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Saturday, 6 July 2013

Wimbledon Day 13 Picks 2013- Men's Final (July 7th)

After a couple of weeks full of surprises and some fabulous tennis, no more so than the Semi Final between Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro, this is the Men's Final that everyone would have wanted to see.

Britain's Andy Murray will get his second crack at winning the Wimbledon title that has eluded British Men for over 75 years, but he faces the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic in what looks a cracking match.

Unlike the Woman's Final, both of these players are very secure in their game and are used to playing the biggest matches so it would be more than a surprise if the match is decided because one of them are too nervous to perform as Sabine Lisicki was.

These two players will know each other very well as they have played one another since they were kids and have already had 18 professional matches against one another. Surprisingly, as the top two players in the World Rankings, these two players have only met once this season when Novak Djokovic beat Andy Murray in four sets at the Australian Open.

Andy Murray will have his supporters as he has won two tournaments in a row on the grass going back to last year and will know more about the pressure having played in a Wimbledon Final last year and also having won his first Grand Slam title at the US Open last September, beating this same opponent in five sets.

However, I was adamant that Murray received the benefit of playing his Semi Final first at Flushing Meadows, which has proven to be a difference maker in the Final there over the last few years. Novak Djokovic is 3-0 in Grand Slam matches against Murray outside of that Final at the US Open, although all of those matches have been played at the Australian Open.

I know Murray beat Djokovic at the Olympic Games in a best of three match on the grass courts last summer, but like a lot of their matches, it was much closer than the straight sets victory for Murray would indicate.

At the start of the tournament, I picked Novak Djokovic to win this tournament and I won't change my mind now. He has looked like a man that has wanted to right what he felt was the wrong of failing to win the French Open and I just have a little more faith in his game at the crunch times compared with Andy Murray's. The second serve is the key shot for both of these players and I expect Djokovic to secure more points on his own than Murray will when it comes to his second serve and that could prove to be the difference on the day.

Both players will have their time dominating the match and the mental fatigue could be a factor as the hours tick on, but I like Djokovic on that level too so will stick with my pre-tournament pick in this one.

The match should be closely contested, but the first pick I will make from this one is Novak Djokovic to win 3-1 in sets. I can see the first two sets being really close and split between the players, but Djokovic has shown the ability to move away from Murray in big matches and that could be the case again.

The last four matches between these players has seen both men win at least one set and I would be surprised if either is to win this one in straight sets. I just have a little more belief in the mental ability of Djokovic to overcome the moments of crisis and come through in four sets.

I also think it could be worth backing Andy Murray over 2.5 double faults- while Murray has got a very high percentage of first serves in during his last two matches, he might be forced to go for a bit more against one of the best returners of all time in the Men's game. There is little doubt that Murray's second serve is one of the weakest shots in his game and if he is forced to push on those, which could happen if Djokovic starts getting a read on that ball, then there is every chance Murray would hand over a few cheap points.

Murray has had 13 double faults in the last four matches against Djokovic and we have seen him drop sets twice in his last two matches with a double fault against far less effective returners than the World Number 1 and the pressure that he can apply.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic Win 3-1 @ 4.33 Bet 365 (1 Unit)
Andy Murray Over 2.5 Double Faults @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 22-15, + 16.02 Units (70 Units Staked, + 22.89% Yield)

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