In fact, out of the 8 Divisional leaders at the start of Week 15, 6 were beaten outright let alone fail to cover the spread as the likes of Denver, New Orleans, Philadelphia and Detroit all lost as pretty big favourites.
It happens sometimes that all the 'Any Given Sunday' nature of the NFL is highlighted in one weekend, but that leaves a number of questions for those teams and their Play Off ambitions going into the final two weeks of the season.
Week 15 Thoughts
So many Play Off implications: What can you say about Week 15 when it comes to Play Off implications through the NFL? Every where you looked, teams wins and losses have pushed others into more difficult positions and that is shown by the uncertainty of the seedings as we go into the final two weeks of the season.
Seattle have locked up home-field advantage in the NFC if they can win one more game or San Francisco fail to win one of their last two games, but that is the only team that I would be confident of picking their spot in the seedings.
New Orleans lost last week and will likely be the Number 5 seed if they fail to beat Carolina this weekend, while the Panthers would then receive a bye into the Divisional Round with two wins. The NFC North and East are wide open Divisions that will secure Number 3 and Number 4, but it is anyone's guess as to which sides land where.
The AFC is no easier as Denver were shocked last Thursday Night to open the door for New England or even Kansas City to finish with home-field advantage through the Play Offs, while teams like Cincinnati could finish with the Number 1 seed or fail to even reach the post-season depending on whether they win or lose their remaining two games.
This should be another exciting weekend as some aspects of the Play Offs will certainly be cleared up, but right now there are a number of teams that will feel they are in control of their own destiny if they can win out.
Who is more likely to shoot themselves in the foot- Detroit or Dallas? I've very rarely seen two teams like the Lions and Cowboys who seem to find the most bizarre ways to try and screw up their own chances.
The Cowboys are at least still have their own destiny in their hands as they will win the NFC East if they win out, although I wouldn't be rushing to back them to do that. On the other hand, Detroit looked to have total control in the NFC North after sweeping Chicago and beating Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day, but they have faltered badly in the last couple of weeks and now need help to get back into the Play Offs.
Both teams are guilty of doing stupid things, be it penalties to stall drives or bad play-calling that results in getting away from a very effective running game and leading to Interceptions.
The fans are unhappy and there are rumours that the Head Coaches of both teams will be shown the door if they do fail to reach the Play Offs, and things need to change drastically if they are to get back into the Play Off mix.
Watch out for the crazy plays: There are a few teams that have nothing to lose in the final couple of weeks of the season and they are dangerous not just for their care-free attitude, but the fact that the play-callers will dial up the funky plays to keep the chains moving.
These teams will regularly go for their fourth down conversions, will utilise fake punts and also the onside kick.
We saw St Louis use the onside kick in the first quarter against the New Orleans Saints last week and over the years you will see strange results and crazy plays working to keep teams moving the chains and it is something to consider when capping the last couple of weeks.
My Play Off teams: For the first time in a while, I have seen changes in my Play Off predictions because of all the weird results last week.
AFC- 1) Denver, 2) New England, 3) Cincinnati, 4) Indianapolis, 5) Kansas City, 6) Miami
NFC- 1) Seattle, 2) Carolina, 3) Philadelphia, 4) Green Bay, 5) New Orleans, 6) San Francisco
Top Ten
1) Seattle Seahawks (12-2): Going to be tough to knock them off at home once they look up the Number 1 seed in the NFC.
2) Denver Broncos (11-3): Defense has to play a lot better to reach the Super Bowl let alone win it.
3) San Francisco 49ers (10-4): Improving at the right time and getting healthier for a deep Play Off run.
4) Kansas City Chiefs (11-3): Not convinced, but beginning to put up big Offensive numbers.
5) Carolina Panthers (10-4): Will know all we need to know after their game with New Orleans this weekend.
6) New Orleans Saints (10-4): This is a huge game for the Saints as a loss will likely mean they need to win 3 road games to make the Play Offs.
7) New England Patriots (10-4): I don't think they have enough talent around Tom Brady to win it all, but still a dangerous team in one off games, especially at home.
8) Arizona Cardinals (9-5): Big ask to make the Play Offs and will be very disappointed to miss out with the way they have been playing down the stretch on both sides of the ball.
9) Cincinnati Bengals (9-5): A bad loss at Pittsburgh and will miss out on the post-season with two losses and Miami and Baltimore to win out... Home games with Minnesota and Baltimore should see them avoid that fate.
