This is the final season of the BCS Bowl Games and is the start of a busy three week period where College teams will complete their seasons which will culminate in the National Championship Game between the Florida State Seminoles and Auburn Tigers.
Is that the right Championship Game? When it comes to the criteria set out by those that pick the BCS Games, I can't disagree that those two teams deserve their shot to win the big prize, but I have a nagging feeling that the best team, the Alabama Crimson Tide, are missing out.
Next season that will be less of a concern as the Play Off comes into effect, but for now I do think we will see a good National Championship Game although I have a clear favourite in mind.
Over the next three weeks, I won't have picks from every Bowl game as some of them are particularly hard to read, but hopefully it will be a post-season as successful as the last two years and will help the year end with a winning record after the disappointment of last season.
Colorado State Rams v Washington State Cougars Pick: It would be a huge surprise if this isn't a high-scoring game to open the Bowl season up in College Football as both Secondaries have struggled against the pass this season. They both combine for around 65 points per game, while they Defenses give up an average of 60 points per game combined.
The Washington State Cougars at least showed some good form down the stretch by winning 2 of their last 3 games and they are keen to give their Seniors something to remember after making the post-season for the first time in over ten years.
Washington State will also feel their Defense will find a way to create more turnovers than their Colorado State counter-parts, although they will need Connor Halliday to look after the ball better than he has for most of the season at Quarter Back for the Cougars.
If, and it is a big if, Halliday can look after the ball, I think Washington State have been playing at a much higher level than Colorado State through the season and will prove too good for the Rams. It might need a late turnover, or a big Defensive stand to see the job through, but the Cougars do look the better team and I like them to win the first Bowl game of the season and cover the spread.
USC Trojans v Fresno State Bulldogs Pick: You have to believe that both of these teams had bigger Bowls in mind at the start of the season so we could see a flat performance at times. However, I think the Fresno State Bulldogs will want to finish their season on a higher note than the USC Trojans who will be having a new Head Coach taking over for next season and have lost their inspirational Coach O.
I do think this Trojans team will expose the Defensive problems Fresno State have had for much of the season, but I also think Derek Carr and this Bulldogs Offense is capable of moving the chains.
This is a big game for Carr as he will want to escape the shadow his big brother left in the NFL, one that may put off a few suitors of his in the NFL Draft next year. Playing well against this Secondary will at least have people sit up and take notice of his chance to make it as a starter at the next level, although he will know the Trojans have been pretty good defending the pass all season.
As I said, I think motivation may be the biggest issue for USC to overcome and that means the 6 point head start for Fresno State is just high enough to keep me interested.
December 26th
Pittsburgh Panthers v Bowling Green Falcons Pick: You don't really know how teams are going to approach the Bowl Games outside of the top BCS Bowls, but you have to imagine that the Bowling Green Falcons are going to want to end their season on a high after winning the MAC Championship.
The Falcons match up well with the Pittsburgh Offense as they are better at defending the pass than the run and they may just restrict what the Panthers are able to do.
I also will be looking for Bowling Green to have slightly more success when they have the ball in their own hands and should prove too strong for Pittsburgh when they have the ball in their hands. The number is under the Touchdown mark and I think Bowling Green could cover.
Northern Illinois Huskies v Utah State Aggies Pick: Both of these teams lost their Conference Championship Game so the team that has recovered better mentally will be the one that should walk away with the win from this pick 'em game.
The fact that this is Jordan Lynch's last game for Northern Illinois should focus the Huskies in this one and I think they may have a little too Offense for the Utah State team to deal with.
Utah State will certainly feel their ability to stop the run will help them in this one, but Jordan Lynch at Quarter Back is a problem that is not easy to defend, although he may have to rely on his arm more than his feet in this one to keep the chains moving.
I also have no doubt that the Aggies will have their success with the ball in the hands of their Offense, but I will back Northern Illinois to rally around Lynch and send off their Quarter Back with one more win under their belt.
