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Tuesday, 26 March 2013

Tennis Picks Miami 2013 (March 26th)

For the second time in two tournaments, I had one of the outright picks fall away thanks to a retirement before a ball had been hit- Milos Raonic was apparently suffering with a fever and couldn't even attempt to play his Third Round match against Sam Querrey.

It could have been a terrible day for the outright picks, but both Tomas Berdych and Serena Williams dug very deep to get themselves into the next stage of their own tournaments. That means there are still four of the five outright picks running as we get into the home run for the event here in Miami so I can't be too disappointed about that.

On another note, the streak of winners came to an end at 10 when the picks went 1-1 yesterday... While it isn't a streak to rival the Miami Heat or the Undertaker at Wrestlemania, it is one that has put the picks into a very good profit and I hope to at least maintain that in the final few days.

Today there is a lot of tennis in the Men's event as the whole Fourth Round is played together, while the Women's event will set one of their Semi Final matches.

Nicolas Almagro v Richard Gasquet: This should be a very good match to watch as both of these men have great one-handed backhands and I think it will be a close contest.

However, I like the underdog Spaniard to perhaps come through as I feel he has the slightly more effective serve, while he is more than capable of rallying with Richard Gasquet who spends a lot of his time behind the baseline.

Gasquet will be the more likely to get into the net and pressure Nicolas Almagro, but the court isn't playing so fast that Almagro won't be able to find some passing shots.

Both players are playing at a decent level at the moment, and both may seriously be considering a run that could end up seeing them play in London at the End of Year Championships in November. I just feel Almagro is the slightly more consistent of the two players and the serve will give him a few more cheap points and that is why I like the underdog in this one.

Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Sam Querrey: It hasn't been a great week for Tomas Berdych in terms of the amount of tennis he has had to play to reach the Fourth Round, but the fact that he is still in the tournament shows the amount of toughness he has mentally these days. That is especially the case against opponents he should beat and I think he will be able to take of Sam Querrey in this match, even though the American was given a walkover last night and will be extremely fresh.

However, Querrey's game is a little easier to read than someone as enigmatic as Alejandro Falla, especially the way the Colombian played in the first two sets last night. Querrey does have the big serve that will win a lot of cheap points, but I think Berdych will be a little more comfortable with the style of play that the American will produce and I think he will feel in better rhythm in the match

I am not surprised that Berdych has won 4 of the 5 previous matches, including all 3 last season and they have all been fairly routine for the higher seeded player. I expect this one will be similar.

Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Andreas Seppi: These two players haven't met on the Tour for three seasons, and while Andreas Seppi is a much more solid player than those days, I still think it is asking a lot for him in this match with Andy Murray.

The serve is still not a great stroke for Seppi and I think he will be struggling on that side of things if Murray has his eye in, much like when Novak Djokovic dismissed the Italian in two easy sets in Dubai.

Seppi is definitely a more solid player these days, but I would be surprised with anything other than a fairly straight-forward win for Murray and I like his chances to record a 6-4, 6-2 win.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro @ 2.20 Stan James (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-6, + 13.40 Units (38 Units Staked, + 35.26% Yield)

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