There are still a lot of Play Off implications to be resolved in the coming weeks, but things may become a little clearer all around after Week 14 is completed. This is also the final week of the regular season for most Fantasy Football players and I have been fortunate enough to make the Play Offs in two of my three pools, while I can make the final pool as long as I win this week, although a loss would see my opponent take my spot in the final four.
Week 13 Thoughts
Mike Tomlin's sideline mistake: I am a big fan of Mike Tomlin, but there is no way that he didn't know exactly what he was doing in the final Thanksgiving Day game against the Baltimore Ravens.
Jacoby Jones was returning a kick back for what looked like a Touchdown and Tomlin was standing at the edge of the field, only to move at the last second while viewing the play going down on the jumbotron. The move at the last second also meant Jones broke his stride just a touch and also moved towards the middle of the field, a move that allowed him to be tackled around 30 yards short of the end zone.
It proved to be a big tackle when it came down to the spread for the game as Baltimore essentially left four points on the field and the Steelers secured a back door cover despite losing the game. The NFL isn't foolish enough to think that no one is gambling on their games and they had to do something to show that they won't tolerate this, while Tomlin admitted that he had to accept the fine to ensure the 'integrity' of the NFL is kept intact.
A $100,000 fine for the Head Coach won't keep the guys in the Sportsbook happy, but the NFL had to show they can't accept these things to happen on the field and at least will keep people coming back to the counters in the coming weeks.
AFC Wild Card Race going to the wire: I read in a few places this week that the New York Jets and the Pittsburgh Steelers are in desperation mode after losing last week, but the final AFC Wild Card spot is still very open and I don't think either team is dead in the water just yet.
OK, I take that back- the New York Jets are not going anywhere with that atrocious Offense, but the Steelers have every chance to get back in contention by beating the Miami Dolphins this week.
Out of the teams chasing the Play Offs, I still think the Steelers have the best schedule to steal (pardon the pun) the final Wild Card spot ahead of the Ravens and the Dolphins, so I really believe their demise has been overstated by the media.
As I said at the beginning of the post, a lot of the Play Off implications could become clearer this week and a Miami win would put the Steelers away in my opinion... But if Pittsburgh win, the race for the Number 6 seed is still very much alive between a number of teams.
All NFC roads to the Super Bowl will go through Seattle: A couple of weeks ago, I made my opinion clear that the New Orleans Saints won't have enough to go into Seattle and beat the Seahawks in the Play Offs.
I was then unsurprised to see Seattle knock off New Orleans on Monday Night Football and effectively wrap up the Number 1 seed in the NFC as they have the tie-breaker over both New Orleans and Carolina and are also far too ahead of the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West.
Any team going into Seattle are going to find it very difficult to beat this Seahawks team, although I have called the two potential Wild Card teams (Carolina and San Francisco) as the two teams that have the best shot to do that.
I would expect both to wrap up Number 5 and Number 6 in the NFC, although Seattle are probably hoping Carolina can surpass New Orleans in the NFC South to hold off that potential game.
San Francisco have the Defense and an Offense that is getting healthier to cause problems for Seattle, although they have lost on their last 2 visits to that Stadium, while Carolina's Defense is another that could cause problems.
However, Seattle are hard to back against now to reach the big game in New York in February with home field advantage almost secured and I think Seahawks fans will be quietly confident of their chances as long as no major injuries affect them down the stretch.
My Play Off teams: These are only my predictions and there weren't too many results in Week 13 that actually changed my opinion from last week.
AFC: 1) Denver, 2) New England, 3) Cincinnati, 4) Indianapolis, 5) Kansas City, 6) Pittsburgh
NFC: 1) Seattle, 2) New Orleans, 3) Philadelphia, 4) Detroit, 5) Carolina, 6) San Francisco
Top Ten
1) Seattle Seahawks (11-1): Beat down of New Orleans and sowing up home field pretty much makes Seattle number 1.
2) Denver Broncos (10-2): Still in control of finishing with the Number 1 seed in the AFC after wrapping up AFC West.
3) New England Patriots (9-3): Escaped with the win in Houston, but Patriots are looking stronger in each passing week, although Defense is a concern.
4) New Orleans Saints (9-3): Dropped three positions from last week, but I still think they finish with Number 2 seed in NFC.
5) Carolina Panthers (9-3): Big game in the Superdome this week and a chance to move to the top of the NFC South and the Number 2 seed.