December 28th
Louisville Cardinals v Miami Hurricanes Pick: This could have been a Bowl Game with a much bigger national interest if these teams could have maintained their form from early in the season throughout the year. While the Louisville Cardinals remained solid enough outside of their one loss, the Miami Hurricanes fell apart after a loss to the unbeaten Florida State Seminoles and that not only cost them an outside shot at the National Championship, but also any chance of winning the ACC Championship.
Miami will want to prove themselves against one of the better teams they would have faced this season, but the absence of Duke Johnson has proved tough to overcome for the team.
That may prove to be the case in this one against a Louisville Defense that has generally been strong and will look to pressure Stephen Morris in the pocket. If they can keep the Hurricanes in third and long situations by shutting down the running game, the Cardinals could perhaps force Morris into mistakes that he has limited in his last four starts.
On the other hand, I think Teddy Bridgewater is going to have a strong game thanks to a rush attack that should have a lot more success than the one at Miami. By establishing that and ripping yards off on the ground, Bridgewater can use the play-action to move the ball down the field and slow down the Hurricanes pass rush just enough to make big plays.
Bridgewater is still not sure if he will make himself eligible for the NFL Draft at the end of the season, but his team mates and fans will want to show Louisville could have even more success next season if he stays and I expect a big performance from them. I like the Cardinals to cover this spread against a tough Miami team that may make one or two mistakes more that costs them the win.
Kansas State Wildcats v Michigan Wolverines Pick: There were some signs that Michigan were getting back to their best early in the season, but it ended on a sour note and even coming close to knocking off Ohio State won't satisfy a rabid fanbase that will want so much more next season.
Without Devin Gardner in this Bowl Game, it is a big ask for the Defense to step up enough and Shane Morris to plug the gap at Quarter Back as a freshman. There have been freshman successes at other schools in the last twelve months to not want to under-estimate Morris, but the Kansas State Defense has played well, while they should be able to contain the rushing attack and keep Morris in third and long situations.
That will be a problem for Michigan in this game and one where I believe Kansas State will dominate field position and also have more success moving the chains and sustaining drives.
The Wildcats should be able to have some success throwing or running the ball and may take advantage of any demoralising figures in Michigan's rank now that their Quarter Back is missing the game. Will this game mean much to the Wolverines after putting in a lot of effort to beat Ohio State? I am not sure about that motivation for a non-Conference team that they have no rivalry with and without their starting Quarter Back.
I like Kansas State to find a way to cover the spread.
December 30th
Oregon Ducks v Texas Longhorns Pick: There should be some added motivation in the Texas Longhorns team to send Mack Brown off with another win as Head Coach, but this isn't a great match up for them on paper against an explosive Oregon Ducks team.
Oregon won't be happy with the season they have put in as they have failed to achieve their goals of at least winning the Pac-12 and possibly earning another shot at the National Championship.
Marcus Mariota is coming back to school next year, but this will be as healthy as the Quarter Back has felt in a while and I think he will help the Offense earn yards through the air and on the ground against this Texas Defense.
He will need more help from the Defense himself though as the Oregon unit gave up at least 35 points in their last two games. I am not convinced Texas have enough Offense to take advantage of any lapses in concentration, although the fact their long-term Head Coach is moving on has to be a motivational took that they can use to inspire them in this one. Even with that in mind, I like Oregon to come through with a big performance.
December 31st
Virginia Tech Hokies v UCLA Bruins Pick: This looks a decent game which may come down to whether UCLA have enough to impose their Offense on the Virginia Tech Hokies.
The Hokies Defense has been strong at getting after the Quarter Back, stop the run effectively with just 3 yards per carry given up, and create turnovers, but that will all be tested by the Bruins. How they deal with Brett Hundley and his ability to run and throw the ball from the Quarter Back position is going to be key to stopping the Bruins in this one, although UCLA will point to the fact that only the very best teams in the Pac-12 have beaten them this season.
