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Friday, 29 March 2013

Tennis Picks Miami 2013 (March 29th)

While I no longer have any interest in the outright market when it comes to the Men's event, I am quite happy to see that my 'boring' picks from the Women's game have paid dividends with both Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova competing in the Final to take place on Saturday.

There are also a couple of decent looking Semi Finals to be played in the Men's tournament today and I do think both will produce some entertaining tennis, although it is clear that Andy Murray is the big favourite to take home the title on Sunday.

David Ferrer - 2.5 games v Tommy Haas: I have been impressed with Tommy Haas' run here in Miami as he has been playing some very good tennis, but I do believe that run will be ended by David Ferrer in the first of the Semi Finals to be played.

David Ferrer is capable of staying out on court all day and while Haas definitely has the edge when it comes to the backhand stroke, I think the Spaniard can drag him into deep water before putting him away. I also expect Haas will be the one winning 'cheaper' points on his serve, although I don't think Ferrer will be making too many mistakes and that is where I think he can get ahead.

With the movement favouring Ferrer, I think Haas may feel he has to go for more lines on a mental level and that can lead to more unforced errors. The net play will certainly help the German shorten points and put away any chips that Ferrer uses, but it is tough to continue playing that aggressive tennis against a player that can turn defence into attack as effectively as Ferrer can.

It may go three sets, but I expect to see Ferrer in the Final on Sunday possibly after recording a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win.

Richard Gasquet + 4.5 games v Andy Murray: It would have taken one more hold of serve from Marin Cilic yesterday to have seen the cover come in, but Andy Murray was returning very effectively and that is a concern for this match.

However, I think Richard Gasquet has been playing some very good tennis this past ten days and I do think he can at least keep this match close. It wouldn't be the first time as Gasquet has found a way to stay with Andy Murray in past matches and has only been seen off when he mentally and physically fatigues as matches progress.

There is no doubt that Gasquet has the talent to take it to the top players, although he has struggled to match the intensity over a best of five set match at Grand Slam level. That is not always the case in the best in three matches where Gasquet can play enough quality tennis to see himself over the line.

I thought Marin Cilic may have been capable of taking a set off of Andy Murray yesterday and I have the same thought about Richard Gasquet in this one. He is certainly capable with the way the Frenchman has played this week, although I do think Murray has his game face on too with the knowledge that he will move up to World Number 2 if he can go on and win this tournament.

My feeling is that this is going to go the distance and I think taking the games with Gasquet looks to be the best call.

MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-10, + 11.14 Units (52 Units Staked, + 21.42% Yield)

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