6) San Francisco 49ers (8-4): Offense getting healthier and Defense improved with Aldon Smith getting back to his best- big game against Seattle this week though.
7) Cincinnati Bengals (8-4): Likely going to win the AFC North, but a game to decide seeding place this week against the Colts.
8) Kansas City Chiefs (9-3): Dropped three straight and Defense banged up- Kansas City are fortunate to have the 9 wins in their bank.
9) Philadelphia Eagles (7-5): Important win over Arizona last week to prove they are for real, but another big test against the Lions this week.
10) Detroit Lions (7-5): Detroit's win over Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving Day may prove too much for the Packers and Chicago Bears to overcome.
Bottom Five
32) Houston Texans (2-10): Showed life in their loss to New England, but still came up short and have lost 10 straight games.
31) Washington Redskins (3-9): I thought Washington were going to beat the Giants last week with the way they played in the first half, but they couldn't put them away and have lost another game.
30) Atlanta Falcons (3-9): A win for Atlanta last week, but fortune smiled on them with Buffalo fumbling the games away.
29) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9): I didn't think Jacksonville would win one game, let alone three, and they deserve to move up the Rankings if not quite out of the bottom five.
28) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9): Tampa Bay played badly last week, but I was torn between them and Minnesota for this final place and I wouldn't be surprised if they are out of this section again next week.
Week 14 Picks
Thanksgiving Day was tough with Oakland kicking a field goal to cover in a game they were trailing by 10 points with 35 seconds left- it was the right decision, but I've seen too many Head Coaches screw that moment up to be happy. It only was compounded later by the Mike Tomlin incident and the back door cover from Pittsburgh.
However, Sunday was a much better day for the picks and that has kept the season totals moving in the right direction. Last season, it was between Week 12 and Week 16 that things got a little out of sync for me, so I have been glad to come through the first two of those weeks in a decent position for the season, With a little care and attention, hopefully the last four weeks of the season will go the same way.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: This could be a game that ends up deciding which of these teams picks up the Number 1 pick in the NFL Draft next year, but that doesn't mean it is one that will appeal to those tuning in for Thursday Night Football this week.
These two only met a couple of weeks ago at Reliant Stadium in a game that ended with a Jaguars win by a Touchdown and I am surprised by the fact that the Texans are now favoured by more than a field goal in this game.
We have seen Maurice Jones-Drew pick up his game in the last three weeks and he is giving the Jaguars a semblance of a running game and I expect him to find running room in this one. That will keep the Offense in third and manageable situations and I think Chad Henne will be able to move the chains in that position.
The Houston Defense has played the pass pretty well this season, but there have been signs that they are beginning to struggle in that area too over the last three games.
On the other side of the ball, I am not expecting Ben Tate to have the same big performance that he did against New England as Jacksonville have played the run strongly. Over the course of the season, they have struggled, but they have held their last three opponents to just 2.5 yards per carry and that will keep Case Keenum in a tough position to make his plays.
Keenum will have some success against this Secondary when he looks to pass deep to Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, but it is a big ask of the rookie to keep making those plays from third and long situations if the running game struggles.
I also am surprised by how much weight so many are putting into the Houston game against New England- that was their 'Super Bowl' and they could have a let down in this one coming off a short week against a 'terrible' team like the Jags. Even if Houston win, I won't be ashamed of making this pick as a team losing 10 straight should not be favoured by more than a field goal on the road against anyone.
Jacksonville can't be trusted completely, so this will only be a one unit pick in a game the Jaguars have a real chance of winning outright.
Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Joe Flacco will be over the moon to see Dennis Pitta back as another receiving threat, just in time for the 6-6 Ravens to try and make a move that will see them return to the Play Offs to defend their Super Bowl title. That could be the all-important against the Minnesota Secondary that has continued to struggle and I expect Baltimore to make hay through the air.
The Vikings won't be able to contain the Offense by focusing on Torrey Smith and I expect Joe Flacco to be able to have his biggest game of the season. The Offensive Line has to protect Flacco more consistently, while rain is a concern, but Baltimore should get things going through the air in this one.
Ray Rice has also shown some signs of life in recent games, while the Vikings run Defense has begun to wear down as the season has progressed and they have allowed the last three teams they have faced to rush for almost 5 yards per carry.
I think the running game will be important with the weather conditions as they are, and Adrian Peterson has also found his game back on track in recent games. He is facing a Baltimore Defense that keys in on the run and will force Matt Cassel to make the plays with his arm, but I still expect Peterson to grab his yards in this one.
