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Wednesday, 27 March 2013

Tennis Picks Miami 2013 (March 27th)

Hands up if you thought Tommy Haas would give Novak Djokovic a lot of problems, let alone actually beat the World Number 1? Unsurprisingly, I don't see too many hands but that was the situation last night as Haas played some outstanding tennis to knock off the Serb.

It was Haas that was the more comfortable throughout the match and his serving statistics were off the chart as the best returner in the Men's game could not put enough pressure on him. It just goes to show that Tommy Haas is still a very capable player on his day, although I don't know how he will follow that up as we get to the Quarter Final stage.

The upset also means my main outright pick this week, Novak Djokovic, is out of the tournament and I have only a couple of runners left. Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova should be in a decent position in the Women's draw, but it is Andy Murray, not Tomas Berdych, that is the most likely to take advantage of Djokovic's exit.

Tommy Haas - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: I usually avoid, or go against, players that have put together a huge win and then have to return to the court soon after, but Tommy Haas is an experienced player. The German is a former World Number 2 and has reached the latter stages of tournaments in his career so I am expecting him to be focused on reaching the Semi Final here.

I like his match up against Gilles Simon as Haas is very comfortable getting into the net off attacking shots and I think his aggression will put him on the front foot in this one. Simon is very consistent, but I think Haas can cut off some of the longer rallies by volleying away some of the chipped and loopy shots that Simon can begin playing when feeling he is defending.

The serve should favour Haas a little more in the contest and I think it is not a big surprise that the German has a 4-1 head to head record, including a couple of wins last season. As long as Haas doesn't suffer a letdown moment, I think he will be a little too strong and will be in the Semi Final.

Roberta Vinci v Jelena Jankovic: I know Jelena Jankovic is the bigger name in this match, but I am a little surprised that Roberta Vinci is the underdog as I think she has shown more consistency over the last twelve months.

In that time, Vinci has beaten Jankovic twice, both on the hard courts, and I think the Italian has the consistency to give Jankovic fits in this one. The problem for Jankovic is that she is still not sure whether she needs to be more aggressive or whether she should go back to the defensive game that took her to the very top of the Women's game.

Unfortunately, Jankovic has been by-passed by a number of players on the Tour, including Vinci, and I do think this is a match that will feature a fair few breaks of serve before falling the way of the underdog.

MY PICKS: Tommy Haas - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 15-7, + 15.30 Units (44 Units Staked, + 34.77% Yield)

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