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Saturday, 20 July 2013

Tennis Picks 2013 (July 20th)

It wasn't the best Friday for the picks as they went 2-2, while one of my outright picks this week, Tommy Haas, was beaten in the Quarter Final.

At least Kevin Anderson is still rolling in Bogota as we reach the Semi Final at all of the events this week.

Nicolas Almagro - 1.5 games v Fabio Fognini: Fabio Fognini is playing about as well as he has ever done in his career and he has followed his first title on the main ATP Tour last week by reaching the Semi Final this week.

Fognini is playing with a lot of confidence and that has been on show all week as he hasn't just come through his three matches, but he has come through with a lot of ease.

However, he is probably facing the most difficult challenge of the week in Nicolas Almagro, a proven clay court player that will try and outlast the Italian as far as he can.

Almagro has come through his matches fairly comfortably this week too, but he will have to play even better if he is to beat Fognini in the form he is in. I do think Almagro will be able to construct points behind his heavy groundstrokes, although Fognini's defence is one of his strengths.

It has been a long couple of weeks for Fognini, but it will be interesting to see how he reacts to the pressure that Almagro will put on him in this Semi Final. I don't doubt Fognini's fitness, but this amount of tennis in a short period of time is not something he will have been used to and I think if Almagro can get a foothold in the match, he should be able to see off an in-form opponent.

Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Federico Delbonis: It hasn't been a great week in terms of performances from Roger Federer, but he has found his way through the draw and is now in a Semi Final with a second title of 2013 looming.

The new racquet is feeling good for Federer, but he is using this as a learning week ahead of big tournaments in Montreal, Cincinnati and the US Open. That has seen him drop a couple of sets in his three wins this week, but I expect this one to a be a little more routine for him.

I believe that Federico Delbonis could be a little overawed in facing Federer for the first time and there were signs that he was looking a little tired in his Quarter Final win over Fernando Verdasco- you couldn't blame him either as he has had to qualify for the tournament here and so has won six matches in the last seven days to get to this stage.

While he has the making of a solid clay court player, Delbonis is still a bit erratic in his play and hasn't quite got the consistency in his game. He hits a lot of flashy winners, but also makes a lot of errors and Federer will have his chances to break serve.

Adrenaline could help Delbonis make one of the sets competitive, but Federer should be able to show his experience and quality in this match to come through 64, 63.

Flavia Pennetta - 2.5 games v Johanna Larsson: Flavia Pennetta may have been a little fortunate to get through an in form Simona Halep in the Second Round, but she could take full advantage by reaching the Final with a win over home favourite Johanna Larsson.

Both players came through their Quarter Final matches comfortably and both will be full of confidence in this one. Larsson reached the Final here in Bastad last year, while Pennetta is getting back to something like her best after an injury affected twelve months.

I do think Pennetta has a little more solidness about her game and that could prove to be the difference between them in this match. Both will create chances on serve to break the other, but I feel a little more comfortable with the Italian on side and I think she is a little tougher mentally of the two.

While Larsson has barely lost games, let alone sets, this week, I believe it will change in this Semi Final and the Bastad crowd will be disappointed that their Swedish hope has not reached the Final for the second year in a row.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Flavia Pennetta - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-9, + 1.08 Units (38 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)

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