Featured post

Boxing Picks 2024- Anthony Joshua vs Francis Ngannou (March 8th)

Knockout Chaos comes to our television screens on Friday evening with another big card put together by Saudi Arabia, who continue to have a ...

Tuesday 23 July 2013

Tennis Picks 2013 (July 23rd)

It was a slow start to the tournaments on Monday as rain affected the events in Gstaad and Atlanta and the forecast for the rest of the week at most of the events suggest there will be rain delays as a common factor.

The outright picks from Atlanta and Gstaad have been made and can be read here.


The picks went 1-1 yesterday and while the play on Albert Ramos was a terrible call, Mikhail Youzhny should have been a much easier winner in his victory over Paul-Henri Mathieu than it turned out to be. He essentially dominated the match, but didn't take his chances to win the match in straight sets, although he did enough to cover the spread to level the picks up.


Dustin Brown + 3.5 games v Victor Hanescu: Dustin Brown has qualified for the main draw in Gstaad again after reaching the Second Round here last season and I think he can cause some problems for even a clay court specialist like Victor Hanescu.

The conditions in this part of Switzerland won't be a surprise for Brown after he won two qualifying matches to get through to the main draw and his style of play could be awkward for Hanescu to deal with.

I won't dispute the fact that Brown is not the best returner of serve and will win fewer points against the Hanescu serve than the other way round, but there is a real chance that the German will find a way to steal a set.

Even if he doesn't, Brown can certainly make this a close match with every chance of getting a tie-break on board and the spread could be a touch high if Hanescu is even a little erratic with his play.


Robin Haase - 3.5 games v Joao Souza: Joao Souza has performed well in the level below the main ATP tournaments this season, and over the last few seasons, but he will certainly be a little more confident he can go somewhere this week after qualifying for the main draw.

He is facing an opponent that can be erratic at the best of times, but Robin Haase has generally been too good for the players that ply their talent at the Challenger level.

Haase had a couple of tough matches last week in Hamburg after reaching the Final in a Challenger event the week before. Most of the Dutchman's successes on the ATP Tour have come on the clay courts as he has a decent serve and can follow that up with heavy groundstrokes.

As long as he has had enough rest over the last few days, I like Haase to win this one in straight sets, likely 64, 63.


Tommy Robredo - 3.5 games v Jan Hajek: Tommy Robredo has been in poor form over the last couple of tournaments back on his favoured clay court surface as he has suffered defeat in the first match he has played in Hamburg and Bastad.

That means Robredo has lost three matches in a row, but he has generally had a good season on the clay and has one title to his name from Casablance. I expect a better performance against an opponent like Jan Hajek who will be forced to work hard for all the points he wants to earn.

Hajek is fresh off a decent performance against Roger Federer last week, but he is a player that isn't used to playing at this level like Robredo is. The Czech player has not exactly pulled up trees with his performances on the Challenger level on clay courts and this is a tough match for him if Robredo can recover his form.

I would expect Robredo to come through with a 64, 64 scoreline.


Florian Mayer - 3.5 games v Blaz Kavcic: With a serve that can be a little weak at times, Florian Mayer will give his opponents some chances in matches against him. However, the variation of spin and attacking the net can also throw opponents off their game as they are just not sure of what to expect from ball to ball.

That variation has caused problems for better players than Blaz Kavcic, although the latter has won three qualifying rounds to get through to the main draw and has to be confident of his chances.

Kavcic had a decent win over Victor Hanescu last week after qualifying for the tournament in Hamburg and he has put in some solid performances against higher Ranked players. However, he has generally struggled in main Tour events and I think Mayer's different type of game will surprise him here and lead to a 75, 64 win for the German.


Denis Istomin - 2.5 games v Lukas Lacko: Every time I have watched Denis Istomin play, he has either looked like a player that will be able to reach the top 20 in the World Rankings, or he has played like he has barely picked up a racquet in his life.

The North American hard courts should certainly favour his game as he has a decent serve and a heavy forehand and he has a strong record against Lukas Lacko who has had a disappointing year on the Tour so far.

Much like Istomin, Lacko's level of play fluctuates between the sublime and the terrible and it can be hard to predict what you are going to get from him.

Lacko did reach the Final of a Challenger tournament in Canada last week and he also has a Semi Final in another Challenger in South Africa, while he began the year with Quarter Final appearances on the main Tour on the hard courts of Doha and Auckland.

Out of the two players, Istomin has the bigger serve and I think that will lead to the difference in the match. I expect Istomin will be able to win a few more cheaper points and should be able to hold on to serve more effectively than Lacko and it could be tough for the Slovakian to hold off the charge.

As long as Istomin remains focused, he could take advantage of Lacko who has played plenty of tennis last week and I expect the Uzbekistan player to come through 76, 64.


James Blake v Tim Smyczek: Tim Smyczek has won three matches to qualify for the main draw in Atlanta and will certainly feel confident in his chances of beating the veteran James Blake.

However, I don't think Blake is ready to be an underdog against an opponent like Smyczek on the American hard courts and that is why I like the chances of the older man to progress through to the Second Round.

The majority of Blake's successes on the Tour come on the hard courts and he is still capable of beating players like Smyczek that spend most of their time on the Challenger circuit.

Blake beat Ryan Harrison here in Atlanta last year, a big surprise at the time, and I think he still has a big enough game to win matches like this. He can be erratic at times and the consistency in his game is not as it was when he reached the Number 4 position in the World Rankings, but I think he can find a way to get through in three sets.


MY PICKS: Dustin Brown + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Robin Haase - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Tommy Robredo - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Florian Mayer - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denis Istomin - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, + 0.10 Units (4 Units Staked, + 2.5% Yield)

No comments:

Post a Comment