10) Chicago Bears (8-6): Could win the NFC North this weekend with a win at Philadelphia and defeats for Green Bay and Detroit, but most likely to go down to the home game against the Packers in Week 17.
Bottom Five
32) Houston Texans (2-12): Twelve straight losses and home date with the top team in the AFC.
31) Washington Redskins (3-11): Another loss, although at least showed signs of life and can try and ruin Dallas' season this week.
30) Oakland Radiers (4-10): Heavy defeat at home and rumours of a Coaching change coming.
29) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10): Signs that Gus Bradley could turn this organisation around, but a big Draft coming.
28) Cleveland Browns (4-10): Injuries have taken their toll and this team is still rebuilding.
Week 16 Picks
It was a bad week last time around, but a number of surprising results meant it was always going to be a tough week to keep the winning run going. It was actually my worst week since Week 6, but the season has still been successful so far and I just want to end the regular season with the positives of the season intact.
This week there are big games taking place all over the United States and we will know a lot more about which twelve teams will be playing in January.
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: With these two teams currently in Number 4 and Number 5 spots in the AFC, there is every chance that they will be playing one another in the Wild Card Weekend of the Play Offs in two weeks time, albeit in Indianapolis.
That may make Chuck Pegano play this game a little more conservatively so not to give the Chiefs too many looks at what they will expect to see in two weeks time, while the game is certainly more important for Kansas City who could still win home-field advantage through the Play Offs with two wins and a loss for Denver.
Andy Reid's team has picked up Offensively in recent weeks and Jamaal Charles could have another big game following his exploits from last week against Oakland. The Colts have struggled to stop the run and are not getting off the field on third downs, while Charles is also a big threat coming out of the backfield to catch passes and rip of huge gains from space.
Indianapolis should have some success running the ball themselves, but there is still too much inconsistency from the Offense in the absence of Reggie Wayne. The game simply doesn't mean as much to the Colts and I will take a small interest in the Chiefs to win this game and cover the spread.
Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The Minnesota Vikings players may not be using the 'spoiler' word in the locker room, but they have certainly been doing that for the likes of Chicago and Philadelphia, while the recent tie with the Green Bay Packers could potentially keep that Divisional rival out of the Play Offs.
Minnesota are playing well and I do think they can cause Cincinnati some problems, but the Bengals Defense is also better than the ones Matt Cassel has seen since returning as the starting Quarter Back. The running game may struggle to get established which means the pressure is on Cassel to make the plays with his arm and I am not completely convinced he can do that with sustained success.
I also think it will be tough for the Vikings Defense to keep this Bengals team from scoring points with the whole team perhaps beginning to be worn down, although the pass rush has heated up somewhat of late.
Andy Dalton should help the Bengals move the chains with his arm against this Secondary, while whoever starts at Running Back may find more running lanes than if they would have played Minnesota earlier in the season.
The game also means that much more to Cincinnati who won't want to leave their post-season chances down to the last game and will want to build some momentum after a poor loss at Pittsburgh last week. While Minnesota have been playing much better of late, there is also a chance that this team saves its remaining energy for the Week 17 tilt with the Detroit Lions at home.
The chance to knock out a desperate Divisional rival will keep the team motivated, but may also see them overlook this game on the road as it is between two big home games. The spread is a big one, but I do fancy the Bengals to win this one by double digits so will back them to cover and potentially put one foot into the Play Offs.
Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans Pick: As good as Denver have looked for much of the season, I would be concerned about their Defense if the fans are already thinking about booking flights to New York for early February. When the games in January get going, Denver have to find a way to get off the field and get the ball back in the hands of Peyton Manning if they are to get through a couple of games, at the least, to get to the Super Bowl.
I don't think it will be as much of a problem for Peyton Manning and Denver in this game against a Houston team that will be missing their two Running Backs and also have a Quarter Back under Center that the fans will be heckling as they have all season. I expect the Broncos Defense to be able to at least control the Houston drives, while they could also turn the ball over if Schaub hasn't learnt how to protect the ball more effectively.
I also believe Manning and the Denver Offense will have been able to learn from the mistakes they made against San Diego in their last game and I fully expect them to get back on track. Manning is in line to smash Tom Brady's record of Touchdown passes thrown in an individual season and also reach 5000 passing yards for the first time, with both potentially occurring in this game.