If Baltimore can keep Peterson in check, they will force Matt Cassel in third and long situations and I would back the Baltimore Defense to win that battle more often. With Minnesota coming off back to back overtime games against Divisional rivals, this doesn't look a great spot for them and I like the Ravens to cover with Joe Flacco making a few plays with his arm to see them cover.
Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Neither team has much left to play for this season, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have shown enough life in recent games to think they can win this game, especially against a Buffalo Bills team that lost their last game in heartbreaking fashion.
EJ Manuel hasn't played as well on the road this season either, although he will be able to hand the ball off to either CJ Spiller or Fred Jackson to keep the chains moving. Tampa Bay have struggled against the run in the last three games, so the Bills should be able to keep the team in third and manageable situations if they are not grabbing first downs with their running game.
I also think the Buccaneers can give the ball to Bobby Rainey to keep their Offense moving forward themselves, and that will give Mike Glennon the chance to hit the deep ball too. The run game may help slow down the pass rush the Bills will throw towards them and also give Glennon enough time to try and find his receiving threats.
Buffalo have been strong against the pass in their recent games, so it won't be easy for Glennon, but getting a running game will be critical for him and that may be enough to make the plays from third and short situations, while play-action will also be key.
Home-field and Buffalo coming off a loss in terrible fashion is enough for me to have a small interest in the Buccaneers.
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots Pick: The New England Patriots might still be winning games, but they have not been impressed with the way the Defense has been playing the last couple of games and will be looking for an improvement in this one.
It is going to be cold in Massachusetts on Sunday afternoon, but I don't think that will slow down what New England should be able to do with the ball in their hands. You have to credit the Cleveland Defense which has played well all season, but New England could match up with them very well when Tom Brady is throwing because I don't think Joe Haden will be as much of a factor as he has been this year.
Haden will cover one of the wideouts, but Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are unlikely to be in that position, while Shane Vereen is another threat coming out of the backfield. The Patriots will use the ground game to keep the Browns honest, but it will be down to Brady to move the chains through the air and I believe he is able to do that.
That means Jason Campbell, who looks one hit from being knocked out of the game, will have to try and keep up. He will look to Josh Gordon, but will find his best Receiver covered by Aqib Talib, even in his limited capacity. That means Campbell has to look elsewhere, and he will have to be careful of the pocket collapsing in on him with the injuries he has taken in recent weeks.
The Patriots have struggled to contain the run, but Cleveland have also struggled to open running lanes so New England should be able to force Campbell to make the plays with his arm. The last couple of weeks have seen the Patriots win games from behind, but I believe they have more control in this one and are able to get away from Cleveland and cover the spread.
Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets Pick: I am struggling to think of what the New York Jets have done in recent games to have them as a field goal favourite against any team and that includes the Oakland Raiders.
The Raiders have had a few extra days to get ready for this game with a Thanksgiving Day appearance behind them and they have a Quarter Back in Matt McGloin who seems happy to throw the ball out of the pocket. They will need him at his best as the Jets are one of the toughest Defenses in football to run against and I don't think an Oakland team missing their top two Running Backs is going to gain a lot of yards on the ground in this one.
The pressure up front will be another concern for the Raiders whose own Offensive Line has struggled, but the Jets Secondary has struggled and McGloin could make some big plays in this one.
That doesn't account for how bad Geno Smith has looked in the last three games since coming back off a bye and the Offense is accounting for less than 7 points per game in those three losses. I expect the Jets will be able to use Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell to at least run the ball effectively, but the Raiders will look to force Smith to make the plays with his arm.
I am expecting the Jets to at least keep Smith in third and manageable, but can Smith make the plays? Oakland are actually surprisingly effective at preventing the pass, while they should get pressure up front against this Offensive Line. That could prevent the Jets sustaining drives and I think the 3 point head start for the road team is a touch on the high side.
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers Pick: This is another game where I don't understand why the home team are getting as many points to cover as they are.
The Green Bay Packers are missing Aaron Rodgers for another week and while they are in a desperate position to win, I don't think Matt Flynn is someone that I would want to lay 3.5 points on him doing so against a team like Atlanta that have picked up form and can score points.
Both teams should have success through the air, and both are capable of running the ball against the Defense they will face- Steven Jackson has shown signs of life in the last couple of weeks, but the Falcons may look to load the box and force the Packers away from Eddie Lacy in this one.
