Tennis Picks 2013 (July 26th)

A couple of players exited the same tournament in Gstaad on Thursday and both of those have got a lot of questions as to where their career is going.

The first 'big name' to be beaten in Gstaad was Janko Tipsarevic who is having a terrible season on the Tour. He is likely to fall out of the top 20 at some point in the next month and he is far removed from the player that made to the ATP End of Year Championships in London last season and one who has 106 wins on the Tour in 2011 and 2012 combined.

This year he has 14 wins and I would question who helps him compile his schedule- for an out of form player, getting on to the clay could be a godsend as that is the best surface to build rhythm and confidence and this time last year, Tipsarevic reached back to back Finals in Stuttgart and here in Switzerland.

However, some 'smart' advisor suggested taking the appearance fee from the tournament being held in Bogota on the hard courts was the smart option to take before flying back to Europe for the tournament here. This is all before the Masters tournaments to be held in North America and the last thing an out of form player needs is to put in a lot of travelling and trying to accustom themselves to new time zones.

I am a big fan of Tipsarevic and what he has brought to the table in the last couple of seasons, but he has to find out whether he wants to put in the effort to get back up the Rankings by winning matches, or whether he is comfortable falling into the abyss outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings.


Another player that needs to find a better rhythm is Roger Federer who fell to another disappointing defeat on Thursday- I was worried that he is a little too erratic these days to beat the best players, but losing three matches to players that are 55 or worse in the World Rankings is beginning to get more and more people questioning whether the 17 time Grand Slam winner has much left in the tank.

There is an old saying that is used in boxing a lot of time and that is that no man can beat Father Time, the one fight that will always be a step too far.

It feels like Federer is playing Father Time these days and it looks like he is losing that battle on court. His serve lacks the bite that helped him to 17 Grand Slams and he is really erratic on his groundstrokes, while his loss to Daniel Brands was not the first time he has lost the key points in matches over the last five weeks.

The talk about reaching the Olympics in Rio in three years time looks like it won't actually become a reality and I don't know how much longer we are going to see Federer on the Tour- you have to remember that he is turning 32 next month and winning all those titles in his career means he has a LOT of tennis in his legs.

With a fair few points to defend over the next three months, there is every chance that Federer will finish this season perhaps as low as Number 7 in the World Rankings, especially if he can't find the form that we know he is capable of. It might not be like watching your favourite boxer suddenly get old in the ring, but there is something a little sad to see this once great player struggling to match players he would have dismissed without a second thought in his prime.

I really believe the next six weeks will give us a strong indication of how long we will see Federer on the Tour- he has always spoken about playing as long as he enjoys the game, but early defeats in Montreal, Cincinnati and Flushing Meadows would surely get him thinking about calling it a day. He has a young family and has nothing left to prove in the game while I can't imagine him enjoying playing on the circuit if he Ranking drops to a position where he could be facing the best players on the ATP at the Quarter Final stage of Grand Slams rather than the Semi and Finals he has in the past.

Too many times we have already seen premature obituaries written about Roger Federer's career, but the last month, and most of 2013, suggests a permanent decline and one that could see the former World Number 1 call it a day on the Tour.


I don't really know what to say about the news that Victor Troicki is going to be banned until January 2015 after he failed to provide a blood sample at the Monte Carlo Masters back in April. He was unwell and thought he would be excused after providing a urine sample, but it has proven not to be the case.

I have no doubt he will appeal the decision to ban him for eighteen months, but it is a sad state of affairs. There has not been a sudden upturn in form to suggest anything was being hidden by Troicki and I think tennis loses a character in an era when there aren't too many of those around. This will be an interesting story to follow in the coming weeks.


The picks had their ups and downs on Thursday, although I am a touch disappointed considering Dominika Cibulkova was broken when serving for the match before wrapping it up in a tie-break, but missing the cover. Alexandr Dolgopolov was clearly not quite right but finished his defeat, while Victor Hanescu was two games from winning the match when his opponent retired. The Hanescu pick was returned as a void, but a later retirement from Michael Russell in his match against Santiago Giraldo was settled as a winner as at least one set was completed, which is the rule with that layer.

It is still a positive week, but it could have been a little better with a little more luck landing on the side of the picks. Now we reach the Quarter Finals at the five tournaments being played and hopefully Friday will produce another positive day.


Victor Hanescu v Daniel Brands: It was a case of big serving at just the right time and taking his opportunities to break serve when they came up that helped Daniel Brands produce a surprise win over Roger Federer in the Second Round on Thursday.

It was another impressive performance from Brands who has now won 4 and lost 5 sets competed against Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal on the clay courts this season, but I have a feeling he is in a perfect letdown spot here.

That doesn't even take into account that Victor Hanescu is a pretty solid clay court player himself- both Hanescu and Brands will be aided by the conditions in Gstaad and it won't be a surprise if we see at least one, possibly two, tie-breakers in this one. The Romanian served very well in his win over Roberto Bautista-Agut and I believe that Hanescu is going to be a little more solid at the key times in this one.


Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: This might not have been a tournament where Stanislas Wawrinka has excelled in the past, but he is the favourite to win it now that Roger Federer has been beaten.