Denver should be able to score points on a Defense that has struggled to contain Andrew Luck and Tom Brady in games over the last three weeks and the indoor track should only aid the Broncos further. There is plenty of motivation for Denver to win this game with the Number 1 seed on the line and I think they see off Houston and cover this spread.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Pick: They might not be going to the Play Offs yet again, but the Buffalo Bills would love to play spoiler for two Divisional rivals down the stretch starting with this home game against the Miami Dolphins.
EJ Manuel can't go this week, but Thad Lewis will come in as Quarter Back knowing his only win as a starter came against the Dolphins earlier this season. He is similar to Manuel in the way Lewis plays the game, although he is not as talented as the rookie from Florida State.
It might not be a repeat for Lewis in winning against the Dolphins again though as the Miami Defense has been playing at a very high level. Miami will get pressure up front, while the Defense has played the run a little better in recent games and may be able to keep tabs on CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson out of the backfield.
I also don't think the Bills will be able to move the ball at will through the air now Stevie Johnson is ruled out and the way the Miami Secondary has played, even through some injuries to starting players in those positions.
Ryan Tannehill will also be under pressure, while the weather in December in Buffalo is tough to negotiate. However, Miami have found a real running game in recent weeks and I think they can pound the Bills up front and keep the Offense in third and manageable situations. That should negate the pass rush just enough for Miami to fling the ball downfield, although it has to be said that Buffalo's Secondary is also much improved since players have returned from injuries.
This will certainly be a close game, but I do like the Dolphins to come through for a small interest.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers Pick: This is a big statement game for the New Orleans Saints who would need to wrap up the Number 2 seed in the NFC to give them a real chance to win the Conference Championship and earn the right to play in the Super Bowl next February.
There is no doubt that it would be easier for the Saints to win this one road game which would earn them the NFC South title than it would be to win a potential three road games to get through to the Super Bowl in the Play Offs.
Sean Payton and Drew Brees will not be happy to hear everyone talking about their poor record on the road, particularly the fact they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games including at teams with losing records like the New York Jets and the St Louis Rams.
Brees will know he has what it takes to beat this Secondary with the weapons New Orleans have, but the conditions won't be the best for the passing game if the wind and rain sweep through the early afternoon in Carolina. The running game is not dominant enough to keep the Saints going in this one, but I still expect some big plays to be made to the Receiving corps at his disposal.
The Saints will need Brees to avoid the turnovers that have hurt him on the road and have led to losses for New Orleans, but I expect a response from the poor performance at St Louis which had embarrassed Payton and co.
I also expect a much better performance from Carolina than the one they put in during Week 14 on the road at New Orleans, but they have to punctuate drives with Touchdowns and not Field Goals if they are to win this game. Ron Rivera will gamble I feel, but I also think Sean Payton and the Saints are going to have a much better reaction than they did in their game with St Louis.
Maybe this upcoming game took away the focus required from New Orleans that was required, but I want the points on my side in this one.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins Pick: There isn't much you can say about the Dallas Cowboys and their poor performances in their last couple of games which has left them in a precarious position in the NFC East, although still in control of their own destiny. However, they have to win out now to guarantee a place in the Play Offs, while a loss in this one will open the door for the Philadelphia Eagles to secure the Division with a win in the late game.
Dallas won't want to be watching the late game with sweaty palms and I do think they will be good enough to beat a Washington Redskins team that has swept a few issues under the carpet with a close to Atlanta last week.
But it was another loss and as much as Washington will want to knock off the Cowboys, it is a big ask for them to do so. I do think Alfred Morris will have a big game, but Dallas have shown they have been capable of turning the ball over and those extra possessions may prove to the be the difference in the game.
The best thing to happen to the Coaches could be the expected weather on Sunday afternoon which will make it tough to throw the ball with consistency and that means Dallas will use DeMarco Murray to the extent he deserves. While there have been some concerns about how much of a workload he can carry, Murray has been battering Defenses and should be able to keep the Cowboys moving the ball in this one.
It will also ease the pressure on Tony Romo who can sometimes push too hard, which causes mistakes, although the Quarter Back will also feel he can have a big game against this Secondary.
Kirk Cousins will have success too, but can he avoid the mistakes behind this Offensive Line to keep Washington in front in this game. Personally I think this is going to be a close game, but I just like the Dallas team enough to win this game and cover, although I am disappointed that the spread has hit the key number of 3 after being at 2.5 for much of the week.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Going against the Seattle Seahawks in their home stadium is a quick path to the poor house, but I can't help think that Arizona have been given too many points in this one.
