskies v Bowling Green Falcons Pick: This looks like being a good game to decide the MAC Championship this season and I do think the right two teams are getting the opportunity to play for the title.

Bowling Green will have their success when their Offense has the ball and they could have every chance of winning this game if they can avoid the mistakes that the Huskies Defense has relied on all season.

The Huskies have turned the ball over 27 times and giving Jordan Lynch and this Offense extra possessions will only end well for Northern Illinois. Lynch has been very good again this season and his ability to run the ball from the Quarter Back position will negate the strength of the Bowling Green Defense.

While the Falcons have been strong against the pass, I think the Huskies will be able to run the ball against them and keep the Offense in third and short situations. Those should be easier to complete for Lynch either through the air or on the ground and I think it will be tough to keep up with this Offense for Bowling Green who have been dependent on their Defense.

The Ford Field turf should also favour the speed game of Northern Illinois and they have been beating teams fairly comfortably this season. I expect the Huskies to take the title home with a Touchdown win at least in this one.


Oklahoma Sooners @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: The Oklahoma Sooners have lost a couple of road games at Texas and Baylor earlier this season in fairly comfortable fashion and I do think they are going to struggle to keep up with the Oklahoma State Cowboys in this rivalry game too. It is a shame that the spread has hit double digits now, but I still like the Cowboys to make a statement in this one.

Oklahoma's Offense doesn't match up that well with the Cowboys with their strength in the running game going against the Cowboys Defense which has given up just 3.8 yards per carry on the year. On the other hand, the Cowboys Secondary has struggled at times, but I am not sure if the Sooners can take consistent advantage of that.

The Cowboys get a lot of pressure up front and that has led to teams making mistakes against them and that is shown up by the number of Interceptions they have picked up this season. On the other hand, I think the Oklahoma State Offense can have more sustained success when they have the ball and that may prove to be the difference when this game is over.

Oklahoma State might create a couple more turnovers that leads to them covering a big spread and I like them to do that in this one.


Auburn Tigers v Missouri Tigers Pick: This is a remarkably close SEC Championship Game and while it does seem that destiny is on the side of the Auburn Tigers, especially after seeing their winning plays against Georgia and Alabama, I think Missouri are the right side in this one.

Missouri have an Offense that will be capable of moving the ball both on the ground and through the air and I can see them sustaining a few drives, although the Auburn Defense will have picked up confidence with the way they played in the second half against the Crimson Tide.

Much like the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game, I think the Auburn Offense doesn't match up that well with the Defense they will be seeing in Atlanta as Missouri are better defending the run than they are the pass. However, Auburn will look to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible to keep the team in third and manageable situations.

That is the key for Auburn as Missouri have a very strong pass rush and have been creating turnovers in the Secondary that is hard to ignore. That can be negated somewhat if Auburn have moved the ball into short yardage situations, but any time they are forced to throw the ball from third and long, Missouri could cause problems with turnovers.

Auburn have had that luck on their side in the last couple of games, but that may run out here unless it is their destiny to play in the National Championship Game, but I am taking Missouri in this one.


Florida State Seminoles v Duke Blue Devils Pick: There is no doubt that the investigation into Jameis Winston must have had some sort of affect on the Quarter Back, even if he hasn't shown that on the field. I expect the conclusion of that investigation is going to free Winston up a little more in this one and that could spell big trouble for the Duke Blue Devils.

Not many believed in Duke this season, but they have been playing pretty good football to win 8 in a row, although it is very unlikely that they can make that 9. Duke will cause some problems with the two Quarter Back system they employ in the backfield, but the Florida State Defense is as good as any in the nation.

This is also the best Offense they would be seeing and it is tough for Duke to keep up with Florida State who have so much to look forward to the rest of the way. The National Championship will inspire the Seminoles to put down a real marker for their title ambitions.

Florida State just haven't let teams hang around too much this season and I like them to beat Duke and cover the number.


Ohio State Buckeyes v Michigan State Spartans Pick: There have been some real vulnerabilities in the Ohio State team in recent games and there is no doubt that this has the making of a real Championship game in the Big Ten.

The Ohio State Buckeyes were very fortunate to come through their game against Michigan last week and I think this Michigan State Defense is going to cause them fits. They start with the running game, but Michigan State have been very effective at limiting the gains on the ground which will give them a real shot at springing the surprise.

It will also be a game where Connor Cook will feel he can help the Spartans Offense move the chains through the air, but neither team is likely going to sustain drives throughout this Championship game.

A potential low-scoring game means the points that Michigan State are getting look a touch on the high side. Turnovers could be critical and that is where Connor Cook has to maintain his composure in this one for the Spartans.

Fumbles are something you can't predict, but if Michigan State play a clean game, I think they have a real chance of winning this game outright and pushing Ohio State out of the National Championship discussion.


Utah State Aggies @ Fresno State Bulldogs Pick: It will be tough for the Fresno State Bulldogs to get up for this game after blowing their unbeaten record last week, but they will have had a week to read about their chances of winning the Mountain West Conference title and that has to inspire them.

I think it is a big bonus for the Bulldogs to have this game being played in front of their own fans as they will back their team to the hilt and also help them forget their miss-step from last week.

Derek Carr and the Offense are capable of putting up big numbers, but they have to be careful of becoming too one-dimensional in this game and allowing the Utah State Aggies focus on trying to create Interceptions or stopping the Receiver patterns being run.

My issue in this game for the Aggies is that I am not sure they have the Offense to keep up with Fresno State if Derek Carr is playing well. I give credit to Darrell Garretson in coming in and keeping the Aggies rolling into this game, but he has been conservative in his starts and that may not cut it.

If Garretson needs to start airing the ball out in a catch up attempt, he may have some success, but he may also make mistakes, while the Bulldogs pass rush could force him to throw too quickly.

That may prove to be the difference and I will back the Fresno State Bulldogs to find the right formula to win this game.

MY PICKS: Louisville Cardinals - 3 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Northern Illinois Huskies - 3 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 10 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Missouri Tigers - 1 Point @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 29.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans + 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Fresno State Bulldogs - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Week 14: 4-6, - 2 Units (10 Units Staked, - 20% Yield)
Week 135-3, + 1.77 Units (8 Units Staked, + 22.13% Yield)
Week 122-6, - 4 Units (8 Units Staked, - 50% Yield)
Week 117-2, + 4.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 51% Yield)
Week 106-3-1, + 2.69 Units (10 Units Staked, + 26.9% Yield)
Week 94-4, - 0.23 Units (8 Units Staked, - 2.86% Yield)
Week 86-2, + 3.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.75% Yield)
Week 73-6, - 3.26 Units (9 Units Staked, - 36.22% Yield)
Week 63-5, - 2.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 26% Yield)
Week 56-2, + 3.66 Units (8 Units Staked, + 45.75% Yield)
Week 42-6, - 4.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51% Yield)
Week 35-2-1, + 2.77 Units (8 Units Staked, + 34.63% Yield)
Week 26-2, + 3.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.38% Yield)
Week 14-3, + 0.74 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.57% Yield)

Season 201361-46-2, + 7.70 Units (117 Units Staked, + 6.58% Yield)

Season 201254-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 201163-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)

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