It won't be an easy match for him against Feliciano Lopez who has shown a lot of decent form in the last couple of months. Lopez has a serve that can get him out of trouble, while the court has played pretty quickly this week to aid the Spaniard. However, he will be put under pressure by an aggressive Wawrinka serve and the left hander may not get a lot of change out of the Wawrinka backhand when they get into cross court rallies.

The Swiss player will need to serve effectively and can't lose concentration as he did in the second set against Daniel Gimeno-Traver in the last Round. There is a chance that we could see a tie-break which will make it tougher for Wawrinka to cover this spread, but I have a feeling that the Number 2 seed is going to find a way to win each set with a break of serve more than Lopez.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Martin Klizan: While I have always respected the Fabio Fognini talent, I had a feeling he was going to be someone that was happy coasting on the Tour and enjoying life as a tennis player. Over the last month he has really highlighted how good his 2013 season has been and the performance against Thiemo De Bakker showed a new mental strength.

In the match with De Bakker, Fognini was down 1-5 in the first set after being broken in all three opening service games, but he fought back to win 9 games in a row and go on for a comfortable win.

It was impressive watching Fognini getting back into that match and I expect he is going to be able to give Martin Klizan similar problems by nullifying the serve to an extent. The left handed Klizan poses a different problem, but he has struggled against some of the hard-working movers on the Tour over the last month and we could see the same here.

Klizan can be inconsistent with his groundstrokes and Fognini will force him to earn a lot of the points and that could prove to be the difference in this one. There is the concern that Fognini will run out of steam at some point after winning back to back tournaments, but he looks like he is going out on to the court with the full confidence of expecting to win the match and I like him to come through 75, 64.


Albert Montanes v Gael Monfils: It is weird to see that Albert Montanes has a 4-1 head to head lead over Gael Monfils, winning all 4 matches played on the clay courts including twice earlier this season.

You would expect Monfils to be able to come through this type of match as they are similar players- both will use their ability to outlast opponents and will look to force their opponent to play one more ball and grind them down.

Then you would say Monfils has the better serve and is heavier of the ground, while also being the better athlete, but that hasn't panned out. The match in Monte Carlo was incredibly close with just one point separating the players in a three set match, while Montanes got off to a quick start when they met in the Final at Nice just before the French Open.

I don't know whether it is down to Monfils not really being as comfortable on the clay courts as Montanes, or whether he just feels the additional pressure of having to make one more ball himself rather than forcing his opponent to. Whatever it is, I think a small interest in Montanes as the outsider is warranted with the way the match ups have gone between them.


James Blake + 2.5 games v John Isner: This doesn't look a lot of games on the spread, but I believe it is better to have them in the bank during a match that could be a lot closer than the layers believe.

James Blake has played pretty well to come through a couple of matches here in Atlanta already, while John Isner is certainly having a down season. The hard courts will suit both of these players games, particularly the big serve that Isner possesses, but that can sometimes blind people to the match up on the court.

One thing you will have to remember about James Blake is that he can be very aggressive on his return of serve and that can cause Isner some problems as the ball comes back to him almost before he has finished his serving action. With that in mind, I think Blake has a great chance to win at least a set in this match and that will make it difficult for Isner to get over the spread.

Blake has also been serving pretty well, for the most part, this week and this has the making of a tight three setter. Both of their previous meetings have needed three sets to separate these players and Blake has been playing well enough this week to give Isner all he can handle.


Santiago Giraldo v Ryan Harrison: I am going to have a small interest on Santiago Giraldo in this match simply because I don't believe Ryan Harrison should be an odds on favourite to beat anyone in any kind of form after a poor 2013.

Harrison has dropped out of the top 100 in the World Rankings and he had won just 6 matches on the main Tour before this week. While the hard courts are his favoured surface and he has a couple of wins this week, Harrison's confidence can't be in a great place and someone who can play solid tennis may just give him a few problems.

That is where Santiago Giraldo can take advantage as he can play at a decent level- he has a good serve and can definitely string together winners to earn breaks of serve. He remained solid in his win over Michael Russell in the Second Round yesterday and I do think the Colombian will make life very tough for Harrison in this one.

Can he do enough to win? I think it is entirely possible, although for just a small interest.


Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Denis Istomin: I have picked Denis Istomin twice this week and he has come good by winning both matches without dropping a set and has shown some solid form.

However, he is going to have an altogether different challenge in the form of Kevin Anderson who served very effectively in his win over Matthew Ebden to open his tournament here in Atlanta.

Anderson can put a lot of pressure on his opponents when he is serving as well as he did yesterday and anything similar will give him a very strong chance to see of Istomin in this one. And the Uzbekistan player has to be careful that he isn't as generous on his own serve as he was in the opening set against Yen-Hsun Lu last night.

Istomin threw in too many double faults in that match, while his second serve points won were below par- anything similar against Anderson will make it tough for him to get back into the match.

The hard courts in North America certainly do see the best of Istomin's game as the speed of the court makes his game more dangerous. I think he can force a tie-break in one set, but Anderson may be a little too strong overall and record a 76, 63 win.


MY PICKS: Victor Hanescu @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Albert Montanes @ 2.40 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
James Blake + 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo @ 2.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-8, + 7.82 Units (42 Units Staked, + 18.62% Yield)