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Thursday 4 July 2013

Wimbledon Day 10 Picks 2013- Women's Semi Finals (July 4th)

This crazy Wimbledon tournament almost took another victim on Wednesday as Andy Murray found himself two sets down to Fernando Verdasco on Centre Court. It always looked like a match that could have been turned around by Murray after he earned an early break in the third set, but Verdasco showed a level of consistency he hasn't had on the court for a couple of years at least to force this match to remain close.

The Spaniard may look back at the four chances to break serve in the fourth set that he failed to convert (in fact, Verdasco failed to even make a ball in court during those four points) as the point in which the match turned in Murray's favour for good, but it was a good performance.

It could be a blessing in disguise for Murray as he has been battle hardened with that win, but he is not going to have it much easier in the Semi Final as he faces the big serving Jerzy Janowicz, a player that can take the racquet out of the hands of any opponent he faces.


The other Semi Final is also one that looks very intriguing as Novak Djokovic meets Juan Martin Del Potro in a rematch of the Bronze Medal match from the Olympic Games last summer. Del Potro was particularly impressive in his win over David Ferrer and the last couple of shots were so reminiscent of the kind of tennis he played to win the US Open in 2009.

It is a match that Djokovic will not take easy, but the bigger issue may be how Del Potro's knee is holding up in a couple of days after another major fall on Wednesday. However, if he serves as big as he did on Wednesday, he is going to make life very tough for the World Number 1.


One last piece of news that may have escaped the attention of some people out there is the fact that Roger Federer is entering a couple of clay court events in the coming month. This is a real surprise from a player that has generally taken six weeks off between Wimbledon and the North American hard court swing, but I can understand why he has made the decision he has.

The first reason has to be to improve his own confidence and form by entering a couple of tournaments that won't feature the other big three names on the ATP Tour and are therefore winnable events for Federer. His early exit at Wimbledon has some questioning Federer's ability to get back to the top of the men's game, but he could build some form going into the next two Masters tournaments and the US Open by showing he is still capable of winning titles.

The other reason I see is Federer must be convinced he needs to improve his Ranking which is going to drop to Number 5 in the world on Monday. That would mean he could potentially have to beat Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic to win the US Open and so he will clearly want to get back into the top four.

Rafael Nadal doesn't have points to defend in the coming months so is likely to move up to Number 3 sooner rather than later as long as his knee issue from Wimbledon hasn't flared up. That means Federer is looking to overtake David Ferrer in the coming weeks to ensure his seeding at the US Open will give him a chance to win another Major.


It is Women's Semi Finals day at Wimbledon and both Semi Finals look competitive affairs. There will be plenty of nerves and tension on display as none of the four remaining players have won a Grand Slam previously and I would think that all four will believe this is their best shot to win one in their career.


Marion Bartoli - 2.5 games v Kirsten Flipkens: The most surprising name in the Semi Finals in the Women's draw has to be Kirsten Flipkens, but there will be a lot of belief in the Belgian players camp that she can make it through to her maiden Grand Slam Final.

You will hear this a lot tomorrow, but this time last year, Flipkens didn't have a high enough Ranking to enter qualifying for Wimbledon and now is a top 20 player.

However, she has been able to take advantage of a draw that has been very kind, while Petra Kvitova was feeling the effects of an illness in the Quarter Final. Before that win, Flipkens had beaten players with an average Ranking of 91 and Marion Bartoli could be the toughest test she has had.

Bartoli hasn't dropped a set in the tournament and she has a very consistent game that could wear down Flipkens in this Semi Final. The Frenchwoman will have experience on her side as a former Wimbledon Finalist and she won't make the errors that Kvitova made in the Quarter Final and will force Flipkens to earn every point.

I feel there is going to be a little more coming from the Bartoli racquet throughout this match and while it won't be a blowout, I do expect Bartoli to win 75 64.


Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: So far in this tournament, I have backed Sabine Lisicki three times and she has come up trumps each time and there is no reason to jump off the bandwagon in this Semi Final.

The German is playing with a lot of confident and always had a lot of belief in her game on the grass courts. She has a big serve that will give her a few easier points and she has heavy groundstrokes that will be able to penetrate her opponents defences.

I also have an issue with Agnieszka Radwanska's knee injury, one that saw her rolling in her serve against Na Li in the last Round. If she has to do that again, Sabine Lisicki will certainly be able to play 'first strike' tennis and look to dominate her Polish opponent.

While the movement wasn't hampered as much as I thought it might, Radwanska will still be put under pressure and I just feel she is going to struggle to cope with a confident opponent. The higher seeded player also admitted that the amount of tennis she has played over the last week has taken a toll on her body and Radwanska has had to go to three sets in each of her last three matches.

Unless nerves get the better of Lisicki, I think she is good enough to win this one 64, 64.


MY PICKS: Marion Bartoli - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 20-11, + 18.12 Units (60 Units Staked, + 30.20% Yield)

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