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Saturday, 2 March 2013

Tennis Picks (March 2nd)

We have reached the business end of the tournaments for this week as players begin to turn their attentions to the first Masters event of the season at Indian Wells. That is a joint-tournament held by the ATP and the WTA Tours as the next two events are held in North America at Indian Wells and Miami.

Yesterday it was looking like being a frustrating day all in all as Novak Djokovic served for the match, and covering the spread, but failed to see it out and ended up falling under the spread by half a game. It then felt a little bit worse watching Tommy Haas take a 4-0 lead, miss break points for 5-1 and only take the first set on the tie-break.

Haas won the final set of his match 6-1, but lost the second set 6-2 meaning he was another player that fell under the spread from a big winning position.

However, things changed at Acapulco as David Ferrer lost the second set on a tie-break but beat Fabio Fognini 6-1 in the third to just get on the right side of a cover, while both Sara Errani and Nicolas Almagro covered in their matches.

All that means that the week is currently in a small profit and should come close to making it three straight winning weeks with a touch of luck in the final couple of days. The only outright pick I made at the start of the week was David Ferrer to win in Acapulco and he has made it through to the Final. However, I do think Rafael Nadal has been playing the better tennis of the two even if I'll let the Ferrer unit ride in the match.

John Isner - 3.5 games v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: I am surprised that Edouard Roger-Vasselin has reached the Semi Final here at Delray Beach, although he hasn't faced anyone as good as John Isner so far this week and this is where the Frenchman's tournament is likely to end.

John Isner missed the Australian Open through injury this season and he is clearly just getting back to his peak game after a couple of rather disappointing weeks on the indoor hard courts. However, he has played well this week to come through the first three Rounds and his performances have arguably been getting better.

He does have a lot of points to defend in Indian Wells next week after reaching the Final there last season, but that isn't the concern as Isner looks to get some sort of form back and I think his serve is going to cause Roger-Vasselin some real problems.

Isner should have chances to break the Roger-Vasselin serve in each set and it is also entirely possible he could take one set in a tie-break and then grab a couple of breaks of serve once his opponent thinks he has a big mountain to climb. Personally I would guess that Isner has a break more in each set to record a 6-4, 6-4 win in this Semi Final.

MY PICKS: John Isner - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-10-1, + 2.60 Units (42 Units Staked, + 6.19% Yield)

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