I think both will struggle to contain the aerial threat, but I would trust Matt Ryan more than I would Flynn and I can see the Falcons, who have lost Play Off home games to the Packers in the recent past, look to put another nail in the Green Bay post-season hopes in this one.
This looks like a game that may be decided by a field goal either way, so the 3.5 head start is hard to ignore.
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos Pick: The Denver Broncos can't afford to drop a game in their bid to finish as the Number 1 seed in the AFC for a second year in succession and I think they will be able to see off Tennessee in this game.
The weather may be the only factor for the Denver Offense to worry about, while Tennessee can get a decent pass rush together, but it would still be a surprise if the Broncos didn't score at least 30 points in this one.
Tennessee's biggest hope is to establish Chris Johnson and try and sustain long drives which will keep Peyton Manning and the Denver Offense on the sidelines, but that will also mean Ryan Fitzpatrick making plays with his arm. He is an erratic Quarter Back that is capable of putting together a mistake-free game, but can end up in a vicious circle if he is forced to throw to keep the Titans competitive in this one.
The Titans are just not built to come back from large deficits and that is a real possibility against Denver- I just feel if the Broncos get a two score lead by half time, the Titans could unravel in this one and Denver pull away for a comfortable win.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: This is a big rivalry game so I don't expect a let up from the Seattle Seahawks despite having a big lead when it comes to wrapping up the Number 1 seed in the NFC.
They would love to wrap up their Play Off berth with a win over the San Francisco 49ers, a win that would once again put their rivals Play Off hopes in a precarious position. However, the Secondary is a little banged up and the 49ers now have their full complement of weapons back this week so I think we may see a reverse from their game earlier this season.
I don't believe anyone would blow out the Seahawks, but the 49ers may hold the edge in a game that is far more important for their long-term hopes than it is for Seattle. Michael Crabtree's return to the line up means teams have to focus on more than Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin, although there is a concern on a couple of starters on the Offensive Line which would cause big problems for the 49ers.
Both teams are likely going to have more running lanes than would perhaps be expected when these Defenses are in town and Russell Wilson is a Quarter Back I wouldn't feel comfortable opposing too many times. I just feel the Seahawks put in a lot in their Monday Night Football win over New Orleans and may come up short in this one.
I believe Colin Kaepernick is ready to turn a corner for the season and has been improving the last three weeks- with his additional weapons, I like the 49ers in this one.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The New Orleans Saints Offense looked devoid of ideas in their loss on Monday Night Football, but they are back in their 'happy place' and I am expecting a big bounce back from them.
New Orleans are a completely different proposition when they play in front of their rabid fan base and while the Panthers Defense is legit, I do think the home field and match up problems will favour the Saints in this one.
The Saints Defense is also playing better against the run in recent games and I am not of the believe that Cam Newton can beat them solely through the pass, because he doesn't have the same weapons that Drew Brees can rely upon. Newton will be scramble around, but the Saints pass rush is pretty good and I can see Rob Ryan firing up the Defense to prove they are better than they showed last week.
There are not too many times that the Saints don't perform in front of their own fans and I like them to recover and take control of the NFC South in this Sunday Night Football affair.
These two only met a couple of weeks ago at Reliant Stadium in a game that ended with a Jaguars win by a Touchdown and I am surprised by the fact that the Texans are now favoured by more than a field goal in this game.
We have seen Maurice Jones-Drew pick up his game in the last three weeks and he is giving the Jaguars a semblance of a running game and I expect him to find running room in this one. That will keep the Offense in third and manageable situations and I think Chad Henne will be able to move the chains in that position.
The Houston Defense has played the pass pretty well this season, but there have been signs that they are beginning to struggle in that area too over the last three games.
On the other side of the ball, I am not expecting Ben Tate to have the same big performance that he did against New England as Jacksonville have played the run strongly. Over the course of the season, they have struggled, but they have held their last three opponents to just 2.5 yards per carry and that will keep Case Keenum in a tough position to make his plays.
Keenum will have some success against this Secondary when he looks to pass deep to Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, but it is a big ask of the rookie to keep making those plays from third and long situations if the running game struggles.
I also am surprised by how much weight so many are putting into the Houston game against New England- that was their 'Super Bowl' and they could have a let down in this one coming off a short week against a 'terrible' team like the Jags. Even if Houston win, I won't be ashamed of making this pick as a team losing 10 straight should not be favoured by more than a field goal on the road against anyone.