As well as Seattle have played all season, the Cardinals have been in tremendous form themselves in recent weeks and are a desperate team trying to rally for a place in the Play Offs. There is every chance they can still make the post-season, but will likely need to win out and get some help from elsewhere, but they should remain focused here and also will want to erase the memories of their 58-0 beating here last season.
Carson Palmer will be under some pressure, and he will certainly be hoping that Larry Fitzgerald is cleared in time to play, but he could have some success passing the ball if he plays as well as he has in recent weeks.
More importantly, I think the Arizona Defense is playing at a very high level and could do enough to at least limit the Seattle Offense, as long as Palmer and the Offense don't turn the ball over in bad areas. Marshawn Lynch's impact may not be as great with the way Arizona have played the run, and Russell Wilson may be under pressure and forced to throw into a Secondary that is much improved.
I do think Seattle will have too much in their locker and will come through, but they may be given a scare first. I will look for Palmer and the Arizona Offense to at least reach 17 points in this one and that may be too big a number for Seattle to cover.
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions Pick: This game is clearly one that could very much be decided on which of the two teams looks after the ball the most effectively. Eli Manning leads the NFL with the number of Interceptions thrown, but Matthew Stafford has been guilty of seeing some of his passes ending up in the wrong hands and that effectively has cost Detroit the chance to control their own destiny in the NFL.
Detroit have the Offense to put up plenty of points if they can avoid the mistakes that cost them the game against Baltimore, although Stafford could do with some help from Receivers not called Calvin Johnson. It has become clear that Stafford will force the ball in Megatron's direction in pressure situations and that has seen teams jump routes which could potentially be a problem against a Giants Defense that hasn't given up despite the 5-9 record.
However, Manning has been guilty of making a lot of obvious mistakes and I do think he will struggle to sustain drives and is likely to turn the ball over in this one. Victor Cruz is out to make life easier for the Detroit Secondary, especially as Eli Manning hasn't had the same connection with Hakeem Nicks and Rueben Randle is still developing.
Andre Brown could have a big game, but it becomes a vicious circle for the Giants when they are behind and need to throw to get back into the game. Eli Manning will also be pressured all day by the Defensive Line of the Lions and I think Detroit will also play a cleaner game with the pressure effectively off their shoulders after back to back losses.
If Manning does throw Interceptions in bad areas, Detroit should take advantage of short fields and I think the Lions win this one big with Matt Stafford avoiding the turnovers that blighted his game on Monday Night Football.
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: It is not often that the New England Patriots will lose back to back games with Tom Brady under Center and they certainly can't afford to slip up again if they want to secure a bye in the first round of the Play Offs.
Facing the Baltimore Ravens is perhaps not what they needed right now as the Ravens have played them tough each time they have met the last few years including a win in the Play Off last season and a home win against New England last year.
However, Baltimore's Offense has continued to struggle to put up Touchdowns and that will give Brady and co a real chance of springing what would be considered a surprise. Brady should have a more effective running game on his side which will at least keep the yards being churned out, although the Ravens pressure up front and the Secondary could disrupt the passing game.
As I said though, Baltimore's Offense settles for Field Goals so often and I think Joe Flacco will find it tough to find his Receivers. The long pass has struggled to show up, while Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce haven't helped out by struggling to get the rushing game established to the extent that Defenses have to respect it.
This has all the makings of another close game and I do think it is worth having the points onside, although only for a small interest under the key number of 3.
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: This is the final game at Candlestick Park, barring a Week 17 which sees the 49ers overtake the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West, and I expect San Francisco to put on a performance for their fans.
They should be far too good for the Atlanta Falcons who may potentially be looking ahead to playing spoiler for the Carolina Panthers next week, while the talent levels are far apart for each team going into this game.
Colin Kaepernick should have a big game with Michael Crabtree back to join Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin in the passing game that should be able to dissect a Atlanta Secondary that has struggled all season. With the power running game expected to get established, I like Kaepernick's chances to hit passes downfield and have a big game at Quarter Back with the 49ers building a lot of momentum going into the Play Offs.
The 49ers have the motivation of clinching a Play Off place without the headache of having to win in Arizona for that place and I expect a much better performance than the Chicago Bears put in against Philadelphia on Sunday night.