Virginia Tech should have success throwing the ball against UCLA's Secondary, but Logan Thomas has to take care of the ball better than he has for much of the season. The pressure has been on Thomas because the Hokies have struggled to run the ball and that could be the case again in this one.
If the UCLA Bruins can pin back their ears and get after Thomas, I do favour them to win this game, but the Touchdown head start may be too much to overcome.
Mississippi State Bulldogs v Rice Owls Pick: I am a little surprised that the Conference-USA Champions, the Rice Owls, are being given a Touchdown head start in this game where we could see a lot of Offense on both sides of the ball.
The Bulldogs have had a disappointing season, but they rallied with back to back overtime wins to get into this Bowl Game and that could motivate them to finish the season with a high.
Looking after the ball will be the key to winning this game for either team as both should have success moving the chains throughout the game. I think the Rice Owls can at least control the clock better than the Bulldogs I feel and that will be critical for them to cover the spread in this one.
Duke Blue Devils v Texas A&M Aggies Pick: This could be the last time Johnny Football takes the field in the College Football ranks, although Manziel has suggested he may come back to College Station if he is not going to be picked in the First Round.
It has been an exciting, but ultimately disappointing season for the Aggies who may have been looking to push for a place in the National Championship Game but finished with an 8-4 record. The Duke Blue Devils may be more known in basketball circles, but they have had a strong season and won't be disheartened by the defeat against the Florida State Seminoles.
Anything other than a high-scoring game would be a shock, and both teams may also turn the ball over, but I think ultimately Johnny Manziel makes more plays and signs off on a two year strong career at this level with the win for the Aggies and the cover.
January 1st
LSU Tigers v Iowa Hawkeyes Pick: Zach Mettenberger is out for the Tigers after suffering an ACL injury, but Les Miles believes his team won't miss a beat against a Big Ten school that may struggle to cope with the 'big boy' football played in the SEC.
Anthony Jennings will be Quarter Back for LSU and he has been given high praise from Miles and I believe the Tigers Offense won't miss too much of a beat. Much of their success will come on the ground, even though Iowa's Defense played that well this season and that should keep Jennings in a good position to make third down conversions to keep the chains moving.
I do think Iowa will be able to have some success with the ball in their hands too, but they haven't played many Defenses as good as LSU's this season and were beaten fairly easily by the leading teams in the Big Ten, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State.
The Tigers can match up with those three and I like them to cover.
Stanford Cardinal v Michigan State Spartans Pick: Any time two Defensive powerhouses like these teams meet, the likelihood of it being a low-scoring game means taking the points on the underdog is the way to go.
That is especially true where Michigan State are getting almost a Touchdown head start in this one and I like the Spartans to keep it close, even if they can't quite get the win.
Both teams are very effective at shutting down the running game, but don't be surprised if both stubbornly continue pounding the rock which will take time off the clock and mean teams will have to sustain long drives to score.
The Spartans should have the edge when it comes to throwing the ball, although their Defensive unit may miss Max Bullough who is the Quarter Back for that unit. That may give Stanford just enough room to secure a win, but the Spartans will make it tough throughout the game and I'll take the points.
UCF Knights v Baylor Bears: There are a number of Bowl Games being played on New Year's Day, but the most exciting one Offensively could come in the final game of the day between the UCF Knights and the Baylor Bears.
Both schools have Quarter Backs that should have a big impact on this Bowl Game, although I think the difference may come in the Defensive play with the Baylor Bears unit capable of turning over the ball and also stopping the ground attack.
Making the UCF Knights one-dimensional will give Baylor a great chance to get the ball in the hands of their Offense in good field position in this game and it looks a tougher ask for the Knights Defense to do the same for UCF.
The Knights did surprise Louisville to win the American Atlantic Conference, but Baylor have an even better Offense and I like them to win this one big.
January 2nd
Oklahoma Sooners v Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: It wasn't much fun watching LSU give up a 96 yard kick return when leading by 14 and less than two minutes left in the game, nor some of the ticky-tacky calls being made against Baylor that didn't seem to be produced when UCF did something similar.
