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Tuesday 10 December 2013

Midweek Football Picks 2013 (December 10-12)

The final round of Champions League and Europa League Group games are to be played during the week and while the English clubs all look set to qualify for the last 16 in the Champions League, it is still an important time for them to pick up some momentum.

That is especially true for Manchester United and David Moyes who can't afford to drop his third home game in a row in the space of less than seven days. The result against Everton was a touch unfortunate, but the performance against Newcastle United was nothing like what is expected at Old Trafford, while United also trying to secure top spot in this Group.

Arsenal are the only English club that is yet to secure their passage into the last 16 despite having more points than Chelsea or Manchester United in their Groups, but it would take a big loss in Naples for them to be in danger of exiting the competition.

Generally the big names are all set to progress, which makes finishing top of the Group that much more important for the sides going for it... However, knowing Moyes' luck so far and the pressure he is under, United will likely draw either Dortmund or Juventus in the next round.


Benfica v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: The chance of qualifying for the last 16 is no longer in the hands of Benfica who have to hope that Anderlecht can get some sort of result in Olympiacos as a win for the home team in that game would see the Portuguese former European Cup winners exit the competition.

It has been made clear that Benfica are concentrating mainly on winning their domestic title, but progressing in the Champions League does provide a financial boost for the club, although they have secured a place in the Europa League. They reached the Final of that competition last season, but for now they are concentrating on trying to get as far in the Champions League as possible.

Benfica will feel they will be too strong for a second string Paris Saint-Germain team that will visit Lisbon after securing top spot in the Group. They have a decent record at home in Europe, but I don't think PSG should be under-estimated as a lot of their second team would have an impact at other clubs around Europe.

The theory also goes that Benfica could drop their heads if they hear Olympiacos are winning, but PSG's only defeat in the last couple of years away from home in the Champions League also came in Portugal. I think the Stadium of Light will keep the home team going forward in this one and I do think Benfica will come away with a win, even if they do exit the competition.


Galatasaray v Juventus Pick: Playing in front of the passionate support they receive is usually a big bonus for Galatasaray and the Turkish sides in general, but I feel it could play against them in this game. The fans won't show the patience that Roberto Mancini has urged from his side and they will want Galatasaray to get amongst Juventus and get ahead early in the contest.

While the manager may be asking for patience, the players could be forgiven for losing their discipline with the fans asking them to get forward and that may play into the hands of this Juventus team.

Long gone are the days when Italian clubs would sit back and try and defend what they have- even though a draw will be enough for Juventus to get out of the Group, the Italian giants are unlikely to look to defend to earn a goalless draw.

They have players that can be very effective on the counter and I think Juventus have defended with enough discipline to then exploit spaces that may open up. If Galatasaray get desperate, Juventus have shown they can get forward and score goals, as they did late in their last 16 game with Celtic last season.

Juventus don't win many away games in the Champions League, which does make their odds of winning this game a little short, but I think they can match a win in Shakhtar Donetsk in the last game of the Group last season. Galatasaray could become a little desperate to score as the game goes on and Juventus may capatalise and will be worth backing to win here.


Olympiacos v Anderlecht Pick: You have to feel this is a perfect place for Olympiacos to ensure they book their place in the last 16, but anything less than a win would open the door for Benfica to sneak in front of them.

It won't be an easy game for Olympiacos as Anderlecht have proven to be a far more difficult side to break down on their travels than at home where the onus is on them to attack.

However, I do think Olympiacos have proven to be a very comfortable team at home in the Champions League and that includes beating the likes of Borussia Dortmund and Arsenal here over the last couple of years. Olympiacos have scored plenty of goals at home in recent games and it may be tough for an Anderlecht team to keep up, especially with the lack of motivation to get back into a game if they fall behind.

Olympiacos have won plenty of games here by a couple of goals and I think they can see off Anderlecht with a similar performance in this one.


Manchester United v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: It has been a hard week for David Moyes as manager of Manchester United as they have slipped up twice in quick succession, while the manner of the defeat to Newcastle United was of particular disappointment.

However, the manager will feel there are some positives in returning to Champions League action as that is where his Manchester United team have produced their best performances of the season. There is no pressure on this game with qualification to the last 16 already assured, but United will want to finish top of the Group.

David Moyes will also be able to pair Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney together for the first time since the 1-0 win over Arsenal and I can see the two producing something creative for the home side. United will also benefit from the fact that Shakhtar Donetsk can't afford to sit back and hope Bayer Leverkusen fail to beat an eliminated Real Sociedad and there may be more space to exploit than they would see in a Premier League game.

United have put together their best performances in this competition and I can see them picking up a morale boosting win in this one. They might not need a win to go through, but for confidence David Moyes will be hoping they can do that. I expect Shakhtar to cause problems, but they may be caught on the counter as they look to earn a result if they hear a different score coming from Spain.

At odds against, United do look worth chancing to earn a win in this one.


Chelsea v Steaua Bucharest Pick: Chelsea have responded well to their last 2 defeats over the last month and I am expecting them to get back on the horse in this one after the loss at Stoke City.

They should be too strong for Steaua Bucharest, especially as I am expecting a fair few of the first team to start in this one to ensure Chelsea finish top of the Group. They have scored plenty of goals at Stamford Bridge since the loss to Basel and the strikers have actually performed better in the Champions League than they have in the Premier League for the most part this season.

I don't think it will be straight-forward because Steaua Bucharest have been tougher to play away from home in recent weeks, but they were beaten comfortably in Schalke earlier in the campaign.

With the way Chelsea have been defending, I don't really want to be on them to cover the large looking Asian Handicaps, but I think the bigger price on them scoring at least 3 goals has to be considered.

Chelsea have hit that total in 3 of their last 5 home games and also hit at least that number in their last 2 games against Steaua Bucharest over the last nine months. With top spot up for grabs, I think Jose Mourinho will look to use this game as a confidence builder for the next month of football to be played and I can see Chelsea reaching 3 goals in this game.


Napoli v Arsenal Pick: This is a more important game for Napoli than it is for Arsenal when it comes to qualifying for the last 16 of the Champions League, especially as they need a big win to secure their place in the next round.

While Arsenal can afford a single goal loss, Arsene Wenger will be aware of the importance of finishing top of the Group, particularly this season and his Arsenal side have been burnt by that failure in the past.

The pressure is on Napoli to win this game and that could leave gaps to be exploited by Arsenal as the game goes on. You do have to respect the home record of Napoli in the Champions League and they have beaten Dortmund and Marseille here this season, but Arsenal have won 4 in a row away from home in the competition and they have the speed on the counter to make it five in a row in a game where the home team have to push on.

Of course, Arsenal have a big game on Saturday to prepare for, but I don't foresee Arsene Wenger making too many changes to his first team with qualification not 100% confirmed, and I do think Arsenal can win this one and are worth chancing.

MY PICKS: Benfica @ 2.20 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Juventus @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Olympiacos - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester United @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Chelsea Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
Arsenal @ 2.88 Coral (1 Unit)

December Update5-5-1, + 3.01 Units (15 Units Staked, + 20.07% Yield)

November Final17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/1463-63-1, + 2.55 Units (200 Units Staked, + 1.28% Yield)
Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

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