I also think the injuries in the Atlanta roster won't help the Falcons and I think Matt Ryan will be under pressure throughout the game and may struggle to move the chains with consistency. Steven Jackson won't be as big a factor as he has been in recent games. I don't think the Falcons can keep up as San Francisco look to say goodbye to their home for what could be the last time and I like the 49ers to win big.
MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 9 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 10 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints + 3 Points @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 3 Points @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 10 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 10 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New England Patriots + 2 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 14 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: With these two teams currently in Number 4 and Number 5 spots in the AFC, there is every chance that they will be playing one another in the Wild Card Weekend of the Play Offs in two weeks time, albeit in Indianapolis.
That may make Chuck Pegano play this game a little more conservatively so not to give the Chiefs too many looks at what they will expect to see in two weeks time, while the game is certainly more important for Kansas City who could still win home-field advantage through the Play Offs with two wins and a loss for Denver.
Andy Reid's team has picked up Offensively in recent weeks and Jamaal Charles could have another big game following his exploits from last week against Oakland. The Colts have struggled to stop the run and are not getting off the field on third downs, while Charles is also a big threat coming out of the backfield to catch passes and rip of huge gains from space.
Indianapolis should have some success running the ball themselves, but there is still too much inconsistency from the Offense in the absence of Reggie Wayne. The game simply doesn't mean as much to the Colts and I will take a small interest in the Chiefs to win this game and cover the spread.
Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The Minnesota Vikings players may not be using the 'spoiler' word in the locker room, but they have certainly been doing that for the likes of Chicago and Philadelphia, while the recent tie with the Green Bay Packers could potentially keep that Divisional rival out of the Play Offs.
Minnesota are playing well and I do think they can cause Cincinnati some problems, but the Bengals Defense is also better than the ones Matt Cassel has seen since returning as the starting Quarter Back. The running game may struggle to get established which means the pressure is on Cassel to make the plays with his arm and I am not completely convinced he can do that with sustained success.
I also think it will be tough for the Vikings Defense to keep this Bengals team from scoring points with the whole team perhaps beginning to be worn down, although the pass rush has heated up somewhat of late.
Andy Dalton should help the Bengals move the chains with his arm against this Secondary, while whoever starts at Running Back may find more running lanes than if they would have played Minnesota earlier in the season.
The game also means that much more to Cincinnati who won't want to leave their post-season chances down to the last game and will want to build some momentum after a poor loss at Pittsburgh last week. While Minnesota have been playing much better of late, there is also a chance that this team saves its remaining energy for the Week 17 tilt with the Detroit Lions at home.
The chance to knock out a desperate Divisional rival will keep the team motivated, but may also see them overlook this game on the road as it is between two big home games. The spread is a big one, but I do fancy the Bengals to win this one by double digits so will back them to cover and potentially put one foot into the Play Offs.
Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans Pick: As good as Denver have looked for much of the season, I would be concerned about their Defense if the fans are already thinking about booking flights to New York for early February. When the games in January get going, Denver have to find a way to get off the field and get the ball back in the hands of Peyton Manning if they are to get through a couple of games, at the least, to get to the Super Bowl.
I don't think it will be as much of a problem for Peyton Manning and Denver in this game against a Houston team that will be missing their two Running Backs and also have a Quarter Back under Center that the fans will be heckling as they have all season. I expect the Broncos Defense to be able to at least control the Houston drives, while they could also turn the ball over if Schaub hasn't learnt how to protect the ball more effectively.
I also believe Manning and the Denver Offense will have been able to learn from the mistakes they made against San Diego in their last game and I fully expect them to get back on track. Manning is in line to smash Tom Brady's record of Touchdown passes thrown in an individual season and also reach 5000 passing yards for the first time, with both potentially occurring in this game.
Denver should be able to score points on a Defense that has struggled to contain Andrew Luck and Tom Brady in games over the last three weeks and the indoor track should only aid the Broncos further. There is plenty of motivation for Denver to win this game with the Number 1 seed on the line and I think they see off Houston and cover this spread.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Pick: They might not be going to the Play Offs yet again, but the Buffalo Bills would love to play spoiler for two Divisional rivals down the stretch starting with this home game against the Miami Dolphins.
EJ Manuel can't go this week, but Thad Lewis will come in as Quarter Back knowing his only win as a starter came against the Dolphins earlier this season. He is similar to Manuel in the way Lewis plays the game, although he is not as talented as the rookie from Florida State.