Hopefully the Alabama Crimson Tide have picked themselves up from the disappointment of missing their chance to play for the National Championship again because I do think they are the better team and should have the motivation to end AJ McCarron's career at this level on a high.
McCarron is expected to miss the Senior Bowl so this is his last chance to show NFL scouts what he has in his locker, but I don't expect him to be more than a Second/Third Round pick in the Draft.
The Quarter Back should be able to make nice plays in this one thanks to the Alabama running game which should have lanes to pick up huge yards. That means McCarron can make plays from third and short situations and it will be tough for the Sooners Defense to slow them down.
If the Crimson Tide are fully focused, you have to think they can expose the uncertainty at the Oklahoma Quarter Back position by shutting down the run game and forcing the Sooners to throw. It as been a tough season for Bob Stoops and his team when throwing the ball and I don't think they will have a lot of joy with this Defense in front of them. Alabama stay checked in, I think they cover.
January 6th
Florida State Seminoles v Auburn Tigers Pick: This is the right game to decide the National Championship, although I won't lie and say I can't wait for the Play Offs next season as I do believe that is a much fairer way of deciding a title with the Conferences as split as they are at the NCAA level.
The Auburn Tigers have played well at times, but there is no doubt that they have ridden their luck too in their wins over Georgia and Alabama, the former much more than the latter. However, this Defense they are facing is one of the better ones they would have seen this season and I expect the Coaches to have studied the tape of the LSU Tigers game against Auburn to find a way to keep Nick Marshall and the Offense contained.
It is tough to pass against the Seminoles and I think the bigger problem for the Tigers is finding a way to slow down Jameis Winston and this Florida State Offense. Auburn have struggled against the pass and the rush for much of the season and I think the Seminoles will expose those problems and end the recent domination of the National Championship by the SEC.
Florida State have blown out almost every team they have played and score plenty of points. I think Auburn make it competitive for a while, but the pressure of keeping up with the scoreboard pressure may prove too much for the Tigers to overcome. The Seminoles to win this one and cover the spread is my choice.
MY PICKS: 21/12 Washington State Cougars - 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
21/12 Fresno State Bulldogs + 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
26/12 Bowling Green Falcons - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
26/12 Northern Illinois Huskies @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
28/12 Louisville Cardinals - 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/12 Kansas State Wildcats - 7 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
30/12 Oregon Ducks - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
31/12 Virginia Tech Hokies + 7 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
31/12 Rice Owls + 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
31/12 Texas A&M Aggies - 13 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
01/01 LSU Tigers - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
01/01 Michigan State Spartans + 6.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
01/01 Baylor Bears - 17 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
02/01 Alabama Crimson Tide - 17 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
06/01 Florida State Seminoles - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Bowl Games Update: 4-11, - 6.95 Units
Week 15: 4-3, + 0.79 Units (7 Units Staked, + 11.29% Yield)
Week 14: 4-6, - 2 Units (10 Units Staked, - 20% Yield)
Week 13: 5-3, + 1.77 Units (8 Units Staked, + 22.13% Yield)
Week 12: 2-6, - 4 Units (8 Units Staked, - 50% Yield)
Week 11: 7-2, + 4.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 51% Yield)
Week 10: 6-3-1, + 2.69 Units (10 Units Staked, + 26.9% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.23 Units (8 Units Staked, - 2.86% Yield)
Week 8: 6-2, + 3.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.75% Yield)
Week 7: 3-6, - 3.26 Units (9 Units Staked, - 36.22% Yield)
Week 6: 3-5, - 2.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 26% Yield)
Week 5; 6-2, + 3.66 Units (8 Units Staked, + 45.75% Yield)
Week 4: 2-6, - 4.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2-1, + 2.77 Units (8 Units Staked, + 34.63% Yield)
Week 2: 6-2, + 3.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.38% Yield)
Week 1: 4-3, + 0.74 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.57% Yield)
Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
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