Jacksonville can't be trusted completely, so this will only be a one unit pick in a game the Jaguars have a real chance of winning outright.
Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Joe Flacco will be over the moon to see Dennis Pitta back as another receiving threat, just in time for the 6-6 Ravens to try and make a move that will see them return to the Play Offs to defend their Super Bowl title. That could be the all-important against the Minnesota Secondary that has continued to struggle and I expect Baltimore to make hay through the air.
The Vikings won't be able to contain the Offense by focusing on Torrey Smith and I expect Joe Flacco to be able to have his biggest game of the season. The Offensive Line has to protect Flacco more consistently, while rain is a concern, but Baltimore should get things going through the air in this one.
Ray Rice has also shown some signs of life in recent games, while the Vikings run Defense has begun to wear down as the season has progressed and they have allowed the last three teams they have faced to rush for almost 5 yards per carry.
I think the running game will be important with the weather conditions as they are, and Adrian Peterson has also found his game back on track in recent games. He is facing a Baltimore Defense that keys in on the run and will force Matt Cassel to make the plays with his arm, but I still expect Peterson to grab his yards in this one.
If Baltimore can keep Peterson in check, they will force Matt Cassel in third and long situations and I would back the Baltimore Defense to win that battle more often. With Minnesota coming off back to back overtime games against Divisional rivals, this doesn't look a great spot for them and I like the Ravens to cover with Joe Flacco making a few plays with his arm to see them cover.
Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Neither team has much left to play for this season, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have shown enough life in recent games to think they can win this game, especially against a Buffalo Bills team that lost their last game in heartbreaking fashion.
EJ Manuel hasn't played as well on the road this season either, although he will be able to hand the ball off to either CJ Spiller or Fred Jackson to keep the chains moving. Tampa Bay have struggled against the run in the last three games, so the Bills should be able to keep the team in third and manageable situations if they are not grabbing first downs with their running game.
I also think the Buccaneers can give the ball to Bobby Rainey to keep their Offense moving forward themselves, and that will give Mike Glennon the chance to hit the deep ball too. The run game may help slow down the pass rush the Bills will throw towards them and also give Glennon enough time to try and find his receiving threats.
Buffalo have been strong against the pass in their recent games, so it won't be easy for Glennon, but getting a running game will be critical for him and that may be enough to make the plays from third and short situations, while play-action will also be key.
Home-field and Buffalo coming off a loss in terrible fashion is enough for me to have a small interest in the Buccaneers.
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots Pick: The New England Patriots might still be winning games, but they have not been impressed with the way the Defense has been playing the last couple of games and will be looking for an improvement in this one.
It is going to be cold in Massachusetts on Sunday afternoon, but I don't think that will slow down what New England should be able to do with the ball in their hands. You have to credit the Cleveland Defense which has played well all season, but New England could match up with them very well when Tom Brady is throwing because I don't think Joe Haden will be as much of a factor as he has been this year.
Haden will cover one of the wideouts, but Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are unlikely to be in that position, while Shane Vereen is another threat coming out of the backfield. The Patriots will use the ground game to keep the Browns honest, but it will be down to Brady to move the chains through the air and I believe he is able to do that.
That means Jason Campbell, who looks one hit from being knocked out of the game, will have to try and keep up. He will look to Josh Gordon, but will find his best Receiver covered by Aqib Talib, even in his limited capacity. That means Campbell has to look elsewhere, and he will have to be careful of the pocket collapsing in on him with the injuries he has taken in recent weeks.
The Patriots have struggled to contain the run, but Cleveland have also struggled to open running lanes so New England should be able to force Campbell to make the plays with his arm. The last couple of weeks have seen the Patriots win games from behind, but I believe they have more control in this one and are able to get away from Cleveland and cover the spread.
Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets Pick: I am struggling to think of what the New York Jets have done in recent games to have them as a field goal favourite against any team and that includes the Oakland Raiders.
The Raiders have had a few extra days to get ready for this game with a Thanksgiving Day appearance behind them and they have a Quarter Back in Matt McGloin who seems happy to throw the ball out of the pocket. They will need him at his best as the Jets are one of the toughest Defenses in football to run against and I don't think an Oakland team missing their top two Running Backs is going to gain a lot of yards on the ground in this one.
The pressure up front will be another concern for the Raiders whose own Offensive Line has struggled, but the Jets Secondary has struggled and McGloin could make some big plays in this one.