It might not be a repeat for Lewis in winning against the Dolphins again though as the Miami Defense has been playing at a very high level. Miami will get pressure up front, while the Defense has played the run a little better in recent games and may be able to keep tabs on CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson out of the backfield.
I also don't think the Bills will be able to move the ball at will through the air now Stevie Johnson is ruled out and the way the Miami Secondary has played, even through some injuries to starting players in those positions.
Ryan Tannehill will also be under pressure, while the weather in December in Buffalo is tough to negotiate. However, Miami have found a real running game in recent weeks and I think they can pound the Bills up front and keep the Offense in third and manageable situations. That should negate the pass rush just enough for Miami to fling the ball downfield, although it has to be said that Buffalo's Secondary is also much improved since players have returned from injuries.
This will certainly be a close game, but I do like the Dolphins to come through for a small interest.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers Pick: This is a big statement game for the New Orleans Saints who would need to wrap up the Number 2 seed in the NFC to give them a real chance to win the Conference Championship and earn the right to play in the Super Bowl next February.
There is no doubt that it would be easier for the Saints to win this one road game which would earn them the NFC South title than it would be to win a potential three road games to get through to the Super Bowl in the Play Offs.
Sean Payton and Drew Brees will not be happy to hear everyone talking about their poor record on the road, particularly the fact they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games including at teams with losing records like the New York Jets and the St Louis Rams.
Brees will know he has what it takes to beat this Secondary with the weapons New Orleans have, but the conditions won't be the best for the passing game if the wind and rain sweep through the early afternoon in Carolina. The running game is not dominant enough to keep the Saints going in this one, but I still expect some big plays to be made to the Receiving corps at his disposal.
The Saints will need Brees to avoid the turnovers that have hurt him on the road and have led to losses for New Orleans, but I expect a response from the poor performance at St Louis which had embarrassed Payton and co.
I also expect a much better performance from Carolina than the one they put in during Week 14 on the road at New Orleans, but they have to punctuate drives with Touchdowns and not Field Goals if they are to win this game. Ron Rivera will gamble I feel, but I also think Sean Payton and the Saints are going to have a much better reaction than they did in their game with St Louis.
Maybe this upcoming game took away the focus required from New Orleans that was required, but I want the points on my side in this one.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins Pick: There isn't much you can say about the Dallas Cowboys and their poor performances in their last couple of games which has left them in a precarious position in the NFC East, although still in control of their own destiny. However, they have to win out now to guarantee a place in the Play Offs, while a loss in this one will open the door for the Philadelphia Eagles to secure the Division with a win in the late game.
Dallas won't want to be watching the late game with sweaty palms and I do think they will be good enough to beat a Washington Redskins team that has swept a few issues under the carpet with a close to Atlanta last week.
But it was another loss and as much as Washington will want to knock off the Cowboys, it is a big ask for them to do so. I do think Alfred Morris will have a big game, but Dallas have shown they have been capable of turning the ball over and those extra possessions may prove to the be the difference in the game.
The best thing to happen to the Coaches could be the expected weather on Sunday afternoon which will make it tough to throw the ball with consistency and that means Dallas will use DeMarco Murray to the extent he deserves. While there have been some concerns about how much of a workload he can carry, Murray has been battering Defenses and should be able to keep the Cowboys moving the ball in this one.
It will also ease the pressure on Tony Romo who can sometimes push too hard, which causes mistakes, although the Quarter Back will also feel he can have a big game against this Secondary.
Kirk Cousins will have success too, but can he avoid the mistakes behind this Offensive Line to keep Washington in front in this game. Personally I think this is going to be a close game, but I just like the Dallas team enough to win this game and cover, although I am disappointed that the spread has hit the key number of 3 after being at 2.5 for much of the week.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Going against the Seattle Seahawks in their home stadium is a quick path to the poor house, but I can't help think that Arizona have been given too many points in this one.
As well as Seattle have played all season, the Cardinals have been in tremendous form themselves in recent weeks and are a desperate team trying to rally for a place in the Play Offs. There is every chance they can still make the post-season, but will likely need to win out and get some help from elsewhere, but they should remain focused here and also will want to erase the memories of their 58-0 beating here last season.
Carson Palmer will be under some pressure, and he will certainly be hoping that Larry Fitzgerald is cleared in time to play, but he could have some success passing the ball if he plays as well as he has in recent weeks.
