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Monday, 11 March 2013

Tennis Picks Indian Wells 2013 (March 11th)

It has been a tough start to the week for a number of the seeds with a few dropping out and others struggling to get through the opening matches.

However, it is important they have made it through as both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray needed three sets to get through their first match here- at the end of the day, it is the players that struggle through one Round that can find their form later on and go on to win these big events.

On a personal level, it has been a very successful first few days of the tournaments as the picks have kept on ending up in the winner's enclosure and that has led to plenty of positive results to start the event. Yesterday, both picks came in and that has improved the overall weekly record to 11 winners from the first 13 picks.

However, it is not wise to get complacent or cocky and I just hope things continue in the manner they are.

Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Jarkko Nieminen: Kevin Anderson earned a big Second Round win over David Ferrer and can take advantage of opening up this section by knocking out the highest seeded player.

He has a good match up against Jarkko Nieminen in this one having beaten him on all three previous occasions they have played. Nieminen got through the last Round thanks to an under-par performance from Fernando Verdasco who has been struggling with a neck injury that has seen him miss a few weeks on the Tour.

The difference between Anderson and Nieminen is clearly the serve, but the Finn does have a habit of throwing in a truly terrible service game in per set and I think that is where Anderson can take advantage. I do expect Anderson to have fewer problems holding serve and this match has all the makings of a 6-3, 7-6 win for the South African.

Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: It was a good first match back on the hard courts for Rafael Nadal as he saw off Ryan Harrison, and I think he can back that up with another win here as long as the knees haven't had an adverse reaction over the last couple of days.

The match up with Leonardo Mayer is a good one for Rafael Nadal who has beaten him twice in the last twelve months, both times fairly comfortably. Mayer's best performances have usually come on the clay courts too and I think this will be a really tough match for him.

Nadal is looking a little tentative on the court at the moment, mainly because I don't think he truly knows how he will react to the surface, but I do think he comes through with a double break in one of the sets and finishes with a 6-2, 6-4 win.

Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Andreas Seppi: I am going to continue to ride the form that Ernests Gulbis has been showing over the last month and I think he will be a little too good for Andreas Seppi, although the Italian is also a far more solid player these days.

Gulbis has admitted he is a little tired with the amount of tennis he has been playing, but you would never have guessed that as he dismantled Janko Tipsarevic in the Second Round. The day off between matches is working for him here at Indian Wells and he has all the tools to see off Andreas Seppi as there just aren't too many weaknesses in the Gulbis game when he is on fire.

I do like the way Seppi has become a much more solid player these days, but the second serve remains a weakness and he was a little fortunate at times against Daniel Brands in the last Round. He will give Gulbis chances and I think the Latvian is in the form to take advantage of those at the moment.

I like Gulbis to come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win in this one.

Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: I was surprised that Jerzy Janowicz was looking as tired as he was at times in the last Round against David Nalbandian and I think he will be feeling the pressure in this match against Richard Gasquet.

While Janowicz has a monster of a serve, he can be vulnerable in long rallies and I think Gasquet certainly has the edge when it comes to the groundstrokes, particularly when it develops into those rallies concentrating on the backhand.

I think Gasquet is going to be able to exert some pressure on the Janowicz serve and will be able to look after his own more often than not to get himself into a position where a 6-3, 7-6 win could be on the cards.

Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Ivan Dodig: Roger Federer was imperious in his Second Round win over Denis Istomin and I think he will record a similar win over Ivan Dodig in this Third Round match.

Dodig is probably best known for beating Rafael Nadal at the Canada Masters a couple of years ago and certainly has a serve that can win him a lot of cheap points. However, he can be a bit predictable with that serve and I am expecting Roger Federer to get a read on it and force Dodig to beat him in rallies.

That will happen on occasion, but I would expect Federer to dominate the majority of those rallies and he was serving very effectively against Istomin to think he should be looking after that aspect of the match.

I am expecting Federer to find a double break in one of the sets and I think he comes through 6-4, 6-2 in this one.

MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-2, + 16.58 Units (25 Units Staked, + 66.32% Yield)

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