That doesn't account for how bad Geno Smith has looked in the last three games since coming back off a bye and the Offense is accounting for less than 7 points per game in those three losses. I expect the Jets will be able to use Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell to at least run the ball effectively, but the Raiders will look to force Smith to make the plays with his arm.
I am expecting the Jets to at least keep Smith in third and manageable, but can Smith make the plays? Oakland are actually surprisingly effective at preventing the pass, while they should get pressure up front against this Offensive Line. That could prevent the Jets sustaining drives and I think the 3 point head start for the road team is a touch on the high side.
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers Pick: This is another game where I don't understand why the home team are getting as many points to cover as they are.
The Green Bay Packers are missing Aaron Rodgers for another week and while they are in a desperate position to win, I don't think Matt Flynn is someone that I would want to lay 3.5 points on him doing so against a team like Atlanta that have picked up form and can score points.
Both teams should have success through the air, and both are capable of running the ball against the Defense they will face- Steven Jackson has shown signs of life in the last couple of weeks, but the Falcons may look to load the box and force the Packers away from Eddie Lacy in this one.
I think both will struggle to contain the aerial threat, but I would trust Matt Ryan more than I would Flynn and I can see the Falcons, who have lost Play Off home games to the Packers in the recent past, look to put another nail in the Green Bay post-season hopes in this one.
This looks like a game that may be decided by a field goal either way, so the 3.5 head start is hard to ignore.
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos Pick: The Denver Broncos can't afford to drop a game in their bid to finish as the Number 1 seed in the AFC for a second year in succession and I think they will be able to see off Tennessee in this game.
The weather may be the only factor for the Denver Offense to worry about, while Tennessee can get a decent pass rush together, but it would still be a surprise if the Broncos didn't score at least 30 points in this one.
Tennessee's biggest hope is to establish Chris Johnson and try and sustain long drives which will keep Peyton Manning and the Denver Offense on the sidelines, but that will also mean Ryan Fitzpatrick making plays with his arm. He is an erratic Quarter Back that is capable of putting together a mistake-free game, but can end up in a vicious circle if he is forced to throw to keep the Titans competitive in this one.
The Titans are just not built to come back from large deficits and that is a real possibility against Denver- I just feel if the Broncos get a two score lead by half time, the Titans could unravel in this one and Denver pull away for a comfortable win.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: This is a big rivalry game so I don't expect a let up from the Seattle Seahawks despite having a big lead when it comes to wrapping up the Number 1 seed in the NFC.
They would love to wrap up their Play Off berth with a win over the San Francisco 49ers, a win that would once again put their rivals Play Off hopes in a precarious position. However, the Secondary is a little banged up and the 49ers now have their full complement of weapons back this week so I think we may see a reverse from their game earlier this season.
I don't believe anyone would blow out the Seahawks, but the 49ers may hold the edge in a game that is far more important for their long-term hopes than it is for Seattle. Michael Crabtree's return to the line up means teams have to focus on more than Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin, although there is a concern on a couple of starters on the Offensive Line which would cause big problems for the 49ers.
Both teams are likely going to have more running lanes than would perhaps be expected when these Defenses are in town and Russell Wilson is a Quarter Back I wouldn't feel comfortable opposing too many times. I just feel the Seahawks put in a lot in their Monday Night Football win over New Orleans and may come up short in this one.
I believe Colin Kaepernick is ready to turn a corner for the season and has been improving the last three weeks- with his additional weapons, I like the 49ers in this one.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The New Orleans Saints Offense looked devoid of ideas in their loss on Monday Night Football, but they are back in their 'happy place' and I am expecting a big bounce back from them.
New Orleans are a completely different proposition when they play in front of their rabid fan base and while the Panthers Defense is legit, I do think the home field and match up problems will favour the Saints in this one.
The Saints Defense is also playing better against the run in recent games and I am not of the believe that Cam Newton can beat them solely through the pass, because he doesn't have the same weapons that Drew Brees can rely upon. Newton will be scramble around, but the Saints pass rush is pretty good and I can see Rob Ryan firing up the Defense to prove they are better than they showed last week.
There are not too many times that the Saints don't perform in front of their own fans and I like them to recover and take control of the NFC South in this Sunday Night Football affair.
MY PICKS: Jacksonville Jaguars + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 10 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 3 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 10 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 3 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units
Season 2013: 63-47-2, + 22.96 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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