More importantly, I think the Arizona Defense is playing at a very high level and could do enough to at least limit the Seattle Offense, as long as Palmer and the Offense don't turn the ball over in bad areas. Marshawn Lynch's impact may not be as great with the way Arizona have played the run, and Russell Wilson may be under pressure and forced to throw into a Secondary that is much improved.
I do think Seattle will have too much in their locker and will come through, but they may be given a scare first. I will look for Palmer and the Arizona Offense to at least reach 17 points in this one and that may be too big a number for Seattle to cover.
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions Pick: This game is clearly one that could very much be decided on which of the two teams looks after the ball the most effectively. Eli Manning leads the NFL with the number of Interceptions thrown, but Matthew Stafford has been guilty of seeing some of his passes ending up in the wrong hands and that effectively has cost Detroit the chance to control their own destiny in the NFL.
Detroit have the Offense to put up plenty of points if they can avoid the mistakes that cost them the game against Baltimore, although Stafford could do with some help from Receivers not called Calvin Johnson. It has become clear that Stafford will force the ball in Megatron's direction in pressure situations and that has seen teams jump routes which could potentially be a problem against a Giants Defense that hasn't given up despite the 5-9 record.
However, Manning has been guilty of making a lot of obvious mistakes and I do think he will struggle to sustain drives and is likely to turn the ball over in this one. Victor Cruz is out to make life easier for the Detroit Secondary, especially as Eli Manning hasn't had the same connection with Hakeem Nicks and Rueben Randle is still developing.
Andre Brown could have a big game, but it becomes a vicious circle for the Giants when they are behind and need to throw to get back into the game. Eli Manning will also be pressured all day by the Defensive Line of the Lions and I think Detroit will also play a cleaner game with the pressure effectively off their shoulders after back to back losses.
If Manning does throw Interceptions in bad areas, Detroit should take advantage of short fields and I think the Lions win this one big with Matt Stafford avoiding the turnovers that blighted his game on Monday Night Football.
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: It is not often that the New England Patriots will lose back to back games with Tom Brady under Center and they certainly can't afford to slip up again if they want to secure a bye in the first round of the Play Offs.
Facing the Baltimore Ravens is perhaps not what they needed right now as the Ravens have played them tough each time they have met the last few years including a win in the Play Off last season and a home win against New England last year.
However, Baltimore's Offense has continued to struggle to put up Touchdowns and that will give Brady and co a real chance of springing what would be considered a surprise. Brady should have a more effective running game on his side which will at least keep the yards being churned out, although the Ravens pressure up front and the Secondary could disrupt the passing game.
As I said though, Baltimore's Offense settles for Field Goals so often and I think Joe Flacco will find it tough to find his Receivers. The long pass has struggled to show up, while Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce haven't helped out by struggling to get the rushing game established to the extent that Defenses have to respect it.
This has all the makings of another close game and I do think it is worth having the points onside, although only for a small interest under the key number of 3.
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: This is the final game at Candlestick Park, barring a Week 17 which sees the 49ers overtake the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West, and I expect San Francisco to put on a performance for their fans.
They should be far too good for the Atlanta Falcons who may potentially be looking ahead to playing spoiler for the Carolina Panthers next week, while the talent levels are far apart for each team going into this game.
Colin Kaepernick should have a big game with Michael Crabtree back to join Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin in the passing game that should be able to dissect a Atlanta Secondary that has struggled all season. With the power running game expected to get established, I like Kaepernick's chances to hit passes downfield and have a big game at Quarter Back with the 49ers building a lot of momentum going into the Play Offs.
The 49ers have the motivation of clinching a Play Off place without the headache of having to win in Arizona for that place and I expect a much better performance than the Chicago Bears put in against Philadelphia on Sunday night.
I also think the injuries in the Atlanta roster won't help the Falcons and I think Matt Ryan will be under pressure throughout the game and may struggle to move the chains with consistency. Steven Jackson won't be as big a factor as he has been in recent games. I don't think the Falcons can keep up as San Francisco look to say goodbye to their home for what could be the last time and I like the 49ers to win big.
MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 9 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 10 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints + 3 Points @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 3 Points @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 10 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 10 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New England Patriots + 2 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 14 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Week 15: 2-6, - 5.32 Units
Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units
Season 2013: 70-57-2, + 18.18 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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